1.Application of SARIMA in predicting outbreaks of hospital-acquired infection in a tertiary psychiatric hospital
Mengwei ZHANG ; Hongwei WANG ; Mei GU ; Lunan XIAO
Chinese Journal of Nosocomiology 2025;35(16):2499-2503
OBJECTIVE To construct a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(SARIMA)model based on the incidences of hospital-acquired infections(HAIs),and provide a reference for the prevention and control of HAI in such hospitals.METHODS The incidences of HAIs in a tertiary psychiatric hospital from Jan.2016 to Aug.2024 were collected by the Weining Hospital Infection Information Management software and paper-based HAI reporting cards.The incidence rates from 2016 to 2023 were analyzed and a SARIMA model was established.The incidence rates from Jan.to Aug.2024 were predicted,and the accuracy of the SARIMA model was evaluated based on the actual measured values.RESULTS From 2016 to 2023,a total of 98,075 patients were admitted,including 936 patients who developed HAIs,with an incidence rate of 0.95%ranged from 0.79%to 1.23%.The time series plot from 2016 to 2023 did not meet the requirements for sequence stability.After differ-entiating the original data,analyzing the correlation plot(ACF)and partial autocorrelation plot(PACF),and con-ducting multiple assessments and verifications,it was finally determined that SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)12,SA-RIM A(1,1,1)(1,1,0)12,ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,0)12,and SARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 were the alterna-tive models.The Ljung-Box Q test was used to retain the models with P>0.05 that met the sequence with white noise and the minimum Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC)value was obtained,it was determined that SARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 was the optimal model.When validated with Jan.to Aug.2024 HAI incidence data,the infection rates predicted by SARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model remained within the 95%confidence interval,indicating high prediction accuracy.CONCLUSION SARIMA model can effectively predict the monthly HAI incidences in a tertiary psychiatric hospital,and it plays an role in the decision-making of HAI prevention and control in psychiatric inpatients.
2.Relationship between collateral circulation and viable myocardium in patients with coronary chronic total occlusion
Yaqi LIU ; Xiaoyu YANG ; Feifei ZHANG ; Bao LIU ; Jianfeng WANG ; Mei XU ; Yuetao WANG ; Xiao-liang SHAO
Chinese Journal of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging 2025;45(10):583-588
Objective:To investigate the relationship between collateral circulation and viable myocardium (VM) in patients with coronary chronic total occlusion (CTO).Methods:A total of 88 patients (76 males, 12 females, age (61.0±9.8) years) with coronary CTO were retrospectively analyzed. All patients underwent both 99Tc m-methoxyisobutylisonitrile (MIBI) SPECT myocardial perfusion imaging and 18F-FDG PET myocardial metabolism imaging for evaluation of VM at the First People′s Hospital of Changzhou between September 2012 and June 2023, and they were scheduled to receive coronary revascularization. The perfusion/metabolism mismatch myocardium was regarded as VM. The VM index within the CTO region was calculated, reflected the quantities of VM: VM index=(summed rest score within the CTO region-summed 18F-FDG uptake score within the CTO region)/reduced perfusion myocardial segments×4×100%. Rentrop grading of collateral circulation was performed based on coronary angiography. The differences of VM index within the CTO region between poor-developed (PD, Rentrop grade 0-1) and well-developed (WD, Rentrop grade 2-3) collateral circulation, and among different Rentrop grades were analyzed by the independent-sample t test or Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test. The linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between Rentrop grading and VM index within the CTO region. The ROC curve was constructed to analyze the predictive value of Rentrop grading for VM within the CTO region. Results:The VM index within the CTO region was significantly higher in WD patients ( n=54) compared to those in PD patients ( n=34): (45.8±16.3)% vs (21.3±16.7)% ( t=-6.79, P<0.001). Moreover, the VM index within the CTO region increased with increased Rentrop grade, and there was a significant difference among 4 groups ( H=30.22, P<0.001). Multiple linear regression analysis showed that only the Rentrop grading was an independent influencing factor for the VM index within the CTO region ( β=9.29, 95% CI: 5.91-12.67, P<0.001). ROC curve showed that the sensitivity and specificity of Rentrop grading score≥2 for predicting the presence or absence of VM within the CTO region were 65.8%(52/79) and 7/9, with the AUC of 0.724(95% CI: 0.619-0.814). Conclusions:In CTO patients who are scheduled for revascularization and evaluation of VM, as the Rentrop grading increases, the VM index within the CTO region also increases. The presence of VM within the CTO region can be predicted with Rentrop grading score ≥2.
3.Association between hypertension duration and chronic kidney disease in residents in China
Xiao ZHANG ; Mei ZHANG ; Chun LI ; Mengting YU ; Limin WANG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(1):26-32
Objective:To evaluate the association between hypertension duration and risk for chronic kidney disease in residents in China.Methods:Participants aged 18-74 years from the sixth round of China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance in 2018 were included. The age/date at hypertension diagnosis was reported by them, and hypertension duration was calculated based on the age at diagnosis and the age at survey. The hypertension duration was calculated as 0 year (i.e., normotensive participants), 0.1- year, 5.0- years, 10.0- years, and ≥15.0 years. Serum creatinine, urinary albumin, and urinary creatinine levels were measured, and chronic kidney disease was diagnosed when glomerular filtration rate was <60 ml·min -1·(1.73 m 2) -1 and/or urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio was ≥30 mg/g. Multivariable logistic regression analysis, which took intra-group correlation into account, was used to evaluate the association of hypertension duration with chronic kidney disease. Results:A total of 140 662 residents were finally included in the analysis. After adjusting the confounders, including blood pressure, the odds ratio of chronic kidney disease was 1.16 (95% CI: 1.09-1.23), 1.33 (95% CI: 1.20-1.48), 1.33 (95% CI: 1.18-1.49), and 1.43 (95% CI: 1.29-1.60) in study subjects with hypertension durations of 0.1-4.9 years, 5.0-9.9 years, 10.0-14.9 years, and ≥15.0 years, respectively, in comparison with normotensive people. This result was further supported by the positive association between hypertension duration and chronic kidney disease in people with previously diagnosed hypertension. The results of restricted cubic spline suggested that the risk for chronic kidney disease showed a steep increase within 0.1- 4.9 years after hypertension diagnosis, then showed neither increase nor decrease. The above association seemed to be stronger in those with hypertension diagnosed age <45 years. Compared with those with hypertension duration of 0.1-4.9 years, the odds ratio was 1.38 (95% CI: 1.04-1.84), 1.22 (95% CI: 0.91-1.65), and 1.47 (95% CI: 1.04-2.07) in those with hypertension durations of 5.0-9.9 years, 10.0-14.9 years, and ≥15.0 year, respectively. In those with hypertension diagnosis at ≥45 years, the corresponding odds ratio was 1.08 (95% CI: 0.98-1.19), 1.08 (95% CI: 0.97-1.21), and 1.16 (95% CI: 1.02-1.32), respectively. Conclusions:Hypertension duration is positively associated with the risk for chronic kidney disease in residents in China, and this association is independent of blood pressure level. Early diagnosis of hypertension and long-term control of blood pressure are effective strategies for secondary prevention of hypertension-related chronic kidney disease.
4.Prevalence of chronic kidney disease and risk factors in adults with hypertension in China
Yanmei CHEN ; Zhenping ZHAO ; Mei ZHANG ; Xiao ZHANG ; Chun LI ; Mengting YU ; Limin WANG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(1):33-42
Objective:To understand the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and influencing factors in adults with hypertension in China and provide evidence for the management of CKD in hypertension patients.Methods:The prevalence data of CKD in hypertension patients in China were collected from China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance in 2018, the data of 68 829 hypertension patients were analyzed. After complex weighting, the prevalence of CKD in the study population was compared. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to explore the influencing factors of CKD in adults with hypertension.Results:The prevalence of CKD in the hypertension patients was 18.2% (95% CI: 17.4%-19.0%) and increased with age, and the prevalence was 16.4% in men and 20.6% in women ( P<0.001). In different age groups, CKD at stage G1 mainly occurred in those aged 18-44 and 45-59 years, with the prevalence of 10.8% and 7.8%, respectively, while CKD at stages G2 and G3a mainly occurred in those aged >60 years, with the prevalence of 9.4% and 9.7%. Multivariate logistic regression results showed that in the hypertension patients, being aged ≥60 years, being women, smoking (including current and ever smoking), physical inactivity, being underweight or obese, and suffering from diabetes, dyslipidemia and hyperuricemia were the potential risk factors for CKD (all P<0.05). Conclusion:The prevalence of CKD was higher in people with hypertension than in general population in China, and age, gender, smoking status, physical activity level, and suffering from diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hyperuricemia or not were significant influencing factors. It is necessary to strengthen health education and kidney function testing in adults with hypertension and develop comprehensive CKD prevention and control measures targeting high-risk population.
5.The trend of change in insulin resistance among Chinese adults from 2010 to 2018
Chunli YE ; Limin WANG ; Yanfang ZHAO ; Xiao ZHANG ; Chun LI ; Zhenping ZHAO ; Yue HOU ; Yanmei CHEN ; Mei ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2025;46(2):179-187
Objective:To investigate the trends in insulin resistance, as represented by the triglyceride-glucose index (TyG index), among Chinese adult residents from 2010 to 2018 and to explore influencing factors.Methods:China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance was conducted in 2010, 2013, and 2018, using a multi-stage stratified cluster random sampling method across all 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China. This study sampled 98 712 adults in 2010, 176 534 adults in 2013, and 184 876 adults in 2018, all aged ≥18 years, totaling 406 933 participants. Individuals with a TyG index > P75 were classified as having insulin resistance. The mean TyG index and the prevalence of insulin resistance were calculated for different years, sexes, age groups, provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), and subgroups for 2018. Linear and logistic regression models were used to test trends in means and rates over time, and multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to analyze potential factors associated with insulin resistance. All analyses were adjusted for complex sampling weights based on the study design. Results:From 2010 to 2018, the mean TyG index among Chinese adults increased from 8.44±0.63 to 8.70±0.64, with significant upward trends observed across different age groups, sexes, and urban-rural residencies (all P<0.001). The mean TyG index was higher among males, urban residents, and those aged 45-59. There were significant differences in the mean TyG indices and prevalence of insulin resistance across provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) (all P<0.05). Higher insulin resistance prevalence was independently associated with being male, aged ≥45 years, living in urban areas, excessive alcohol consumption, and insufficient physical activity (all P<0.05). Conclusions:From 2010 to 2018, the level of insulin resistance, as indicated by the TyG index, showed an increasing trend among Chinese adults. Males, individuals aged ≥45 years, urban residents, and individuals with unhealthy lifestyles such as excessive alcohol consumption or insufficient physical activity should be the focus of efforts to prevent and control metabolic diseases related to insulin resistance.
6.Early clinical observation of the efficacy of a three-stage traditional Chinese medicine external treatment plan for talus Bone bruises caused by acute ankle sprain.
Mei-Qi YU ; Lei ZHANG ; Tian-Xin CHEN ; Ting-Ting DONG ; Yan LI ; Jun-Ying WU ; Bo JIANG ; Sheng ZHANG ; Xiao-Hua LIU ; Jin SUN ; Qing-Lin WANG
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(8):835-841
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the early clinical efficacy of a three-stage external treatment with traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) in the treatment of talar bone contusion caused by acute ankle sprain.
METHODS:
A retrospective analysis was performed on 360 patients with primary lateral ankle sprain admitted from September 2021 to July 2024. Patients with talar bone contusion were selected based on MRI examination, and 73 cases were finally included. According to different treatment methods, they were divided into the observation group and the control group. The observation group consisted of 35 cases, including 16 males and 19 females, aged 24 to 37 years old with an average of (30.34±2.68) years old, and received the three-stage external TCM treatment combined with the "POLICE" protocol. The control group included 38 cases, including 18 males and 20 females, aged 24 to 35 years old with an average of (29.87±2.57) years old, and was treated with the "POLICE" protocol alone. The volume of bone marrow edema (BME) area shown by MRI before treatment and 6 weeks after treatment was measured using 3D Slicer software, and the BME improvement rate was calculated. The "Figure of 8" measurement method was used to assess ankle swelling before treatment and at 1 and 3 weeks after treatment. The visual analogue scale (VAS) was used to evaluate ankle pain before treatment and at 1 and 6 weeks after treatment. At 6 weeks after treatment, the American Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Society (AOFAS) ankle-hindfoot score and Karlsson ankle function score system were used to evaluate the improvement of ankle function.
RESULTS:
A total of 73 patients with talar bone contusion caused by ankle sprain completed the 6-week follow-up. At 6 weeks after treatment, the BME improvement rate in the observation group was (39.18±0.06)%, which was higher than (26.75±0.03)% in the control group, with a statistically significant difference (P<0.05). After 1 week of treatment, the VAS score in the observation group was (2.89±0.72) points, lower than (3.37±0.79) points in the control group, and the difference was statistically significant (P<0.05). The ankle swelling degree in the observation group was (50.20±3.19) cm, lower than (52.00±3.60) cm in the control group, with a statistically significant difference (P<0.05). After 3 weeks of treatment, there was no statistically significant difference in ankle swelling between the two groups. At 6 weeks after treatment, there was no statistically significant difference in VAS scores between the two groups. At 6 weeks after treatment, the AOFAS ankle-hindfoot score and Karlsson score in the observation group were (87.43±4.18) and (82.77±5.93) points, respectively, which were higher than (82.92±4.87) and (76.45±6.85) points in the control group, with statistically significant differences (P<0.05). According to the AOFAS ankle-hindfoot score, 8 cases were excellent and 27 cases were good in the observation group;2 cases were excellent, 33 cases were good, and 3 cases were fair in the control group. The difference between the two groups was statistically significant (χ2=7.089, P=0.029).
CONCLUSION
The three-stage external TCM treatment combined with the "POLICE" protocol has a significant early clinical efficacy. It can significantly reduce ankle pain and swelling in patients with bone contusion caused by acute lateral ankle sprain, promote the absorption of bone marrow edema, and accelerate the recovery of ankle function.
Ankle Injuries/drug therapy*
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
;
Talus/injuries*
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Administration, Cutaneous
;
Magnetic Resonance Imaging
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Young Adult
;
Adult
;
Contusions/etiology*
;
Visual Analog Scale
;
Musculoskeletal Pain/etiology*
;
Recovery of Function/drug effects*
;
Treatment Outcome
;
Follow-Up Studies
7.Icariin targets PDE5A to regulate viability, DNA synthesis and DNA damage of spermatogonial stem cells and improves reproductive capacity.
Tian-Long LIAO ; Cai-Mei HE ; Di XIAO ; Zhi-Rong ZHANG ; Zuping HE ; Xiao-Ping YANG
Asian Journal of Andrology 2025;27(4):543-549
Icariin is a pure compound derived from Epimedium brevicornu Maxim, and it helps the regulation of male reproduction. Nevertheless, the role and underlying mechanisms of Icariin in mediating male germ cell development remain to be clarified. Here, we have demonstrated that Icariin promoted proliferation and DNA synthesis of mouse spermatogonial stem cells (SSCs). Furthermore, surface plasmon resonance iron (SPRi) and molecular docking (MOE) assays revealed that phosphodiesterase 5A (PDE5A) was an important target of Icariin in mouse SSCs. Mechanically, Icariin decreased the expression level of PDE5A. Interestingly, hydrogen peroxides (H 2 O 2 ) enhanced the expression level of phosphorylation H2A.X (p-H2A.X), whereas Icariin diminished the expression level of p-H2A.X and DNA damage caused by H 2 O 2 in mouse SSCs. Finally, our in vivo animal study indicated that Icariin protected male reproduction. Collectively, these results implicate that Icariin targets PDE5A to regulate mouse SSC viability and DNA damage and improves male reproductive capacity. This study thus sheds new insights into molecular mechanisms underlying the fate decisions of mammalian SSCs and offers a scientific basis for the clinical application of Icariin in male reproduction.
Male
;
Animals
;
Flavonoids/pharmacology*
;
Mice
;
Cyclic Nucleotide Phosphodiesterases, Type 5/drug effects*
;
DNA Damage/drug effects*
;
Cell Survival/drug effects*
;
Cell Proliferation/drug effects*
;
Spermatogonia/drug effects*
;
Reproduction/drug effects*
;
Adult Germline Stem Cells/metabolism*
;
DNA Replication/drug effects*
8.Genetic and clinical characteristics of children with RAS-mutated juvenile myelomonocytic leukemia.
Yun-Long CHEN ; Xing-Chen WANG ; Chen-Meng LIU ; Tian-Yuan HU ; Jing-Liao ZHANG ; Fang LIU ; Li ZHANG ; Xiao-Juan CHEN ; Ye GUO ; Yao ZOU ; Yu-Mei CHEN ; Ying-Chi ZHANG ; Xiao-Fan ZHU ; Wen-Yu YANG
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics 2025;27(5):548-554
OBJECTIVES:
To investigate the genomic characteristics and prognostic factors of juvenile myelomonocytic leukemia (JMML) with RAS mutations.
METHODS:
A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of JMML children with RAS mutations treated at the Hematology Hospital of Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, from January 2008 to November 2022.
RESULTS:
A total of 34 children were included, with 17 cases (50%) having isolated NRAS mutations, 9 cases (27%) having isolated KRAS mutations, and 8 cases (24%) having compound mutations. Compared to children with isolated NRAS mutations, those with NRAS compound mutations showed statistically significant differences in age at onset, platelet count, and fetal hemoglobin proportion (P<0.05). Cox proportional hazards regression model analysis revealed that hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) and hepatomegaly (≥2 cm below the costal margin) were factors affecting the survival rate of JMML children with RAS mutations (P<0.05); hepatomegaly was a factor affecting survival in the non-HSCT group (P<0.05).
CONCLUSIONS
Children with NRAS compound mutations have a later onset age compared to those with isolated NRAS mutations. At initial diagnosis, children with NRAS compound mutations have poorer peripheral platelet and fetal hemoglobin levels than those with isolated NRAS mutations. Liver size at initial diagnosis is related to the prognosis of JMML children with RAS mutations. HSCT can improve the prognosis of JMML children with RAS mutations.
Humans
;
Leukemia, Myelomonocytic, Juvenile/therapy*
;
Mutation
;
Male
;
Female
;
Child, Preschool
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Child
;
Infant
;
GTP Phosphohydrolases/genetics*
;
Membrane Proteins/genetics*
;
Adolescent
;
Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation
;
Proportional Hazards Models
;
Proto-Oncogene Proteins p21(ras)/genetics*
;
Prognosis
9.Avatrombopag for platelet engraftment after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in children: a retrospective clinical study.
Xin WANG ; Yuan-Yuan REN ; Xia CHEN ; Chao-Qian JIANG ; Ran-Ran ZHANG ; Xiao-Yan ZHANG ; Li-Peng LIU ; Yu-Mei CHEN ; Li ZHANG ; Yao ZOU ; Fang LIU ; Xiao-Juan CHEN ; Wen-Yu YANG ; Xiao-Fan ZHU ; Ye GUO
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics 2025;27(10):1233-1239
OBJECTIVES:
To evaluate the efficacy and safety of avatrombopag in promoting platelet engraftment after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) in children, compared with recombinant human thrombopoietin (rhTPO).
METHODS:
A retrospective analysis was conducted on 53 pediatric patients who underwent allo-HSCT at the Institute of Hematology and Blood Diseases Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences from April 2023 to August 2024. Based on medications used during the periengraftment period, patients were divided into two groups: the avatrombopag group (n=15) and the rhTPO group (n=38).
RESULTS:
At days 14, 30, and 60 post-transplant, platelet engraftment was achieved in 20% (3/15), 60% (9/15), and 93% (14/15) of patients in the avatrombopag group, and in 39% (15/38), 82% (31/38), and 97% (37/38) in the rhTPO group, respectively. There were no significant differences between the two groups in platelet engraftment rates at each time point, cumulative incidence of platelet engraftment, overall survival, and relapse-free survival (all P>0.05). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis indicated that acute graft-versus-host disease was an independent risk factor for delayed platelet engraftment (P=0.043).
CONCLUSIONS
In children undergoing allo-HSCT, avatrombopag effectively promotes platelet engraftment, with efficacy and safety comparable to rhTPO, and represents a viable therapeutic option.
Humans
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation/adverse effects*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Child
;
Child, Preschool
;
Infant
;
Adolescent
;
Transplantation, Homologous
;
Blood Platelets/drug effects*
;
Thiazoles/therapeutic use*
;
Thrombopoietin/therapeutic use*
;
Thiophenes
10.Improvement effect of rehabilitation nursing based on IKAP theory on patients with urinary incontinence after radical prostatectomy.
Ting-Ting XIA ; Wen-Fang CHEN ; Jie LIU ; Xiao-Wen TAN ; Juan LI ; Yan-Yan ZHANG ; Yu-Mei CAO ; Song XU ; Ting-Ling ZHANG
National Journal of Andrology 2025;31(5):438-443
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the improvement effect of rehabilitation nursing based on information-knowledge-belief-behavior (IKAP) theory on urinary incontinence patients after radical prostatectomy.
METHODS
Sixty-six patients with urinary incontinence who received robot-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy in General Hospital of Eastern Theater Command from January 2021 to January 2023 were selected and divided into control group (n=33) and observation group (n=33) according to random number table method. The patients in the control group were treated with rehabilitation nursing. The patients in the observation group were treated with rehabilitation nursing guided by IKAP theory. The recovery of urinary incontinence, duration of urinary incontinence, subjective well-being, quality of life, psychological and emotional indexes of patients in the two groups were compared. Results: The total effective rate of urinary incontinence recovery in the observation group was significantly higher than that in the control group (90.91% vs 60.61%,P<0.05). The duration of urinary incontinence in the observation group was significantly shorter than that in the control group ([3.36±1.54]d vs [4.15±1.36]d,P<0.05). And the subjective well-being score in observation group was significantly higher than that in the control group ([19.36±2.69]points vs [11.65±2.65]points, P<0.05). There was no significant difference in preoperative physical function, social function,and mental health scores between the two groups (P>0.05). And all scores in the observation group were significantly higher than those in the control group after surgery (P<0.05). There was no significant difference in the preoperative SAS and SDS scores between the two groups of patients (P>0.05). And the scores of SAS and SDS in observation group were lower than those of the control group after the operation (P<0.05). Conclusion: Rehabilitation nursing based on IKAP theory can significantly improve urinary incontinence in patients with prostate cancer after surgery, which promotes the recovery of urinary incontinence, shortens the time of urinary incontinence, and improves the subjective well-being and quality of life, as well as reduces the negative impact of negative emotions. Therefore, it can be widely promoted and implemented in clinical practice.
Humans
;
Prostatectomy/adverse effects*
;
Urinary Incontinence/etiology*
;
Male
;
Quality of Life
;
Rehabilitation Nursing
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged

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