OBJECTIVETo discuss the relationship between the onset of peptic ulcers (PU) and meteorological factors (MF).

METHODSIn reviewing records from 17 hospitals in the city of Nanning from 1992 to 1997, we found 24, 252 cases of PU in 104, 121 samples of gastroscopic examinations. We then calculated the detectable rate of PU (DRPU) during each season every five days (FD) and made a correlated analysis with the seasonal MF during the same period in Nanning. Finally, we made a multiple regressive correlated analysis of DRPU and the 5MF for the same period of the year. A forecast model based on the MF of the previous FD was established. The real value and the forecast value was being tested and verified.

RESULTSFrom 1992 to 1997, the DRPU is: winter and spring > summer and autumn (P < 0.005). There is a close relationship between the DRPU and the average temperature (AT), the average highest temperature (AHT), the average lowest temperature (ALT), average air pressure (AAP) and the average dew point temperature (ADT) of the five days of the same period of the year (the correlated coefficients are -0.5348, -05167, -0.5384, 0.4579 and -0.4936, respectively), with P < 0.01. The AT, AHT, ALT, AAP and ADT of the previous FD are of great value in forecasting the onset of PU, with its real value and forecast value corresponding to 66.6%.

CONCLUSIONSThere exists a close relationship between DRPU and the AT, AHT, ALT, AAP and ADT of the FD for the same period. A mid-term medical meteorological forecast of the onset of PU can be made more accurately and reliably according to the close relation between the DRPU and some MF of the previous FD.

Forecasting ; Humans ; Meteorological Concepts ; Peptic Ulcer ; epidemiology ; Pressure ; Seasons ; Temperature