1.Epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal aggregation of scarlet fever in Nantong City in 2009 - 2023
Chao BAO ; Junfeng MIAO ; Enhui ZHAO ; Zhenzhen LIU ; Wuhong ZHANG ; Ye WEI
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(2):40-44
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering trend of scarlet fever in Nantong from 2009 to 2023, and to provide a scientific basis for scarlet fever prevention and control. Methods The incidence data of scarlet fever in Nantong from 2009 to 2023 were analyzed. Descriptive analysis, seasonal index method and Joinpoint 5.2.0 software were used to analyze epidemiological characteristics. Spatial-temporal clustering was assessed with SaTScan 10.2.5 software. Results The average annual incidence of scarlet fever in Nantong from 2009 to 2023 was 6.54/100 000. The overall morbidity rate of scarlet fever in Nantong had an increasing trend from 2009 to 2019 with an average annual percentage change of 14.55% (t=3.36,P<0.05). The cases mainly occurred during late spring to early summer and late autumn to early winter. Students, preschool children and scattered children were the main scarlet fever population. The average annual incidence of males was significantly higher than that of females (χ2=7.00, P<0.05). Rugao City, Chongchuan District and Tongzhou District were identified as high-incidence areas, accounting for 76.51% of all reported cases. Spatial-temporal scan analysis indicated that Rugao City and Chongchuan District were primary cluster areas, spanning from 2015 to 2021 (RR=3.77, LLR=1 308.07, P<0.05). Conclusion The number of reported cases of scarlet fever in Nantong City from 2009 to 2023 shows epidemic and spatial clustering, mainly concentrated in the central urban area and adjacent counties (cities). It is necessary to strengthen health education and disease surveillance in high-incidence areas, as well as in key institutions and key populations before epidemic peaks.
2.Pre-operative risk assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence in liver transplant recipients by non-invasive detection of pre-existing genetic lesions
Suqin YANG ; Sunbin LING ; Jianhua LI ; Yan WANG ; Jiapei WANG ; Qiwei HUANG ; Fanming LIU ; Yiqi ZHUANG ; Yingyu ZHENG ; Rui WANG ; Zhe YANG ; Xiaoping ZHENG ; Kai WANG ; Zhikun LIU ; Jun CHEN ; Jianguo WANG ; Haiyang XIE ; Lin ZHOU ; Leiming CHEN ; Guoqiang CAO ; Dandan CHEN ; Junfang JI ; Bin ZHAO ; Chao JIANG ; Di LU ; Xuyong WEI ; Hangjin JIANG ; Qiaonan SHAN ; Hengbo SHI ; Yong-Zhen XU ; Shusen ZHENG ; Zhengxin WANG ; Shengda LIN ; Xiao XU
Clinical and Molecular Hepatology 2026;32(2):884-903
Background/Aims:
Liver transplantation (LT) following total hepatectomy is a life-saving treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The HCC recurrence after LT hinders the effectiveness of the procedure. The objective of this study is to develop a pre-operative risk stratification model based on a liquid biopsy.
Methods:
We conducted a comprehensive multi-omics study of 260 HCC patients from three centers, including clinical data, low-coverage whole-genome sequencing of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) from plasma, as well as whole-exome, single-nucleus RNA, and spatial transcriptomics from matched tumor and non-tumor tissues.
Results:
We identified cfDNA-derived copy number alteration (CNA) signatures associated with post-transplant recurrence. By integrating cfDNA-derived CNA profiles with single-cell transcriptomic data, we traced recurrence-associated cfDNA to a distinct subpopulation of malignant cells within the primary tumor. These cells were embedded in a pro-metastatic microenvironment of specialized endothelial subtypes and cancer-associated fibroblasts. Notably, most recurrence-associated lesions were detectable in cfDNA prior to liver transplantation (LT). Building on these insights, we developed the ZJU Criteria based on CNA fragments and tumor markers, a pre-LT risk prediction tool that integrates conventional clinical factors with cfDNA-derived CNA signatures, and validated it using internal and independent external cohorts.
Conclusion
Our findings suggest that post-transplant recurrence commonly originates from advanced subclones that emerge late during tumor evolution. The ZJU Criteria provides an accurate, non-invasive strategy that significantly improves pre-LT risk stratification and clinical decision-making for patients with HCC.
3.Differences in deltamethrin resistance and kdr gene mutation in Culex tritaeniorhynchus population in and outside the Yellow Sea wetland
Xiao-er ZHANG ; Zhi-ming WU ; Ye TIAN ; Qian CUI ; Yu-qian JI ; Huan WANG ; Shu-juan YANG ; Yi-chao ZHAO ; Yu WANG ; Hua-yu YIN ; Yu DING ; Guo-jin YAN ; Min-sen ZHAO ; Shou-gang ZHANG ; Bing-dong SONG ; Hong-na CHEN ; Jian GAO ; Wei-fang YANG ; Yu-fu ZHANG ; Hui LIU ; Hong-liang CHU
Acta Parasitologica et Medica Entomologica Sinica 2026;33(2):101-107
Objective To gain insights into the biological characteristics of different populations of Culex tritaeniorhynchus within and around the Yellow Sea wetland from the perspective of the occurrence of resistance, we investigated the levels of resistance to deltamethrin and kdr gene mutation in the wetland and its peripheral areas. Methods Specimens were collected from Cx. tritaeniorhynchus populations at two monitoring sites in the Rare Bird National Nature Reserve and Tiaozi Ni Wetland Scenic Area, and also from two populations in Yancheng City and the Liuhe District of Nanjing, and the resistance of these mosquitoes to deltamethrin was determined using the CDC biotest bottle method. For each concentration of deltamethrin assessed, a random subset of exposed specimens was selected for amplification of the kdr gene fragment, followed by Sanger sequencing to identify and analyze resistance-associated mutations. Results The LC50 levels of deltamethrin among mosquitoes from the four populations in Luhe, Yancheng, the Rare Bird National Nature Reserve and the Tiaozi Ni Wetland Scenic Area were 2.048 5, 7.798 2, 3.473 3, and 17.695 5 mg/mL, respectively, with corresponding concentrations of deltamethrin ranging from 0.005 to 5.000,0.050 to 50.000,0.050 to 25.000 and 0.050 to 50.000 mg/mL, respectively. Furthermore, the ranges of the KT50 values were 11.76-107.43, 67.05-216.30,29.77-107.43 and 28.40-329.51 min; the 1-h knockdown rates were 34.58%-99.15%, 9.52%-43.80%, 55.09%-73.01%, and 10.09%-68.07%; and the 24-h mortality rates were 12.15%-67.52%,9.52%-79.56%,13.17%-82.21%, and 11.01%-78.99%, respectively. With respect to kdr gene mutation, we assayed a total of 63,70,59, and 57 mosquitoes for the four populations, for which we detected L1014F mutation frequencies of 14.29%, 35.00%, 20.34%, and 31.58%, respectively, with a majority of these mutations being heterozygous for resistance. In addition, five adult mosquitoes were identified has having synonymous mutations at site 1011[i. e. , AAT(asparagine)mutation to AAC(asparagine)]. Conclusions Our findings revealed the clear resistance of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus to deltamethrin in the Yancheng region of the Yellow Sea wetland, and the resistance phenotype and kdr frequency of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in the wetland environment were comparable to those of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in the wetland environment, thereby indicating that the resistance of different populations of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus was homogeneous under the pressure of different insecticide selection within and around the wetland. However, the underlying mechanisms need to be further studied.
4.Risk prediction of Reduning Injection batches by near-infrared spectroscopy combined with multiple machine learning algorithms.
Wen-Yu JIA ; Feng TONG ; Heng-Xu LIU ; Shu-Qin JIN ; Yong-Chao ZHANG ; Chen-Feng ZHANG ; Zhen-Zhong WANG ; Xin ZHANG ; Wei XIAO
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(2):430-438
In this paper, near-infrared spectroscopy(NIRS) was employed to analyze 129 batches of commercial products of Reduning Injection. The batch reporting rate was estimated according to the report of Reduning Injection in the direct adverse drug reaction(ADR) reporting system of the drug marketing authorization holder of the Center for Drug Reevaluation of the National Medical Products Administration(National Center for ADR Monitoring) from August 2021 to August 2022. According to the batch reporting rate, the samples of Reduning Injection were classified into those with potential risks and those being safe. No processing, random oversampling(ROS), random undersampling(RUS), and synthetic minority over-sampling technique(SMOTE) were then employed to balance the unbalanced data. After the samples were classified according to appropriate sampling methods, competitive adaptive reweighted sampling(CARS), successive projections algorithm(SPA), uninformative variables elimination(UVE), and genetic algorithm(GA) were respectively adopted to screen the features of spectral data. Then, support vector machine(SVM), logistic regression(LR), k-nearest neighbors(KNN), naive bayes(NB), random forest(RF), and artificial neural network(ANN) were adopted to establish the risk prediction models. The effects of the four feature extraction methods on the accuracy of the models were compared. The optimal method was selected, and bayesian optimization was performned to optimize the model parameters to improve the accuracy and robustness of model prediction. To explore the correlations between potential risks of clinical use and quality test data, TreeNet was employed to identify potential quality parameters affecting the clinical safety of Reduning Injection. The results showed that the models established with the SVM, LR, KNN, NB, RF, and ANN algorithms had the F1 scores of 0.85, 0.85, 0.86, 0.80, 0.88, and 0.85 and the accuracy of 88%, 88%, 88%, 85%, 91%, and 88%, respectively, and the prediction time was less than 5 s. The results indicated that the established models were accurate and efficient. Therefore, near infrared spectroscopy combined with machine learning algorithms can quickly predict the potential risks of clinical use of Reduning Injection in batches. Three key quality parameters that may affect clinical safety were identified by TreeNet, which provided a scientific basis for improving the safety standards of Reduning Injection.
Spectroscopy, Near-Infrared/methods*
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
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Machine Learning
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Algorithms
;
Humans
;
Quality Control
5.Network pharmacology and animal experiments reveal molecular mechanisms of Cordyceps sinensis in ameliorating heart aging and injury in mice by regulating Nrf2/HO-1/NF-κB pathway.
Si-Yi LIU ; Yue TU ; Wei-Ming HE ; Wen-Jie LIU ; Kai-Zhi WEN ; Cheng-Juan LI ; Chao HAN ; Xin-Yu LIANG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(4):1063-1074
This study aims to explore the effects and mechanisms of the traditional Chinese medicine Cordyceps sinensis(CS) in ameliorating heart aging and injury in mice based on animal experiments and network pharmacology. A mouse model of heart aging was established by continuously subcutaneous injection of D-galactose(D-gal). Thirty mice were randomly assigned into a normal group, a model group, a low-dose CS(CS-L) group, a high-dose CS(CS-H) group, and a vitamin E(VE) group. Mice in these groups were administrated with normal saline, different doses of CS suspension, or VE suspension via gavage daily. After 60 days of treatment with D-gal and various drugs, all mice were euthanized, and blood and heart tissue samples were collected for determination of the indicators related to heart aging and injury in mice. Experimental results showed that both high and low doses of CS and VE ameliorated the aging phenotype, improved the heart index and myocardial enzyme spectrum, restored the expression levels of proteins associated with cell cycle arrest and senescence-associated secretory phenotypes(SASP), and alleviated the fibrosis and histopathological changes of the heart tissue in model mice. From the Traditional Chinese Medicine Systems Pharmacology Database and Analysis Platform(TCMSP),259 active ingredients of CS were retrieved. From Gene Cards and OMIM, 2 568 targets related to heart aging were identified, and 133common targets shared by CS and heart aging were obtained. The Gene Ontology(GO) functional annotation and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes( KEGG) pathway enrichment revealed that the pathways related to heart aging involved oxidative stress,apoptosis, inflammation-related signaling pathways, etc. The animal experiment results showed that both high and low doses of CS and VE ameliorated oxidative stress and apoptosis in the heart tissue to varying degrees in model mice. Additionally, CS-H and VE activated the nuclear factor E2-related factor 2(Nrf2)/heme oxygenase-1(HO-1) pathway and inhibited the expression of key proteins in the nuclear factor-κB(NF-κB) pathway in the heart tissue of model mice. In conclusion, this study demonstrated based on network pharmacology and animal experiments that CS may alleviate heart aging and injury in aging mice by reducing oxidative stress,apoptosis, and inflammation in the heart via the Nrf2/HO-1/NF-κB pathway.
Animals
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Cordyceps/chemistry*
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Mice
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NF-E2-Related Factor 2/genetics*
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NF-kappa B/genetics*
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Aging/genetics*
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Male
;
Signal Transduction/drug effects*
;
Network Pharmacology
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/pharmacology*
;
Heme Oxygenase-1/genetics*
;
Heart/drug effects*
;
Humans
;
Myocardium/metabolism*
;
Membrane Proteins/genetics*
6.Dahuang Zhechong Pills delay heart aging by reducing cardiomyocyte apoptosis via PI3K/AKT/HIF-1α signaling pathway.
Wen-Jie LIU ; Yue TU ; Wei-Ming HE ; Si-Yi LIU ; Liu-Yun-Xin PAN ; Kai-Zhi WEN ; Cheng-Juan LI ; Chao HAN
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(5):1276-1285
This study aimed to investigate the effect of Dahuang Zhechong Pills(DHZCP) in delaying heart aging(HA) and explore the potential mechanism. Network pharmacology and molecular docking were employed to explore the targets and potential mechanisms of DHZCP in delaying HA. Furthermore, in vitro experiments were conducted with the DHZCP-containing serum to verify key targets and pathways in D-galactose(D-gal)-induced aging of cardiomyocytes. Active components of DHZCP were searched against the Traditional Chinese Medicine Systems Pharmacology Database and Analysis Platform(TCSMP), and relevant targets were predicted. HA-related targets were screened from the GeneCards, Online Mendelian Inheritance in Man(OMIM), and DisGeNET. The common targets shared by the active components of DHZCP and HA were used to construct a protein-protein interaction network in STRING 12.0, and core targets were screened based on degree in Cytoscape 3.9.1. Metaspace was used for Gene Ontology(GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes(KEGG) enrichment analyses of the core targets to predict the mechanisms. Molecular docking was performed in AutoDock Vina. The results indicated that a total of 774 targets of the active components of DHZCP and 4 520 targets related to HA were screened out, including 510 common targets. Core targets included B-cell lymphoma 2(BCL-2), serine/threonine kinase 1(AKT1), and hypoxia-inducible factor 1 subunit A(HIF1A). The GO and KEGG enrichment analyses suggested that DHZCP mainly exerted its effects via the phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase(PI3K)/AKT signaling pathway, HIF-1α signaling pathway, longevity signaling pathway, and apoptosis signaling pathway. Among the pathways predicted by GO and KEGG enrichment analyses, the PI3K/AKT/HIF-1α signaling pathway was selected for verification. The cell-counting kit 8(CCK-8) assay showed that D-gal significantly inhibited the proliferation of H9c2 cells, while DHZCP-containing serum increased the viability of H9c2 cells. SA-β-gal staining revealed a significant increase in the number of blue-green positive cells in the D-gal group, which was reduced by DHZCP-containing serum. TUNEL staining showed that DHZCP-containing serum decreased the number of apoptotic cells. After treatment with DHZCP-containing serum, the protein levels of Klotho, BCL-2, p-PI3K/PI3K, p-AKT1/AKT1, and HIF-1α were up-regulated, while those of P21, P16, BCL-2 associated X protein(Bax), and cleaved caspase-3 were down-regulated. The results indicated that DHZCP delayed HA via multiple components, targets, and pathways. Specifically, DHZCP may delay HA by reducing apoptosis via activating the PI3K/AKT/HIF-1α signaling pathway.
Proto-Oncogene Proteins c-akt/genetics*
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/pharmacology*
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Signal Transduction/drug effects*
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Apoptosis/drug effects*
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Myocytes, Cardiac/cytology*
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Hypoxia-Inducible Factor 1, alpha Subunit/genetics*
;
Phosphatidylinositol 3-Kinases/genetics*
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Animals
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Rats
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Humans
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Molecular Docking Simulation
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Aging/metabolism*
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Protein Interaction Maps/drug effects*
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Heart/drug effects*
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Network Pharmacology
7.Metabolomics and pharmacokinetics of Corni Fructus in ameliorating myocardial ischemic injury.
Xiang-Feng LIU ; Yu WU ; Chao-Yan YANG ; Hua-Wei LIAO ; Yan-Fen CHEN ; Xin HE ; Ying-Fang WANG ; Jin-Ru LIANG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(5):1363-1376
This study aims to investigate the ameliorating effect of Corni Fructus(CF) on the myocardial ischemic injury and the pharmacokinetic properties of characteristic components of CF. The mouse model of isoproterenol-induced myocardial ischemia was established and administrated with the aqueous extract of CF. The general efficacy of CF in ameliorating the myocardial ischemic injury was evaluated based on the cardiac histopathology and the levels of myocardial injury markers: creatine kinase isoenzyme(CK-MB) and cardiac troponin I(cTn-I). The metabolomics analysis was carried out for the heart and serum samples of mice to screen the biomarkers of CF in ameliorating the myocardial ischemic injury and then the predicted biomarkers were submitted to metabolic pathway enrichment. The pharmacokinetic analysis was performed for morroniside, loganin, and cornuside Ⅰ in mouse heart and serum samples to obtain the pharmacokinetic parameters of these components. The pharmacokinetic parameters were then integrated on the basis of self-defined weighting coefficients to simulate an integrated pharmacokinetic profile of CF iridoid glycosides in the heart and serum of the mouse model of myocardial ischemia. The results indicated that CF reduced the pathological damage to cardiac cells and tissue(hematoxylin-eosin staining) and lowered the levels of CK-MB and cTn-I in the serum of the mouse model of myocardial ischemia(P<0.01). Metabolomics analysis screed out 31 endogenous metabolites in the heart and 35 in the serum as biomarkers of CF in ameliorating the myocardial ischemic injury. These biomarkers were altered by modeling and restored by CF. Six metabolic pathways in the heart and 5 in the serum were enriched based on these metabolic markers. The main integrated pharmacokinetic parameters of CF iridoid glycosides were T_(max)=1 h, t_(1/2)=(1.52±0.05) h in the heart and T_(max)=1 h, t_(1/2)=(1.56±0.50) h in the serum. Both concentration-time curves showed a double-peak phenomenon. In conclusion, CF demonstrated the cardioprotective effect by regulating metabolic pathways such as taurine and hypotaurine metabolism, and pantothenic acid and coenzyme A biosynthesis. The integrated pharmacokinetics reflect the general pharmacokinetic properties of characteristic components in CF.
Animals
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Cornus/chemistry*
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Mice
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Metabolomics
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Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage*
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Male
;
Myocardial Ischemia/metabolism*
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Humans
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Troponin I/metabolism*
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Myocardium/pathology*
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Disease Models, Animal
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Biomarkers/metabolism*
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Creatine Kinase, MB Form/metabolism*
8.Preliminary application of human-computer interaction CT imaging AI recognition and positioning technology in the treatment of type C1 distal radius fractures.
Yong-Zhong CHENG ; Xiao-Dong YIN ; Fei LIU ; Xin-Heng DENG ; Chao-Lu WANG ; Shu-Ke CUI ; Yong-Yao LI ; Wei YAN
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(1):31-40
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the accuracy of human-computer interaction software in identifying and locating type C1 distal radius fractures.
METHODS:
Based on relevant inclusion and exclusion criteria, 14 cases of type C1 distal radius fractures between September 2023 and March 2024 were retrospectively analyzed, comprising 3 males and 11 females(aged from 27 to 82 years). The data were assigned randomized identifiers. A senior orthopedic physician reviewed the films and measured the ulnar deviation angle, radial height, palmar inclination angle, intra-articular step, and intra-articular gap for each case on the hospital's imaging system. Based on the reduction standard for distal radius fractures, cases were divided into reduction group and non-reduction group. Then, the data were sequentially imported into a human-computer interaction intelligent software, where a junior orthopedic physician analyzed the same radiological parameters, categorized cases, and measured fracture details. The categorization results from the software were consistent with manual classifications (6 reduction cases and 8 non-reduction cases). For non-reduction cases, the software performed further analyses, including bone segmentation and fracture recognition, generating 8 diagnostic reports containing fracture recognition information. For the 6 reduction cases, the senior and junior orthopedic physicians independently analyzed the data on the hospital's imaging system and the AI software, respectively. Bone segments requiring reduction were identified, verified by two senior physicians, and measured for displacement and rotation along the X (inward and outward), Z (front and back), and Y (up and down) axes. The AI software generated comprehensive diagnostic reports for these cases, which included all measurements and fracture recognition details.
RESULTS:
Both the manual and AI software methods consistently categorized the 14 cases into 6 reduction and 8 non-reduction groups, with identical data distributions. A paired sample t-test revealed no statistically significant differences (P>0.05) between the manual and software-based measurements for ulnar deviation angle, radial ulnar bone height, palmar inclination angle, intra-articular step, and joint space. In fracture recognition, the AI software correctly identified 10 C-type fractures and 4 B-type fractures. For the 6 reduction cases, a total of 24 bone fragments were analyzed across both methods. After verification, it was found that the bone fragments identified by the two methods were consistent. A paired sample t-tests revealed that the identified bone fragments and measured displacement and rotation angles along the X, Y, and Z axes were consistent between the two methods. No statistically significant differences(P>0.05) were found between manual and software measurements for these parameters.
CONCLUSION
Human-computer interaction software employing AI technology demonstrated comparable accuracy to manual measurement in identifying and locating type C1 distal radius fractures on CT imaging.
Humans
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Male
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Female
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Radius Fractures/surgery*
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Middle Aged
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Adult
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Aged
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Aged, 80 and over
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Tomography, X-Ray Computed/methods*
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Retrospective Studies
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Software
;
Wrist Fractures
9.Association between improved erectile function and dietary patterns: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
Bin YANG ; Chao WEI ; Yu-Cong ZHANG ; De-Lin MA ; Jian BAI ; Zhuo LIU ; Xia-Ming LIU ; Ji-Hong LIU ; Xiao-Yi YUAN ; Wei-Min YAO
Asian Journal of Andrology 2025;27(2):239-244
Erectile dysfunction (ED) is prevalent among men, but its relationship with dietary habits is uncertain. The aim of our study was to assess whether dietary patterns enhance erectile function by reviewing the literature published before August 1, 2022, via PubMed, Web of Science, and EMBASE databases. The data compiled included author details; publication dates, countries, treatments, patient numbers, ages, follow-ups, and clinical trial outcomes, such as ED cases, odds ratios (ORs), confidence intervals (CIs), and International Index of Erectile Function-5 (IIEF-5) scores with means and standard deviations. An analysis of 14 studies with 27 389 participants revealed that plant-based diets (OR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.66-0.75; P < 0.00001), low-fat diets (OR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.13-0.53; P = 0.0002), and alternative diets such as intermittent fasting and organic diets (OR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.36-0.80; P = 0.002) significantly reduced ED risk. High-protein low-fat diets (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.12-1.64; P < 0.00001) and high-carb low-fat diets (HR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.55-1.04; P < 0.00001) improved IIEF-5 scores. Combined diet and exercise interventions decreased the likelihood of ED (OR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.28-0.85; P = 0.01) and increased the IIEF-5 score (OR = 3.40, 95% CI: 1.69-5.11; P < 0.0001). Diets abundant in fruits and vegetables (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.96-0.98; P < 0.00001) and nuts (OR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.37-0.80; P = 0.002) were also correlated with lower ED risk. Our meta-analysis underscores a strong dietary-ED association, suggesting that low-fat/Mediterranean diets rich in produce and nuts could benefit ED management.
Humans
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Male
;
Erectile Dysfunction/epidemiology*
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Diet
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Diet, Fat-Restricted
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Feeding Behavior
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Penile Erection/physiology*
;
Diet, Vegetarian
10.Multiple biomarkers risk score for accurately predicting the long-term prognosis of patients with acute coronary syndrome.
Zhi-Yong ZHANG ; Xin-Yu WANG ; Cong-Cong HOU ; Hong-Bin LIU ; Lyu LYU ; Mu-Lei CHEN ; Xiao-Rong XU ; Feng JIANG ; Long LI ; Wei-Ming LI ; Kui-Bao LI ; Juan WANG
Journal of Geriatric Cardiology 2025;22(7):656-667
BACKGROUND:
Biomarkers-based prediction of long-term risk of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is scarce. We aim to develop a risk score integrating clinical routine information (C) and plasma biomarkers (B) for predicting long-term risk of ACS patients.
METHODS:
We included 2729 ACS patients from the OCEA (Observation of cardiovascular events in ACS patients). The earlier admitted 1910 patients were enrolled as development cohort; and the subsequently admitted 819 subjects were treated as validation cohort. We investigated 10-year risk of cardiovascular (CV) death, myocardial infarction (MI) and all cause death in these patients. Potential variables contributing to risk of clinical events were assessed using Cox regression models and a score was derived using main part of these variables.
RESULTS:
During 16,110 person-years of follow-up, there were 238 CV death/MI in the development cohort. The 7 most important predictors including in the final model were NT-proBNP, D-dimer, GDF-15, peripheral artery disease (PAD), Fibrinogen, ST-segment elevated MI (STEMI), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), termed as CB-ACS score. C-index of the score for predication of cardiovascular events was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.76-0.82) in development cohort and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.76-0.78) in the validation cohort (5832 person-years of follow-up), which outperformed GRACE 2.0 and ABC-ACS risk score. The CB-ACS score was also well calibrated in development and validation cohort (Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino: P = 0.70 and P = 0.07, respectively).
CONCLUSIONS
CB-ACS risk score provides a useful tool for long-term prediction of CV events in patients with ACS. This model outperforms GRACE 2.0 and ABC-ACS ischemic risk score.


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