1.Value of metabolic markers combined with anthropometric indicators in predicting and risk stratification of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease and establishment of a nomogram model
Sirui ZHAO ; Zheyu LI ; Wenqiang HE ; Junfeng LI ; Liting ZHANG
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(5):1056-1066
ObjectiveTo develop a novel clinical predictive model for metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) based on metabolic markers and anthropometric indicators, and to provide a more effective tool for the early screening and intervention of MAFLD. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for 2 824 individuals who underwent abdominal color Doppler ultrasound at Health Examination Center of The First Hospital of Lanzhou University from January 1, 2024 to January 1, 2025, and at a ratio of 7∶3, they were randomly divided into training set with 1 976 patients and validation set with 848 patients. Clinical data, serological markers, and abdominal ultrasound results were collected from all patients, and triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, triglyceride-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-C) ratio, and anthropometric indicators were calculated. The independent samples t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed or approximately normally distributed continuous data between two groups, and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data with skewed distribution between two groups; the chi-square test or the Fisher’s exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. The multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent predictive factors for MAFLD and intermediate- to high-risk MAFLD. Five risk prediction models were established for MAFLD based on the independent influencing factors, and a nomogram was plotted. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to assess model performance, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated. The calibration curve was used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the models, and decision curve analysis was used to assess the clinical practicability of the models. These models were then compared with traditional models. ResultsAmong the 1 976 individuals in the training set, 937 (47.42%) were diagnosed with MAFLD, and 423 (21.41%) were diagnosed with intermediate- to high-risk MAFLD; among the 848 individuals in the validation set, 406 (47.88%) were diagnosed with MAFLD. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that male sex (odds ratio [OR]=0.23, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.13 — 0.39, P<0.05), waist circumference (OR=1.11, 95%CI: 1.06 — 1.17, P<0.05), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) >40 U/L (OR=2.24, 95%CI: 1.44 — 3.51, P<0.05), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) (OR=0.07, 95%CI: 0.04 — 0.15, P<0.05), TyG index (OR=8.27, 95%CI: 5.09 — 13.44, P<0.05), TG/HDL-C ratio (OR=0.84, 95%CI: 0.71 — 0.99, P<0.05), A Body Shape Index (ABSI) (OR=0.45, 95%CI: 0.39 — 0.52, P<0.05), and body roundness index (BRI) (OR=2.31, 95%CI: 1.50 — 3.55, P<0.05) were independent influencing factors for MAFLD, and male sex (OR=0.17, 95%CI: 0.10 — 0.31, P<0.05), age (OR=1.09, 95%CI: 1.07 — 1.11, P<0.05), hemoglobin (OR=0.98, 95%CI: 0.97 — 0.98, P<0.05), platelet count (OR=0.81, 95%CI: 0.70 — 0.93, P<0.05), fasting blood glucose (OR=0.80, 95%CI: 0.71 — 0.89, P<0.05), triglycerides (OR=0.14, 95%CI: 0.07 — 0.29, P<0.05), TG/HDL-C ratio (OR=0.78, 95%CI: 0.67 — 0.91, P<0.05), TyG index (OR=5.26, 95%CI: 3.32 — 8.33), waist circumference (OR=2.50, 95%CI: 1.72 — 3.61, P<0.05), ABSI (OR=0.58, 95%CI: 0.51 — 0.66, P<0.05), and BRI (OR=0.01, 95%CI: 0.00 — 0.21, P<0.05) were independent influencing factors for intermediate- to high-risk MAFLD. Among the five models established, model 5 (incorporating sex, ALT elevation, HDL-C, TyG index, TG/HDL-C ratio, waist circumference, and ABSI) had the best performance, with an AUC of 0.917 (95%CI: 0.905 — 0.929) in the training set and 0.911 (95%CI: 0.892 — 0.930) in the validation set. The calibration curve showed that model 5 had good predictive accuracy, and the decision curve analysis confirmed its clinical practicability. ConclusionThe predictive model for MAFLD constructed based on metabolic markers and anthropometric indicators has good discriminatory ability and can be used to assess the risk of MAFLD. In addition, this study shows that waist circumference, TyG index, TG/HDL-C ratio, ABSI, and BRI are independently associated with intermediate- to high-risk MAFLD, but further studies are needed to confirm their value in predicting liver fibrosis progression.
2.Study on the Mechanism of Gegen Qinlian Decoction in Improving Diabetic Myocardial Injury
Miaomiao JIANG ; Jinping FANG ; Zongxuan HUANG ; Jiamin LI ; Huan LIAO ; Wenqiang ZHANG ; Jiaying YU ; Yanyan YANG ; Dawei LIAN
Laboratory Animal and Comparative Medicine 2026;46(5):629-639
Objective To explore the effect and mechanism of Gegen Qinlian decoction (GQD) on myocardial injury induced by high-fat diet combined with streptozotocin in type 2 diabetic mice through network pharmacology and animal experiments. MethodsNetwork pharmacology was applied to screen the potential signaling pathways of GQD in the intervention of diabetic heart disease (DHD). A total of 36 specific pathogen-free (SPF) male C57BL/6J mice aged 8 weeks were acclimatized for 1 week and randomly divided into a normal control group (n=6) and a model group (n=30). Mice in the model group were fed a 60% high-fat diet and 5% glucose water for 4 weeks, and were intraperitoneally injected with 100 mg/kg streptozotocin after 12 h of fasting to establish the type 2 diabetes model. Mice in the normal control group were given a conventional diet and drinking water, and were intraperitoneally injected with an equal volume of citrate buffer after 12 h of fasting at the same time point. After successful establishment of the diabetic mouse model, the model mice were randomly divided into five groups according to body weight: model control group, GQD low-dose group, GQD medium-dose group, GQD high-dose group, and metformin positive control group, with 6 mice in each group. After 6 weeks of intragastric administration of corresponding doses of GQD, metformin, and ddH2O respectively, all mice in the six groups (one normal control group and five model groups) were anesthetized with inhaled 2% isoflurane, blood samples were collected via eyeball enucleation, and heart tissues were harvested after euthanasia by cardiac exsanguination. Hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining and wheat germ agglutinin (WGA) staining were performed to observe the pathological damage of myocardial tissues and measure the cross-sectional area of cardiomyocytes. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to measure the levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines in serum. Immunohistochemical staining was adopted to determine the protein expression levels of receptor for advanced glycation end products (RAGE), nucleotide-binding domain leucine-rich repeat and pyrin domain-containing receptor 3 (NLRP3), and phosphorylated nuclear factor-κB p65 (p-p65) in myocardial tissues. ResultsNetwork pharmacology analysis revealed that the targets of GQD against DHD were significantly enriched in inflammatory pathways, including the advanced glycation end products (AGEs)-RAGE axis, tumor necrosis factor (TNF) and interleukin-17 (IL-17) signaling pathways. HE and WGA staining results showed that, compared with the normal control group, the model control group exhibited myocardial fiber rupture, cardiomyocyte swelling, and significantly increased cardiomyocyte cross-sectional area (P<0.05). Compared with the model control group, GQD intervention significantly ameliorated the pathological changes, including myocardial fiber rupture, cell swelling, and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy. The results of immunohistochemical staining and ELISA indicated that compared with the model control group, GQD intervention markedly downregulated the protein expression of RAGE, NLRP3, and p-p65 in myocardial tissues, as well as the levels of serum pro-inflammatory cytokines (P<0.05). ConclusionGQD can effectively alleviate myocardial pathological injury in diet-induced type 2 diabetic mice, and its mechanism may be related to inhibiting the activation of the RAGE/p-p65/NLRP3 signaling pathway and reducing myocardial inflammatory response.
3.Epidemiological characteristics of colorectal cancer in cancer registration areas of Guangdong Province in 2020
ZHANG Ying ; CHEN Yixuan ; GAO Yue ; WANG Ye ; LI Jiansen ; HAN Yutong ; WEI Wenqiang ; LIAO Yu
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(10):997-1001
Objective:
To investigate characteristics of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in registration areas of Guangdong Province in 2020, so as to provide a basis for optimizing regional prevention and control strategies.
Methods:
Data on incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in cancer registration areas of Guangdong Province in 2020 were collected from the Cancer Follow-up Registration System and the All-Cause Mortality Registration Reporting System of the Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The crude incidence, crude mortality, truncated rate for 35 to 64 years, and cumulative rate for 0 to 64 years were calculated, and standardized using the Segi's world standard population. Descriptive epidemiological methods were applied to analyze the characteristics of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality by different genders, urban/rural areas and ages.
Results:
A total of 14 771 cases of colorectal cancer were reported in Guangdong Province in 2020. The crude incidence, world population-standardized incidence, truncated incidence for 35 to 64 years and cumulative incidence for 0 to 64 years were 35.18/100 000, 24.84/100 000, 38.87/100 000 and 1.37%, respectively. A total of 5 384 deaths of colorectal cancer were reported, with crude incidence, world population-standardized incidence, truncated incidence for 35 to 64 years and cumulative incidence for 0 to 64 years were 14.55/100 000, 8.83/100 000, 10.39/100 000 and 0.37%, respectively. The crude incidence and mortality were higher in males than in females (40.35/100 000 vs. 29.88/100 000, 16.51/100 000 vs. 12.54/100 000, both P<0.05). The crude incidence and mortality were higher in urban areas than in rural areas (38.94/100 000 vs. 26.10/100 000, 16.60/100 000 vs. 10.42/100 000, both P<0.05). The crude incidence of colorectal cancer initially increased with advancing age (P<0.05), reaching a peak of 239.36/105 in the 80-<85 age group, followed by a marked decline after 85 years. The crude mortality of colorectal cancer increased with advancing age (P<0.05), reaching a peak of 174.25/100 000 in the ≥85 years age group.
Conclusions
In 2020, the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in registration areas of Guangdong Province were higher than the national averages. There were differences in the characteristics of incidence and mortality among genders, urban/areas and age. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the comprehensive prevention and control efforts for colorectal cancer in males, urban areas, and the elderly population.
4.Epidemiological characteristics of lung cancer in cancer registration areas of Guangdong Province in 2020
CHEN Yixuan ; LIAO Yu ; ZHANG Ying ; GAO Yue ; WANG Ye ; LI Jiansen ; HAN Yutong ; WEI Wenqiang ; ZENG Zhuanping
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(10):1009-1013
Objective:
To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of lung cancer in cancer registration areas of Guangdong Province in 2020, so as to provide the evidence for improving prevention and control strategies of lung cancer.
Methods:
Data of incidence and mortality in 2020 from 30 cancer registries in Guangdong Province were collected from the Cancer Follow-up Registration System and the All-Cause Mortality Registration Reporting System of the Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The crude incidence, crude mortality, and cumulative rate for 0 to 74 years were calculated. The Chinese population-standardized rate and world population-standardized rate were calculated using the age structure of the standard population from the Fifth National Population Census in 2000 and Segi's world standard population. The incidence and mortality characteristics of lung cancer in different genders, urban/rural areas and ages were described.
Results:
In 2020, there were 25 357 new cases of lung cancer in Guangdong Province. The crude incidence, Chinese population-standardized incidence, world population-standardized incidence, and cumulative incidence for 0 to 74 years were 60.40/100 000, 43.75/100 000, 43.26/100 000, and 5.30%, respectively. There were 14 366 lung cancer deaths. The crude mortality, Chinese population-standardized mortality, world population-standardized mortality, and cumulative mortality for 0 to 74 years were 38.82/100 000, 24.49/100 000, 24.36/100 000, and 2.88%, respectively. The crude incidence and crude mortality of lung cancer in males were higher than those in females (71.19/100 000 vs. 49.42/100 000, 52.94/100 000 vs. 24.36/100 000, both P<0.05). The crude incidence and crude mortality of lung cancer in urban areas were higher than those in rural areas (66.37/100 000 vs. 45.95/100 000, 40.68/100 000 vs. 35.07/100 000, both P<0.05). The crude incidence and crude mortality of lung cancer exhibited upward trends with increasing age (both P<0.05), peaking in the age of 80-<85 years (347.97/100 000 and 342.14/100 000).
Conclusions
Comparing to the national data, the incidence of lung cancer in registration areas of Guangdong Province remained relatively high, while mortality remained relatively low. Males, urban residents and the elderly constitute the key populations for lung cancer prevention and control. It is recommend to optimize the allocation of medical resources between urban and rural areas and strengthen lung cancer screening among high-risk groups.
5.CT signs and AI parameters predict colorectal cancer neoadjuvant chemotherapy efficacy
Guobin LAN ; Chuang LIU ; Hao WANG ; Hongyu MA ; Zeliang LI ; Wen CHEN ; Wenqiang ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Radiological Health 2025;34(5):713-719
Objective To explore the value of CT signs and quantitative parameters of artificial intelligence (AI) in predicting the efficacy of neoadjuvant chemotherapy for colorectal cancer. Methods A total of 349 colorectal cancer patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy at Cangzhou Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine in Hebei Province from January 2022 to January 2025 were selected and and divided into the effective group (n = 267) and the ineffective group (n = 82) according to the evaluation criteria for the efficacy of solid tumors. Conduct a CT examination and extract AI quantitative parameters from the CT images based on the lesion. The data were analyzed using SPSS21.0 software, Logistic regression was used to screen the influencing factors of ineffective neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with colorectal cancer, and separate and combined models of CT signs and AI quantitative parameters were established. The predictive effect of the model was verified by using the ROC curve, calibration curve and decision curve. Results Compared with the effective group, the proportion of regular tumor morphology and the proportion of non-enlarged lymph nodesin the ineffective group were smaller. The tumor volume, peak value and entropy value were larger (P < 0.05). Multivariable analysis showed that irregular shape (OR= 4.216), presence of lymph node enlargement (OR = 8.998), larger tumor volume (OR = 1.109), higher average CT value (OR = 1.120), elevated peak value (OR = 2.528), and increased entropy value (OR = 1.390) were independent risk factors for ineffective neoadjuvant chemotherapy in colorectal cancer (P < 0.05). The areas under the ROC curves of the individual and combined models of CT signs and AI quantitative parameters were 0.777, 0.818, and 0.877, respectively(P < 0.05). The calibration curve showed a Brier score of 0.091. The decision curve showed that the threshold was between 0.10 and 0.85, and the combined model achieved a relatively high net clinical benefit. Conclusion CT signs combined with AI quantitative parameters has a predictive value for the efficacy of neoadjuvant chemotherapy in colorectal cancer. To provide evidence-based basis for clinical screening of the population benefiting from chemotherapy and optimization of treatment strategies.
6.Deciphering the significant impact of natural glycosylation on human insulin.
Yaohao LI ; Wenqiang LIU ; Dan LIU ; Ruihan WANG ; Yajing ZHANG ; Xin LI ; Jinyuan GONG ; Shiying SHANG ; Zhongping TAN
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2025;15(11):5880-5890
In the century-long evolution of insulin pharmaceuticals, each transformative advancement in this drug class has been closely tied to the ability to obtain new insulin isoforms for research. Despite this, the recently discovered naturally occurring isoforms of glycosylated human insulin have remained largely unattainable for proper characterization. Herein, we demonstrate for the first time that total chemical synthesis can be used to generate all isoforms. This achievement required maintaining the correct positions of the interchain disulfide bonds while effectively removing protecting groups on complex glycans. Notably, the availability of seven glycoforms reveals the important effects of natural sialylated glycans in suppressing insulin self-association and enhancing its solubility, surpassing the performance of currently employed rapid-acting insulin drugs. This work not only offers a readily adaptable platform for exploring natural O-glycosylation in other therapeutic proteins and peptides but also lays the groundwork for further research into harnessing natural glycosylation for therapeutic applications.
7.ZHANG Ren's academic characteristics of acupuncture for refractory eye diseases in modern times with "homotherapy for heteropathy".
Yue MA ; Yanmei HU ; Xiaolan SHI ; Xiaoying HU ; Wenqiang HONG ; Ren ZHANG
Chinese Acupuncture & Moxibustion 2025;45(9):1311-1317
This paper introduces the academic characteristics of Professor ZHANG Ren in treatment with acupuncture for refractory eye diseases in modern times, guided by "homotherapy for heteropathy" (same therapy for different diseases sharing the same pathogenesis). The refractory eye diseases in modern times include a variety of conditions such as glaucoma, macular degeneration, diabetic retinopathy, high myopia and its complications, dry eye, cortical visual impairment and genetic eye diseases. The same therapy is used because these diseases share the similar location and pathogenesis. Professor ZHANG optimizes the methods of acupoint selection and provides the comprehensive prescriptions, "basic prescription, prescription based on disease differentiation, and supplementary prescription". A variety of acupuncture manipulation techniques are operated in clinical practice, such as compound needling methods, penetration needling, manipulations for promoting qi movement and conducting qi flow. "Early, regular and persistent" treatment is the common requirement with "the same acupoints, the same prescription and the same acupuncture method" as well as at "the same time". It is also proposed that the treatment should be provided flexibly according to the different symptoms, "identifying the differences within similarities".
Acupuncture Therapy/methods*
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Humans
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Eye Diseases/history*
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Acupuncture Points
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History, 20th Century
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China
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History, 21st Century
8.Surveillance and epidemic characteristics of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2014 to 2023
Huidong LI ; Wenqiang ZHANG ; Ruiping YU ; Yue GONG
Chinese Journal of Endemiology 2025;44(9):741-745
Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, and to provide a basis for formulating targeted intervention strategies and implementation measures.Methods:The data of brucellosis cases with onset date from 2014 to 2023 and current address in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region were collected from the Chinese Disease Control and Prevention Information System. Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the three-dimensional distribution of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.Results:From 2014 to 2023, a total of 131 201 brucellosis cases were reported in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, with no death and an average annual incidence rate of 52.90/100 000. The lowest incidence was in 2016 (6 567 cases, 26.15/100 000), and the highest was in 2021 (21 910 cases, 91.14/100 000). All 12 cities (leagues) in the region had reported cases of brucellosis, with Tongliao City (27 012 cases), Chifeng City (15 286 cases), Hinggan League (14 859 cases), Hulunbuir (12 235 cases) and Ulanqab (11 972 cases) ranking among the top 5 cities (leagues) in terms of reported cases. Among the cases, 90 455 (68.94%) were males, with a incidence rate of 70.93/100 000, and 40 746 (31.06%) were females, with a incidence rate of 33.70/100 000. The age of onset is mainly 50 and less than 60 years old (37 610 cases, 28.67%). The occupational distribution was mainly farmers (102 091 cases, 77.81%), followed by herdsmen (13 209 cases, 10.07%).Conclusions:The incidence of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is at a relatively high level, particularly showing an upward trend from 2016 to 2021. Cities such as Tongliao City, Chifeng City and Hinggan League have a relatively high incidence of brucellosis. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring of brucellosis in these areas, implement prevention and control measures, and closely monitor the changes in the trend of human brucellosis outbreaks. Farmers and herdsmen are the primary high-risk groups, and it is recommended to enhance health education and behavioral interventions for these key populations.
9.Prediction model of neoadjuvant chemotherapy effect on HER2 positive breast cancer based on MRI parameters and multimodal ultrasound
Wenqiang CUI ; Meili YU ; Tingting ZHANG ; Yongguang BAN ; Shumao ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Endocrine Surgery 2025;19(5):688-692
Objective:To establish a predictive model of neoadjuvant chemotherapy for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) positive breast cancer based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) parameters and multimodal ultrasound.Methods:The medical records of 279 patients with HER2 positive breast cancer admitted to Linyi People’s Hospital, Tai’an Central Hospital Affiliated to Qingdao University and Shandong First Medical University affiliated Provincial Hospital from Mar. 2021 to Nov. 2023 were retrospectively analyzed, and randomly divided into a training set ( n=223) and a validation set ( n=56) according to the 8∶2 law. All patients received neoadjuvant chemotherapy combined with targeted therapy and were divided into non-pathologic complete response (NpCR) and pathologic complete response (pCR) groups according to chemotherapy effect. By comparing MRI parameters and multimodal ultrasound parameters of the two groups, and the pCR risk model after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for HER2 positive breast cancer patients was constructed and verified. Results:After 3 cycles of chemotherapy, the incidence of pCR in 223 patients in the training set was 42.15%. Among 56 patients in the validation set, the incidence of pCR was 42.86%. The apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) of pCR group was higher than NpCR group ( P<0.05). The peak systolic flow velocity (PSV), resistance index (RI), maximum radial change rate, area under the curve (AUC) and peak intensity (PI) in pCR group were higher than NpCR group ( P<0.05), and the ultrasound elastic score in pCR group was lower than NpCR group ( P<0.05). ΔADC ( OR=4.141, 95% CI: 1.820-9.421), maximum diameter change rate ( OR=5.212, 95% CI: 2.291-11.857), PI ( OR=4.802, 95% CI: 2.111-10.923) and ultrasonic elasticity score ( OR=6.629, 95% CI: 1.595-8.256) were the influencing factors of pCR after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for HER2 positive breast cancer ( P<0.05). The sensitivity and specificity of pCR predicted by the training set model after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for HER2 positive breast cancer were 90.43% (95% CI: 82.15%-95.26%), 91.47% (95% CI: 84.91%-95.45%), and the AUC was 0.904 (95% CI: 0.834-0.968). Validation set model predicted the pCR sensitivity after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for HER2 positive breast cancer was 87.50% (95% CI: 66.54%-96.71), specificity was 90.63% (95% CI: 73.83%-97.55%), and AUC was 0.897 (95% CI: 0.821-0.954) . Conclusion:The histogram model based on ΔADC, maximum radial rate of lesion change, PI and ultrasonic elasticity score can be used to evaluate the risk of pCR after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for HER2 positive breast cancer.
10.Prediction model of neoadjuvant chemotherapy effect on HER2 positive breast cancer based on MRI parameters and multimodal ultrasound
Wenqiang CUI ; Meili YU ; Tingting ZHANG ; Yongguang BAN ; Shumao ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Endocrine Surgery 2025;19(5):688-692
Objective:To establish a predictive model of neoadjuvant chemotherapy for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) positive breast cancer based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) parameters and multimodal ultrasound.Methods:The medical records of 279 patients with HER2 positive breast cancer admitted to Linyi People’s Hospital, Tai’an Central Hospital Affiliated to Qingdao University and Shandong First Medical University affiliated Provincial Hospital from Mar. 2021 to Nov. 2023 were retrospectively analyzed, and randomly divided into a training set ( n=223) and a validation set ( n=56) according to the 8∶2 law. All patients received neoadjuvant chemotherapy combined with targeted therapy and were divided into non-pathologic complete response (NpCR) and pathologic complete response (pCR) groups according to chemotherapy effect. By comparing MRI parameters and multimodal ultrasound parameters of the two groups, and the pCR risk model after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for HER2 positive breast cancer patients was constructed and verified. Results:After 3 cycles of chemotherapy, the incidence of pCR in 223 patients in the training set was 42.15%. Among 56 patients in the validation set, the incidence of pCR was 42.86%. The apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) of pCR group was higher than NpCR group ( P<0.05). The peak systolic flow velocity (PSV), resistance index (RI), maximum radial change rate, area under the curve (AUC) and peak intensity (PI) in pCR group were higher than NpCR group ( P<0.05), and the ultrasound elastic score in pCR group was lower than NpCR group ( P<0.05). ΔADC ( OR=4.141, 95% CI: 1.820-9.421), maximum diameter change rate ( OR=5.212, 95% CI: 2.291-11.857), PI ( OR=4.802, 95% CI: 2.111-10.923) and ultrasonic elasticity score ( OR=6.629, 95% CI: 1.595-8.256) were the influencing factors of pCR after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for HER2 positive breast cancer ( P<0.05). The sensitivity and specificity of pCR predicted by the training set model after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for HER2 positive breast cancer were 90.43% (95% CI: 82.15%-95.26%), 91.47% (95% CI: 84.91%-95.45%), and the AUC was 0.904 (95% CI: 0.834-0.968). Validation set model predicted the pCR sensitivity after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for HER2 positive breast cancer was 87.50% (95% CI: 66.54%-96.71), specificity was 90.63% (95% CI: 73.83%-97.55%), and AUC was 0.897 (95% CI: 0.821-0.954) . Conclusion:The histogram model based on ΔADC, maximum radial rate of lesion change, PI and ultrasonic elasticity score can be used to evaluate the risk of pCR after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for HER2 positive breast cancer.


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