Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

The three-dimensional (3D) printed bone tissue repair guide scaffold is considered a promising method for treating bone defect repair. In this experiment, chitosan (CS), sodium alginate (SA), and mineralized collagen (MC) were combined and 3D printed to form scaffolds. The experimental results showed that the printability of the scaffold was improved with the increase of chitosan concentration. Infrared spectroscopy analysis confirmed that the scaffold formed a cross-linked network through electrostatic interaction between chitosan and sodium alginate under acidic conditions, and X-ray diffraction results showed the presence of characteristic peaks of hydroxyapatite, indicating the incorporation of mineralized collagen into the scaffold system. In the in vitro collagen release experiments, a weakly alkaline environment was found to accelerate the release rate of collagen, and the release amount increased significantly with a lower concentration of chitosan. Cell experiments showed that scaffolds loaded with mineralized collagen could significantly promote cell proliferation activity and alkaline phosphatase expression. The subcutaneous implantation experiment further verified the biocompatibility of the material, and the implantation of printed scaffolds did not cause significant inflammatory reactions. Histological analysis showed no abnormal pathological changes in the surrounding tissues. Therefore, incorporating mineralized collagen into sodium alginate/chitosan scaffolds is believed to be a new tissue engineering and regeneration strategy for achieving enhanced osteogenic differentiation through the slow release of collagen.
Chitosan/chemistry* ; Alginates/chemistry* ; Tissue Scaffolds/chemistry* ; Printing, Three-Dimensional ; Osteogenesis ; Collagen/chemistry* ; Cell Differentiation ; Animals ; Tissue Engineering/methods* ; Cell Proliferation ; Biocompatible Materials ; Glucuronic Acid/chemistry* ; Hexuronic Acids/chemistry*

Objective:To explore the impact of whole blood organophosphate esters (OPEs) flame retardant exposure on thyroid function-related hormones in healthy older adults.Methods:In this panel study, five repeated population-based epidemiological surveys and biological sample collection were conducted from September 2018 to January 2019, with 76 healthy older adults aged 60-69 years in the Dianliu Community of Jinan, Shandong Province. Information on the sociodemographic characteristics, diet, and health status of the respondents was systematically gathered through questionnaires and physical examinations. Fasting venous blood was collected to determine the levels of OPEs, thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), triiodothyronine (T 3), and thyroxine (T 4). A linear mixed-effects model was used to analyze the impact of OPEs exposure on thyroid function-related hormones in healthy older adults. Results:Each of the 76 subjects participated in at least two follow-up visits, resulting in a total of 350 person visits. The age of the study participants was (65.07±2.76) years, with 38 participants of both sexes. A total of eight OPEs were included with a detection rate exceeding 50%, and the M ( Q 1, Q3) for ∑OPEs was 3.85 (2.33, 5.74) ng/ml, with alkyl-OPEs being the major type of OPEs with an M ( Q 1, Q3) of 1.27 (0.64, 2.50) ng/ml. The M ( Q 1, Q3) for TSH, T 3, and T 4 was 3.74 (2.55, 5.69) μIU/ml, 1.32 (1.10, 1.60) ng/ml, and 45.04 (36.96, 53.27) ng/ml, respectively. Linear mixed-effects model showed that TSH was significantly decreased by 9.93% (95% CI:-15.17%, -4.36%) and 11.14% (95% CI:-15.94%, -6.06%) in older adults for each quartile level increase in TnBP and TEHP exposures, respectively. Gender-stratified analysis indicated that TEHP exposure was negatively associated with TSH levels in male older adults, whereas a decrease in TSH levels among female older adults was associated with TnBP exposure. Conclusion:Exposure to whole blood OPEs is associated with decreased TSH levels among healthy older adults, with notable gender differences.

Objective:To explore the impact of whole blood organophosphate esters (OPEs) flame retardant exposure on thyroid function-related hormones in healthy older adults.Methods:In this panel study, five repeated population-based epidemiological surveys and biological sample collection were conducted from September 2018 to January 2019, with 76 healthy older adults aged 60-69 years in the Dianliu Community of Jinan, Shandong Province. Information on the sociodemographic characteristics, diet, and health status of the respondents was systematically gathered through questionnaires and physical examinations. Fasting venous blood was collected to determine the levels of OPEs, thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), triiodothyronine (T 3), and thyroxine (T 4). A linear mixed-effects model was used to analyze the impact of OPEs exposure on thyroid function-related hormones in healthy older adults. Results:Each of the 76 subjects participated in at least two follow-up visits, resulting in a total of 350 person visits. The age of the study participants was (65.07±2.76) years, with 38 participants of both sexes. A total of eight OPEs were included with a detection rate exceeding 50%, and the M ( Q 1, Q3) for ∑OPEs was 3.85 (2.33, 5.74) ng/ml, with alkyl-OPEs being the major type of OPEs with an M ( Q 1, Q3) of 1.27 (0.64, 2.50) ng/ml. The M ( Q 1, Q3) for TSH, T 3, and T 4 was 3.74 (2.55, 5.69) μIU/ml, 1.32 (1.10, 1.60) ng/ml, and 45.04 (36.96, 53.27) ng/ml, respectively. Linear mixed-effects model showed that TSH was significantly decreased by 9.93% (95% CI:-15.17%, -4.36%) and 11.14% (95% CI:-15.94%, -6.06%) in older adults for each quartile level increase in TnBP and TEHP exposures, respectively. Gender-stratified analysis indicated that TEHP exposure was negatively associated with TSH levels in male older adults, whereas a decrease in TSH levels among female older adults was associated with TnBP exposure. Conclusion:Exposure to whole blood OPEs is associated with decreased TSH levels among healthy older adults, with notable gender differences.

Objective:To construct a remote screening network for breast cancer based on automated breast ultrasound (ABUS) and explore the value of ABUS with remote reading for breast cancer screening.Methods:We constructed a remote breast cancer screening network including one remote reading center and 48 image-acquisition centers. We recruited women to participate in breast cancer screening at one of these image-acquisition centers from January 2021 to January 2023. The technicians collected the whole breast images using the ABUS. The images were then sent to the reading center through the PVBUS System and interpreted independently by two radiologists using the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS). BI-RADS categories 1 and 2 indicate negative screening results, and women diagnosed with these categories were recommended for annual breast ultrasound screening. BI-RADS categories 3, 4, and 5 indicate positive results. Women with BI-RADS category 3 lesions were recommended for follow-up examinations every 6 months using ABUS or handheld ultrasound, while those with BI-RADS 4 and 5 lesions were suggested to undergo pathological examinations.Results:In our study, we enrolled 10 344 women who completed the ABUS screening and were followed up for more than 12 months. After remote reading, 6 164 women were diagnosed with BI-RADS category 1 and 2 626 woman were within BI-RADS category 2. In contrast, 1 404 women were within BI-RADS category 3, a total of 135 women were within BI-RADS category 4, and 15 women were within BI-RADS category 5. The positive screening rate of ABUS was 15.0% (1 554/10 344). The ABUS with remote reading had a detection rate of 3.7/1 000 (38/10 344) for breast cancer screening, with a sensitivity of 97.4% (38/39) and a specificity of 85.3% (8 789/10 305). Among the 38 breast cancer cases detected, 92.1% (35/38) were invasive carcinomas, and 63.2% (24/38) were stage 0 or Ⅰ breast cancers.Conclusions:Breast cancer screening based on ABUS with remote reading provided an efficient and feasible solution to the problem of unevenly distributed medical resources and medical staff levels in various regions of China, enabling the decentralization of high-quality medical resources and improving the accessibility of high-quality screening services. It has provided an alternative for breast cancer screening in China.

OBJECTIVE To construct a risk prediction model for bloodstream infection （BSI） induced by carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae （CRKP）. METHODS Retrospective analysis was conducted for clinical data from 253 patients with BSI induced by K. pneumoniae in the First Hospital of Qinhuangdao from January 2019 to June 2022. Patients admitted from January 2019 to December 2021 were selected as the model group （n＝223）， and patients admitted from January 2022 to June 2022 were selected as the validation group （n＝30）. The model group was divided into the CRKP subgroup （n＝56） and the carbapenem- sensitive K. pneumoniae （CSKP） subgroup （n＝167） based on whether CRKP was detected or not. The univariate and multivariate Logistic analyses were performed on basic information such as gender， age and comorbid underlying diseases in two subgroups of patients； independent risk factors were screened for CRKP-induced BSI， and a risk prediction model was constructed. The established model was verified with patients in the validation group as the target. RESULTS Admissioning to intensive care unit （ICU）， use of immunosuppressants， empirical use of carbapenems and empirical use of antibiotics against Gram-positive coccus were independent risk factors of CRKP-induced BSI （ORs were 3.749， 3.074， 2.909， 9.419， 95%CIs were 1.639-8.572， 1.292- 7.312， 1.180-7.717， 2.877-30.840， P＜0.05）. Based on this， a risk prediction model was established with a P value of 0.365. The AUC of the receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve of the model was 0.848 [95%CI （0.779， 0.916）， P＜0.001]， and the critical score was 6.5. In the validation group， the overall accuracy of the prediction under the model was 86.67%， and the AUC of ROC curve was 0.926 [95%CI （0.809， 1.000]， P＜0.001]. CONCLUSIONS Admission to ICU， use of immunosuppressants， empirical use of carbapenems and empirical use of antibiotics against Gram-positive coccus are independent risk factors of CRKP- induced BSI. The CRKP-induced BSI risk prediction model based on the above factors has good prediction accuracy.

Objective To construct and identify a patient-derived organoid model,and to investigate the sensitivity of chemotherapy drugs using this model.Methods Pancreatic cancer cells were obtained from the surgical specimens of two female patients with a confirmed diagnosis of pancreatic cancer after tumor tissue digestion,and then the cells were inoculated into a culture dish using matrigel for three-dimensional culture.Paraffin sections were prepared for HE staining and immunohistochemical staining and were compared with the parent tumor tissue to determine whether the histopathological features of the tumor in vivo were preserved.The pancreatic cancer organoids were treated with seven chemotherapy drugs at different concentrations;Cell Titer-Glo?3D reagent was used to measure cell viability,and the results of drug sensitivity were analyzed.Results Two patient-derived pancreatic cancer organoids were successfully constructed,and HE staining and immunohistochemical staining showed that the pancreatic cancer organoids had consistent histopathological features with the tumors of the corresponding patient.Both pancreatic cancer organoids were more sensitive to gemcitabine monotherapy and the combination of oxaliplatin+SN38+fluorouracil,and patient 1 was more sensitive than patient 2.There were individual differences in the response to drugs between the organoids from different patients.Conclusion The pancreatic cancer organoid model successfully constructed in this study can reflect the histological classification of parent pancreatic tumors and can be used for in vitro chemotherapy drug sensitivity test,which is expected to provide a reference for clinical medication.

Objective:To construct a remote screening network for breast cancer based on automated breast ultrasound (ABUS) and explore the value of ABUS with remote reading for breast cancer screening.Methods:We constructed a remote breast cancer screening network including one remote reading center and 48 image-acquisition centers. We recruited women to participate in breast cancer screening at one of these image-acquisition centers from January 2021 to January 2023. The technicians collected the whole breast images using the ABUS. The images were then sent to the reading center through the PVBUS System and interpreted independently by two radiologists using the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS). BI-RADS categories 1 and 2 indicate negative screening results, and women diagnosed with these categories were recommended for annual breast ultrasound screening. BI-RADS categories 3, 4, and 5 indicate positive results. Women with BI-RADS category 3 lesions were recommended for follow-up examinations every 6 months using ABUS or handheld ultrasound, while those with BI-RADS 4 and 5 lesions were suggested to undergo pathological examinations.Results:In our study, we enrolled 10 344 women who completed the ABUS screening and were followed up for more than 12 months. After remote reading, 6 164 women were diagnosed with BI-RADS category 1 and 2 626 woman were within BI-RADS category 2. In contrast, 1 404 women were within BI-RADS category 3, a total of 135 women were within BI-RADS category 4, and 15 women were within BI-RADS category 5. The positive screening rate of ABUS was 15.0% (1 554/10 344). The ABUS with remote reading had a detection rate of 3.7/1 000 (38/10 344) for breast cancer screening, with a sensitivity of 97.4% (38/39) and a specificity of 85.3% (8 789/10 305). Among the 38 breast cancer cases detected, 92.1% (35/38) were invasive carcinomas, and 63.2% (24/38) were stage 0 or Ⅰ breast cancers.Conclusions:Breast cancer screening based on ABUS with remote reading provided an efficient and feasible solution to the problem of unevenly distributed medical resources and medical staff levels in various regions of China, enabling the decentralization of high-quality medical resources and improving the accessibility of high-quality screening services. It has provided an alternative for breast cancer screening in China.

Objective:To observe the clinical efficacy of mouse nerve growth factor (mNGF) combined with rehabilitation on children with global developmental delay(GDD).Methods:It was a prospective multicenter clinical randomized controlled trial (RCT) involving 120 children with GDD admitted to 5 hospitals in China from May 2020 to January 2022.They were randomly divided into mNGF group and conventional rehabilitation group using block randomization method.All children were managed by standardized rehabilitation after recruitment, and those in the mNGF group were additionally given mNGF injections.All subjects were surveyed using the Gesell Development Diagnosis Schedules(GDDS) at baseline, 90 days and 120 days after treatment, and their developmental quotient (DQ) was recorded.Clinical efficacy was analyzed by the paired t-test, rank sum test and Chi- squared test. Results:After 90 days of treatment and the continuous follow-up to 120 days, the increases in the DQ of gross motor (7.520±13.900 vs.0.450±11.459), fine motor (7.800±15.346 vs.1.250±11.581), adaptive behavior (7.730±13.428 vs.2.100±12.022) and personal-social behavior (6.780±11.651 vs.1.780±10.120) than baseline were significantly higher in mNGF group than those of conventional rehabilitation group (all P<0.05). Serious adverse events and important drug-related medical events were not reported. Conclusions:mNGF combined with rehabilitation effectively enhances the development levels of gross motor, fine motor, adaptive behavior and personal-social behavior, and continuously improves the condition of GDD in children with a high safety.

Objective:To investigate the clinical diagnostic value of MRI retention enema cannula enhanced scanning in the high complex anal fistula.Methods:The clinical data of 60 anal fistula patients underwent surgery treatment from May 2020 to May 2022 in Affiliated Hospital of Shanxi University of Traditional Chinese Medicine were retrospectively analyzed. All patients underwent MRI plain scanning and enhanced scanning before operation. Compared with the surgical results, the difference between MRI plain scanning and enhanced scanning in the diagnosis of high complex anal fistula was compared.Results:All of the 60 patients successfully completed surgical treatment, and 58 cases internal orifices, 55 cases complex anal fistulas and 53 cases high anal fistulas were found intraoperatively. MRI plain scanning results showed 32 cases internal orifices, 46 cases complex anal fistulas and 42 cases high anal fistulas were found. MRI enhanced scanning results showed 54 cases internal orifices, 53 cases complex anal fistulas and 50 cases high anal fistulas were found. Based on surgical results, the coincidence rates of internal orifice, complex anal fistula and high anal fistula in MRI enhanced scanning were significantly higher than those in MRI plain scanning: 93.10% (54/58) vs. 55.17% (32/58), 96.36% (53/55) vs. 83.64% (46/55) and 94.34% (50/53) vs. 79.25% (42/53), and there were statistical differences ( χ2 = 21.76, 4.95 and 5.27; P<0.01 or <0.05). Conclusions:The MRI retention enema cannula enhanced scanning has obvious advantages in the diagnosis of high complex anal fistula, which provides scientific reference value for the diagnosis and operation of high complex anal fistula in clinic.