1.Ameliorative Effect of Wendantang Combined with Danshenyin and Dushentang on Ischemic Heart Disease with Phlegm-stasis Syndrome in Mice Based on Circulating Monocytes
Fenghe YANG ; Ziqi TIAN ; Zhiqian SONG ; Shitao PENG ; Wenjie LU ; Tao LIN ; Chun WANG ; Zhangchi NING
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(3):22-32
ObjectiveTo investigate the ameliorative effect of Wendantang combined with Danshenyin and Dushentang (WDD) on mice with ischemic heart disease (IHD) presenting phlegm-stasis syndrome based on the inflammatory phenotype and differentiation of circulating monocytes. MethodsA model of IHD with phlegm-stasis syndrome was established using left anterior descending coronary artery ligation supplemented with a high-fat diet. Eighty model mice were randomly assigned to the model group, WDD low-dose group (WDD-L), WDD medium-dose group (WDD-M), WDD high-dose group (WDD-H), and atorvastatin calcium tablet group, with 16 mice in each group. An additional 16 C57BL/6J mice were designated as the sham-operation group. The WDD groups received intragastric administration at doses of 8.91, 17.81, 35.62 g·kg-1, and the atorvastatin calcium tablet group received the corresponding drug at 1.3 mg·kg-1, twice daily. The sham-operation and model groups were given the same volume of pure water by gavage each day. After 5 consecutive weeks of administration, the cardiac index was calculated. Cardiac function was assessed by echocardiography. Myocardial histopathology was examined by hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining. Serum N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (pro-BNP) content was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Hemorheological parameters were analyzed using an automated hemorheology analyzer. Serum levels of total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) were determined using an automated biochemical analyzer. Changes in circulating monocytes were detected by flow cytometry. Mouse bone marrow mononuclear cells were isolated in vitro and divided into blank group, model serum group, WDD-L drug-containing serum group, WDD-M drug-containing serum group, and WDD-H drug-containing serum group. CD36 expression and macrophage differentiation in each group were assessed by flow cytometry. The mechanism by which WDD mediates circulating monocyte differentiation was further explored using CD36 knockdown/overexpression RAW264.7 cell lines. ResultsCompared with the sham-operation group, the model group showed a significantly increased cardiac index (P0.01), significantly decreased fractional shortening (FS) (P0.01), and significantly increased left ventricular end-diastolic internal diameter (LVDD) and left ventricular end-systolic internal diameter (LVDS) (P0.01). Cardiomyocytes exhibited marked deformation and necrosis with inflammatory cell infiltration. Serum pro-BNP levels were significantly elevated (P0.01), and whole-blood viscosity (BV) at high, medium, and low shear rates was significantly increased (P0.01). Compared with the model group, the WDD groups showed significantly reduced cardiac index (P0.05, P0.01), significantly increased FS (P0.05, P0.01), significantly decreased LVDD and LVDS (P0.01), markedly improved cardiomyocyte morphology, significantly reduced inflammatory infiltration, significantly decreased serum pro-BNP levels (P0.01), and significantly decreased BV at high, medium, and low shear rates (P0.01), with the most pronounced improvement observed in the WDD-M group. Compared with the sham-operation group, TC, TG, and LDL levels were significantly increased in the model group (P0.05, P0.01), while HDL levels were significantly decreased (P0.05). After WDD-H treatment, TC, TG, and LDL levels were significantly reduced and HDL levels were significantly increased in mice (P0.05, P0.01). Compared with the sham-operation group, classical monocytes in blood and bone marrow and intermediate monocytes in blood were significantly increased in the model group (P0.01), whereas intermediate monocytes in bone marrow and non-classical monocytes in blood were significantly decreased (P0.01). After WDD administration, all circulating monocyte subsets in blood and bone marrow were significantly alleviated (P0.05, P0.01), with the WDD-M group showing the optimal effect. In vitro, compared with the blank group, CD36 expression on bone marrow monocytes and the proportion of differentiated macrophages were significantly increased in the model serum group (P0.01), and CD36 expression was significantly upregulated on RAW264.7 cells (P0.01). Compared with the model serum group, all drug-containing serum groups exhibited significantly reduced CD36 expression on bone marrow monocytes and significantly reduced macrophage differentiation (P0.01). WDD downregulated CD36 expression in both CD36 knockdown and overexpression RAW264.7 cell lines (P0.05, P0.01), with the strongest regulatory effect observed in the WDD-M drug-containing serum group. ConclusionWDD can significantly improve the manifestations of phlegm-stasis syndrome in IHD mice and reduce the proportion of classical circulating monocytes. Its mechanism may be related to the inhibition of CD36 expression on classical circulating monocytes.
2.Clinical Efficacy of Qi-regulating and Phlegm-removing Method(Liu Junzitang Combined with Linggang Wuwei Jiangxintang) in Treating AECOPD with Increased EOS
Renjie HUANG ; Wangqin YU ; Wuyinuo TANG ; Hong SONG ; Lyuyuan HE ; Wenbo LIN ; Guanyi WU ; Hang HUANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(3):149-156
ObjectiveTo assess the efficacy and safety of the Qi-regulating and phlegm-removing method(Liu Junzitang Combined with Linggang Wuwei Jiangxintang) for treating acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) with increased eosinophils (EOS). MethodsSixty-eight AECOPD patients with increased EOS who were hospitalized in the Department of Pulmonary Diseases of Jinhua Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital from April 2023 to April 2024 were recruited and randomly assigned to an experimental group (EG) or a control group (CG). Both groups received conventional Western medicine, with the EG additionally receiving Liujunzitang and Linggan Wuwei Jiangxintang. The therapeutic efficacy indicators were measured after the treatment. The main therapeutic efficacy indicators included partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2) and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PaCO2). The secondary efficacy indicators included the TCM symptom scores, the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) score, the Modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) Dyspnea Scale score, and the length of hospital stay. The indicators were measured at baseline and on days 3 and 7 of intervention. The safety was evaluated based on the adverse events. ResultsBaseline characteristics were not statistically different between the two groups. Compared with CG, EG showed no significant difference in PaO2 (P=0.773), PaCO2 (P=0.632) and or CAT score (P=0.336) at on day 3 but better PaO2 (P=0.004), PaCO2 (P=0.008), and CAT score (P=0.013) were significantly better at on day 7. Compared with CGAfter treatment, EG had lower TCM syndrome scores of than CG EG on day 3 (P=0.005) and day 7 were significantly decreased (P0.001). There was no significant difference in mMRC score between the two groups on day 3 (P=0.514) and day 7 (P=0.176) as wasor the length of hospital stay (P=0.915). The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) showed that compared with CG, EG had significant improvements over time in PaO2, PaCO2, TCM syndrome symptom scores, CAT score, and mMRC score. ConclusionRegulating qi Qi and removing phlegm combined with conventional Western medicine can significantly alleviateimprove the clinical symptoms and improve the lung function of AECOPD patients with increased EOS increased AECOPDwhich has and demonstrates good safety.
3.Analysis of Toxicity Characteristics and Rational Drug Use of Polygoni Multiflori Radix
Qiongyi FU ; Yupu QI ; Yu HUAN ; Yagang SONG ; Xiangxiang WU ; Mingsan MIAO
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(3):222-231
ObjectivePolygoni Multiflori Radix is a commonly used tonic traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) in clinical practice, but liver injury has often been reported in recent years. Some related preparations containing Polygoni Multiflori Radix have been reported by the National Medical Products Administration many times for the risk of liver injury. This has caused extensive discussion on the potential toxicity of TCM in China and abroad, which has limited the clinical use of Polygoni Multiflori Radix to some extent. To understand the adverse reactions of Polygoni Multiflori Radix, the safe and rational use of Polygoni Multiflori Radix in clinical practice was discussed. MethodsThe pharmacovigilance thought of modern Chinese medicine and the TCM pharmacovigilance system framework of ''identification of poison, use of poison, anti-poison, and detoxification'' were employed to mine the relevant toxicity records, usage and dosage, processing compatibility, and contraindication of taking Polygoni Multiflori Radix in ancient books. The drug safety information of Polygoni Multiflori Radix was summarized by comparing with modern reports. ResultsA total of 74 ancient books related to Polygoni Multiflori Radix were included, suggesting that the toxicity of Polygoni Multiflori Radix was recognized in ancient times. The main chemical components of Polygoni Multiflori Radix had both efficacy and toxicity, and the adverse reactions may be related to long-term use, excessive use, and individual differences. The results showed that the toxic components of Polygoni Multiflori Radix could be reduced by peeling, steaming with black beans, and processing without iron tools. The toxic effects of Polygoni Multiflori Radix could be reduced by the compatibility of Polygoni Multiflori Radix with Poria, Psoraleae Fructus, and Cistanches Herba. ConclusionReasonable dosage, standard processing, correct compatibility, and syndrome differentiation are the key points to standardize the use of Polygoni Multiflori Radix and reduce the incidence of adverse reactions. Clinically, the toxicity classification of TCM should be strengthened, and the susceptible population should be prioritized. The detection indicators and early warning mechanisms should be improved, and precise drug dosage and course of treatment should be guaranteed. These measures can ensure the safe use of Polygoni Multiflori Radix.
4.Ameliorative Effect of Wendantang Combined with Danshenyin and Dushentang on Ischemic Heart Disease with Phlegm-stasis Syndrome in Mice Based on Circulating Monocytes
Fenghe YANG ; Ziqi TIAN ; Zhiqian SONG ; Shitao PENG ; Wenjie LU ; Tao LIN ; Chun WANG ; Zhangchi NING
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(3):22-32
ObjectiveTo investigate the ameliorative effect of Wendantang combined with Danshenyin and Dushentang (WDD) on mice with ischemic heart disease (IHD) presenting phlegm-stasis syndrome based on the inflammatory phenotype and differentiation of circulating monocytes. MethodsA model of IHD with phlegm-stasis syndrome was established using left anterior descending coronary artery ligation supplemented with a high-fat diet. Eighty model mice were randomly assigned to the model group, WDD low-dose group (WDD-L), WDD medium-dose group (WDD-M), WDD high-dose group (WDD-H), and atorvastatin calcium tablet group, with 16 mice in each group. An additional 16 C57BL/6J mice were designated as the sham-operation group. The WDD groups received intragastric administration at doses of 8.91, 17.81, 35.62 g·kg-1, and the atorvastatin calcium tablet group received the corresponding drug at 1.3 mg·kg-1, twice daily. The sham-operation and model groups were given the same volume of pure water by gavage each day. After 5 consecutive weeks of administration, the cardiac index was calculated. Cardiac function was assessed by echocardiography. Myocardial histopathology was examined by hematoxylin-eosin (HE) staining. Serum N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (pro-BNP) content was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Hemorheological parameters were analyzed using an automated hemorheology analyzer. Serum levels of total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) were determined using an automated biochemical analyzer. Changes in circulating monocytes were detected by flow cytometry. Mouse bone marrow mononuclear cells were isolated in vitro and divided into blank group, model serum group, WDD-L drug-containing serum group, WDD-M drug-containing serum group, and WDD-H drug-containing serum group. CD36 expression and macrophage differentiation in each group were assessed by flow cytometry. The mechanism by which WDD mediates circulating monocyte differentiation was further explored using CD36 knockdown/overexpression RAW264.7 cell lines. ResultsCompared with the sham-operation group, the model group showed a significantly increased cardiac index (P<0.01), significantly decreased fractional shortening (FS) (P<0.01), and significantly increased left ventricular end-diastolic internal diameter (LVDD) and left ventricular end-systolic internal diameter (LVDS) (P<0.01). Cardiomyocytes exhibited marked deformation and necrosis with inflammatory cell infiltration. Serum pro-BNP levels were significantly elevated (P<0.01), and whole-blood viscosity (BV) at high, medium, and low shear rates was significantly increased (P<0.01). Compared with the model group, the WDD groups showed significantly reduced cardiac index (P<0.05, P<0.01), significantly increased FS (P<0.05, P<0.01), significantly decreased LVDD and LVDS (P<0.01), markedly improved cardiomyocyte morphology, significantly reduced inflammatory infiltration, significantly decreased serum pro-BNP levels (P<0.01), and significantly decreased BV at high, medium, and low shear rates (P<0.01), with the most pronounced improvement observed in the WDD-M group. Compared with the sham-operation group, TC, TG, and LDL levels were significantly increased in the model group (P<0.05, P<0.01), while HDL levels were significantly decreased (P<0.05). After WDD-H treatment, TC, TG, and LDL levels were significantly reduced and HDL levels were significantly increased in mice (P<0.05, P<0.01). Compared with the sham-operation group, classical monocytes in blood and bone marrow and intermediate monocytes in blood were significantly increased in the model group (P<0.01), whereas intermediate monocytes in bone marrow and non-classical monocytes in blood were significantly decreased (P<0.01). After WDD administration, all circulating monocyte subsets in blood and bone marrow were significantly alleviated (P<0.05, P<0.01), with the WDD-M group showing the optimal effect. In vitro, compared with the blank group, CD36 expression on bone marrow monocytes and the proportion of differentiated macrophages were significantly increased in the model serum group (P<0.01), and CD36 expression was significantly upregulated on RAW264.7 cells (P<0.01). Compared with the model serum group, all drug-containing serum groups exhibited significantly reduced CD36 expression on bone marrow monocytes and significantly reduced macrophage differentiation (P<0.01). WDD downregulated CD36 expression in both CD36 knockdown and overexpression RAW264.7 cell lines (P<0.05, P<0.01), with the strongest regulatory effect observed in the WDD-M drug-containing serum group. ConclusionWDD can significantly improve the manifestations of phlegm-stasis syndrome in IHD mice and reduce the proportion of classical circulating monocytes. Its mechanism may be related to the inhibition of CD36 expression on classical circulating monocytes.
5.Clinical Efficacy of Qi-regulating and Phlegm-removing Method(Liu Junzitang Combined with Linggang Wuwei Jiangxintang) in Treating AECOPD with Increased EOS
Renjie HUANG ; Wangqin YU ; Wuyinuo TANG ; Hong SONG ; Lyuyuan HE ; Wenbo LIN ; Guanyi WU ; Hang HUANG
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(3):149-156
ObjectiveTo assess the efficacy and safety of the Qi-regulating and phlegm-removing method(Liu Junzitang Combined with Linggang Wuwei Jiangxintang) for treating acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) with increased eosinophils (EOS). MethodsSixty-eight AECOPD patients with increased EOS who were hospitalized in the Department of Pulmonary Diseases of Jinhua Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital from April 2023 to April 2024 were recruited and randomly assigned to an experimental group (EG) or a control group (CG). Both groups received conventional Western medicine, with the EG additionally receiving Liujunzitang and Linggan Wuwei Jiangxintang. The therapeutic efficacy indicators were measured after the treatment. The main therapeutic efficacy indicators included partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2) and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PaCO2). The secondary efficacy indicators included the TCM symptom scores, the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) score, the Modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) Dyspnea Scale score, and the length of hospital stay. The indicators were measured at baseline and on days 3 and 7 of intervention. The safety was evaluated based on the adverse events. ResultsBaseline characteristics were not statistically different between the two groups. Compared with CG, EG showed no significant difference in PaO2 (P=0.773), PaCO2 (P=0.632) and or CAT score (P=0.336) at on day 3 but better PaO2 (P=0.004), PaCO2 (P=0.008), and CAT score (P=0.013) were significantly better at on day 7. Compared with CGAfter treatment, EG had lower TCM syndrome scores of than CG EG on day 3 (P=0.005) and day 7 were significantly decreased (P0.001). There was no significant difference in mMRC score between the two groups on day 3 (P=0.514) and day 7 (P=0.176) as wasor the length of hospital stay (P=0.915). The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) showed that compared with CG, EG had significant improvements over time in PaO2, PaCO2, TCM syndrome symptom scores, CAT score, and mMRC score. ConclusionRegulating qi Qi and removing phlegm combined with conventional Western medicine can significantly alleviateimprove the clinical symptoms and improve the lung function of AECOPD patients with increased EOS increased AECOPDwhich has and demonstrates good safety.
6.Analysis of Toxicity Characteristics and Rational Drug Use of Polygoni Multiflori Radix
Qiongyi FU ; Yupu QI ; Yu HUAN ; Yagang SONG ; Xiangxiang WU ; Mingsan MIAO
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(3):222-231
ObjectivePolygoni Multiflori Radix is a commonly used tonic traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) in clinical practice, but liver injury has often been reported in recent years. Some related preparations containing Polygoni Multiflori Radix have been reported by the National Medical Products Administration many times for the risk of liver injury. This has caused extensive discussion on the potential toxicity of TCM in China and abroad, which has limited the clinical use of Polygoni Multiflori Radix to some extent. To understand the adverse reactions of Polygoni Multiflori Radix, the safe and rational use of Polygoni Multiflori Radix in clinical practice was discussed. MethodsThe pharmacovigilance thought of modern Chinese medicine and the TCM pharmacovigilance system framework of ''identification of poison, use of poison, anti-poison, and detoxification'' were employed to mine the relevant toxicity records, usage and dosage, processing compatibility, and contraindication of taking Polygoni Multiflori Radix in ancient books. The drug safety information of Polygoni Multiflori Radix was summarized by comparing with modern reports. ResultsA total of 74 ancient books related to Polygoni Multiflori Radix were included, suggesting that the toxicity of Polygoni Multiflori Radix was recognized in ancient times. The main chemical components of Polygoni Multiflori Radix had both efficacy and toxicity, and the adverse reactions may be related to long-term use, excessive use, and individual differences. The results showed that the toxic components of Polygoni Multiflori Radix could be reduced by peeling, steaming with black beans, and processing without iron tools. The toxic effects of Polygoni Multiflori Radix could be reduced by the compatibility of Polygoni Multiflori Radix with Poria, Psoraleae Fructus, and Cistanches Herba. ConclusionReasonable dosage, standard processing, correct compatibility, and syndrome differentiation are the key points to standardize the use of Polygoni Multiflori Radix and reduce the incidence of adverse reactions. Clinically, the toxicity classification of TCM should be strengthened, and the susceptible population should be prioritized. The detection indicators and early warning mechanisms should be improved, and precise drug dosage and course of treatment should be guaranteed. These measures can ensure the safe use of Polygoni Multiflori Radix.
7.Study on the apoptosis-inducing effect of esculetin on acute myeloid leukemia HL-60 cells via regulating the AKT/SKP2/MTH1 pathway
Weihua SONG ; Fuying CHU ; Wei XIE ; Jinliang CHEN ; Ping ZHAO ; Hong QIU ; Jian TAO ; Xiang CHEN
China Pharmacy 2026;37(1):36-41
OBJECTIVE To investigate the apoptosis-inducing effect of esculetin (Esc) on acute myeloid leukemia (AML) HL-60 cells by regulating the protein kinase B (AKT)/S-phase kinase-associated protein 2 (SKP2)/MutT homolog 1 (MTH1) pathway. METHODS AML HL-60 cells were randomly divided into control group (routine culture), Esc low-concentration group (L-Esc group, 25 μmol/L Esc), Esc medium-concentration group (M-Esc group, 50 μmol/L Esc), Esc high-concentration group (H-Esc group, 100 μmol/L Esc), and high-concentration of Esc+ SC79 (AKT agonist) group (100 μmol/L Esc+5 μmol/L SC79). Cell proliferation in each group was detected by MTT assay and colony formation assay. The level of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in cells was measured by using the CM-H2DCFDA fluorescent probe. Cell apoptosis was analyzed by flow cytometry. Western blot assay was performed to detect the expression levels of apoptosis-related proteins [B-cell lymphoma 2 (Bcl-2), Bcl-2-associated X protein (Bax), cleaved caspase-3], AKT/SKP2/MTH1 pathway-related proteins (p-AKT, AKT, SKP2, MTH1), along with the upstream and downstream proteins of AKT phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K), cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 1 (P21) and cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 1B (P27). RESULTS Compared with control group, the cell viability, colony number, and the phosphorylation levels of AKT and PI3K proteins as well as protein expressions of SKP2, MTH1 and Bcl-2 were significantly decreased (P<0.05), while ROS level, apoptosis rate, and the expression levels of Bax, cleaved caspase-3, P21 and P27 proteins were significantly increased (P<0.05). Moreover, the effects of Esc exhibited concentration-dependence (P<0.05). Compared with H-Esc group, above indexes of high-concentration of Esc+ SC79 group were reversed significantly (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS Esc may promote massive ROS production and induce activation of apoptosis in HL-60 cells by inhibiting the AKT/SKP2/MTH1 pathway, thus inhibiting the proliferation of HL-60 cells.
8.Advances in the application of machine learning in the prediction of adverse drug reactions
Mengjia XU ; Lin SONG ; Tingting YANG ; Chenrong HUANG
China Pharmacy 2026;37(1):105-110
Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) refer to harmful or unintended reactions unrelated to the intended purpose of medication administration, which can lead to various issues such as accelerated disease progression and prolonged hospitalization. Traditional ADRs monitoring systems (such as spontaneous reporting systems) suffer from limitations such as low reporting rates and inconsistent data quality, which hinder the early prevention and control of ADRs. With the rapid development of information technology, machine learning has emerged as a powerful tool for management and decision-making of ADRs by leveraging its strengths in feature extraction and dynamic temporal pattern analysis. By reviewing relevant literature at home and abroad in recent years, this paper summarizes the progress in the application of machine learning for ADRs prediction. It is found that machine learning has gradually been applied to the early warning and risk prediction of ADRs in target organs such as the kidneys, liver, heart and bone marrow (such as acute kidney injury, drug-induced liver injury, and so on). Although machine learning demonstrates significant application potential in the field of ADRs prediction, it still faces limitations such as inadequate quality control of clinical data, lack of standardized criteria for model performance evaluation, insufficient model interpretability and difficulties in clinical translation. In the future, the development trend of machine learning in the field of ADRs prediction should follow a “technology-validation-integration” pathway to systematically promote the practical implementation of models.
9.Research progress on antibody-drug conjugates in the treatment of triple-negative breast cancer
Danna LIU ; Shuangshuang SONG ; Lu CHEN ; Yongqiang SUN ; Bo SUN ; Hanli ZHOU ; Xiaoli ZHAO ; Tiandong KONG
China Pharmacy 2026;37(1):124-129
Antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) are a novel class of anti-tumor agents composed of a targeted monoclonal antibody, a cytotoxic drug, and a linker connecting the two. They combine the high specificity of antibodies with the potent cytotoxicity of chemotherapeutic agents. Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is characterized by high aggressiveness, elevated risks of recurrence and metastasis, and poor prognosis, largely due to the lack of effective therapeutic targets. This review summarizes the research progress of ADCs in the treatment of TNBC. It has been found that ADCs targeting human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (such as trastuzumab deruxtecan), trophoblast cell surface antigen 2 (such as sacituzumab govitecan and datopotamab deruxtecan), zinc transporter LIV-1 (such as ladiratuzumab vedotin), HER-3 (such as patritumab deruxtecan), epidermal growth factor receptor (such as AVID100), and glycoprotein non-metastatic melanoma protein B (such as glembatumumab vedotin) have all demonstrated promising therapeutic effects against TNBC. Despite challenges including acquired resistance and treatment-related toxicities, ADCs are undoubtedly reshaping the therapeutic landscape for TNBC and are expected to occupy a more central position in TNBC treatment in the future.
10.Comparison of the predictive performance of SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease
LU Wenhai ; KONG Xiaojie ; SONG Lixia ; LU Chunru ; YU Bikun ; XIE Yan
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(1):79-84
Objective:
To compare the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, the Prophet model, and the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model in forecasting the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) , so as to provide a basis for optimizing the early warning system of this disease.
Methods:
Weekly incidence data of HFMD in Longgang District, Shenzhen City from 2014 to 2024 were collected. The HFMD incidence data from 2014-2019 and 2023 were used as the training set to construct SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS models, while the data from 2024 were used as the test set to compare and evaluate the predictive performance of the three models. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was employed to calculate the C-value. This approach integrates multiple evaluation metrics, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE), to comprehensively assess model performance.
Results:
A total of 150 111 cases of HFMD were reported in Longgang District from 2014 to 2024, with an average annual incidence of 400.72/105. The weekly incidence fluctuated between 0 and 63.78/105, exhibiting a bimodal seasonal pattern characterized by a primary peak from May to July and a secondary peak from September to October. In the training set, all three models demonstrated a good fit to the bimodal epidemic trend of HFMD, with the BSTS model achieving the best fit. The BSTS model yielded performance metrics as follows: MAE=0.124, MSE=0.050, RMSE=0.223, SMAPE=0.021, and a C-value of 1.000. In the test set, all three models, including SARIMA, Prophet, and BSTS, performed well for short-term predictions (≤16 weeks), with the Prophet model showing relatively superior predictive performance. However, the prediction accuracy of all models declined as the forecast horizon extended. During the primary peak period (May-July), the Prophet model exhibited better predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model performed relatively better during the secondary peak period (September-October).
Conclusions
For the short-term forecasting of weekly HFMD incidence, the Prophet model outperformed both the SARIMA and BSTS models. During the primary peak period, the Prophet model demonstrated superior predictive performance, whereas the BSTS model exhibited better accuracy in forecasting the secondary peak period.


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