1.Prognostic value of quantitative flow ratio measured immediately after percutaneous coronary intervention for chronic total occlusion.
Zheng QIAO ; Zhang-Yu LIN ; Qian-Qian LIU ; Rui ZHANG ; Chang-Dong GUAN ; Sheng YUAN ; Tong-Qiang ZOU ; Xiao-Hui BIAN ; Li-Hua XIE ; Cheng-Gang ZHU ; Hao-Yu WANG ; Guo-Feng GAO ; Ke-Fei DOU
Journal of Geriatric Cardiology 2025;22(4):433-442
BACKGROUND:
The clinical impact of post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) quantitative flow ratio (QFR) in patients treated with PCI for chronic total occlusion (CTO) was still undetermined.
METHODS:
All CTO vessels treated with successful anatomical PCI in patients from PANDA III trial were retrospectively measured for post-PCI QFR. The primary outcome was 2-year vessel-oriented composite endpoints (VOCEs, composite of target vessel-related cardiac death, target vessel-related myocardial infarction, and ischemia-driven target vessel revascularization). Receiver operator characteristic curve analysis was conducted to identify optimal cutoff value of post-PCI QFR for predicting the 2-year VOCEs, and all vessels were stratified by this optimal cutoff value. Cox proportional hazards models were employed to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% CI.
RESULTS:
Among 428 CTO vessels treated with PCI, 353 vessels (82.5%) were analyzable for post-PCI QFR. 31 VOCEs (8.7%) occurred at 2 years. Mean value of post-PCI QFR was 0.92 ± 0.13. Receiver operator characteristic curve analysis shown the optimal cutoff value of post-PCI QFR for predicting 2-year VOCEs was 0.91. The incidence of 2-year VOCEs in the vessel with post-PCI QFR < 0.91 (n = 91) was significantly higher compared with the vessels with post-PCI QFR ≥ 0.91 (n = 262) (22.0% vs. 4.2%, HR = 4.98, 95% CI: 2.32-10.70).
CONCLUSIONS
Higher post-PCI QFR values were associated with improved prognosis in the PCI practice for coronary CTO. Achieving functionally optimal PCI results (post-PCI QFR value ≥ 0.91) tends to get better prognosis for patients with CTO lesions.
2.Efficacy Analysis of Complete Pelvic Floor Peritoneal Reconstruction Technique in Orthotopic Neobladder Surgery after Total Cystectomy
Sheng LIU ; Fei YUAN ; Hongqing ZHOU ; Mingsheng LIU ; Donghuan ZOU ; Yu LI ; Guanyu CHEN ; Feng GUO
Journal of Kunming Medical University 2025;46(6):71-78
Objective To evaluate the efficacy of complete pelvic floor peritoneal reconstruction in reducing postoperative ileus incidence and accelerating recovery following laparoscopic radical cystectomy with orthotopic neobladder construction.Methods A retrospective study was conducted to select 62 patients who underwent the operation in Qujing Hospital Affiliated to Kunming Medical University from January 2017 to September 2024.According to whether complete pelvic floor peritoneal reconstruction was performed during the operation,they were divided into the conventional group(n=25)and the reconstruction group(n=37).Postoperative ileus rates and recovery parameters were compared to assess the clinical value of complete pelvic floor peritoneal reconstruction.Results The reconstruction group showed better postoperative recovery compared to the routine group:gastrointestinal function recovery time[3(2,4)d vs 4(3,5)d,P=0.032],abdominal drainage time[12(10,13.5)d vs 14(12,15)d,P=0.006],pelvic drainage time[12(9,13.5)d vs 14(11,16)d,P=0.015],postoperative hospital stay[18(15.5,26)d vs 25(17,30.5)d,P=0.016],and hospital expenses[(53,695.67±10,182.43)yuan vs(60,803.73±14,449.24)yuan,P=0.027].Postoperative nutritional markers,including total protein[(64.49±6.82)g/L vs.(61.56±4.03)g/L,P=0.038]and albumin[(36.08±5.29)g/L vs.(33.40±3.57)g/L,P=0.020],were higher in the reconstruction group.No significant difference was found in ileus incidence(44.00%vs.32.43%,P=0.355).Other parameters—baseline characteristics,postoperative globulin and prealbumin levels,gastric tube retention,stent/catheter removal time,and complications(anastomotic leakage,urinary fistula,wound infection)—showed no intergroup differences(P>0.05).Conclusion The application of complete pelvic floor peritoneal reconstruction technique in laparoscopic radical cystectomy with orthotonic neobladder provides better protection for the intestine,reduces surgical area adhesions,promotes gastrointestinal function recovery,shortens abdominal and pelvic drainage times,accelerates patient rehabilitation,reduces hospital stay and expenses.However,whether it can effectively reduce postoperative intestinal obstruction rates still requires more data and experimental verification.
3.Analysis of CVAI, TyG index and risk factors of hypertension among elderly people in Zhengxiangbai Banner community of Inner Mongolia
Yong GUO ; Tingting JIAO ; Zhigang ZHAN ; Weili SHENG ; Guihong ZHANG ; Sier A ; Tong ZOU
Chinese Journal of Geriatrics 2025;44(5):635-642
Objective:To evaluate the effects of the Chinese visceral adiposity index(CVAI)and the Triglyceride-Glucose(TyG)index on the risk of hypertension among the elderly in the Zhengxiangbai Banner community of Inner Mongolia.Methods:This study selected elderly individuals who underwent physical examinations at the community health service center in Zhengxiangbai Banner, Inner Mongolia, from January 2024 to July 2024 as the study population.Based on the diagnostic criteria for hypertension, participants were divided into hypertensive and non-hypertensive groups.Data on demographics, body mass index(BMI), waist circumference(WC), fasting blood glucose(FSG), and blood lipids were collected.The CVAI, TyG, Triglyceride Glucose-Body Waist Circumference(TyG-WC), and Triglyceride Glucose-Body Mass Index(TyG-BMI)were calculated.Subjects were categorized into quartiles(1st to 4th)based on CVAI, TyG, TyG-WC, and TyG-BMI.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was employed to explore the relationship between these indicators and the risk of hypertension in the elderly.Results:This study included a total of 3, 319 elderly subjects, comprising 1, 743 individuals in the hypertensive group and 1, 576 in the non-hypertensive group.Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that the fourth quartile of the CVAI was a risk factor for hypertension when compared to the first quartile.Additionally, the second, third, and fourth quartiles of the TyG-BMI were identified as risk factors for hypertension relative to the first quartile.The analysis of the correlation strength between various obesity indexes and hypertension revealed that CVAI, TyG-WC, and TyG-BMI were independently correlated with the risk of hypertension.Notably, TyG-BMI exhibited a stronger association with hypertension( OR=1.006, 95% CI: 1.004-1.008).ROC curve analysis demonstrated that TyG-BMI possessed superior predictive ability for hypertension, with an AUC of 0.587(95% CI: 0.568-0.607).Furthermore, Decision Curve Analysis(DCA)also indicated that TyG-BMI had enhanced predictive capability.Further stratification by gender revealed that TyG-BMI in elderly men was independently correlated with the risk of hypertension( P<0.001), while CVAI in elderly women was independently correlated with the risk of hypertension( P<0.05).ROC curve analysis indicated that TyG-BMI in elderly men had better predictive ability for hypertension(AUC=0.582, 95% CI: 0.554~0.610).The difference in AUC compared to CVAI was statistically significant( P<0.01).DCA analysis further confirmed that TyG-BMI exhibited superior predictive ability. Conclusions:Our findings suggest that both CVAI and TyG-BMI exhibit superior predictive value for hypertension, with TyG-BMI demonstrating a particularly strong predictive capability in elderly men.
4.Diagnosis and Treatment of a Case of Spironolactone-Associated Asymptomatic Hyperuricemia After Renal Transplantation
Yun XIAO ; Xiaoyu HAN ; Chao ZHENG ; Yu FU ; Hanbin XIONG ; Bin ZOU ; Baolin WANG ; Hua ZOU ; Chenglong YIN ; Zhengyao JIANG ; Sheng ZOU ; Anle DU ; Guohui LI ; Xiaohui GUO ; Lin ZHONG ; Jiake HE
Herald of Medicine 2025;44(10):1562-1565
Objective To explore the identification method,pathogenesis,clinical characteristics and individualized pharmacotherapy of asymptomatic hyperuricemia after renal transplantation.Methods The pharmacist was on duty at the organ transplant outpatient clinic.During this time,they analyzed and sorted out the medications,identified and differentiated a case of asymptomatic hyperuricemia related to spironolactone in a patient who had undergone a renal transplant,and provided comprehensive care throughout the entire process.Results The asymptomatic hyperuricemia in this patient might be associated with spironolactone,and the adverse reactions of the patient were alleviated by pharmacists through optimizing clinical treatment.Up to now,no hyperuricemia occurred.Conclusions Pharmacists are required to collaborate closely with clinicians to establish medication profiles for patients under long-term follow-up and to closely monitor and evaluate drug-related adverse reactions.Additionally,they should assess the renal function and immune status of transplant recipients promptly and formulate individualized treatment plans in order to enhance the long-term survival of both the transplanted kidneys and the recipients.
5.Analysis of CVAI, TyG index and risk factors of hypertension among elderly people in Zhengxiangbai Banner community of Inner Mongolia
Yong GUO ; Tingting JIAO ; Zhigang ZHAN ; Weili SHENG ; Guihong ZHANG ; Sier A ; Tong ZOU
Chinese Journal of Geriatrics 2025;44(5):635-642
Objective:To evaluate the effects of the Chinese visceral adiposity index(CVAI)and the Triglyceride-Glucose(TyG)index on the risk of hypertension among the elderly in the Zhengxiangbai Banner community of Inner Mongolia.Methods:This study selected elderly individuals who underwent physical examinations at the community health service center in Zhengxiangbai Banner, Inner Mongolia, from January 2024 to July 2024 as the study population.Based on the diagnostic criteria for hypertension, participants were divided into hypertensive and non-hypertensive groups.Data on demographics, body mass index(BMI), waist circumference(WC), fasting blood glucose(FSG), and blood lipids were collected.The CVAI, TyG, Triglyceride Glucose-Body Waist Circumference(TyG-WC), and Triglyceride Glucose-Body Mass Index(TyG-BMI)were calculated.Subjects were categorized into quartiles(1st to 4th)based on CVAI, TyG, TyG-WC, and TyG-BMI.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was employed to explore the relationship between these indicators and the risk of hypertension in the elderly.Results:This study included a total of 3, 319 elderly subjects, comprising 1, 743 individuals in the hypertensive group and 1, 576 in the non-hypertensive group.Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that the fourth quartile of the CVAI was a risk factor for hypertension when compared to the first quartile.Additionally, the second, third, and fourth quartiles of the TyG-BMI were identified as risk factors for hypertension relative to the first quartile.The analysis of the correlation strength between various obesity indexes and hypertension revealed that CVAI, TyG-WC, and TyG-BMI were independently correlated with the risk of hypertension.Notably, TyG-BMI exhibited a stronger association with hypertension( OR=1.006, 95% CI: 1.004-1.008).ROC curve analysis demonstrated that TyG-BMI possessed superior predictive ability for hypertension, with an AUC of 0.587(95% CI: 0.568-0.607).Furthermore, Decision Curve Analysis(DCA)also indicated that TyG-BMI had enhanced predictive capability.Further stratification by gender revealed that TyG-BMI in elderly men was independently correlated with the risk of hypertension( P<0.001), while CVAI in elderly women was independently correlated with the risk of hypertension( P<0.05).ROC curve analysis indicated that TyG-BMI in elderly men had better predictive ability for hypertension(AUC=0.582, 95% CI: 0.554~0.610).The difference in AUC compared to CVAI was statistically significant( P<0.01).DCA analysis further confirmed that TyG-BMI exhibited superior predictive ability. Conclusions:Our findings suggest that both CVAI and TyG-BMI exhibit superior predictive value for hypertension, with TyG-BMI demonstrating a particularly strong predictive capability in elderly men.
6.Diagnosis and Treatment of a Case of Spironolactone-Associated Asymptomatic Hyperuricemia After Renal Transplantation
Yun XIAO ; Xiaoyu HAN ; Chao ZHENG ; Yu FU ; Hanbin XIONG ; Bin ZOU ; Baolin WANG ; Hua ZOU ; Chenglong YIN ; Zhengyao JIANG ; Sheng ZOU ; Anle DU ; Guohui LI ; Xiaohui GUO ; Lin ZHONG ; Jiake HE
Herald of Medicine 2025;44(10):1562-1565
Objective To explore the identification method,pathogenesis,clinical characteristics and individualized pharmacotherapy of asymptomatic hyperuricemia after renal transplantation.Methods The pharmacist was on duty at the organ transplant outpatient clinic.During this time,they analyzed and sorted out the medications,identified and differentiated a case of asymptomatic hyperuricemia related to spironolactone in a patient who had undergone a renal transplant,and provided comprehensive care throughout the entire process.Results The asymptomatic hyperuricemia in this patient might be associated with spironolactone,and the adverse reactions of the patient were alleviated by pharmacists through optimizing clinical treatment.Up to now,no hyperuricemia occurred.Conclusions Pharmacists are required to collaborate closely with clinicians to establish medication profiles for patients under long-term follow-up and to closely monitor and evaluate drug-related adverse reactions.Additionally,they should assess the renal function and immune status of transplant recipients promptly and formulate individualized treatment plans in order to enhance the long-term survival of both the transplanted kidneys and the recipients.
7.Efficacy of partial nephrectomy in patients with localized renal carcinoma: a 20-year experience of 2 046 patients in a single center.
Xiang Peng ZOU ; Kang NING ; Zhi Ling ZHANG ; Long Bin XIONG ; Yu Lu PENG ; Zhao Hui ZHOU ; Yi Xin HUANG ; Xin LUO ; Ji Bin LI ; Pei DONG ; Sheng Jie GUO ; Hui HAN ; Fang Jian ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2023;61(5):395-402
Objectives: To analyze the long-term survival of patients with localized renal cell carcinoma after partical nephrectomy. Methods: The clinicopathological records and survival follow-up data of 2 046 patients with localized renal cell carcinoma, who were treated with partial nephrectomy from August 2001 to February 2021 in the Department of Urology, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, were retrospectively analyzed. There were 1 402 males and 644 females, aged (M(IQR)) 51 (19) years (range: 6 to 86 years). The primary end point of this study was cancer-specific survival. Survival curves were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and the difference test was performed by Log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis were fitted to determine factors associated with cancer-specific survival. Results: The follow-up time was 49.2 (48.0) months (range: 1 to 229 months), with 1 974 patients surviving and 72 dying. The median cancer-specific survival time has not yet been reached. The 5- and 10-year cancer specific survival rates were 97.0% and 91.2%, respectively. The 10-year cancer-specific survival rates for stage pT1a (n=1 447), pT1b (n=523) and pT2 (n=58) were 95.3%, 81.8%, and 81.7%, respectively. The 10-year cancer-specific survival rates of patients with nuclear grade 1 (n=226), 2 (n=1 244) and 3 to 4 (n=278) were 96.6%, 89.4%, and 85.5%, respectively. There were no significant differences in 5-year cancer-specific survival rates among patients underwent open, laparoscopic, or robotic surgery (96.7% vs. 97.1% vs. 97.5%, P=0.600). Multivariate analysis showed that age≥50 years (HR=3.93, 95%CI: 1.82 to 8.47, P<0.01), T stage (T1b vs. T1a: HR=3.31, 95%CI: 1.83 to 5.99, P<0.01; T2+T3 vs. T1a: HR=2.88, 95%CI: 1.00 to 8.28, P=0.049) and nuclear grade (G3 to 4 vs. G1: HR=2.81, 95%CI: 1.01 to 7.82, P=0.048) were independent prognostic factors of localized renal cell carcinoma after partial nephrectomy. Conclusions: The long-term cancer-specific survival rates of patients with localized renal cancer after partial nephrectomy are satisfactory. The type of operation (open, laparoscopic, or robotic) has no significant effect on survival. However, patients with older age, higher nuclear grade, and higher T stage have a lower cancer-specific survival rate. Grasping surgical indications, attaching importance to preoperative evaluation, perioperative management, and postoperative follow-up, could benefit achieving satisfactory long-term survival.
8.Establishment and validation of a novel nomogram to predict overall survival after radical nephrectomy.
Long Bin XIONG ; Xiang Peng ZOU ; Kang NING ; Xin LUO ; Yu Lu PENG ; Zhao Hui ZHOU ; Jun WANG ; Zhen LI ; Chun Ping YU ; Pei DONG ; Sheng Jie GUO ; Hui HAN ; Fang Jian ZHOU ; Zhi Ling ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2023;45(8):681-689
Objective: To establish a nomogram prognostic model for predicting the 5-, 10-, and 15-year overall survival (OS) of non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma patients managed with radical nephrectomy (RN), compare the modelled results with the results of pure pathologic staging, the Karakiewicz nomogram and the Mayo Clinic Stage, Size, Grade, and Necrosis (SSIGN) score commonly used in foreign countries, and stratify the patients into different prognostic risk subgroups. Methods: A total of 1 246 non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma patients managed with RN in Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC) from 1999 to 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to screen the variables that influence the prognosis for nomogram establishment, and the bootstrap random sampling was used for internal validation. The time-receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the calibration curve and the clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) were applied to evaluate the nomogram. The prediction efficacy of the nomogram and that of the pure pathologic staging, the Karakiewicz nomogram and the SSIGN score was compared through the area under the curve (AUC). Finally, patients were stratified into different risk subgroups according to our nomogram scores. Results: A total of 1 246 patients managed with RN were enrolled in this study. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age, smoking history, pathological nuclear grade, sarcomatoid differentiation, tumor necrosis and pathological T and N stages were independent prognostic factors for RN patients (all P<0.05). A nomogram model named SYSUCC based on these factors was built to predict the 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival rate of the participating patients. In the bootstrap random sampling with 1 000 iterations, all these factors occurred for more than 800 times as independent predictors. The Harrell's concordance index (C-index) of SYSUCC was higher compared with pure pathological staging [0.770 (95% CI: 0.716-0.823) vs 0.674 (95% CI: 0.621-0.728)]. The calibration curve showed that the survival rate as predicted by the SYSUCC model simulated the actual rate, while the clinical DCA showed that the SYSUCC nomogram has a benefit in certain probability ranges. In the ROC analysis that included 857 patients with detailed pathological nuclear stages, the nomogram had a larger AUC (5-/10-year AUC: 0.823/0.804) and better discriminating ability than pure pathological staging (5-/10-year AUC: 0.701/0.658), Karakiewicz nomogram (5-/10-year AUC: 0.772/0.734) and SSIGN score (5-/10-year AUC: 0.792/0.750) in predicting the 5-/10-year OS of RN patients (all P<0.05). In addition, the AUC of the SYSUCC nomogram for predicting the 15-year OS (0.820) was larger than that of the SSIGN score (0.709), and there was no statistical difference (P<0.05) between the SYSUCC nomogram, pure pathological staging (0.773) and the Karakiewicz nomogram (0.826). The calibration curve was close to the standard curve, which indicated that the model has good predictive performance. Finally, patients were stratified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk subgroups (738, 379 and 129, respectively) according to the SYSUCC nomogram scores, among whom patients in intermediate- and high-risk subgroups had a worse OS than patients in the low-risk subgroup (intermediate-risk group vs. low-risk group: HR=4.33, 95% CI: 3.22-5.81, P<0.001; high-risk group vs low-risk group: HR=11.95, 95% CI: 8.29-17.24, P<0.001), and the high-risk subgroup had a worse OS than the intermediate-risk group (HR=2.63, 95% CI: 1.88-3.68, P<0.001). Conclusions: Age, smoking history, pathological nuclear grade, sarcomatoid differentiation, tumor necrosis and pathological stage were independent prognostic factors for non-metastasis renal cell carcinoma patients after RN. The SYSUCC nomogram based on these independent prognostic factors can better predict the 5-, 10-, and 15-year OS than pure pathological staging, the Karakiewicz nomogram and the SSIGN score of patients after RN. In addition, the SYSUCC nomogram has good discrimination, agreement, risk stratification and clinical application potential.
Humans
;
Nomograms
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Carcinoma, Renal Cell/pathology*
;
Prognosis
;
Risk Factors
;
Nephrectomy
;
Kidney Neoplasms/pathology*
;
Necrosis
9.Long-term survival analysis of 1 367 patients treated with radical nephrectomy from a single center.
Xiang Peng ZOU ; Kang NING ; Zhi Ling ZHANG ; Ling ZOU ; Long Bin XIONG ; Yu Lu PENG ; Zhao Hui ZHOU ; Hui Ming LIU ; Chun Ping YU ; Pei DONG ; Sheng Jie GUO ; Hui HAN ; Fang Jian ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2023;45(11):981-987
Objective: To report the long-term survival of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients treated with radical nephrectomy in Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the clinical, pathological and follow-up records of 1 367 non-metastatic RCC patients treated with radical nephrectomy from 1999 to 2020 in this center. The primary endpoint of this study was overall survival rate. Survival curves were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and group differences were compared through Log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis were fit to determine the clinical and pathological features associated with overall survival rate. Results: A total of 1 367 patients treated with radical nephrectomy with complete follow-up data were included in the study. The median follow-up time was 52.6 months, and 1 100 patients survived and 267 died, with the median time to overall survival not yet reached. The 5-year and 10-year overall survival rates were 82.8% and 74.9%, respectively. The 5-year and 10-year overall survival rates of Leibovich low-risk patients were 93.3% and 88.2%, respectively; of Leibovich intermediate-risk patients were 82.2% and 72.3%, respectively; and of Leibovich high-risk patients were 50.5% and 30.2%, respectively. There were significant differences in the long-term survival among the three groups (P<0.001). The 10-year overall survival rates for patients with pT1, pT2, pT3 and pT4 RCC were 83.2%, 73.6%, 55.0% and 31.4%, respectively. There were significant differences among pT1, pT2, pT3 and pT4 patients(P<0.001). The 5-year and 10-year overall survival rates of patients with lymph node metastasis were 48.5% and 35.6%, respectively, and those of patients without lymph node metastasis were 85.1% and 77.5%, respectively. There was significant difference in the long-term survival between patients with lymph node metastasis and without lymph node metastasis. The 10-year overall survival rate was 96.2% for nuclear Grade 1, 81.6% for nuclear Grade 2, 60.5% for nuclear Grade 3, and 43.4% for nuclear Grade 4 patients. The difference was statistically significant. There was no significant difference in the long-term survival between patients with localized renal cancer (pT1-2N0M0) who underwent open surgery and minimally invasive surgery (10-year overall survival rate 80.5% vs 85.6%, P=0.160). Multivariate Cox analysis showed that age≥55 years (HR=2.11, 95% CI: 1.50-2.96, P<0.001), T stage(T3+ T4 vs T1a: HR=2.37, 95% CI: 1.26-4.46, P=0.008), local lymph node metastasis (HR=3.04, 95%CI: 1.81-5.09, P<0.001), nuclear grade (G3-G4 vs G1: HR=4.21, 95%CI: 1.51-11.75, P=0.006), tumor necrosis (HR=1.66, 95% CI: 1.17-2.37, P=0.005), sarcomatoid differentiation (HR=2.39, 95% CI: 1.31-4.35, P=0.005) and BMI≥24kg/m(2) (HR=0.56, 95%CI: 0.39-0.80, P=0.001) were independent factors affecting long-term survival after radical nephrectomy. Conclusions: The long-term survival of radical nephrectomy in patients with renal cell carcinoma is satisfactory. Advanced age, higher pathological stage and grade, tumor necrosis and sarcomatoid differentiation were the main adverse factors affecting the prognosis of patients. Higher body mass index was a protective factor for the prognosis of patients.
Humans
;
Middle Aged
;
Carcinoma, Renal Cell/secondary*
;
Lymphatic Metastasis
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Neoplasm Staging
;
Kidney Neoplasms/pathology*
;
Prognosis
;
Nephrectomy
;
Survival Analysis
;
Necrosis/surgery*
;
Survival Rate
10.Establishment and validation of a novel nomogram to predict overall survival after radical nephrectomy.
Long Bin XIONG ; Xiang Peng ZOU ; Kang NING ; Xin LUO ; Yu Lu PENG ; Zhao Hui ZHOU ; Jun WANG ; Zhen LI ; Chun Ping YU ; Pei DONG ; Sheng Jie GUO ; Hui HAN ; Fang Jian ZHOU ; Zhi Ling ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2023;45(8):681-689
Objective: To establish a nomogram prognostic model for predicting the 5-, 10-, and 15-year overall survival (OS) of non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma patients managed with radical nephrectomy (RN), compare the modelled results with the results of pure pathologic staging, the Karakiewicz nomogram and the Mayo Clinic Stage, Size, Grade, and Necrosis (SSIGN) score commonly used in foreign countries, and stratify the patients into different prognostic risk subgroups. Methods: A total of 1 246 non-metastatic renal cell carcinoma patients managed with RN in Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC) from 1999 to 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to screen the variables that influence the prognosis for nomogram establishment, and the bootstrap random sampling was used for internal validation. The time-receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the calibration curve and the clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) were applied to evaluate the nomogram. The prediction efficacy of the nomogram and that of the pure pathologic staging, the Karakiewicz nomogram and the SSIGN score was compared through the area under the curve (AUC). Finally, patients were stratified into different risk subgroups according to our nomogram scores. Results: A total of 1 246 patients managed with RN were enrolled in this study. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age, smoking history, pathological nuclear grade, sarcomatoid differentiation, tumor necrosis and pathological T and N stages were independent prognostic factors for RN patients (all P<0.05). A nomogram model named SYSUCC based on these factors was built to predict the 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival rate of the participating patients. In the bootstrap random sampling with 1 000 iterations, all these factors occurred for more than 800 times as independent predictors. The Harrell's concordance index (C-index) of SYSUCC was higher compared with pure pathological staging [0.770 (95% CI: 0.716-0.823) vs 0.674 (95% CI: 0.621-0.728)]. The calibration curve showed that the survival rate as predicted by the SYSUCC model simulated the actual rate, while the clinical DCA showed that the SYSUCC nomogram has a benefit in certain probability ranges. In the ROC analysis that included 857 patients with detailed pathological nuclear stages, the nomogram had a larger AUC (5-/10-year AUC: 0.823/0.804) and better discriminating ability than pure pathological staging (5-/10-year AUC: 0.701/0.658), Karakiewicz nomogram (5-/10-year AUC: 0.772/0.734) and SSIGN score (5-/10-year AUC: 0.792/0.750) in predicting the 5-/10-year OS of RN patients (all P<0.05). In addition, the AUC of the SYSUCC nomogram for predicting the 15-year OS (0.820) was larger than that of the SSIGN score (0.709), and there was no statistical difference (P<0.05) between the SYSUCC nomogram, pure pathological staging (0.773) and the Karakiewicz nomogram (0.826). The calibration curve was close to the standard curve, which indicated that the model has good predictive performance. Finally, patients were stratified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk subgroups (738, 379 and 129, respectively) according to the SYSUCC nomogram scores, among whom patients in intermediate- and high-risk subgroups had a worse OS than patients in the low-risk subgroup (intermediate-risk group vs. low-risk group: HR=4.33, 95% CI: 3.22-5.81, P<0.001; high-risk group vs low-risk group: HR=11.95, 95% CI: 8.29-17.24, P<0.001), and the high-risk subgroup had a worse OS than the intermediate-risk group (HR=2.63, 95% CI: 1.88-3.68, P<0.001). Conclusions: Age, smoking history, pathological nuclear grade, sarcomatoid differentiation, tumor necrosis and pathological stage were independent prognostic factors for non-metastasis renal cell carcinoma patients after RN. The SYSUCC nomogram based on these independent prognostic factors can better predict the 5-, 10-, and 15-year OS than pure pathological staging, the Karakiewicz nomogram and the SSIGN score of patients after RN. In addition, the SYSUCC nomogram has good discrimination, agreement, risk stratification and clinical application potential.
Humans
;
Nomograms
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Carcinoma, Renal Cell/pathology*
;
Prognosis
;
Risk Factors
;
Nephrectomy
;
Kidney Neoplasms/pathology*
;
Necrosis

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