Objective: To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease. Methods: Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance. Results: A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October). Conclusions For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.

Objective:To report the sampling study design and radiography protocol of a large-sample investigation on skeletal maturation of 3 to 18-year-old children in China.Methods:Multi-stage stratified random sampling was employed in this study. Two provinces, municipalities, or autonomous regions were randomly selected from each of the seven regions of China, including Northeast China, Northwest China, North China, Central China, East China, Southwest China, and South China. Then one rural and one urban investigation site were randomly selected from each province, municipality, or autonomous region. In total 28 sites were included. Among those sites, four residential districts were randomly selected from each urban site, and four townships from each rural site. For each residential district or township, 1-4 kindergartens, primary schools, and middle schools were chosen. Random cluster sampling was used to extract 3-<6-year-old children in kindergartens, and 6-18-year-old children in primary schools and middle schools. The investigation on skeletal maturation was sampled proportionate to the sampling of the whole study. The estimated simple size was 780 for each site, and 21 840 for all 28 sites in total. There were six groups of 3-<6-year-old children classified at 0.5-year intervals, and 12 groups of 6-18-year-old children classified at 1-year intervals. Posteroanterior position radiography of the left hand and wrist was achieved for all subjects.Results:The study was performed from August 26, 2019 to October 16, 2021. In total, 20 444 children received posteroanterior position radiography of the left hand and wrist, including 10 196 males and 10 248 females, 9 711 urban and 10 733 rural, respectively. The 3-<6-year-old group included 1 611 (male 819, female 792) subjects, and the 6 to 18-year-old group included 18 833 (male 9 377, female 9 456) subjects.Conclusion:This nationwide investigation on skeletal maturation of 3 to 18-year-old children in seven regions of China was successfully preformed. The results of this study can provide an important reference for establishing the current evaluation criteria of bone age in Chinese children and adolescents.

Objective:To evaluate the applicability of bone age (BA) assessment methods and to investigate the difference between BA and chronological age (CA) based on the data of children in rural areas of Beijing.Methods:A total of 412 healthy children (226 boys, 186 girls) with the age 8.6 (6.8, 10.3) years old were included in this study. The data of the prospective study were from a subgroup of the project "National Nutrition and Health Systematic Survey for 0-18 Years Old Children in China", which included children with age of 3-12 years old in Beijing rural areas. The non-dominant hand-wrist radiographs of all participants were obtained in April 2021. The Dr.Wise BA detection and analysis system was used to assess the BA according to the Tanner Whitehouse 3 (TW3) radius-ulna-short bone score (TW3-RUS), TW3 carpal bone score (TW3-Carpal), China-05 TW3-Chinese RUS (TW3-C RUS), China-05 TW3-Chinese carpal (TW3-C Carpal), and Greulich-Pyle (G-P) standards. The cases were stratified by the sex and different CA in the statistical analysis. The estimated BA obtained using different methods were compared with the CA using Wilcoxon signed ranks test.Results:The sex-stratified results showed that no significant difference was found between the estimated BA using G-P standards and CA in boys ( Z=-0.694, P=0.488), while all the other estimated BA results were statistically significantly higher than CA ( P<0.05). Stratified by both sex and CA, the estimated BA using G-P standards in 4-6 years old boy groups, as well as the estimated BA using TW3-Carpal and TW3-C Carpal standards in 11-12 years old girl groups were lower than CA, while in the other groups, the estimated BA were higher than CA. Conclusions:There were varying degrees of deviations in the BA estimations using TW3, China 05, and G-P methods for children in rural areas of Beijing. It is imperative to establish a new standard for the BA evaluation of the contemporary Chinese children.

Objective:To evaluate the efficacy and safety of SPOT (GI Supply, USA), a new carbon-based permanent marker approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), in the endoscopic marking for gastrointestinal lesions.Methods:A total of 115 patients with gastrointestinal lesions who underwent endoscopic treatment or surgery in Beijing Friendship Hospital or Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital from April 2019 to November 2019 were enrolled in the study. SPOT was used to mark the lesions, and marking points were found during endoscopic treatment or surgery to calculate the effective marking rate by single-group target value method. Adverse events after marking were recorded, and the changes of blood routine test, liver and kidney functions before and after marking were compared.Results:The effective rate of endoscopic marking with SPOT was 99.13% (114/115). The longest marking time was 57 days. There was no puncture of intestinal wall or injection into abdominal cavity during the marking process. One patient developed mild fever after marking. The incidence of adverse events was 23.48% (27/115), which were all unrelated to the test equipment. There was no significant difference in blood routine tests or liver and kidney functions before and after marking ( P>0.05). Conclusion:SPOT produced by GI Supply can effectively mark gastrointestinal lesions without serious adverse events, which meets the requirements of clinical use.

Objective: To explore the prevalence and related factors of depressive symptoms in Chinese college students before and after the COVID-19 epidemic and to provide a reference for mental health education and management. Methods: Database of PubMed, Cochrane, CBM, WanFang, CNKI and CIP were searched for the studies on depressive symptoms in Chinese college students using the Self Rating Depression Scale (SDS) or the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). All the literatures were classified according to the publication time before and after the epidemic around January 2020. Meta analysis was performed by using Stata15.1. Results: There were 26 articles before the epidemic, with a total sample size of 76 816 participants, and 18 articles after the epidemic, with a total sample size of 102 653 participants . The detection rate of depressive symptoms in college students after the epidemic was higher than that before the epidemic (35.7%, 30.9%). Fifteen factors were included in the Meta analysis. There was a positive correlation between being third year in college and college students before the epidemic ( OR = 1.27 ). Before and after the epidemic, being fourth year in college，introvert personality，breakfast skipping，physically unhealthy，poor family economy，single parent，staying up late and poor sleep quality were all positively correlated with depression of college students ( OR =1.44，1.35；1.68，2.01；3.33，3.03；2.21，4.99；1.80，1.89；2.33，1.92；1.53，3.08；2.23，2.97), while high social support and physical exercise were negatively correlated with depression for depressive symptoms in college students( OR =0.57,0.55; 0.78, 0.60 )（ P ＜0.05）. Conclusion The detection rate of depressive symptoms among college students after the epidemic is higher. The effect of introversion, physical exercise, physically unhealthy, poor sleep quality and staying up late are higher after pandemic compared than before the epidemic. The targeted mental intervention and health education should be strengthened.

Objective    To explore whether surgery combined with adjuvant chemotherapy can bring survival benefits to patients with cervical and upper thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Methods    The clinical data of patients with cervical and upper thoracic ESCC who underwent R0 resection and neck anastomosis in our department from 2006 to 2010 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients received neoadjuvant therapy or adjuvant radiotherapy were excluded. The adjuvant chemotherapy group was given a combination of taxanes and platinum based chemotherapy after surgery; the surgery alone group did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to analyze the survival difference between the adjuvant chemotherapy group and the surgery alone group. Results    A total of 181 patients were enrolled, including 141 (77.9%) males and 40 (22.1%) females, with an average age of 61.0±8.2 years (80 patients aged≤61 years, 101 patients aged>61 years). There were 70 (38.7%) patients of cervical ESCC, and 111 (61.3%) patients of upper thoracic ESCC. Eighty-seven (48.1%) patients underwent postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy, and 94 (51.9%) patients underwent surgery alone, and the basic clinical characteristics were well balanced between the two groups (P>0.05). The median survival time of patients in the adjuvant chemotherapy group and the surgery alone group was 31.93 months and 26.07 months, and the 5-year survival rate was 35.0% and 32.0%, respectively (P=0.227). There was no statistical difference in median survival time between the cervical ESCC and upper thoracic ESCC group (31.83 months vs. 29.76 months, P=0.763). For cervical ESCC patients, the median survival time was 45.07 months in the adjuvant chemotherapy group and 14.70 months in the surgery alone group (P=0.074). Further analysis showed that the median survival time of lymph node negative group was 32.53 months, and the lymph node positive group was 24.57 months (P=0.356). The median survival time was 30.43 months in the lymph-node positive group with adjuvant chemotherapy and 17.77 months in the lymph-node positive group with surgery alone. The survival curve showed a trend of difference, but the difference was not statistically significant (P=0.557). Conclusion    There is no statistical difference in the long-term survival of cervical and upper thoracic ESCC patients after R0 resection. Postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy may have survival benefits for patients with cervical ESCC and upper ESCC with postoperative positive lymph nodes, but the differences are not statistically significant in this setting.

Objective:To study the detection value of platelet activation indexes and platelet parameters in patients with hepatitis B-induced cirrhosis.Methods:40 patients with hepatitis B-induced cirrhosis in our hospital from November 2015 to August 2016 were selected as the observation group.40 healthy subjects went through physical examination during the same period were chosen as the control group.The platelet activation indexes and platelet parameters of subjects with same age in two groups were detected and compared.The detection results of the two items in patients with different stages of hepatitis B-induced cirrhosis were compared,too.Results:The PLT of observation group was lower than that of control group,while the other platelet parameters and platelet activation indexes were all higher than those of control group.The detection results of two items in patients with different stages of hepatitis B-induced cirrhosis were with significant differences,all P＜0.05.Conclusion:The platelet activation indexes and platelet parameters in patients with hepatitis B-induced cirrhosis are obviously abnormally expressed.There are significant differences among the detection results in patients with different stages.Therefore,surveillance of those indexes in patients with hepatitis B-induced cirrhosis should be strengthened.

Objective:To investigate the effect of silver diamine fluoride(SDF)on the bonding strength between dentine and glass ion-omer cement(GIC).Methods:1 2 extracted sound molars were prepared into dintine samples and distributed into sound dentine group and demineralized dentine group.According to the treatment methods,the samples in each group were respectively divided into 3 sub-groups:A(control group),B[coated with 38% Ag(NH3 )F2 ]and C(SDF treatment with additional lighting-curing)(n =20).Then a hand-mixed conventional glass ionomer cement Fuji IX was placed on the dentine surface.After 24 h,micro tensile bond strength test and scanning electron microscope (SEM)analysis were conducted.Results:The bonding strength of demineralized dentine was higher than that of sound dentine(P <0.01 ).SDF with additional lighting-curing treated dentine showed a higer bonding strength value than only SDF treated dentin(P <0.01 ).Conclusion:SDF may improve the bonding between dentine and GIC.

Objective To explore the value of amplitude-integrated electroencephalography(aEEG) in diagnosis and prognosis in term newborns with brain injury.Methods One hundred and thirty consecutive patients with brain injury admitted in NICU were prospectively enrolled in the study from Nov 2013to Apr 2015.The monitoring of aEEG was done at 1d,4d,7d,respectively.Clinical data were collected and com-pared with the result of aEEG.Results All the cases of newborns with abnormal aEEG background:discon-tinuous voltage(109cases),continuous low voltage(12cases),flat(4cases).The epileptic activity were re-corded in 33cases,and 15cases showed burst-suppression;sleep wake cycle:mature(32cases),immature (54cases),no sleep wake cycle(39cases).The judgment of abnormal level:70cases had mildly abnormal aEEG,severe abnormalities 60cases,and no significant difference in different types of diseases(x2=6.176, P=0.19).Recent prognosis:the death of mild and severe abnormalities were 1case,12cases,respectively, there were significant differences(x2=12.76,P﹤0.001).Developmental quotient(DQ)of these newborns were followed up for more than 6months,and there were significant differences in mild,severe abnormal aEEG in them with DQ≥85and DQ﹤85(x2=33.195,P﹤0.001).The sensitivity of aEEG in severe abnor-mal aEEG was 68.75%,the specificity was 78.68%,and the positive and negative predictive values of aEEG were 77.19%and 70.58%,respectively.The results of aEEG classification and sleep wake cycle were corre-lated with the prognosis of the patients(r=0.505,0.507,respectively,P﹤0.001).Conclusion aEEG can be used to monitor brain function,and it is helpful to evaluation of early diagnosis and prognosis.

Objective To establish the solid phase extraction (SPE) with GC/MS technology for fish poi-soning cases to determine five pesticides in fishpond. Methods By three solid phase extraction column including Oasis HLB cartridge, Bond Elut C18 and SampliQ C18, the recovery rate was compared to ex-tract and purify five pesticides in fishpond. The effects of different kinds and dosages of eluents on ex-tract rate were also reviewed. Results Using Bond Elut C18 as solid phase extraction column and 3 mL benzene as eluent, the linear range of mass concentration of five pesticides in fishpond was 1-50 μg/mL, and the correlation coefficient was 0.996 2-0.999 6. The limit of detection was 3.4-26 μg/L and the re-covery was 61.49%-102.48%. The relative standard deviations was less than or equal to 3.01%. Conclu-sion With high sensitivity, good accuracy and precision, SPE -GC/MS has simple and quick operation and less solvent. It can be applied to determination of five pesticides in fishpond.