1.Perioperative immune dynamics and clinical outcomes in patients undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery
Zhiyuan CHENG ; Xinyi LIAO ; Juan WU ; Ping YANG ; Tingting WANG ; Qinjuan WU ; Wentong MENG ; Zongcheng TANG ; Jiayi SUN ; Jia TAN ; Jing LIN ; Dan LUO ; Hao WANG ; Chaonan LIU ; Jiyue XIONG ; Liqin LING ; Jing ZHOU ; Lei DU
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2026;39(1):31-43
Objective: To characterize perioperative dynamic changes in immune-cell phenotypes and inflammatory cytokines in patients undergoing CPB (cardiopulmonary bypass) cardiac surgery, and to explore their associations with postoperative outcomes. Methods: In this prospective cohort study, 120 adult patients who underwent elective cardiac surgery under CPB at West China Hospital from May 2022 to March 2023 were enrolled. Perioperative immune-cell phenotypes and concentrations of 40 inflammation-related cytokines were measured. The primary outcomes were the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score at 24 h after surgery and ΔSOFA (the peak SOFA score within 48 h after surgery minus the preoperative SOFA score). Secondary outcomes included major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), acute kidney injury (AKI), respiratory failure, severe liver injury, and infection. Results: The mean age of enrolled patients was 57±10 years. Of these, 52% (62/120) were male and 90% (108/120) underwent valve surgery. During the rewarming to the end of CPB, neutrophil counts rapidly increased (7.39×10
/L vs preoperative 3.07×10
/L, P<0.001), with significant upregulation of CD11b (7.30×10
/L vs preoperative 3.05×10
/L, P<0.001) and CD54 (7.15×10
/L vs preoperative 2.99×10
/L, P<0.001). Lymphocyte counts increased at the end of CPB (1.75×10
/L vs preoperative 1.12×10
/L, P<0.001) but decreased significantly at 24 h after surgery (0.59×10
/L vs preoperative 1.12×10
/L, P<0.001). Plasma analysis showed that multiple pro-inflammatory cytokines increased during CPB and remained elevated up to 24 h after surgery; five chemokines and the anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10 peaked at the end of CPB. The SOFA score increased from 1 (1, 2) preoperatively to 7 (5, 10) at 24 h after surgery, with a ΔSOFA of 6 (4, 8). Within 30 days after surgery, 48 patients (40.0%) developed AKI, 17 (14.2%) developed infection, 4 (3.3%) developed severe liver injury, 3 (2.5%) developed respiratory failure, and 3 (2.5%) experienced MACE. During the 2-year follow-up, 8 patients (6.7%) experienced MACE and 5 (4.2%) died. Conclusion: Multi-organ dysfunction is common after cardiac surgery under CPB (median ΔSOFA, 6), accompanied by perioperative activation of multiple immune-cell subsets and upregulation of pro-inflammatory, anti-inflammatory, and chemotactic mediators. This study provides data-driven evidence and research clues for further investigation of the associations between CPB-related immune perturbations and postoperative organ dysfunction and clinical outcomes.
2.Mechanism of MEK/Ras/Raf/ERK Signaling Pathway Modulated by Mimenghua Prescription on Inflammatory Response in Dry Eye Animal Model
Shi TAN ; Pei LIU ; Yuan ZHONG ; Sainan TIAN ; Pengfei JIANG ; Genyan QIN ; Qinghua PENG ; Jun PENG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(7):211-221
ObjectiveThis paper aims to investigate the effects and mechanism of Mimenghua prescription in modulating the mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase (MEK)/rat sarcoma viral oncogene homolog (Ras)/rapidly accelerated fibrosarcoma kinase (Raf)/extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) signaling pathway to inhibit inflammatory responses in a dry eye animal model. MethodsA total of 60 C57BL/6J mice (eight weeks old, half male and half female) were used in the experiment. Ten mice were randomly selected as the blank control group, while the remaining 50 were exposed to a controlled dry system and received instillation of 0.2% benzalkonium chloride (BAC) into the eyes for four weeks to establish a dry eye mouse model. After successful modeling, the mice were randomly divided into five groups: Model group, sodium hyaluronate group, and Mimenghua prescription groups with low dose (4.83 g·kg-1), medium dose (9.67 g·kg-1), and high dose (19.34 g·kg-1). The mice in the model group received an equal volume of normal saline via gavage for four weeks. The mice in the sodium hyaluronate group received instillation of sodium hyaluronate eye drops twice daily for 14 consecutive days. The tear secretion volume, tear film break-up time (TBUT), and corneal fluorescein staining were evaluated once every two weeks. After four weeks of administration, mice were euthanized, and their lacrimal gland tissues and corneas were harvested. Hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining was used to assess histopathological morphology. Western blot was performed to detect the protein expression levels of MEK, Ras, Raf, and ERK. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to measure the contents and expressions of MEK, Ras, Raf, ERK, and interleukin (IL)-1β in lacrimal gland and corneal tissues of the mice in each group. Quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (Real-time PCR) was employed to determine mRNA expression levels of MEK, Ras, Raf, and ERK. ResultsThe Mimenghua prescription groups and the sodium hyaluronate group exhibited significantly increased tear secretion volume (P<0.05) and prolonged TBUT (P<0.05) after treatment. Ocular surface damage of mice was visibly recovered. Western blot results indicated that protein expression levels of MEK, Ras, Raf, and ERK in the lacrimal gland and corneal tissues were significantly downregulated in the sodium hyaluronate group and Mimenghua prescription group with high dose (P<0.05). ELISA results showed that IL-1β levels were highest in the model group but significantly reduced in the sodium hyaluronate group and Mimenghua prescription groups (P<0.05). Both ELISA and Real-time PCR results demonstrated that the expression levels of MEK, Ras, Raf, and ERK in the lacrimal glands and corneal tissues were significantly elevated in the model group (P<0.05), but markedly downregulated in the sodium hyaluronate group and Mimenghua prescription groups (P<0.05), suggesting that Mimenghua prescription can decrease the expressions of MEK, Ras, Raf, and ERK in the lacrimal glands and corneal tissues. ConclusionMimenghua prescription can reduce inflammatory responses, increase tear secretion, prolong TBUT, and promote corneal recovery by inhibiting the MEK, Ras, Raf, and ERK signaling pathways in lacrimal gland and corneal tissues.
3.Finite element analysis of stress distribution of anchors at different implantation depths under different bone density conditions in rotator cuff tears
Meng WANG ; Tan LU ; Minjie LI ; Zhicheng LIU ; Xiaoyong GUO
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(3):561-569
BACKGROUND:Arthroscopic anchor repair has become the main treatment method for rotator cuff tears at present.Among them,the insertion status of the anchor is a key factor in the success or failure of the operation.However,currently,the impact of the insertion depth of the anchor on the stress of the bone tunnel and the anchor under different bone density conditions remains unclear.OBJECTIVE:To explore the stress distribution of the bone tunnel and the anchor when the insertion depth of the anchor varies under different bone density conditions by using three-dimensional finite element analysis technology.METHODS:The CT image data of the humerus of volunteers were collected,and the models of the humerus and the anchor were constructed by using Mimics,3-Matic,and Solidworks software.In 3-Matic,holes with distances of 0,2,4,6,and 8 mm from the surface of the humerus were respectively created at the same position of the humerus and assembled with the anchor.In Mimics,values were assigned based on the CT gray value to obtain a model with normal bone mass(T value ≥-1.0).The parameters were changed to construct models with reduced bone mass(-2.5<T value<-1.0)and osteoporosis(T value<-2.5).In each model,a 70 N pulling force was applied to the anchor along the direction tangent to the inner edge of the bone tunnel.The stress distribution and magnitude of the bone tunnel and the anchor when inserted at different depths under different bone density conditions were observed.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)When the insertion depth was the same,as the bone density decreased,the maximum equivalent stress of the anchor increased,while the maximum equivalent stress of the bone tunnel decreased.(2)When the bone density was the same,as the insertion depth of the anchor increased,the maximum equivalent stress of the anchor decreased.When the insertion depth was 4 mm,the stress of the bone tunnel was the smallest and the distribution was relatively uniform.The stress of the anchor was mainly distributed around the lower anchor hole and the proximal thread,and the stress of the bone tunnel was mainly at the part in contact with the proximal thread.The increase in the insertion depth would change the uniformity and pattern of the stress distribution,while the bone density had a relatively small impact on the stress distribution pattern.(3)It is concluded that the bone density of the humerus is crucial for the anchor repair of rotator cuff tears.It is recommended that clinicians measure the bone density of the greater tuberosity of the humerus before the operation.Excessive insertion depth of the anchor does not significantly increase its stability.Clinicians can conduct personalized preoperative assessments by using the finite element analysis method in combination with the actual situation of patients to achieve the best surgical results.
4.Qishao Capsules Improve Diabetic Renal Injury in db/db Mice by Inhibiting Podocyte Apoptosis via Regulating Caspase-8 and Caspase-3
Jingwei LIU ; Zhenhua WU ; Bing YANG ; Fengwen YANG ; Miao TAN ; Tingting LI ; Jinchuan TAN
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(2):126-135
ObjectiveTo observe the effect of Qishao capsules on renal injury in db/db mice with diabetic kidney disease (DKD),and explore its mechanism of protecting the kidney by inhibiting podocyte apoptosis. Methodsdb/m mice (7 mice) were used as the normal group,and db/db mice (35 mice) were randomly divided into a model group,a dapagliflozin group (0.001 g·kg-1·d-1),and low-,medium-,and high-dose groups of Qishao capsules (0.341 3,0.682 5,and 1.365 g·kg-1·d-1,respectively). Drug intervention lasted for 8 consecutive weeks. After sampling,the serum renal function indicators [creatinine(SCr),and urea nitrogen(BUN)],fasting blood glucose (FBG),24 h urinary protein quantification (24 h-UTP), and other indicators of the mice were measured. The pathological tissue morphology of the kidney was observed by periodic acid-silver methenamine (PASM) and Masson's trichrome (Masson) staining. Immunohistochemical detection of cysteine-dependent aspartate-specific protease (Caspase)-3 and B-cell lymphoma 2 (Bcl-2) was performed. Western blot was used to detect the protein expression of Caspase-8,Caspase-7,Caspase-3, and other molecules. Terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick End labeling (TUNEL) staining was used to observe apoptosis in renal tissue. Immunofluorescence staining of Wilms tumor suppressor gene-1
5.Pharmacodynamic Substances and Mechanisms of Xinglou Chengqi Tang in Treating Post-stroke Complications: A Review
Yujin ZHANG ; Xiangzhuo LIU ; Zhouyang CHEN ; Zihao SONG ; Xinyi LIU ; Yizhi YAN ; Chaoya LI ; Yingyan FANG ; Shasha YANG ; Xueqin CHENG ; Zhou XIE ; Sijie TAN ; Peng ZENG ; Yue ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(1):327-337
Stroke is the leading cause of death and disability among adults in China, and its common complications include digestive system abnormalities, cognitive impairment, depression, stroke-associated pneumonia, and hemiplegia. The combination of traditional Chinese and Western medicine has great potential in treating post-stroke complications. Xinglou Chengqitang (XLCQT) is a representative prescription of alleviating the disease in the upper part by treating the lower part. It has definite therapeutic effect and high safety. Clinically, XLCQT is often used to treat stroke and its complications. However, the quantity and quality of clinical trials of XLCQT in treating post-stroke complications need to be improved. Additionally, since the basic research is weak, the material basis and multi-target mechanism for the efficacy of this prescription are unknown. This article reviews XLCQT in terms of the pharmacodynamic basis, medicinal properties, safety evaluation, and progress in clinical research and mechanisms in treating post-stroke complications. This article summarizes 22 key active ingredients of XLCQT in treating acute stroke complicated with syndrome of phlegm heat and fu-organ excess. Among these key active ingredients, resveratrol, kaempferol, luteolin, chrysoeriol, apigenin, (+)-catechin, and adenosine have good pharmacokinetic properties and high bioavailability. The mechanisms of XLCQT in treating post-stroke complications are complex, including inflammatory response, brain-gut axis, hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, intestinal flora, neurotrophic factors, autophagy, oxidative stress, and free radical damage. This review helps to deeply understand the pharmacodynamic basis and mechanisms of XLCQT in treating post-stroke complications and provides a theoretical basis for the clinical application of XLCQT against post-stroke complications and the development of drugs.
6.Preliminary study on the characterization of exosomes in cryoprecipitate
Yingyi TANG ; Dawei CHEN ; Ailing TAN ; Xintong LI ; Yujian LIU ; Huibin ZHONG
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2026;39(6):718-723
Objective: To explore the types and levels of exosomes in cryoprecipitate from donors of different blood types, genders, and age groups, and to preliminarily characterize their specific proteins. Methods: Exosomes were extracted from cryoprecipitate using the polymer precipitation method. The exosomes were identified by particle size analysis, transmission electron microscopy, and Western blot. Finally, the specific proteins CD63, CD81, CD9, Cytochrome C, Syntenin-1, and VLA-4 of exosomes were characterized using Luminex. Results: The purified exosomes exhibited a double-membrane vesicle structure under microscopy, appearing saucer-shaped or as hemispheres with a concave side. They specifically expressed the CD63 and TSG101 proteins, while the endoplasmic reticulum protein Calnexin was not expressed. The particle sizes(nm) of exosomes from blood types A, B, O, and AB were 119.6±47.5, 120.5±47.4, 133.3±54.1 and 103.1±35.3, respectively. Taking the exosomal specific protein CD63 as an example, its expression levels(pg/mL) in cryoprecipitate from female and male donors were 128.22±63.52 and 117.39±40.84, respectively; the expression(pg/mL) levels in the 20-40 and 40-60 age groups were 114.20±37.28 and 131.41±64.98, respectively; and the expression levels(pg/mL) in the four blood types A, B, O, and AB were 109.58±37.79, 127.45±44.46, 131.89±40.59, and 122.29±78.68, respectively. The expression levels of CD63 in exosomes from different blood types, genders, and age groups were similar, with no statistically significant differences (all P>0.05). The distribution of the other five exosomal-specific proteins was also comparable among the normal blood donors. Conclusion: The expression levels of exosomal-specific proteins in cryoprecipitate from normal blood donors are not associated with blood type, gender, and age group.
7.Expert consensus on the application of artificial intelligence in lung cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment (2026 edition)
Wenzhao ZHONG ; Haibo WANG ; Yi HU ; Hao ZHANG ; Jigang DAI ; Junqiang FAN ; Guibin QIAO ; Fan YANG ; Jian HU ; Fengwei TAN ; Xuening YANG ; Qiang PU ; Zihao CHEN ; Hongxia TIAN ; Lunxu LIU ; Hecheng LI ; Xiaolong YAN ; Zongyang YU ; Zhenbin QIU ; Yihua SUN ; Jing HU ; Yuhang SHI ; Zhifei GUO ; Peng ZHANG ; Kezhong CHEN ; Shugeng GAO ; Yilong WU
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(06):848-856
With the continuous deepening of the concept of precision diagnosis and treatment for lung cancer, how to achieve higher efficiency and accuracy in the screening, diagnosis, and treatment pathways in clinical practice has become an important issue that urgently needs to be overcome. The current clinical difficulty lies in the fact that despite continuous advancements in imaging and molecular diagnostic technologies, there are still limitations in manual efficiency and subjective experience when it comes to massive data analysis and multi-scale feature extraction. Artificial intelligence (AI), especially algorithm systems based on deep learning, is an innovative technology capable of deeply empowering medical big data. This method utilizes algorithms such as convolutional neural networks, combined with radiomics, pathomics, and multi-modal data fusion analysis, demonstrating immense potential in early precise detection and benign-malignant differentiation of pulmonary nodules, digital pathological subtype recognition and non-invasive prediction of driver genes, precise 3D surgical planning and automatic delineation of radiotherapy target volumes, as well as dynamic risk warning during follow-up. This innovative technology provides a brand-new solution for realizing intelligent and individualized lung cancer diagnosis and treatment models. This consensus, based on the latest evidence from evidence-based medicine and combined with the development trends in the AI field and real-world clinical needs, was ultimately formed by gathering the consensus opinions of multidisciplinary experts in radiology, pathology, thoracic surgery, and other fields. The main content covers the application specifications of AI in the three core scenarios of lung cancer screening, diagnosis, and treatment, the technical standards for data collection and algorithm validation, as well as the ethical and regulatory challenges faced at the current stage. It aims to clarify the applicable boundaries of AI as a clinical auxiliary decision support tool, providing scientific guidance and standardized exploration directions for peers currently engaged in or planning to carry out AI-assisted clinical diagnosis, treatment, and translation of lung cancer.
8.Genetic diversity analysis of Aedes albopictus populations in Shandong Province using mitochondrial mtDNA-COⅠ gene sequences
Fan-jin MENG ; Yong LIU ; Huan HUANG ; Wei-bo MA ; Yi-fan WU ; Wei-long TAN
Acta Parasitologica et Medica Entomologica Sinica 2026;33(1):31-39
Objective This study aimed to investigate the genetic diversity, differentiation, and population structure of Aedes albopictus across different geographical regions in Shandong Province, and to explore the relationship between genetic diversity and geographical distribution. Methods Between July and August 2024, ten Ae. albopictus populations were sampled from seven cities in Shandong Province. Genomic DNA was extracted from individual mosquitoes, and the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I(COⅠ)gene was amplified using PCR and sequenced. The obtained sequences were verified using BLAST and analyzed with MAFFT, MEGA 11, DnaSP v6.12, Arlequin 3.5, PopART 1.7, STRUCTURE 2.3.4 and the R packages adegenet and vegan to assess genetic diversity and population structure. Results A total of 229 COⅠ sequences(662 bp) was obtained, revealing ten variable sites with no insertions or deletions. The overall base composition showed an AT bias of 67.7%. Haplotype analysis identified 11 haplotypes, with Hap2 being the dominant and most widely distributed haplotype across all populations. Neutrality tests showed significant population expansion only in the Rizhao population. Mantel testing result revealed that geographical distance does not significantly impede gene flow. Overall, genetic differentiation among populations was low, indicating frequent gene flow. When combined with additional samples from Shanghai, Fujian, Guangdong, Yunnan, Hainan and Guangxi, STRUCTURE, UPGMA and DAPC analyses revealed two primary genetic clusters of Ae. albopictus. Conclusions Ae. albopictus populations in Shandong Province exhibit frequent gene flow, low genetic differentiation, and relatively low overall genetic diversity. However, the Rizhao population showed signs of recent expansion, highlighting the need for enhanced surveillance and targeted control measures in this area.
9.The Neural Circuit Characteristics of Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation Over The Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex for The Treatment of Migraine
Chen-Xia JIN ; Bo-Lin TAN ; Yang YE ; Ji-Qing HE ; Ling-Yan WANG ; Zhong-Ming GAO ; Yu-Jun WANG ; Hui-Li LIU ; Yong-Xing YAN ; Xian-Wei CHE
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2026;53(7):1953-1968
ObjectiveMigraine is a leading neurological disorder and the fourth most common cause of years lived with disability worldwide, affecting nearly 116 million individuals. Although pharmacological treatments are available, their efficacy is often limited by side effects and variable response rates. Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) over the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) offers a safe, non-invasive alternative for migraine management. However, the neurophysiological mechanisms, particularly how rTMS modulates local cortical excitability and distributed pain-related circuits, remain poorly understood. Elucidating these mechanisms is essential for optimizing treatment protocols and improving clinical outcomes. MethodsThis study employed concurrent transcranial magnetic stimulation and electroencephalography (TMS-EEG) to investigate neuroplastic and neurocircuitry mechanisms of DLPFC-rTMS in migraine. Study 1 compared 30 migraineurs and 28 healthy controls to identify abnormalities in TMS-evoked potentials (TEPs) and significant current density (SCD) within sensory-discriminative regions including the primary somatosensory cortex (S1) and posterior insula (pINS), cognitive-affective regions including the anterior insula (aINS) and midcingulate cortex (MCC), and a descending modulatory region, the periaqueductal gray (PAG). Study 2 used a single-blind, crossover, sham-controlled design in 34 healthy participants. Each participant received both active (10 Hz, 80% RMT, 1 500 pulses) and sham DLPFC-rTMS in counterbalanced order. TMS-EEG and cold pain tolerance were assessed before and after each session. ResultsIn Study 1, migraineurs showed a significantly less negative N120 amplitude compared to healthy controls (P=0.027, Cohen’s d=0.60), indicating local intracortical disinhibition. No group differences were observed for N40, P60, or P180 components. At the source level, migraineurs exhibited significantly higher SCD in the S1, pINS, aINS, and MCC (allQ<0.05), but not in the ventroposterior thalamus (vpTHAL), mediodorsal thalamus (mdTHAL), or PAG. In Study 2, active rTMS significantly reduced SCD from pre- to post-stimulation in the S1, aINS, and MCC (all Q<0.05). Sham stimulation also reduced SCD in the S1 (Q<0.05) but not in the aINS or MCC. Although no significant group-level analgesic effect was observed between active and sham conditions (P=0.107), correlation analyses revealed that greater SCD reductions in the S1 and MCC were significantly associated with higher post-rTMS pain tolerance (R=-0.487 and -0.495, both Q<0.01) and larger improvements in pain tolerance(R=-0.487 and -0.451, both Q<0.05). No such correlations were found following sham stimulation, suggesting that the behavioural relevance of neural changes is specific to active rTMS. ConclusionThis study provides novel evidence that migraineurs exhibit both local neuroplastic abnormalities (reduced N120 amplitude) and hyperactivity in key pain-processing regions (S1, pINS, aINS, MCC). A single session of DLPFC-rTMS reduced hyperactivity in the aINS, MCC, and S1. Notably, greater reductions in the S1 and MCC were associated with improved pain tolerance. These findings identify distinct cortical circuitries, particularly within the cognitive-affective pain network, that may serve as potential biomarkers for optimizing rTMS treatment in migraine and other chronic pain conditions. Future studies should validate these results in patient populations experiencing spontaneous migraine attacks and explore multi-session or accelerated rTMS protocols.
10.Epidemiological characteristics and prediction analysis of hand, foot and mouth disease in Shanxi Province in 2012 - 2024
Wenjun WANG ; Xiaohong ZHANG ; Lijuan LIU ; Yaqiong SONG ; Qing TAN ; Yanzhen NIU
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(3):14-18
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Shanxi Province from 2012 to 2024, and predict the incidence trend for 2025, and to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of prevention and control strategies. Methods Based on the surveillance data of HFMD in Shanxi Province from 2012 to 2024, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and time trends of the disease were analyzed. The ARIMA model was constructed and used to predict the incidence trend in 2025. Results From 2012 to 2024, a total of 254 028 HFMD cases were reported in Shanxi Province, with an average annual incidence rate of 54.17 per 100 000 population, a severe case rate of 0.56%, and a case fatality rate (CFR) of 12.60 per 100 000 population. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence rate, severe case rate, mortality rate, and case fatality rate all presented a downward trend. The epidemic exhibited obvious seasonal distribution characteristics, with the peak period from April to November, and two incidence peaks in June-July and October-November. The male-to-female incidence ratio was 1.41:1. Children aged 1-5 years accounted for 89.24% of the total cases, among which scattered children (58.48%) and nursery children (33.54%) were the high-risk groups. Linfen City (96.06 /100 000) and Taiyuan City (88.54 /100 000) had relatively high incidence rates. After 2017, the proportion of enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) decreased, while coxsackievirus A16 (Cox-A16) and other enteroviruses became the main epidemic strains. The ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)₁₂ model predicted that the incidence of HFMD in 2025 would remain at the level of 2023-2024, and the dual-peak characteristic would continue. Conclusion From 2012 to 2024, the overall HFMD epidemic in Shanxi Province generally shows a significant downward trend. The high-risk population includes scattered children and nursery children under 5 years old, with high-incidence areas concentrated in the central and southern regions, requiring focused attention. The seasonal ARIMA model can effectively fit the evolutionary trend of HFMD incidence in Shanxi Province and possesses short-term predictive capability.


Result Analysis
Print
Save
E-mail