BACKGROUND: As an essential part of health services, rehabilitation is of great significance to improve the health and quality of life of the whole population. Accelerating aging calls for a significant expansion of rehabilitation services in China, but rehabilitation needs remain unclear. We conducted the study to explore the rehabilitation needs in China and project the trend of rehabilitation needs from 2020 to 2034. METHODS: The data of health conditions that might potentially benefit from rehabilitation were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify the trends of the age-standardized rates. Projections of rehabilitation needs were made until 2034 using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis (BAPC). RESULTS: Approximately 460 million persons (33.3% of the total population) need rehabilitation in China, contributing to 63 million years lived with disabilities (YLDs) in 2019. The number of prevalent cases that need rehabilitation increased from around 268 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257-282) million in 1990 to almost 460 (95% UI: 443-479) million in 2019, representing an increase of 71.3%. The highest contribution to the need for rehabilitation was musculoskeletal disorders with about 322 (95% UI: 302-343) million persons in seven aggregate disease and injury categories, and hearing loss with over 95 (95% UI: 84-107) million people among 25 health conditions. Based on the projection results, there will be almost 636 million people (45% of the total population) needing rehabilitation services in China by 2034, representing an increase of 38.3%. The rehabilitation needs of neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, and neurological disorders are expected to increase significantly from 2019 to 2034, with increases of 102.3%, 88.8% and 73.2%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The need for rehabilitation in China substantially increased over the last 30 years. It is predicted that over two in five people will require rehabilitation by 2034, thus suggesting the need to develop rehabilitation services that meet individuals' rehabilitation needs.
Humans ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease ; Female ; Male ; Musculoskeletal Diseases/epidemiology* ; Rehabilitation/trends* ; Quality of Life ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Bayes Theorem

Aim To investigate the relationship between systemic inflammatory immune index(SII)and systemic inflammatory response index(SIRI)and the risk of in-hospital major adverse cardiovascular events(MACE)in patients with acute myocardial infarction(AMI).Methods Retrospective analysis was conducted on AMI patients ad-mitted to the Second Cardiovascular Disease Area of Suining Central Hospital from February 2021 to May 2022.Based on inclusion and exclusion criteria,246 patients were finally enrolled.According to whether MACE occurred during hospital-ization,they were divided into event group and non-event group,and baseline data of the two groups were compared.All variables except SII and SIRI were included in a univariate-multivariate Logistic regression analysis to screen factors af-fecting the risk of MACE,and were used as significant covariates for adjustment to evaluate the relationship between SII and SIRI and the risk of MACE respectively.Results The results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that emergency PCI,left ventricular ejection fraction,albumin level and age were significant factors affecting the risk of in-hos-pital MACE in AMI patients(OR=0.432,95％CI:0.194～0.960,P=0.038;OR=0.930,95％CI:0.890～0.969,P=0.001;OR=0.730,95％CI:0.621～0.845,P＜0.001;OR=1.143,95％CI:1.070～1.228,P＜0.001),and a basic model was established based on this.After adjusting for the significant covariates,SII and SIRI were both independ-ent risk factors for in-hospital MACE(OR=1.004,95％CI:1.001～1.008,P=0.002;OR=4.467,95％CI:2.597～8.142,P＜0.001).The areas under the curves of SII and SIRI were 0.658 and 0.785,respectively,and the optimal cutoff values were 434.83 and 1.03.Restricted cubic spline analysis showed that SII(Nonlinear P=0.639)and SIRI(Nonlinear P=0.683)were linearly related to the risk of MACE after adjusting significant covariates.Threshold effect a-nalysis showed that when SIRI＞0.93,the risk of MACE began to increase.Conclusion Elevated levels of SII and SI-RI are independent risk predictors for the occurrence of in-hospital MACE in AMI patients.