OBJECTIVE:Postoperative recurrence is a common complication of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy for lumbar disc herniation,which can significantly increase the risk of reoperation.A well-performing risk prediction model can help identify high-risk groups early and prevent postoperative recurrence.This study systematically evaluated the risk prediction model for postoperative recurrence after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy to provide a reference for surgical decision-making.METHODS:The PubMed,Embase,Web of Science,CNKI,WanFang Data,VIP,and CBM were electronically searched to collect studies on the recurrence risk prediction models after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy from inception to July 1,2024.Two reviewers independently screened the literature and extracted data.The models' risk of bias,applicability,and report quality were assessed using prediction model risk of bias assessment tool(PROBAST)and Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis(TRIPOD)tools,respectively.Meta-analysis of postoperative recurrence rate of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy and related predictors was performed using Revman 5.4 software.RESULTS:(1)A total of 15 studies were included,all of which were retrospective studies,including 24 models for predicting the risk of recurrence after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy.(2)The PROBAST evaluation results indicated that all 15 studies exhibited a high risk of bias.Regarding applicability,two studies demonstrated a low risk,while 13 presented a high risk.(3)Regarding the TRIPOD reporting quality,the overall quality across the 15 studies was low.The primary reasons for this low compliance included the failure to report blinding,a lack of explanation for the sample size calculation method,lack of detailed description of missing data processing methods,and lack of information such as introduction to the model used.(4)Furthermore,the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model ranged from 0.684 to 0.972,with the number of potential predictor variables varying from 15 to 28.(5)The results of meta-analysis showed that the postoperative recurrence rate of lumbar disc herniation patients treated with percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy was 12％(95％CI=9.0％-15.0％),Modic changes(OR=6.72,95％CI=3.90-11.59),body mass index(OR=1.28,95％CI=1.10-1.49),work intensity(OR=3.22,95％CI=1.85-5.59),age(OR=2.28,95％CI=1.50-3.48),and smoking history(OR=2.65,95％CI=1.75-4.00)were independent influencing factors for postoperative recurrence of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy(all P＜0.05).CONCLUSION:The overall predictive performance of the recurrence risk prediction models after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy is satisfactory;however,the model exhibits a high overall risk of bias and applicability,coupled with low reporting quality.Additionally,there is a lack of prospective research and external validation.Future,risk prediction models should consider factors such as Modic changes,body mass index,work intensity,age,and smoking history as potential predictors.

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Shanxi Province from 2012 to 2024, and predict the incidence trend for 2025, and to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of prevention and control strategies. Methods Based on the surveillance data of HFMD in Shanxi Province from 2012 to 2024, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and time trends of the disease were analyzed. The ARIMA model was constructed and used to predict the incidence trend in 2025. Results From 2012 to 2024, a total of 254 028 HFMD cases were reported in Shanxi Province, with an average annual incidence rate of 54.17 per 100 000 population, a severe case rate of 0.56%, and a case fatality rate (CFR) of 12.60 per 100 000 population. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence rate, severe case rate, mortality rate, and case fatality rate all presented a downward trend. The epidemic exhibited obvious seasonal distribution characteristics, with the peak period from April to November, and two incidence peaks in June-July and October-November. The male-to-female incidence ratio was 1.41:1. Children aged 1-5 years accounted for 89.24% of the total cases, among which scattered children (58.48%) and nursery children (33.54%) were the high-risk groups. Linfen City (96.06 /100 000) and Taiyuan City (88.54 /100 000) had relatively high incidence rates. After 2017, the proportion of enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) decreased, while coxsackievirus A16 (Cox-A16) and other enteroviruses became the main epidemic strains. The ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)₁₂ model predicted that the incidence of HFMD in 2025 would remain at the level of 2023-2024, and the dual-peak characteristic would continue. Conclusion From 2012 to 2024, the overall HFMD epidemic in Shanxi Province generally shows a significant downward trend. The high-risk population includes scattered children and nursery children under 5 years old, with high-incidence areas concentrated in the central and southern regions, requiring focused attention. The seasonal ARIMA model can effectively fit the evolutionary trend of HFMD incidence in Shanxi Province and possesses short-term predictive capability.

Background Ozone (O₃) is a major air pollutant. The existing monitoring system has uneven distribution of sites, insufficient coverage in underdeveloped areas, and low temporal resolution, making it difficult to obtain hourly data. This limits the dynamic identification of pollution and the formulation of prevention and control strategies. Objective To construct an hourly O₃ concentration estimation model based on ensemble machine learning, aiming to improve the accuracy of pollution exposure assessment and explore O₃ health impacts. Methods This study integrated land use regression modeling with modern machine learning techniques, employing random forest and XGBoost algorithms to construct base models, and stacking integration using non-negative least squares. The ensemble model was trained and validated across China using high-resolution, multi-source geographic data (e.g., meteorologicaldata, population density, land cover types, and aerosol optical thickness). It was tested in Taiyuan City, combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to analyze the association between O₃ and emergency admissions. Results The constructed ensemble model performed well in predicting O₃ concentration, with a higher coefficient of determination (R²) and a lower root-mean-square deviation (RMSE) compared to the single models. The R² improved from 0.90 to 0.92, and the RMSE decreased from 11.41 to 10.62, enhancing both prediction accuracy and generalization ability. In the application to Taiyuan City, the model successfully imputed the hourly-level data for the entire year. The distributed lag non-linear model analysis revealed that the relative risk (RR) values for the 6th to 8th days following O₃ exposure were 1.14 (95%CI: 1.01, 1.29), 1.16 (95%CI: 1.02, 1.31), and 1.14 (95%CI: 1.01, 1.29), respectively, which were significantly higher than 1, indicating a significant lagged association (lagged 6-8 d) between O₃ and the number of emergency room visits. Conclusion A high-precision, hourly-level O₃ concentration estimation model is successfully constructed by combining the land use regression model with an ensemble machine learning approach to provide a scientific basis for environmental policy formulation and public health intervention. The application of the model verifies its generalization ability and practical application value, which can provide a new technical framework for subsequent environmental health research.

OBJECTIVE:Postoperative recurrence is a common complication of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy for lumbar disc herniation,which can significantly increase the risk of reoperation.A well-performing risk prediction model can help identify high-risk groups early and prevent postoperative recurrence.This study systematically evaluated the risk prediction model for postoperative recurrence after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy to provide a reference for surgical decision-making.METHODS:The PubMed,Embase,Web of Science,CNKI,WanFang Data,VIP,and CBM were electronically searched to collect studies on the recurrence risk prediction models after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy from inception to July 1,2024.Two reviewers independently screened the literature and extracted data.The models' risk of bias,applicability,and report quality were assessed using prediction model risk of bias assessment tool(PROBAST)and Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis(TRIPOD)tools,respectively.Meta-analysis of postoperative recurrence rate of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy and related predictors was performed using Revman 5.4 software.RESULTS:(1)A total of 15 studies were included,all of which were retrospective studies,including 24 models for predicting the risk of recurrence after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy.(2)The PROBAST evaluation results indicated that all 15 studies exhibited a high risk of bias.Regarding applicability,two studies demonstrated a low risk,while 13 presented a high risk.(3)Regarding the TRIPOD reporting quality,the overall quality across the 15 studies was low.The primary reasons for this low compliance included the failure to report blinding,a lack of explanation for the sample size calculation method,lack of detailed description of missing data processing methods,and lack of information such as introduction to the model used.(4)Furthermore,the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model ranged from 0.684 to 0.972,with the number of potential predictor variables varying from 15 to 28.(5)The results of meta-analysis showed that the postoperative recurrence rate of lumbar disc herniation patients treated with percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy was 12％(95％CI=9.0％-15.0％),Modic changes(OR=6.72,95％CI=3.90-11.59),body mass index(OR=1.28,95％CI=1.10-1.49),work intensity(OR=3.22,95％CI=1.85-5.59),age(OR=2.28,95％CI=1.50-3.48),and smoking history(OR=2.65,95％CI=1.75-4.00)were independent influencing factors for postoperative recurrence of percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy(all P＜0.05).CONCLUSION:The overall predictive performance of the recurrence risk prediction models after percutaneous endoscopic lumbar discectomy is satisfactory;however,the model exhibits a high overall risk of bias and applicability,coupled with low reporting quality.Additionally,there is a lack of prospective research and external validation.Future,risk prediction models should consider factors such as Modic changes,body mass index,work intensity,age,and smoking history as potential predictors.

ObjectiveTo investigate the efficacy and safety of Babaodan Capsule （BBD） in the treatment of patients with chronic hepatitis B virus （HBV） infection with damp-heat in the liver and gallbladder comorbid with gallbladder polyps. MethodsA randomized， double-blinded， placebo-controlled single-center trial was conducted among 120 patients with chronic HBV infection who were admitted to Beijing YouAn Hospital， Capital Medical University， from August 2020 to April 2023， and they were divided into treatment group （BBD） and control group （placebo）， with 60 patients in each group. The course of treatment was 24 weeks， and follow-up assessments were conducted every 4 weeks. The primary outcome measures were the number and maximum diameter of gallbladder polyps （assessed by ultrasound）， and the secondary outcome measures included traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） syndrome score， blood lipid levels， and liver function parameters. The independent-samples t test or the Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups， and the chi-square test or the Fisher’s exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups； the Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used for comparison of ranked data between two groups； the generalized estimating equation was used to analyze repeated measures data. ResultsAfter 8 weeks of treatment， the treatment group had a significantly smaller diameter of polyps and a significantly lower number of polyps than the control group （Z=-1.76 and -1.80， both P<0.05）， and after 24 weeks of treatment， the treatment group had a significantly higher polyp reduction rate than the control group （30.51% vs 10.91%， P<0.05）. The subgroup analysis showed that patients receiving combined antiviral therapy， male patients， patients with a diameter of polyps of <5 mm， and patients with multiple polyps tended to achieve significantly greater benefits. At week 8 of treatment， the treatment group had a significantly better TCM syndrome score than the control group （Z=-2.35， P<0.05）； after treatment， compared with the control group， the treatment group had a significantly greater increase in high-density lipoprotein （Z=-1.85， P<0.05） and significantly lower levels of alanine aminotransferase （Z=-2.06， P <0.05）， aspartate aminotransferase （Z=-2.13， P<0.05）， total bilirubin （Z=-2.12， P<0.05）， and direct bilirubin （Z=-3.09， P<0.05）. No serious adverse events were reported in either group. ConclusionBBD can effectively reduce the size of gallbladder polyps， improve TCM syndrome score， and reduce the level of bilirubin in patients with chronic HBV infection with damp-heat in the liver and gallbladder， with a favorable safety profile， and it may be more suitable for patients receiving combined antiviral therapy and specific subgroups （male patients， patients with a diameter of polyps of <5 mm， and patients with multiple polyps.

OBJECTIVE To systematically evaluate the quality of the Heat-clearing and symptom-relieving formula and screen potential marker components that influence the quality of the formula. METHODS The contents of 11 components （calycosin-7- O - β -D-glucoside， ononin， hyperoside， isoquercitrin， baicalin， baicalein， cryptotanshinone， tanshinone Ⅱ A ， tanshinone Ⅰ， senkyunolide A， ferulic acid） in the Heat-clearing and symptom-relieving formula were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry （HPLC-MS/MS）. Using the contents of the aforementioned components as variables， cluster analysis （CA）， principal component analysis （PCA）， and orthogonal partial least squares-discriminant analysis （OPLS-DA） were conducted using OriginPro 2024 software and SIMCA 14.1 software； marker components affecting the quality of the Heat-clearing and symptom-relieving formula were then screened based on the criteria of variable importance in the projection （VIP） value＞1 and P ＜0.05. The comprehensive evaluation of 20 batches of samples was carried out using the entropy weight-technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution（TOPSIS） and grey correlation analysis （GCA） methods. RESULTS The contents of the above 11 components were 7.993-72.866， 4.542-31.228， 727.666-1 901.884， 496.846-1 293.279， 1 995.501-6 779.150， 54.500-241.280， 150.302-304.339， 79.698-189.206， 257.118-682.418， 5.498-21.687， 7.524-26.935 μg/g. CA， PCA and OPLS-DA results showed that 20 batches of samples were grouped into 2 categories. Q1， Q3， Q4， Q7-Q9， Q12， Q15， Q16 were grouped into one category， and the rest were grouped into another category； VIP values of ferulic acid， tanshinone Ⅱ A ， baicalin， cryptotanshinone， calycosin-7- O - β -D-glucoside and ononin were all greater than 1 （ P ＜0.05）. Both the entropy weight-TOPSIS and GCA methods showed that the samples ranked in the top 11 according to the euclidean distance and relative correlation degree were Q2， Q5， Q6， Q10， Q11， Q13， Q14， Q17-Q20. CONCLUSIONS The established HPLC-MS/MS method is rapid， accurate and highly sens itive. Combined with chemical pattern recognition analysis， entropy weight-TOPSIS and GCA methods， this method can be used to evaluate the quality of the Heat-clearing and symptom-relieving formula. Ferulic acid， tanshinone Ⅱ A ， baicalin， cryptotanshinone， calycosin-7- O - β -D-glucoside and ononin may be the marker components that affect the quality of this formula. The overall quality of 11 batches of the Heat-clearing and symptom-relieving formula， including Q17， is relatively superior.

Background Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) are a major occupational health concern, particularly among workers exposed to adverse ergonomic conditions. Manganese production involves heavy physical demands, yet research on WMSDs among manganese workers remains limited. Objective To investigate the prevalence and influencing factors of WMSDs among manganese workers in a manganese enterprise in Guangxi. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted from May to June 2024 on workers at a manganese factory in Guangxi. The Chinese Musculoskeletal Disorders Questionnaire was used to collect information on demographic characteristics, distribution of musculoskeletal symptoms, and work-related exposures. χ² test was applied to compare differences in positive WMSDs rates across groups, and logistic regression analysis was performed to identify associated factors. Results A total of 1476 workers were enrolled in the study after pre-determined inclusion and exclusion criteria. The overall prevalence of WMSDs was 34.15%. The most commonly affected body regions were the lower back (17.28%), neck (16.67%), and shoulders (13.82%). The results of logistic regression analysis indicated that female, older age, and education level of college or above were associated with a higher risk of WMSDs (P<0.05). Awkward working postures were significantly associated with WMSDs in corresponding body regions; in particular, awkward postures of the neck, upper limbs, trunk, and lower limbs were related to an increased risk of WMSDs in multiple body sites (P<0.05). In addition, poor lighting conditions, high workplace temperature, frequent or sustained arm support during work, and high job demands were associated with an increased risk of overall or site-specific WMSDs (P<0.05). Conclusion The high prevalence of WMSDs among manganese workers is closely associated with demographic characteristics, working postures, and work environment and organizational factors. Targeted ergonomic interventions focusing on high-risk body regions and key ergonomic exposures are warranted to reduce the risk of WMSDs among manganese workers.

To evaluate the application value of the Peyton four-step teaching method in the standardized training of intestinal ultrasound and compare it with traditional teaching methods, so as to provide an optimized approach for clinical ultrasound training.

ObjectiveThis study aims to compare the modeling effects of submaxillary gland antigen and salivary gland antigen in the establishment of Sjögren syndrome (SS) mouse models, and to characterize the phenotypic and immunological features of these models in comparison with spontaneous SS-prone non-obese diabetic (NOD)/LtJ mice. MethodsAdult C57BL/6J mice (equal numbers of males and females) were immunized with submaxillary gland antigen or salivary gland antigen, respectively, combined with Freund's adjuvant to induce SS models. Mice immunized with phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) combined with Freund's adjuvant served as the control group. Immunization was induced via multiple subcutaneous injections in the back with antigen combined with Freund's complete adjuvant (FCA) on Days 1 and 7. A booster immunization was administered via multiple subcutaneous injections in the back with antigen combined with Freund's incomplete adjuvant (FIA) on Day 14. Female NOD/LtJ mice were used as the spontaneous SS model group, with ICR mice as the corresponding control strain for comparative analysis. Body weight, water intake, and salivary flow rate of mice were dynamically monitored for 4 weeks. At the end of the experiment, tissue and serum samples were collected, the weights of submaxillary glands, thymus, and spleen were measured, and organ indices (organ-to-body weight ratios) were calculated. Pathological morphological analysis of the submaxillary gland and spleen was performed with hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining. Serum interleukin-17 (IL-17) level was detected using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction was used to detect the mRNA expression levels of SS type A (SSA) and SS type B (SSB) in submaxillary gland tissues. ResultsFemale mice in the submaxillary gland antigen group exhibited significantly increased water intake (P<0.05) and reduced salivary flow rate (P<0.05) compared with the female control group. No statistically significant differences were observed in the submaxillary gland index, thymus index and spleen index (P>0.05). Focal lymphocytic infiltration was observed in the submaxillary glands, and the splenic marginal zone was enlarged. Serum IL-17 levels were significantly increased (P<0.05). There was no significant difference in submaxillary gland SSA/SSB expression levels (P>0.05). Compared with the female control group, female mice in the salivary gland antigen group showed no statistically significant differences in water intake, salivary flow rate, submaxillary gland index, and spleen index (P>0.05), whereas the thymus index was significantly reduced (P<0.01). Mild inflammatory cell infiltration and glandular atrophy were observed in the submaxillary glands, and the splenic white pulp and marginal zone were slightly enlarged. Serum IL-17 levels and submaxillary gland SSB mRNA expression levels were significantly increased (P<0.01), whereas no significant change was observed in submaxillary gland SSA expression levels (P>0.05). Compared with the male control group, mild submaxillary gland atrophy was observed in male mice in the submaxillary gland antigen group, whereas no obvious changes were found in other modeling-related indicators (P>0.05). Compared with the ICR control group, NOD/LtJ model mice exhibited elevated water intake (P<0.05), significantly reduced salivary flow rate (P<0.01), no significant differences in the submaxillary gland index or spleen index (P>0.05), but a significantly increased thymus index (P<0.05). Marked focal infiltration was observed in the submaxillary glands, the splenic marginal zone was obviously enlarged, and serum IL-17 concentrations as well as submaxillary gland SSA/SSB expression levels were significantly increased (P<0.05). ConclusionSubmaxillary gland antigen and salivary gland antigen can induce SS-related features in female C57BL/6J mice. The SS-related phenotype is more pronounced in the submaxillary gland antigen group than in the salivary gland antigen group, but weaker than that in spontaneously SS-prone female NOD/LtJ mice. Immunization of male C57BL/6J mice with submaxillary or salivary gland antigens fails to induce an obvious SS phenotype.

This paper summarizes Professor LU Fang's clinical experience in treating systemic lupus erythematosus （SLE） based on the differentiation and treatment of heat-toxin and blood-stasis in the collaterals. SLE is generally characterized by deficiency in origin with excess in manifestation. The core pathogenesis is heat-toxin obstructing the collaterals. During the acute active stage， the predominant pattern is blazing heat-toxin causing blood stasis， while in the chronic remitting stage， the main pattern is toxic stasis blocking the collaterals with qi and yin deficiency. Clinical treatment follows the basic principle that treat with salty-cold herbs， when heat invades internally and that assist with acrid-dispersing herbs when stasis obstructs the collaterals. The self-formulated Yimian Decoction （抑免汤） serves as the base formula and is applied in stages. During the acute active stage， it is often combined with herbs for clearing heat and detoxifying， cooling blood and resolving stasis， and unblocking the collaterals. In the chronic remitting stage， it is often combined with herbs for activating blood circulation and unblocking the collaterals， as well as tonifying qi and nourishing yin.