Objective:Based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, back propagation neutral network (BPNN), and ARIMA-BPNN model, select the optimal model suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hepatitis C in Taiyuan City according to the characteristics of the data.Methods:The data of reported cases of hepatitis C in Taiyuan from 2008 to 2021 were selected, and the seasonal trend decomposition chart was used to analyze the seasonal characteristics of the monthly incidence rate of hepatitis C in Taiyuan during the period, and the ARIMA model, BPNN model, and ARIMA-BPNN model were established to predict. The performance of the model was measured using four indicators: mean absolute error ( MAE), mean squared error ( MSE), root mean square error ( RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error ( MAPE). Results:A total of 20 025 cases of hepatitis C were reported, and the overall incidence trend was stable. The BPNN model performed well on MSE, MAE, and RMSE indicators, the ARIMA-BPNN model performed well on MAPE indicators, and the ARIMA model performed relatively averagely. Conclusions:The ARIMA-BPNN model is a better model for predicting the trend of hepatitis C in Taiyuan City, with a higher predictive performance than a single model. It has significant prospects in predicting the trend of infectious diseases.

Objective:Based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, back propagation neutral network (BPNN), and ARIMA-BPNN model, select the optimal model suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hepatitis C in Taiyuan City according to the characteristics of the data.Methods:The data of reported cases of hepatitis C in Taiyuan from 2008 to 2021 were selected, and the seasonal trend decomposition chart was used to analyze the seasonal characteristics of the monthly incidence rate of hepatitis C in Taiyuan during the period, and the ARIMA model, BPNN model, and ARIMA-BPNN model were established to predict. The performance of the model was measured using four indicators: mean absolute error ( MAE), mean squared error ( MSE), root mean square error ( RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error ( MAPE). Results:A total of 20 025 cases of hepatitis C were reported, and the overall incidence trend was stable. The BPNN model performed well on MSE, MAE, and RMSE indicators, the ARIMA-BPNN model performed well on MAPE indicators, and the ARIMA model performed relatively averagely. Conclusions:The ARIMA-BPNN model is a better model for predicting the trend of hepatitis C in Taiyuan City, with a higher predictive performance than a single model. It has significant prospects in predicting the trend of infectious diseases.

Primary liver cancer ( PLC) , the most com-mon malignant carcinoma in the world , greatly impairs the hu-man health .Various treatments for PLC have been practiced but the therapeutic effects are still unsatisfied .Nowadays, interven-tional therapy , chemotherapy , radiotherapy , molecular targeted therapy and radiofrequency ablation are playing a key role in hepatocellular carcinoma treatment .In near future , more ad-vancements on comprehensive therapy for PLC are being expec-ted.This review aimed to describe the recent scenario and cur-rent advancement on non-surgical treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma .

Objective To discuss the feasibility and curative effect of local resection on carcinoma of ampulla by duodenum.Methods 8 patients with ampulla of vater carcinoma were 1reared by local resections from January 2001 to July 2006.And one case was adenoma,the other were adenocarcinoma.Our methods of operation were the following:we cutted the vater periampullary tumor ring-shapedly far 2cm from tumor,and resected the 1.5～2.0 cmextreme of bile vessel and pancrealic duct.We rebuilded bile vessel and pancreatic duct and embedded them to duodenum.Results The 8 cases were recovered successfully,and there were on complications on them.Their average hospital days were 16 days.All of the patients were following-up,6 cases without tumor survived more than 20～68 months,and 1 case with adenoma has survived for more than 4 years.Conclusion Local resection on carcinoma of ampulla by duodenum is feasible,its wound,complications and death rate were lower.As long as the cases were suitable,parts of patients can be cured radically.

Objective To discuss the feasibility of caudate lobe hepatocarcinoma resection and summarize the experience.Methods Seven hepatocarcinoma resection cases from October 2003 to October 2007 were retrospectively reviewed.Result All these 7 patients Were operated successfully.Three cases survived 12,18 and 23 months after carcinosectomy respectively.After operation,4 cases had been alive for 10,11,17 and 24 months respectively.Conclusions The caudate lobe hepatocarcinoma resection is more difficult and more risky,but it is still the best therapy for caudate lobe hepatocarcinoma.Reasonable operation and postoperative combined therapy can get the satisfied long-term effect.