OBJECTIVE To evaluate the clinical efficacy of Chaihu anxin capsules in the treatment of mild-to-moderate depression， analyze the influencing factors of its efficacy, construct a nomogram prediction model.METHODS Patients with mild-to-moderate depression treated at The First Hospital of Hebei Medical University from May 1， 2023 to March 10， 2025 were retrospectively included and categorized into Chaihu anxin capsules group and milnacipran group according to treatment regimen. Propensity score matching （PSM） was used to balance baseline characteristics， and treatment efficacy was compared after 8 weeks， including 24 Hamilton Depression Scale （HAMD-24） scores and changes， Hamilton Anxiety Scale （HAMA） scores and changes， and treatment response rate after 8 weeks of treatment. Patients receiving Chaihu anxin capsules were further classified as responders or non-responders based on the occurrence of treatment response. Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify the influencing factors of treatment response， and a nomogram model was constructed to predict the probability of treatment response， its predictive performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curves， calibration curves， and decision curve analysis.RESULTS A total of 297 patients were included before PSM， including 196 patients in the Chaihu anxin capsules group and 101 patients in the milnacipran group. After PSM， each group included 44 patients. After PSM， the HAMD-24 scores and HAMA scores at 8 weeks after treatment in the Chaihu anxin capsules group， as well as the HAMD-24 scores in the milnacipran group， were significantly lower than their respective baseline values （ P ＜0.05）； the change in HAMA score in the Chaihu anxin capsules group was significantly greater than that in the milnacipran group （ P ＝0.04）. Multivariable Logistic regression identified age， total bilirubin， and baseline HAMD-24 score as independent predictors of treatment response （ P ＜0.05）. The area under the ROC curve of the constructed nomogram prediction model was 0.72 （95% confidence interval： 0.637-0.799）， and the corrected Brier score was 0.143 （95% confidence interval： 0.112-0.176）； compared with the “all intervention” and “all non intervention” strategies， applying this nomogram prediction model could achieve higher net benefits within the threshold probability range of 8% to 37%.CONCLUSIONS The efficacy of Chaihu anxin capsules in improving mild-to-moderate depression is comparable to that of milnacipran， and it has certain advantages in improving anxiety symptoms； age， total bilirubin， and baseline HAMD-24 score are independent influencing factors for the treatment response of Chaihu anxin capsules. The nomogram prediction model constructed based on these factors has good discrimination， calibration， and clinical applicability.