Objective To predict the potential distribution area of Halenia elliptica under current and future climate conditions;To provide a foundation for the sustainable utilization and cultivation of H.elliptica resources.Methods Based on 116 occurrence records and 36 environmental variables,this study employed correlation analysis and contribution rates to identify 10 key environmental factors of H.elliptica.The MaxEnt model,combined with Geographic Information Systems(GIS),was used to predict the potential suitable areas for H.elliptica under current and different future climate scenarios,and centroid shift analysis was performed using SDM_toolbox.Results The MaxEnt model predicted accurately,with an area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve of 0.968.Altitude,annual precipitation and mean temperature of the coldest season were identified as the primary influencing factors.The current suitable area for H.elliptica was approximately 176.04×104 km2.In the future climate conditions,the suitable habitat of H.elliptica will be moderately adjusted,especially in Sichuan and Xizang.Conclusion In the future,the suitable potential distribution areas for H.elliptica in China will increase,and there will be slight differences in the increment of different suitable potential distribution areas.This study can provide a basis for resource conservation and sustainable utilization,and highlight the importance of dynamic ecological monitoring in the context of global warming.

Objective To predict the potential distribution area of Halenia elliptica under current and future climate conditions;To provide a foundation for the sustainable utilization and cultivation of H.elliptica resources.Methods Based on 116 occurrence records and 36 environmental variables,this study employed correlation analysis and contribution rates to identify 10 key environmental factors of H.elliptica.The MaxEnt model,combined with Geographic Information Systems(GIS),was used to predict the potential suitable areas for H.elliptica under current and different future climate scenarios,and centroid shift analysis was performed using SDM_toolbox.Results The MaxEnt model predicted accurately,with an area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve of 0.968.Altitude,annual precipitation and mean temperature of the coldest season were identified as the primary influencing factors.The current suitable area for H.elliptica was approximately 176.04×104 km2.In the future climate conditions,the suitable habitat of H.elliptica will be moderately adjusted,especially in Sichuan and Xizang.Conclusion In the future,the suitable potential distribution areas for H.elliptica in China will increase,and there will be slight differences in the increment of different suitable potential distribution areas.This study can provide a basis for resource conservation and sustainable utilization,and highlight the importance of dynamic ecological monitoring in the context of global warming.