BACKGROUND: There is a gap in understanding the effects of different acupoints and treatment methods (acupuncture and moxibustion) on microcirculatory changes in the lumbar region. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the thermal effects of acupuncture at Weizhong (BL40), with acupuncture at Chize (LU5) and moxibustion at both acupoints as control interventions. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTIONS: In this randomized controlled trial, 140 healthy participants were equally divided into four groups: acupuncture at BL40 (Acu-BL40), acupuncture at LU5 (Acu-LU5), moxibustion at BL40 (Mox-BL40) and moxibustion at LU5 (Mox-LU5). Participants underwent a 30-minute session of their assigned treatment. Infrared thermal imaging was used to collect temperature data on the areas of interest for analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary measure was the change in average temperature of the observed area after the intervention. The secondary measures included periodic temperature changes every 5 min and the temperature changes of the Governor Vessel and Bladder Meridian in the observed area after the intervention. RESULTS: Significant interactions were observed between treatments and acupoints affecting temperature (P < 0.001). The Acu-BL40 group showed a notably higher increase in mean temperature after 30 min compared to the Acu-LU5 and Mox-BL40 groups, with increases of 0.29 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.17 to 0.41) and 0.24 (95% CI = 0.08 to 0.41) °C, respectively. CONCLUSION: Acupuncture at BL40 acupoint can significantly increase the mean temperature in the observed area, highlighting the specific thermal effect of acupuncture compared to moxibustion in the lumbar area. This suggests a potential therapeutic benefit of acupuncture at BL40 for managing lumbar conditions. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05665426). Please cite this article as: Zheng SY, Wang XY, Lin LN, Liu S, Huang XX, Liu YY, Yu XS, Pan W, Fang JQ, Liang Y. Lumbar temperature change after acupuncture or moxibustion at Weizhong (BL40) or Chize (LU5) in healthy adults: A randomized controlled trial. J Integr Med. 2025; 23(2): 145-151.
Adult ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Young Adult ; Acupuncture Points ; Acupuncture Therapy ; Body Temperature ; Healthy Volunteers ; Lumbosacral Region/physiology* ; Moxibustion ; Adolescent

Objective:To investigate the clinical efficacy and safety of Pseudomonas aeruginosa injection in preventing reurrent urinary tract infection in women. Methods:This was a multicenter, randomized, open, positive-controlled, non-inferiority trial involving female patients with recurrent urinary tract infections (rUTIs) who were admitted to 11 medical centers in China. Inclusion criteria: ①Aged 18-70 years, with verifiable clinical data showing at least 3 episodes of acute UTIs within 1 year and at least 2 episodes within 6 months, and cured by antimicrobial therapy; ② At the time of enrollment, the patients had no obvious symptoms of urinary tract irritation, normal white blood cell count in midstream urine routine (within the normal range of laboratory standards of each unit) or ≤3HP by centrifuge microscopy, negative leucocyte esterase and nitrite, and negative urine culture; ③No abnormal urinary anatomic function (such as urinary obstruction, calculus or congenital urinary malformation) and residual urine volume ≤50 ml were detected by B-ultrasound of urinary system; ④Informed consent signed by the person or agent; ⑤Clear consciousness, able to answer questions independently, according to the requirements of the test plan to complete the research questionnaire. Exclusion criteria: ①Patients allergic to the above drugs; ②Any complex signs of urinary tract infection or pyelonephritis (manifested as low back pain, fever ≥37.3℃, systemic symptoms); ③Drugs affecting immune function were used within 7 days before randomization; ④Patients with basic diseases of urinary system such as obstruction, calculus, urinary stenosis, vesicoureteral reflux or other functional abnormalities, urine diversion, indwelling catheter or stent tube or intermittent catheterization; ⑤Combined with or existing systemic lupus erythematosus, AIDS and other diseases that can lead to systemic immune function abnormalities; ⑥Patients who are known or suspected to be pregnant, breastfeeding, or planning a pregnancy within 3 months of stopping the drug; ⑦Patients with malignant tumors and mental patients; ⑧Persons who have received any other investigational drug treatment or participated in another interventional clinical trial within 4 weeks prior to screening; ⑨Failure to comply with the trial protocol or other conditions deemed unsuitable for enrollment by the investigator. Patients were randomly divided into 2 groups. The experimental group was given Pseudomonas aeruginosa injection for 5 times, 0.5 ml for the first time, and 1 ml/ time per week for the following 4 weeks. The control group was given fosfomycin aminotriol 3g orally, once every 10 days, for 9 consecutive times. The patients were followed up for 6 to 8 months, during which urinary tract symptoms developed and routine urine tests showed abnormally elevated white blood cells, which was defined as recurrent UTIs. Urine routine, liver and kidney function, and urinary secretory immunoglobulin A(SIgA) were reviewed 0-2 days (V2) after the 5th administration of the experimental group and the 4th administration of the control group. Urine routine and urine SIgA were reviewed at (90±10) d (V3) and (180±10) d (V4) after treatment. At (270±10) d (V5) after treatment, the recurrence (re-infection caused by the same species of bacteria) or re-infection (re-infection caused by non-same species of bacteria) of the two groups were compared, and non-inferiority analysis was performed, and the non-inferiority threshold was set at 0.2. Results:From March 2021 to May 2022, a total of 152 rUTIs patients were enrolled in this study, including 80 patients in the experimental group, 71 patients in the intention-to-analysis set (ITT) and 66 patients in the protocol analysis set (PPS). In the control group, 72 cases met ITT in 69 cases and PPS in 67 cases. There were no significant differences in age, body mass index, marital status, duration of urinary tract infection, history of diabetes, history of previous major surgery, history of infection, and urinary SIgA between the two groups (all P>0.05). The recurrence rates of the experimental group and the control group at V5 time point were 44.78% (30/67) and 42.65% (29/68), respectively ( P=0.803) (ITT data set analysis results showed that the difference in recurrence rates between the two groups was 0.0213(95% CI-0.1460-0.1886, P=0.0048). PPS data set analysis showed that the difference of recurrence rate between the two groups was -0.0021(95%CI -0.1711-0.1670, P=0.0109), and the recurrence rate of the experimental group was not worse than that of the control group. At V2 time points, there were no significant differences in liver and kidney function indexes between test group and control group ( P>0.05). At V2 to V4 time points, urinary SIgA of test group and control group were 0.90 (0.37, 2.89) mg/L and 1.32 (0.34, 3.08) mg/L, 1.54 (0.44, 3.23) mg/L and 1.71 (0.27, 2.92) mg/L, 1.11 (0.65, 3.42) mg/L and 2.18 (0.43, 3.26) mg/L, there was no statistical significance ( P>0.05). The incidence of adverse events in the experimental group was 30.0% (24/80), including 14 cases of redness, pain and discomfort at the injection site, 5 cases of fever, 2 cases of allergic rash, and 1 case of urticaria, headache and constipation each. The incidence of adverse events in the control group was 5.6% (4/72), all of which were diarrhea, and the difference between the two groups was statistically significant ( P<0.01). No life-threatening serious adverse events occurred in both groups, and all adverse events were self-healing without additional intervention. Conclusions:Compared with fosfomycin aminotriol, Pseudomonas aeruginosa injection has the same clinical effect in preventing rUTI and has good safety.

Objective:To explore the role of NK cells in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell micro-transplantation(MST)in the treatment of patients with acute myeloid leukemia(AML).Methods:Data from 93 AML patients treated with MST at our center from 2013-2018 were retrospectively analyzed.The induction regimen was anthracycline and cytarabine combined with peripheral blood stem cells transplantation mobilization by granulocyte colony stimulating factor(GPBSC),followed by 2-4 courses of intensive treatment with medium to high doses of cytarabine combined with GPBSC after achieving complete remission(CR).The therapeutic effects of one and two courses of MST induction therapy on 42 patients who did not reach CR before transplantation were evaluated.Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to analyze the impact of donor NK cell dose and KIR genotype,including KIR ligand mismatch,2DS1,haplotype,and HLA-Cw ligands on survival prognosis of patients.Results:Forty-two patients received MST induction therapy,and the CR rate was 57.1％after 1 course and 73.7％after 2 courses.Multivariate analysis showed that,medium and high doses of NK cells was significantly associated with improved disease-free survival(DFS)of patients(HR=0.27,P=0.005;HR=0.21,P=0.001),and high doses of NK cells was significantly associated with improved overall survival(OS)of patients(HR=0.15,P=0.000).Donor 2DS1 positive significantly increases OS of patients(HR=0.25,P=0.011).For high-risk patients under 60 years old,patients of the donor-recipient KIR ligand mismatch group had longer DFS compared to the nonmismatch group(P=0.036);donor 2DS1 positive significantly prolonged OS of patients(P=0.009).Conclusion:NK cell dose,KIR ligand mismatch and 2DS1 influence the therapeutic effect of MST,improve the survival of AML patients.

Objective:To investigate the clinical efficacy and safety of Pseudomonas aeruginosa injection in preventing reurrent urinary tract infection in women. Methods:This was a multicenter, randomized, open, positive-controlled, non-inferiority trial involving female patients with recurrent urinary tract infections (rUTIs) who were admitted to 11 medical centers in China. Inclusion criteria: ①Aged 18-70 years, with verifiable clinical data showing at least 3 episodes of acute UTIs within 1 year and at least 2 episodes within 6 months, and cured by antimicrobial therapy; ② At the time of enrollment, the patients had no obvious symptoms of urinary tract irritation, normal white blood cell count in midstream urine routine (within the normal range of laboratory standards of each unit) or ≤3HP by centrifuge microscopy, negative leucocyte esterase and nitrite, and negative urine culture; ③No abnormal urinary anatomic function (such as urinary obstruction, calculus or congenital urinary malformation) and residual urine volume ≤50 ml were detected by B-ultrasound of urinary system; ④Informed consent signed by the person or agent; ⑤Clear consciousness, able to answer questions independently, according to the requirements of the test plan to complete the research questionnaire. Exclusion criteria: ①Patients allergic to the above drugs; ②Any complex signs of urinary tract infection or pyelonephritis (manifested as low back pain, fever ≥37.3℃, systemic symptoms); ③Drugs affecting immune function were used within 7 days before randomization; ④Patients with basic diseases of urinary system such as obstruction, calculus, urinary stenosis, vesicoureteral reflux or other functional abnormalities, urine diversion, indwelling catheter or stent tube or intermittent catheterization; ⑤Combined with or existing systemic lupus erythematosus, AIDS and other diseases that can lead to systemic immune function abnormalities; ⑥Patients who are known or suspected to be pregnant, breastfeeding, or planning a pregnancy within 3 months of stopping the drug; ⑦Patients with malignant tumors and mental patients; ⑧Persons who have received any other investigational drug treatment or participated in another interventional clinical trial within 4 weeks prior to screening; ⑨Failure to comply with the trial protocol or other conditions deemed unsuitable for enrollment by the investigator. Patients were randomly divided into 2 groups. The experimental group was given Pseudomonas aeruginosa injection for 5 times, 0.5 ml for the first time, and 1 ml/ time per week for the following 4 weeks. The control group was given fosfomycin aminotriol 3g orally, once every 10 days, for 9 consecutive times. The patients were followed up for 6 to 8 months, during which urinary tract symptoms developed and routine urine tests showed abnormally elevated white blood cells, which was defined as recurrent UTIs. Urine routine, liver and kidney function, and urinary secretory immunoglobulin A(SIgA) were reviewed 0-2 days (V2) after the 5th administration of the experimental group and the 4th administration of the control group. Urine routine and urine SIgA were reviewed at (90±10) d (V3) and (180±10) d (V4) after treatment. At (270±10) d (V5) after treatment, the recurrence (re-infection caused by the same species of bacteria) or re-infection (re-infection caused by non-same species of bacteria) of the two groups were compared, and non-inferiority analysis was performed, and the non-inferiority threshold was set at 0.2. Results:From March 2021 to May 2022, a total of 152 rUTIs patients were enrolled in this study, including 80 patients in the experimental group, 71 patients in the intention-to-analysis set (ITT) and 66 patients in the protocol analysis set (PPS). In the control group, 72 cases met ITT in 69 cases and PPS in 67 cases. There were no significant differences in age, body mass index, marital status, duration of urinary tract infection, history of diabetes, history of previous major surgery, history of infection, and urinary SIgA between the two groups (all P>0.05). The recurrence rates of the experimental group and the control group at V5 time point were 44.78% (30/67) and 42.65% (29/68), respectively ( P=0.803) (ITT data set analysis results showed that the difference in recurrence rates between the two groups was 0.0213(95% CI-0.1460-0.1886, P=0.0048). PPS data set analysis showed that the difference of recurrence rate between the two groups was -0.0021(95%CI -0.1711-0.1670, P=0.0109), and the recurrence rate of the experimental group was not worse than that of the control group. At V2 time points, there were no significant differences in liver and kidney function indexes between test group and control group ( P>0.05). At V2 to V4 time points, urinary SIgA of test group and control group were 0.90 (0.37, 2.89) mg/L and 1.32 (0.34, 3.08) mg/L, 1.54 (0.44, 3.23) mg/L and 1.71 (0.27, 2.92) mg/L, 1.11 (0.65, 3.42) mg/L and 2.18 (0.43, 3.26) mg/L, there was no statistical significance ( P>0.05). The incidence of adverse events in the experimental group was 30.0% (24/80), including 14 cases of redness, pain and discomfort at the injection site, 5 cases of fever, 2 cases of allergic rash, and 1 case of urticaria, headache and constipation each. The incidence of adverse events in the control group was 5.6% (4/72), all of which were diarrhea, and the difference between the two groups was statistically significant ( P<0.01). No life-threatening serious adverse events occurred in both groups, and all adverse events were self-healing without additional intervention. Conclusions:Compared with fosfomycin aminotriol, Pseudomonas aeruginosa injection has the same clinical effect in preventing rUTI and has good safety.

Animals ; Rats ; Explosions ; Proteomics ; Autophagy

Objective: To explore and compare the effect of standard or prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) on the long-term prognosis of elderly patients with coronary heart disease complicated with diabetes mellitus after drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation. Methods: Consecutive patients with diabetes mellitus, ≥65 years old, underwent DES implantation, and had no adverse events within 1 year after operation underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) from January to December 2013 in Fuwai Hospital were enrolled in this prospective cohort study. These patients were divided into three groups according to DAPT duration: standard DAPT duration group (11 ≤ DAPT duration≤ 13 months) and prolonged DAPT duration group (1324 months). All the patients were followed up at 1, 6 months, 1, 2 and 5 years in order to collect the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE), and type 2 to 5 bleeding events defined by the Federation of Bleeding Academic Research (BARC). MACCE were consisted of all cause death, myocardial infarction, target vessel revascularization or stroke. The incidence of clinical adverse events were compared among 3 different DAPT duration groups, and Cox regression model were used to analyze the effect of different DAPT duration on 5-year long-term prognosis. Results: A total of 1 562 patients were enrolled, aged (70.8±4.5) years, with 398 female (25.5%). There were 467 cases in standard DAPT duration group, 684 cases in 1324 months group. The patients in standard DAPT duration group and the prolonged DAPT duration groups accounted for 29.9% (467/1 562) and 70.1% (1 095/1 562), respectively. The 5-year follow-up results showed that the incidence of all-cause death in 13P=0.011) and DAPT duration>24 month group(4.1%(17/411) vs. 8.6%(40/467),P=0.008) were significantly lower than in standard DAPT group. The incidence of myocardial infarction in 13P=0.002). The incidence of MACCE in 1324 month group were 19.3% (90/467), 12.3% (84/684), 20.2% (83/411), respectively, P<0.001). There was no significant difference in the incidence of stroke and bleeding events among the three groups (all P>0.05). Multivariate Cox analysis showed that compared with the standard DAPT group, prolonged DAPT to 13-24 months was negatively correlated with MACCE (HR=0.601, 95%CI 0.446-0.811, P=0.001), all-cause death (HR=0.568, 95%CI 0.357-0.903, P=0.017) and myocardial infarction (HR=0.353, 95%CI 0.179-0.695, P=0.003). DAPT>24 months was negatively correlated with all-cause death (HR=0.687, 95%CI 0.516-0.913, P=0.010) and positively correlated with revascularization (HR=1.404, 95%CI 1.116-1.765, P=0.004). There was no correlation between prolonged DAPT and bleeding events. Conclusions: For elderly patients with coronary heart disease complicated with diabetes mellitus underwent DES implantation, and had no MACCE and bleeding events within 1 year after operation, appropriately prolonging of the DAPT duration is related to the reduction of the risk of cardiovascular adverse events. Patients may benefit the most from the DAPT between 13 to 24 months. In addition, prolonging DAPT duration does not increase the incidence of bleeding events in this patient cohort.
Aged ; Coronary Artery Disease/surgery* ; Diabetes Mellitus ; Drug Therapy, Combination ; Drug-Eluting Stents/adverse effects* ; Female ; Hemorrhage ; Humans ; Male ; Myocardial Infarction/epidemiology* ; Percutaneous Coronary Intervention ; Platelet Aggregation Inhibitors/therapeutic use* ; Prognosis ; Prospective Studies ; Stroke ; Treatment Outcome

Objective: To explore the heterogeneity and correlation of clinical phenotypes and genotypes in children with disorders of sex development (DSD). Methods: A retrospective study of 1 235 patients with clinically proposed DSD in 36 pediatric medical institutions across the country from January 2017 to May 2021. After capturing 277 DSD-related candidate genes, second-generation sequencing was performed to analyzed the heterogeneity and correlation combined with clinical phenotypes. Results: Among 1 235 children with clinically proposed DSD, 980 were males and 255 were females of social gender at the time of initial diagnosis with the age ranged from 1 day of age to 17.92 years. A total of 443 children with pathogenic variants were detected through molecular genetic studies, with a positive detection rate of 35.9%. The most common clinical phenotypes were micropenis (455 cases), hypospadias (321 cases), and cryptorchidism (172 cases) and common mutations detected were in SRD5A2 gene (80 cases), AR gene (53 cases) and CYP21A2 gene (44 cases). Among them, the SRD5A2 mutation is the most common in children with simple micropenis and simple hypospadias, while the AMH mutation is the most common in children with simple cryptorchidism. Conclusions: The SRD5A2 mutation is the most common genetic variant in Chinese children with DSD, and micropenis, cryptorchidism, and hypospadias are the most common clinical phenotypes. Molecular diagnosis can provide clues about the biological basis of DSD, and can also guide clinicians to perform specific clinical examinations. Target sequence capture probes and next-generation sequencing technology can provide effective and economical genetic diagnosis for children with DSD.
3-Oxo-5-alpha-Steroid 4-Dehydrogenase/genetics* ; Child ; China/epidemiology* ; Cryptorchidism/genetics* ; Disorders of Sex Development/genetics* ; Female ; Genital Diseases, Male ; Genotype ; Humans ; Hypospadias/genetics* ; Male ; Membrane Proteins/genetics* ; Penis/abnormalities* ; Phenotype ; Retrospective Studies ; Steroid 21-Hydroxylase/genetics*

OBJECTIVE: To retrospectively analyze the laborotary test results and clinical data of 31 patients with mixed phenotype acute leukemia (MPAL) in order to summarize and discuss the biological characteristics, curative effect, and prognosis of each subtype of MPAL based on immunophenotype results. METHODS: MPAL patients diagnosed and treated in our hospital from July 2013 to January 2019 were selected to analyze the data of cell morphology, immunophenotyping, cytogenetics, molecular biology (MICM), and routine blood at initial diagnosis. Follow-up was carried out until the last discharge time. RESULTS: Among 31 patients, there were 19 males and 12 females, with a median age of 41(12-76) years old. According to the results of immunophenotyping and EGIL score, there were 16 cases of myeloid-T lymphoid mixed phenotype (myeloid-T group), 9 cases of myeloid-B lymphoid mixed phenotype (myeloid-B group), 5 cases of T-B lymphoid mixed phenotype (T-B group), and 1 case of myeloid-T-B lymphoid mixed phenotype. Compared between different subtypes, the antigen expression characteristics were the highest positive rate and expression rate of HLA-DR in myeloid-B group, and the positive rate of CD2 in T-B group was significantly higher than that in the myeloid-T group. Meanwhile, the expression rates of CD7 and cCD3 (cytoplasmic CD3) in T-B group were higher than those in myeloid-T group, and cCD79a was positive in all cases of myeloid-B group and T-B group. The median WBC of T-B group was 81.92×10⁹/L, which was significantly higher than that of the other two groups (P<0.05). The quantitative results of WT1 were higher than 10^-4 in 92.6% of the patients, and the WT1 expression level in myeloid-B group was significantly lower than the other two groups (P<0.01). Among the 9 patients with myeloid-B mixed phenotype, 5 cases showed BCR-ABL positive. Among 28 patients followed up, 21 cases achieved complete remission (CR), the median time to first obtain CR was 32.5(9-75) days, and the median follow-up time was 16 months (range from 21 days to 6 years). The CR rate and median overall survival (OS) time in myeloid-B group were 88.9% and 40 months, which were higher than the other two groups. The CR rate and 3-year OS rate in T-B group were relatively lower (50.0%, 0). CONCLUSION WT1 gene is highly expressed in patients with MPAL, and each subgroup of MPAL based on immuophenotype has its unique antigen expression characteristics. Compared with myeloid-T group and T-B group, myeloid-B group can acquire higher remission rate and have better prognosis.
Acute Disease ; Female ; HLA-DR Antigens ; Humans ; Immunophenotyping ; Leukemia ; Male ; Phenotype ; Prognosis ; Retrospective Studies

BACKGROUND: Shenyankangfu Tablet (SYKFT) is a Chinese patent medicine that has been used widely to decrease proteinuria and the progression of chronic kidney disease. OBJECTIVE: This trial compared the efficacy and safety of SYKFT, for the control of proteinuria in primary glomerulonephritis patients, against the standard drug, losartan potassium. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTION: This was a multicenter, double-blind, randomized, controlled clinical trial. Primary glomerulonephritis patients, aged 18-70 years, with blood pressure ≤ 140/90 mmHg, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥ 45 mL/min per 1.73 m MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was change in the 24-hour proteinuria level, after 48 weeks of treatment. RESULTS: A total of 735 participants were enrolled. The percent decline of urine protein quantification in the SYKFT group after 48 weeks was 8.78% ± 2.56% (P = 0.006) more than that in the losartan 50 mg group, which was 0.51% ± 2.54% (P = 1.000) less than that in the losartan 100 mg group. Compared with the losartan potassium 50 mg group, the SYKFT plus losartan potassium 50 mg group had a 13.39% ± 2.49% (P < 0.001) greater reduction in urine protein level. Compared with the losartan potassium 100 mg group, the SYKFT plus losartan potassium 100 mg group had a 9.77% ± 2.52% (P = 0.001) greater reduction in urine protein. With a superiority threshold of 15%, neither was statistically significant. eGFR, serum creatinine and serum albumin from the baseline did not change statistically significant. The average change in TCM syndrome score between the patients who took SYKFT (-3.00 [-6.00, -2.00]) and who did not take SYKFT (-2.00 [-5.00, 0]) was statistically significant (P = 0.003). No obvious adverse reactions were observed in any group. CONCLUSION: SYKFT decreased the proteinuria and improved the TCM syndrome scores of primary glomerulonephritis patients, with no change in the rate of decrease in the eGFR. SYKFT plus losartan potassium therapy decreased proteinuria more than losartan potassium therapy alone. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT02063100 on ClinicalTrials.gov.

BACKGROUND: The basis of individualized treatment should be individualized mortality risk predictive information. The present study aimed to develop an online individual mortality risk predictive tool for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients based on a random survival forest (RSF) algorithm. METHODS: The current study retrospectively enrolled ACLF patients from the Department of Infectious Diseases of The First People's Hospital of Foshan, Shunde Hospital of Southern Medical University, and Jiangmen Central Hospital. Two hundred seventy-six consecutive ACLF patients were included in the present study as a model cohort (n = 276). Then the current study constructed a validation cohort by drawing patients from the model dataset based on the resampling method (n = 276). The RSF algorithm was used to develop an individual prognostic model for ACLF patients. The Brier score was used to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of prognostic models. The weighted mean rank estimation method was used to compare the differences between the areas under the time-dependent ROC curves (AUROCs) of prognostic models. RESULTS: Multivariate Cox regression identified hepatic encephalopathy (HE), age, serum sodium level, acute kidney injury (AKI), red cell distribution width (RDW), and international normalization index (INR) as independent risk factors for ACLF patients. A simplified RSF model was developed based on these previous risk factors. The AUROCs for predicting 3-, 6-, and 12-month mortality were 0.916, 0.916, and 0.905 for the RSF model and 0.872, 0.866, and 0.848 for the Cox model in the model cohort, respectively. The Brier scores were 0.119, 0.119, and 0.128 for the RSF model and 0.138, 0.146, and 0.156 for the Cox model, respectively. The nonparametric comparison suggested that the RSF model was superior to the Cox model for predicting the prognosis of ACLF patients. CONCLUSIONS The current study developed a novel online individual mortality risk predictive tool that could predict individual mortality risk predictive curves for individual patients. Additionally, the current online individual mortality risk predictive tool could further provide predicted mortality percentages and 95% confidence intervals at user-defined time points.
Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure ; Humans ; Prognosis ; Proportional Hazards Models ; ROC Curve ; Retrospective Studies