1.Guideline for Adult Weight Management in China
Weiqing WANG ; Qin WAN ; Jianhua MA ; Guang WANG ; Yufan WANG ; Guixia WANG ; Yongquan SHI ; Tingjun YE ; Xiaoguang SHI ; Jian KUANG ; Bo FENG ; Xiuyan FENG ; Guang NING ; Yiming MU ; Hongyu KUANG ; Xiaoping XING ; Chunli PIAO ; Xingbo CHENG ; Zhifeng CHENG ; Yufang BI ; Yan BI ; Wenshan LYU ; Dalong ZHU ; Cuiyan ZHU ; Wei ZHU ; Fei HUA ; Fei XIANG ; Shuang YAN ; Zilin SUN ; Yadong SUN ; Liqin SUN ; Luying SUN ; Li YAN ; Yanbing LI ; Hong LI ; Shu LI ; Ling LI ; Yiming LI ; Chenzhong LI ; Hua YANG ; Jinkui YANG ; Ling YANG ; Ying YANG ; Tao YANG ; Xiao YANG ; Xinhua XIAO ; Dan WU ; Jinsong KUANG ; Lanjie HE ; Wei GU ; Jie SHEN ; Yongfeng SONG ; Qiao ZHANG ; Hong ZHANG ; Yuwei ZHANG ; Junqing ZHANG ; Xianfeng ZHANG ; Miao ZHANG ; Yifei ZHANG ; Yingli LU ; Hong CHEN ; Li CHEN ; Bing CHEN ; Shihong CHEN ; Guiyan CHEN ; Haibing CHEN ; Lei CHEN ; Yanyan CHEN ; Genben CHEN ; Yikun ZHOU ; Xianghai ZHOU ; Qiang ZHOU ; Jiaqiang ZHOU ; Hongting ZHENG ; Zhongyan SHAN ; Jiajun ZHAO ; Dong ZHAO ; Ji HU ; Jiang HU ; Xinguo HOU ; Bimin SHI ; Tianpei HONG ; Mingxia YUAN ; Weibo XIA ; Xuejiang GU ; Yong XU ; Shuguang PANG ; Tianshu GAO ; Zuhua GAO ; Xiaohui GUO ; Hongyi CAO ; Mingfeng CAO ; Xiaopei CAO ; Jing MA ; Bin LU ; Zhen LIANG ; Jun LIANG ; Min LONG ; Yongde PENG ; Jin LU ; Hongyun LU ; Yan LU ; Chunping ZENG ; Binhong WEN ; Xueyong LOU ; Qingbo GUAN ; Lin LIAO ; Xin LIAO ; Ping XIONG ; Yaoming XUE
Chinese Journal of Endocrinology and Metabolism 2025;41(11):891-907
Body weight abnormalities, including overweight, obesity, and underweight, have become a dual public health challenge in Chinese adults: overweight and obesity lead to a variety of chronic complications, while underweight increases the risks of malnutrition, sarcopenia, and organ dysfunction. To systematically address these issues, multidisciplinary experts in endocrinology, sports science, nutrition, and psychiatry from various regions have held multiple weight management seminars. Based on the latest epidemiological data and clinical evidence, they expanded the guideline to include assessment and intervention strategies for underweight, in addition to the core content of obesity management. This guideline outlines the etiological mechanisms, evaluation methods, and multidimensional management strategies for overweight and obesity, covering key areas such as diagnosis and assessment, medical nutrition therapy, exercise prescription, pharmacological intervention, and psychological support. It is intended to provide a scientific and standardized approach to weight management across the adult population, aiming to curb the rising prevalence of obesity, mitigate complications associated with abnormal body weight, and improve nutritional status and overall quality of life.
2.Research on the Extraction of Elements of Complex Scenarios of Medical Surge and the Logical Deduction of Evolution
Tian YU ; Nan MENG ; Yiran GAO ; Min WEI ; Yanping WANG ; Lili JIANG ; Xin ZHANG ; Ning NING ; Zheng KANG ; Avdeev SERGEY ; Qunhong WU
Chinese Hospital Management 2025;45(11):11-16,21
Objective Exploring the components of complex scenarios of healthcare surges triggered by major epidemics to provide a theorical basis for building resilience in healthcare organizations.Methods A hybrid analysis method is used to summarize macro-meso-micro multi-level and multi-source heterogeneous information,extract the elements of complex scenarios of medical surge and evaluate the rationality.Fault Tree Analysis method is used to clarify the logical relationship between various scenario elements and construct scenario reasoning paths.Results 10 scenario states,11 disaster-bearing,24 emergency management and 23 scenario results are summarized and extracted to form the key elements of complex surge scenarios.Among them,M4 expansion and coordinated scheduling of key positions,B2 conventional drug inventory emergency/insufficient core treatment drugs,B emergency medical material transportation breakage,S3 disease symptom spectrum shift to severe disease,R13 prevention and control awareness laxity,and M5 media information dissemination management are the key driving factors that promote a major turning point in the scenario.The most positive scenario result is the orderly operation of the medical service system,and the most negative scenario result is the paralysis of the medical service system.Conclusion Medical institutions need to improve emergency plans based on the complex evolution scenarios of medical surges and agile governance capabilities targeting key turning points,focus on dynamically expanding and scheduling personnel in key positions,strengthen material rotation and reserve mechanisms,maintain smooth emergency logistics channels,and improve efficient management of media and public opinion,so as to comprehensively improve overall resilience.
3.A Dual-Layer Network Dynamics Modeling and Simulation of Medical Surge Risk Diffusion Based on MATLAB and REPAST
Nan MENG ; Yanping WANG ; Yiran GAO ; Tian YU ; Min WEI ; Wanmeng TENG ; Peng WANG ; Fengqian ZHONG ; Lili JIANG ; Jialin LU ; Ning NING ; Avdeev SERGEY ; Qunhong WU
Chinese Hospital Management 2025;45(11):22-27
Objective To explore the coupling mechanism between medical surge response resources and the spread of secondary risks during public health emergencies,as well as the effectiveness of relevant interventions.Methods Based on complex network theory,a dual-layer network model of medical resources and secondary events was constructed.The interactive feedback between medical resource status and secondary event risk,as well as the effects of network structure,were analyzed through MATLAB simulations,REPAST agent-based modeling,and mean-field analysis.Results Simulation and prediction results show that an increase in first-layer resource-deficient nodes significantly raises the activation rate and transmission speed of secondary events,while the clustering and spread of secondary events in the second layer,in turn,intensify resource depletion,creating a negative feedback loop.Mean-field analysis indicates a nonlinear positive correlation between the adequacy of medical resources and the likelihood of secondary events.Network structure analysis reveals that when the average node degree exceeds 8,resource allocation efficiency improves markedly.Conclusion There exists a dynamic coupling and bidirectional feedback relationship between medical resource status and secondary event risks.Enhancing the flexible allocation and responsiveness of medical resources,improving multi-sectoral collaborative monitoring and coordinated regulation,optimizing network connectivity and coordination mechanisms for resource distribution,and establishing dynamic monitoring and tiered early warning systems are key strategies for strengthening the resilience of healthcare systems and effectively containing the spread of secondary events.
4.Clinical effect of dual mobility total hip arthroplasty for the treatment of femoral neck fracture of the hemiplegic side
Wei YIN ; Ning MA ; Long JIANG ; Si-wen WU ; Li-li ZHAO
Journal of Regional Anatomy and Operative Surgery 2025;34(4):320-324
Objective To investigate the clinical effects and safety of dual mobility total hip arthroplasty for the treatment of femoral neck fracture of the hemiplegic side.Methods Patients with hemiplegia and femoral neck fracture who underwent hip arthroplasty in our hospital from March 2021 to March 2023 were selected as the research objects,and they were randomly divided into the dual mobility group(dual mobility total hip arthroplasty was performed)and the hemiarthroplasty group(hemiarthroplasty was performed),with 31 cases in each group.The perioperative status,postoperative hip function and postoperative complications of patients in the two groups were analyzed and compared.Results The operative time of patients in the dual mobility group was longer than that in the hemiarthroplasty group,the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05),but there was no statistically significant difference in intraoperative blood loss,total drainage volume 3 days after operation or hospital stay between the two groups(P>0.05).One month after surgery,there was no significant difference in hip Harris score between the two groups(P>0.05).At 6 months and 12 months after surgery,the hip Harris scores of patients in the dual mobility group were better than those in the hemiarthroplasty group,and the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).In the case of different preoperative muscle strength of the hemiplegic side,the hip Harris scores of patients in the dual mobility group at 6 months and 12 months after surgery were better than those in the hemiarthroplasty group,and the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).The incidence of postoperative complications was 12.9%(4/31)in the dual mobility group,and it was 22.6%(7/31)in the hemiarthroplasty group,without significant difference between the two groups(P>0.05).Conclusion For patients with femoral neck fracture and decreased muscle strength of affected limb due to hemiplegia,the use of dual mobility total hip arthroplasty can achieve good postoperative function and anti-dislocation effect.
5.Symptoms and treatment of benign prostatic hyperplasia patients with upper urinary tract calculi after ureteral stent implantation
Wei LIU ; Hui ZHANG ; Shuang-ning LIU ; Shao-hua BIAN ; Qi-yuan KANG ; Ying-yi LI ; Qiao DU ; Wen-bing YUAN ; Jiang ZHU
National Journal of Andrology 2025;31(7):608-611
Objective:To analyze the symptoms,diagnosis and treatment of upper urinary tract calculi patients combined with mild and moderate benign prostatic hyperplasia(BPH)after ureteral stent implantation.Methods:One hundred and six BPH pa-tients who were hospitalized for upper urinary tract calculi and had ureteral stents retained from January 2019 to December 2022 were selected and divided into 2 weeks group and 4 weeks group according to the time of removal of ureteral stents after surgery.Their gener-al clinical data were analyzed and compared.International Prostatic Symptom Scale(IPSS),postoperative ureteral Stent Symptom Questionnaire(USSQ),and incidence of adverse events after ureteral stent removal were recorded before and after removal.Results:The scores of IPSS were significantly increased in all patients,and symptoms in urinary tract had improved significantly after discharge(P<0.05).Compared with the 2 weeks group,the USSQ score of the 4 weeks group was significantly increased(P<0.05).And no significant adverse event was observed in the 2 weeks group after the removal of ureteral sten.Conclusion:IPSS score and USSQ score increased significantly during stent implantation in BPH patients with lithiasis.And complications increased sig-nificantly over time.Following thorough clinical assessment,early ureteral stent removal demonstrates both safety and efficacy,repre-senting an optimal therapeutic approach in selected cases.
6.Clinical effect of dual mobility total hip arthroplasty for the treatment of femoral neck fracture of the hemiplegic side
Wei YIN ; Ning MA ; Long JIANG ; Si-wen WU ; Li-li ZHAO
Journal of Regional Anatomy and Operative Surgery 2025;34(4):320-324
Objective To investigate the clinical effects and safety of dual mobility total hip arthroplasty for the treatment of femoral neck fracture of the hemiplegic side.Methods Patients with hemiplegia and femoral neck fracture who underwent hip arthroplasty in our hospital from March 2021 to March 2023 were selected as the research objects,and they were randomly divided into the dual mobility group(dual mobility total hip arthroplasty was performed)and the hemiarthroplasty group(hemiarthroplasty was performed),with 31 cases in each group.The perioperative status,postoperative hip function and postoperative complications of patients in the two groups were analyzed and compared.Results The operative time of patients in the dual mobility group was longer than that in the hemiarthroplasty group,the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05),but there was no statistically significant difference in intraoperative blood loss,total drainage volume 3 days after operation or hospital stay between the two groups(P>0.05).One month after surgery,there was no significant difference in hip Harris score between the two groups(P>0.05).At 6 months and 12 months after surgery,the hip Harris scores of patients in the dual mobility group were better than those in the hemiarthroplasty group,and the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).In the case of different preoperative muscle strength of the hemiplegic side,the hip Harris scores of patients in the dual mobility group at 6 months and 12 months after surgery were better than those in the hemiarthroplasty group,and the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).The incidence of postoperative complications was 12.9%(4/31)in the dual mobility group,and it was 22.6%(7/31)in the hemiarthroplasty group,without significant difference between the two groups(P>0.05).Conclusion For patients with femoral neck fracture and decreased muscle strength of affected limb due to hemiplegia,the use of dual mobility total hip arthroplasty can achieve good postoperative function and anti-dislocation effect.
7.Preoperative short-course radiotherapy followed by chemotherapy and PD-1 inhibitor administration for locally advanced rectal cancer: the initial results of a randomized controlled clinical trial (STELLAR II)
Haoyue LI ; Haitao ZHOU ; Lichun WEI ; Yinggang CHEN ; Wenjue ZHANG ; Feiyan DENG ; Ning LI ; Zheng JIANG ; Zheng LIU ; Jianwei LIANG ; Zhaoxu ZHENG ; Xianyu MENG ; Yufei LU ; Zifa LEI ; Xiaoge SUN ; Gong LI ; Yingjie WANG ; Yongwen SONG ; Shunan QI ; Hao JING ; Yirui ZHAI ; Shulian WANG ; Yexiong LI ; Yuan TANG ; Jing JIN
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2025;47(9):913-921
Objectives:To explore whether short-course radiotherapy (SCRT)-based total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) combined with PD-1 inhibitors could further promote tumor regression and improve the prognosis.Methods:This is a prospective, multicenter, two-arm randomized controlled, seamless phase Ⅱ/Ⅲ trial for proficient mismatch repair or microsatellite stable (pMMR/MSS) locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Eligible patients were randomly assigned to the iTNT (TNT+PD-1) group or the TNT group. Patients in the TNT group received SCRT (5 Gy×5) followed by 4 cycles of CAPOX or 6 cycles of mFOLFOX chemotherapy, with the iTNT group receiving SCRT followed by the same regime in combination with 4 cycles of Sintilimab. Total mesorectal excision (TME) surgery or watch and wait (W&W) was performed after neoadjuvant therapy and then 2 cycles of same regimen as before were recommended. The primary endpoints are the complete response (CR) rate for phase Ⅱ trial and 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) for phase Ⅲ trial. A total of 588 patients will be enrolled for the phase Ⅱ/Ⅲ trial. Short-term efficacy and safety data from the initial 100 treated patients were analyzed as planned.Results:From 2022-8-31 to 2023-5-24 the initial 100 patients were enrolled from 10 hospitals in China, 76.0%(76/100) patients were male, and the median age was 61 years (21-74 years). More patients had tumors located in the lower rectum (78.0%, 78/100), staged T3-4 (97.0%, 97/100) and N1-2 (93.0%, 93/100), and about half of the tumors invaded the mesorectal fascia (52.0%, 52/100) and with extramural vascular invasion (51.0%, 51/100). Analyses were performed according to the per-protocal (PP) set. All patients in the iTNT group ( n=52) and the TNT group ( n=48) completed SCRT; The 4-cycle chemotherapy±Sintilimab completion rates were 86.5% and 100.0% in the iTNT and TNT groups, respectively. In the iTNT group, 82.7% (43/52), 11.5% (6/52), and 5.8% (3/52) of the patients received 4, 3, and 2 cycles of PD-1 inhibitor. After TNT, 68 patients underwent radical surgery and 15 patients achieved cCR and adopted W&W. The pathological complete response (pCR) rates were 48.5% (16/33) and 17.1% (6/35) in the iTNT and TNT groups, with CR rates of 50.0% (25/50) and 26.1% (12/46), respectively. The incidence of treatment-related grade 3-4 adverse events was 26.9% (14/52, iTNT group) and 18.8% (9/48, TNT group), with thrombocytopenia and leukopenia being the most common. Among patients receiving immunotherapy, grade 3 immunotherapy-related adverse events occurred in 2 (3.8%, 2/52) patients: one case was pancreatitis, another case was hepatitis combined with myositis and myocarditis. Conclusion:The preliminary results show that SCRT-based TNT combined with PD-1 inhibitors could further improve the CR rate for LARC without unexpected serious adverse events.
8.The efficacy and safety of nebulized inhalation of recombinant human interferon α1b in the treatment of pediatric respiratory syncytial viral associated lower respiratory tract infections: a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase Ⅲ clinical study
Xiaohui LIU ; Baoping XU ; Yunxiao SHANG ; Han ZHANG ; Zhenkun ZHANG ; Guangyu LIN ; Ju YIN ; Aihua CUI ; Guocheng ZHANG ; Zhaoling SHI ; Liwei GAO ; Chunming JIANG ; Junmei BIAN ; Yongjian HUANG ; Rongfang ZHANG ; Xiaomei LIU ; Xiaoqing YANG ; Yu TANG ; Lili ZHONG ; Hongmei QIAO ; Chuangli HAO ; Yuqing WANG ; Qubei LI ; Ling CAO ; Yungang YANG ; Ling LU ; Rongjun LIN ; Xingzhen SUN ; Wei ZHOU ; Qiang CHEN ; Jikui DENG ; Yuejie ZHENG ; Lin ZHAO ; Tao AI ; Xiaohong LIU ; Xiaoxia LU ; Ning JIANG ; Ming LI
Chinese Journal of Applied Clinical Pediatrics 2025;40(3):180-186
Objective:To evaluate the efficacy and safety of nebulized inhalation of recombinant human interferon (IFN) α1b injection in the treatment of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) associated lower respiratory tract infections (pneumonia and bronchiolitis) in children.Methods:A randomized, double-blind, parallel, placebo-controlled add-on design was used.Children with pneumonia or bronchiolitis aged 2 months to 5 years who tested positive for RSV antigen within 72 hours of onset from 30 clinical trial sites including Beijing Children′s Hospital, Capital Medical University between February 2021 and December 2022 were included in this study and randomly divided into 2 groups at a ratio of 1∶1 based on a stratified-block method.Both groups received basic treatments such as cough control, asthma relieving, expectorant treatment, fever reduction, oxygen therapy, etc.The experimental group received additional nebulized inhalation of IFN α1b injection at a dose of 2.0 μg/(kg·time), twice a day.The control group received nebulized inhalation of placebo twice a day.Clinical efficacy was evaluated based on indicators such as the duration of clinical symptoms and signs, and the Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the median and 95% CI of the duration of clinical symptoms and signs.The Log-rank test was used to compared data between groups.Safety was assessed through the incidence of adverse reactions and laboratory tests, and the Chi-square test was used to analyze the difference between groups. Results:There were 123 children in the experimental group and 122 children in the control group.The median durations of all the 5 clinical symptoms and signs [including shortness of breath, wheezing, dyspnea (visible retractions), decreased transcutaneous oxygen saturation, and abnormal mental state] in the experimental group after treatment were slightly shortened than those in the control group [2.7 d(95% CI: 1.9-3.0 d)] vs.[2.9 d(95% CI: 2.6-3.6 d), P=0.027].The improvement in dyspnea (retractions) was especially pronounced in the experimental group, with a relief rate of 50.0% (0, 100%) on the first day of administration[compared with 0 (0, 50.0%) in the control group ( Z=2.002, P=0.025)].The median duration of dyspnea in the experimental group was nearly 1 day shorter than that in the control group [1.0 d(95% CI: 0.7-1.7 d) vs.1.8 d(95% CI: 1.0-2.5 d), P=0.046].There were no significant difference in hospital stay [6.0(5.0, 8.0) d vs.6.5(5.0, 8.0) d, Z=0.675, P=0.500], oxygen therapy duration [32.0(14.0, 96.3) h vs.39.0 (24.0, 83.2) h, Z=0.094, P=0.925], the recovery rate from clinical symptoms during treatment [(105/106, 99.1%) vs.(96/101, 95.0%)], and recurrence rate [(0/106, 0) vs.(2/101, 2.0%)] between the 2 groups (all P>0.05).However, the above-mentioned four indicators in the experimental group showed a trend of clinical benefits.The quantitative virus detection results showed that the RSV viral load in both groups decreased after treatment compared to before treatment.After 2 days of treatment, the decline rate of RSV viral load from the baseline was 0.90 lg copies/(mL·d) in the experimental group and 0.25 lg copies/(mL·d)in the control group, with a statistically significant difference ( P<0.05).Furthermore, there was no statistically significant difference in the incidence of adverse reactions between the 2 groups ( P>0.05).Importantly, no drug-related serious adverse reactions occurred in both groups. Conclusions:The nebulized inhalation therapy of IFN α1b demonstrates efficacy and safety in treating pediatric RSV associated lower respiratory tract infections.It particularly offers outstanding clinical therapeutic value for severe children.
9.Guideline for Adult Weight Management in China
Weiqing WANG ; Qin WAN ; Jianhua MA ; Guang WANG ; Yufan WANG ; Guixia WANG ; Yongquan SHI ; Tingjun YE ; Xiaoguang SHI ; Jian KUANG ; Bo FENG ; Xiuyan FENG ; Guang NING ; Yiming MU ; Hongyu KUANG ; Xiaoping XING ; Chunli PIAO ; Xingbo CHENG ; Zhifeng CHENG ; Yufang BI ; Yan BI ; Wenshan LYU ; Dalong ZHU ; Cuiyan ZHU ; Wei ZHU ; Fei HUA ; Fei XIANG ; Shuang YAN ; Zilin SUN ; Yadong SUN ; Liqin SUN ; Luying SUN ; Li YAN ; Yanbing LI ; Hong LI ; Shu LI ; Ling LI ; Yiming LI ; Chenzhong LI ; Hua YANG ; Jinkui YANG ; Ling YANG ; Ying YANG ; Tao YANG ; Xiao YANG ; Xinhua XIAO ; Dan WU ; Jinsong KUANG ; Lanjie HE ; Wei GU ; Jie SHEN ; Yongfeng SONG ; Qiao ZHANG ; Hong ZHANG ; Yuwei ZHANG ; Junqing ZHANG ; Xianfeng ZHANG ; Miao ZHANG ; Yifei ZHANG ; Yingli LU ; Hong CHEN ; Li CHEN ; Bing CHEN ; Shihong CHEN ; Guiyan CHEN ; Haibing CHEN ; Lei CHEN ; Yanyan CHEN ; Genben CHEN ; Yikun ZHOU ; Xianghai ZHOU ; Qiang ZHOU ; Jiaqiang ZHOU ; Hongting ZHENG ; Zhongyan SHAN ; Jiajun ZHAO ; Dong ZHAO ; Ji HU ; Jiang HU ; Xinguo HOU ; Bimin SHI ; Tianpei HONG ; Mingxia YUAN ; Weibo XIA ; Xuejiang GU ; Yong XU ; Shuguang PANG ; Tianshu GAO ; Zuhua GAO ; Xiaohui GUO ; Hongyi CAO ; Mingfeng CAO ; Xiaopei CAO ; Jing MA ; Bin LU ; Zhen LIANG ; Jun LIANG ; Min LONG ; Yongde PENG ; Jin LU ; Hongyun LU ; Yan LU ; Chunping ZENG ; Binhong WEN ; Xueyong LOU ; Qingbo GUAN ; Lin LIAO ; Xin LIAO ; Ping XIONG ; Yaoming XUE
Chinese Journal of Endocrinology and Metabolism 2025;41(11):891-907
Body weight abnormalities, including overweight, obesity, and underweight, have become a dual public health challenge in Chinese adults: overweight and obesity lead to a variety of chronic complications, while underweight increases the risks of malnutrition, sarcopenia, and organ dysfunction. To systematically address these issues, multidisciplinary experts in endocrinology, sports science, nutrition, and psychiatry from various regions have held multiple weight management seminars. Based on the latest epidemiological data and clinical evidence, they expanded the guideline to include assessment and intervention strategies for underweight, in addition to the core content of obesity management. This guideline outlines the etiological mechanisms, evaluation methods, and multidimensional management strategies for overweight and obesity, covering key areas such as diagnosis and assessment, medical nutrition therapy, exercise prescription, pharmacological intervention, and psychological support. It is intended to provide a scientific and standardized approach to weight management across the adult population, aiming to curb the rising prevalence of obesity, mitigate complications associated with abnormal body weight, and improve nutritional status and overall quality of life.
10.Research on the Extraction of Elements of Complex Scenarios of Medical Surge and the Logical Deduction of Evolution
Tian YU ; Nan MENG ; Yiran GAO ; Min WEI ; Yanping WANG ; Lili JIANG ; Xin ZHANG ; Ning NING ; Zheng KANG ; Avdeev SERGEY ; Qunhong WU
Chinese Hospital Management 2025;45(11):11-16,21
Objective Exploring the components of complex scenarios of healthcare surges triggered by major epidemics to provide a theorical basis for building resilience in healthcare organizations.Methods A hybrid analysis method is used to summarize macro-meso-micro multi-level and multi-source heterogeneous information,extract the elements of complex scenarios of medical surge and evaluate the rationality.Fault Tree Analysis method is used to clarify the logical relationship between various scenario elements and construct scenario reasoning paths.Results 10 scenario states,11 disaster-bearing,24 emergency management and 23 scenario results are summarized and extracted to form the key elements of complex surge scenarios.Among them,M4 expansion and coordinated scheduling of key positions,B2 conventional drug inventory emergency/insufficient core treatment drugs,B emergency medical material transportation breakage,S3 disease symptom spectrum shift to severe disease,R13 prevention and control awareness laxity,and M5 media information dissemination management are the key driving factors that promote a major turning point in the scenario.The most positive scenario result is the orderly operation of the medical service system,and the most negative scenario result is the paralysis of the medical service system.Conclusion Medical institutions need to improve emergency plans based on the complex evolution scenarios of medical surges and agile governance capabilities targeting key turning points,focus on dynamically expanding and scheduling personnel in key positions,strengthen material rotation and reserve mechanisms,maintain smooth emergency logistics channels,and improve efficient management of media and public opinion,so as to comprehensively improve overall resilience.

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