1.Expert consensus on neoadjuvant PD-1 inhibitors for locally advanced oral squamous cell carcinoma (2026)
LI Jinsong ; LIAO Guiqing ; LI Longjiang ; ZHANG Chenping ; SHANG Chenping ; ZHANG Jie ; ZHONG Laiping ; LIU Bing ; CHEN Gang ; WEI Jianhua ; JI Tong ; LI Chunjie ; LIN Lisong ; REN Guoxin ; LI Yi ; SHANG Wei ; HAN Bing ; JIANG Canhua ; ZHANG Sheng ; SONG Ming ; LIU Xuekui ; WANG Anxun ; LIU Shuguang ; CHEN Zhanhong ; WANG Youyuan ; LIN Zhaoyu ; LI Haigang ; DUAN Xiaohui ; YE Ling ; ZHENG Jun ; WANG Jun ; LV Xiaozhi ; ZHU Lijun ; CAO Haotian
Journal of Prevention and Treatment for Stomatological Diseases 2026;34(2):105-118
Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is a common head and neck malignancy. Approximately 50% to 60% of patients with OSCC are diagnosed at a locally advanced stage (clinical staging III-IVa). Even with comprehensive and sequential treatment primarily based on surgery, the 5-year overall survival rate remains below 50%, and patients often suffer from postoperative functional impairments such as difficulties with speaking and swallowing. Programmed death receptor-1 (PD-1) inhibitors are increasingly used in the neoadjuvant treatment of locally advanced OSCC and have shown encouraging efficacy. However, clinical practice still faces key challenges, including the definition of indications, optimization of combination regimens, and standards for efficacy evaluation. Based on the latest research advances worldwide and the clinical experience of the expert group, this expert consensus systematically evaluates the application of PD-1 inhibitors in the neoadjuvant treatment of locally advanced OSCC, covering combination strategies, treatment cycles and surgical timing, efficacy assessment, use of biomarkers, management of special populations and immune related adverse events, principles for immunotherapy rechallenge, and function preservation strategies. After multiple rounds of panel discussion and through anonymous voting using the Delphi method, the following consensus statements have been formulated: 1) Neoadjuvant therapy with PD-1 inhibitors can be used preoperatively in patients with locally advanced OSCC. The preferred regimen is a PD-1 inhibitor combined with platinum based chemotherapy, administered for 2-3 cycles. 2) During the efficacy evaluation of neoadjuvant therapy, radiographic assessment should follow the dual criteria of Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) version 1.1 and immune RECIST (iRECIST). After surgery, systematic pathological evaluation of both the primary lesion and regional lymph nodes is required. For combination chemotherapy regimens, PD-L1 expression and combined positive score need not be used as mandatory inclusion or exclusion criteria. 3) For special populations such as the elderly (≥ 70 years), individuals with stable HIV viral load, and carriers of chronic HBV/HCV, PD-1 inhibitors may be used cautiously under the guidance of a multidisciplinary team (MDT), with close monitoring for adverse events. 4) For patients with a poor response to neoadjuvant therapy, continuation of the original treatment regimen is not recommended; the subsequent treatment plan should be adjusted promptly after MDT assessment. Organ transplant recipients and patients with active autoimmune diseases are not recommended to receive neoadjuvant PD-1 inhibitor therapy due to the high risk of immune related activation. Rechallenge is generally not advised for patients who have experienced high risk immune related adverse events such as immune mediated myocarditis, neurotoxicity, or pneumonitis. 5) For patients with a good pathological response, individualized de escalation surgery and function preservation strategies can be explored. This consensus aims to promote the standardized, safe, and precise application of neoadjuvant PD-1 inhibitor strategies in the management of locally advanced OSCC patients.
2.Pharmacoeconomic evaluation of ribociclib plus fulvestrant in second-line treatment of HR+/HER2- advanced breast cancer for postmenopausal women
Caifeng JIA ; Jie WANG ; Sen ZHANG ; Meiqi WANG ; Sainan LI ; Mingxia WANG
Chinese Journal of Pharmacoepidemiology 2025;34(6):612-620
Objective To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the combination therapy of ribociclib plus fulvestrant compared to fulvestrant monotherapy as a second-line treatment for postmenopausal patients with hormone receptor-positive(HR+)/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative(HER2-)advanced metastatic breast cancer from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system.Methods A partitioned survival model was constructed based on MONALEESA-3 study data,with the model cycle of 4 weeks and the time range of 15 years.Total cost,quality-adjusted life years(QALYs)and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio(ICER)were compared between ribociclib combined with fulvestrant and fulvestrant monotherapy as a second-line treatment for postmenopausal patients with HR+/HER2-advanced metastatic breast cancer.The robustness of the models was validated through one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.Results Compared with the fulvestrant monotherapy regimen,the ICER for the ribociclib combined with fulvestrant regimen was 187,958.06 yuan/QALY,which was below the willingness-to-pay(WTP)threshold of three times China's per capita gross domestic product(GDP)in 2024(287,247 yuan/QALY).The one-way sensitivity analysis revealed that the ICER was primarily influenced by the proportion of patients receiving subsequent treatments with the combination therapy or fulvestrant monotherapy,and the utility value of progression-free survival.The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that at a WTP threshold of three times China's per capita GDP in China in 2024(287,247 yuan/QALY),the probability of the ribociclib combination therapy being cost-effective was 100%.Conclusion In the context of the Chinese healthcare system,the combination therapy of ribociclib and fulvestrant is more cost-effective than fulvestrant monotherapy for the second-line treatment of postmenopausal patients with HR+/HER2-advanced metastatic breast cancer.
3.Influencing factors and prognostic analysis of early recurrence after gastrectomy for gastric cancer: a national multicenter study
Jun LU ; Chenbin LYU ; Yi CAO ; Jie CHEN ; Sen LI ; Lisheng CAI ; Shuanhu WANG ; Fanghui DING ; Zhengrong LI ; Yuzhou ZHAO ; Fenglin LIU
Chinese Journal of Digestive Surgery 2025;24(3):350-356
Objective:To investigate the influencing factors and prognosis of early recurrence after gastrectomy for gastric cancer.Methods:The retrospective cohort study was conducted. The clinicopathological data of 2 078 patients who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer at six medical centers across China, including Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center et al, between January 2012 and June 2023 were collected. There were 1 449 males and 629 females, aged (59±11) years. Patients were classified as early recurrence and late recurrence based on the time of post-operative recurrence. Observation indicators: (1) comparison of clinicopathological characteristics between gastric cancer patients with different recurrence types; (2) recurrence and metastasis of tumor; (3) survival of patients after postoperative recurrence of gastric cancer; (4) analysis of influencing factors for early recurrence after gastrectomy for gastric cancer. Comparison of measurement data with normal distribution between groups was conducted using the independent sample t test. Comparison of measurement data with skewed distribution between groups was conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. Comparison of count data between groups was conducted using the chi-square test. Comparison of ordinal data between groups was conducted using the rank sum test. Multivariate analysis was conducted using the Logistic regression model. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate survival rate and plot survival curve, and Log-rank test was used for survival analysis. Results:(1) Comparison of clinicopathological characteristics between gastric cancer patients with different recurrence types. Among the 2 078 patients, 1 452 cases had early recurrence and 626 cases had late recurrence. There were significant differences in preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen, preoperative CA19-9, preoperative CA72-4, preoperative albumin, tumor diameter, neoadjuvant therapy, R 0 resection, combined organ resection, scope of gastric resection, nerve and vessel infiltration, degree of tumor differentiation, pathological N staging, pathological TNM staging between early and late recurrence patients ( P<0.05). (2) Recurrence and metastasis of tumor. Among the 2 078 patients, 200 cases had local recurrence, 1 213 cases had hematogenous metastases, 392 cases had distant lymph node metastases, and 731 cases had peritoneal metastases. Among the 1 452 early recurrence patients, 142 cases had local recurrence, 834 cases had hematogenous metastases, 289 cases had distant lymph node metastases, and 507 cases had peritoneal metastases. Among the 626 late recurrence patients, 58 cases had local recurrence, 379 cases had hematogenous metastases, 103 cases had distant lymph node metastases, and 224 cases had peritoneal metastases. One patient may have multiple forms of recurrence and metastasis. There was no significant difference in the above indica-tors between early and late recurrence patients ( χ2=0.13, 1.74, 3.40, 0.14, P>0.05). (3) Survival of patients after postoperative recurrence of gastric cancer. All 2 078 patients were followed up until death after recurrence, with a follow-up time of 31(range, 9?147)months. The 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates after recurrence were 33.5%, 17.2%, 10.1%, and 3.3% in early recurrence patients, versus 44.2%, 21.6%, 12.8%, and 5.8% in late recurrence patients, respectively, showing a significant difference in overall survival after recurrence between the two groups ( hazard ratio=0.84, 95% confidence interval as 0.76?0.92, P<0.05). (4) Analysis of influencing factors for early recurrence after gastrectomy for gastric cancer. Results of multivariate analysis showed that combined organ resection, total gastrectomy, pathological TNM staging as stage Ⅲ were independent risk factors for early recurrence after gastrectomy for gastric cancer ( odds ratio=1.31, 1.32, 1.34, 95% confidence interval as 1.01?1.70, 1.06?1.65, 1.05?1.71, P<0.05) and normal preoperative tumor markers, neoadjuvant therapy, R 0 resection were independent protective factors for early recurrence ( odds ratio=0.61, 0.50, 0.38, 95% confidence interval as 0.49?0.76, 0.35?0.72, 0.25?0.58, P<0.05). Conclusions:Compared with patients with late recurrence after gastric cancer surgery, patients with early recurrence have a poor prognosis, in which liver metastases is more common. Combine organ resection, total gastrectomy, pathological TNM staging as stage Ⅲ are independent risk factors for early recurrence, and normal preoperative tumor markers, neoadjuvant therapy, R 0 resection are independent protective factors for early recurrence after gastrectomy for gastric cancer.
4.Analysis of clinical and neonatal outcomes of the second microTESE-ICSI treatment in nonobstructive azoospermia patients
Sen QIAO ; Lei WANG ; Jie YANG ; Liang ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Reproduction and Contraception 2025;45(7):653-657
Objective:To investigate the clinical and neonatal outcomes of nonobstructive azoospermia (NOA) patients undergoing a second microdissection testicular sperm extraction (microTESE) combined with intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI).Methods:A retrospective self-controll study and a cohort study were conducted in 29 NOA patients who underwent the second microTESE-ICSI treatments at the Assisted Reproduction Center of Northwest Women's and Children's Hospital between October 2013 and December 2024, with successful sperm retrieval in the first microTESE for all included patients. The sperm retrieval rate (SRR), the two-pronuclei (2PN) rate, the high-quality embryo rate, the transferable embryo rate, the blastocyst formation rate, the pregnancy and neonatal outcomes between the two microTESE-ICSI cycles were analyzed. According to whether sperm was detected during the second microTESE, the patients were divided into detected sperm group ( n=22) and without detected sperm group ( n=7). The surgical interval, preoperative hormone levels, testicular volume, and patient pathological type were compared between the two groups. Patients who had achieved at least one biochemical pregnancy in the first cycle were classified as the pregnancy group, while those who had not achieved a biochemical pregnancy were classified as the non-pregnancy group, and the pregnancy outcomes of patients during the second microTESE-ICSI treatment were compared between the two groups. Previous surgical recordings were also analyzed. Results:The SRR of the second microTESE was 75.9% (22/29). There were no statistically significant differencs in surgical interval, preoperative hormones level, testicular volume, and patient pathological type between detected sperm group and without detected group during the second examination (all P>0.05). SRR showed no difference between idiopathic and non-idiopathic NOA ( P>0.05). 2PN rate, high-quality embryo rate, transferable embryo rate, blastocyst formation rate did not differ statistically between the two cycles (all P>0.05). Among patients completing follow-up in the second microTESE-ICSI cycle, cumulative pregnancy and live birth rates after all embryos transfer were 52.4% (11/21) and 42.9% (9/21), respectively. Further analysis revealed that patients in pregnancy group [75.0% (6/8)] had significantly higher cumulative live birth rate than that in non-pregnancy group [23.1% (3/13), P=0.032] in the second cycle. No birth defects were observed in neonates. Surgical video review suggested that excessive microdissection and low-magnification electrocautery hemostasis might increase intratesticular scarring. Conclusion:For NOA patients with failed initial microTESE-ICSI, the second treatment can effectively retrieve sperm and achieve favorable pregnancy and neonatal outcomes. Patients with prior biochemical pregnancy may benefit from higher live birth rate in subsequent cycles.
5.Influencing factors and prognostic analysis of early recurrence after gastrectomy for gastric cancer: a national multicenter study
Jun LU ; Chenbin LYU ; Yi CAO ; Jie CHEN ; Sen LI ; Lisheng CAI ; Shuanhu WANG ; Fanghui DING ; Zhengrong LI ; Yuzhou ZHAO ; Fenglin LIU
Chinese Journal of Digestive Surgery 2025;24(3):350-356
Objective:To investigate the influencing factors and prognosis of early recurrence after gastrectomy for gastric cancer.Methods:The retrospective cohort study was conducted. The clinicopathological data of 2 078 patients who underwent gastrectomy for gastric cancer at six medical centers across China, including Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center et al, between January 2012 and June 2023 were collected. There were 1 449 males and 629 females, aged (59±11) years. Patients were classified as early recurrence and late recurrence based on the time of post-operative recurrence. Observation indicators: (1) comparison of clinicopathological characteristics between gastric cancer patients with different recurrence types; (2) recurrence and metastasis of tumor; (3) survival of patients after postoperative recurrence of gastric cancer; (4) analysis of influencing factors for early recurrence after gastrectomy for gastric cancer. Comparison of measurement data with normal distribution between groups was conducted using the independent sample t test. Comparison of measurement data with skewed distribution between groups was conducted using the Mann-Whitney U test. Comparison of count data between groups was conducted using the chi-square test. Comparison of ordinal data between groups was conducted using the rank sum test. Multivariate analysis was conducted using the Logistic regression model. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate survival rate and plot survival curve, and Log-rank test was used for survival analysis. Results:(1) Comparison of clinicopathological characteristics between gastric cancer patients with different recurrence types. Among the 2 078 patients, 1 452 cases had early recurrence and 626 cases had late recurrence. There were significant differences in preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen, preoperative CA19-9, preoperative CA72-4, preoperative albumin, tumor diameter, neoadjuvant therapy, R 0 resection, combined organ resection, scope of gastric resection, nerve and vessel infiltration, degree of tumor differentiation, pathological N staging, pathological TNM staging between early and late recurrence patients ( P<0.05). (2) Recurrence and metastasis of tumor. Among the 2 078 patients, 200 cases had local recurrence, 1 213 cases had hematogenous metastases, 392 cases had distant lymph node metastases, and 731 cases had peritoneal metastases. Among the 1 452 early recurrence patients, 142 cases had local recurrence, 834 cases had hematogenous metastases, 289 cases had distant lymph node metastases, and 507 cases had peritoneal metastases. Among the 626 late recurrence patients, 58 cases had local recurrence, 379 cases had hematogenous metastases, 103 cases had distant lymph node metastases, and 224 cases had peritoneal metastases. One patient may have multiple forms of recurrence and metastasis. There was no significant difference in the above indica-tors between early and late recurrence patients ( χ2=0.13, 1.74, 3.40, 0.14, P>0.05). (3) Survival of patients after postoperative recurrence of gastric cancer. All 2 078 patients were followed up until death after recurrence, with a follow-up time of 31(range, 9?147)months. The 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates after recurrence were 33.5%, 17.2%, 10.1%, and 3.3% in early recurrence patients, versus 44.2%, 21.6%, 12.8%, and 5.8% in late recurrence patients, respectively, showing a significant difference in overall survival after recurrence between the two groups ( hazard ratio=0.84, 95% confidence interval as 0.76?0.92, P<0.05). (4) Analysis of influencing factors for early recurrence after gastrectomy for gastric cancer. Results of multivariate analysis showed that combined organ resection, total gastrectomy, pathological TNM staging as stage Ⅲ were independent risk factors for early recurrence after gastrectomy for gastric cancer ( odds ratio=1.31, 1.32, 1.34, 95% confidence interval as 1.01?1.70, 1.06?1.65, 1.05?1.71, P<0.05) and normal preoperative tumor markers, neoadjuvant therapy, R 0 resection were independent protective factors for early recurrence ( odds ratio=0.61, 0.50, 0.38, 95% confidence interval as 0.49?0.76, 0.35?0.72, 0.25?0.58, P<0.05). Conclusions:Compared with patients with late recurrence after gastric cancer surgery, patients with early recurrence have a poor prognosis, in which liver metastases is more common. Combine organ resection, total gastrectomy, pathological TNM staging as stage Ⅲ are independent risk factors for early recurrence, and normal preoperative tumor markers, neoadjuvant therapy, R 0 resection are independent protective factors for early recurrence after gastrectomy for gastric cancer.
6.Clinical efficacy and safety of laparoscopic abdominoperineal resection with pelvicperitoneum colsure for low rectal cancer:a meta-analysis
Fei GAO ; Bin HAN ; Hao-yong ZHAO ; Yong-han ZHANG ; Mao-sen GUO ; Hao WANG ; Shang-jie GUO
Chinese Journal of Current Advances in General Surgery 2025;28(4):271-278
Objective:To investigatetheclinicalefficacy and satetyoflaparoscopic abdominoperineal resection with pelvicperitoneum colsure for low rectal cancer.Methods:A comprehesive search was conducted across multiple da-tabases,including the Cochrane Library、PubMed、Embase、CBM、VIP、CNKI、and WanFang Data,focusing on studies re-lated to pelvic peritoneum colsure(PPC)-oriented laparoscopic abdominoperineal resection from database inception to July,2024.Then,meta-analysis was performed using RevMan 5.3 software.Results:A total of 12 studies involving 999 patients were included.The results showed that there was no significant difference in intraoperative blood loss.The laparoscopic pelvicperitoneum colsure takes a longer time,with a statistically significant difference(WMD=12.37,95%CI=2.27~22.46,P=0.02),but the postoperative exhaust time and hospitalization time are shorter,with a statistically significant difference(WMD=0.40,95%CI=0.07~0.72,P=0.02;WMD=-2.36,95%CI=-3.33~-1.38,P<0.00001).In terms of postoperative complications,the overall complication rate was higher in the group that did not undergo pelvic-peritoneum colsure,with a statistically significant difference(OR=0.12,95%CI=0.08~0.18,P<0.00001).The incidence of postoperative intestinal obstruction,perineal incisional hernia,pelvic effusion infection,and radiation enteritis was higher,and the differences were statistically significant(OR=0.24,95%CI=0.13~0.45,P<0.00001,OR=0.23,95%CI=0.11~0.49,P=0.0001,OR=0.27,95%CI=0.14~0.51,P<0.0001,OR=0.24,95%CI:0.07~0.81,P=0.03).Conclusion:In lapa-roscopic abdominoperineal resection,closing the pelvicperitoneum has lower postoperative complications,shorter post-operative exhaust time and hospitalization time,and longer operation time,which has better clinical efficacy and safety.
7.Does 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Predict Incident Diabetic Nephropathy and Retinopathy in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus? Results from Two Prospective Cohort Studies in Southern China
Jiaheng CHEN ; Yu Ting LI ; Zimin NIU ; Zhanpeng HE ; Yao Jie XIE ; Jose HERNANDEZ ; Wenyong HUANG ; Harry H.X. WANG ;
Diabetes & Metabolism Journal 2025;49(2):298-310
Background:
Diabetic macrovascular and microvascular complications often coexist and may share similar risk factors and pathological pathways. We aimed to investigate whether 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, which is commonly assessed in diabetes management, can predict incident diabetic nephropathy (DN) and retinopathy (DR) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).
Methods:
This prospective cohort study enrolled 2,891 patients with clinically diagnosed T2DM who were free of ASCVD, nephropathy, or retinopathy at baseline in the Guangzhou (2017–2022) and Shaoguan (2019–2021) Diabetic Eye Study in southern China. The 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated by the Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR) equations. Multivariable- adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were developed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate predictive capability.
Results:
During follow-up, a total of 171 cases of DN and 532 cases of DR were documented. Each 1% increment in 10-year ASCVD risk was associated with increased risk of DN (pooled HR, 1.122; 95% CI, 1.094 to 1.150) but not DR (pooled HR, 0.996; 95% CI, 0.979 to 1.013). The model demonstrated acceptable performance in predicting new-onset DN (pooled AUC, 0.670; 95% CI, 0.628 to 0.715). These results were consistent across cohorts and subgroups, with the association appearing to be more pronounced in women.
Conclusion
Ten-year ASCVD risk predicts incident DN but not DR in our study population with T2DM. Regular monitoring of ASCVD risk in routine diabetes practice may add to the ability to enhance population-based prevention for both macrovascular and microvascular diseases, particularly among women.
8.Does 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Predict Incident Diabetic Nephropathy and Retinopathy in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus? Results from Two Prospective Cohort Studies in Southern China
Jiaheng CHEN ; Yu Ting LI ; Zimin NIU ; Zhanpeng HE ; Yao Jie XIE ; Jose HERNANDEZ ; Wenyong HUANG ; Harry H.X. WANG ;
Diabetes & Metabolism Journal 2025;49(2):298-310
Background:
Diabetic macrovascular and microvascular complications often coexist and may share similar risk factors and pathological pathways. We aimed to investigate whether 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, which is commonly assessed in diabetes management, can predict incident diabetic nephropathy (DN) and retinopathy (DR) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).
Methods:
This prospective cohort study enrolled 2,891 patients with clinically diagnosed T2DM who were free of ASCVD, nephropathy, or retinopathy at baseline in the Guangzhou (2017–2022) and Shaoguan (2019–2021) Diabetic Eye Study in southern China. The 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated by the Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR) equations. Multivariable- adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were developed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate predictive capability.
Results:
During follow-up, a total of 171 cases of DN and 532 cases of DR were documented. Each 1% increment in 10-year ASCVD risk was associated with increased risk of DN (pooled HR, 1.122; 95% CI, 1.094 to 1.150) but not DR (pooled HR, 0.996; 95% CI, 0.979 to 1.013). The model demonstrated acceptable performance in predicting new-onset DN (pooled AUC, 0.670; 95% CI, 0.628 to 0.715). These results were consistent across cohorts and subgroups, with the association appearing to be more pronounced in women.
Conclusion
Ten-year ASCVD risk predicts incident DN but not DR in our study population with T2DM. Regular monitoring of ASCVD risk in routine diabetes practice may add to the ability to enhance population-based prevention for both macrovascular and microvascular diseases, particularly among women.
9.Does 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Predict Incident Diabetic Nephropathy and Retinopathy in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus? Results from Two Prospective Cohort Studies in Southern China
Jiaheng CHEN ; Yu Ting LI ; Zimin NIU ; Zhanpeng HE ; Yao Jie XIE ; Jose HERNANDEZ ; Wenyong HUANG ; Harry H.X. WANG ;
Diabetes & Metabolism Journal 2025;49(2):298-310
Background:
Diabetic macrovascular and microvascular complications often coexist and may share similar risk factors and pathological pathways. We aimed to investigate whether 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, which is commonly assessed in diabetes management, can predict incident diabetic nephropathy (DN) and retinopathy (DR) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).
Methods:
This prospective cohort study enrolled 2,891 patients with clinically diagnosed T2DM who were free of ASCVD, nephropathy, or retinopathy at baseline in the Guangzhou (2017–2022) and Shaoguan (2019–2021) Diabetic Eye Study in southern China. The 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated by the Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR) equations. Multivariable- adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were developed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate predictive capability.
Results:
During follow-up, a total of 171 cases of DN and 532 cases of DR were documented. Each 1% increment in 10-year ASCVD risk was associated with increased risk of DN (pooled HR, 1.122; 95% CI, 1.094 to 1.150) but not DR (pooled HR, 0.996; 95% CI, 0.979 to 1.013). The model demonstrated acceptable performance in predicting new-onset DN (pooled AUC, 0.670; 95% CI, 0.628 to 0.715). These results were consistent across cohorts and subgroups, with the association appearing to be more pronounced in women.
Conclusion
Ten-year ASCVD risk predicts incident DN but not DR in our study population with T2DM. Regular monitoring of ASCVD risk in routine diabetes practice may add to the ability to enhance population-based prevention for both macrovascular and microvascular diseases, particularly among women.
10.Does 10-Year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Predict Incident Diabetic Nephropathy and Retinopathy in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus? Results from Two Prospective Cohort Studies in Southern China
Jiaheng CHEN ; Yu Ting LI ; Zimin NIU ; Zhanpeng HE ; Yao Jie XIE ; Jose HERNANDEZ ; Wenyong HUANG ; Harry H.X. WANG ;
Diabetes & Metabolism Journal 2025;49(2):298-310
Background:
Diabetic macrovascular and microvascular complications often coexist and may share similar risk factors and pathological pathways. We aimed to investigate whether 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, which is commonly assessed in diabetes management, can predict incident diabetic nephropathy (DN) and retinopathy (DR) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).
Methods:
This prospective cohort study enrolled 2,891 patients with clinically diagnosed T2DM who were free of ASCVD, nephropathy, or retinopathy at baseline in the Guangzhou (2017–2022) and Shaoguan (2019–2021) Diabetic Eye Study in southern China. The 10-year ASCVD risk was calculated by the Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China (China-PAR) equations. Multivariable- adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were developed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate predictive capability.
Results:
During follow-up, a total of 171 cases of DN and 532 cases of DR were documented. Each 1% increment in 10-year ASCVD risk was associated with increased risk of DN (pooled HR, 1.122; 95% CI, 1.094 to 1.150) but not DR (pooled HR, 0.996; 95% CI, 0.979 to 1.013). The model demonstrated acceptable performance in predicting new-onset DN (pooled AUC, 0.670; 95% CI, 0.628 to 0.715). These results were consistent across cohorts and subgroups, with the association appearing to be more pronounced in women.
Conclusion
Ten-year ASCVD risk predicts incident DN but not DR in our study population with T2DM. Regular monitoring of ASCVD risk in routine diabetes practice may add to the ability to enhance population-based prevention for both macrovascular and microvascular diseases, particularly among women.


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