1.Development of a Diagnostic Scale for Qi-Yin Deficiency with Blood Stasis Syndrome in Diabetic Macrovascular Disease
Qingzhi LIANG ; Ting LUO ; Yi SU ; Xiaoqin LIU ; Hong GAO ; Hongyan XIE ; Chunguang XIE
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(11):225-234
ObjectiveTo construct a standardized diagnostic scale for Qi-Yin deficiency with blood stasis syndrome in diabetic macrovascular disease. MethodsLiterature related to Qi-Yin deficiency with blood stasis syndrome in diabetic macrovascular disease was retrieved from CNKI, VIP, and Wanfang databases. Diagnostic information from four diagnostic methods was extracted and standardized, with items having a frequency of ≥15 included in the item pool. A three-round Delphi expert consultation was conducted, screening items using support degree, mean score, rank sum, and coefficient of variation. Item weights were determined using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), gactor analysis (FA), and combined weighting method (CWM). The optimal weighting method was selected by comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). The Youden index was calculated to establish the diagnostic cutoff value, which was proportionally scaled. ResultsA total of 102 studies were included. Thirty-five items were incorporated into the item pool. The authority coefficients for the three Delphi rounds were 0.82, 0.85, and 0.86, with coordination coefficients of 0.648, 0.538, and 0.506, respectively. Fifteen items were retained after screening. ROC curve analysis showed the AUC ranking as FA > CWM > AHP. The maximum Youden index was 0.814, corresponding to a diagnostic cutoff of 8.361 (scaled to 40 points). The final scale adopted a structured diagnostic framework: the symptom dimension requires at least 2 items, and the tongue or pulse dimension requires at least 1 category. ConclusionThis study developed a standardized diagnostic scale for Qi-Yin deficiency with blood stasis syndrome in diabetic macrovascular disease. Core items were screened via the Delphi method, with factor analysis identified as the optimal weighting method through AUC comparison. The diagnostic threshold (40 points) and structured diagnostic framework provide a quantitatively clear, clinically practical tool.
2.Establishment and Evaluation of Diabetic Macrovascular Atherosclerosis Model with Qi and Yin Deficiency Syndrome
Ting LUO ; Qingzhi LIANG ; Xi PENG ; Yi SU ; Hongyan XIE ; Chunguang XIE
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(13):86-98
ObjectiveTo explore the establishment of a rat model of diabetic macrovascular atherosclerosis (DMA) with Qi and Yin deficiency syndrome induced by high-fat diet, streptozotocin (STZ), and Yin-depleting herbs, and to evaluate its biological characteristics. MethodsForty SD rats were randomly divided into a blank group (n=10) and a modeling group (n=30). Except for the blank group, rats in the model group were fed a high-fat diet for 4 weeks, followed by intraperitoneal injection of STZ (30 mg·kg-1) to establish a diabetic model. Twenty-four successfully modeled diabetic rats were randomly divided into a model group (n=7), a Qi and Yin deficiency syndrome group (n=8), and a counter-syndrome group (n=9). Except for the model group, rats received intragastric administration of Yin-depleting herbs (1.2 g·kg-1) for 8 weeks. The counter-syndrome group was further treated with Shenqi compound formula (1.69 g·kg-1) for an additional 8 weeks. General condition and body weight were recorded, and syndrome-related indicators were assessed, including precordial temperature, skin moisture content, grip strength, open-field test performance, and tongue appearance. Serum levels of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), endothelin-1 (ET-1), vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1), insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), and monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1) were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Fasting blood glucose, blood lipids, hemorheological parameters, and coagulation function were analyzed using an automatic biochemical analyzer. Vascular ultrasound and hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining were used to evaluate vascular lesions. ResultsIn terms of syndrome manifestations, compared with the blank group, body weight increased rapidly during the first 5 weeks in the model, Qi and Yin deficiency, and counter-syndrome groups. After STZ injection combined with Yin-depleting herbal administration at week 5, body weight decreased significantly (P<0.01) and continued to decline until the end of the experiment. Rats exhibited decreased activity, irritability, coarse and yellowish fur with obvious shedding, polydipsia, polyphagia, frequent urination, and dry stools, which were most pronounced in the Qi and Yin deficiency group. Grip strength decreased, peak activity time occurred earlier, total distance in the open-field test was reduced, and residence time was prolonged. Precordial temperature decreased (P<0.01), while paw temperature increased (P<0.05), and skin moisture and oil content were reduced (P<0.05, P<0.01). In terms of disease-related indicators, compared with the blank group, fasting blood glucose was significantly increased (>16.7 mmol·L-1) in the model and Qi and Yin deficiency groups, and blood lipid levels were significantly elevated (P<0.05). Vascular-related factors ET-1, MCP-1, VCAM-1, and VEGF were significantly increased (P<0.05,P<0.01), while IGF-1 was significantly decreased (P<0.01). Pathological examination of the aortic valve showed valvular thickening and structural disorganization. Carotid artery examination revealed discontinuity of the intima, foam cell accumulation beneath the intima, disordered smooth muscle arrangement, and widened intercellular spaces. Compared with the model group, ET-1, MCP-1, and VEGF levels were significantly decreased in both the Qi and Yin deficiency group and the counter-syndrome group. The reductions in ET-1 and MCP-1 were more pronounced in the Qi and Yin deficiency group (P<0.01), while the decrease in VCAM-1 was more significant in the counter-syndrome group (P<0.05). Compared with the blank group, the Qi and Yin deficiency group showed significantly prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), thrombin time (TT), and prothrombin time (PT) (P<0.01). The erythrocyte deformability index (TK), erythrocyte sedimentation rate, erythrocyte electrophoresis index, and whole blood low-shear viscosity all showed increasing trends. Vascular ultrasound revealed reduced arterial blood flow velocity, increased vascular resistance, and intimal thickening without plaque formation. The aortic intima showed no obvious overall thickening, with only occasional localized thickening and foam cell presence, and carotid artery injury was observed. ConclusionA rat model of DMA with Qi and Yin deficiency syndrome was successfully established using high-fat diet feeding combined with STZ injection and Yin-depleting herbal administration. Shenqi compound formula effectively alleviated Qi and Yin deficiency syndrome, regulated glucose and lipid metabolism, improved hemorheological and coagulation function, reduced vascular lesion severity, and demonstrated potential for early prevention and treatment of DMA.
3.Pollution levels and health risk assessment of nitrosamines in pipeline direct drinking water from primary and secondary schools in Shanghai
Ting WANG ; Chaoye SHEN ; Zhe CHEN ; Jian CHEN ; Yi SU
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2026;43(5):637-642
Background Nitrosamines (NAms), emerging as disinfection by-products in drinking water, are highly carcinogenic. Given the significant NAms contamination reported in various regions of China, evaluating the contamination levels and health risks of NAms in terminal direct drinking water is of great urgency. Objective To investigate the concentration levels of NAms in piped direct drinking water at primary and secondary schools in Shanghai, and to assess the potential health risks posed to different age groups through this exposure pathway. Methods A total of 198 water samples were collected from 66 primary and secondary schools across five districts in Shanghai from May to June 2023. The mass concentrations of eight major NAms were quantified using solid-phase extraction coupled with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). A carcinogenic health risk model was employed to evaluate the lifetime cancer risks associated with NAms exposure via direct drinking water for various age groups. Results Among the 198 samples, NAms were detected in 196 samples, with concentrationsranging from below the limit of detection (LOD) to 106.06 ng·L−1. The average concentration of total NAms was 21.30 ng·L−1, with N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) exhibiting the highest detection rate at 98.5%. Significant differences in NAms concentrations were observed among water treatment systems utilizing ultrafiltration (UF), nanofiltration (NF), and reverse osmosis (RO) as core processes (P<0.05). The lifetime cancer risks for different age groups ranged from 1.38×10−6 to 1.11×10−5, with NDMA contributing the most to the overall risk (82.1%). The carcinogenic risk for adults (1.08×10−5) was higher than that for children and adolescents (1.38×10−6 to 2.61×10−6). Among children and adolescents under 18 years of age, the risk decreased as age increased. Conclusion Trace levels of NAms, primarily NDMA, are detected in the piped direct drinking water at primary and secondary schools in Shanghai, with concentrations vary significantly depending on the water treatment process. The carcinogenic risks of NAms exposure via direct drinking water for all age groups are below the acceptable level (1×10−4) recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
4.Pollution levels and health risk assessment of nitrosamines in pipeline direct drinking water from primary and secondary schools in Shanghai
Ting WANG ; Chaoye SHEN ; Zhe CHEN ; Jian CHEN ; Yi SU
Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine 2026;43(5):637-642
Background Nitrosamines (NAms), emerging as disinfection by-products in drinking water, are highly carcinogenic. Given the significant NAms contamination reported in various regions of China, evaluating the contamination levels and health risks of NAms in terminal direct drinking water is of great urgency. Objective To investigate the concentration levels of NAms in piped direct drinking water at primary and secondary schools in Shanghai, and to assess the potential health risks posed to different age groups through this exposure pathway. Methods A total of 198 water samples were collected from 66 primary and secondary schools across five districts in Shanghai from May to June 2023. The mass concentrations of eight major NAms were quantified using solid-phase extraction coupled with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). A carcinogenic health risk model was employed to evaluate the lifetime cancer risks associated with NAms exposure via direct drinking water for various age groups. Results Among the 198 samples, NAms were detected in 196 samples, with concentrationsranging from below the limit of detection (LOD) to 106.06 ng·L−1. The average concentration of total NAms was 21.30 ng·L−1, with N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) exhibiting the highest detection rate at 98.5%. Significant differences in NAms concentrations were observed among water treatment systems utilizing ultrafiltration (UF), nanofiltration (NF), and reverse osmosis (RO) as core processes (P<0.05). The lifetime cancer risks for different age groups ranged from 1.38×10−6 to 1.11×10−5, with NDMA contributing the most to the overall risk (82.1%). The carcinogenic risk for adults (1.08×10−5) was higher than that for children and adolescents (1.38×10−6 to 2.61×10−6). Among children and adolescents under 18 years of age, the risk decreased as age increased. Conclusion Trace levels of NAms, primarily NDMA, are detected in the piped direct drinking water at primary and secondary schools in Shanghai, with concentrations vary significantly depending on the water treatment process. The carcinogenic risks of NAms exposure via direct drinking water for all age groups are below the acceptable level (1×10−4) recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
5.Analysis of the burden and trends of oral disorders among the elderly in China from 1990 to 2021
LI Zhixiao ; LOU Ting ; BAI Xiaoling ; CHEN Su ; GUO Shihong ; YANG Zengzhen ; XIAO Changliang
Journal of Prevention and Treatment for Stomatological Diseases 2025;33(11):954-967
Objective:
To analyze the disease burden and trends of oral diseases among China’s elderly population (1990-2021) and provide evidence for developing targeted intervention strategies
Methods :
Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, we extracted prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for oral conditions (permanent dental caries, edentulism, periodontal diseases, and other oral disorders) in individuals aged ≥60 years in China. Due to data limitations, other oral diseases only included DALYs and prevalence. Age-standardized rates (ASR)—including age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR)--were calculated. Trends were assessed via Joinpoint regression using average annual percentage change (AAPC), stratified by sex and age groups (60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 85-89, 90-94, 95+ years).
Results:
From 1990 to 2021, China’s elderly population exhibited distinct trends in oral disease burden. Overall oral diseases showed declining ASDR and ASPR, yet ASIR slightly increased. Permanent dental caries demonstrated significant rises across ASDR, ASIR, and ASPR. Edentulism showed declining ASDR and ASPR alongside stable ASIR. 95+ age group saw rising rates. Periodontal diseases remained largely stable in ASDR and ASPR but experienced a slight ASIR decline. Other oral disorders showed mild ASDR decline and stable ASPR. Notably, sex and age disparities persisted. Women consistently bore higher burdens for overall oral diseases, caries, edentulism, and other oral diseases but lower periodontal disease rates compared to men. 85-89, 90-95, 95+ age group faced rising DALYs and prevalence for overall oral diseases, while all other age groups demonstrated declining trends in both DALYs and prevalence; for permanent caries, the 60-64 age group showed the largest increases in DALY rate, incidence, and prevalence; edentulism demonstrated the most pronounced and sustained rises in DALY rate and prevalence in the 95+ group, while declining most rapidly in the 60-64 age group; for periodontal disease, both DALY rates and prevalence declined in the 90-94 and 95+ age groups, but increased across all measures (DALY rate, incidence, and prevalence) in the 70-74 and 75-79 age group; other oral conditions exhibited relatively stable burden distributions or minor changes, with no significant age-specific shifting trends observed.
Conclusion
From 1990 to 2021, China’s elderly oral disease burden declined overall, but caries surged, edentulism improved, periodontal diseases stabilized, and other oral diseases slightly declined. Prioritizing older women and the adults aged 85+ is critical to addressing evolving oral health needs.
6.Occupational health literacy among key populations in the tertiary industry in Lu'an City
LIU Lei ; CHENG Tingting ; QIAN Chunsheng ; HUANG Rui ; LI Ting ; TANG Kun ; WEI Dong ; SU Yiwen ; LI Haowei ; LI Pengfei
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(11):1179-1183
Objective:
To analyze the occupational health literacy (OHL) level and its influencing factors among key populations in the tertiary industry in Lu'an City, Anhui Province, so as to provide a basis for developing targeted health interventions and improving regional occupational health policies.
Methods:
A stratified cluster random sampling method was employed to select five categories of key populations from the tertiary industry in Lu'an City as study subjects from August to September 2024. Data on gender, age, education level, and OHL were collected through the National OHL Monitoring Questionnaire for Key Populations. The OHL levels were analyzed, and influencing factors of OHL levels among key populations were analyzed using a multivariable logistic regression model.
Results:
A total of 1 243 individuals were surveyed, comprising 700 (56.32%) males and 543 (43.68%) females. The median age was 42.00 (interquartile range, 17.00) years. There were 609 individuals with OHL, and the OHL level was 48.99%. The OHL levels in fundamental knowledge of occupational health protection, healthy work styles and behaviors, knowledge of occupational health laws, and basic skills for occupational health protection were 84.71%, 60.34%, 43.93%, and 37.09%, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that educational level (primary school and below, OR=0.149, 95%CI: 0.064-0.344; junior high school, OR=0.340, 95%CI: 0.184-0.629; high school, OR=0.408, 95%CI: 0.230-0.723), average monthly personal income (3 000-<5 000 yuan, OR=1.655, 95%CI: 1.092-2.508; 5 000-<7 000 yuan, OR=2.195, 95%CI: 1.302-3.699; ≥7 000 yuan, OR=2.062, 95%CI: 1.016-4.183), employer nature (private enterprises, OR=2.992, 95%CI: 1.569-5.443), and industry category (education, OR=3.423, 95%CI: 1.407-8.327; courier / food delivery services, OR=0.459, 95%CI: 0.268-0.787; healthcare, OR=7.539, 95%CI: 3.255-17.461) were statistically associated with the OHL level among key population.
Conclusion
The OHL level among key population in the tertiary industry of Lu'an City can be further enhanced, with educational level, average monthly personal income, employer nature, and industry category identified as the primary influencing factors.
7.Awareness and attitudes of elderly Southeast Asian adults towards telehealth during the COVID-19 pandemic: a qualitative study.
Ryan Eyn Kidd MAN ; Aricia Xin Yi HO ; Ester Pei Xuan LEE ; Eva Katie Diana FENWICK ; Amudha ARAVINDHAN ; Kam Chun HO ; Gavin Siew Wei TAN ; Daniel Shu Wei TING ; Tien Yin WONG ; Khung Keong YEO ; Su-Yen GOH ; Preeti GUPTA ; Ecosse Luc LAMOUREUX
Singapore medical journal 2025;66(5):256-264
INTRODUCTION:
We aimed to understand the awareness and attitudes of elderly Southeast Asians towards telehealth services during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in this study.
METHODS:
In this qualitative study, 78 individuals from Singapore (51.3% female, mean age 73.0 ± 7.6 years) were interviewed via telephone between 13 May 2020 and 9 June 2020 during Singapore's first COVID-19 'circuit breaker'. Participants were asked to describe their understanding of telehealth, their experience of and willingness to utilise these services, and the barriers and facilitators underlying their decision. Transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis, guided by the United Theory of Acceptance Use of Technology framework.
RESULTS:
Of the 78 participants, 24 (30.8%) were able to describe the range of telehealth services available and 15 (19.2%) had previously utilised these services. Conversely, 14 (17.9%) participants thought that telehealth comprised solely home medication delivery and 50 (51.3%) participants did not know about telehealth. Despite the advantages offered by telehealth services, participants preferred in-person consultations due to a perceived lack of human interaction and accuracy of diagnoses, poor digital literacy and a lack of access to telehealth-capable devices.
CONCLUSION
Our results showed poor overall awareness of the range of telehealth services available among elderly Asian individuals, with many harbouring erroneous views regarding their use. These data suggest that public health education campaigns are needed to improve awareness of and correct negative perceptions towards telehealth services in elderly Asians.
Humans
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COVID-19/epidemiology*
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Female
;
Telemedicine
;
Aged
;
Male
;
Singapore/epidemiology*
;
Qualitative Research
;
Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice
;
SARS-CoV-2
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Aged, 80 and over
;
Middle Aged
;
Pandemics
;
Awareness
;
Asian People
;
Southeast Asian People
8.Exploration of pharmacodynamic substances and potential mechanisms of Huazhuo Sanjie Chubi Decoction in treatment of gouty arthritis based on UPLC-Q-Exactive Orbitrap-MS technology and network pharmacology.
Yan XIAO ; Ting ZHANG ; Ying-Jie ZHANG ; Bin HUANG ; Peng CHEN ; Xiao-Hua CHEN ; Ming-Qing HUANG ; Xue-Ting CHEN ; You-Xin SU ; Jie-Mei GUO
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(2):444-488
Based on ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-quadrupole-Exactive Orbitrap mass spectrometry(UPLC-Q-Exactive Orbitrap-MS) technology and network pharmacology, this study explored the pharmacodynamic substances and potential mechanisms of Huazhuo Sanjie Chubi Decoction in the treatment of gouty arthritis(GA). UPLC-Q-Exactive Orbitrap-MS technology was used to identify the components in Huazhuo Sanjie Chubi Decoction, and the qualitative analysis of its active ingredients was carried out, with a total of 184 active ingredients identified. A total of 897 active ingredient targets were screened through the PharmMapper database, and 491 GA-related disease targets were obtained from the OMIM, GeneCards, CTD databases. After Venn analysis, 60 intersecting targets were obtained. The component target-GA target network was constructed through the Cytoscape platform, and the STRING database was used to construct a protein-protein interaction network, with 16 core targets screened. The core targets were subjected to Gene Ontology(GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes(KEGG) pathway enrichment analyses, and the component-target-pathway network was constructed. It was found that the main active ingredients of the formula for the treatment of GA were phenols, flavonoids, alkaloids, and terpenoids, and the key targets were SRC, MMP3, MMP9, REN, ALB, IGF1R, PPARG, MAPK1, HPRT1, and CASP1. Through GO analysis, it was found that the treatment of GA mainly involved biological processes such as lipid response, bacterial response, and biostimulus response. KEGG analysis showed that the pathways related to the treatment of GA included lipids and atherosclerosis, neutrophil extracellular traps(NETs), IL-17, and so on. In summary, phenols, flavonoids, alkaloids, and terpenoids may be the core pharmacodynamic substances of Huazhuo Sanjie Chubi Decoction in the treatment of GA, and the pharmacodynamic mechanism may be related to SRC, MMP3, MMP9, and other targets, as well as lipids and atherosclerosis, NETs, IL-17, and other pathways.
Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use*
;
Network Pharmacology
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Arthritis, Gouty/metabolism*
;
Chromatography, High Pressure Liquid/methods*
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Humans
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Mass Spectrometry/methods*
;
Protein Interaction Maps/drug effects*
9.Construction of Saccharomyces cerevisiae cell factory for efficient biosynthesis of ferruginol.
Mei-Ling JIANG ; Zhen-Jiang TIAN ; Hao TANG ; Xin-Qi SONG ; Jian WANG ; Ying MA ; Ping SU ; Guo-Wei JIA ; Ya-Ting HU ; Lu-Qi HUANG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(4):1031-1042
Diterpenoid ferruginol is a key intermediate in biosynthesis of active ingredients such as tanshinone and carnosic acid.However, the traditional process of obtaining ferruginol from plants is often cumbersome and inefficient. In recent years, the increasingly developing gene editing technology has been gradually applied to the heterologous production of natural products, but the production of ferruginol in microbe is still very low, which has become an obstacle to the efficient biosynthesis of downstream chemicals, such as tanshinone. In this study, miltiradiene was produced by integrating the shortened diterpene synthase fusion protein,and the key genes in the MVA pathway were overexpressed to improve the yield of miltiradiene. Under the shake flask fermentation condition, the yield of miltiradiene reached about(113. 12±17. 4)mg·L~(-1). Subsequently, this study integrated the ferruginol synthase Sm CYP76AH1 and Sm CPR1 to reconstruct the ferruginol pathway and thereby realized the heterologous synthesis of ferruginol in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. The study selected the best ferruginol synthase(Il CYP76AH46) from different plants and optimized the expression of pathway genes through redox partner engineering to increase the yield of ferruginol. By increasing the copy number of diterpene synthase, CYP450, and CPR, the yield of ferruginol reached(370. 39± 21. 65) mg·L~(-1) in the shake flask, which was increased by 21. 57-fold compared with that when the initial ferruginol strain JMLT05 was used. Finally, 1 083. 51 mg·L~(-1) ferruginol was obtained by fed-batch fermentation, which is the highest yield of ferruginol from biosynthesis so far. This study provides not only research ideas for other metabolic engineering but also a platform for the construction of cell factories for downstream products.
Saccharomyces cerevisiae/genetics*
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Diterpenes/metabolism*
;
Metabolic Engineering
;
Fermentation
;
Abietanes
10.Development and validation of predictive model for 30-day mortality in elderly patients with sepsis-associated liver dysfunction.
Beiyuan ZHANG ; Chenzhe HE ; Zimeng QIN ; Ming CHEN ; Wenkui YU ; Ting SU
Chinese Critical Care Medicine 2025;37(9):802-808
OBJECTIVE:
To develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting 30-day mortality among elderly patients with sepsis-associated liver dysfunction (SALD), to identify high-risk patients and improve prognosis.
METHODS:
A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) database for elderly patients with SALD who were first admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center between 2008 and 2019, including basic characteristics, severity scores, underlying diseases, infection foci, 24-hour vital signs, initial laboratory indicators, 24-hour complications, and prognosis related indicators. Patients were randomly assigned to training group and validation group in a ratio of 7 : 3. The training group used the LASSO regression analysis, as well as multivariate Logistic regression analysis to screen for independent risk factors for 30-day mortality. A nomogram prediction model was constructed, and receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the model, and validate the model using the validation cohort.
RESULTS:
A total of 630 elderly patients with SLAD were included in the study, including 441 in the training group and 189 in the validation group. Oxford acute severity of illness score (OASIS) for training group [odds ratio (OR) = 1.060, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.034-1.086], 24-hour pulse oxygen saturation (SpO2; OR = 0.876, 95%CI was 0.797-0.962), initial mean corpuscular volume (MCV; OR = 1.043, 95%CI was 1.009-1.077), initial red blood cell distribution width (RDW; OR = 1.237, 95%CI was 1.123-1.362), initial blood glucose (OR = 1.008, 95%CI was 1.004-1.013), and initial aspartate aminotransferase (AST; OR = 1.000, 95%CI was 1.000-1.001) were independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in patients (all P < 0.05). Based on the above variables, a nomogram model was constructed, and the ROC curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the model in the training group was 0.757 (95%CI was 0.712-0.803), with a sensitivity of 65.05% and a specificity of 74.90%; the AUC of the model in the validation group was 0.712 (95%CI was 0.631-0.792), with a sensitivity of 58.67% and a specificity of 81.58%. The calibration curves of the training and validation groups show that both the fitted curves were close to the standard curves. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test: the training group (χ 2 = 6.729, P = 0.566), the validation group (χ 2 = 13.889, P = 0.085), indicating that the model can fit the observed data well. The DCA curve shows that when the threshold probability of the training group was 16% to 94% and the threshold probability of the validation group was 27% to 99%, the net benefit of the model was good.
CONCLUSIONS
OASIS, 24-hour SpO2, initial MCV, initial RDW, initial blood glucose and initial AST are independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in elderly patients with SALD. The nomogram based on these six variables demonstrates good predictive performance.
Humans
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Sepsis/complications*
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Retrospective Studies
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Nomograms
;
Aged
;
Prognosis
;
Risk Factors
;
Liver Diseases/mortality*
;
Intensive Care Units
;
ROC Curve
;
Male
;
Female
;
Logistic Models


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