Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.
Male ; Female ; Humans ; Risk Factors ; Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology* ; Mortality, Premature ; Smoking ; Cost of Illness ; China/epidemiology* ; Global Burden of Disease

Background: and Purpose Intravenous tenecteplase (TNK) efficacy has not been well demonstrated in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) beyond 4.5 hours after onset. This study aimed to determine the effect of intravenous TNK for AIS within 4.5 to 24 hours of onset. Methods: In this pilot trial, eligible AIS patients with diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI)-fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) mismatch were randomly allocated to intravenous TNK (0.25 mg/kg) or standard care within 4.5–24 hours of onset. The primary endpoint was excellent functional outcome at 90 days (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score of 0–1). The primary safety endpoint was symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH). Results: Of the randomly assigned 80 patients, the primary endpoint occurred in 52.5% (21/40) of TNK group and 50.0% (20/40) of control group, with no significant difference (unadjusted odds ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval 0.46–2.66; P=0.82). More early neurological improvement occurred in TNK group than in control group (11 vs. 3, P=0.03), but no significant differences were found in other secondary endpoints, such as mRS 0–2 at 90 days, shift analysis of mRS at 90 days, and change in National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at 24 hours and 7 days. There were no cases of sICH in this trial; however, asymptomatic intracranial hemorrhage occurred in 3 of the 40 patients (7.5%) in the TNK group. Conclusion This phase 2, randomized, multicenter study suggests that intravenous TNK within 4.5–24 hours of onset may be safe and feasible in AIS patients with a DWI-FLAIR mismatch.

Objective: Predictive models were used to evaluate the impact of common risk factors on the number of cardio-cerebrovascular deaths and the probability of premature death. Methods: Using the data for China estimated by the Global Burden of Disease study 2015 (GBD 2015), we calculated the population attribution fraction (PAF) of risk factors. The proportional change model was used to estimate the number of unattributable deaths by 2030, and to predict the number of deaths, mortality, standardized mortality and probability of premature death by 2030. Results: According to the natural change trend of risk factors from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality would reach 6.12 million and 428.53/100 000 by 2030, with an increase of 59.92% and 52.87%. By 2030, the probability of premature death from cardio-cerebrovascular diseases among Chinese aged 30-70 years old would continue to decline, from 11.43% to 11.28% for men, and from 5.79% to 4.43% for women. If the goals of all included risk factors were reached by 2030, 2 289 200 cardio-cerebrovascular deaths would be avoided. If only the exposure to a single risk factor was achieved by 2030, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and fine particulate matter exposure were the three most important factors affecting cardio-cerebrovascular deaths, which would reduce 1 332 800, 609 100 and 306 800 deaths, respectively. Among the involved risk factors, the control of blood pressure would mostly decrease the number of deaths due to ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke, about 677 300 and 391 100 deaths, accordingly. Conclusion: The control of risk factors is of great significance in reducing deaths and probability of premature death due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. If the control targets of all risk factors could be achieved by 2030, the burden of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases would be reduced greatly.
Adult ; Aged ; Blood Pressure ; Cerebrovascular Disorders/epidemiology* ; China/epidemiology* ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Mortality, Premature ; Risk Factors

Objective: To predict the number of deaths, standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control at different levels in China in 2030, and assess the possibility of achieving the target of reducing the probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. Methods: According to the risk factor control standard for malignant cancer used both at home and abroad, the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 were used to calculate the population attributable fraction of the risk factors. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory, the deaths of malignant cancer were classified as attributable deaths and un-attributable deaths. Proportional change model was used to predict risk factor exposure and un-attributable deaths of malignant cancer in the future, then the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer in 2030 was estimated. Data analyses were performed by using software R 3.6.1. Results: If the risk factor exposure level during 1990-2015 remains, the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer would increase to 3.62 million, 153.96/100 000 and 8.92% by 2030, respectively. If the risk factor exposure control level meets the requirement, the probability of premature mortality from cancer in people aged 30-70 years would drop to 7.57% by 2030. Conclusions: The control of risk factor exposure will play an important role in reducing deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. But more efforts are needed to achieve the goals of Health China Action.
Adult ; Aged ; China/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; Mortality, Premature ; Neoplasms/epidemiology* ; Risk Factors

Objective: To forecast the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China by 2030 and evaluate the effectiveness of controlling risk factors based on the predictive model. Methods: Based on the relationship between the death of COPD and exposure to risk factors and the theory of comparative risk assessment, we used the estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD2015) for China, targets for controlling risk factors, and proportion change model to project the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases by 2030 in different scenarios and to evaluate the impact of controlling the included risk factors to the disease burden of COPD in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposure to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued, the number of deaths and the mortality for COPD would be 1.06 million and 73.85 per 100 000 population in China by 2030, respectively, with an increase of 15.81% and 10.69% compared to those in 2015. Compared to 2015, the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease by 38.88%, and the premature mortality would reduce by 52.73% by 2030. If the smoking rate and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentration separately achieve their control targets by 2030, there would be 0.34 and 0.27 million deaths that could be avoided compared to the predicted numbers based on the natural trends in exposure to risk factors and the probability of premature death would reduce to 0.59% and 0.52%, respectively. If the control targets of all included risk factors were achieved by 2030, a total of 0.53 million deaths would be averted, and the probability of premature death would decrease to 0.44%. Conclusions: If the exposures to risk factors continued as showed from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality for COPD would increase by 2030 compared to 2015, and the standardized mortality and the probability of premature death would decrease significantly, which would achieve the targets of preventing and controlling COPD. If the exposure to the included risk factors all achieved the targets by 2030, the burden of COPD would be reduced, suggesting that the control of tobacco use and air pollution should be enhanced to prevent and control COPD.
Air Pollutants/analysis* ; Air Pollution/prevention & control* ; China/epidemiology* ; Cost of Illness ; Environmental Exposure ; Humans ; Particulate Matter/analysis* ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/prevention & control* ; Risk Factors

It is the core of the development for Chinese patent medicine enterprises to cultivate large varieties of Chinese patent medicine, and the selection of potential "seed" products is the prerequisite for the cultivation strategy. By constructing the evaluation model from multiple dimensions of value and risk, we can conduct specialized evaluation of Chinese patent medicines to effectively, professionally and objectively select the "seed" products with large variety cultivation potential. In this paper, the establishment of a multidimensional evaluation system would be discussed from the aspects of drug naming and prescription composition, safety risk and supply guarantee of raw materials and medicinal materials, competition situation, access to policy catalogue, scientific and technological support, clinical evidence and recognition, systematical and standardized collection of information on product instructions, quality standards, policy catalogue, scientific and technological literature, market competition and clinical application of Chinese patent medicines. Through the objective evaluation index and the range of objective index, the multi-dimensional evaluation model on values and risks of Chinese patent medicine products was discussed. Based on this model, a batch of Chinese patent medicine products can be quickly and comprehensively analyzed, and quantitative comparison can be formed among different types and fields of products. According to the evaluation results of the model and the comprehensive evaluation of experts, high-quality "seed" products can be selec-ted, laying a solid foundation for the next step of large variety cultivation. With use of this model, we can further clarify the external competitive advantages and internal priority levels of each product, and provide support for enterprises to optimize product structure and improve product strategic layout.
China ; Drugs, Chinese Herbal/adverse effects* ; Medicine, Chinese Traditional ; Nonprescription Drugs/adverse effects* ; Quality Control

BACKGROUND: Shenyankangfu Tablet (SYKFT) is a Chinese patent medicine that has been used widely to decrease proteinuria and the progression of chronic kidney disease. OBJECTIVE: This trial compared the efficacy and safety of SYKFT, for the control of proteinuria in primary glomerulonephritis patients, against the standard drug, losartan potassium. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTION: This was a multicenter, double-blind, randomized, controlled clinical trial. Primary glomerulonephritis patients, aged 18-70 years, with blood pressure ≤ 140/90 mmHg, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥ 45 mL/min per 1.73 m MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was change in the 24-hour proteinuria level, after 48 weeks of treatment. RESULTS: A total of 735 participants were enrolled. The percent decline of urine protein quantification in the SYKFT group after 48 weeks was 8.78% ± 2.56% (P = 0.006) more than that in the losartan 50 mg group, which was 0.51% ± 2.54% (P = 1.000) less than that in the losartan 100 mg group. Compared with the losartan potassium 50 mg group, the SYKFT plus losartan potassium 50 mg group had a 13.39% ± 2.49% (P < 0.001) greater reduction in urine protein level. Compared with the losartan potassium 100 mg group, the SYKFT plus losartan potassium 100 mg group had a 9.77% ± 2.52% (P = 0.001) greater reduction in urine protein. With a superiority threshold of 15%, neither was statistically significant. eGFR, serum creatinine and serum albumin from the baseline did not change statistically significant. The average change in TCM syndrome score between the patients who took SYKFT (-3.00 [-6.00, -2.00]) and who did not take SYKFT (-2.00 [-5.00, 0]) was statistically significant (P = 0.003). No obvious adverse reactions were observed in any group. CONCLUSION: SYKFT decreased the proteinuria and improved the TCM syndrome scores of primary glomerulonephritis patients, with no change in the rate of decrease in the eGFR. SYKFT plus losartan potassium therapy decreased proteinuria more than losartan potassium therapy alone. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT02063100 on ClinicalTrials.gov.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the fourth cause of cancer death in China. We aimed to provide national and subnational estimates and changes of CRC premature mortality burden during 2005-2020. METHODS: Data from multi-source on the basis of the national surveillance mortality system were used to estimate mortality and years of life lost (YLL) of CRC in the Chinese population during 2005-2020. Estimates were generated and compared for 31 provincial-level administrative divisions in China. RESULTS: Estimated CRC deaths increased from 111.41 thousand in 2005 to 178.02 thousand in 2020; age-standardized mortality rate decreased from 10.01 per 100,000 in 2005 to 9.68 per 100,000 in 2020. Substantial reduction in CRC premature mortality burden, as measured by age-standardized YLL rate, was observed with a reduction of 10.20% nationwide. Marked differences were observed in the geographical patterns of provincial units, and they appeared to be obvious in areas with higher economic development. Population aging was the dominant driver which contributed to the increase in CRC deaths, followed by population growth and age-specific mortality change. CONCLUSIONS Substantial discrepancies were observed in the premature mortality burden of CRC across China. Targeted considerations were needed to promote a healthy lifestyle, expand cost-effective CRC early screening and diagnosis, and improve medical treatment to reduce CRC mortality among high-risk populations and regions with inadequate healthcare resources.
China/epidemiology* ; Colorectal Neoplasms ; Humans

Objective:To prepare Periplaneta americana thermosensitive hydrogel and investigate its effect on wound healing in diabetic rats. Method:Taking N-isopropylacrylamide (NIPAM) and acrylic acid (AAc) as monomers, thermosensitive poly(NIPAM-co-AAc) [P(NIPAM-co-AAc)] polymeric material was prepared by free radical polymerization, then thermoresponsive copolymer P(NIPAM-co-AAc)-g-HA was synthesized by conjugating P(NIPAM-co-AAc) to hyaluronic acid (HA). The structure and lower critical solution temperature (LCST) of the graft copolymer were characterized by proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (¹H-NMR) and ultraviolet spectrophotometry (UV). P. americana thermosensitive hydrogel was prepared by dialysis method, and it was characterized by scanning electron microscope (SEM), rotation rheometer and thermogravimetric analyzer to observe section structure, rheological properties and thermal stability. Differential scanning calorimetry, X-ray diffraction and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy were employed to identify the inclusion of P(NIPAM-co-AAc)-g-HA temperature sensitive material for P. americana extract, and to investigate the effect of P. americana thermosensitive hydrogel on wound healing in diabetic rats, and the rate of wound healing was calculated by Image-Pro Plus 6.0 software. Hematoxylin-eosin (HE) and Masson staining were used to observe the pathological changes of the wounds of rats in each group. Result:P(NIPAM-co-AAc)-g-HA temperature sensitive material was successfully synthesized, its LCST was between 29 ℃ and 31 ℃, it had a dense and uniform porous structure and could uniformly include P. americana extract. Pharmacodynamic studies showed that P. americana thermosensitive hydrogel group had the best effect on promoting wound healing, its infiltration degree of inflammatory cells was significantly reduced, collagen and fibroblasts arranged neatly and compactly, and the density of neovascularization was significantly increased by comparing with the model group. Conclusion:P. americana thermosensitive hydrogel can effectively promote wound healing of diabetic rats and overcome the shortage of marketed P. americana liquid preparations, this paper can provide a reference for the development of P. americana extract preparations to promote wound healing in diabetic patients.