1.Cost-utility analysis of anlotinib combined with penpulimab in first-line treatment of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma
Wenying YAN ; Na YANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Xinyue TAO ; Shengnan GAO ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(3):344-349
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of anlotinib combined with penpulimab versus sorafenib as first- line treatment for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) from the perspective of China’s healthcare system. METHODS Based on data from the APOLLO study, a partitioned survival model was established with a 21-day model cycle to simulate patient survival status over 10 years under anlotinib combined with penpulimab regimen or sorafenib monotherapy. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was used as the core evaluation parameter to assess the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of different treatment regimens. Using 3 times China’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 (287 247 yuan/QALY) as the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold, cost-utility analysis was performed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the treatment regimens. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the robustness of the baseline analysis conclusion. Scenario analysis was performed to consider the impact of anlotinib and penpulimab assistance programs on the results; the price reduction of penpulimab to ensure the cost-effectiveness of the combination regimen was examined under varying WTP thresholds (specifically, 1, 2, and 3 times China’s per capita GDP in 2024). RESULTS The baseline analysis revealed that the ICER of anlotinib combined with penpulimab regimen relative to the sorafenib regimen was 338 611.20 yuan/QALY, which exceeded the WTP threshold set in this study. Univariate sensitivity analysis indicated that the utility value of progression free survival and penpulimab price significantly influenced the baseline analysis results. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis validated the robustness of the baseline results. The results of scenario analysis indicated that when considering the assistance programs for anlotinib and penpulimab, the obtained ICER values were all below the WTP threshold set at 3 times China’s per capita GDP in 2024. When the price of penpulimab was reduced by 58%, 35%, and 13%, the ICER values were below the WTP threshold, which was 1, 2 and 3 times the per capita GDP of China in 2024, respectively. CONCLUSIONS From the perspective of China’s healthcare system, anlotinib combined with penpulimab regimen for first-line treatment of uHCC lacks cost-effectiveness compared to sorafenib regimen. However, this conclusion would be reversed if the anlotinib and penpulimab assistance programs are taken into account or if the price of penpulimab is reduced by more than 13% and above.
2.Therapeutic efficacy of extracorporeal shock wave therapy in the upper trapezius muscle area combined with exercise control training in patients with chronic non-specific neck pain
Haojing LI ; Xin WANG ; Chenglin SONG ; Shengnan ZHANG ; Yunxin CHEN
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(5):1162-1170
BACKGROUND:The incidence rate of chronic non-specific neck pain is high and the etiology is unknown.Myofascial pain and deep cervical flexor atrophy are the key factors.Extracorporeal shockwave therapy can improve microcirculation,relieve local pain,and delay the degenerative development of the cervical spine,while motion control training can significantly improve neck muscle strength and endurance and reduce neck pain.However,both methods have limited effectiveness when applied individually.OBJECTIVE:To explore the therapeutic efficacy of extracorporeal shock wave intervention combined with motion control training at the upper trapezius muscle on chronic non-specific neck pain.METHODS:Forty-two patients with chronic non-specific neck pain recruited from Shenyang Sport University were randomly divided into three groups:a shock wave group(n=14),in which extracorporeal shockwave intervention at the upper trapezius muscle was given for 10-15 minutes,once a week for 4 weeks;a training group(n=14),in which motion control training was given for 40-50 minutes,three times a week for 4 weeks;and a combination group(n=14),in which extracorporeal shockwave intervention at the upper trapezius muscle combined with motion control training was performed for 4 weeks.Patients were assessed for pain intensity,cervical spine function,upper trapezius muscle thickness,hemodynamic parameters,and serum interleukin 6 and tumor necrosis factor α levels before intervention,1 week and 4 weeks after intervention.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Compared with the pre-intervention period,the visual analogue scale scores and neck disability index in the three groups were lower after 1 and 4 weeks of intervention(P<0.05),and the visual analogue scale scores and neck disability index in the combination group were lower than those of the shock wave group and the training group(P<0.05).(2)Compared with the pre-intervention period,the upper trapezius thickness increased in the training group and the combination group after 4 weeks of intervention(P<0.05);the upper trapezius thickness was greater in the combination group than in the shock wave group and the training group after 4 weeks of intervention(P<0.05).(3)The shock wave group and the combination group had an increase in the peak systolic velocity of the ascending segment of the transverse carotid artery(P<0.05)and a decrease in the resistance index(P<0.05)after 1 and 4 weeks of intervention,while the training group showed an increase in the peak systolic velocity of the ascending segment of the transverse carotid artery(P<0.05)and a decrease in the resistance index(P<0.05)after 4 weeks of intervention.The peak systolic velocity of the ascending segment of the transverse carotid artery in the combination group was higher(P<0.05)and the resistance index was lower(P<0.05)than those in the shockwave group and the training group after 1 and 4 weeks of intervention.(4)Compared with the pre-intervention period,the levels of interleukin 6 and tumor necrosis factor α were reduced in the shock wave and combination groups after 1 and 4 weeks of intervention(P<0.05),and in the training group after 4 weeks of intervention(P<0.05).After 1 and 4 weeks of intervention,the levels of interleukin 6 and tumor necrosis factor α were lower in the combination group than in the shock wave group and the training group(P<0.05).To conclude,extracorporeal shock wave combined with motion control training for chronic non-specific neck pain significantly reduces pain and improves neck function,and the mechanism of action may be to promote the blood flow velocity at the trigger point,reduce blood flow resistance,reduce the serum levels of interleukin 6 and tumor necrosis factor α,and increase the thickness of the upper trapezius muscle.
3.Acacetin Ameliorates Hyperuricemia by Regulating Uric Acid Transporter and NF-κB/NLRP3 Signaling Pathway
Xuanxia WU ; Juan BU ; YELEDAN·MAHAN ; Shengnan ZHANG ; Xiaoling ZHANG ; Ling ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(1):191-198
ObjectiveTo investigate the uric acid-lowering effects and mechanisms of acacetin on hyperuricemia (HUA) in mice. MethodsOteracil potassium and adenine were used to establish the mouse model of HUA. Male Kunming mice (n=48) were randomized into six groups: control, model, low-dose (12.5 mg·kg-1) acacetin, medium-dose (25 mg·kg-1) acacetin, high-dose (50 mg·kg-1) acacetin, and allopurinol (10 mg·kg-1). Each group received continuous gavage administration for 21 days. An automatic biochemical analyzer was used to measure the levels of uric acid (UA), creatinine (Cr), urea nitrogen (BUN), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST). Additionally, the activity of xanthine oxidase (XOD) in the liver and the levels of tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, interleukin (IL)-1β, and IL-18 in the serum were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Pathological changes in the renal tissue were observed by hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining. Western blot was employed to determine the levels of glucose transporter 9 (GLUT9), urate transporter 1 (URAT1), phospho-NF-κB p65 (p-NF-κB p65), and nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain-like receptor pyrin domain-containing 3 (NLRP3) in the renal tissue. ResultsCompared with the control group, the model group showed elevated levels of UA, Cr, BUN, ALT, and AST, increased activity of XOD in the liver(P<0.01), raised levels of TNF-α, IL-1β and IL-18 in the serum(P<0.01), and significantly up-regulated expression of GLUT9, URAT1, p-NF-κB p65, and NLRP3 in the renal tissue(P<0.01). Compared with the model group, acacetin reduced the UA level in a dose-dependent manner, significantly improved liver and kidney functions, decreased the XOD activity in the liver, ameliorated the pathological changes in the renal tissue, down-regulated the expression of GLUT9, URAT1, p-NF-κB p65 and NLRP3 in the renal tissue(P<0.01), and lowered the levels of TNF-α, IL-1β, and IL-18 in the serum(P<0.01). ConclusionAcacetin can ameliorate HUA by decreasing uric acid production, increasing uric acid excretion, and inhibiting the NF-κB/NLRP3 signaling pathway. Therefore, acacetin may be a potential drug for the treatment of HUA.
4.Cost-utility analysis of amivantamab combined with lazertinib in the first-line treatment of EGFR-mutated advanced NSCLC
Ran LIU ; Shengnan GAO ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Congxin LI ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(5):633-638
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of amivantamab combined with lazertinib (hereinafter referred to as “AL”) regimen as first-line treatment for EGFR -mutated advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) from the perspective of China’s healthcare system. METHODS A partitioned survival model was established based on updated data from the MARIPOSA study, with a 10-year time horizon and 28-day cycles. The primary outcome index was quality adjusted life year (QALY), and the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was set at three times China’s per capita GDP in 2024 (287 247 yuan/QALY). Cost-utility analysis was used to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of AL regimen versus osimertinib monotherapy regimen as first-line treatment for EGFR -mutated advanced NSCLC. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test model robustness. Scena rio analyses were conducted to explore the impact of utility values for different health states on the outcomes and determine the required price reductions of amivantamab and lazertinib to achieve cost-effectiveness. RESULTS Compared with the osimertinib monotherapy regimen, the ICER for the AL regimen as first-line treatment for advanced EGFR -mutated NSCLC was 2 062 096.15 yuan/QALY, significantly exceeding the WTP threshold established in this study. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed that the utility value of progression-free survival state and the price of amivantamab were the primary factors influencing the ICER. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that the AL regimen only became cost-effective when the WTP threshold was set at 2 050 000 yuan/QALY. Scenario analysis indicated that altering the utility value still rendered the AL regimen non-cost-effective. When amivantamab (350 mg) prices decreased by 80%, 85%, and 90% respectively, lazertinib (80 mg) prices would need to decrease by 95.97%, 40.63%, 5.29%, respectively. This would enable the AL regimen’s ICER to consistently fall within the WTP threshold established in this study. CONCLUSIONS At the WTP threshold established in this study, the AL regimen does not demonstrate cost-effectiveness for first-line treatment of advanced EGFR -mutated NSCLC compared to the osimertinib monotherapy regimen. Significant price reductions for both drugs would be required to alleviate the financial burden on patients.
5.Pharmacoeconomic evaluation of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant in the second-line treatment of HR+/HER2− locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer
Ran LIU ; Shengnan GAO ; Congxin LI ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Yue WANG ; Ziyi LIU ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(8):1033-1038
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant as second-line treatment for patients with hormone receptor-positive(HR+)/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2–) locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer, within the context of the Chinese healthcare system. METHODS A partitioned survival model was established based on the CULMATE-1 study, with a simulation time horizon set at 15 years and a cycle length of 28 days. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant versus fulvestrant monotherapy as second-line treatment for HR+/HER2– breast cancer was calculated. One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed to assess the robustness of the model. Meanwhile, scenario analysis of culmerciclib price reduction was conducted; the required price reduction and price to reach the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold in this study were calculated. RESULTS The results of the base-case analysis indicated that, compared with the fulvestrant monotherapy regimen, culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant yielded an additional 0.823 quality-adjusted life year (QALY), with a corresponding ICER of 371 696.26 yuan/QALY, which exceeded the WTP threshold (199 330 yuan/QALY). The results of the univariate sensitivity analysis indicated that the cost of culmerciclib, the discount rate, the utility values for progression disease and progression free survival status were significant factors influencing the ICER; both the univariate sensitivity analysis and the probabilistic sensitivity analysis validated the robustness of the model results. Scenario analysis indicated that when the price of culmerciclib was reduced by 30%, 55% and 85% respectively, the corresponding ICER values fell below 3, 2, and 1 times China’s per capita GDP in 2025, with the probability of cost-effectiveness being 3.00%, 94.90%, 100%. When the cost of culmerciclib (60 mg) was reduced by 52.6% to 50.96 yuan, the ICER value met the WTP threshold established in this study. CONCLUSIONS When the WTP threshold is set at twice China’s per capita GDP in 2025, second-line treatment with culmerciclib combined with fulvestrant for HR+/HER2– locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer does not exhibit cost-effectiveness advantage over fulvestrant monotherapy. Therefore, a reasonable price reduction is required to alleviate the financial burden on patients.
6.Phenotypic heterogeneity and management strategies for two brothers with XIAP deficiency syndrome.
Hui HU ; Shengnan WU ; Kai CHEN ; Jingbo SHAO ; Ting ZHANG ; Yongmei XIAO
Chinese Journal of Medical Genetics 2026;43(2):123-128
OBJECTIVE:
To summarize the clinical features and management of two brothers affected with X-linked inhibitor of apoptosis protein (XIAP) deficiency.
METHODS:
This study retrospectively analyzed the clinical presentations, treatment, and follow-up of two brothers with XIAP deficiency diagnosed at Shanghai Children's Hospital in 2020, and summarized similar cases recorded in databases such as PubMed, Wanfang, Chinese Medical Association Journals, and WIP from January 2006 to November 2024. This study was approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of our hospital (Ethics No.: 2025R128-E01).
RESULTS:
Patient 1 was the younger brother, who presented at 8 years of age with growth retardation, folliculitis, erythema nodosum, and perineal abscess. Sequencing revealed that he has carried a hemizygous c.566T>C (p.Leu189Pro) variant of the XIAP gene, which was inherited from his mother. He was allergic to infliximab treatment and underwent allogeneic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) in January 2021. During a follow-up of 3 years and 10 months post-transplantation, he showed no gastrointestinal symptoms and had a good outcome. Patient 2 was the elder brother, who presented at 10 years and 6 months of age with growth retardation, rash, and anal fistula. Genetic testing revealed the same variant. He was treated with oral azathioprine but did not have regular follow-ups. At 14-years-and-6-months of age, he had developed severe gastrointestinal infection and hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis, which was alleviated after treatment with antibiotics, glucocorticoids, immunoglobulin, and rituximab. He is currently being prepared for HSCT. A total of 13 publications were retrieved, which involved 64 patients from 23 families, with 23 different variants identified. The main clinical manifestations included splenomegaly (34 cases, 53.1%), hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (27 cases, 42.2%), and inflammatory bowel disease or colitis (20 cases, 31.8%). There were significant phenotypic differences among patients from the same family. Thirteen patients (20.3%) underwent HSCT, with a survival rate of 61.5%.
CONCLUSION
For male children with early onset, poor treatment response, especially those with unexplained splenomegaly and IBD-like symptoms, early genetic testing is recommended. HSCT is a safe and effective treatment for XIAP deficiency. For patients with developmental delay, early onset, and severe IBD phenotype, early transplantation is recommended.
Humans
;
Male
;
X-Linked Inhibitor of Apoptosis Protein/deficiency*
;
Child
;
Genetic Diseases, X-Linked/therapy*
;
Phenotype
;
Siblings
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation
7.Therapeutic efficacy of extracorporeal shock wave therapy in the upper trapezius muscle area combined with exercise control training in patients with chronic non-specific neck pain
Haojing LI ; Xin WANG ; Chenglin SONG ; Shengnan ZHANG ; Yunxin CHEN
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(5):1162-1170
BACKGROUND:The incidence rate of chronic non-specific neck pain is high and the etiology is unknown.Myofascial pain and deep cervical flexor atrophy are the key factors.Extracorporeal shockwave therapy can improve microcirculation,relieve local pain,and delay the degenerative development of the cervical spine,while motion control training can significantly improve neck muscle strength and endurance and reduce neck pain.However,both methods have limited effectiveness when applied individually.OBJECTIVE:To explore the therapeutic efficacy of extracorporeal shock wave intervention combined with motion control training at the upper trapezius muscle on chronic non-specific neck pain.METHODS:Forty-two patients with chronic non-specific neck pain recruited from Shenyang Sport University were randomly divided into three groups:a shock wave group(n=14),in which extracorporeal shockwave intervention at the upper trapezius muscle was given for 10-15 minutes,once a week for 4 weeks;a training group(n=14),in which motion control training was given for 40-50 minutes,three times a week for 4 weeks;and a combination group(n=14),in which extracorporeal shockwave intervention at the upper trapezius muscle combined with motion control training was performed for 4 weeks.Patients were assessed for pain intensity,cervical spine function,upper trapezius muscle thickness,hemodynamic parameters,and serum interleukin 6 and tumor necrosis factor α levels before intervention,1 week and 4 weeks after intervention.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)Compared with the pre-intervention period,the visual analogue scale scores and neck disability index in the three groups were lower after 1 and 4 weeks of intervention(P<0.05),and the visual analogue scale scores and neck disability index in the combination group were lower than those of the shock wave group and the training group(P<0.05).(2)Compared with the pre-intervention period,the upper trapezius thickness increased in the training group and the combination group after 4 weeks of intervention(P<0.05);the upper trapezius thickness was greater in the combination group than in the shock wave group and the training group after 4 weeks of intervention(P<0.05).(3)The shock wave group and the combination group had an increase in the peak systolic velocity of the ascending segment of the transverse carotid artery(P<0.05)and a decrease in the resistance index(P<0.05)after 1 and 4 weeks of intervention,while the training group showed an increase in the peak systolic velocity of the ascending segment of the transverse carotid artery(P<0.05)and a decrease in the resistance index(P<0.05)after 4 weeks of intervention.The peak systolic velocity of the ascending segment of the transverse carotid artery in the combination group was higher(P<0.05)and the resistance index was lower(P<0.05)than those in the shockwave group and the training group after 1 and 4 weeks of intervention.(4)Compared with the pre-intervention period,the levels of interleukin 6 and tumor necrosis factor α were reduced in the shock wave and combination groups after 1 and 4 weeks of intervention(P<0.05),and in the training group after 4 weeks of intervention(P<0.05).After 1 and 4 weeks of intervention,the levels of interleukin 6 and tumor necrosis factor α were lower in the combination group than in the shock wave group and the training group(P<0.05).To conclude,extracorporeal shock wave combined with motion control training for chronic non-specific neck pain significantly reduces pain and improves neck function,and the mechanism of action may be to promote the blood flow velocity at the trigger point,reduce blood flow resistance,reduce the serum levels of interleukin 6 and tumor necrosis factor α,and increase the thickness of the upper trapezius muscle.
8.Cost-effectiveness analysis of onradivir and oseltamivir for the treatment of influenza A in adults
Yongzan ZHANG ; Shengnan GAO ; Xianying WANG ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(12):1579-1583
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of onradivir versus oseltamivir in the treatment of influenza A in adults from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system. METHODS Based on data from a phase Ⅲ clinical trial (NCT04683406), a decision tree model was constructed to simulate the efficacy and cost of using onradivir versus oseltamivir in treating adult patients with influenza A, with a cycle length of 5 days and a simulation period of 29 days. The two drug prices correspond to the median listing prices published by Yaozhi Network and the national negotiated prices. Patient characteristics and influenza utility values were derived from the phase Ⅲ clinical trial of onradivir, and medical costs and complication utility values were sourced from published literature. Quality-adjusted life year(QALY) was used as an effect indicator, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio(ICER) of onradivir versus oseltamivir was calculated, using China’s per capita disposable income in 2025 (43 377 yuan) as the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the results. One-way and probabilistic analyses were performed to verify the robustness of the results. RESULTS Compared with the oseltamivir regimen, the onradivir regimen yielded an incremental 0.000 67 QALY with direct medical cost savings of 12.41 yuan, thus being a dominant strategy. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that the utility values on day 15 of oseltamivir treatment, the incidence of influenza pneumonia in the oseltamivir group and the costs of the two drugs significantly affected the results. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that at the pre-specified WTP threshold, onradivir had a 70.6% probability of being cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS At a WTP threshold set at the 2025 per capita disposable income of China, compared with oseltamivir, onradivir can improve the health outcomes of adult patients with influenza A and reduce costs, demonstrating greater cost-effectiveness.
9.Quality evaluation of Mongolian medicine Sendeng-4 based on qualitative and quantitative analysis combined with chemical pattern recognition
Fengye ZHOU ; Jun LI ; Qian ZHANG ; Rongjie LI ; Wei ZHANG ; Jing LIU ; Fang WANG ; Shengnan LI
China Pharmacy 2025;36(9):1040-1045
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the quality of Mongolian medicine Sendeng-4 based on qualitative and quantitative analysis combined with chemical pattern recognition, in order to provide the reference for its quality control. METHODS The chemical components in Sendeng-4 were analyzed qualitatively by HPLC-Q-Exactive-MS. The contents of 16 components (methyl gallate, ethyl gallate, epicatechin, dihydromyricetin, genipin-1-O-β-D-gentiobioside, caffeic acid, catechin, corilagin, deacetylasperulosidic acid methyl ester, rutin, geniposide, luteolin, myricetin, quercetin, ferulic acid, and toosendanin) in 15 batches of Sendeng-4 (sample S1-S15) were quantitatively analyzed by HPLC-MS/MS. Cluster analysis (CA), principal component analysis (PCA), and orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis were conducted and variable importance projection (VIP) value greater than 1 was used as the index to screen the differential components. RESULTS A total of 73 chemical components were identified in Sendeng-4, including 20 flavonoids, 16 tannins, 14 organic acids, etc. According to the quantitative analysis, the results exhibited that the average contentsthe of above 16 components in 15 batches of Sendeng-4 were 3.683-7.730, 2.391-6.952, 2 275.538-4 377.491, 2 699.188-3 537.924, 858.266-1 377.393, 3.366-11.003, 140.624-315.683,414.629-978.334, 285.501-1 510.457, 27.799-48.325, 3 625.415-6 309.563, 0.506-0.656, 442.337-649.283, 47.093-59.736, 12.942-15.822, 127.738-326.649 μg/g, respectively. According to the results of CA and PCA, 15 batches of samples could be clustered into two categories: S1-S3, S5-S6, S9-S10 and S13 were clustered into one category; S4, S7-S8, S11-S12, S14-S15 were clustered into one category. VIP values of geniposide, epicatechin, deacetylasperulosidic acid methyl ester and genipin-1-O- β-D-gentiobioside were all greater than 1. CONCLUSIONS HPLC-Q-Exactive-MS and HPLC-MS/MS techniques are employed for the qualitative and quantitative analysis of Sendeng-4. Through chemical pattern recognition analysis, four differential components are identified: geniposide, epicatechin, deacetylasperulosidic acid methyl ester, and genipin-1-O-β-D-gentiobioside.
10.Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for acute myocardial infarction complicated by malignant ventricular arrhythmias
Dongli SONG ; Shengnan LIU ; Shuo WU ; Jie GAO ; Xiao ZHANG ; Weikai CUI ; Yifan WANG ; Jiali WANG ; Yuguo CHEN
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(7):923-931
Objective:To analyze the risk factors for in-hospital malignant ventricular arrhythmia (MVA) in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and to construct and validate a risk prediction model.Methods:This study was a retrospective cohort study. Patients aged≥18 years who were admitted to Qilu Hospital of Shandong University with a diagnosis of AMI and underwent coronary angiography (CAG) from May 2016 to March 2023 were selected, and the patients' clinical routine test indicators and CAG results were collected. Univariate and bidirectional stepwise logistic regression were used to screen out the risk factors for constructing the best prediction model. The prediction model was constructed by combining the results of multivariate logistic regression. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and ROC curve, calibration curve, and decision curve were drawn to evaluate the model. The nomogram was drawn to visualize the model, and the Bootstrap self-sampling method was used for internal validation. The ROC curve was drawn to evaluate the predictive performance of each risk factor and prediction model. Finally, a multicollinearity test was performed.Results:Among the 4 205 patients finally included in the study, 115 patients (2.735%) developed MVA during hospitalization. The predictive factors screened out included age (X1), diastolic blood pressure (X2), respiratory rate (X3), blood glucose (X4), serum potassium (X5), logarithmic NT-proBNP (X6), myocardial infarction type (NSTEMI=X7, unclassified=X8), J wave (X9), Killip grade (Ⅱ=X10, Ⅲ=X11, Ⅳ=X12), and the regression equation was ln(p/1-p)=-4.699+0.029×X1-0.012×X2+0.059×X3+0.148×X4-1.175×X5+0.866×X6-1.427×X7-0.475×X8+0.758×X9+0.294×X10+0.902×X11+1.815×X12. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the model was 0.855 (95% CI: 0.816-0.894), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test ( χ2=14.178, P=0.077) and the calibration curve showed that the predicted probability was consistent with the actual probability. The probability threshold of 0% to 65% had a better clinical net benefit. The area under the internal validation ROC curve (AUC) was 0.855, 95% CI: 0.813-0.891. The prediction performance of the nine variables was stronger than that of any single variable. There was no multicollinearity between the variables. Conclusions:Age, diastolic blood pressure, respiratory rate, blood glucose, serum potassium, NT-proBNP, type of AMI, J wave, and Killip class are forecasting indicator for in-hospital MVA in AMI. The risk prediction model based on the above factors has good predictive performance.

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