1.Global burden and predicted trends of diarrheal disease in children under five from 1990 to 2021.
Ying DENG ; Minyi ZHANG ; Shiao WANG ; Shunchang FAN ; Jiaqi CHEN ; Juxian XIAN ; Qing CHEN
Journal of Southern Medical University 2025;45(10):2171-2181
OBJECTIVES:
To conduct a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of diarrheal diseases in children under 5 years.
METHODS:
The data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 were analyzed to assess the incidence, mortality rates and average annual percentage changes (AAPC) of diarrhea among children under 5 years across nations(regions) and GBD regions from 1990 to 2021 using joinpoint regression. Smoothed curve regression was employed to explore the correlation of diarrheal disease burden with the Social Development Index (SDI) and for analyzing the burden of specific diarrheal pathogens. The Slope and Concentration Indices quantified disparities across SDI levels and the future trend were projected by the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model.
RESULTS:
From 1990 to 2021, the global incidence (AAPC: -3.65) and mortality (AAPC: -5.15) rates of diarrheal diseases declined steadily in children below 5 years. In 2021, neonates (<28 days) were the most affected, with an incidence rate of 138 058.74 per 100 000 and a mortality rate of 251.14 per 100 000. Rotavirus was the leading cause of death. The incidence rate of diarrheal diseases was negatively correlated with SDI, and the Concentration Index decreased from -0.293 in 1990 to -0.314 in 2021 without a significant gender difference. The BAPC model suggested that the global incidence rate of diarrheal diseases tends to decrease progressively from 2022 to 2050, with a predicted rate of 23 448.04 per 100 000 for male and 29 932.59 per 100 000 for female by 2050.
CONCLUSIONS
Despite the reduction in the global burden of diarrhea and the projection of its further decline, diarrheal diseases disproportionately affect neonates and low-SDI regions. While rotavirus remains the primary etiological agent worldwide, the predominant pathogens vary by nations (regions) and GBD regions, and strengthened interventions targeting vulnerable populations are needed.
Humans
;
Child, Preschool
;
Diarrhea/mortality*
;
Infant
;
Incidence
;
Infant, Newborn
;
Global Burden of Disease/trends*
;
Global Health
;
Male
;
Bayes Theorem
;
Female
2.Premature mortality projection for diabetes to 2030: a subnational evaluation towards the Healthy China 2030 Goals.
Hongrui ZHAO ; Zhenping ZHAO ; Xuan YANG ; Yuchang ZHOU ; Ainan JIA ; Jiangmei LIU ; Peng YIN ; Yamin BAI ; Zhenxing YANG ; Maigeng ZHOU ; Xiujuan ZHANG
Frontiers of Medicine 2025;19(4):626-635
The Healthy China 2030 Plan set the goal of reducing premature deaths from diabetes by 30% by 2030. However, there has been a lack of assessment of premature mortality for diabetes since the action plan was issued. This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, calculated the premature deaths for diabetes by sex, provinces, and subtypes from 1990 to 2021. We explored the temporal trend of premature mortality using the average annual percent change (AAPC) for different sexes, provinces, and subtypes from 1990 to 2021. Furthermore, we predicted premature mortality for diabetes through 2030 for China and its provinces according to the average annual change rate from 2010 to 2021. There was a first slow upward trend in premature mortality for diabetes from 0.5% in 1990 to 0.6% in 2004, and then a decline until 2021 with premature mortality of 0.4%. By 2030, only Fujian (30.3%) will achieve the desired level of reduction, with only seven provinces meeting the target for females and none for males. There is a large range in the degree of decline between inland and coastal regions, showing obvious geographic differences, and there should be a focus on balancing medical resources.
Humans
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Female
;
Male
;
Mortality, Premature/trends*
;
Diabetes Mellitus/mortality*
;
Goals
;
Middle Aged
;
Adult
3.Global, regional and national burden and trends of congenital musculoskeletal and limb deformities among under-5 children from 1990 to 2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Qinglin YANG ; Zhuanmei JIN ; Yongping WANG
Frontiers of Medicine 2025;19(5):807-819
Congenital musculoskeletal and limb deformities (CMLD) seriously affect the physical and mental health of patients, and pose great challenges to healthcare systems worldwide. We explored the specific situation and changes of incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years rates, and mortality of CMLD in under-5 children from 1990 to 2021 in different groups, including different regions, periods, genders and socio-demographic indices (SDI), through corresponding analytical models. Overall, the global disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children has decreased from 1990 to 2021. The disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children varied significantly among different regions and countries, and there was a strong correlation between the corresponding burden of disease and the level of SDI. In addition, cross-country inequality analysis showed that while absolute inequalities in the disease burden of CMLD in under-5 children have improved, relative inequalities have worsened. It is essential to reduce the global health impact of CMLD by implementing targeted interventions to improve health care in underdeveloped areas.
Humans
;
Global Burden of Disease/trends*
;
Child, Preschool
;
Global Health/statistics & numerical data*
;
Infant
;
Male
;
Prevalence
;
Limb Deformities, Congenital/mortality*
;
Musculoskeletal Abnormalities/mortality*
;
Female
;
Disability-Adjusted Life Years
;
Incidence
;
Infant, Newborn
;
Cost of Illness
;
Socioeconomic Factors
4.The Disease Burden of Asthma in China, 1990 to 2021 and Projections to 2050: Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2021.
Rui Yi ZHANG ; Miao Miao ZHANG ; Yu Chang ZHOU ; Jia Huan GUO ; Xuan Kai WANG ; Mai Geng ZHOU
Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2025;38(5):529-538
OBJECTIVE:
Asthma imposes a significant global health burden. This study examines changes in the asthma-related disease burden from 1990 to 2021 and projects future burdens for 2050 under different scenarios.
METHODS:
Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, we analyzed asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021. We projected the disease burden for 2050 based on current trends and hypothetical scenarios in which all risk factors are controlled. Temporal trends in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY rates were explored using Annual Percent Change.
RESULTS:
In 2021, the age-standardized rates for asthma incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs in China were 364.17 per 100,000 (95% uncertainty interval [ UI]: 283.22-494.10), 1,956.49 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1,566.68-2,491.87), 1.47 per 100,000 (95% UI: 1.15-1.79), and 103.76 per 100,000 (95% UI: 72.50-145.46), respectively. A higher disease burden was observed among Chinese men and individuals aged 70 years or older. Compared to the current trend, a combined scenario involving improvements in environmental factors, behavioral and metabolic health, child nutrition, and vaccination resulted in a greater reduction in the disease burden caused by asthma.
CONCLUSION
Addressing modifiable risk factors is essential for further reducing the asthma-related disease burden.
Humans
;
Asthma/mortality*
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Adult
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
Child
;
Adolescent
;
Global Burden of Disease/trends*
;
Child, Preschool
;
Young Adult
;
Infant
;
Cost of Illness
;
Disability-Adjusted Life Years
;
Prevalence
;
Incidence
;
Infant, Newborn
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Risk Factors
5.Mesoscale simulation and AI optimization of bioprocesses.
Zhihui WANG ; Cong WANG ; Qinghua ZHANG ; Jianye XIA ; Wei CONG ; Chao YANG
Chinese Journal of Biotechnology 2025;41(3):1197-1218
As green, sustainable, and environmentally friendly material processing processes using biological cells or enzymes to achieve substance conversion, bioprocesses play an increasingly important role in biomanufacturing. It is difficult to optimize bioprocesses because of the complex relationship at multiple levels and multiple scales. The knowledge of mesoscale behaviors is the key to understanding the dynamics of bioprocesses and to sort out the complex relationships of parameter variations in the spatial-temporal domain. Mesoscale numerical simulation paves a way for understanding these phenomena, and the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and mesoscale simulation offers new vitality into the optimization of bioprocesses. This article reviews the progress in mesoscale simulation and AI optimization of bioprocesses and discusses the possible development directions, aiming to promote the development of this field.
Artificial Intelligence
;
Biotechnology/trends*
;
Computer Simulation
6.Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 30-day readmission metric: Risk adjustment for multimorbidity and frailty.
Anthony YII ; Isaac FONG ; Sean Chee Hong LOH ; Jansen Meng-Kwang KOH ; Augustine TEE
Annals of the Academy of Medicine, Singapore 2025;54(7):419-427
INTRODUCTION:
The 30-day readmission rate for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common performance metric but may be confounded by factors unrelated to quality of care. Our aim was to assess how sociodemographic factors, multimorbidity and frailty impact 30-day readmission risk after COPD hospitalisation, and whether risk adjustment alters interpretation of temporal trends.
METHOD:
This is a retrospective analysis of administra-tive data from October 2017 to June 2023 from Changi General Hospital, Singapore. Multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to estimate unadjusted and risk-adjusted 30-day readmission odds. Covariates included age, sex, race, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) and year. Temporal trends in readmission risk were compared across unadjusted and adjusted models.
RESULTS:
Of the 2774 admissions, 749 (27%) resulted in 30-day readmissions. Higher CCI (CCI≥4 versus [vs] CCI=1: adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.00, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-2.99, P=0.003; CCI 2-3 vs CCI=1: aOR 1.50, 95% CI 1.15-1.96, P=0.001) and higher HFRS (≥5 vs <5: aOR 1.29, 95% CI 1.01-1.65, P=0.04) were independently associated with increased readmission risk. While unadjusted analyses showed no significant temporal trends, the risk-adjusted model revealed a 32-35% reduction in readmission odds in 2021-2023 compared to baseline.
CONCLUSION
Multimorbidity and frailty significantly impact COPD readmissions. Risk adjustment revealed improvements in readmission risk not evident in unadjusted analyses, emphasising the importance of applying risk adjustments to ensure valid performance metrics.
Humans
;
Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/therapy*
;
Patient Readmission/trends*
;
Male
;
Female
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Aged
;
Singapore/epidemiology*
;
Multimorbidity
;
Frailty/epidemiology*
;
Middle Aged
;
Risk Adjustment
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Logistic Models
;
Risk Factors
7.Needs for rehabilitation in China: Estimates based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2019.
Tian TIAN ; Lin ZHU ; Qingzhen FU ; Shiheng TAN ; Yukun CAO ; Ding ZHANG ; Mingxue WANG ; Ting ZHENG ; Lijing GAO ; Daria VOLONTOVICH ; Yongchen WANG ; Jinming ZHANG ; Zhimei JIANG ; Hongbin QIU ; Fan WANG ; Yashuang ZHAO
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(1):49-59
BACKGROUND:
As an essential part of health services, rehabilitation is of great significance to improve the health and quality of life of the whole population. Accelerating aging calls for a significant expansion of rehabilitation services in China, but rehabilitation needs remain unclear. We conducted the study to explore the rehabilitation needs in China and project the trend of rehabilitation needs from 2020 to 2034.
METHODS:
The data of health conditions that might potentially benefit from rehabilitation were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the trends of the age-standardized rates. Projections of rehabilitation needs were made until 2034 using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC).
RESULTS:
Approximately 460 million persons (33.3% of the total population) need rehabilitation in China, contributing to 63 million years lived with disabilities (YLDs) in 2019. The number of prevalent cases that need rehabilitation increased from around 268 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257-282) million in 1990 to almost 460 (95% UI: 443-479) million in 2019, representing an increase of 71.3%. The highest contribution to the need for rehabilitation was musculoskeletal disorders with about 322 (95% UI: 302-343) million persons in seven aggregate disease and injury categories, and hearing loss with over 95 (95% UI: 84-107) million people among 25 health conditions. Based on the projection results, there will be almost 636 million people (45% of the total population) needing rehabilitation services in China by 2034, representing an increase of 38.3%. The rehabilitation needs of neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, and neurological disorders are expected to increase significantly from 2019 to 2034, with increases of 102.3%, 88.8% and 73.2%, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
The need for rehabilitation in China substantially increased over the last 30 years. It is predicted that over two in five people will require rehabilitation by 2034, thus suggesting the need to develop rehabilitation services that meet individuals' rehabilitation needs.
Humans
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Global Burden of Disease
;
Female
;
Male
;
Musculoskeletal Diseases/epidemiology*
;
Rehabilitation/trends*
;
Quality of Life
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
Bayes Theorem
8.Progress of pediatric liver transplantation: In Japan and beyond.
Mureo KASAHARA ; Seisuke SAKAMOTO
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(8):894-904
Organ transplantation, particularly pediatric liver transplantation (LT), has transformed medical practice over the past six decades, providing life-saving interventions for children with end-stage liver disease. This review demonstrated the historical milestones of pediatric organ transplantation, emphasizing Japan's contributions, mainly through the National Center for Child Health and Development. While early transplantation efforts in the 1950s and 1960s faced significant challenges, breakthroughs in preservation methods, immunosuppressive therapies, surgical techniques, and innovations such as living donor LT in Asia have greatly improved success rates. Japan's pediatric LT landscape is distinct, primarily due to its reliance on living donor LT, shaped by cultural and religious influences that have traditionally restricted deceased donor organ donation. This review manuscript discusses Japan's pioneering role in expanding the indications for pediatric LT to include rare conditions such as inherited metabolic disorders and hepatoblastoma. It highlights recent innovations such as hyper-reduced lateral segment grafts, machine perfusion, and minimally invasive surgery that have further improved outcomes. International collaboration has facilitated the sharing of expertise, advancing pediatric liver transplantation practice worldwide. Despite these achievements, challenges remain, particularly in light of Japan's declining birth rate, which threatens the sustainability of pediatric transplant services. This review emphasizes the need for centralized transplant facilities, greater awareness of brain-dead organ donation, and continued medical advances to ensure that pediatric LT remains a viable, life-saving option for future generations.
Humans
;
Liver Transplantation/trends*
;
Japan
;
Child
;
Living Donors
9.Traditional Chinese medicine dry powder inhalers: research status and development ideas and methods.
Yu-Wen MA ; Yi-Chen ZENG ; Hao-Ran WANG ; Guang-Fu LIU ; Jun JIANG ; Yu-Song ZENG ; Bai-Xiu ZHAO ; Jin FANG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(3):620-631
As an innovative dosage form, traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) dry powder inhalers have emerged as a focal point in the research and development of new preparations due to its high efficiency, safety, and bioavailability. This paper systematically reviewed the relevant literature and patents associated with TCM dry powder inhalers to analyze the origins and the current research and development status. Furthermore, this paper probed into the research and development ideas of TCM dry powder inhalers regarding clinical positioning, prescription screening, and druggability. Additionally, the paper thoroughly analyzed the technical barriers in druggability studies and elaborated on corresponding research techniques and coping measures. Furthermore, it emphasized the need for improved regulations and policies governing TCM dry powder inhalers, advocated for strengthened oversight, and called for the establishment of a scientific quality evaluation system. Measures such as promoting production-education-research collaboration, enhancing personnel training, and fostering international exchanges were proposed to provide a scientific and systematic reference for the future research, development, and application of TCM dry powder inhalers, thereby facilitating the rapid modernization of TCM.
Humans
;
Dry Powder Inhalers/trends*
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/chemistry*
;
Medicine, Chinese Traditional/instrumentation*
;
Administration, Inhalation
10.Frontier technologies and development trends of network pharmacology: a patent bibliometric analysis.
Li TAO ; Zhi-Peng KE ; Tuan-Jie WANG ; Zhen-Zhong WANG ; Liang CAO ; Wei XIAO
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(11):3070-3078
This study systematically analyzed the global research landscape, technological composition, and core patents in the field of networks target and network pharmacology, and proposes further suggestions based on the IncoPat patent citation database and VOSviewer bibliometric network visualization tool. Using patent literature metrics and scientific knowledge mapping method, technological innovation pathways, research hotspots, and future directions in this field were further revealed. In particular, this field is moving towards data-driven, intelligent, and systematic approaches. Patent analysis indicated that most patent applications in this domain focused on traditional Chinese medicine(TCM), which have provided key engineering technical approaches to explore and solve complex problems of TCM. By integrating big data and artificial intelligence technologies, network targets and network pharmacology have conferred high-precision screening and quality control of key components and targets in herbal formulations and prescriptions, accelerating the clinical translation and industrialization of TCM-based new drugs and health products with medicine-food homology. Therefore, it is essential to optimize the patent protection system and establish integrated technology platforms in this field for ensuring the competitiveness of technological achievements in research and clinical application. These efforts will advance the widespread application and high-quality development of TCM modernization, precision medicine, and innovative drug discovery.
Bibliometrics
;
Patents as Topic
;
Humans
;
Medicine, Chinese Traditional
;
Network Pharmacology/trends*
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/pharmacology*

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