Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.

OBJECTIVE:Postoperative recurrence is a common complication of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy for lumbar disc herniation,which can significantly increase the risk of reoperation.A well-performing risk prediction model can help identify high-risk groups early and prevent postoperative recurrence.This study systematically evaluated the risk prediction model for postoperative recurrence after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy to provide a reference for surgical decision-making.METHODS:The PubMed,Embase,Web of Science,CNKI,WanFang Data,VIP,and CBM were electronically searched to collect studies on the recurrence risk prediction models after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy from inception to July 1,2024.Two reviewers independently screened the literature and extracted data.The models' risk of bias,applicability,and report quality were assessed using prediction model risk of bias assessment tool(PROBAST)and Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis(TRIPOD)tools,respectively.Meta-analysis of postoperative recurrence rate of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy and related predictors was performed using Revman 5.4 software.RESULTS:(1)A total of 15 studies were included,all of which were retrospective studies,including 24 models for predicting the risk of recurrence after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy.(2)The PROBAST evaluation results indicated that all 15 studies exhibited a high risk of bias.Regarding applicability,two studies demonstrated a low risk,while 13 presented a high risk.(3)Regarding the TRIPOD reporting quality,the overall quality across the 15 studies was low.The primary reasons for this low compliance included the failure to report blinding,a lack of explanation for the sample size calculation method,lack of detailed description of missing data processing methods,and lack of information such as introduction to the model used.(4)Furthermore,the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model ranged from 0.684 to 0.972,with the number of potential predictor variables varying from 15 to 28.(5)The results of meta-analysis showed that the postoperative recurrence rate of lumbar disc herniation patients treated with percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy was 12％(95％CI=9.0％-15.0％),Modic changes(OR=6.72,95％CI=3.90-11.59),body mass index(OR=1.28,95％CI=1.10-1.49),work intensity(OR=3.22,95％CI=1.85-5.59),age(OR=2.28,95％CI=1.50-3.48),and smoking history(OR=2.65,95％CI=1.75-4.00)were independent influencing factors for postoperative recurrence of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy(all P＜0.05).CONCLUSION:The overall predictive performance of the recurrence risk prediction models after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy is satisfactory;however,the model exhibits a high overall risk of bias and applicability,coupled with low reporting quality.Additionally,there is a lack of prospective research and external validation.Future,risk prediction models should consider factors such as Modic changes,body mass index,work intensity,age,and smoking history as potential predictors.

OBJECTIVE:Postoperative recurrence is a common complication of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy for lumbar disc herniation,which can significantly increase the risk of reoperation.A well-performing risk prediction model can help identify high-risk groups early and prevent postoperative recurrence.This study systematically evaluated the risk prediction model for postoperative recurrence after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy to provide a reference for surgical decision-making.METHODS:The PubMed,Embase,Web of Science,CNKI,WanFang Data,VIP,and CBM were electronically searched to collect studies on the recurrence risk prediction models after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy from inception to July 1,2024.Two reviewers independently screened the literature and extracted data.The models' risk of bias,applicability,and report quality were assessed using prediction model risk of bias assessment tool(PROBAST)and Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis(TRIPOD)tools,respectively.Meta-analysis of postoperative recurrence rate of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy and related predictors was performed using Revman 5.4 software.RESULTS:(1)A total of 15 studies were included,all of which were retrospective studies,including 24 models for predicting the risk of recurrence after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy.(2)The PROBAST evaluation results indicated that all 15 studies exhibited a high risk of bias.Regarding applicability,two studies demonstrated a low risk,while 13 presented a high risk.(3)Regarding the TRIPOD reporting quality,the overall quality across the 15 studies was low.The primary reasons for this low compliance included the failure to report blinding,a lack of explanation for the sample size calculation method,lack of detailed description of missing data processing methods,and lack of information such as introduction to the model used.(4)Furthermore,the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model ranged from 0.684 to 0.972,with the number of potential predictor variables varying from 15 to 28.(5)The results of meta-analysis showed that the postoperative recurrence rate of lumbar disc herniation patients treated with percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy was 12％(95％CI=9.0％-15.0％),Modic changes(OR=6.72,95％CI=3.90-11.59),body mass index(OR=1.28,95％CI=1.10-1.49),work intensity(OR=3.22,95％CI=1.85-5.59),age(OR=2.28,95％CI=1.50-3.48),and smoking history(OR=2.65,95％CI=1.75-4.00)were independent influencing factors for postoperative recurrence of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy(all P＜0.05).CONCLUSION:The overall predictive performance of the recurrence risk prediction models after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy is satisfactory;however,the model exhibits a high overall risk of bias and applicability,coupled with low reporting quality.Additionally,there is a lack of prospective research and external validation.Future,risk prediction models should consider factors such as Modic changes,body mass index,work intensity,age,and smoking history as potential predictors.

Ischemic stroke (IS) is a globally life-threatening disease. Presently, few therapeutic medicines are available for treating IS, and rt-PA is the only drug approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the US. In fact, many agents showing excellent neuroprotection but no blood flow-improving activity in animals have not achieved ideal clinical efficacy, while thrombolytic drugs only improving blood flow without neuroprotection have limited their wider application. To address these challenges and meet the huge unmet clinical need, we have designed and identified a novel compound AAPB with dual effects of neuroprotection and cerebral blood flow improvement. AAPB significantly reduced cerebral infarction and neural function deficit in tMCAO rats, pMCAO rats, and IS rhesus monkeys, as well as displayed exceptional safety profiles and excellent pharmacokinetic properties in rats and dogs. AAPB has now entered phase I of clinical trials fighting IS in China.

Objective:To evaluate the efficacy of an etoposide (Vp16) -intensified conditioning regimen in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) for the treatment of relapsed/refractory acute myeloid leukemia (AML).Method:A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 27 recipients with relapsed/refractory AML who underwent allo-HSCT using a Vp16-intensified conditioning regimen at Aerospace Center Hospital from January 2019 to January 2022. Transplantation-related complications and treatment outcomes were observed. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to assess the overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) rates.Result:Among the 27 recipients, there were 14 males and 13 females, with a median age of 41 years (range: 12~55 years). Except for one recipient who experienced primary graft failure, the remaining 26 recipients achieved hematopoietic reconstitution. The median neutrophil and platelet engraftment times were 13 days (range: 9~20 days) and 13.5 days (range: 11~33 days), respectively. Regimen-related toxicity (RRT) was mainly gastrointestinal toxicity and oral mucositis, and no deaths were attributed to RRT. A total of 12 recipients (44.44%) developed acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD), of whom 3 cases (11.11%) had grade III~IV aGVHD. Chronic GVHD (cGVHD) occurred in 13 recipients (48.15%), including 8 cases (29.63%) of extensive cGVHD. The median follow-up time after transplantation was 17 months (range: 1~48 months). Fifteen recipients (55.56%) survived without disease, while 12 recipients (44.44%) died— 9 due to relapse and 3 due to transplant-related complications. The 1-year overall survival and DFS rates were 74.07% and 59.26%, respectively; the 2-year overall survival and DFS rates were 59.26% and 55.56%, respectively. The 2-year relapse rate and transplant-related mortality (TRM) were 33.33% and 11.11%, respectively.Conclusion:The Vp16-intensified conditioning regimen in allo-HSCT appears to be a viable treatment option for patients with relapsed/refractory AML, offering favorable efficacy and manageable safety.

In order to further standardize the vaccination of kidney transplant candidates and recipients in China, the Branch of Organ Transplantation of Chinese Medical Association has organized experts in kidney transplantation and infectious diseases. Based on the "Vaccination of Solid Organ Transplant Candidates and Recipients: Guidelines from the American Society of Transplantation Infectious Diseases Community of Practice", and in combination with the clinical reality of infectious diseases and vaccination after organ transplantation in China, as well as referring to relevant recommendations from home and abroad in recent years, these guidelines are formulated from aspects such as epidemiology, types of vaccines, vaccination principles, target population, and specific vaccine administration. The "Guidelines for Vaccination of Kidney Transplant Candidates and Recipients in China" aims to provide theoretical reference for medical workers in the field of kidney transplantation in China, regarding the vaccination of kidney transplant candidates and recipients. It is expected to better guide the vaccination of kidney transplant candidates and recipients, reduce the risk of postoperative infection, and improve survival outcomes.

Objective: To analyze the status and trends of the disease burden of periodontal disease among women of reproductive age (15-49 years) in China from 1990 to 2021, and to provide a reference for the development of periodontal disease prevention and control strategies for women of reproductive age. Methods: Using the global burden of disease (GBD) data from 1990 to 2021, this study investigated the periodontal disease burden among women of reproductive age, including prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), DALY rates, and their corresponding standardized indicators. Joinpoint 5.2.0.0 software was used for time trend analysis of DALYs, age-specific DALY rates, and annual average percentage change (AAPC) values. A log-linear regression model was used to test trends for DALYs and DALY rates. Results: Compared with 1990, the prevalence and incidence of periodontal disease among Chinese women in 2021 increased by 45.67% (per 100,000 people) and 29.29% (per 100,000 people), respectively. The distribution of periodontal disease among women (15-49 years) showed a continuous and rapid upward trend, with the growth rate increasing rapidly with age. The number of cases increased the fastest in the 45-49 age group, and the prevalence increased the fastest in the 35-44 age group. The incidence of periodontal disease continued to rise with age, with the fastest increase in the 35-44 age group among women of reproductive age. The Joinpoint regression model results showed that periodontal disease led to an expanding trend in the disease burden among women of reproductive age in China, with an AAPC of DALYs = 1.20% and an AAPC of DALY rate = 1.25% (P<0.001). Conclusion The periodontal disease burden among Chinese women aged 15-49 years showed a gradually increasing trend from 1990 to 2021.

Background Non-optimal temperatures pose significant threats to public health. Analyzing the association between temperature exposure and the number of emergency cases of acute alcohol intoxication can provide evidence for optimizing emergency resource allocation and response strategies. Objective To analyze the overall impact and lag effects of non-optimal temperatures on the number of 120 emergency calls for acute alcohol intoxication in Wuxi, and to assess the attributable risk, in order to provide empirical evidence for formulating climate-adaptive public health strategies. Methods Call records of acute alcohol intoxication from Wuxi's 120 emergency service, concurrent air pollutant data, and meteorological data (including daily mean temperature) were collected from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2020. Distributed lag nonlinear modeling was used for time-series analysis, with cross-basis functions to capture the nonlinear relationship and lag effects between temperature and emergency volume. Confounding factors such as long-term trends, humidity, pollutants [ultimately including ozone (O₃) and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5)], day of the week, and holidays were controlled. The maximum lag period was set to 14 days. Single-day lag and cumulative lag effects of extreme temperatures were analyzed, followed by sensitivity analysis. Effects were quantified using relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI), and attributable fractions and numbers for different temperature ranges were calculated. Results A total of 10705 emergency cases of acute alcohol intoxication were included during the study period, with males accounting for 89.5% and individuals aged 18–50 years accounting for 83.4%. A non-linear "U-shaped" association was observed between daily mean temperature and the number of emergency calls, with an optimal temperature of 13.3 ℃. The effect of the extreme low temperature (1.88 ℃) was statistically significant from lag1 to lag3 after exposure (P<0.05), with the maximum effect at lag1 (RR=1.063, 95%CI: 1.002, 1.129). The extreme high temperature (32.3 ℃) showed an immediate effect, with maximum effect at lag0 (RR=1.374, 95%CI: 1.248, 1.512). The cumulative effect analysis showed that the risk associated with high temperature was the highest at lag0–3 (RR=2.000, 95%CI: 1.667, 2.399), while the risk associated with low temperature was the highest at lag0–14 (RR=1.462, 95%CI: 1.042, 2.051). The attribution analysis indicated that the mild heat (>24.7–30.8 ℃) and heat (>30.8–33.5 ℃) contributed the largest numbers of attributable cases, with 591 cases (95%CI: 56, 1032) and 190 cases (95%CI: 51, 309), respectively. The corresponding attributable fractions were 5.81% (95%CI: 0.80%, 9.94%) and 1.87% (95%CI: 0.49%, 2.96%), respectively. Conclusion Both extreme high and low temperatures significantly increase the number of 120 emergency calls for acute alcohol intoxication in Wuxi. High temperature exhibit an acute effect, while low temperature show a delayed effect. Mild heat have a significant impact on the emergency burden. It is recommended that emergency departments optimize resource allocation according to climatic characteristics and strengthen emergency responses during extreme weather to reduce alcohol-related health burden.

ObjectiveTo explore whether fluoroethylnormemantine （FENM）， an NMDA receptor antagonist， could improve compulsive-like behaviors and to investigate its underlying mechanisms in the RU24969-induced obsessive-compulsive disorder （OCD） mouse model. MethodsThirty-two mice were randomly assigned to four groups： Saline （n=8）， RU24969 （n=8）， RU+FENM （n=8）， and FENM （n=8）. Mice received FENM or an equivalent volume of saline for pre-treatment， followed by RU24969 or saline for model induction 30 minutes later. Behavioral tests were performed 1 hour after modeling， and serum samples were collected to measure the level of brain-derived neurotrophic factor （BDNF）. Evans Blue dye was intravenously injected to assess dye content in brain tissue， thereby evaluating potential blood-brain barrier damage. ResultsFENM treatment significantly improved repetitive stereotyped circling behavior （F=39.850， P＜0.001） and alleviated persistent motor activity （F=50.200， P＜0.001） in RU24969 model mice. Additionally， FENM treatment significantly increased serum BDNF level in RU24969-induced OCD mice （F=18.930， P＜0.001）. ConclusionsFENM ， an NMDA receptor antagonist， may alleviate compulsive behaviors in OCD mice by modulating BDNF levels ， thereby exerting anti-compulsive effects. Neither the RU24969 model nor FENM treatment significantly affectes blood-brain barrier integrity.

Objective To investigate the prevalence of scoliosis and congenital heart disease(CHD)and their correlation among children and adolescents of Drung nationality in Yunnan Province.Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted in November 2022 among all Drung school-aged children and adolescents aged 5-18 years in Gongshan Drung and Nu Autonomous County,Yunnan Province.Visual inspection,Adams for-ward flexion test,and trunk rotation angle(ATR)measurement were comprehensively used for school prelim-inary screening of scoliosis.Individuals who tested positive in the school preliminary screening underwent fur-ther X-ray examination for auxiliary diagnosis.Cardiac auscultation and echocardiography were used for school preliminary screening of CHD.The personal information of the screening subjects,the screening results,etc.were recorded.The prevalence of scoliosis and CHD among children and adolescents of the Drung nationality and the relationship between the two diseases were statistically analyzed,and the positive predictive value of school-based scoliosis screening and its influencing factors were also analyzed.Results A total of 1 036 chil-dren and adolescents of Drung nationality were enrolled,with a mean age of(10.72±3.75)years,icluding 542 males and 494 females.A total of 45 subjects tested positive for scoliosis in the school preliminary screening,with a preliminary positive rate of 4.34%.A total of 22 cases were finally diagnosed with scoliosis,with a prevalence rate of 2.12%.Among them,21 cases were idiopathic scoliosis(accounting for 95.45%),and 1 case was congenital scoliosis(accounting for 4.55%).The prevalence rate was higher in females(2.83%)than that in males(1.48%),higher in the 10 to 18-year-old group(2.30%)than that in the 5 to<10-year-old group(1.87%),and higher in the secondary school group(2.78%)than that in the primary school group(1.78%),hut there were no statistically significant differences(P>0.05).Most idiopathic scoliosis cases were mild(Cobb angle 10° to<20°,90.48%)and classified as Lenke type Ⅴ(57.14%).Two cases of CHD were confirmed,both of which were atrial septal defects,with a prevalence rate of 0.19%.The co-occurrence rate of idiopathic scoliosis and CHD was 4.76%(1/21).The positive predictive value of school-based scoliosis pre-liminary screening was only 48.89%.When the BMI was<18.5 kg/m2,the positive predictive value was sig-nificantly higher than that for BMI≥18.5 kg/m2(P<0.05).Conclusion The prevalence rate of scoliosis a-mong adolescents of the Drung ethnic group in Yunnan Province is 2.12%,predominantly idiopathic scoliosis,with Lenke type V being the most common classification.The prevalence rate of congenital heart disease is 0.19%.BMI is a significant influencing factor for the positive predictive value of school-based scoliosis prelimi-nary screening.