1.Cost-utility analysis of anlotinib combined with penpulimab in first-line treatment of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma
Wenying YAN ; Na YANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Xinyue TAO ; Shengnan GAO ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(3):344-349
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of anlotinib combined with penpulimab versus sorafenib as first- line treatment for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) from the perspective of China’s healthcare system. METHODS Based on data from the APOLLO study, a partitioned survival model was established with a 21-day model cycle to simulate patient survival status over 10 years under anlotinib combined with penpulimab regimen or sorafenib monotherapy. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) was used as the core evaluation parameter to assess the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of different treatment regimens. Using 3 times China’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 (287 247 yuan/QALY) as the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold, cost-utility analysis was performed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the treatment regimens. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the robustness of the baseline analysis conclusion. Scenario analysis was performed to consider the impact of anlotinib and penpulimab assistance programs on the results; the price reduction of penpulimab to ensure the cost-effectiveness of the combination regimen was examined under varying WTP thresholds (specifically, 1, 2, and 3 times China’s per capita GDP in 2024). RESULTS The baseline analysis revealed that the ICER of anlotinib combined with penpulimab regimen relative to the sorafenib regimen was 338 611.20 yuan/QALY, which exceeded the WTP threshold set in this study. Univariate sensitivity analysis indicated that the utility value of progression free survival and penpulimab price significantly influenced the baseline analysis results. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis validated the robustness of the baseline results. The results of scenario analysis indicated that when considering the assistance programs for anlotinib and penpulimab, the obtained ICER values were all below the WTP threshold set at 3 times China’s per capita GDP in 2024. When the price of penpulimab was reduced by 58%, 35%, and 13%, the ICER values were below the WTP threshold, which was 1, 2 and 3 times the per capita GDP of China in 2024, respectively. CONCLUSIONS From the perspective of China’s healthcare system, anlotinib combined with penpulimab regimen for first-line treatment of uHCC lacks cost-effectiveness compared to sorafenib regimen. However, this conclusion would be reversed if the anlotinib and penpulimab assistance programs are taken into account or if the price of penpulimab is reduced by more than 13% and above.
2.Cost-utility analysis of amivantamab combined with lazertinib in the first-line treatment of EGFR-mutated advanced NSCLC
Ran LIU ; Shengnan GAO ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Congxin LI ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2026;37(5):633-638
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of amivantamab combined with lazertinib (hereinafter referred to as “AL”) regimen as first-line treatment for EGFR -mutated advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) from the perspective of China’s healthcare system. METHODS A partitioned survival model was established based on updated data from the MARIPOSA study, with a 10-year time horizon and 28-day cycles. The primary outcome index was quality adjusted life year (QALY), and the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was set at three times China’s per capita GDP in 2024 (287 247 yuan/QALY). Cost-utility analysis was used to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of AL regimen versus osimertinib monotherapy regimen as first-line treatment for EGFR -mutated advanced NSCLC. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test model robustness. Scena rio analyses were conducted to explore the impact of utility values for different health states on the outcomes and determine the required price reductions of amivantamab and lazertinib to achieve cost-effectiveness. RESULTS Compared with the osimertinib monotherapy regimen, the ICER for the AL regimen as first-line treatment for advanced EGFR -mutated NSCLC was 2 062 096.15 yuan/QALY, significantly exceeding the WTP threshold established in this study. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed that the utility value of progression-free survival state and the price of amivantamab were the primary factors influencing the ICER. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that the AL regimen only became cost-effective when the WTP threshold was set at 2 050 000 yuan/QALY. Scenario analysis indicated that altering the utility value still rendered the AL regimen non-cost-effective. When amivantamab (350 mg) prices decreased by 80%, 85%, and 90% respectively, lazertinib (80 mg) prices would need to decrease by 95.97%, 40.63%, 5.29%, respectively. This would enable the AL regimen’s ICER to consistently fall within the WTP threshold established in this study. CONCLUSIONS At the WTP threshold established in this study, the AL regimen does not demonstrate cost-effectiveness for first-line treatment of advanced EGFR -mutated NSCLC compared to the osimertinib monotherapy regimen. Significant price reductions for both drugs would be required to alleviate the financial burden on patients.
3.Seasonal distribution characteristics, source analysis and health risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in PM2.5 in Lianyungang City in 2019-2023
Shengnan GAO ; Jinkun LI ; Li CHEN ; Zhengdong XYU ; Hongru ZHU ; Jian WANG ; Zhiyang YAO
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2025;36(1):65-69
Objective To study the seasonal distribution characteristics of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in PM2.5 in Lianyungang City, and analyze the sources of PAHs pollution, and to evaluate the health risks of PAHs in different seasons. Methods PM2.5 samples were collected regularly from January 2019 to December 2023, and 16 types of PAHs were determined by HPLC. Kruskal-Wallis H test was used to compare the concentrations of PM2.5 and PAHs in different years and seasons. The source of PAHs was analyzed by characteristic ratio and principal component analysis (PCA). Health risks were assessed using the BaP equivalent method and the incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) model. Results The annual exceedance rates of PM2.5 and BaP in Lianyungang showed a decreasing trend from 2019 to 2023. PM2.5, total PAHs and PAHs monomers (except Ace, Flu and Acy) all showed significant seasonal differences, with the highest concentration in winter (P<0.001). The average proportion of 4-ring PAHs was the highest and the average proportion of 2-ring PAHs was the lowest. The proportion of 5-6 ring PAHs was relatively high in winter and spring. PM2.5and PAHs were negatively correlated with temperature, relative humidity and precipitation, and were positively correlated with atmospheric pressure. PM2.5 was negatively correlated with wind speed, while some PAHs monomers were positively correlated with wind speed. The characteristic ratio and PCA results showed that the main sources of PAHs in Lianyungang City were mixed sources of road dust and vehicle emissions, oil pollution sources and biomass combustion sources. The results of ILCR showed that the highest risk was found in adults, with males slightly higher than females. In Lianyungang, the maximum value of ILCR in winter was more than 10-6 in people over 9 years old. Conclusion The main sources of PAHs in PM2.5 in Lianyungang City are mixed sources of road dust and vehicle emissions, oil pollution sources, and biomass combustion sources. Under the current exposure level of PAHs in PM2.5, residents have a certain potential carcinogenic risk.
4.Cost-utility analysis of benmelstobart plus anlotinib and chemotherapy as first-line treatment for extensive-stage small cell lung cancer
Bing FENG ; Ning GAO ; Shengnan GAO ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Ranran ZHANG ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2025;36(5):579-583
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-utility of benmelstobart combined with anlotinib and chemotherapy as first-line treatment for extensive-stage small cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) from the perspective of China’s healthcare system. METHODS Based on the data from the ETER 701 study, a partitioned survival model was constructed with a cycle of 3 weeks to simulate the total cost, quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over 10 years for patients with ES- SCLC treated with benmelstobart plus anlotinib and chemotherapy, or chemotherapy alone. One-way sensitivity analysis and probability sensitivity analysis were performed to verify the robustness of the simulation results. The willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was set at 3 times the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of China in 2023, which amounted to 268 074 yuan/QALY. RESULTS Compared with chemotherapy alone, benmelstobart combined with anlotinib and chemotherapy gained 0.438 QALY more at the cost of 403 505.55 yuan more, with an ICER of 922 031.37 yuan/QALY, which was higher than the WTP threshold set in this study. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that benmelstobart’s cost and utility value of the progression-free survival state had a greater impact on the ICER value; probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the model; only when the price of benmelstobart was reduced by 75.4%, the combined regimen would be cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS The first-line treatment of ES-SCLC with benmelstobart combined with anlotinib and chemotherapy is not cost-effective from the perspective of China’s healthcare system at present.
5.Calcium channel modulators in the treatment of diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain:a rapid health technology assessment
Ning GAO ; Bing FENG ; Shengnan GAO ; Ranran ZHANG ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2025;36(8):1001-1007
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the efficacy, safety and economics of calcium channel modulators in the treatment of diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain (DPNP), and provide evidence-based evidence for clinical drug selection and decision-making. METHODS PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, CNKI, Wanfang data, VIP net, CBM and official websites of foreign health technology assessment (HTA) institutions were systematically searched to collect HTA reports, systematic review/meta-analyses, and pharmacoeconomic studies of pregabalin, gabapentin, crisugabalin, and mirogabalin for the treatment of DPNP. The timeframe for all searches was from the inception to June 2024. After data extraction and quality assessment, the results of the included studies were analyzed descriptively. RESULTS A total of 16 articles were included, involving 1 HTA report, 7 systematic reviews/meta- analyses, and 8 pharmacoeconomic studies. No studies on crisugabalin were retrieved. Compared with placebo, both pregabalin and mirogabalin reduced end point pain scores and increased the proportion of patients with ≥30% and/or ≥50% reduction in pain scores. Pregabalin also improved patient global impression of change (PGIC). Gabapentin was similar to placebo in reducing end point pain scores and increasing the proportion of patients with ≥30% and/or ≥50% reduction in pain scores, but gabapentin improved PGIC of patients. Compared with pregabalin, mirogabalin was more effective in the treatment of pain. The safety of pregabalin and mirogabalin was similar, and compared with placebo, both pregabalin and mirogabalin increased the risk of common adverse reactions such as dizziness and somnolence. The safety of gabapentin was similar to placebo and duloxetine. Compared with duloxetine, pregabalin and gabapentin were not cost-effective. Compared with gabapentin, pregabalin was cost-effective. Mirogabalin was cost-effective, as compared with placebo and pregabalin. CONCLUSIONS Pregabalin and mirogabalin are effective in the treatment of DPNP, the efficacy of mirogabalin is better than pregabalin, and the safety is similar between them. The economic conclusions vary from country to country, pending a pharmacoeconomic study based on our population.
6.Research progress on oxidative stress mechanism and traditional Chinese medicine intervention in varicocele-induced infertility
Shengnan LI ; Hongyan CHEN ; Tengfei CHEN ; Boxian GAO ; Chongfu ZHONG
China Pharmacy 2025;36(12):1536-1541
Varicocele-induced infertility (VCI) is a common andrological disease in clinical practice. Oxidative stress represents the primary mechanism through which varicocele causes male infertility. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) treatment, characterized by its multi-target, multi-component, multi-system, and multi-pathway actions, has achieved favorable outcomes in the field of VCI treatment. This paper summarizes the underlying oxidative stress mechanism of VCI and the relevant signaling pathways involved. By reviewing the current research status on how monomers, active fractions, compound formulas, and related preparations of TCM can intervene in oxidative stress through the regulation of these signaling pathways to improve VCI, it is found that the nuclear factor-erythroid 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2) signaling pathway, the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling pathway, and the hypoxia-inducible factor-1α (HIF-1α) signaling pathway are closely related to the development of VCI. TCM monomers and active fractions (flavonoids from Cuscutae Semen, polysaccharides from Astragali Radix, curcumin, ginsenoside Rg1, hyperin and echinacoside), as well as compound formulas and related preparations of TCM (modified Dahuang zhechong granules, Shengjing huoxue formula, modified Tianxiong san, Tongjingling, Bushen huoxue formula, Mailuoshutong pill, Zishen yutai pill, Danhong tongjing formula) can alleviate oxidative stress, reduce lipid peroxidation damage, improve mitochondrial dysfunction, decrease sperm DNA fragmentation, and inhibit apoptosis by activating the Nrf2 signaling pathways and inhibiting the MAPK and HIF-1α signaling pathways, thereby improving reproductive function.
7.Cost-utility analysis of capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with aromatase inhibitor as first-line treatment for HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer
Ranran ZHANG ; Guoqiang LIU ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Shengnan GAO ; Ning GAO ; Bing FENG ; Ran LIU ; Qian LI
China Pharmacy 2025;36(15):1893-1898
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with aromatase inhibitor (AI) versus AI monotherapy as first-line treatment for hormone receptor-positive (HR+)/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2-) metastatic breast cancer, thereby providing evidence-based support for clinical therapeutic decision- making and healthcare policy formulation. METHODS Based on the MECCA trial, a partitioned survival model was constructed using a 4-week cycle length to simulate outcomes over patients’ lifetime. The model outputs included total costs, quality-adjusted life year (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Sensitivity analyses were performed to validate the robustness of base-case results, while scenario analyses examined the cost-effectiveness of both treatment strategies under 10-year, 20-year, and lifetime time horizons. RESULTS With the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold set at 1 times China’s 2024 per capita gross domestic product (GDP) (95 749 yuan/QALY), patients receiving capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with AI regimen gained incremental utility (0.66 QALYs) while incurring higher costs, with ICER of 27 684.85 yuan/QALY. Results of the one-way sensitivity analysis showed that factors with significant impacts on ICER included the cost discount rate, drug costs of the capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with AI group, utility value in the progression-free survival state, follow-up costs, and treatment costs in the subsequent stablephase. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that when the WTP threshold ≥49 250 yuan/QALY, the capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with AI regimen had a 100% probability of being cost-effective. Scenario analysis results demonstrated that capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with AI regimen was more cost-effective than the AI alone regimen across 10-year, 20-year, and lifetime study horizons. CONCLUSIONS Under the premise that the WTP threshold is set at 1 times China’s per capita GDP in 2024, capecitabine metronomic chemotherapy combined with AI regimen is more cost-effective than the AI alone regimen as the first-line treatment for HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer.
8.Cost-effectiveness analysis of sacituzumab tirumotecan versus single-agent chemotherapy in second-line and later-line treatment for metastatic triple-negative breast cancer
Ranran ZHANG ; Yuxi ZHANG ; Shengnan GAO ; Bing FENG ; Ning GAO ; Guoqiang LIU
China Pharmacy 2025;36(16):2024-2029
OBJECTIVE To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of sacituzumab tirumotecan (ST) versus chemotherapy treatment physician’s choice (TPC) as second-line and later-line treatment for metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (mTNBC) from the perspective of China’s healthcare system. METHODS A partitioned survival model was constructed based on the OptiTROP-Breast 01 trial, with a cycle length of 4 weeks and a time horizon of 10 years, applying a 5% discount rate. Quality adjusted life year (QALY) and costs were used as outcome measures, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of ST versus TPC for second-line and later-line treatment of mTNBC was calculated. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to validate the robustness of the base-case results. RESULTS At a willingness-to-pay threshold (WTP) of 3 times China’s 2024 per capita gross domestic product (GDP) (287 247 yuan/QALY), patients receiving ST gained incremental utility (0.42 QALY) at a higher cost, yielding an ICER of 205 562.07 yuan/QALY, which was lower than WTP, indicating that ST was more cost-effective compared to TPC. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed that key factors influencing the ICER included the utility value of progression-free survival and the price of ST. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis showed that the base-case results were robust. CONCLUSIONS From the perspective of China’s healthcare system, at a WTP of 3 times China’s per capita GDP, ST is more cost-effective than TPC as second-line and later-line treatment for mTNBC.
9.Exploration on Correlation Between Toxins Damaging Liver Collateral and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Based on Five-Circuit and Six-Qi Theory
Yu WANG ; Xue WANG ; Ming YANG ; Shengnan GAO ; Wenqi JIN ; Chunli PIAO
Journal of Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;42(6):1327-1333
Objective To explore the correlation between the pathogenesis of toxins damaging liver collateral and the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)based on the theory of five circuits and six qi.Methods A total of 986 patients with T2DM treated in the Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism at the Affiliated Hospital of Changchun University of Chinese Medicine from February 2019 to October 2023 were selected as the study subjects.The influences of circuit and qi indicators in the theory of five circuits and six qi on the constitutional characteristics of T2DM patients and the role of pathogenesis of toxins damaging liver collateral in the incidence of T2DM were investigated.Results(1)The five-circuit and six-qi analysis showed that the yearly circuit and sitian/zaiquan conditions had no significant effect on the constitutional characteristics of patients with T2DM(P>0.05).However,dominant circuit,guest circuit,dominant qi and guest qi significantly influenced the constitutional characteristics of patients with T2DM(P<0.05).For the distribution of circuit-qi indicators at birth among the 986 patients,dominant circuit was predominated by the terminal circuit of taiyang cold-water,guest circuit was characterized by deficient wood circuit or excessive water circuit,dominant qi was predominated by yangming dry-metal,and guest qi was characterized by taiyin damp-earth.(2)The correlation between the pathogenesis of toxins damaging liver collateral and the incidence of T2DM through comparative analysis revealed that the conveying and dispersing function of the liver plays a leading role in maintaining the body's yin-yang balance and ensuring free movement of qi,indicating that the critical role of toxins damaging liver collateral is the key to the incidence of diabetes.Conclusion Circuit-qi indicators have a certain influence on the constitutional characteristics of T2DM patients.The circuit-qi features at birth of the individuals prone to T2DM are as follows:dominant circuit predominated by the terminal circuit of taiyang cold-water,guest circuit characterized by deficient wood circuit or excessive water circuit,dominant qi being yangming dry-metal,and guest qi being taiyin damp-earth.Pathogenesis of toxins damaging liver collateral is closely related to the incidence of T2DM.Therefore,in treatment,the regulatory role of the liver should be emphasized,and liver-soothing herbs should be used based on syndrome differentiation,aiming for holistic treatment of the physique and the spirit and enhancing the therapeutic efficacy.The exploration will provide a new perspective and approach for the treatment of T2DM.
10.Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for acute myocardial infarction complicated by malignant ventricular arrhythmias
Dongli SONG ; Shengnan LIU ; Shuo WU ; Jie GAO ; Xiao ZHANG ; Weikai CUI ; Yifan WANG ; Jiali WANG ; Yuguo CHEN
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(7):923-931
Objective:To analyze the risk factors for in-hospital malignant ventricular arrhythmia (MVA) in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and to construct and validate a risk prediction model.Methods:This study was a retrospective cohort study. Patients aged≥18 years who were admitted to Qilu Hospital of Shandong University with a diagnosis of AMI and underwent coronary angiography (CAG) from May 2016 to March 2023 were selected, and the patients' clinical routine test indicators and CAG results were collected. Univariate and bidirectional stepwise logistic regression were used to screen out the risk factors for constructing the best prediction model. The prediction model was constructed by combining the results of multivariate logistic regression. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test and ROC curve, calibration curve, and decision curve were drawn to evaluate the model. The nomogram was drawn to visualize the model, and the Bootstrap self-sampling method was used for internal validation. The ROC curve was drawn to evaluate the predictive performance of each risk factor and prediction model. Finally, a multicollinearity test was performed.Results:Among the 4 205 patients finally included in the study, 115 patients (2.735%) developed MVA during hospitalization. The predictive factors screened out included age (X1), diastolic blood pressure (X2), respiratory rate (X3), blood glucose (X4), serum potassium (X5), logarithmic NT-proBNP (X6), myocardial infarction type (NSTEMI=X7, unclassified=X8), J wave (X9), Killip grade (Ⅱ=X10, Ⅲ=X11, Ⅳ=X12), and the regression equation was ln(p/1-p)=-4.699+0.029×X1-0.012×X2+0.059×X3+0.148×X4-1.175×X5+0.866×X6-1.427×X7-0.475×X8+0.758×X9+0.294×X10+0.902×X11+1.815×X12. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the model was 0.855 (95% CI: 0.816-0.894), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test ( χ2=14.178, P=0.077) and the calibration curve showed that the predicted probability was consistent with the actual probability. The probability threshold of 0% to 65% had a better clinical net benefit. The area under the internal validation ROC curve (AUC) was 0.855, 95% CI: 0.813-0.891. The prediction performance of the nine variables was stronger than that of any single variable. There was no multicollinearity between the variables. Conclusions:Age, diastolic blood pressure, respiratory rate, blood glucose, serum potassium, NT-proBNP, type of AMI, J wave, and Killip class are forecasting indicator for in-hospital MVA in AMI. The risk prediction model based on the above factors has good predictive performance.


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