OBJECTIVE: To explore the efficacy of a Thalassemia risk assessment software for the screening of thalassemia mutation carriers and distribution of thalassemia genotypes detected by screening. METHODS: A total of 6 040 individuals were evaluated at Leshan Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital between 2022 and 2024 using the commonly used clinical thalassemia risk assessment method and the thalassemia screening software, respectively, and the performance indicators of the two methods were compared and analyzed against the result of thalassemia gene testing. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of our hospital (Ethics No.: LfyLL[2022]005). RESULTS: The high-risk rate by the thalassemia screening software was 11.19%, with a sensitivity of 95.12%, specificity of 93.28%, positive predictive value of 43.20%, negative predictive value of 99.72%, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.942. The thalassemia gene detection rate of the high-risk samples screened was 4.83%. The high-risk screening rate of the conventional method was 2.50%, with a sensitivity of 51.22%, specificity of 93.28%, positive predictive value of 80.79%, negative predictive value of 97.40%, and the AUC was 0.754. The thalassemia gene detection rate of the high-risk samples was 2.02%. CONCLUSION The software can effectively detect thalassemia carriers and significantly reduce the missed detection compared with conventional method, thereby significantly improve the efficacy of screening.
Humans ; Thalassemia/diagnosis* ; Software ; Female ; Genetic Testing/methods* ; Male ; Mutation ; Adult ; Genotype ; ROC Curve ; Risk Assessment

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for the occurrence of the demora-lization syndrome in patients with oral cancer and provide a scientific basis for the prevention of this syndrome in patients with oral cancer and the development of personalized care programs. METHODS: A total of 486 patients with oral cancer in West China Hospital of Stomatology of Sichuan University and Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from 2024 March to July were selected by convenience sampling. We integrated clinical data and evidence from previous studies to identify the key variables affecting the demoralization syndrome in patients with oral cancer. The 486 patients were divided into a training set and a validation set in an 8∶2 ratio. A clinical risk prediction model was established based on the individual data of 365 patients in the development cohort. Through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, a moderate to severe risk prediction model of demoralization syndrome in oral cancer was constructed, and a clinical machine-learning nomogram was constructed. Bootstrap resampling was used for internal validation. The data of 121 patients in the validation cohort were externally validated. RESULTS: The incidence of the demoralization syndrome in patients with oral cancer was 405 cases (83.3%), of which 279 cases (57.4%) were mild, 176 cases (36.2%) were moderate, and 31 cases (6.4%) were severe. The core model, including patient education level, disease understanding, and MDASI-HN score, was used to predict the risk of outcome. Internal validation of the model yielded C statistic of 0.783 6 (95% CI: 0.78-0.87), beta of 0.843 4, and calibration intercept of -0.040 6. Through external validation, the validation set C statistic was 0.80 (95%CI: 0.71-0.87), beta was 0.80, and calibration intercept was -0.08. CONCLUSIONS Our risk prediction mo-del of the demoralization syndrome in patients with oral cancer performed robustly in validation cohorts of different nur-sing environments. The model has good correction and good discrimination and can be used as an evaluation and prediction item at admission.
Humans ; Mouth Neoplasms/complications* ; Male ; Female ; Nomograms ; Middle Aged ; Syndrome ; Aged ; Adult ; Risk Factors ; Risk Assessment ; Machine Learning

The introduction of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC) into clinical use heralds a new age for anticoagulation therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).However,anticoagulation-related bleeding is currently a major challenge in the anticoagulation process.Assessing the risk of anticoagulation-related bleeding is an important part for the management of patients with AF.Clinical risk factor scores have moderate ability to predict the risk of anticoagulation-related bleeding.To improve the anticoagulation safety of NOACs,additional clinical and biological markers and genetic polymorphisms should be considered to enhance the predictive capability for anticoagulation-related bleeding.This review summarizes the challenges in the management of anticoagulation therapy,with emphases on the bleeding risk scores,biomarkers,clinical indicators,and genetic loci currently used to guide the risk assessment of anticoagulation-related bleeding in AF patients.This review is expected to provide research insights and reference frameworks for predicting and evaluating the bleeding risk associated with NOACs.
Humans ; Atrial Fibrillation/drug therapy* ; Anticoagulants/therapeutic use* ; Hemorrhage/chemically induced* ; Risk Assessment ; Administration, Oral ; Risk Factors

Objective To investigate the effect of health failure mode and effect analysis(HFMEA)in optimizing the management process of postoperative diabetes insipidus in children undergoing neurosurgery.Methods Based on HFMEA,a management flowchart for postoperative diabetes insipidus in children undergoing neurosurgery was created.Brainstorming was adopted to identify failure modes in the workflow,analyze risk factors,and develop improvement measures,thereby refining the management flowchart.The amelioration and prognosis of diabetes insipidus in these children before(October 2022 to November 2023)and after(January 2024 to February 2025)implementation of the management flowchart were compared.Results The HFMEA-based management process for postoperative diabetes insipidus in children undergoing neurosurgery alleviated the symptoms of diabetes insipidus regarding the number of diabetes insipidus in the pediatric intensive care unit(P=0.006),the average daily urine output in the pediatric intensive care unit(P=0.001),the proportion of electrolyte abnormalities at discharge/transfer(P=0.037),the duration of mechanical ventilation(P=0.007),and the length of stay in the intensive care unit(P=0.001).Conclusion The HFMEA-based management process for postoperative diabetes insipidus in children undergoing neurosurgery is beneficial to the optimization of the management process,the alleviation of postoperative diabetes insipidus,and the improvement of prognosis in these children.
Humans ; Diabetes Insipidus/etiology* ; Neurosurgical Procedures/adverse effects* ; Child ; Postoperative Complications/therapy* ; Healthcare Failure Mode and Effect Analysis ; Intensive Care Units, Pediatric ; Risk Factors

OBJECTIVE: To explore, identify, and develop novel blood-based indicators using machine learning algorithms for accurate preoperative assessment and effective prediction of postoperative complication risks in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) undergoing total knee arthroplasty (TKA). METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted including RA patients who underwent unilateral TKA between January 2019 and December 2024. Inpatient and 30-day postoperative outpatient follow-up data were collected. Six machine learning algorithms, including decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, and light gradient boosting machine, were used to construct predictive models. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), F1-score, accuracy, precision, and recall. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were employed to interpret and rank the importance of individual variables. RESULTS: According to the inclusion criteria, a total of 1 548 patients were enrolled. Ultimately, 18 preoperative indicators were identified as effective predictive features, and 8 postoperative complications were defined as prediction labels for inclusion in the study. Within 30 days after surgery, 453 patients (29.2%) developed one or more complications. Considering overall accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score, the random forest model [AUC=0.930, 95% CI (0.910, 0.950)] and the extreme gradient boosting model [AUC=0.909, 95% CI (0.880, 0.938)] demonstrated the best predictive performance. SHAP analysis revealed that anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibody, C-reactive protein, rheumatoid factor, interleukin-6, body mass index, age, and smoking status made significant contributions to the overall prediction of postoperative complications. CONCLUSION Machine learning-based models enable accurate prediction of postoperative complication risks among RA patients undergoing TKA. Inflammatory and immune-related blood biomarkers, such as anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibody, C-reactive protein, and rheumatoid factor, interleukin-6, play key predictive roles, highlighting their potential value in perioperative risk stratification and individualized management.
Humans ; Arthroplasty, Replacement, Knee/adverse effects* ; Arthritis, Rheumatoid/blood* ; Machine Learning ; Postoperative Complications/blood* ; Female ; Male ; Retrospective Studies ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Risk Factors ; Preoperative Period ; C-Reactive Protein/analysis* ; Risk Assessment

PURPOSE: To analyze risk factors for severe trauma and establish a nomogram for early risk prediction, to improve the early identification of severe trauma. METHODS: This study was conducted on the patients treated in 81 trauma treatment institutions in Gansu province from 2020 to 2022. Patients were grouped by year, with 5364 patients from 2020 to 2021 as the training set and 1094 newly admitted patients in 2020 as the external validation set. Based on the injury severity score (ISS), patients in the training set were classified into 2 subgroups of the severe trauma group (n = 478, ISS scores ≥25) and the non-severe trauma group (n = 4886, ISS scores <25). Univariate and binary logistic regression analyses were employed to identify independent risk factors for severe trauma. Subsequently, a predictive model was developed using the R software environment. Furthermore, the model was subjected to internal and external validation via the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. RESULTS: In total, 6458 trauma patients were included in this study. Initially, this study identified several independent risk factors for severe trauma, including multiple traumatic injuries (polytrauma), external hemorrhage, elevated shock index, elevated respiratory rate, decreased peripheral oxygen saturation, and decreased Glasgow coma scale score (all p < 0.05). For internal validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.914, with the sensitivity and specificity of 88.4% and 87.6%, respectively; while for external validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.936, with the sensitivity and specificity of 84.6% and 93.7%, respectively. In addition, a good model fitting was observed through the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curve analysis (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION This study establishes a nomogram for early risk prediction of severe trauma, which is suitable for primary healthcare institutions in underdeveloped western China. It facilitates early triage and quantitative assessment of trauma severity by clinicians prior to clinical interventions.
Humans ; Nomograms ; Male ; Female ; Wounds and Injuries/diagnosis* ; Risk Factors ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Injury Severity Score ; Risk Assessment ; ROC Curve ; Aged ; Logistic Models ; China ; Glasgow Coma Scale

INTRODUCTION: The diagnosis of sarcopenia relies on key indicators such as handgrip strength, walking speed and muscle mass. Developing a composite index that integrates these measures could enhance clinical evaluation in older adults. This study aimed to standardise and combine these metrics to establish a z score for the sarcopenia composite index (ZoSCI) tailored for the ageing population. Additionally, we explore the risk factors associated with ZoSCI to provide insights into early prevention and intervention strategies. METHOD: This retrospective study analysed data between January 2017 and December 2021 from an elderly health programme in Taiwan, applying the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia criteria to assess sarcopenia. ZoSCI was developed by standardising handgrip strength, walking speed and muscle mass into z scores and integrating them into a composite index. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to determine optimal cut-off values, and multiple regression analysis identified factors influencing ZoSCI. RESULTS: Among the 5047 participants, the prevalence of sarcopenia was 3.7%, lower than the reported global prevalence of 3.9-15.4%. ROC curve analysis established optimal cut-off points for distinguishing sarcopenia in ZoSCI: -1.85 (sensitivity 0.91, specificity 0.88) for males and -1.97 (sensitivity 0.93, specificity 0.88) for females. Factors associated with lower ZoSCI included advanced age, lower education levels, reduced exercise frequency, lower body mass index and creatinine levels. CONCLUSION This study introduces ZoSCI, a new compo-site quantitative indicator for identifying sarcopenia in older adults. The findings highlight specific risk factors that can inform early intervention. Future studies should validate ZoSCI globally, with international collaborations to ensure broader applicability.
Humans ; Sarcopenia/physiopathology* ; Male ; Aged ; Female ; Retrospective Studies ; Hand Strength ; Taiwan/epidemiology* ; ROC Curve ; Aged, 80 and over ; Risk Factors ; Walking Speed ; Geriatric Assessment/methods* ; Prevalence ; Muscle, Skeletal ; Middle Aged

INTRODUCTION: Elevated troponin, while essential for diagnosing myocardial infarction, can also be present in non-myocardial infarction conditions. The myocardial-ischaemic-injury-index (MI3) algorithm is a machine learning algorithm that considers age, sex and cardiac troponin I (TnI) results to risk-stratify patients for type 1 myocardial infarction. METHOD: Patients aged ≥25 years who presented to the emergency department (ED) of Singapore General Hospital with symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndrome with no diagnostic 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) changes were included. Participants had serial ECGs and high-sensitivity troponin assays performed at 0, 2 and 7 hours. The primary outcome was the adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 myocardial infarction at 30 days. We compared the performance of MI3 in predicting the primary outcome with the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) 0/2-hour algorithm as well as the 99th percentile upper reference limit (URL) for TnI. RESULTS: There were 1351 patients included (66.7% male, mean age 56 years), 902 (66.8%) of whom had only 0-hour troponin results and 449 (33.2%) with serial (both 0 and 2-hour) troponin results available. MI3 ruled out type 1 myocardial infarction with a higher sensitivity (98.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 93.4-99.9%) and similar negative predictive value (NPV) 99.8% (95% CI 98.6-100%) as compared to the ESC strategy. The 99th percentile cut-off strategy had the lowest sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and NPV. CONCLUSION The MI3 algorithm was accurate in risk stratifying ED patients for myocardial infarction. The 99th percentile URL cut-off was the least accurate in ruling in and out myocardial infarction compared to the other strategies.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Emergency Service, Hospital ; Middle Aged ; Electrocardiography ; Machine Learning ; Singapore ; Chest Pain/blood* ; Troponin I/blood* ; Myocardial Infarction/blood* ; Risk Assessment/methods* ; Aged ; Algorithms ; Acute Coronary Syndrome/blood* ; Adult ; Sensitivity and Specificity

INTRODUCTION: The 30-day readmission rate for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common performance metric but may be confounded by factors unrelated to quality of care. Our aim was to assess how sociodemographic factors, multimorbidity and frailty impact 30-day readmission risk after COPD hospitalisation, and whether risk adjustment alters interpretation of temporal trends. METHOD: This is a retrospective analysis of administra-tive data from October 2017 to June 2023 from Changi General Hospital, Singapore. Multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to estimate unadjusted and risk-adjusted 30-day readmission odds. Covariates included age, sex, race, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) and year. Temporal trends in readmission risk were compared across unadjusted and adjusted models. RESULTS: Of the 2774 admissions, 749 (27%) resulted in 30-day readmissions. Higher CCI (CCI≥4 versus [vs] CCI=1: adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.00, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.33-2.99, P=0.003; CCI 2-3 vs CCI=1: aOR 1.50, 95% CI 1.15-1.96, P=0.001) and higher HFRS (≥5 vs <5: aOR 1.29, 95% CI 1.01-1.65, P=0.04) were independently associated with increased readmission risk. While unadjusted analyses showed no significant temporal trends, the risk-adjusted model revealed a 32-35% reduction in readmission odds in 2021-2023 compared to baseline. CONCLUSION Multimorbidity and frailty significantly impact COPD readmissions. Risk adjustment revealed improvements in readmission risk not evident in unadjusted analyses, emphasising the importance of applying risk adjustments to ensure valid performance metrics.
Humans ; Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/therapy* ; Patient Readmission/trends* ; Male ; Female ; Retrospective Studies ; Aged ; Singapore/epidemiology* ; Multimorbidity ; Frailty/epidemiology* ; Middle Aged ; Risk Adjustment ; Aged, 80 and over ; Logistic Models ; Risk Factors

INTRODUCTION: Risk-based screening (RBS) has emerged as a promising alternative to age-based cancer screening. However, evidence regarding real-world implementation outcomes remains fragmented. Thus, a systematic review was conducted to evaluate the implementation metho-dologies and outcomes of RBS programmes across different cancer types. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Scopus were systematically searched from their respective dates of inception up to 8 July 2024. Prospective and rando-mised controlled trials (RCTs), which implement the RBS of cancer in an asymptomatic population, or studies retrospectively evaluating the outcomes of the same were included. Geographic distribution, population characteristics, RBS methodology, diagnostic accuracy and clinical outcomes were narratively synthesised. RESULTS: Among the 33 included studies (i.e. 21 prospective cohort, 8 RCTs, 3 retrospective and 1 non-RCT), sample sizes ranged from 102 to 1,429,890 participants. Most RBS trials were conducted in China (n=7, 21.2%), followed by the Netherlands (n=4, 12.1%) then the US, Australia and Sweden (n=3, 9.8%). Studies predominantly examined colorectal (27.3%), breast (21.2%) and prostate cancer (18.2%). Three main stratification approaches emerged: algorithmic (48.5%), validated risk models (39.4%) and physician assessment (9.1%). Implementation outcomes showed higher uptake in moderate-risk (75.4%) compared to high-risk (71.3%) and low-risk groups (67.9%). Five studies demonstrated cost-effectiveness with increased quality-adjusted life years, while 12 studies showed superior or non-inferior cancer detection rates compared to traditional screening. CONCLUSION The RBS of cancer has the potential to optimise healthcare resource allocation while minimising harm and increasing receptiveness for patients. More work is needed to evaluate long-term outcomes prior to the scaling of RBS programmes.
Humans ; Early Detection of Cancer/methods* ; Neoplasms/diagnosis* ; Risk Assessment ; Mass Screening/methods*