1.Cost-effectiveness of lecanemab for early Alzheimer disease
Chaogang XIONG ; Junsong WEI ; Mengna AN ; Zijie DENG ; Lei DU ; Qian LEI ; Xin ZHANG ; Shengjie ZHANG ; Wenbing MA ; Weiyi FENG
China Pharmacy 2026;37(13):1735-1739
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of lecanemab for early Alzheimer disease (AD) from a whole-society perspective. METHODS Based on data from the Clarity AD study, a global multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study of lecanemab for early AD, a Markov model was developed according to the disease progression of AD, with a monthly cycle and a time horizon extending to 99% patient mortality. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were used as outcome indicators, with a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold set at twice China’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) for 2025 (199 330.00 yuan/QALY). The model simulated the cost-effectiveness of lecanemab plus standard of care (SoC) versus placebo plus SoC for early AD. One-way sensitivity analysis, probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and scenario analysis were employed to test the robustness of the results. RESULTS Compared with placebo plus SoC, the ICER for lecanemab plus SoC was 4 364 711.54 yuan/QALY. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that the hazard ratio for disease progression, the price of lecanemab, body weight, the monthly progression probability of mild cognitive impairment, and the discount rate were key parameters affecting model robustness. Results of the probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the probability of lecanemab being cost-effective was 0 at the current WTP threshold. Scenario analysis indicated that a price reduction of at least 94.88% would be required for lecanemab to fall below the WTP threshold. CONCLUSIONS At the current WTP threshold, lecanemab plus SoC is not cost-effective compared with placebo plus SoC for early AD.
2.Cost-effectiveness of lecanemab for early Alzheimer disease
Chaogang XIONG ; Junsong WEI ; Mengna AN ; Zijie DENG ; Lei DU ; Qian LEI ; Xin ZHANG ; Shengjie ZHANG ; Wenbing MA ; Weiyi FENG
China Pharmacy 2026;37(13):1735-1739
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of lecanemab for early Alzheimer disease (AD) from a whole-society perspective. METHODS Based on data from the Clarity AD study, a global multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study of lecanemab for early AD, a Markov model was developed according to the disease progression of AD, with a monthly cycle and a time horizon extending to 99% patient mortality. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were used as outcome indicators, with a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold set at twice China’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) for 2025 (199 330.00 yuan/QALY). The model simulated the cost-effectiveness of lecanemab plus standard of care (SoC) versus placebo plus SoC for early AD. One-way sensitivity analysis, probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and scenario analysis were employed to test the robustness of the results. RESULTS Compared with placebo plus SoC, the ICER for lecanemab plus SoC was 4 364 711.54 yuan/QALY. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that the hazard ratio for disease progression, the price of lecanemab, body weight, the monthly progression probability of mild cognitive impairment, and the discount rate were key parameters affecting model robustness. Results of the probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the probability of lecanemab being cost-effective was 0 at the current WTP threshold. Scenario analysis indicated that a price reduction of at least 94.88% would be required for lecanemab to fall below the WTP threshold. CONCLUSIONS At the current WTP threshold, lecanemab plus SoC is not cost-effective compared with placebo plus SoC for early AD.
3.Mechanisms of Diabetic Tendinopathy and Exercise Intervention
Ya-Ke WU ; Rui DENG ; Yu-Miao XIE ; Fang ZOU ; Shuai-Wei QIAN
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(8):2041-2052
Diabetic tendinopathy is a common and disabling musculoskeletal complication of diabetes, clinically characterized by tendon thickening, pain, impaired healing capacity and compromised biomechanical performance, collectively undermining joint function and quality of life. Its pathogenesis is multifactorial. On the one hand, chronic hyperglycaemia promotes the abnormal accumulation of advanced glycation end products (AGEs) within tendon collagen, leading to non-enzymatic crosslinking and engagement of the receptor for AGEs (RAGE), which in turn triggers inflammasome activation and sustains inflammatory responses. On the other hand, the diabetic milieu disrupts collagen metabolic homeostasis, impairs microvascular function and induces peripheral neuropathy; together, these alterations drive extracellular matrix degeneration and weaken the mechanical properties of tendon. Exercise, as a non-pharmacological intervention, can ameliorate these pathological changes through multiple integrated mechanisms. First, exercise attenuates tendon inflammation and restores microenvironmental homeostasis. Regular physical activity reduces AGE-RAGE signalling, thereby suppressing downstream expression of tumour necrosis factor (TNF) and interleukin-1β (IL-1β), while upregulating the anti-inflammatory cytokine interleukin-10 (IL-10). This shift from a pro-inflammatory to a pro-resolving milieu not only restrains chronic inflammation but may also limit excessive inflammasome activation in tenocytes and tissue-resident immune cells. Second, exercise enhances local expression of insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), thereby activating the phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K)-protein kinase B (Akt) signalling pathway. This axis stimulates tenocyte proliferation, augments synthesis of type I collagen —— the principal load-bearing component of tendon —— and thereby promotes tissue repair, preserves tensile strength and supports matrix synthesis and structural integrity. In addition, exercise improves blood supply and nutrient delivery to tendon by increasing the expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), connective tissue growth factor (CTGF) and the small leucine-rich proteoglycan decorin (DCN), thereby enhancing capillary growth, coordinating collagen fibrillogenesis and actively suppressing pathological vascular calcification. Exercise also increases the expression of angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4), fibroblast growth factor 2 (FGF-2) and CD34. Through the concerted actions of these factors, exercise promotes angiogenesis, restores the microvascular network and ensures adequate oxygen and nutrient supply to relatively ischaemic tendon tissue. Finally, exercise elevates levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and nerve growth factor (NGF), supporting neuronal survival, axonal growth and the function of sensory and sympathetic nerve endings within tendon, thereby exerting neurotrophic and neuromodulatory effects and improving tendon innervation and neuromuscular control. Moreover, exercise upregulates collapsin response mediator protein 2 (CRMP-2), a molecule involved in axonal guidance and regeneration, and moderately increases the activity of substance P (SP), thereby helping to regulate neurogenic inflammation, pain perception and trophic support for tenocytes. Drawing together current evidence, this review systematically summarizes the mechanisms underlying diabetic tendinopathy and examines the mechanistic basis of exercise intervention, with the aim of providing a theoretical framework for the development of precise exercise strategies for affected individuals. However, several key issues remain unresolved: the therapeutic efficacy and mechanistic specificity of different exercise modalities in diabetic tendinopathy have yet to be defined, and early diagnostic biomarkers remain insufficiently characterized. Future studies should apply multi-omics approaches to profile AGE subtypes, miRNA signatures and collagen metabolic products, and should also clarify the adverse effects and underlying mechanisms of excessive exercise or mechanical overloading in diabetic tendinopathy. Such efforts will further elucidate the therapeutic effects and mechanisms of exercise in diabetic tendinopathy and provide a stronger basis for precision exercise prescription and fitness guidance in patients with diabetes.
4.CRTC2 attenuates cardiomyocyte hypertrophy by inhibiting cardiomyocyte ferroptosis
Zhaoyue WANG ; Hongyu ZHENG ; Yanxia WANG ; Yuanqin ZHAO ; Wei DENG ; Kun ZHOU ; Qian XU ; Huiting LIU ; Shao OUYANG ; Miao JIANG ; Zhongzhou YANG ; Zhisheng JIANG
Chinese Journal of Arteriosclerosis 2025;33(10):849-858
Aim To investigate the role and regulatory mechanism of CREB regulated transcription coactivator 2(CRTC2)in cardiomyocyte hypertrophy.Methods A pathological cardiomyocyte hypertrophy model was established in C57BL/6 mice by intraperitoneal injection of isoproterenol(ISO),the expression of CRTC2 in cardiac tissue was detec-ted by Western blot.The CRTC2 knockout mice model was constructed,the cardiac function of mice was detected by small animal echocardiography,the collagen fiber content in mice cardiac tissue was detected by Masson staining,the car-diomyocyte hypertrophy related proteins:skeletal muscle α1-actin(ACTA1)and brain natriuretic peptide(BNP),as well as ferroptosis related proteins:acyl-CoA synthetase long chain family member 4(ACSL4),solute carrier family 7 member 11(SLC7A11)and glutathione peroxidase 4(GPX4)in mice cardiac tissue were detected by Western blot,the iron ion content in mice cardiac tissue was detected by iron ion kit,to evaluate the correlation between CRTC2 and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and ferroptosis.H9c2 cells were induced by ISO to construct an in vitro model of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy,the protein expressions of CRTC2,ACTA1,BNP,ACSL4,SLC7A11 and GPX4 were detected after intervention with fer-roptosis inhibitor ferrostatin-1(Fer-1).H9c2 cells with CRTC2 overexpression induced by ISO were used to construct an in vitro model of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy,the related indicators of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and ferroptosis were detec-ted to explore the mechanism of CRTC2 in cardiomyocyte hypertrophy.Results Compared with the control group,the expression of CRTC2 protein in the cardiac tissue of ISO induced cardiomyocyte hypertrophy mice was increased(P<0.05).Compared with wild-type mice,CRTC2-/-mice showed worsened cardiac function,manifested as increased left ventricular end-diastolic diameter(LVEDD),left ventricular end-systolic diameter(LVESD),left ventricular posterior wall thickness(LVPWT),heart weight/tibia length(HW/TL)and heart weight/body weight(HW/BW),decreased short axis shortening(FS)and ejection fraction(EF),increased collagen fiber content in cardiac tissue,upregulated ex-pression of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy-related proteins ACTA1 and BNP,increased mRNA and protein expression of ferrop-tosis-related protein ACSL4,decreased mRNA and protein expression of SLC7A11 and GPX4,and elevated iron ion content in cardiac tissue(P<0.05 or P<0.01).In vitro experiments showed that compared with ISO group,the ISO+Fer-1 group had no significant change in CRTC2 protein expression(P>0.05),the expression of ACTA1 and BNP protein decreased,the surface area of cardiomyocyte reduced,the expression of ACSL4 protein decreased,and the expression of SLC7A11 and GPX4 proteins increased(P<0.05 or P<0.01).Compared with the ISO group,the LV-CRTC2+ISO group showed a decrease in surface area of cardiomyocytes(P<0.01),a decrease in ACTA1,BNP and ACSL4 protein ex-pression,an increase in SLC7A11 and GPX4 protein expression,and a decrease in ROS and iron ion content(P<0.05 or P<0.01).Conclusion CRTC2 alleviates cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and protect cardiac function by suppressing fer-roptosis in cardiomyocytes.
5.Diagnosis of coronary artery lesions in children based on Z-score regression model.
Yong WANG ; Jia-Ying JIANG ; Yan DENG ; Bo LI ; Ping SHUAI ; Xiao-Ping HU ; Yin-Yan ZHANG ; Han WU ; Lu-Wei YE ; Qian PENG
Chinese Journal of Contemporary Pediatrics 2025;27(2):176-183
OBJECTIVES:
To construct a Z-score regression model for coronary artery diameter based on echocardiographic data from children in Sichuan Province and to establish a Z-score calculation formula.
METHODS:
A total of 744 healthy children who underwent physical examinations at Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital from January 2020 to December 2022 were selected as the modeling group, while 251 children diagnosed with Kawasaki disease at the same hospital from January 2018 to December 2022 were selected as the validation group. Pearson correlation analysis was conducted to analyze the relationships between coronary artery diameter values and age, height, weight, and body surface area. A regression model was constructed using function transformation to identify the optimal regression model and establish the Z-score calculation formula, which was then validated.
RESULTS:
The Pearson correlation analysis showed that the correlation coefficients for the diameters of the left main coronary artery, left anterior descending artery, left circumflex artery, and right coronary artery with body surface area were 0.815, 0.793, 0.704, and 0.802, respectively (P<0.05). Among the constructed regression models, the power function regression model demonstrated the best performance and was therefore chosen as the optimal model for establishing the Z-score calculation formula. Based on this Z-score calculation formula, the detection rate of coronary artery lesions was found to be 21.5% (54/251), which was higher than the detection rate based on absolute values of coronary artery diameter. Notably, in the left anterior descending and left circumflex arteries, the detection rate of coronary artery lesions using this Z-score calculation formula was higher than that of previous classic Z-score calculation formulas.
CONCLUSIONS
The Z-score calculation formula established based on the power function regression model has a higher detection rate for coronary artery lesions, providing a strong reference for clinicians, particularly in assessing coronary artery lesions in children with Kawasaki disease.
Humans
;
Male
;
Female
;
Child, Preschool
;
Child
;
Coronary Artery Disease/diagnostic imaging*
;
Infant
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Mucocutaneous Lymph Node Syndrome
;
Regression Analysis
;
Coronary Vessels/diagnostic imaging*
;
Echocardiography
;
Adolescent
6.Concordance and pathogenicity of copy number variants detected by non-invasive prenatal screening in 38,611 pregnant women without fetal structural abnormalities.
Yunyun LIU ; Jing WANG ; Ling WANG ; Lin CHEN ; Dan XIE ; Li WANG ; Sha LIU ; Jianlong LIU ; Ting BAI ; Xiaosha JING ; Cechuan DENG ; Tianyu XIA ; Jing CHENG ; Lingling XING ; Xiang WEI ; Yuan LUO ; Quanfang ZHOU ; Ling LIU ; Qian ZHU ; Hongqian LIU
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(4):499-501
7.Angiotensin Ⅱ activates p53/SAT1 signaling pathway to induce ferroptosis in white adipocytes
Wei DENG ; Xiyan LIU ; Liyuan GUO ; Qian XU ; Kun ZHOU ; Yuanqin ZHAO ; Zhaoyue WANG ; Xiang LI ; Xin-mei DENG ; Xinyi QIN ; Zhong REN ; Zhisheng JIANG
Chinese Journal of Arteriosclerosis 2025;33(5):385-394
Aim To investigate the effect and mechanism of angiotensin Ⅱ(Ang Ⅱ)on ferroptosis in white adi-pocytes.Methods The 3T3-L1 preadipocytes were differentiated into white adipocytes by inducer stimulation.The experiment was divided into control group,Ang Ⅱ group,Ang Ⅱ+Fer-1(ferroptosis inhibitor)group and Ang Ⅱ+PFT-α(p53 inhibitor)group.Ang Ⅱ was used to treat cells.RT-qPCR and Western blot were used to detect the expression levels of ferroptosis factors and adipokines.JC-1 kit was used to detect mitochondrial membrane potential(MMP)level.Iron ion kit was used to detect intracellular iron content.Glutathione(GSH)kit was used to detect GSH content.Fer-1 and Ang Ⅱ were added to treat cells to detect the the changes of ferroptosis level.The expression of p53 and spermidine/spermine N1-acetyltransferase 1(SAT1)protein was detected.Subsequently,PFT-α and Ang Ⅱ were added to co-treat cells to detect the changes of p53 and SAT1 protein expression,and to observe the effect of inhibiting p53 expression on the expression levels of ferroptosis factors and adipokines.Results 3T3-L1 cells were successfully differentiated into white adipocytes by stimulator-induced differentiation.Ang Ⅱ induced ferroptosis in white adipocytes.RT-qPCR results showed that compared with control group,the mRNA expression of anti-ferroptosis factor glutathione peroxidase 4(GPX4),solute carrier family 7 member 11(SLC7A11)and iron regulatory protein 1(IRP-1)was down-regulated in Ang Ⅱ group,and the mRNA expression of pro-ferroptosis factor acyl-CoA synthetase of long-chain family member 4(ACSL4)was up-regulated.Western blot results showed that compared with control group,the protein expression of SLC7A11 and GPX4 was down-regulated in Ang Ⅱ group,and the protein expression of ACSL4 was up-regulated.Ang Ⅱ treatment increased the content of intracellular iron ions and decreased the levels of GSH and MMP.Compared with Ang Ⅱ group,the mRNA expression of IRP-1 and SLC7A11 was up-regulated in Ang Ⅱ+Fer-1 group.Ang Ⅱ induced changes in the expression profile of adipokines in white adipocytes.Western blot results showed that compared with control group,the protein ex-pression of pro-inflammatory adipokine leptin(LEP),resistin(RETN),interleukin-6(IL-6)and tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α)was up-regulated in Ang Ⅱ group,and the protein expression of anti-inflammatory adipokine adiponectin(AD-PN)and omentin 1(ITLN1)was down-regulated.In addition,Ang Ⅱ increased the protein expression of p53 and SAT1.Inhibition of p53 expression can improve the level of ferroptosis and adipokine expression in white adipocytes trea-ted with Ang Ⅱ.Western blot results showed that compared with Ang Ⅱ group,the protein expression of p53 and SAT1 was down-regulated in Ang Ⅱ+PFT-α group,the protein expression of SLC7A11 and GPX4 was up-regulated,and the protein expression of ACSL4 was down-regulated.The protein expression of ADPN was up-regulated in Ang Ⅱ+PFT-αgroup,and the protein expression of TNF-α,LEP and RETN was down-regulated.Conclusion Ang Ⅱ induces fer-roptosis in white adipocytes through activating the p53/SAT1 signaling pathway.
8.Phase Ⅰ clinical study of bilateral catheter-based ultrasound renal denervation in patients with uncontrolled hypertension
Jun QIAN ; Yun DU ; Wei SHA ; Shunkang RONG ; Yuanqing YAO ; Rong HU ; Changming DENG ; Dichuan LIU ; Jianlin DU ; Qiang SHE ; Bo YU ; Xiaoping CHEN ; Jing HUANG
Chinese Journal of Cardiology 2025;53(11):1225-1230
Objective:To preliminarily evaluate the efficacy and safety of a domestically developed bilateral interventional ultrasound renal denervation (RDN) system in patients with uncontrolled hypertension despite antihypertensive medication.Methods:A multicenter, single-arm trial was conducted. Patients with uncontrolled hypertension (≥2 antihypertensive drugs) were enrolled from April 2023 to April 2024 at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, and the Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University. RDN was performed using the UltraCure? bilateral interventional ultrasound system via femoral or brachial artery access. Multi-segmental "quadrant-based" ablation was performed in bilateral main renal arteries and branches/accessory arteries (diameter≥4 mm). Primary endpoints were changes in office systolic blood pressure (SBP) and 24-hour daytime SBP at 2-and 6-months post-procedure. The primary safety endpoints included the incidence of major adverse events, device-related adverse events, and puncture site complications.Results:Ten patients, mean aged 47.1 years, including 9 male, successfully completed RDN. At 2 and 6 months post-procedure, office SBP decreased by (19.7±15.2) mmHg ( P=0.002, 1 mmHg=0.133 kPa) and (13.8±13.9) mmHg ( P=0.013) from baseline, while the 24-hour daytime SBP decreased by (13.4±10.6) mmHg ( P=0.004) and (11.2±9.2) mmHg ( P=0.004). Apart from one case of a limited distal renal artery dissection, no other serious device/procedure-related adverse events were observed. At 6-month follow-up, the estimated glomerular filtration rate remained stable ((85.3±18.3) ml·min -1·1.73 m -2 vs. (82.3±19.2) ml·min -1·1.73 m -2, P=0.41). No renal artery stenosis was detected. Conclusions:The domestic interventional ultrasound RDN system could effectively reduce office and ambulatory blood pressure in patients with uncontrolled hypertension, demonstrating a favorable safety profile. Long-term efficacy requires confirmation through large-scale randomized controlled trials.
9.Angiotensin Ⅱ activates p53/SAT1 signaling pathway to induce ferroptosis in white adipocytes
Wei DENG ; Xiyan LIU ; Liyuan GUO ; Qian XU ; Kun ZHOU ; Yuanqin ZHAO ; Zhaoyue WANG ; Xiang LI ; Xin-mei DENG ; Xinyi QIN ; Zhong REN ; Zhisheng JIANG
Chinese Journal of Arteriosclerosis 2025;33(5):385-394
Aim To investigate the effect and mechanism of angiotensin Ⅱ(Ang Ⅱ)on ferroptosis in white adi-pocytes.Methods The 3T3-L1 preadipocytes were differentiated into white adipocytes by inducer stimulation.The experiment was divided into control group,Ang Ⅱ group,Ang Ⅱ+Fer-1(ferroptosis inhibitor)group and Ang Ⅱ+PFT-α(p53 inhibitor)group.Ang Ⅱ was used to treat cells.RT-qPCR and Western blot were used to detect the expression levels of ferroptosis factors and adipokines.JC-1 kit was used to detect mitochondrial membrane potential(MMP)level.Iron ion kit was used to detect intracellular iron content.Glutathione(GSH)kit was used to detect GSH content.Fer-1 and Ang Ⅱ were added to treat cells to detect the the changes of ferroptosis level.The expression of p53 and spermidine/spermine N1-acetyltransferase 1(SAT1)protein was detected.Subsequently,PFT-α and Ang Ⅱ were added to co-treat cells to detect the changes of p53 and SAT1 protein expression,and to observe the effect of inhibiting p53 expression on the expression levels of ferroptosis factors and adipokines.Results 3T3-L1 cells were successfully differentiated into white adipocytes by stimulator-induced differentiation.Ang Ⅱ induced ferroptosis in white adipocytes.RT-qPCR results showed that compared with control group,the mRNA expression of anti-ferroptosis factor glutathione peroxidase 4(GPX4),solute carrier family 7 member 11(SLC7A11)and iron regulatory protein 1(IRP-1)was down-regulated in Ang Ⅱ group,and the mRNA expression of pro-ferroptosis factor acyl-CoA synthetase of long-chain family member 4(ACSL4)was up-regulated.Western blot results showed that compared with control group,the protein expression of SLC7A11 and GPX4 was down-regulated in Ang Ⅱ group,and the protein expression of ACSL4 was up-regulated.Ang Ⅱ treatment increased the content of intracellular iron ions and decreased the levels of GSH and MMP.Compared with Ang Ⅱ group,the mRNA expression of IRP-1 and SLC7A11 was up-regulated in Ang Ⅱ+Fer-1 group.Ang Ⅱ induced changes in the expression profile of adipokines in white adipocytes.Western blot results showed that compared with control group,the protein ex-pression of pro-inflammatory adipokine leptin(LEP),resistin(RETN),interleukin-6(IL-6)and tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α)was up-regulated in Ang Ⅱ group,and the protein expression of anti-inflammatory adipokine adiponectin(AD-PN)and omentin 1(ITLN1)was down-regulated.In addition,Ang Ⅱ increased the protein expression of p53 and SAT1.Inhibition of p53 expression can improve the level of ferroptosis and adipokine expression in white adipocytes trea-ted with Ang Ⅱ.Western blot results showed that compared with Ang Ⅱ group,the protein expression of p53 and SAT1 was down-regulated in Ang Ⅱ+PFT-α group,the protein expression of SLC7A11 and GPX4 was up-regulated,and the protein expression of ACSL4 was down-regulated.The protein expression of ADPN was up-regulated in Ang Ⅱ+PFT-αgroup,and the protein expression of TNF-α,LEP and RETN was down-regulated.Conclusion Ang Ⅱ induces fer-roptosis in white adipocytes through activating the p53/SAT1 signaling pathway.
10.Construction and application of nomogram prediction model for trial of labor after cesarean
Yunfeng QIAN ; Guoqing CHENG ; Xuemei DENG ; Dandan WEI
Journal of Navy Medicine 2025;46(1):63-67
Objective To explore the influencing factors of the failure in trial of labor after cesarean(TOLAC),construct and verify a prediction model for the risk of TOLAC.Methods The clinical data of 273 pregnant women who underwent TOLAC in The First Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University from 2019 to 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.Logistic regression was used to analyze influencing factors of the failure in TOLAC,and a nomogram model was established for individualized risk assessment.The best threshold of failure risk of TOLAC was evaluated by the decision-making curve and clinical influence curve.Results There were statistically significant differences in the age,gestational week,body mass index(BMI)before delivery,time to the last cesarean,cervical Bishop score and delivery times between the successful trial delivery group and the failed trial delivery group.The best intervention threshold was 0.72,that is,vaginal trial delivery should to be stopped when the risk of TOLAC failure was more than 72%as evaluated by the prediction model.Conclusion Age,gestational week,BMI before delivery,time to the last cesarean,Bishop score of cervix and delivery times are influencing factors for TOLAC failure.The prediction model based on these factors can provide a quantifiable TOLAC risk for pregnant women.

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