1.Mechanism of Syngnathus extract in treating knee osteoarthritis of rats via regulating PI3K/Akt/mTOR signaling pathway.
Quan-Wei ZHENG ; Guo-Wei WANG ; Si-Xian WU ; Tao ZHUO ; Yi HE ; Jian-Hang LIU
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(9):2442-2449
To investigate the mechanism of action of Syngnathus extract in treating knee osteoarthritis of rats, forty-eight male SD rats were randomly divided into the blank group, model group, positive drug group, as well as low-dose, medium-dose, and high-dose groups of Syngnathus extract. The rat model of knee osteoarthritis was constructed by intra-articular injection of sodium iodoacetate. After successful modeling, celecoxib(18 mg·kg~(-1)·d~(-1)) and Syngnathus extract(0.4, 0.8, and 1.6 g·kg~(-1)·d~(-1)) were given in different groups by gavage intervention for two weeks. Hematoxylin-eosin(HE) staining was used to observe the histopathological changes of cartilage in knee joints, and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA) was used to detect the expression level of inflammatory factors in serum. Real-time fluorescence quantitative PCR, Western blot, and immunohistochemistry were used to detect the levels of phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase(PI3K)/protein kinase B(Akt)/mammalian target protein of rapamycin(mTOR) pathway-related mRNA and protein expression. The results showed that, comparied with the blank group, the cartilage surface of the knee joints of rats in the model group was uneven, with disorganized levels and defective cartilage tissue. The serum levels of interleukin-1β(IL-1β), interleukin-6(IL-6), and tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α) and the mRNA levels of PI3K, Akt, and mTOR in cartilage tissue, as well as the protein expression levels of phosphorylated PI3K(p-PI3K)/PI3K, phosphorylated Akt(p-Akt)/Akt, phosphorylated mTOR(p-mTOR)/mTOR, and P62 were significantly increased. Beclin1 protein expression was decreased. Comparied with the model group, the number of chondrocytes in the knee joint of rats in each group of Syngnathus extract increased, and the arrangement of chondrocytes was relatively neat. The cartilage layer was restored, and the serum levels of IL-1β, IL-6, and TNF-α, as well as the mRNA expression levels of PI3K, Akt, and mTOR in cartilage tissue were significantly reduced. The protein expression levels of p-PI3K/PI3K, p-Akt/Akt, p-mTOR/mTOR, and P62 were significantly reduced in the rats in the middle-dose and high-dose groups of Syngnathus extract, and the Beclin1 protein expression was significantly increased. The protein expression levels of p-PI3K/PI3K, p-Akt/Akt, and P62 in rats in the low-dose group of Syngnathus extract were significantly reduced. In summary, Syngnathus extract may be used to treat knee osteoarthritis by inhibiting the expression of PI3K/Akt/mTOR signaling pathway, so as to alleviate the inflammatory response in the organism, enhance the autophagy activity of chondrocytes, and reduce the apoptosis of chondrocytes.
Animals
;
TOR Serine-Threonine Kinases/genetics*
;
Male
;
Rats, Sprague-Dawley
;
Signal Transduction/drug effects*
;
Proto-Oncogene Proteins c-akt/genetics*
;
Rats
;
Osteoarthritis, Knee/metabolism*
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
;
Phosphatidylinositol 3-Kinases/genetics*
;
Humans
2.Mechanism of Hippocampus in treatment of knee osteoarthritis based on network pharmacology, molecular docking, and experimental verification.
Tao ZHUO ; Guo-Wei WANG ; Si-Xian WU ; Quan-Wei ZHENG ; Yi HE ; Jian-Hang LIU
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(14):4026-4036
This study predicts the potential mechanism of Hippocampus in the treatment of knee osteoarthritis(KOA) through network pharmacology, with preliminary verification using molecular docking and animal experiments. The database was used to screen the active chemical components of Hippocampus and the targets of KOA, and Gene Ontology(GO) functional analysis, Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes(KEGG) pathway enrichment analysis, and molecular docking were performed on the relevant core targets to preliminarily explore the potential targets and mechanisms of Hippocampus in the treatment of KOA. A rat KOA model was constructed by intra-articular injection of sodium iodoacetate, and the rats were intervened with different doses of Hippocampus decoction and celecoxib. The expression of relevant targets was detected through hematoxylin-eosin(HE) staining, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay(ELISA), RT-qPCR, and Western blot to further validate the network pharmacology results. A total of 23 drug-like components of the Hippocampus were screened, and 128 common targets with KOA were identified, involving interleukin-17(IL-17) signaling pathway, transcription factor(FoxO) signaling pathway, tumor necrosis factor(TNF) signaling pathway. Molecular docking results showed that the screened core chemical components exhibited good affinity with key targets. HE staining demonstrated that Hippocampus improved the morphology of the cartilage layer. ELISA confirmed that Hippocampus significantly reduced the levels of IL-6 and TNF-α in the serum of KOA rats. Western blot and RT-qPCR analysis showed that Hippocampus significantly reduced the expression of IL-6, TNF-α, matrix metalloproteinase(MMP) 13, IL-17A, nuclear factor κB activator 1(ACT1), tumor necrosis factor receptor-associated factor 6(TRAF6) and nuclear factor κB(NF-κB) in cartilage tissue. The results suggest that Hippocampus can alleviate the degree of joint damage in the KOA rat model induced by sodium iodoacetate. The mechanism of action is related to the inhibition of the IL-17 signaling pathway, reduction of inflammation, and inhibition of extracellular matrix(ECM) degradation.
Animals
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Molecular Docking Simulation
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Rats
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
;
Network Pharmacology
;
Male
;
Osteoarthritis, Knee/metabolism*
;
Rats, Sprague-Dawley
;
Signal Transduction/drug effects*
;
Humans
;
Interleukin-17/metabolism*
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Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha/metabolism*
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Disease Models, Animal
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Hippocampus/chemistry*
3.Research on intelligent fetal heart monitoring model based on deep active learning.
Bin QUAN ; Yajing HUANG ; Yanfang LI ; Qinqun CHEN ; Honglai ZHANG ; Li LI ; Guiqing LIU ; Hang WEI
Journal of Biomedical Engineering 2025;42(1):57-64
Cardiotocography (CTG) is a non-invasive and important tool for diagnosing fetal distress during pregnancy. To meet the needs of intelligent fetal heart monitoring based on deep learning, this paper proposes a TWD-MOAL deep active learning algorithm based on the three-way decision (TWD) theory and multi-objective optimization Active Learning (MOAL). During the training process of a convolutional neural network (CNN) classification model, the algorithm incorporates the TWD theory to select high-confidence samples as pseudo-labeled samples in a fine-grained batch processing mode, meanwhile low-confidence samples annotated by obstetrics experts were also considered. The TWD-MOAL algorithm proposed in this paper was validated on a dataset of 16 355 prenatal CTG records collected by our group. Experimental results showed that the algorithm proposed in this paper achieved an accuracy of 80.63% using only 40% of the labeled samples, and in terms of various indicators, it performed better than the existing active learning algorithms under other frameworks. The study has shown that the intelligent fetal heart monitoring model based on TWD-MOAL proposed in this paper is reasonable and feasible. The algorithm significantly reduces the time and cost of labeling by obstetric experts and effectively solves the problem of data imbalance in CTG signal data in clinic, which is of great significance for assisting obstetrician in interpretations CTG signals and realizing intelligence fetal monitoring.
Humans
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Pregnancy
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Female
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Cardiotocography/methods*
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Deep Learning
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Neural Networks, Computer
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Algorithms
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Fetal Monitoring/methods*
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Heart Rate, Fetal
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Fetal Distress/diagnosis*
;
Fetal Heart/physiology*
4.Plasma club cell secretory protein reflects early lung injury: comprehensive epidemiological evidence.
Jiajun WEI ; Jinyu WU ; Hongyue KONG ; Liuquan JIANG ; Yong WANG ; Ying GUO ; Quan FENG ; Jisheng NIE ; Yiwei SHI ; Xinri ZHANG ; Xiaomei KONG ; Xiao YU ; Gaisheng LIU ; Fan YANG ; Jun DONG ; Jin YANG
Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;30():26-26
BACKGROUND:
It is inaccurate to reflect the level of dust exposure through working years. Furthermore, identifying a predictive indicator for lung function decline is significant for coal miners. The study aimed to explored whether club cell secretory protein (CC16) levels can reflect early lung function changes.
METHODS:
The cumulative respiratory dust exposure (CDE) levels of 1,461 coal miners were retrospectively assessed by constructed a job-exposure matrix to replace working years. Important factors affecting lung function and CC16 were selected by establishing random forest models. Subsequently, the potential of CC16 to reflect lung injury was explored from multiple perspectives. First, restricted cubic spline (RCS) models were used to compare the trends of changes in lung function indicators and plasma CC16 levels after dust exposure. Then mediating analysis was performed to investigate the role of CC16 in the association between dust exposure and lung function decline. Finally, the association between baseline CC16 levels and follow-up lung function was explored.
RESULTS:
The median CDE were 35.13 mg/m3-years. RCS models revealed a rapid decline in forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1), and their percentages of predicted values when CDE exceeded 25 mg/m3-years. The dust exposure level (<5 mg/m3-years) causing significant changes in CC16 was much lower than the level (25 mg/m3-years) that caused changes in lung function indicators. CC16 mediated 11.1% to 26.0% of dust-related lung function decline. Additionally, workers with low baseline CC16 levels experienced greater reductions in lung function in the future.
CONCLUSIONS
CC16 levels are more sensitive than lung indicators in reflecting early lung function injury and plays mediating role in lung function decline induced by dust exposure. Low baseline CC16 levels predict poor future lung function.
Uteroglobin/blood*
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Humans
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Dust/analysis*
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Occupational Exposure/analysis*
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Male
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Middle Aged
;
Adult
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Retrospective Studies
;
Lung Injury/chemically induced*
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Coal Mining
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Biomarkers/blood*
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China/epidemiology*
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Air Pollutants, Occupational
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Female
5.Glucocorticoid Discontinuation in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis under Background of Chinese Medicine: Challenges and Potentials Coexist.
Chuan-Hui YAO ; Chi ZHANG ; Meng-Ge SONG ; Cong-Min XIA ; Tian CHANG ; Xie-Li MA ; Wei-Xiang LIU ; Zi-Xia LIU ; Jia-Meng LIU ; Xiao-Po TANG ; Ying LIU ; Jian LIU ; Jiang-Yun PENG ; Dong-Yi HE ; Qing-Chun HUANG ; Ming-Li GAO ; Jian-Ping YU ; Wei LIU ; Jian-Yong ZHANG ; Yue-Lan ZHU ; Xiu-Juan HOU ; Hai-Dong WANG ; Yong-Fei FANG ; Yue WANG ; Yin SU ; Xin-Ping TIAN ; Ai-Ping LYU ; Xun GONG ; Quan JIANG
Chinese journal of integrative medicine 2025;31(7):581-589
OBJECTIVE:
To evaluate the dynamic changes of glucocorticoid (GC) dose and the feasibility of GC discontinuation in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients under the background of Chinese medicine (CM).
METHODS:
This multicenter retrospective cohort study included 1,196 RA patients enrolled in the China Rheumatoid Arthritis Registry of Patients with Chinese Medicine (CERTAIN) from September 1, 2019 to December 4, 2023, who initiated GC therapy. Participants were divided into the Western medicine (WM) and integrative medicine (IM, combination of CM and WM) groups based on medication regimen. Follow-up was performed at least every 3 months to assess dynamic changes in GC dose. Changes in GC dose were analyzed by generalized estimator equation, the probability of GC discontinuation was assessed using Kaplan-Meier curve, and predictors of GC discontinuation were analyzed by Cox regression. Patients with <12 months of follow-up were excluded for the sensitivity analysis.
RESULTS:
Among 1,196 patients (85.4% female; median age 56.4 years), 880 (73.6%) received IM. Over a median 12-month follow-up, 34.3% (410 cases) discontinued GC, with significantly higher rates in the IM group (40.8% vs. 16.1% in WM; P<0.05). GC dose declined progressively, with IM patients demonstrating faster reductions (median 3.75 mg vs. 5.00 mg in WM at 12 months; P<0.05). Multivariate Cox analysis identified age <60 years [P<0.001, hazard ratios (HR)=2.142, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.523-3.012], IM therapy (P=0.001, HR=2.175, 95% CI: 1.369-3.456), baseline GC dose ⩽7.5 mg (P=0.003, HR=1.637, 95% CI: 1.177-2.275), and absence of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs use (P=0.001, HR=2.546, 95% CI: 1.432-4.527) as significant predictors of GC discontinuation. Sensitivity analysis (545 cases) confirmed these findings.
CONCLUSIONS
RA patients receiving CM face difficulties in following guideline-recommended GC discontinuation protocols. IM can promote GC discontinuation and is a promising strategy to reduce GC dependency in RA management. (Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, No. NCT05219214).
Adult
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Aged
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Female
;
Humans
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Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Arthritis, Rheumatoid/drug therapy*
;
Glucocorticoids/therapeutic use*
;
Medicine, Chinese Traditional
;
Retrospective Studies
6.Clinical treatment strategy for pT3N0 laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma.
Chuan LIU ; Wei MA ; Zhihai WANG ; Yanshi LI ; Min PAN ; Quan ZENG ; Guohua HU
Journal of Clinical Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery 2025;39(1):61-65
Objective:To investigate optimal treatment strategy for pT3N0 laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma(SCC). Methods:A retrospective study of 150 patients with pT3N0 laryngeal SCC treated in the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University was performed. The efficacies of partial laryngectomy and total laryngectomy, as well as surgery alone and postoperative radiotherapy were evaluated. The overall survival(OS), disease specific survival(DSS) and disease-free survival(DFS) were analyzed with statistical package from SPSS. Results:Among the 108 patients with glottic laryngeal SCC, there were no significant differences in OS, DSS and DFS between the partial laryngectomy group and the total laryngectomy group(Log-rank=0.184, 0.010 and 0.051, P>0.05). Similarly, there were no significant differences in OS, DSS and DFS between the surgery-alone group and postoperative radiotherapy group(Log-rank=0.214, 0.251 and 0.003, P>0.05). Among the 38 patients with supraglottic laryngeal SCC, the OS in the total laryngectomy group was significantly higher than that in the partial laryngectomy group(Log-rank=7.338, P=0.007). The DSS and DFS in the total laryngectomy group were higher than in the partial laryngectomy group, but the differences were not statistically significant(Log-rank=0.895 and 1.792; P>0.05). The DFS in the postoperative radiotherapy group was significantly higher than in the surgery-alone group(Log-rank=7.172, P=0.007), but there were no significant differences in OS and DSS between these two groups(Log-rank=0.010 and 0.876, P>0.05). Conclusion:For pT3N0 glottic laryngeal cancer patients, the efficacy of partial laryngectomy is comparable to total laryngectomy, same as surgery alone and postoperative radiotherapy. For pT3N0 supraglottic laryngeal cancer patients, total laryngectomy could improve the overall survival, and postoperative radiotherapy could reduce the recurrence. Prospectively randomized study with large samples is still needed.
Humans
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Laryngeal Neoplasms/therapy*
;
Laryngectomy/methods*
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Carcinoma, Squamous Cell/surgery*
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Male
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Disease-Free Survival
;
Neoplasm Staging
;
Aged
;
Survival Rate
;
Treatment Outcome
7.Intelligent Recognition of Phlegm-Dampness Syndrome in Hypertension Based on Multimodal Feature Fusion
Yingfei LIU ; Wei SHI ; Quan LIU ; Ying YANG ; Xin GAO
World Science and Technology-Modernization of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;27(8):2183-2191
Objective To construct a diagnostic model for phlegm-dampness syndrome in hypertension based on multimodal feature fusion.Methods Clinical text information(physiological/lifestyle data,symptoms,pulse characteristics)and tongue image data were collected from 261 hypertension patients.For clinical text data,statistical analyses,including ANOVA,Mann-Whitney U test,and Chi-square test,were performed to identify significant features(P<0.05),which were incorporated into a clinical text-based diagnosis model(CTDM)using a multilayer perceptron algorithm.For tongue images,a tongue image-based diagnosis model(TIDM)was constructed based on channel attention mechanisms and residual networks.A multimodal diagnostic model(MDM)was built by fusing clinical text and tongue image features using a feature concatenation method.The diagnostic performance of each model was evaluated using five-fold cross-validation with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC),accuracy,specificity,and sensitivity.Results Seven clinical text features,including physiological/lifestyle factors(disease duration,body mass index),symptoms(chest tightness,loss of appetite,excessive phlegm),and pulse characteristics(slippery pulse,damp pulse),were identified as risk factors for phlegm-dampness syndrome in hypertension.The AUC of the CTDM was 0.831±0.021,the AUC of the TIDM was 0.878±0.035,and the MDM achieved an AUC of 0.972±0.015.Conclusion The multimodal diagnostic model that integrates clinical text and tongue image features demonstrates high diagnostic accuracy and provides valuable guidance for AI-assisted diagnosis of phlegm-dampness syndrome in hypertension.
8.Evidence-based guidelines for rehabilitation treatment after internal fixation of thoracolumbar spine fracture in adults (version 2025)
Zhengwei XU ; Liming CHENG ; Qixin CHEN ; Jian DONG ; Shunwu FAN ; Zhong FANG ; Shiqing FENG ; Haoyu FENG ; Haishan GUAN ; Weimin JIANG ; Dianming JIANG ; Yong HAI ; Lijun HE ; Yuan HE ; Bo LI ; Jianjun LI ; Feng LI ; Li LI ; Weishi LI ; Chunde LI ; Qi LIAO ; Baoge LIU ; Xiaoguang LIU ; Yong LIU ; Xuhua LU ; Shibao LU ; Bin LIN ; Wei MEI ; Chao MA ; Renfu QUAN ; Limin RONG ; Jiacan SU ; Honghui SUN ; Yuemin SONG ; Hongxun SANG ; Jun SHU ; Tiansheng SUN ; Jiwei TIAN ; Qiang WANG ; Xinwei WANG ; Zhe WANG ; Zheng WANG ; Liang YAN ; Guoyong YIN ; Jie ZHAO ; Yue ZHU ; Xiaobo ZHANG ; Xuesong ZHANG ; Zhongmin ZHANG ; Rongqiang ZHANG ; Dingjun HAO ; Yanzheng GAO ; Baorong HE
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(1):19-32
Thoracolumbar spine fracture often leads to severe pain, functional impairments, and neurological deficits, for which open reduction and internal fixation can effectively restore the spinal structural stability. Open decompression and reduction with internal fixation can help relieve spinal cord compression and improve spinal function in cases of concomitant cord injury. Although spinal stability can be restored through surgery, patients often face chronic pain and functional impairments postoperatively. A postoperative rehabilitation program is critical in optimizing therapeutic outcomes, reducing complications, and minimizing the risk of secondary injuries. However, current rehabilitation methods, such as physical therapy, functional training, and pain management, are confronted with problems in clinical practice, including significant variation in efficacy, poor patient adherence, and prolonged rehabilitation period. There is an urgent need for a unified rehabilitation strategy to address these problems. To this end, the Spinal Trauma Group of the Orthopedic Physicians Branch of the Chinese Medical Association and the Spine Health Professional Committee of the Chinese Human Health Technology Promotion Association organized experts from relevant fields to formulate Evidence-based guidelines for rehabilitation treatment after internal fixation of thoracolumbar spine fracture in adults ( version 2025) by integrating evidences from clinical researches and advanced rehabilitation concepts at home and abroad. A total number of 14 recommendations concerning the rehabilitation treatment with multimodal analgesia, psychological intervention, deep vein thrombosis prevention, core muscle and extremity exercise, appropriate use of braces, early weight-bearing, device-aided rehabilitation exercise, neuroregulatory therapy, rehabilitation team were put forward, aiming to standardize the post-operative rehabilitation process following internal fixation, promote the functional recovery, and enhance patients′ quality of life.
9.Clinical guideline for vertebral augmentation of acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fractures (version 2025)
Bolong ZHENG ; Wei MEI ; Yanzheng GAO ; Liming CHENG ; Jian CHEN ; Qixin CHEN ; Liang CHEN ; Xigao CHENG ; Jian DONG ; Jin FAN ; Shunwu FAN ; Xiangqian FANG ; Zhong FANG ; Shiqing FENG ; Haoyu FENG ; Haishan GUAN ; Yong HAI ; Baorong HE ; Lijun HE ; Yuan HE ; Hua HUI ; Weimin JIANG ; Junjie JIANG ; Dianming JIANG ; Xuewen KANG ; Hua GUO ; Jianjun LI ; Feng LI ; Li LI ; Weishi LI ; Chunde LI ; Qi LIAO ; Baoge LIU ; Xiaoguang LIU ; Xuhua LU ; Shibao LU ; Bin LIN ; Chao MA ; Xuexiao MA ; Renfu QUAN ; Limin RONG ; Honghui SUN ; Tiansheng SUN ; Yueming SONG ; Hongxun SANG ; Jun SHU ; Jiacan SU ; Jiwei TIAN ; Xinwei WANG ; Zhe WANG ; Zheng WANG ; Zhengwei XU ; Huilin YANG ; Jiancheng YANG ; Liang YAN ; Feng YAN ; Guoyong YIN ; Xuesong ZHANG ; Zhongmin ZHANG ; Jie ZHAO ; Yuhong ZENG ; Yue ZHU ; Rongqiang ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Trauma 2025;41(9):805-818
Acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fracture (ASOTLF) can lead to chronic low back pain, kyphosis deformity, pulmonary dysfunction, loss of mobility, and even life-threatening complications. Vertebral augmentation is currently the mainstream treatment method for this condition. In 2019, the Editorial Board of Chinese Journal of Trauma and the Spinal Trauma Group of Orthopedic Surgeons Branch of Chinese Medical Doctor Association collaboratively led the development of Clinical guideline for vertebral augmentation for acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fractures. Six years later, with advances in clinical diagnosis and treatment techniques as well as accumulating evidence in related fields, the 2019 guideline requires updating. To this end, the Spinal Trauma Group of Orthopedic Surgeons Branch of Chinese Medical Doctor Association, the Spinal Health Professional Committee of China Human Health Science and Technology Promotion Association, and the Minimally Invasive Orthopedics Professional Committee of Shaanxi Medical Doctor Association have organized experts in the field to develop the Clinical guideline for vertebral augmentation of acute symptomatic osteoporotic thoracolumbar compression fractures ( version 2025) , based on the latest evidence-based medical researches. This guideline incorporates 3 recommendations retained from the 2019 version with updated strength of evidence, along with 12 new recommendations. It provides recommendations from six aspects of diagnosis, pain management, treatment option selection, prevention of postoperative complications, anti-osteoporosis therapy, and postoperative rehabilitation, aiming to provide a reference for standard treatment of vertebral augmentation for ASOTLF in hospitals at all levels.
10.Construction and validation of a predictive model for antibiotic-associated diarrhea after surgery in chil-dren with congenital heart disease
Dongli LIU ; Zilin QUAN ; Lingxiu ZHONG ; Qiqi CHEN ; Wenqiao CAI ; Senpei ZHUANG ; Ying WEI ; Huiyi PAN ; Yawen LIN
The Journal of Practical Medicine 2025;41(5):683-690
Objective To investigate the influencing factors of antibiotic-associated diarrhea(AAD)following congenital heart disease(CHD)surgery in pediatric patients,develop a nomogram-based predictive model,and validate its efficacy.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of pediatric patients who underwent CHD surgery in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit(PICU)of a tertiary hospital in Guang-dong Province from July 2022 to July 2024.Patients were categorized into an AAD group and a non-AAD group.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for AAD occurrence following CHD surgery.A risk prediction model was developed,and a nomogram was constructed.The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)curve to calculate the area under the curve(AUC),the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test,calibration curves,and clinical decision curve analysis.External validation of the model was conducted using data from patients in the Surgical Intensive Care Unit(SICU).Results The incidence of AAD following CHD surgery was 48.52%(229 out of 472 cases).Risk factors for AAD included the combined use of antibiotics,mechanical ventilation,elevated C-reactive protein levels,prolonged surgical duration,and extended antibiotic usage time(all with OR>1,P<0.05).Conversely,probiotic administration was identified as a protective factor(OR<1,P<0.05).The predictive model demon-strated excellent discrimination,as evidenced by the ROC curve areas:0.922(95%CI:0.894~0.951)in the modeling group,0.886(95%CI:0.838~0.915)in the internal validation group,and 0.862(95%CI:0.784~0.941)in the external validation group.Additionally,the model exhibited satisfactory calibration,as indicated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test results:χ2=7.96,P=0.538 in the modeling group;χ2=4.24,P=0.895 in the inter-nal validation group;and χ2=9.923,P=0.270 in the external validation group.Furthermore,the model provided significant clinical utility.Conclusions Combined antibiotic use,duration of antibiotic therapy,mechanical ventilation,surgical duration,C-reactive protein(CRP)levels,and probiotic administration are key factors influ-encing the occurrence of AAD.The risk prediction model developed based on these variables demonstrates robust predictive performance and can serve as a valuable reference for the development and implementation of preventive and therapeutic strategies in clinical practice.

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