Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.

ObjectiveTo elucidate the critical role of rehabilitation medical records (including electronic records) in rehabilitation medicine's clinical practice and management, comprehensively analyzed the structure, core content and data standards of rehabilitation medical records, to develop a standardized medical record data architecture and core dataset suitable for rehabilitation medicine and to explore the application of rehabilitation data in performance evaluation and payment. MethodsBased on the regulatory documents Basic Specifications for Medical Record Writing and Basic Specifications for Electronic Medical Records (Trial) issued by National Health Commission of China, and referencing the World Health Organization (WHO) Family of International Classifications (WHO-FICs) classifications, International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10/ICD-11), International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF), and International Classification of Health Interventions (ICHI Beta-3), this study constructed the data architecture, core content and data standards for rehabilitation medical records. Furthermore, it explored the application of rehabilitation record summary sheets (home page) data in rehabilitation medical statistics and payment methods, including Diagnosis-related Groups (DRG), Diagnosis-Intervention Packet (DIP) and Case Mix Index. ResultsThis study proposed a systematic standard framework for rehabilitation medical records, covering key components such as patient demographics, rehabilitation diagnosis, functional assessment, rehabilitation treatment prescriptions, progress evaluations and discharge summaries. The research analyzed the systematic application methods and data standards of ICD-10/ICD-11, ICF and ICHI Beta-3 in the fields of medical record terminology, coding and assessment. Constructing a standardized data structure and data standards for rehabilitation medical records can significantly improve the quality of data reporting based on the medical record summary sheet, thereby enhancing the quality control of rehabilitation services, effectively supporting the optimization of rehabilitation medical insurance payment mechanisms, and contributing to the establishment of rehabilitation medical performance evaluation and payment based on DRG and DIP. ConclusionStructured rehabilitation records and data standardization are crucial tools for quality control in rehabilitation. Systematically applying the three reference classifications of the WHO-FICs, and aligning with national medical record and electronic health record specifications, facilitate the development of a standardized rehabilitation record architecture and core dataset. Standardizing rehabilitation care pathways based on the ICF methodology, and developing ICF- and ICD-11-based rehabilitation assessment tools, auxiliary diagnostic and therapeutic systems, and supporting terminology and coding systems, can effectively enhance the quality of rehabilitation records and enable interoperability and sharing of rehabilitation data with other medical data, ultimately improving the quality and safety of rehabilitation services.

Objective To investigate the global burden of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) from 1990 to 2021 and predict the trends in the burden of VL from 2022 to 2035, so as to provide insights into global VL prevention and control. Methods The global age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates of VL and their 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were captured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) data resources. The trends in the global burden of VL were evaluated with average annual percent change (AAPC) and 95% confidence interval (CI) from 1990 to 2021, and gender-, age-, country-, geographical area- and socio-demographic index (SDI)-stratified burdens of VL were analyzed. The trends in the global burden of VL were projected with a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model from 2022 to 2035, and the associations of age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs rates of VL with SDI levels were examined with a smoothing spline model. Results The global age-standardized incidence [AAPC = -0.25%, 95% CI: (-0.25%, -0.24%)], prevalence [AAPC = -0.06%, 95% CI: (-0.06%, -0.06%)], mortality [AAPC = -0.25%, 95% CI: (-0.25%, -0.24%)] and DALYs rates of VL [AAPC = -2.38%, 95% CI: (-2.44%, -2.33%)] all appeared a tendency towards a decline from 1990 to 2021, and the highest age-standardized incidence [2.55/10⁵, 95% UI: (1.49/10⁵, 4.07/10⁵)], prevalence [0.64/10⁵, 95% UI: (0.37/10⁵, 1.02/10⁵)], mortality [0.51/10⁵, 95% UI: (0, 1.80/10⁵)] and DALYs rates of VL [33.81/10⁵, 95% UI: (0.06/10⁵, 124.09/10⁵)] were seen in tropical Latin America in 2021. The global age-standardized incidence and prevalence of VL were both higher among men [0.57/10⁵, 95% UI: (0.45/10⁵, 0.72/10⁵); 0.14/10⁵, 95% UI: (0.11/10⁵, 0.18/10⁵)] than among women [0.27/10⁵, 95% UI: (0.21/10⁵, 0.33/10⁵); 0.06/10⁵, 95% UI: (0.05/10⁵, 0.08/10⁵)], and the highest mortality of VL was found among children under 5 years of age [0.24/10⁵, 95% UI: (0.08/10⁵, 0.66/10⁵)]. The age-standardized incidence (r = -0.483, P < 0.001), prevalence (r = -0.483, P < 0.001), mortality (r = -0.511, P < 0.001) and DALYs rates of VL (r = -0.514, P < 0.001) correlated negatively with SDI levels from 1990 to 2021. In addition, the global burden of VL was projected with the BAPC model to appear a tendency towards a decline from 2022 to 2035, and the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALYs rates were projected to be reduced to 0.11/10⁵, 0.03/10⁵, 0.02/10⁵ and 1.44/10⁵ in 2035, respectively. Conclusions Although the global burden of VL appeared an overall tendency towards a decline from 1990 to 2021, the burden of VL showed a tendency towards a rise in Central Asia and western sub-Saharan African areas. The age-standardized incidence and prevalence rates of VL were relatively higher among men, and the age-standardized mortality of VL was relatively higher among children under 5 years of age. The global burden of VL was projected to continue to decline from 2022 to 2035.

Objective: Machine learning (ML) has been reported to have better predictive capability than traditional statistical techniques. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of ML algorithms and logistic regression (LR) for predicting depressive symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Analyses were carried out in a national cross-sectional study involving 21,916 participants. The ML algorithms in this study included random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN), and gradient boosting machine (GBM) methods. The performance indices were sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: LR and NN had the best performance in terms of AUCs. The risk of overfitting was found to be negligible for most ML models except for RF, and GBM obtained the highest sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, and F1-score. Therefore, LR, NN, and GBM models ranked among the best models. Conclusion Compared with ML models, LR model performed comparably to ML models in predicting depressive symptoms and identifying potential risk factors while also exhibiting a lower risk of overfitting.

Objective: Machine learning (ML) has been reported to have better predictive capability than traditional statistical techniques. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of ML algorithms and logistic regression (LR) for predicting depressive symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Analyses were carried out in a national cross-sectional study involving 21,916 participants. The ML algorithms in this study included random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN), and gradient boosting machine (GBM) methods. The performance indices were sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: LR and NN had the best performance in terms of AUCs. The risk of overfitting was found to be negligible for most ML models except for RF, and GBM obtained the highest sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, and F1-score. Therefore, LR, NN, and GBM models ranked among the best models. Conclusion Compared with ML models, LR model performed comparably to ML models in predicting depressive symptoms and identifying potential risk factors while also exhibiting a lower risk of overfitting.

Objective: Machine learning (ML) has been reported to have better predictive capability than traditional statistical techniques. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of ML algorithms and logistic regression (LR) for predicting depressive symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Analyses were carried out in a national cross-sectional study involving 21,916 participants. The ML algorithms in this study included random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN), and gradient boosting machine (GBM) methods. The performance indices were sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: LR and NN had the best performance in terms of AUCs. The risk of overfitting was found to be negligible for most ML models except for RF, and GBM obtained the highest sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, and F1-score. Therefore, LR, NN, and GBM models ranked among the best models. Conclusion Compared with ML models, LR model performed comparably to ML models in predicting depressive symptoms and identifying potential risk factors while also exhibiting a lower risk of overfitting.

Objective: Machine learning (ML) has been reported to have better predictive capability than traditional statistical techniques. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of ML algorithms and logistic regression (LR) for predicting depressive symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Analyses were carried out in a national cross-sectional study involving 21,916 participants. The ML algorithms in this study included random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN), and gradient boosting machine (GBM) methods. The performance indices were sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: LR and NN had the best performance in terms of AUCs. The risk of overfitting was found to be negligible for most ML models except for RF, and GBM obtained the highest sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, and F1-score. Therefore, LR, NN, and GBM models ranked among the best models. Conclusion Compared with ML models, LR model performed comparably to ML models in predicting depressive symptoms and identifying potential risk factors while also exhibiting a lower risk of overfitting.

Objective: Machine learning (ML) has been reported to have better predictive capability than traditional statistical techniques. The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of ML algorithms and logistic regression (LR) for predicting depressive symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Analyses were carried out in a national cross-sectional study involving 21,916 participants. The ML algorithms in this study included random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), neural network (NN), and gradient boosting machine (GBM) methods. The performance indices were sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results: LR and NN had the best performance in terms of AUCs. The risk of overfitting was found to be negligible for most ML models except for RF, and GBM obtained the highest sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, and F1-score. Therefore, LR, NN, and GBM models ranked among the best models. Conclusion Compared with ML models, LR model performed comparably to ML models in predicting depressive symptoms and identifying potential risk factors while also exhibiting a lower risk of overfitting.

ObjectiveTo explore the correlation between the occurrence of cardiovascular events in rheumatoid arthritis（RA） and traditional Chinese medicine（TCM） syndrome. MethodsThe cross-sectional study selected 6713 RA patients from 122 centres nationwide， in which general information such as name， gender， age， height， body weight， and course of disease were collected by completing a questionnaire； patients were classified into eight types of syndrome according to the information of their four examinations，i.e. wind-dampness obstruction syndrome， cold-dampness obstruction syndrome， dampness-heat obstruction syndrome， phlegm-stasis obstruction syndrome， stasis-blood obstructing collateral syndrome， qi-blood deficiency syndrome， liver-kidney insufficiency syndrome， and qi-yin deficiency syndrome. According to the occurrence of cardiovascular events， they were divided into the occurrence group and the non-occurrence group， and the condition assessment data and laboratory examination indexes were recorded. The test of difference between groups was used to analyse the possible risk factors for the occurrence of RA cardiovascular events， and binary logistic regression was used to analyse the correlation between TCM syndromes and RA cardiovascular events. ResultsA total of 6713 RA patients were included， including 256 cases in occurrence group and 6457 in non-occurrence group. There was no statistically significant difference between groups in terms of height， gender， insomnia， appetite， white blood cell（WBC）， hemoglobin（HGB）， platelets（PLT）， rheumatoid factor（RF）， anti-cyclic peptide containing citrulline（CCP）， alanine aminotransferase（ALT）， aspartate aminotransferase（AST）， γ-glutamyl transpeptidase（GGT）， urea creatinine（CREA）， and glucose（GLU）（P＞0.05）. The TCM syndromes between groups showed significant statistic differences（P＜0.05）. Patients in occurrence group had longer disease duration， heavier body weight， and older age； more severe conditions such as disease activity（DAS-28）， number of painful joints（TJC）， number of swollen joints（SJC）， health questionnaire scores（HAQ）， visual analog scores（VAS）， restlessness， and fatigue； higher blood sedimentation rate（ESR）， low-density lipoprotein（LDL-C）， triglyceride（TG）， total cholesterol（TC）， D-Dimer， and lower high-density lipoprotein（HDL-C）（P＜0.05）. The distribution of syndrome types showed that dampness-heat obstruction syndrome accounted for the largest proportion of patients in both groups and was higher in RA cardiovascular events. Logistic regression analysis showed that the occurrence of RA cardiovascular events was strongly associated with dampness-heat obstruction syndrome［OR=5.937， 95%CI （4.434， 7.949）， P＜0.001］. ConclusionThe occurrence of RA cardiovascular events were associated with TCM syndromes， and the probability of cardiovascular events in the RA patients with dampness-heat obstruction syndrome was 5.937 times higher than patients with other TCM syndromes.

This study aims to investigate the anti-tumor effect and mechanism of Guiqi Yiyuan Ointment combined with cisplatin on Lewis lung carcinoma-bearing mice via the protein kinase RNA-like endoplasmic reticulum kinase(PERK)/eukaryotic translation initiation factor 2α(eIF2α)/activated transcription factor 4(ATF4)/C/EBP homologous protein(CHOP) signaling pathway. Sixty SPF-grade male C57BL/6 mice were selected and assigned into a blank group and a modeling group by the random number table method. After modeling of the Lewis lung carcinoma, the mice in the modeling group were randomized into model, cisplatin(5 mg·kg~(-1), once a week), and low-, medium-, and high-dose(1.7, 3.5, and 7.05 g·kg~(-1), respectively, once a day) Guiqi Yiyuan Ointment+cisplatin(5 mg·kg~(-1)) groups(n=10). After 14 days of continuous intervention, the spleen, thymus, and tumor samples of the mice were collected, weighed, and recorded, and the spleen index, thymus index, and tumor suppression rate were calculated. Hematoxylin-eosin(HE) staining was employed to observe the pathological changes in the tumor tissue. The morphological changes of the endoplasmic reticulum of tumor cells were observed by transmission electron microscopy. The positive expression of phosphorylated eIF2α(p-eIF2α) and ATF4 in the tumor tissue was detected by immunofluorescence. Western blot was employed to determine the protein levels of phosphorylated PERK(p-PERK), p-eIF2α, ATF4, CHOP, B-cell lymphoma-2(Bcl-2), Bcl-2-associated X protein(Bax), cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 1A(p21), and cyclinD1 in the tumor tissue. Real-time fluorescent quantitative PCR was employed to determine the mRNA levels of PERK, eIF2α, ATF4, CHOP, Bax, Bcl-2, p21, and cyclinD1 in the tumor tissue. Compared with the blank group, the model group showed decreases in spleen index and thymus index(P<0.05). Compared with the model group, the cisplatin group showed decreases in spleen index and thymus index(P<0.05), and the medium-and high-dose Guiqi Yiyuan Ointment+cisplatin groups presented increases in spleen index and thymus index(P<0.05). In addition, the treatment groups all showed decreased tumor mass(P<0.05), increased tumor cell lysis and nuclear rupture, widened gap between rough endoplasmic reticulum, enhanced average fluorescence intensity of p-eIF2α and ATF4(P<0.05), up-regulated protein levels of p-PERK/PERK, p-eIF2α/eIF2α, ATF4, CHOP, Bax, and p21(P<0.05), down-regulated protein and mRNA levels of Bcl-2 and cyclinD1(P<0.05), and up-regulated mRNA levels of PERK, eIF2α, ATF4, CHOP, Bax, and p21(P<0.05). Compared with the cisplatin group, the combination groups showed increases in spleen index and thymus index(P<0.05) as well as mean optical density(P<0.05), and the high-dose Guiqi Yiyuan Ointment+cisplatin group showed decreased tumor mass(P<0.05). In addition, the medium-and high-dose Guiqi Yiyuan Ointment+cisplatin groups showcased enhanced average fluorescence intensity of p-eIF2α and ATF4(P<0.05), up-regulated protein levels of p-PERK/PERK, p-eIF2α/eIF2α, ATF4, CHOP, Bax, and p21(P<0.05), down-regulated protein and mRNA levels of Bcl-2 and cyclinD1(P<0.05), and up-regulated mRNA levels of PERK, eIF2α, ATF4, CHOP, Bax, and p21(P<0.05). In conclusion, Guiqi Yiyuan Ointment combined with cisplatin can effectively inhibit the growth of Lewis lung carcinoma in mice by regulating the expression of proteins related to the PERK/eIF2α/ATF4/CHOP signaling pathway and promoting cell cycle arrest and apoptosis.
Animals ; Cisplatin/administration & dosage* ; Activating Transcription Factor 4/genetics* ; Eukaryotic Initiation Factor-2/genetics* ; eIF-2 Kinase/genetics* ; Carcinoma, Lewis Lung/pathology* ; Drugs, Chinese Herbal/administration & dosage* ; Male ; Mice ; Signal Transduction/drug effects* ; Mice, Inbred C57BL ; Transcription Factor CHOP/genetics* ; Ointments/administration & dosage* ; Humans ; Cell Proliferation/drug effects* ; Antineoplastic Agents/administration & dosage*