1.Population-attributable risk assessment and risk prediction model of cardiovascular disease risk factors
Yumei QIN ; Guiqi CAO ; Shiying JIANG ; Yizhang XIAO
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;36(1):74-78
Objective To explore the “contribution” of different exposures to cardiovascular diseases at the population level and to construct a risk prediction model for the effective allocation of prevention resources. Methods The CHNS (China Health and Nutrition Survey) database was used. In 2009, 2011 and 2015, 9 899 permanent residents aged 35 to 75 years in 10 provinces and cities in the central and eastern regions (Beijing, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Shanghai, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi and Jiangsu) were selected as the research subjects. A single-factor analysis was conducted to examine the risk factors including sex, age, BMI, marital status, urban/rural area, sleep time, smoking, alcohol consumption, diabetes, education, and health insurance. The multifactor-adjusted population-attributable risk of certain risk factors was also estimated based on logistic regression analysis. The cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction model was developed using a modeling group of 6 927 randomly selected individuals (70%) and a validation group of 2 974 individuals (30%). The model's differentiation and calibration were assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Results The results showed that the adjusted population attributable risk and 95% confidence interval for BMI, sleep time, smoking, drinking and diabetes were 32.20% (27.67%-36.89%), 7.90% (1.68%-16.58%), 18.56% (11.35%-26.24%), 6.47% (0.11%-13.25%) and 5.73% (4.42%-7.03%). The results of multivariate adjusted population attributable risk percentage showed that BMI was the dominant cause of cardiovascular diseases, followed by smoking, sleep time, drinking and diabetes. The low-risk prevalence rate was 18.44%, the higher-risk prevalence rate was 14.19%, and the high-risk prevalence rate was 42.52%. The area under ROC curve AUC was 0.711, P<0.001, and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed P=0.257. Conclusion In the future, it is important to focus on high-risk groups , control body mass index to the normal range, and reduce smoking , which is of great significance for the prevention of cardiovascular diseases. The risk prediction model has the value of good differentiation and practicability , and can provide certain prediction ability for the prevention of cardiovascular diseases.
2.Correlation between differences in starch gelatinization, water distribution, and terpenoid content during steaming process of Curcuma kwangsiensis root tubers by multivariate statistical analysis.
Yan LIANG ; Meng-Na YANG ; Xiao-Li QIN ; Zhi-Yong ZHANG ; Zhong-Nan SU ; Hou-Kang CAO ; Ke-Feng ZHANG ; Ming-Wei WANG ; Bo LI ; Shuo LI
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(10):2684-2694
To elucidate the mechanism by which steaming affects the quality of Curcuma kwangsiensis root tubers, methods such as LSCM, RVA, dual-wavelength spectrophotometry, LF-NMR, and LC-MS were employed to qualitatively and quantitatively detect changes in starch gelatinization characteristics, water distribution, and material composition of C. kwangsiensis root tubers under different steaming durations. Based on multivariate statistical analysis, the correlation between differences in gelatinization parameters, water distribution, and terpenoid material composition was investigated. The results indicate that steaming affects both starch gelatinization and water distribution in C. kwangsiensis. During the steaming process, transformations occur between amylose and amylopectin, as well as between semi-bound water and free water. After 60 min of steaming, starch gelatinization and water distribution reached an equilibrium state. The content of amylopectin, the amylose-to-amylopectin ratio, and parameters such as gelatinization temperature, viscosity, breakdown value, and setback value were significantly correlated(P≤0.05). Additionally, the amylose-to-amylopectin ratio was significantly correlated with total free water and total water content(P≤0.05). Steaming induced differences in the material composition of C. kwangsiensis root tubers. Clustering of primary metabolites in the OPLS-DA model was distinct, while secondary metabolites were classified into 9 clusters using the K-means clustering algorithm. Differential terpenoid metabolites such as(-)-α-curcumene were significantly correlated with zerumbone, retinal, and all-trans-retinoic acid(P<0.05). Curcumenol was significantly correlated with isoalantolactone and ursolic acid(P<0.05), while all-trans-retinoic acid was significantly correlated with both zerumbone and retinal(P<0.05). Alpha-tocotrienol exhibited a significant correlation with retinal and all-trans-retinoic acid(P<0.05). Amylose was extremely significantly correlated with(-)-α-curcumene, curcumenol, zerumbone, retinal, all-trans-retinoic acid, and α-tocotrienol(P<0.05). Amylopectin was significantly correlated with zerumbone(P<0.05) and extremely significantly correlated with(-)-α-curcumene, curcumenol, zerumbone, retinal, all-trans-retinoic acid, and 9-cis-retinoic acid(P<0.01). The results provide scientific evidence for elucidating the mechanism of quality formation of steamed C. kwangsiensis root tubers as a medicinal material.
Curcuma/chemistry*
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Starch/chemistry*
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Multivariate Analysis
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Water/chemistry*
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Terpenes/analysis*
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Plant Roots/chemistry*
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Plant Tubers/chemistry*
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/chemistry*
3.Liang-Ge-San Decoction Ameliorates Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome via Suppressing p38MAPK-NF-κ B Signaling Pathway.
Quan LI ; Juan CHEN ; Meng-Meng WANG ; Li-Ping CAO ; Wei ZHANG ; Zhi-Zhou YANG ; Yi REN ; Jing FENG ; Xiao-Qin HAN ; Shi-Nan NIE ; Zhao-Rui SUN
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2025;31(7):613-623
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the potential effects and mechanisms of Liang-Ge-San (LGS) for the treatment of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) through network pharmacology analysis and to verify LGS activity through biological experiments.
METHODS:
The key ingredients of LGS and related targets were obtained from the Traditional Chinese Medicine Systems Pharmacology Database and Analysis Platform. ARDS-related targets were selected from GeneCards and DisGeNET databases. Gene Ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes enrichment analyses were performed using the Metascape Database. Molecular docking analysis was used to confirm the binding affinity of the core compounds with key therapeutic targets. Finally, the effects of LGS on key signaling pathways and biological processes were determined by in vitro and in vivo experiments.
RESULTS:
A total of LGS-related targets and 496 ARDS-related targets were obtained from the databases. Network pharmacological analysis suggested that LGS could treat ARDS based on the following information: LGS ingredients luteolin, wogonin, and baicalein may be potential candidate agents. Mitogen-activated protein kinase 14 (MAPK14), recombinant V-Rel reticuloendotheliosis viral oncogene homolog A (RELA), and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) may be potential therapeutic targets. Reactive oxygen species metabolic process and the apoptotic signaling pathway were the main biological processes. The p38MAPK/NF-κ B signaling pathway might be the key signaling pathway activated by LGS against ARDS. Moreover, molecular docking demonstrated that luteolin, wogonin, and baicalein had a good binding affinity with MAPK14, RELA, and TNF α. In vitro experiments, LGS inhibited the expression and entry of p38 and p65 into the nucleation in human bronchial epithelial cells (HBE) cells induced by LPS, inhibited the inflammatory response and oxidative stress response, and inhibited HBE cell apoptosis (P<0.05 or P<0.01). In vivo experiments, LGS improved lung injury caused by ligation and puncture, reduced inflammatory responses, and inhibited the activation of p38MAPK and p65 (P<0.05 or P<0.01).
CONCLUSION
LGS could reduce reactive oxygen species and inflammatory cytokine production by inhibiting p38MAPK/NF-κ B signaling pathway, thus reducing apoptosis and attenuating ARDS.
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/pharmacology*
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Respiratory Distress Syndrome/enzymology*
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p38 Mitogen-Activated Protein Kinases/metabolism*
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NF-kappa B/metabolism*
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Animals
;
Signal Transduction/drug effects*
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Molecular Docking Simulation
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Humans
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Male
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Network Pharmacology
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Apoptosis/drug effects*
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Mice
4.Integrated evidence chain-based effectiveness evaluation of traditional Chinese medicines (Eff-iEC): A demonstration study.
Ye LUO ; Xu ZHAO ; Ruilin WANG ; Xiaoyan ZHAN ; Tianyi ZHANG ; Tingting HE ; Jing JING ; Jianyu LI ; Fengyi LI ; Ping ZHANG ; Junling CAO ; Jinfa TANG ; Zhijie MA ; Tingming SHEN ; Shuanglin QIN ; Ming YANG ; Jun ZHAO ; Zhaofang BAI ; Jiabo WANG ; Aiguo DAI ; Xiangmei CHEN ; Xiaohe XIAO
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2025;15(2):909-918
Addressing the enduring challenge of evaluating traditional Chinese medicines (TCMs), the integrated evidence chain-based effectiveness evaluation of TCMs (Eff-iEC) has emerged. This paper explored its capacity through a demonstration study that evaluated the effectiveness evidence of six commonly used anti-hepatic fibrosis Chinese patent medicines (CPMs), including Biejiajian Pill (BP), Dahuang Zhechong Pill (DZP), Biejia Ruangan Compound (BRC), Fuzheng Huayu Capsule (FHC), Anluo Huaxian Pill (AHP), and Heluo Shugan Capsule (HSC), using both Eff-iEC and the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system. The recognition of these CPMs within the TCM academic community was also assessed through their inclusion in relevant medical documents. Results showed that the evidence of BRC and FHC received higher assessments in both Eff-iEC and GRADE system, while the assessments for others varied. Analysis of community recognition revealed that Eff-iEC more accurately reflects the clinical value of these CPMs, exhibiting superior evaluative capabilities. By breaking through the conventional pattern of TCMs effectiveness evaluation, Eff-iEC offers a novel epistemology that better aligns with the clinical realities and reasoning of TCMs, providing a coherent methodology for clinical decision-making, new drug evaluations, and health policy formulation.
5.Interleukin-33 Knockout Promotes High Mobility Group Box 1 Release from Astrocytes by Acetylation Mediated by P300/CBP-Associated Factor in Experimental Autoimmune Encephalomyelitis.
Yifan XIAO ; Liyan HAO ; Xinyi CAO ; Yibo ZHANG ; Qingqing XU ; Luyao QIN ; Yixuan ZHANG ; Yangxingzi WU ; Hongyan ZHOU ; Mengjuan WU ; Mingshan PI ; Qi XIONG ; Youhua YANG ; Yuran GUI ; Wei LIU ; Fang ZHENG ; Xiji SHU ; Yiyuan XIA
Neuroscience Bulletin 2025;41(7):1181-1197
High mobility group box 1 (HMGB1), when released extracellularly, plays a pivotal role in the development of spinal cord synapses and exacerbates autoimmune diseases within the central nervous system. In experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), a condition that models multiple sclerosis, the levels of extracellular HMGB1 and interleukin-33 (IL-33) have been found to be inversely correlated. However, the mechanism by which IL-33 deficiency enhances HMGB1 release during EAE remains elusive. Our study elucidates a potential signaling pathway whereby the absence of IL-33 leads to increased binding of P300/CBP-associated factor with HMGB1 in the nuclei of astrocytes, upregulating HMGB1 acetylation and promoting its release from astrocyte nuclei in the spinal cord of EAE mice. Conversely, the addition of IL-33 counteracts the TNF-α-induced increase in HMGB1 and acetylated HMGB1 levels in primary astrocytes. These findings underscore the potential of IL-33-associated signaling pathways as a therapeutic target for EAE treatment.
Animals
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Encephalomyelitis, Autoimmune, Experimental/metabolism*
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Astrocytes/metabolism*
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Interleukin-33/metabolism*
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HMGB1 Protein/metabolism*
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Acetylation
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Mice, Knockout
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Mice, Inbred C57BL
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p300-CBP Transcription Factors/metabolism*
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Mice
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Spinal Cord/metabolism*
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Cells, Cultured
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Female
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Signal Transduction
6.Morin inhibits ubiquitination degradation of BCL-2 associated agonist of cell death and synergizes with BCL-2 inhibitor in gastric cancer cells.
Yi WANG ; Xiao-Yu SUN ; Fang-Qi MA ; Ming-Ming REN ; Ruo-Han ZHAO ; Meng-Meng QIN ; Xiao-Hong ZHU ; Yan XU ; Ni-da CAO ; Yuan-Yuan CHEN ; Tian-Geng DONG ; Yong-Fu PAN ; Ai-Guang ZHAO
Journal of Integrative Medicine 2025;23(3):320-332
OBJECTIVE:
Gastric cancer (GC) is one of the most common malignancies seen in clinic and requires novel treatment options. Morin is a natural flavonoid extracted from the flower stalk of a highly valuable medicinal plant Prunella vulgaris L., which exhibits an anti-cancer effect in multiple types of tumors. However, the therapeutic effect and underlying mechanism of morin in treating GC remains elusive. The study aims to explore the therapeutic effect and underlying molecular mechanisms of morin in GC.
METHODS:
For in vitro experiments, the proliferation inhibition of morin was measured by cell counting kit-8 assay and colony formation assay in human GC cell line MKN45, human gastric adenocarcinoma cell line AGS, and human gastric epithelial cell line GES-1; for apoptosis analysis, microscopic photography, Western blotting, ubiquitination analysis, quantitative polymerase chain reaction analysis, flow cytometry, and RNA interference technology were employed. For in vivo studies, immunohistochemistry, biomedical analysis, and Western blotting were used to assess the efficacy and safety of morin in a xenograft mouse model of GC.
RESULTS:
Morin significantly inhibited the proliferation of GC cells MKN45 and AGS in a dose- and time-dependent manner, but did not inhibit human gastric epithelial cells GES-1. Only the caspase inhibitor Z-VAD-FMK was able to significantly reverse the inhibition of proliferation by morin in both GC cells, suggesting that apoptosis was the main type of cell death during the treatment. Morin induced intrinsic apoptosis in a dose-dependent manner in GC cells, which mainly relied on B cell leukemia/lymphoma 2 (BCL-2) associated agonist of cell death (BAD) but not phorbol-12-myristate-13-acetate-induced protein 1. The upregulation of BAD by morin was due to blocking the ubiquitination degradation of BAD, rather than the transcription regulation and the phosphorylation of BAD. Furthermore, the combination of morin and BCL-2 inhibitor navitoclax (also known as ABT-737) produced a synergistic inhibitory effect in GC cells through amplifying apoptotic signals. In addition, morin treatment significantly suppressed the growth of GC in vivo by upregulating BAD and the subsequent activation of its downstream apoptosis pathway.
CONCLUSION
Morin suppressed GC by inducing apoptosis, which was mainly due to blocking the ubiquitination-based degradation of the pro-apoptotic protein BAD. The combination of morin and the BCL-2 inhibitor ABT-737 synergistically amplified apoptotic signals in GC cells, which may overcome the drug resistance of the BCL-2 inhibitor. These findings indicated that morin was a potent and promising agent for GC treatment. Please cite this article as: Wang Y, Sun XY, Ma FQ, Ren MM, Zhao RH, Qin MM, Zhu XH, Xu Y, Cao ND, Chen YY, Dong TG, Pan YF, Zhao AG. Morin inhibits ubiquitination degradation of BCL-2 associated agonist of cell death and synergizes with BCL-2 inhibitor in gastric cancer cells. J Integr Med. 2025; 23(3): 320-332.
Humans
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Flavonoids/therapeutic use*
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Stomach Neoplasms/pathology*
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Animals
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Proto-Oncogene Proteins c-bcl-2/metabolism*
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Cell Line, Tumor
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Apoptosis/drug effects*
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Cell Proliferation/drug effects*
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Ubiquitination/drug effects*
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Mice
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Drug Synergism
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Mice, Inbred BALB C
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Mice, Nude
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Xenograft Model Antitumor Assays
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Flavones
7.A Retrospective Study of Pregnancy and Fetal Outcomes in Mothers with Hepatitis C Viremia.
Wen DENG ; Zi Yu ZHANG ; Xin Xin LI ; Ya Qin ZHANG ; Wei Hua CAO ; Shi Yu WANG ; Xin WEI ; Zi Xuan GAO ; Shuo Jie WANG ; Lin Mei YAO ; Lu ZHANG ; Hong Xiao HAO ; Xiao Xue CHEN ; Yuan Jiao GAO ; Wei YI ; Yao XIE ; Ming Hui LI
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(7):829-839
OBJECTIVE:
To investigate chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection's effect on gestational liver function, pregnancy and delivery complications, and neonatal development.
METHODS:
A total of 157 HCV antibody-positive (anti-HCV[+]) and HCV RNA(+) patients (Group C) and 121 anti-HCV(+) and HCV RNA(-) patients (Group B) were included as study participants, while 142 anti-HCV(-) and HCV RNA(-) patients (Group A) were the control group. Data on biochemical indices during pregnancy, pregnancy complications, delivery-related information, and neonatal complications were also collected.
RESULTS:
Elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) rates in Group C during early, middle, and late pregnancy were 59.87%, 43.95%, and 42.04%, respectively-significantly higher than Groups B (26.45%, 15.70%, 10.74%) and A (23.94%, 19.01%, 6.34%) ( P < 0.05). Median ALT levels in Group C were significantly higher than in Groups A and B at all pregnancy stages ( P < 0.05). No significant differences were found in neonatal malformation rates across groups ( P > 0.05). However, neonatal jaundice incidence was significantly greater in Group C (75.16%) compared to Groups A (42.25%) and B (57.02%) ( χ 2 = 33.552, P < 0.001). HCV RNA positivity during pregnancy was an independent risk factor for neonatal jaundice ( OR = 2.111, 95% CI 1.242-3.588, P = 0.006).
CONCLUSIONS
Chronic HCV infection can affect the liver function of pregnant women, but does not increase the pregnancy or delivery complication risks. HCV RNA(+) is an independent risk factor for neonatal jaundice.
Humans
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Female
;
Pregnancy
;
Adult
;
Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/epidemiology*
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Retrospective Studies
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Pregnancy Outcome
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Infant, Newborn
;
Viremia/virology*
;
Hepatitis C
;
Hepacivirus/physiology*
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Hepatitis C, Chronic/virology*
;
Young Adult
;
Alanine Transaminase/blood*
8.Spatiotemporal distribution of newly diagnosed echinococcosis patients in Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2022
Xinlu CUI ; Xiao MA ; Na LIU ; Jia LIU ; Wen LEI ; Shusheng WU ; Xianglan QIN ; Chunhua GONG ; Xiaojin MO ; Shijie YANG ; Ting ZHANG ; Li CAO
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2024;36(5):474-480
Objective To investigate the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and potential influencing factors of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases in Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2022, so as to provide insights into the formulation of the echinococcosis control strategy in Qinghai Province. Methods The number of individuals screened for echinococcosis, number of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases, number of registered dogs and number of stray dogs were captured from the annual reports of echinococcosis control program in Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2022, and the detection of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases was calculated. The number of populations, precipitation, temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours, average altitude, number of year-end cattle stock, number of year-end sheep stock, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and number of village health centers in each county (district) of Qinghai Province were captured from the Qinghai Provincial Statistical Yearbook, and county-level electronic maps in Qinghai Province were downloaded from the National Platform for Common Geospatial Information Services. The software ArcGIS 10.8 was used to map the distribution of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases in Qinghai Province, and the spatial autocorrelation analysis of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases was performed. In addition, the spacetime scan analyses of number of individuals screened for echinococcosis, number of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases and geographical coordinates in Qinghai Province were performed with the software SaTScan 10.1.2, and the spatial stratified heterogeneity of the detection of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases was investigated with the software GeoDetector. Results A total of 6 569 426 residents were screened for echinococcosis in Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2022, and 5 924 newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases were found. The detection of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases appeared a tendency towards a decline over years from 2016 to 2022 (χ2 = 11.107, P < 0.01), with the highest detection in Guoluo Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture in 2017 (82.12/105). There were spatial clusters in the detection of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases in Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2018 (Moran’s I = 0.34 to 0.65, all Z values > 1.96, all P values < 0.05), and the distribution of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases appeared random distribution from 2019 to 2022 (Moran’s I = −0.09 to 0.04, all Z values < 1.96, all P values > 0.05). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed high-high clusters and low-low clusters in the detection of new diagnosed echinococcosis cases in Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2022, and space-time scan analysis showed that the first most likely cluster areas of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases in Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2022 were mainly distributed in Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture and Guoluo Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture. GeoDetector-based analysis of the driving factors for the spatial stratified heterogeneity of detection of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases in Qinghai Province showed that average altitude, number of village health centers, number of cattle and sheep stock, GDP per capita, annual average sunshine hours, and annual average temperature had a strong explanatory power for the spatial distribution of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases, with q values of 0.630, 0.610, 0.600, 0.590, 0.588, 0.537 and 0.526, respectively. Conclusions The detection of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases appeared a tendency towards a decline in Qinghai Province over years from 2016 to 2022, showing spatial clustering. Targeted control measures are required in cluster areas of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases for further control of the disease.
9.Correlation between Combined Urinary Metal Exposure and Grip Strength under Three Statistical Models: A Cross-sectional Study in Rural Guangxi
Jian Yu LIANG ; Hui Jia RONG ; Xiu Xue WANG ; Sheng Jian CAI ; Dong Li QIN ; Mei Qiu LIU ; Xu TANG ; Ting Xiao MO ; Fei Yan WEI ; Xia Yin LIN ; Xiang Shen HUANG ; Yu Ting LUO ; Yu Ruo GOU ; Jing Jie CAO ; Wu Chu HUANG ; Fu Yu LU ; Jian QIN ; Yong Zhi ZHANG
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2024;37(1):3-18
Objective This study aimed to investigate the potential relationship between urinary metals copper (Cu), arsenic (As), strontium (Sr), barium (Ba), iron (Fe), lead (Pb) and manganese (Mn) and grip strength. Methods We used linear regression models, quantile g-computation and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) to assess the relationship between metals and grip strength.Results In the multimetal linear regression, Cu (β=-2.119), As (β=-1.318), Sr (β=-2.480), Ba (β=0.781), Fe (β= 1.130) and Mn (β=-0.404) were significantly correlated with grip strength (P < 0.05). The results of the quantile g-computation showed that the risk of occurrence of grip strength reduction was -1.007 (95% confidence interval:-1.362, -0.652; P < 0.001) when each quartile of the mixture of the seven metals was increased. Bayesian kernel function regression model analysis showed that mixtures of the seven metals had a negative overall effect on grip strength, with Cu, As and Sr being negatively associated with grip strength levels. In the total population, potential interactions were observed between As and Mn and between Cu and Mn (Pinteractions of 0.003 and 0.018, respectively).Conclusion In summary, this study suggests that combined exposure to metal mixtures is negatively associated with grip strength. Cu, Sr and As were negatively correlated with grip strength levels, and there were potential interactions between As and Mn and between Cu and Mn.
10.Risk factors for unplanned readmission after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt in cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding and construction of a nomogram model
Qin YIN ; Zhaorong WU ; Feng ZHANG ; Chunyan JIN ; Yanping CAO ; Jiangqiang XIAO ; Yuzheng ZHUGE ; Qian WANG
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2024;40(9):1796-1801
Objective To investigate the risk factors for unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge in cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS),and to construct a nomogram predictive model.Methods A total of 241 cirrhotic patients who underwent TIPS due to esophagogastric variceal bleeding in Affiliated Drum Tower Hospital of Nanjing University Medical School from January 2020 to June 2023 were enrolled as subjects,and unplanned readmission within 30 days was analyzed.According to the presence or absence of unplanned readmission,they were divided into readmission group with 36 patients and non-readmission group with 198 patients,and related clinical data were collected from all patients.The independent-samples t test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups,and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups;the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups.A logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors for unplanned readmission.A nomogram prediction model was constructed,and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was plotted to assess its discriminatory ability for unplanned readmission;the calibration curve was plotted to evaluate the consistency of the nomogram model in predicting unplanned readmission;the ResourceSelection package of R language was used for the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test to evaluate the degree of fitting of the mode;the decision curve analysis was used to investigate the practicality of the model.Results Age(odds ratio[OR]=2.664,95%confidence interval[CI]:1.139-6.233,P<0.05),CTP score(OR=1.655,95%CI:1.098-2.495,P<0.05),and blood ammonia(OR=1.032,95%CI:1.016-1.048,P<0.05)were independent risk factors for unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge in the patients undergoing TIPS.The multivariate analysis showed that for the nomogram predictive model constructed in this study,repeated sampling for 1 000 times using the Bootstrap method was performed for internal validation,and the area under the ROC curve was 0.773,which was significantly higher than that of age(0.582),CTP score(0.675),and blood ammonia(0.641).The calibration curve showed good consistency between the probability of unplanned readmission predicted by the nomogram model and the actual probability,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed good degree of fitting(c2=5.647 3,P=0.686 7).Conclusion Age,CTP score,and blood ammonia are independent risk factors for unplanned readmission within 30 days after TIPS,and the nomogram prediction model constructed based on these factors can help to predict the risk of unplanned readmission in TIPS patients and provide an accurate decision-making basis for early prevention.


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