Objective:To investigate the application of time series models in forecasting pre-hospital emergency ambulance trips in Handan City and develop the LPro ensemble model for improved prediction accuracy to support emergency resource allocation.Methods:Pre-hospital emergency data from Handan Emergency Medical Command Center (2019-2023) were retrospectively analyzed. From 324 799 original records, 289 949 valid records were included after cleaning. The training set (2019-2022: 215 918 records) included 35 527 records in 2019, 52 015 in 2020, 61 836 in 2021, and 66 540 in 2022. The validation set (2023) contained 74 031 records. ARIMA, linear trend seasonal, exponential smoothing, and Prophet models were fitted to the training set. The LPro ensemble model was constructed using MAPE-based weighting (linear trend seasonal model: 0.38, Prophet: 0.62). Performance metrics included MAPE, RMSE, MAE, and R 2. Results:Data showed annual growth (compound annual growth rate 23.27%) and seasonal patterns (October peaks, February troughs). Ambulance dispatches increased annually with monthly cyclical patterns. For 2023 validation predictions: ARIMA (MAPE 8.76%, RMSE 619, MAE 491, R 2 0.4563), linear trend seasonal (MAPE 9.83%, RMSE 671, MAE 545, R 2 0.3608), Prophet (MAPE 8.43%, RMSE 562, MAE 503, R 2 0.5513), exponential smoothing (MAPE 8.08%, RMSE 643, MAE 410, R 2 0.4124). LPro model showed superior performance (MAPE 7.05%, RMSE 491, MAE 393, R 2 0.6570), with 16.37% lower MAPE, 12.63% lower RMSE, 21.87% lower MAE, and 19.17% higher R 2 versus Prophet. Conclusion:The LPro ensemble model substantially enhances prediction accuracy and reliability, offering scientific support for emergency resource optimization and dispatch scheduling in Handan City.

Objective To quantitatively study right ventricular function in the normal second and third trimester fetuses by M-mode tricuspid annular displacement(TAD).Methods TAD was measured using conventional M-mode echocardiography on 161 normal second and third trimester fetuses with gestation age (GA) between 19-38 weeks,meanwhile multiple parameters for evaluating right ventricular function were obtained using pulsed Doppler echocardiography (PW) and myocardial Dopple tissue imaging (DTI).The correlation between TAD and other parameters were analyzed using SPSS 17.0.Results In normal second and third trimester fetuses,the TAD was (9.38 ± 1.71)mm with a range of 5.79-13.90 mm,and was increased with the growth of GA.TAD was correlated with GA,E,A,Em,Am and Sm significantly (r =0.759,0.547,0.320,0.497,0.483 and 0.598 respectively,all P ＜0.001).TAD was not correlated with HR(P ＞0.05).TAD showed differences between the second trimester fetuses and the third trimester fetuses (P ＜ 0.05).Conclusions In normal second and third trimester fetuses,the TAD is increased with the growth of GA,and has good correlation with GA,E,A,Em,Am and Sm respectively,and may become a new promising modality to evaluate function of RV simply and accurately.The technique will be propitious to use in hospitals (without DTI) because of simplicity of operator and lower requirement on the technology and equipment precision.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the hepatotoxicity which induced by rifamycin sodium and isoniazid by alone or combination in mice. METHODS: Forty mice were divided randomly into 4 groups: the sodium chloride group, the rifamycin sodium group, the isoniazid group and the drug - combination group. The drugs were administered to mice by i. p. or i. g. once daily for 8 days. Each mouse was killed by ophthalmectomy. The blood was collected and the liver was excised immediately. The activity of serum ALT and AST was measured and the liver index in mice was calculated. Light microscope was used to observe the histopathological changes of the hepatic cells. RESULTS: The liver index and the activity of serum ALT and AST increased in all groups expect the sodium chloride group( P

This article reported the results of eight series of animal experiments. In each series, the rats were divided into two groups: the experimental group was fed on corns and vegetables from endemic districts; the control group, from non-endemic districts. The composition of the foodstuffs was the same in the two groups. 375 albino rats were used in the experimental group, and 315 rats in the control group. The observation period was 8-13 weeks.The results showed that the incidence of myocardionecrosis had increased, the heart weight was comparatively larger, the mortality rate was higher, growth was stunted and the weights of the thymus and brown fat were lower than those of controls. The differences between experimental and control groups were stastistically singnificant. Such difference was not due to the composition of foodstuffs, but was closely related to the districts, from where the corns and vegetables were obtained. The results of these eight series of experiments were similar, and with very good reproducibility. It seemed that there were some myocardiac necroti-zing and growth inhibition factors in the corns and vegetables from the Keshan disease endemic districts.