ObjectiveTo investigate the effect of Tougu Xiaotong capsules （TGXTC） on the regulation of chondrocyte PANoptosis， delay of chondrocyte degeneration， and improvement of the symptoms in knee osteoarthritis （KOA）. MethodsIn vivo experiments： 50 male C57BL/6 mice were randomly assigned into five groups （n=10 per group）： sham operation group， model group， low-dose TGXTC group （7.2 g·kg^-1）， high-dose TGXTC group （14.4 g·kg^-1）， and diclofenac sodium group （0.05 g·kg^-1）. Except for the sham group， KOA models were established in all other groups using the modified Hulth method. Following successful model induction， the TGXTC groups received daily oral gavage of 7.2 or 14.4 g·kg^-1 for 6 weeks， while the diclofenac sodium group received 0.05 g·kg^-1 solution daily over the same duration. Model evaluation was performed using Lequesne MG score； micro-computed tomography （micro-CT） was used to scan the knee， hematoxylin-eosin （HE） staining and safranin O-fast green staining were used to observe the morphology of cartilage， transmission electron microscopy （TEM） was used to determine ultrastructural changes of PANoptosis. Multiple immunofluorescence （IF） co-localization assays was performed to detect the co-localization of cleaved Caspase-3， receptor-interacting protein 3 （RlPK3）， and the N-terminal domain of gasdermin D （GSDMD-N） in cartilage tissue， while western blot was employed to detect the expression levels of cleaved Caspase-3， RIPK3， and GSDMD-N. In vitro experiments： The knee cartilages of 4-week-old SD rats were isolated， and a chondrocyte in vitro culture system was established through mechanical digestion with 0.2% type Ⅱ collagenase. Second-generation chondrocytes were divided into three groups： the control group， the model group （pretreated with 10 mg·L^-1 lipopolysaccharide （LPS） for 24 h followed by treatment with 1 μmol·L^-1 nigericin for 4 h）， and the TGXTC treatment group （pretreated with 10 mg·L^-1 LPS for 24 h， followed by exposure to 1 μmol·L^-1 nigericin for 4 h and subsequently treated with 100 mg·L^-1 TGXTC for an additional 24 h）. The levels of reactive oxygen species （ROS）， apoptosis， necroptosis， and pyroptosis of chondrocytes were evaluated via fluorescence microscopy following staining with ROS detection， AO/EB and YO-PRO-1/PI staining kits. Transmission electron microscopy was utilized to investigate the ultrastructural changes associated with PANoptosis in cartilage tissue of KOA mice. Inflammatory cytokine levels （IL-1β and IL-18） were measured using ELISA. Western blot was conducted to assess protein expressions related to PANoptosis， including cleaved Caspase-3， cleaved Caspase-8， RIPK3， ZBP1， GSDMD-N， and NLRP3. ResultsCompared with the sham group， the Lequesne MG scores were significantly up-regulated（P<0.01） in the model group， and the pathological changes of cartilage were significantly， with joint spaces narrower， osteophyte formation increased， secere abrasion of cartilage surface. Ultrastructural analysis revealed pronounced chondrocyte apoptosis， necroptosis， and pyroptosis， along with markedly elevated expression of cleaved Caspase-3， RlPK3， and GSDMD-N in cartilage tissue （P<0.01）. In addition， The mean fluorescence intensities of ROS， orange-red fluorescence in AO/EB staining， green fluorescence and red fluorescence in YO-PRO-1/PI staining were increased of chondrocyte in the model group （P<0.01） . The levels of inflammatory factors IL-1β and IL-18 in the supernatant were increased （P<0.01）. The expression of PANoptosis related proteins （cleaved Caspase-3， cleaved Caspase-8， RIPK3， ZBP1， GSDMD-N， and NLRP3） were also significantly upregulated（P<0.05）. Compared to the model group， the TGXTC group demonstrated a significant improvement in various parameters of mice. These included a reduction in the Lequesne MG score， an increase in joint space， a decrease in osteophyte formation， diminished cartilage damage， reduced release of ROS， and alleviation of apoptotic， necroptotic， and pyroptotic processes in chondrocytes. Additionally， mitochondrial swelling and endoplasmic reticulum dilation were also mitigated. The levels of ROS as well as IL-1β and IL-18 were significantly decreased （P<0.05）. Furthermore， the expression levels of proteins associated with PANoptosis in cartilage tissue showed marked reductions （P<0.05）. Similar results were observed in chondrocytes： cleaved Caspase-3， cleaved Caspase-8， RIPK3， ZBP1， GSDMD-N， and NLRP3 exhibited significant decreases as well （P<0.05）. ConclusionTGXTC may mitigate chondrocytes degeneration and alleviate KOA symptoms by reducing oxidative stress and suppressing the activation of PANoptosis pathways.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease（COPD） is a common chronic respiratory disorder frequently accompanied by diaphragmatic dysfunction during its course， which significantly increases respiratory burden and impairs quality of life. As the primary inspiratory muscle， the diaphragm is prone to fatigue， atrophy， inflammation， and fibrosis during the long-term progression of COPD. Its pathological mechanisms involve multiple pathways such as inflammatory responses， oxidative stress， mitochondrial dysfunction， apoptosis， ion channel abnormalities， epigenetic regulation， autophagy disorder， and protein metabolism imbalance. In recent years， traditional Chinese medicine（TCM） has demonstrated multi-targeted and systemic regulatory advantages in improving diaphragmatic function in COPD. However， related studies remain fragmented， and integrated mechanistic understanding is lacking. This paper focuses on the mechanism-target-TCM intervention framework， systematically summarizing the molecular mechanisms of diaphragmatic dysfunction， while incorporating the TCM theory of Zongqi（ancestral Qi）. It highlights the therapeutic effects of Chinese herbal formulas， single herbs， and active components in modulating inflammation， oxidative stress， mitochondrial function， ion channels， epigenetic processes， autophagy， and protein homeostasis. Additionally， the review outlines existing challenges， including insufficient study volume， unbalanced selection of herbal prescriptions， limited mechanistic depth， inconsistent disease models and experimental designs， lack of standardized diaphragmatic function assessment， and weak clinical validation. Future research should strengthen the integration of TCM and modern medicine， identify additional therapeutic targets， deepen mechanistic research， and establish unified and standardized experimental systems to advance the theoretical foundation and clinical application of TCM in the prevention and treatment of COPD-related diaphragmatic dysfunction.

ObjectiveTo investigate the effect of Tougu Xiaotong capsules （TGXTC） on the regulation of chondrocyte PANoptosis， delay of chondrocyte degeneration， and improvement of the symptoms in knee osteoarthritis （KOA）. MethodsIn vivo experiments： 50 male C57BL/6 mice were randomly assigned into five groups （n=10 per group）： sham operation group， model group， low-dose TGXTC group （7.2 g·kg^-1）， high-dose TGXTC group （14.4 g·kg^-1）， and diclofenac sodium group （0.05 g·kg^-1）. Except for the sham group， KOA models were established in all other groups using the modified Hulth method. Following successful model induction， the TGXTC groups received daily oral gavage of 7.2 or 14.4 g·kg^-1 for 6 weeks， while the diclofenac sodium group received 0.05 g·kg^-1 solution daily over the same duration. Model evaluation was performed using Lequesne MG score； micro-computed tomography （micro-CT） was used to scan the knee， hematoxylin-eosin （HE） staining and safranin O-fast green staining were used to observe the morphology of cartilage， transmission electron microscopy （TEM） was used to determine ultrastructural changes of PANoptosis. Multiple immunofluorescence （IF） co-localization assays was performed to detect the co-localization of cleaved Caspase-3， receptor-interacting protein 3 （RlPK3）， and the N-terminal domain of gasdermin D （GSDMD-N） in cartilage tissue， while western blot was employed to detect the expression levels of cleaved Caspase-3， RIPK3， and GSDMD-N. In vitro experiments： The knee cartilages of 4-week-old SD rats were isolated， and a chondrocyte in vitro culture system was established through mechanical digestion with 0.2% type Ⅱ collagenase. Second-generation chondrocytes were divided into three groups： the control group， the model group （pretreated with 10 mg·L^-1 lipopolysaccharide （LPS） for 24 h followed by treatment with 1 μmol·L^-1 nigericin for 4 h）， and the TGXTC treatment group （pretreated with 10 mg·L^-1 LPS for 24 h， followed by exposure to 1 μmol·L^-1 nigericin for 4 h and subsequently treated with 100 mg·L^-1 TGXTC for an additional 24 h）. The levels of reactive oxygen species （ROS）， apoptosis， necroptosis， and pyroptosis of chondrocytes were evaluated via fluorescence microscopy following staining with ROS detection， AO/EB and YO-PRO-1/PI staining kits. Transmission electron microscopy was utilized to investigate the ultrastructural changes associated with PANoptosis in cartilage tissue of KOA mice. Inflammatory cytokine levels （IL-1β and IL-18） were measured using ELISA. Western blot was conducted to assess protein expressions related to PANoptosis， including cleaved Caspase-3， cleaved Caspase-8， RIPK3， ZBP1， GSDMD-N， and NLRP3. ResultsCompared with the sham group， the Lequesne MG scores were significantly up-regulated（P<0.01） in the model group， and the pathological changes of cartilage were significantly， with joint spaces narrower， osteophyte formation increased， secere abrasion of cartilage surface. Ultrastructural analysis revealed pronounced chondrocyte apoptosis， necroptosis， and pyroptosis， along with markedly elevated expression of cleaved Caspase-3， RlPK3， and GSDMD-N in cartilage tissue （P<0.01）. In addition， The mean fluorescence intensities of ROS， orange-red fluorescence in AO/EB staining， green fluorescence and red fluorescence in YO-PRO-1/PI staining were increased of chondrocyte in the model group （P<0.01） . The levels of inflammatory factors IL-1β and IL-18 in the supernatant were increased （P<0.01）. The expression of PANoptosis related proteins （cleaved Caspase-3， cleaved Caspase-8， RIPK3， ZBP1， GSDMD-N， and NLRP3） were also significantly upregulated（P<0.05）. Compared to the model group， the TGXTC group demonstrated a significant improvement in various parameters of mice. These included a reduction in the Lequesne MG score， an increase in joint space， a decrease in osteophyte formation， diminished cartilage damage， reduced release of ROS， and alleviation of apoptotic， necroptotic， and pyroptotic processes in chondrocytes. Additionally， mitochondrial swelling and endoplasmic reticulum dilation were also mitigated. The levels of ROS as well as IL-1β and IL-18 were significantly decreased （P<0.05）. Furthermore， the expression levels of proteins associated with PANoptosis in cartilage tissue showed marked reductions （P<0.05）. Similar results were observed in chondrocytes： cleaved Caspase-3， cleaved Caspase-8， RIPK3， ZBP1， GSDMD-N， and NLRP3 exhibited significant decreases as well （P<0.05）. ConclusionTGXTC may mitigate chondrocytes degeneration and alleviate KOA symptoms by reducing oxidative stress and suppressing the activation of PANoptosis pathways.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease（COPD） is a common chronic respiratory disorder frequently accompanied by diaphragmatic dysfunction during its course， which significantly increases respiratory burden and impairs quality of life. As the primary inspiratory muscle， the diaphragm is prone to fatigue， atrophy， inflammation， and fibrosis during the long-term progression of COPD. Its pathological mechanisms involve multiple pathways such as inflammatory responses， oxidative stress， mitochondrial dysfunction， apoptosis， ion channel abnormalities， epigenetic regulation， autophagy disorder， and protein metabolism imbalance. In recent years， traditional Chinese medicine（TCM） has demonstrated multi-targeted and systemic regulatory advantages in improving diaphragmatic function in COPD. However， related studies remain fragmented， and integrated mechanistic understanding is lacking. This paper focuses on the mechanism-target-TCM intervention framework， systematically summarizing the molecular mechanisms of diaphragmatic dysfunction， while incorporating the TCM theory of Zongqi（ancestral Qi）. It highlights the therapeutic effects of Chinese herbal formulas， single herbs， and active components in modulating inflammation， oxidative stress， mitochondrial function， ion channels， epigenetic processes， autophagy， and protein homeostasis. Additionally， the review outlines existing challenges， including insufficient study volume， unbalanced selection of herbal prescriptions， limited mechanistic depth， inconsistent disease models and experimental designs， lack of standardized diaphragmatic function assessment， and weak clinical validation. Future research should strengthen the integration of TCM and modern medicine， identify additional therapeutic targets， deepen mechanistic research， and establish unified and standardized experimental systems to advance the theoretical foundation and clinical application of TCM in the prevention and treatment of COPD-related diaphragmatic dysfunction.

ObjectiveTo address the limitations of the current quality standard for Polygalae Radix（PR）， which relies on a single component for quality assessment and struggles to holistically control its intrinsic quality， by constructing a comprehensive quality evaluation system integrating "macro-characterization of chemical profile， synchronous quantification of multiple index components， and quantitative analysis of multi-components by single marker（QAMS） for key component groups". This study aims to facilitate the scientific revision of the quality standard for PR. MethodsHigh performance liquid chromatography（HPLC） characteristic chromatograms were established for 11 batches of PR medicinal materials（YZ）， 10 batches of PR decoction pieces（YP）， and 10 batches of licorice-processed PR decoction pieces（ZYZ）， followed by similarity evaluation and identification of common peaks. HPLC-QAMS was developed for xanthones（sibiricaxanthone B， polygalaxanthone Ⅺ， polygalaxanthone Ⅲ） in the characteristic chromatograms. Simultaneously， the external standard method（ESM） was used to determine the contents of the corresponding xanthones and 3，6'-disinapoyl sucrose in YZ， YP， and ZYZ， followed by multivariate statistical analysis and Spearman correlation analysis. ResultsThe similarity between the characteristic chromatograms of 31 batches of PR samples and the reference chromatogram was>0.9. A total of 13 common peaks were identified， and 10 of these peaks were characterized through reference standard comparison. The successfully constructed QAMS method showed that the relative correction factors（RCFs） of sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ to polygalaxanthone Ⅲ were 0.76 and 0.88， and their relative retention times（RRTs） were 0.85 and 0.97， respectively. The results calculated by the QAMS method showed no significant difference from those obtained by the ESM. According to the limit standard for polygalaxanthone Ⅲ in the 2020 edition of the Pharmacopoeia of the People's Republic of China（hereinafter referred to as the Chinese Pharmacopoeia）， the pass rate of 31 batches of samples was only 19.35%. Multivariate statistical analysis indicated certain compositional differences between different batches of YZ and YP， as well as between YP and ZYZ， with 3，6'-disinapoyl sucrose identified as the main differentiating component. Furthermore， correlation analysis revealed that the content of polygalaxanthone Ⅲ was positively correlated with the contents of sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ， but showed no association with the content of 3，6'-disinapoyl sucrose. ConclusionIt is recommended that the content limit for polygalaxanthone Ⅲ in YZ，YP and ZYZ be revised to not less than 0.07%， or the total content of polygalaxanthone Ⅲ， sibiricaxanthone B and polygalaxanthone Ⅺ be not less than 0.18%. The newly established triple quality control model of "holistic control via characteristic chromatograms， precise quantification of oligosaccharide esters， and efficient detection of xanthones by QAMS" provides a systematic and precise solution for quality evaluation of PR and similar Chinese herbal medicines.

ObjectiveThis study systematically analyzed the arginine metabolic dysregulation in the rat model of heart failure （HF）， providing a modern scientific basis for elucidating the pathogenesis of HF and offering new insights for the prevention and treatment of HF with traditional Chinese medicine （TCM）. MethodsA thoracotomy was performed to ligate the left anterior descending coronary artery of rats， which induced acute myocardial ischemia and thus led to the development of post-myocardial infarction heart failure. The rats were divided into a sham surgery group and a model group， with eight rats in each group. Serum targeted metabolomics analysis was performed using ultra-performance liquid chromatography-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry （UPLC-TQ-S）， and the spatial distribution of metabolites in cardiac tissue was observed using airflow-assisted desorption electrospray ionizationmass spectrometry imaging （AFADESI-MSI）. Targets associated with HF and arginine metabolism were screened from databases including GeneCards and the Gene Expression Omnibus （GEO）， a protein-protein interaction （PPI） network was constructed， and enrichment analysis of the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes （KEGG） pathway and Gene Ontology （GO） was performed. Finally， molecular docking was conducted to verify the binding between core metabolic components and key targets， and potential TCMs were predicted based on the core pathways and targets. ResultsCompared with the sham surgery group， the levels of arginine and citrulline in the serum of model rats were significantly decreased （P<0.01）， while those of proline， ornithine， creatine， creatinine and glutamate were significantly increased （P<0.05， P<0.01）. Cardiac mass spectrometry imaging showed a decreased abundance of arginine in the local myocardial tissue. Bioinformatics analysis identified 24 core functional targets， such as the angiotensin-converting enzyme （ACE）， neuronal nitric oxide synthase （NOS1）， 5-hydroxytryptamine receptor 2A （HTR2A）， and epidermal growth factor receptor （EGFR）， and enrichment analysis indicated that these targets were significantly involved in the calcium signaling pathway， neuroactive ligand-receptor interactions， and phosphatidylinositol signaling pathway. Molecular docking confirmed strong binding activities between arginine， citrulline and HTR2A， as well as between creatine， creatinine and EGFR. Based on pathway-target prediction， potential TCM interventions， such as ginseng and magnolia， were identified. ConclusionThis study revealed characteristic arginine metabolic disorder in HF， and the core targets of HF were closely associated with the phosphatidylinositol signaling pathway. It provides a modern biological interpretation of the pathogenesis of HF in TCM from the perspectives of metabolites and signaling pathways， and offers valuable insights for targeted therapy of HF and the development of TCM.

ObjectiveThis study systematically analyzed the arginine metabolic dysregulation in the rat model of heart failure （HF）， providing a modern scientific basis for elucidating the pathogenesis of HF and offering new insights for the prevention and treatment of HF with traditional Chinese medicine （TCM）. MethodsA thoracotomy was performed to ligate the left anterior descending coronary artery of rats， which induced acute myocardial ischemia and thus led to the development of post-myocardial infarction heart failure. The rats were divided into a sham surgery group and a model group， with eight rats in each group. Serum targeted metabolomics analysis was performed using ultra-performance liquid chromatography-triple quadrupole mass spectrometry （UPLC-TQ-S）， and the spatial distribution of metabolites in cardiac tissue was observed using airflow-assisted desorption electrospray ionizationmass spectrometry imaging （AFADESI-MSI）. Targets associated with HF and arginine metabolism were screened from databases including GeneCards and the Gene Expression Omnibus （GEO）， a protein-protein interaction （PPI） network was constructed， and enrichment analysis of the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes （KEGG） pathway and Gene Ontology （GO） was performed. Finally， molecular docking was conducted to verify the binding between core metabolic components and key targets， and potential TCMs were predicted based on the core pathways and targets. ResultsCompared with the sham surgery group， the levels of arginine and citrulline in the serum of model rats were significantly decreased （P<0.01）， while those of proline， ornithine， creatine， creatinine and glutamate were significantly increased （P<0.05， P<0.01）. Cardiac mass spectrometry imaging showed a decreased abundance of arginine in the local myocardial tissue. Bioinformatics analysis identified 24 core functional targets， such as the angiotensin-converting enzyme （ACE）， neuronal nitric oxide synthase （NOS1）， 5-hydroxytryptamine receptor 2A （HTR2A）， and epidermal growth factor receptor （EGFR）， and enrichment analysis indicated that these targets were significantly involved in the calcium signaling pathway， neuroactive ligand-receptor interactions， and phosphatidylinositol signaling pathway. Molecular docking confirmed strong binding activities between arginine， citrulline and HTR2A， as well as between creatine， creatinine and EGFR. Based on pathway-target prediction， potential TCM interventions， such as ginseng and magnolia， were identified. ConclusionThis study revealed characteristic arginine metabolic disorder in HF， and the core targets of HF were closely associated with the phosphatidylinositol signaling pathway. It provides a modern biological interpretation of the pathogenesis of HF in TCM from the perspectives of metabolites and signaling pathways， and offers valuable insights for targeted therapy of HF and the development of TCM.

Objective To explore a method for rapid and differential diagnosis of rejection after kidney transplantation through urine hyperspectral imaging technology. Methods Hyperspectral data information from urine samples of 118 recipients after kidney transplantation was collected, and a deep learning model was constructed to diagnose and classify the types of rejection. Results A deep learning diagnostic model based on the 34-layer residual network (ResNet-34) was constructed, and 118 patients were included and divided into the training set and the test set. Based on the pathological results of the transplanted kidney puncture, the urine samples of the patients were classified into five groups: the non-rejection group, the T-cell-mediated rejection group, the antibody-mediated rejection group, the mixed rejection group and the nephropathy recurrence group. The results showed that the diagnostic sensitivities of the model for the above five groups were 0.960, 0.980, 0.930, 0.940 and 0.943 respectively, and the diagnostic specificities were 0.983, 0.993, 0.997, 0.989 and 0.989 respectively. The overall diagnostic accuracy rate reached 95.7%. Conclusions The study provides a non-invasive, rapid and accurate auxiliary diagnostic method for the differential diagnosis of rejection after kidney transplantation.

Objective: To investigate the efficacy of magnesium-strontium co-doped hydroxyapatite mineralized collagen (MSHA/Col) in improving the bone repair microenvironment and enhancing bone regeneration capacity, providing a strategy to address the insufficient biomimetic composition and limited bioactivity of traditional hydroxyapatite mineralized collagen (HA/Col) scaffolds. Methods: A high-molecular-weight polyacrylic acid-stabilized amorphous calcium magnesium strontium phosphate precursor (HPAA/ACMSP) was prepared. Its morphology and elemental distribution were characterized by high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and energy-dispersive spectroscopy. Recombinant collagen sponge blocks were immersed in the HPAA/ACMSP mineralization solution. Magnesium-strontium co-doped hydroxyapatite was induced to deposit within collagen fibers (experimental group: MSHA/Col; control group: HA/Col). The morphological characteristics of MSHA/Col were observed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Its crystal structure and chemical composition were analyzed by X-ray diffraction and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, respectively. The mineral phase content was evaluated by thermogravimetric analysis. The scaffold's porosity, ion release, and in vitro degradation performance were also determined. For cytological experiments, CCK-8 assay, live/dead cell staining, alkaline phosphatase staining, alizarin red S staining, RT-qPCR, and western blotting were used to evaluate the effects of the MSHA/Col scaffold on the proliferation, viability, early osteogenic differentiation activity, late mineralization capacity, and gene and protein expression levels of key osteogenic markers [runt-related transcription factor 2 (Runx2), collagen type Ⅰ (Col-Ⅰ), osteopontin (Opn), and osteocalcin (Ocn)] in mouse embryonic osteoblast precursor cells (MC3T3-E1). Results: HPAA/ACMSP appeared as amorphous spherical nanoparticles under TEM, with energy spectrum analysis showing uniform distribution of carbon, oxygen, calcium, phosphorus, magnesium, and strontium elements. SEM results of MSHA/Col indicated successful complete intrafibrillar mineralization. Elemental analysis showed the mass fractions of magnesium and strontium were 0.72% (matching the magnesium content in natural bone) and 2.89%, respectively. X-ray diffraction revealed characteristic peaks of hydroxyapatite crystals (25.86°, 31°-34°). Infrared spectroscopy results showed characteristic absorption peaks for both collagen and hydroxyapatite. Thermogravimetric analysis indicated a mineral phase content of 78.29% in the material. The scaffold porosity was 91.6% ± 1.1%, close to the level of natural bone tissue. Ion release curves demonstrated sustained release behavior for both magnesium and strontium ions. The in vitro degradation rate matched the ingrowth rate of new bone tissue. Cytological experiments showed that MSHA/Col significantly promoted MC3T3-E1 cell proliferation (130% increase in activity at 72 h, P < 0.001). MSHA/Col exhibited excellent efficacy in promoting osteogenic differentiation, significantly upregulating the expression of osteogenesis-related genes and proteins (Runx2, Col-Ⅰ, Opn, Ocn) (P < 0.01). Conclusion The MSHA/Col scaffold achieves dual biomimicry of natural bone in both composition and structure, and effectively promotes osteogenic differentiation at the genetic and protein levels, breaking through the functional limitations of pure hydroxyapatite mineralized collagen. This provides a new strategy for the development of functional bone repair materials

OBJECTIVES: To develop an early atrial fibrillation (AF) risk prediction model based on large-scale electrocardiogram (ECG) data from the Chinese population. METHODS: The data of multiple ECG records of 30 383 patients admitted in the Chinese PLA General Hospital between 2009 and 2023 were randomly divided into the training set and the internal testing set in a 7:3 ratio. The predictive factors were selected based on the training set using univariate analysis, LASSO regression, and the Boruta algorithm. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to establish the ECG model and the composite model incorporating age, gender, and ECG model score. The discrimination power, calibration, and clinical net benefits of the models were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curves, and decision curves. RESULTS: The cohort included 51.1% male patients with a median age of the patients of 51 (36, 62) years and an AF incidence of 4.5% (1370/30 383). In the ECG model, the parameters related to the P wave and QRS complex were identified as significant predictors. In the testing set, the AUROC of the ECG model for predicting 5-year AF risk was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.74-0.80), which was increased to 0.81 (95% CI: 0.78-0.83) after incorporating age and gender, with a net reclassification improvement of 0.123 and an integrated discrimination improvement of 0.04 (P<0.05). The calibration curve of the model was close to the diagonal line. Decision curve analysis showed that the clinical net benefit of the composite model was higher than that of the ECG model across the majority of threshold probability. CONCLUSIONS The composite model incorporating quantitative ECG features during sinus rhythm, along with age and gender, can effectively predict AF risk in the Chinese population, thus providing a low-cost screening tool for early AF risk assessment and management.
Humans ; Atrial Fibrillation/epidemiology* ; Electrocardiography ; Middle Aged ; Male ; Female ; China/epidemiology* ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Adult ; Risk Factors ; Risk Assessment ; East Asian People