1.Comparison of the prognostic predictive efficacy of three frailty screening scales in elderly patients in the emergency department
Huizhen LIU ; Guodong WANG ; Yong SHANG ; Na SHANG ; Junyu LI ; Na WANG ; Xiaomeng LIU ; Shubin GUO ; Suxia MA
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(1):55-61
Objective:To investigate the association between frailty and prognosis of elderly patients in the emergency department, and to validate frailty screening tools suitable for the emergency department.Methods:This was a prospective cohort study. Clinical data of elderly patients over 60 years old treated in the emergency department of Beijing Bo'Ai Hospital from January to December 2021 were collected. The Frailty Screening Questionnaire (FSQ), FRAIL Scale (FRAIL) and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) were used to score patients, and patients were divided into frail or non-frail group according to the criteria of the above three scales. Twelve-month all-cause mortality was the primary endpoint, dependence and re-admission to the emergency department within 12 months were secondary outcomes. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to evaluate the ability of the FSQ, FRAIL and CFS scores to predict the primary and secondary endpoints, and the areas under the curve (AUC) were calculated and compared. Survival analysis was performed using Cox hazard proportional regression model, and relative risk was expressed as hazard ratio ( HR) and 95% CI. Results:A total of 406 patients were included in the study. The AUCs (95% CI) of FSQ, FRAIL and CFS scores for predicting 12-month all-cause mortality were 0.879 (0.844-0.909), 0.838 (0.798-0.872), 0.906 (0.873-0.933), respectively (all P<0.001). The AUCs of 3 scores for predicting secondary endpoints ranged from 0.820 to 0.889 (all P<0.001). Pairwise comparisons of the AUCs showed that the CFS was superior to one or both of the other frailty screening scales in predicting 12-month all-cause mortality and dependence except for re-admission to emergency room within 12 months after discharge (all P<0.05). Cox regression analysis revealed that, after adjusting for sex, age, body mass index and comorbidities, frailty as defined by the FSQ, FRAIL, and CFS scales was independently associated with 12-month all-cause mortality, with the HRadj of 3.267 (95% CI: 2.406-4.435), 2.465 (95% CI: 1.819-3.341), 3.523 (95% CI: 2.648-4.687), respectively (all P<0.001). Conclusions:FSQ, FRAIL and CFS scores can predict adverse outcomes, the CFS is a practical frailty screening tool in the emergency department, and frailty screening can improve the risk stratification of older patients.
2.Study on association between acute muscle wasting and poor prognosis in older patients with severe pneumonia in the emergency department
Na SHANG ; Qiujing LI ; Fei TENG ; Xiangqun ZHANG ; Shubin GUO
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(1):84-89
Objective:To explore the association between acute muscle wasting during hospitalization and poor prognosis in older patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) in emergency department.Methods:This study was a prospective cohort study. From January 1, 2022 to October 31, 2022, consecutive patients aged ≥65 years who met the diagnostic criteria of SCAP and had an interval of 14 days between two CT scans in the emergency department of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital were enrolled. The general clinical data and cross-sectional area of the erector spinae muscle (ESMcsa) of the thoracic 12 level derived from chest CT on day 1 and day 14 were recorded and the differences between the two measurements were calculated. Patients were divided into survival group and non-survival group based on whether they died within 28 days. Two independent samples t-test and Mann Whitney U test were used to compare the dynamic changes of ESMcsa between two groups, and paired t-test and Wilcoxon signed rank test were used to compare the changes of ESMcsa within two groups. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for 28-day mortality, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine the predictive value of ESMcsa loss for 28-day mortality. The optimal cutoff value was determined on the basis of the Youden index (YI), patients were divided into a high muscle loss group and a low muscle loss group, and Kaplan Meier survival curve was drawn. Results:A total of 106 older patients with SCAP were included, with a median age of 82.0 years and 59 were men (55.7%). The ESMcsa levels of patients in non-survival group were lower than those in survival group both at admission and on the 14th day (both P<0.01). The ESMcsa levels on admission were lower than those on the 14th day in non-survival group ( P<0.001). The loss of ESMcsa in non-survival group [3.01 (-1.51, 7.73) cm 2vs. 0.80 (-2.58, 4.57) cm 2, P=0.020] was higher than that in the survival group. Multivariable Cox regression showed that ESMcsa loss was an independent risk factor for 28-day mortality ( HR=1.116, 95%CI: .029-1.210, P=0.010), the AUC for predicting 28-day mortality was 0.646 (95% CI: 0.528-0.763, P=0.020), and the optimal cut-off value was 6.22 cm 2. Kaplan Meier survival curve showed that the 28-day mortality risk in the high muscle loss group was higher than that in the low muscle loss group ( χ2=11.412, P=0.001). Conclusion:Acute muscle wasting during hospitalization was associated with 28-day mortality among older patients with SCAP, which provides a basis for improving patient prognosis from a muscle perspective.
3.Development and validation of a prediction model to estimate the probability of frailty in older emergency patients
Junyu LI ; Guodong WANG ; Na SHANG ; Na WANG ; Shubin GUO ; Huizhen LIU
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(2):226-232
Objective:To develop and validate a prediction model by combining clinical data and biomarkers to evaluate the probability of frailty among older emergency patients.Methods:A cross-sectional study was conducted. From January 2021 to December 2021, patients aged 60 years and older admitted to the emergency department of China Rehabilitation Research Center were enrolled. Data of patient's clinical information were collected. The patients were divided into frail group and non-frail group according to the Fried's frailty phenotype and clinical data were compared between the two groups. LASSO regression was used to deal with dimension reduction and multivariate logistic regression was employed to construct a prediction model based on variables selected by the LASSO regression. Nomogram was used to visualize the prediction model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, decision curve analysis and bootstrap were used to evaluate the discrimination, calibration, clinical applicability, and internal validity of the model respectively.Results:A total of 348 patients were enrolled, and the incidence of frailty was 53.74% (187/348). Education, coronary heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, albumin, fibrinogen, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, decreased creatinine, and underweight were independent predictors for frailty in older emergency patients ( P < 0.05). A nomogram model was built based on the above predictors and the model showed good discrimination, calibration and clinical applicability. Conclusions:The study utilized objective clinical data and biomarkers to establish a predictive model for the occurrence of frailty in elderly emergency department patients. This model aids in risk stratification and targeted intervention for elderly emergency patients, thereby improving patient outcomes.
4.Tenecteplase versus alteplase in treatment of acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: A randomized non-inferiority trial
Xingshan ZHAO ; Yidan ZHU ; Zheng ZHANG ; Guizhou TAO ; Haiyan XU ; Guanchang CHENG ; Wen GAO ; Liping MA ; Liping QI ; Xiaoyan YAN ; Haibo WANG ; Qingde XIA ; Yuwang YANG ; Wanke LI ; Juwen RONG ; Limei WANG ; Yutian DING ; Qiang GUO ; Wanjun DANG ; Chen YAO ; Qin YANG ; Runlin GAO ; Yangfeng WU ; Shubin QIAO
Chinese Medical Journal 2024;137(3):312-319
Background::A phase II trial on recombinant human tenecteplase tissue-type plasminogen activator (rhTNK-tPA) has previously shown its preliminary efficacy in ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. This study was designed as a pivotal postmarketing trial to compare its efficacy and safety with rrecombinant human tissue-type plasminogen activator alteplase (rt-PA) in Chinese patients with STEMI.Methods::In this multicenter, randomized, open-label, non-inferiority trial, patients with acute STEMI were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive an intravenous bolus of 16 mg rhTNK-tPA or an intravenous bolus of 8 mg rt-PA followed by an infusion of 42 mg in 90 min. The primary endpoint was recanalization defined by thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) flow grade 2 or 3. The secondary endpoint was clinically justified recanalization. Other endpoints included 30-day major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) and safety endpoints.Results::From July 2016 to September 2019, 767 eligible patients were randomly assigned to receive rhTNK-tPA ( n = 384) or rt-PA ( n = 383). Among them, 369 patients had coronary angiography data on TIMI flow, and 711 patients had data on clinically justified recanalization. Both used a –15% difference as the non-inferiority efficacy margin. In comparison to rt-PA, both the proportion of patients with TIMI grade 2 or 3 flow (78.3% [148/189] vs. 81.7% [147/180]; differences: –3.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: –11.5%, 4.8%) and clinically justified recanalization (85.4% [305/357] vs. 85.9% [304/354]; difference: –0.5%; 95% CI: –5.6%, 4.7%) in the rhTNK-tPA group were non-inferior. The occurrence of 30-day MACCEs (10.2% [39/384] vs. 11.0% [42/383]; hazard ratio: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.61, 1.50) did not differ significantly between groups. No safety outcomes significantly differed between groups. Conclusion::rhTNK-tPA was non-inferior to rt-PA in the effect of improving recanalization of the infarct-related artery, a validated surrogate of clinical outcomes, among Chinese patients with acute STEMI.Trial registration::www.ClinicalTrials.gov (No. NCT02835534).
5.Development and validation of predictive model for 28-day mortality in very older patients with sepsis
Qiujing LI ; Na SHANG ; Zhen WANG ; Tiecheng YANG ; Shubin GUO
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2024;33(4):542-548
Objective:To develop and validate a predictive nomogram for 28-day mortality among very older patients with sepsis, to identify high-risk patients early and improve prognosis.Methods:This study was conducted from January 1, 2022, to November 30, 2022. Very older patients aged≥80 years with sepsis admitted to the emergency department of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital, Capital Medical University were consecutively recruited. Their clinical data within 24 h of admission and 28-day mortality was recorded. The participants were divided into training (70%) and validation cohort (30%) (random number). In the training cohort, the risk factors of 28-day mortality were selected via least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis and multivariable Cox proportional hazard model, and a nomogram was developed. The prediction model was verified in validation cohort.Results:In total, 507 very older patients with sepsis were included, among which the mortality rate was 31.2%. In training cohort, the independent risk factors for 28-day mortality were identified: increased age [hazard ratio ( HR)=1.059, 95% confidence interval (95% CI)=1.017-1.103, P=0.005], cognitive impairment ( HR=2.100, 95% CI=1.322-3.336, P=0.002), frailty ( HR=2.561, 95% CI=1.183-5.545, P=0.017), decreased mean arterial pressure ( HR=0.987, 95% CI=0.976-0.998, P=0.017), decreased prealbumin ( HR=0.997, 95% CI=0.994-1.000, P=0.040), increased blood urea nitrogen ( HR=1.028, 95% CI=1.010-1.045, P=0.001), increased procalcitonin ( HR=1.008, 95% CI=1.001-1.016, P=0.019) via LASSO regression analysis and multivariable Cox regression analysis. The nomogram was developed using these seven predictors. In the training and validation cohorts, the calibration curves, time-dependent AUC curves, and decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram had good calibration degree, discrimination and clinical net benefits. Conclusions:Increased age, cognitive impairment, frailty, decreased mean arterial pressure, decreased prealbumin, increased blood urea nitrogen, and increased procalcitonin are independent risk factors for 28-day mortality in very older patients with sepsis. The nomogram, which included the seven predictors, have good predictive performance, and might be helpful for prognosis assessment.
6.Study on the association between serum interleukin-6, silencing information regulator-1 and frailty
Huizhen LIU ; Na WANG ; Na SHANG ; Junyu LI ; Xiaomeng LIU ; Shubin GUO ; Fei TENG
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2024;33(5):677-682
Objective:To investigate the association between serum interleukin (IL) -6 and silent information regulator (SIRT) -1 and frailty in elderly patients in the emergency department.Methods:This was a cross-sectional study. Patients aged 60 years and above treated in the emergency department of Beijing Bo'Ai Hospital from January to December 2022 were collected. Blood routine, biochemical indicators, and serum IL-6 were detected within 24 h after enrollment. At the same time, fasting venous blood 2 mL was collected and the serum was stored at minus 80℃ after centrifugation. The level of SIRT-1 was detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Nutritional risk screening 2002 was performed within 72 h, Barthel index was used to assess the ability of daily living and grip strength was measured. The patients were divided into frailty and non-frailty groups according to Fried frailty phenotype (FP). The differences of clinical data and laboratory indicators were compared between the two groups. Multivariable logistic regression model was used to analyze the association between serum IL-6, SIRT-1 and frailty. The predictive ability of serum IL-6 and SIRT-1 for frailty was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.Results:A total of 316 elderly patients in the emergency department were included in this study and divided into frailty group ( n=156) and non-frailty group ( n=160) according to Fried FP criteria. Univariate analysis showed that serum IL-6 [33.3 (13.0, 69.2) ng/L vs. 20.0 (9.2, 41.3) ng/L, P=0.001] and SIRT-1 [(9.98±1.23) μg/L vs. (8.98±1.65) μg/L, P<0.001] of patients in the frailty group were higher than those in the non-frailty group. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that serum IL-6 ( OR=1.006, 95% CI: 1.001-1.011, P=0.036) and SIRT-1 ( OR=1.838, 95% CI: 1.475-2.290, P<0.001) were independently associated with frailty after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, Barthel index and grip strength. The area under the curve (AUC) of serum IL-6 for predicting frailty was 0.671 (95% CI: 0.604-0.738, P<0.001), the predictive cut-off point was 33.8 ng/L. The AUC of SIRT-1 for predicting frailty was 0.736 (95% CI: 0.674-0.799, P<0.001), the predictive cut-off point was 9.13 μg/L. The AUC of the model of IL-6 combined with SIRT-1 was 0.765 (95% CI: 0.707-0.823, P<0.001), the sensitivity and specificity were 0.776 and 0.726, respectively, and its predictive efficacy was superior to that of IL-6 alone ( Z=2.119, P=0.034). Conclusion:Serum IL-6 and SIRT-1 are independent predictors of frailty in elderly patients in the emergency department.
7.Effects of metoprolol succinate on acute stage pacing threshold and amplitude of intracardiac electrical signal in a leadless pacemaker
Kaidi JING ; Cheng LI ; Xiao MA ; Shubin JIANG ; Lan LI
The Journal of Practical Medicine 2024;40(21):3036-3039
Objective To investigate the effects of metoprolol succinate sustained-release tablets on acute phase ventricular pacing threshold and intracardiac electrical signal amplitude in a leadless pacemaker(Micra).Methods A total of 100 patients implanted with a leadless pacemaker were selected and divided into a study group(n=43)and a control group(n=57)according to whether oral metoprolol succinate sustained release tablets were postoperatively administered.The patients with underlying diseases including hypertension,coronary heart disease,or diabetes were treated with antihypertensive drugs,hypoglycemic drugs,or anti-platelet aggregation drugs.The study group received oral metoprolol succinate sustained release tablets within one to three days after implantation of a leadless pacemaker;while the control group received no metoprolol succinate sustained release tablets.Changes in ventricular pacing threshold and intracardiac electrical signal amplitude were observed in two groups one week,one month and three months after implantation.Results No serious complications occurred in the patients at the three time points after implantation.Ventricular pacing thresholds were stable in both groups,and there was no statistical significance between the two groups as compared with the same time period(P>0.05).In terms of amplitude of ventricular intracardiac electrical signal,theamplitude of ventricular R-wave did not differ significantly between the two groups at the three time points after implantation(P>0.05).Conclusions Oral administration of metoprolol succinate sustained release tablets had no significant effects on acute phase ventricular pacing threshold and intracardiac electrical signal amplitude in a leadless pacemaker(Micra).
8.The diagnostic value of cone beam CT in styloid process syndrome via logistic regression combined with receiver operating characteristic curve analysis
Chenglong ZHOU ; Ruitao LI ; Yugang LIU ; Shubin LUO
Journal of Practical Radiology 2024;40(9):1417-1420
Objective To analyze the predictive value of cone beam computed tomography(CBCT)in styloid process syndrome(SPS)via logistic regression combined with receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on imaging data of 186 patients who underwent styloid CBCT.Among them,65 patients were clinically diagnosed with SPS(patient group),while 121 constituted the healthy controls(control group).The styloid length,inclination angle,and anteversion angle were measured,respectively.Logistic regression analysis was employed,and ROC curves were plotted to calculate sensitivity,specificity,and Youden index,the diagnostic cut-off values for SPS was obtained.Results In the control group,the styloid length was(29.66±7.22)mm,inclination angle was(22.34±3.05)°,and anteversion angle was(31.01±4.13)°.In the patient group,the styloid length was(40.30±8.65)mm,inclination angle was(21.86±3.74)°,and anteversion angle was(35.88±6.37)°.Logistic regression analysis revealed that styloid length and anteversion angle were risk factors for diagnosing SPS(P<0.05),while inclination angle was not a risk factor for diagno-sing SPS(P>0.05).ROC curve analysis demonstrated that diagnosing SPS,the area under the curve(AUC),sensitivity,specificity,and optimal cut-off value for styloid length were 0.868,92.3%,69.7%,and 31.23 mm,respectively;and for anteversion angle were 0.765,63.1%,89.3%,and 35.15°,respectively.Conclusion CBCT measurements of styloid length,inclination angle,and antever-sion angle suggest that a styloid length exceeding 31.23 mm and an styloid anteversion angle greater than 35.15° may indicate a higher likelihood of SPS.CBCT is a convenient,cost-effective,and safe diagnostic tool with positive clinical implications.
9.Analysis of the types and functions of CD34 + cells in full-thickness skin defect wounds of normal mice and diabetic mice by single-cell RNA sequencing
Jia HE ; Jingru WANG ; Wenjun GAN ; Guiqiang LI ; Qi XIN ; Zepeng LIN ; Shubin RUAN ; Xiaodong CHEN
Chinese Journal of Burns 2024;40(3):230-239
Objective:To analyze the types and functions of CD34 + cells in full-thickness skin defect wounds of normal mice and diabetic mice by single-cell RNA sequencing. Methods:This study was an experimental study. The CD34 + cell lineage tracing mouse was produced, and the visualization of CD34 + cells under the fluorescent condition was realized. Six male CD34 + cell lineage tracing mice aged 7-8 weeks (designated as diabetic group) were intraperitoneally injected with streptozotocin to establish a diabetic model, and full-thickness skin defect wounds were prepared on their backs when they reached 13 weeks old. Another 6 male CD34 + cell lineage tracing mice aged 13 weeks (designated as control group) were also subjected to full-thickness skin defect wounds on their backs. On post-injury day (PID) 4, wound tissue was collected from 3 mice in control group and 2 mice in diabetic group, and digested to prepare single-cell suspensions. CD34 + cells were screened using fluorescence-activated cell sorting, followed by single-cell RNA sequencing. The Seurat 4.0.2 program in the R programming language was utilized for dimensionality reduction, visualization, and cell clustering analysis of CD34 + cell types, and to screen and annotate the marker genes for each CD34 + cell subpopulation. Kyoto encyclopedia of genes and genomes (KEGG) and gene ontology (GO) enrichment analysis was performed to analyze the differentially expressed genes (DEGs) of CD34 + fibroblasts (Fbs), smooth muscle cells (SMCs), keratinocytes (KCs), and chondrocyte-like cells (CLCs) in the wound tissue of two groups of mice for exploring cellular functions. Results:On PID 4, CD34 + cells in the wound tissue of both groups of mice were consisted of 7 cell types, specifically endothelial cells, Fbs, KCs, macrophages, T cells, SMCs, and CLCs. Among these, Fbs were further classified into 5 subpopulations. Compared with those in control group, the proportions of CD34 + endothelial cells, Fbs subpopulation 1, Fbs subpopulation 4, KCs, and CLCs in the wound tissue of mice were increased in diabetic group, while the proportions of CD34 + Fbs subpopulation 2, Fbs subpopulation 3, and SMCs were decreased. The marker genes for annotating CD34 + CLCs, endothelial cells, Fbs subpopulation 1, Fbs subpopulation 2, Fbs subpopulation 3, Fbs subpopulation 4, Fbs subpopulation 5, KCs, macrophages, SMCs, and T cells were respectively metastasis-associated lung adenocarcinoma transcript 1, fatty acid binding protein 4, Gremlin 1, complement component 4B, H19 imprinted maternally expressed transcript, Dickkopf Wnt signaling pathway inhibitor 2, fibromodulin, keratin 5, CD74 molecule, regulator of G protein signaling 5, and inducible T-cell co-stimulator molecule. KEGG and GO enrichment analysis revealed that, compared with those in control group, DEGs with significant differential expression (SDE) in CD34 + Fbs from the wound tissue of mice in diabetic group on PID 4 were significantly enriched in terms related to inflammatory response, extracellular matrix (ECM) organization, regulation of cell proliferation, and aging (with Pvalues all <0.05), DEGs with SDE in CD34 + SMCs were significantly enriched in terms related to cell migration, apoptotic process, positive regulation of transcription, and phagosome (with P values all <0.05), DEGs with SDE in CD34 + KCs were significantly enriched in terms related to mitochondrial function, transcription, and neurodegenerative diseases (with P values all <0.05), and DEGs with SDE in CD34 + CLCs were significantly enriched in terms related to rhythm regulation, ECM, and viral infection (with P values all <0.05). Conclusions:CD34 + cells display high heterogeneity in the healing process of full-thickness skin defect wounds in both normal mice and diabetic mice. The significantly enriched functions of DEGs with SDE in CD34 + cell subpopulations in the wound tissue of the two mouse groups are closely related to the wound healing process.
10.Construction and efficacy evaluation of a short-term prognostic model for emergency patients with acute ischemic cerebral stroke
Xiaomeng LIU ; Junyu LI ; Wei HE ; Na WANG ; Shubin GUO ; Huizhen LIU
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2024;33(1):51-58
Objective:To establish a 14-day prognosis model for emergency patients with acute ischemic cerebral stroke and evaluate its predictive efficacy.Methods:A prospective cohort study was conducted. Patients with acute ischemic stroke admitted to the emergency department of Beijing Bo’ai Hospital within 72 hours of onset from October 2018 to December 2020 were enrolled. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to screen the risk factors of poor prognosis. The ROC curve was drawn to determine the cut-off value of continuous variables and discretise data with reference to clinical practice. The corresponding scores were set up according to the β regression coefficient of each variable, and the clinical scale prediction model of short-term prognosis of acute cerebral infarction was established. Patients with ischemic stroke in the hospital from January to December 2021 were selected as the internal validation, to verify the constructed predictive model.Results:A total of 321 patients were included in the study, including 223 in the training set and 98 in the internal validation set. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, hypersensitive C-reactive protein, prealbumin (PA), infarct volume, Frailty Screening Questionnaire (FSQ) and National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) were independent risk factors for poor short-term prognosis of acute cerebral infarction. The total score of the clinical prediction scoring system for short-term prognosis of acute cerebral infarction in the emergency department was 15 points, including age ≥74 years (1 point), PA ≤373 mg/L (2 points), large artery atherosclerosis (1 point), cardiogenic embolism (2 points), infarct volume ≥ 2.18 cm 3 (2 points), FSQ ≥3 points (1 point), NIHSS ≥4 points (6 points); The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the scoring system for predicting short-term poor prognosis of acute cerebral infarction was 0.927 (95% CI: 0.894-0.960). The optimal cut-off value was ≥5 points, and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.770 and 0.976, respectively. In the internal validation set, the scoring system had similar predictive value for poor outcomes (AUC=0.892, 95% CI:0.827-0.957). Conclusion:The scoring system for short-term prognosis prediction of acute ischemic cerebral infarction has good diagnostic efficacy, and could guide clinicians to judge the prognosis of emergency patients in the early stage.

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