ObjectiveTo predict the in-hospital mortality risk among patients with ischemic stroke combined by dysphagia using interpretable machine learning methods, so as to provide more evidence-based support for the prognosis prediction of patients with ischemic stroke combined by dysphagia. MethodsMedical record of 308 patients diagnosed with ischemic stroke combined by dysphagia in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care Ⅳ (MIMIC-Ⅳ) (2.0) in the United States were retrospectively analyzed. Features of the research data were screened based on the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, and which were randomly divided into a training set and a test set at a ratio of 7∶3. Then ten models, including logistic regression, random forest, K-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis, naive bayes (NB), neural network, quadratic discriminant analysis, recursive partitioning tree, extreme gradient boosting tree, and support vector machine, etc. were constructed. The predictive effect was measured by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristics. In addition, the calibration curve and Brier score were used to evaluate the calibration degree of the model, and the decision curve was drawn to reflect the clinical net benefit. The Shapley additive explanation method was used to analyze the interpretability of the black box model and explore the important decision-making factors. ResultsThe NB model in the test set showed better predictive ability compared with other models (AUC=0.85, 95%CI: 0.83‒0.88). After interpretability analysis, it was found that blood urea nitrogen (BUN), age, sequential organ failure assessment, bicarbonate, chloride, and hypertension were important risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with ischemic stroke combined by dysphagia. ConclusionThe comprehensive performance of the NB model is better than that of the other nine models in predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality in patients with ischemic stroke combined by dysphagia. The interpretability of the model can help clinicians better understand the reasons behind the results and take further reasonable intervention measures for risk factors to improve the survival probability of patients.

ObjectiveTo establish an adjusted Serfling regression model to estimate the excess cases and the excess epidemic period of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, so as to provide data support and decision-making basis for HFMD prevention and control. MethodsThe weekly number of HFMD cases in Beijing from 2011 to 2019 was utilized for adjusted the Serfling regression model. Then the adjusted model was used to fit the baseline and epidemic threshold of HFMD in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, calculating the excess cases and determining the excess epidemic period. ResultsA total of 279 306 cases of HFMD were reported in Beijing from 2011 to 2019, with the climax of the disease occurring in summer and autumn. After adjusting the fitting R² of the Serfling regression model to 0.773, a total of 10 excess epidemic periods totaling 92 weeks were estimated, mainly occurring in summer. The highest number of excess cases during an excess epidemic period was found in 2014 (1 272 cases, 95%CI: 990‒1 554), accounting for 65.04% of the actual cases (95%CI: 50.62%‒79.46%). ConclusionThe adjusted Serfling regression model fits well and can be utilized for early warning of HFMD and estimating the disease burden caused by HFMD.

ObjectiveTo construct a group-based trajectory model (GBTM) for early medication adherence check-in, and to analyze the relationship between different trajectories and treatment outcomes in tuberculosis patients using data that were generated from smart tools for monitoring their medication adherence and check-in. MethodsFrom October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023, a total of 163 pulmonary tuberculosis patients diagnosed in Fengxian District were selected as the study subjects. The GBTM was utilized to analyze the weekly active check-in trajectories of the subjects during the first 4 weeks and establish different trajectory groups. The χ² tests were employed to compare the differences between groups and logistic regression analysis was conducted to explore the relationship between different trajectory groups and treatment outcomes. ResultsA total of four groups were generated by GBTM analyses, of which a low level of punch card was maintained in group A, 6% of the drug users increased rapidly from a low level in group B, 17% of drug users increased gradually from a low level in group C, and 18% of drug users maintained a high level of punch card in group D. The trajectory group was divided into two groups according to homogeneity, namely the low level medication punch card group (group A) and the high level medication punch card group (group B, group C, and group D). The results of multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that low-level medication check-in (OR=3.250, 95%CI: 1.089‒9.696), increasing age (OR=1.030, 95%CI: 1.004‒1.056), and not undergoing sputum examination at the end of the fifth month (OR=2.746, 95%CI: 1.090‒7.009) were significantly associated with poor treatment outcomes. ConclusionThe medication check-in trajectory of pulmonary tuberculosis patients within the first 4 weeks is correlated with adverse outcomes, or namely consistent low-level medication adherence check-ins are associated with poor treatment outcomes, while high-level medication adherence check-ins are associated with a lower incidence of adverse outcomes.

ObjectiveTo understand the whole genome characteristics and the information for genetic evolution in the two coxsackievirus A2 (CVA2) strains isolated from patients with herpangina in Shanghai, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of herpetic angina. MethodsTwo CAV2 strains isolated from patients with herpetic angina in Shanghai were performed whole genome sequencing and analysis for phylogenetics, nucleotide homology, and evolution. ResultsA phylogenetic analysis of the VP1 region revealed that the two Shanghai strains both belonged to CVA2 genotype D, with the highest homology to OL357660, a strain from Yunnan. The average nucleotide identity (ANI) of the whole genome between the two Shanghai strains was 98.88%, and the ANI of the whole genome comparisons to other CVA2 genotype D strains and CVA2 genotypes A-C strains ranged from 84.64% to 97.42% and from 79.21% to 84.20%, respectively. The two Shanghai strains had low homology in the 3D region compared to the existing CVA2 strains. The phylogenetic analysis and sliding window nucleotide similarity analysis indicated that the two Shanghai strains and the Yunnan OL357660 strain might constitute a new genetic lineage. ConclusionThe two CVA2 strains isolated for the first time in Shanghai are assigned to genotype D (GenBank: PQ130039 and PQ130040), which is identical to the existing subtype prevalent in China. As represented by the Shanghai strains, a new CVA2 genetic lineage is been identified. This study has enriched the data on genetic evolution and genetic variation of CVA2 in Shanghai, indicating the requirement to strengthen surveillance for the epidemiological pattern of CVA2.

ObjectiveTo obtain the epidemiological characteristics of re-positive cases infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Pudong New Area from March to July 2022, including clinical manifestations, duration of a negative nucleic acid conversion after tested for re-positive, and length of time from the discharge of the initial infection to the most recent re-positivity, so as to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of COVID-19. MethodsA questionnaire survey was conducted among the re-positive cases infected with SARS-CoV-2 after discharged from hospital/quarantine facility in Pudong New Area, and descriptive epidemiological methods were used for characteristics analysis. ResultsA total of 2 422 re-positive cases met the inclusive and exclusive criteria, with males accounting for 61.02%. The age distribution mainly fell between 18 and <60 years old, accounting for 62.39%. Clinical manifestations were predominantly asymptomatic (72.15%), followed by cough (12.03%) and sore throat (6.58%). Among the stratified randomized sample of 416 individuals, there were statistically significant differences in symptoms (χ²=262.667, P<0.001), clinical typing (χ²=12.996, P=0.001), and duration of a negative nucleic acid conversion (χ²=142.578, P<0.001) between the initial positive and re-positive instances. Besides, statistically significant differences in symptoms (χ²=13.696, P=0.016) and self-perception of the severity of re-infection (χ²=7.923, P=0.048) between the initial and re-positive cases were observed by different genders. ConclusionAmong re-positive cases, males experienced milder symptoms compared to females, and the self-perception of symptoms during re-positivity is milder than that in the initial positive infection. The length of time for negative nucleic acid conversion during the initial positive period is shorter than that during the re-positive period.

ObjectiveTo describe the epidemiological characteristics and trend of pulmonary tuberculosis among the elderly in Shanghai from 2014 to 2023, to estimate the incidence between 2024‒2025, so as to provide references for optimizing the prevention and control strategies of pulmonary tuberculosis for elderly in Shanghai. MethodsData of pulmonary tuberculosis patients aged ≥60 years in Shanghai registered in the Tuberculosis Registration and Management System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 2014 to 2023 was derived to describe the demographic characteristics of the elderly patients with pulmonary tuberculosis, and to calculate the reported incidence rate and annual percentage change (APC) of pulmonary tuberculosis. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was constructed using monthly reported incidence data from January 2014 to June 2023, and data from July to December in 2023 were used to validate the model and predict the reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis among elderly in 2024 and 2025. ResultsA total of 19 208 elderly pulmonary tuberculosis patients were registered and reported in Shanghai from 2014 to 2023, with an average annual reported incidence rate of 35.04/100 000. The reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in elderly showed an overall decreasing trend, APC=-3.34% (t=-3.360,P=0.010). While, the proportion of elderly pulmonary tuberculosis patients showed a yearly increasing trend among the total registered and reported cases, APC=5.65% (t=10.820, P<0.001). The difference in the average annual reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis in elderly was statistically significant in different regions (χ²=31.762, P=0.007), with the central urban areas(33.23/100 000) being lower than that in suburban areas (36.46/100 000), and the annual decreasing rate was faster in central urban area, APC=-4.88% (t=-4.838, P<0.001) and -2.76% (t=-2.811, P=0.023), respectively. The incidence rate was significantly higher in males than that in females (χ²=514.395, P<0.001). Additionally, the difference in reported incidence rate was statistically significant among different age groups(χ²=119.751,P<0.001), among which patients aged ≥80 years had the highest average annual incidence rate (59.69/100 000), and those aged ≤60 years had the lowest average annual incidence rate (28.57/100 000). Compared with the non-residential permanent elderly population (47.68/100 000), the average annual incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis among the elderly with household registration in Shanghai was lower (33.82/100 000) (χ²=24.295, P<0.001). The ARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,1) 12 model was used to predict the incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis among the elderly in Shanghai in 2024 and 2025, and which was predicted to be 37.41/100 000 and 35.92/100 000, respectively. ConclusionThe reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis among the elderly in Shanghai showed an overall yearly downward trend from 2014 to 2023, but its proportion in the total number of reported pulmonary tuberculosis cases increased year by year. Prevention and control efforts should still not be slackened and emphasis should be placed on male, suburban and non-residential permanent elderly populations.

ObjectiveTo analyze the safety of simultaneous vaccination of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) and oral pentavalent human rotavirus live attenuated vaccine (RV5) in age-eligible children in Changning District, Shanghai. MethodsAdverse events following immunization (AEFI) and vaccination information after PCV13 and RV5 vaccination from Jan.1, 2022 to Dec.31, 2023 were collected through the National Immunization Program Information Management System and the Shanghai Immunization Information System in Changning District. We compared the incidence rates of AEFI reports after PCV13 and RV5 standalone and simultaneous vaccination. ResultsPCV13 was administered standalone in 7 654 doses, with 107 AEFI reports and an AEFI reporting rate of 1 397.96/100 000, including 1 371.83/100 000 for general reactions (105 cases) and 26.13/100 000 for abnormal reactions (2 cases). RV5 was administered standalone in 8 114 doses, with 30 AEFI reports and an AEFI reporting rate of 369.73/100 000, all of which were general reactions. PCV13 and RV5 were administered simultaneously in 6 731 doses, with 56 AEFI reports and an AEFI reporting rate of 831.97/100 000, including 802.26/100 000 for general reactions (54 cases), 14.86/100 000 for abnormal reactions (1 case), and 14.86/100 000 for coupling symptoms (1 case). ConclusionThe incidence rates of AEFI reports after PCV13 and RV5 vaccination standalone or simultaneous among age-eligible children in Changning District are within an acceptable range, primarily consisting of general reactions. PCV13 and RV5 simultaneous vaccination did not increase the risk of AEFI incidence.

ObjectiveTo understand the measles, rubella, and mumps antibody seroprevalence among the children aged 18 years and younger in Karamay City, and to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination. MethodsA stratified whole cluster random sampling method was used to investigate the antibody seroprevalence of measles, rubella, and mumps among the healthy children aged 18 years and younger in Karamay City, and to further analyze the positive antibody rates and the geometric mean concentration (GMC) of antibodies. ResultsA total of 620 people were investigated, and the positive rates of IgG to measles, rubella, and mumps were 72.74%,62.26%, and 86.45%, respectively, with a GMC of308.94 mIU·mL^-1, 21.81 mIU·mL^-1, and 249.10 U·mL^-1. There were statistically significant differences in the positive rates of antibodies to measles, rubella, and mumps among different age groups (χ²_measles=76.707, P<0.001; χ²_rubella=60.804, P<0.001; χ²_mumps=35.407, P<0.001). The differences in positive rates were statistically significant among individuals with different intervals from the time of their last dose vaccination (χ²_measles=60.533, P<0.001; χ²_rubella=46.331, P<0.001; χ²_mumps=22.825, P<0.001). ConclusionThe antibody levels of measles, rubella and mumps among the people aged 18 years and younger in Karamay City are found to be low. Two doses of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine should be given to children born before 2020, and if necessary, supplementary immunization with MMR vaccine should be carried out before they are enrolled in nursery and kindergarten. Additionally, regular population-based antibody surveillance should be conducted to promptly identify the people with weak immunity, which is conducive to effectively reducing and controlling the epidemic situation of measles, rubella and mumps in schools.

ObjectiveTo analyze the trend of lung cancer incidence in Fenghua District, Ningbo City of Zhejiang Province from 2009 to 2023, and to estimate the age-period- cohort effects of incidence rate, so as to provide scientific basis for the formulation of lung cancer prevention and control measures in Fenghua District. MethodsJoinpoint software was utilized to analyze the trends and calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of lung cancer incidence based on the tumor incidence surveillance data from Fenghua District, 2009‒2023. The age-period-cohort (APC) model for lung cancer incidence was analyzed using STATA 17.0 software, and net drift and local drift of lung cancer incidence rates were analyzed using online analytical tools. ResultsThe incidence of lung cancer in Fenghua District showed an overall upward trend from 2009 to 2023, with the standardized incidence rate increasing from 45.05/100 000 in 2009 to 108.20/100 000 in 2023(AAPC=7.05%, P<0.05). The increase in the standardized incidence rate for females (AAPC=12.72%, P<0.05) was higher than that for males (AAPC=2.97%, P<0.05). The overall net drift in lung cancer incidence for residents of Fenghua District was 11.71%, with the net drift for females (16.54%) being higher than that for males (6.64%). The local drift in lung cancer incidence among different age groups ranged from -3.37% to 35.18%. The results of APC model showed that the risk of lung cancer incidence increased and then decreased with age, with the highest age effect coefficient observed in the 65‒69 years age group at 1.08. The period effect showed a gradually increasing trend in lung cancer incidence risk with the progression of time, and the period effect coefficient in 2019‒2023 (0.46) was higher than that in 2009‒2013 (-0.39), increasing by 217.95%. The cohort effect coefficient showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing with the expansion of the birth cohort, in which the lowest cohort effect coefficient was -1.07 observed in the birth cohort of 1964‒1968 and the highest cohort effect coefficient was 1.77 in the birth cohort of 1924‒1928. ConclusionThe incidence of lung cancer in Fenghua District shows an upward trend from 2009 to 2023, with a higher increase in incidence rates among females than that in males. The risk of lung cancer incidence exists a trend of increasing and then decreasing with age growth. With the progression of time, the risk of lung cancer incidence shows a gradually increasing trend. However, with the expansion the birth cohort, the risk of lung cancer incidence demonstrates a trend of first decreasing and then increasing.

ObjectiveTo analyze the incidence rate and mortality of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and their changing trends among the registered residents in Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou City from 2017 to 2023, so as to provide references for formulating policies related to AMI prevention. MethodsThe morbidity and mortality data of AMI among the registered residents in Xiaoshan District from 2017 to 2023 were collected through the Hangzhou Chronic Disease and Death Cause Monitoring System. Software such as Excel 2019, SPSS 25.0 and Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 were used to calculate the incidence rate, mortality, and average annual percentage change (AAPC) of AMI. ResultsFrom 2017 to 2023, the average annual crude incidence rate, age-standardized incidence rate using China standard population (ASIRC), and the age-standardized incidence rate using World standard population (ASIRW) of AMI in Xiaoshan District were 48.25/100 000, 29.14/100 000, and 21.64/100 000, respectively, and, from which the AAPCs were 5.495%, 6.010%, and 6.533%, respectively, all showing an upward trend. The average annual crude mortality rate, the age-standardized mortality rate using China standard population (ASMRC), and the age-standardized mortality rate using World standard population (ASMRW) were 11.76/100 000, 6.52/100 000, and 4.71/100 000, respectively, from which the AAPCs were -9.669%, -10.433% and -9.615%, respectively, all showing a downward trend. The average annual crude incidence rate of AMI was higher in males (65.87/100 000) than that in females (31.31/100 000). Moreover, the average annual crude mortality rate of AMI was higher in males (14.08/100 000) than that in females (9.52/100 000), and the difference was statistically significant (all P<0.001) .After age grouping, the crude incidence rate of AMI among the residents aged 35-, 45-, 55-, and 65- years in Xiaoshan District from 2017 to 2023 showed an upward trend over time, with AAPCs of 16.993%, 17.149%, 8.523%, and 5.002%, respectively. While the crude mortality rate in residents aged 35-, 75-, and 85-102 years showed an decreasing trend over time, with AAPCs of -23.977%, -15.467%, and -17.415%, respectively, but there was no statistically significant difference in the trends in incidence rate and mortality of other age groups (all P>0.05). ConclusionThe situation of AMI prevention and control among the registered residents in Xiaoshan District is not optimistic, and targeted measures should be strengthened for the male residents aged ≥35 years old.