ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological trends and characteristics of brucellosis in humans (hereinafter referred to as brucellosis) in Tangshan City, Hebei Province from 2016 to 2023, and to provide a scientific basis for formulating brucellosis prevention and control strategies in the region. MethodsThe incidence data of human brucellosis in Tangshan City from 2016 to 2023 were collected from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The diagnosis time, infection route, and clinical characteristics of the cases were obtained from the case investigation reports. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the temporal, spatial, demographic distributions, and clinical characteristics of human brucellosis. Brucella species were identified using agglutination tests with bacterial suspension and A/M antigen-positive serum. ResultsA total of 2 193 cases of human brucellosis were confirmed and clinically diagnosed in Tangshan City from 2016 to 2023, with the peak incidence occured from March to August, and which exhibited distinct geographic distribution patterns. The highest incidence rate was found in people aged 60‒<70 years. The occupation of cases were primarily farmers. The incidence rate in males (528/100 000) was higher than that in females (184/100 000). All cases had confirmed exposure to infected animals or contaminated animal products. ConclusionThe epidemic of human brucellosis in Tangshan exhibited an overall steady downward trend from 2016 to 2023, except for a slight increase in 2016 and 2021, with the incidence rate controlled at 289/100 000‒335/100 000. The prevention and control situation of human brucellosis still remains severe, with the highest incidence rate in the eastern region of Tangshan, which are characterized by the breeding, slaughtering, and processing of cattle and sheep. Therefore, it it is necessary to enhance the prevention and control of human brucellosis among the personnel engaged in these industries in the eastern areas.

Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of human brucellosis in Tangshan City, Hebei Province from 2016 to 2024, and to establish a prediction model for forecasting incidence of human brucellosis in Tangshan City from 2025 to 2028, so that to provide evidence for prevention and control strategies.Methods:The incidence data of human brucellosis in Tangshan City from 2016 to 2024 were collected. Brucella strains isolated from blood cultures of patients with acute brucellosis were identified.The onset time and demographic distributions of brucellosis were analyzed using descriptive epidemiological methods. Chi-square test was used for statistical analysis. Python software was used to establish a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA model) and predict the incidence of brucellosis in Tangshan City from 2025 to 2028. Results:From 2016 to 2024, a total of 2 446 cases of human brucellosis in Tangshan City were reported, with the highest incidence in 2016 (378 cases) and the lowest in 2022 (277 cases).Seasonal variation was observed, with 54.87%(1 342/2 446) occurring in spring and summer (March to July). The incidence rate of male was 5.28/100 000, which was significantly higher than that of female (1.94/100 000) ( χ2=554.96, P<0.001). The cases spanned all age groups, with the highest incidence among those aged 50 to 59 (30.25%(740/2 446)). Farmers engaged in cattle/sheep breeding accounting for 85.73% (2 097/2 446) of cases. A total of 236 blood samples were collected from patients with acute brucellosis, and 12 Brucella strains were isolated and identified as sheep type Ⅲ Brucella. The optimal model constructed was SARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 0, 1) 12, which was used to predict the incidence of human brucellosis in Tangshan City from 2025 to 2028. The results showed that the overall incidence was relatively stable, retaining the characteristic single annual peak. Conclusions:Human brucellosis in Tangshan City peaks in spring/summer and predominantly affects cattle/sheep farmers. The SARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 0, 1) 12 model effectively fits the epidemiological data of human brucellosis in Tangshan City well and enables reliable future trend predictions, supporting scientific and effective prevention and control work.

Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of human brucellosis in Tangshan City, Hebei Province from 2016 to 2024, and to establish a prediction model for forecasting incidence of human brucellosis in Tangshan City from 2025 to 2028, so that to provide evidence for prevention and control strategies.Methods:The incidence data of human brucellosis in Tangshan City from 2016 to 2024 were collected. Brucella strains isolated from blood cultures of patients with acute brucellosis were identified.The onset time and demographic distributions of brucellosis were analyzed using descriptive epidemiological methods. Chi-square test was used for statistical analysis. Python software was used to establish a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA model) and predict the incidence of brucellosis in Tangshan City from 2025 to 2028. Results:From 2016 to 2024, a total of 2 446 cases of human brucellosis in Tangshan City were reported, with the highest incidence in 2016 (378 cases) and the lowest in 2022 (277 cases).Seasonal variation was observed, with 54.87%(1 342/2 446) occurring in spring and summer (March to July). The incidence rate of male was 5.28/100 000, which was significantly higher than that of female (1.94/100 000) ( χ2=554.96, P<0.001). The cases spanned all age groups, with the highest incidence among those aged 50 to 59 (30.25%(740/2 446)). Farmers engaged in cattle/sheep breeding accounting for 85.73% (2 097/2 446) of cases. A total of 236 blood samples were collected from patients with acute brucellosis, and 12 Brucella strains were isolated and identified as sheep type Ⅲ Brucella. The optimal model constructed was SARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 0, 1) 12, which was used to predict the incidence of human brucellosis in Tangshan City from 2025 to 2028. The results showed that the overall incidence was relatively stable, retaining the characteristic single annual peak. Conclusions:Human brucellosis in Tangshan City peaks in spring/summer and predominantly affects cattle/sheep farmers. The SARIMA (1, 0, 0) (1, 0, 1) 12 model effectively fits the epidemiological data of human brucellosis in Tangshan City well and enables reliable future trend predictions, supporting scientific and effective prevention and control work.