OBJECTIVE: To explore the efficacy of a Thalassemia risk assessment software for the screening of thalassemia mutation carriers and distribution of thalassemia genotypes detected by screening. METHODS: A total of 6 040 individuals were evaluated at Leshan Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital between 2022 and 2024 using the commonly used clinical thalassemia risk assessment method and the thalassemia screening software, respectively, and the performance indicators of the two methods were compared and analyzed against the result of thalassemia gene testing. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of our hospital (Ethics No.: LfyLL[2022]005). RESULTS: The high-risk rate by the thalassemia screening software was 11.19%, with a sensitivity of 95.12%, specificity of 93.28%, positive predictive value of 43.20%, negative predictive value of 99.72%, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.942. The thalassemia gene detection rate of the high-risk samples screened was 4.83%. The high-risk screening rate of the conventional method was 2.50%, with a sensitivity of 51.22%, specificity of 93.28%, positive predictive value of 80.79%, negative predictive value of 97.40%, and the AUC was 0.754. The thalassemia gene detection rate of the high-risk samples was 2.02%. CONCLUSION The software can effectively detect thalassemia carriers and significantly reduce the missed detection compared with conventional method, thereby significantly improve the efficacy of screening.
Humans ; Thalassemia/diagnosis* ; Software ; Female ; Genetic Testing/methods* ; Male ; Mutation ; Adult ; Genotype ; ROC Curve ; Risk Assessment

INTRODUCTION: Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) is a serious but underdiagnosed condition. Demand for the gold standard diagnostic polysomnogram (PSG) far exceeds its availability. More efficient diagnostic methods are needed, even in tertiary settings. Machine learning (ML) models have strengths in disease prediction and early diagnosis. We explored the use of ML with oximetry, demographic and anthropometric data to diagnose OSA. METHODS: A total of 2,996 patients were included for modelling and divided into test and training sets. Seven commonly used supervised learning algorithms were trained with the data. Sensitivity (recall), specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) (precision), negative predictive value, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and F1 measure were reported for each model. RESULTS: In the best performing four-class model (neural network model predicting no, mild, moderate or severe OSA), a prediction of moderate and/or severe disease had a combined PPV of 94%; one out of 335 patients had no OSA and 19 had mild OSA. In the best performing two-class model (logistic regression model predicting no-mild vs. moderate-severe OSA), the PPV for moderate-severe OSA was 92%; two out of 350 patients had no OSA and 26 had mild OSA. CONCLUSION Our study showed that the prediction of moderate-severe OSA in a tertiary setting with an ML approach is a viable option to facilitate early identification of OSA. Prospective studies with home-based oximeters and analysis of other oximetry variables are the next steps towards formal implementation.
Humans ; Oximetry/methods* ; Sleep Apnea, Obstructive/diagnosis* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Machine Learning ; Polysomnography ; Adult ; Anthropometry ; ROC Curve ; Aged ; Algorithms ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; Neural Networks, Computer ; Demography

INTRODUCTION: In this study, we aimed to compare the performance of a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based deep learning model that was trained on a dataset of normal and abnormal paediatric elbow radiographs with that of paediatric emergency department (ED) physicians on a binomial classification task. METHODS: A total of 1,314 paediatric elbow lateral radiographs (patient mean age 8.2 years) were retrospectively retrieved and classified based on annotation as normal or abnormal (with pathology). They were then randomly partitioned to a development set (993 images); first and second tuning (validation) sets (109 and 100 images, respectively); and a test set (112 images). An artificial intelligence (AI) model was trained on the development set using the EfficientNet B1 network architecture. Its performance on the test set was compared to that of five physicians (inter-rater agreement: fair). Performance of the AI model and the physician group was tested using McNemar test. RESULTS: The accuracy of the AI model on the test set was 80.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 71.8%-87.3%), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.872 (95% CI 0.831-0.947). The performance of the AI model vs. the physician group on the test set was: sensitivity 79.0% (95% CI: 68.4%-89.5%) vs. 64.9% (95% CI: 52.5%-77.3%; P = 0.088); and specificity 81.8% (95% CI: 71.6%-92.0%) vs. 87.3% (95% CI: 78.5%-96.1%; P = 0.439). CONCLUSION The AI model showed good AUROC values and higher sensitivity, with the P-value at nominal significance when compared to the clinician group.
Humans ; Deep Learning ; Child ; Retrospective Studies ; Male ; Female ; Radiography/methods* ; ROC Curve ; Elbow/diagnostic imaging* ; Neural Networks, Computer ; Child, Preschool ; Elbow Joint/diagnostic imaging* ; Emergency Service, Hospital ; Adolescent ; Infant ; Artificial Intelligence

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictive value of early lactate/albumin ratio (LAR) combined with quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) for the 28-day prognosis of patients with sepsis caused by emergency community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). METHODS: The clinical data of patients with sepsis caused by CAP admitted to the department of emergency of Beijing Haidian Hospital from June 2021 to August 2022 were retrospectively analyzed, including gender, age, comorbidities, lactic acid (Lac), serum albumin (Alb), LAR, procalcitonin (PCT) within 1 hour, and 28-day prognosis. Patients were divided into two groups based on 28-day prognosis, and risk factors affecting patients' prognosis were analyzed using univariate and multivariate Cox regression methods. Patients were divided into two groups according to the best cut-off value of LAR, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to analyze the 28-day cumulative survival of patients in each group. Time-dependent receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) were plotted to analyze the predictive value of sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), and qSOFA+LAR score on the prognosis of patients with sepsis caused by CAP at 28 days. The area under the curve (AUC) was calculated and compared. RESULTS: A total of 116 patients with sepsis caused by CAP were included, of whom 80 survived at 28 days and 36 died, 28-day mortality of 31.0%. There were no statistically significant differences in age, gender, comorbidities, pH, platelet count, and fibrinogen between the survival and death groups, and there were significantly differences in blood urea nitrogen (BUN), white blood cell count (WBC), hemoglobin, Lac, Alb, PCT, D-dimer, LAR, as well as qSOFA score, SOFA score, and APACHE II score. Univariate Cox regression analyses showed that BUN, WBC, pH, Lac, Alb, PCT, LAR, qSOFA score, SOFA score, and APACHE II score were associated with mortality outcome. Multifactorial Cox regression analysis of the above variables showed that BUN, WBC, PCT, and APACHE II score were independent risk factors for 28-day death in the emergency department in patients with sepsis caused by CAP [hazard ratio (HR) were 1.081, 0.892, 1.034, and 1.135, respectively, all P < 0.05]. The best cut-off value of early LAR for predicting the 28-day prognosis of sepsis patients was 0.088, the Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed that the 28-day cumulative survival rate of sepsis patients in the LAR ≤ 0.088 group was significantly higher than that in the LAR > 0.088 group [82.9% (63/76) vs. 42.5% (17/40), Log-Rank test: χ² = 22.51, P < 0.001]. The qSOFA+LAR score was calculated based on the LAR cut-off value and qSOFA score, and ROC curve analysis showed that the AUCs of SOFA score, APACHE II score, and qSOFA+LAR score for predicting 28-day death of patients with sepsis caued by CAP were 0.741, 0.774, and 0.709, respectively, with the AUC of qSOFA+LAR score slightly lower than those of SOFA score and APACHE II score, but there were no significantly differences. When the best cut-off value of qSOFA+LAR score was 1, the sensitivity was 63.9% and the specificity was 80.0%. CONCLUSION The qSOFA+LAR score has predictive value for the 28-day prognosis of patients with sepsis caused by CAP in the emergency department, its predictive value is comparable to the SOFA score and the APACHE II score, and it is more convenient for early use in the emergency department.
Emergency Service, Hospital/statistics & numerical data* ; Sepsis/etiology* ; Prognosis ; Community-Acquired Pneumonia/mortality* ; Organ Dysfunction Scores ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Lactic Acid/blood* ; Serum Albumin, Human/analysis* ; Biomarkers/blood* ; Retrospective Studies ; Hospital Mortality ; Kaplan-Meier Estimate ; APACHE ; Procalcitonin/blood* ; ROC Curve ; Area Under Curve ; Humans

OBJECTIVE: To explore the prognostic value of C-reactive protein (CRP)/albumin (Alb) ratio combined with platelet count (PLT) and Glasgow coma score (GCS) in patients with heat stroke (HS). METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of HS patients admitted to the department of intensive care unit (ICU) of Nanchong Central Hospital from May 1, 2020 to October 31, 2023. This included general information, admission GCS, laboratory indicators and 28-day prognosis. The differences in the above indicators were compared between two groups of patients with different prognoses. Statistically significant indicators from univariate analysis were included in multivariate Logistic regression analysis to screen for factors influencing 28-day mortality in HS patients. The predictive value of various influencing factors on the 28 days prognosis of HS patients were analyzed by receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve). RESULTS: A total of 73 HS patients were included, of whom 41 survived for 28-day and 32 died. There were no statistically significant differences in gender and age between the two groups of HS patients with different prognoses. The white blood cell count (WBC), neutrophil count (NEU), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), CRP, and CRP/Alb ratio in the death group were significantly higher than those of the survival group, and the admission GCS score, platelet count (PLT), total bilirubin (TBil) and Alb were significantly lower than the survival group [WBC (×10⁹/L): 14.80 (11.44, 17.15) vs. 11.96 (9.47, 14.82), NEU (×10⁹/L): 13.05 (8.56, 15.67) vs. 9.50 (6.68, 12.09), AST (U/L): 108.00 (52.70, 291.50) vs. 64.50 (38.25, 110.50), ALT (U/L): 62.00 (19.50, 159.00) vs. 34.50 (20.75, 70.75), CRP (mg/L): 22.49 (3.42, 58.93) vs. 3.68 (1.01, 11.46), CRP/Alb ratio: 0.53 (0.08, 1.77) vs. 0.08 (0.02, 0.44), GCS score: 7.0 (5.0, 8.0) vs. 8.5 (7.0, 11.0), PLT (×10⁹/L): 107.00 (73.50, 126.00) vs. 131.50 (107.50, 176.25), TBil (mmol/L): 15.60 (10.00, 25.30) vs. 21.40 (14.80, 30.05), Alb (g/L): 32.65 (32.53, 49.30) vs. 38.70 (36.20, 40.40), all P < 0.05]. Binary Logistic regression analysis showed that the GCS score [odds ratio (OR) = 0.686, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 0.491-0.959, P = 0.028], PLT (OR = 0.973, 95%CI was 0.954-0.992, P = 0.005), NEU (OR = 1.312, 95%CI was 1.072-1.606, P = 0.009) and CRP/Alb ratio (OR = 7.652, 95%CI was 1.632-35.881, P = 0.010) were independent influencing factors for 28-day mortality in HS patients. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of GCS score, PLT, and CRP/Alb ratio for single prediction of 28-day prognosis in HS patients was 0.705, 0.752, and 0.729, and the combination of all three predicted the highest AUC of 28-day prognosis in HS patients (0.917), with a sensitivity and specificity of 86.2% and 81.2%, respectively. CONCLUSION CRP/Alb ratio, PLT, and GCS score are independent influencing factors affecting the prognosis of HS patients, and all of them have a certain predictive value for the prognosis of HS patients, in which the combination of the three has a higher predictive value for the prognosis of HS patients.
Humans ; C-Reactive Protein/analysis* ; Prognosis ; Glasgow Coma Scale ; Retrospective Studies ; Heat Stroke/diagnosis* ; Platelet Count ; Male ; Female ; Serum Albumin/analysis* ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Adult ; ROC Curve

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the clinical characteristics and related risk factors of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) in intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted. Patients with diarrhea admitted to the ICU of the General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University from May 1 to August 30, 2023 were selected. Patients were divided into CDI group and non-CDI group based on the presence or absence of CDI. Clinical data from two groups of patients meeting the criteria were collected and compared, including gender, age, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), length of hospital stay, serum lactic acid, parenteral nutrition time, white blood cell count (WBC), procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), coagulation indicators, albumin, antibiotic exposure, etc. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was performed to analyze the risk factors for CDI in ICU diarrhea patients. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn to analyze the predictive value of each index for CDI in diarrhea patients. RESULTS: A total of 24 patients with diarrhea were enrolled, including 9 patients in the CDI group and 15 patients in the non-CDI group. The time of parenteral nutrition in the CDI group was significantly longer than that in the non-CDI group [days: 18.0 (13.5, 19.5) vs. 10.0 (4.0, 18.0)], the serum lactic acid level [mmol/L: 4.40 (3.00, 15.25) vs. 2.50 (1.90, 3.20)] and the ratio of serum lactic acid > 3.9 mmol/L [66.67% (6/9) vs. 6.67% (1/15)] were significantly higher than those in the non-CDI group, with statistical significance (all P < 0.05). Multivariate binary Logistic regression analysis showed that the serum lactic acid level of the patients was an independent risk factor for CDI [odds ratio (OR) = 3.193, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.011-10.080, P = 0.048]. ROC curve showed that serum lactic acid level had a high predictive value for CDI in ICU patients with diarrhea, and the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.815, respectively. When the cut-off value of serum lactic acid was 3.9 mmol/L, the sensitivity was 66.7% and the specificity was 93.3%. CONCLUSION Patients with diarrhea who have higher serum lactate levels (> 3.9 mmol/L) on admission are at increased risk of developing CDI.
Humans ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; Intensive Care Units ; Clostridium Infections ; Clostridioides difficile ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Diarrhea/microbiology* ; Logistic Models ; ROC Curve ; Adult

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the predictive value of inflammatory indicator and serum cystatin C (Cys C) for the prognosis of patients with sepsis-associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI). METHODS: A prospective observational study was conducted. Patients with SA-AKI admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of the General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University from January 2022 to December 2023 were selected as the study subjects. General patient data, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), inflammatory indicator, and serum Cys C levels were collected. The 28-day survival status of the patients was observed. A multivariate Logistic regression model was used to analyze the risk factors affecting the poor prognosis of SA-AKI patients. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was plotted to evaluate the predictive efficacy of each risk factor for the prognosis of SA-AKI patients. RESULTS: A total of 111 SA-AKI patients were included, with 65 patients (58.6%) in the survival group and 46 patients (41.4%) in the death group. The SOFA score, APACHE II score, interleukin-6 (IL-6), procalcitonin (PCT), hypersensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and serum Cys C levels in the death group were significantly higher than those in the survival group [SOFA score: 15.00 (14.00, 17.25) vs. 14.00 (11.00, 16.00), APACHE II score: 26.00 (23.75, 28.00) vs. 23.00 (18.50, 28.00), IL-6 (ng/L): 3 731.00±1 573.61 vs. 2 087.93±1 702.88, PCT (μg/L): 78.19±30.35 vs. 43.56±35.37, hs-CRP (mg/L): 266.50 (183.75, 326.75) vs. 210.00 (188.00, 273.00), serum Cys C (mg/L): 2.01±0.61 vs. 1.62±0.50, all P < 0.05]. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that SOFA score [odds ratio (OR) = 1.273, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.012-1.600, P = 0.039], IL-6 (OR = 1.000, 95%CI was 1.000-1.001, P = 0.043), PCT (OR = 1.018, 95%CI was 1.002-1.035, P = 0.030), and Cys C (OR = 4.139, 95%CI was 1.727-9.919, P = 0.001) were independent risk factors affecting the 28-day prognosis of SA-AKI patients. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of SOFA score, IL-6, PCT, and Cys C in predicting the 28-day prognosis of SA-AKI patients were 0.682 (95%CI was 0.582-0.782, P = 0.001), 0.753 (95%CI was 0.662-0.843, P < 0.001), 0.765 (95%CI was 0.677-0.854, P < 0.001), and 0.690 (95%CI was 0.583-0.798, P = 0.001), respectively. The combined predictive value of these four indicators for the prognosis of SA-AKI patients were superior to that of any single indicator, with an AUC of 0.847 (95%CI was 0.778-0.916, P < 0.001), a sensitivity of 95.7%, and a specificity of 56.9%. CONCLUSION The combination of SOFA score, IL-6, PCT, and Cys C provides a reliable predictive value for the prognosis of SA-AKI patients.
Humans ; Acute Kidney Injury/mortality* ; APACHE ; C-Reactive Protein ; Cystatin C/blood* ; Interleukin-6/blood* ; Logistic Models ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Procalcitonin/blood* ; Prognosis ; Prospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; ROC Curve ; Sepsis/mortality*

OBJECTIVE: To elucidate the predictive value of norepinephrine equivalence (NEE) score on the 28-day death risk in patients with sepsis and provide evidence for its application in the diagnosis and treatment of sepsis and septic shock. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted based on the data of patients with sepsis from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV 2.2 (MIMIC-IV 2.2). The patients who received vasoactive agents within 6 hours after the diagnosis of sepsis or septic shock were enrolled, and they were divided into survival and non-survival groups based on their 28-day outcomes. The baseline characteristics, vital signs, and treatment data were collected. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to identify factors influencing the 28-day death risk. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn to analyze the predictive value of various parameters on the 28-day death risk of septic patients. Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to evaluate cumulative survival rate in patients classified by different quantitative parameters based on the cut-off values obtained from ROC curve analysis. RESULTS: A total of 7 744 patients who met the Sepsis-3 diagnostic criteria and received vasopressor treatment within 6 hours post-diagnosis were enrolled, of which 5 997 cases survived and 1 747 died, with the 28-day mortality of 22.6%. Significant differences were observed between the two groups regarding age, gender, height, body weight, race, type of intensive care unit (ICU), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) score, underlying comorbidities, and vital signs. Compared with the survival group, the non-survival group had poorer blood routine, liver and kidney function, coagulation function, blood gas analysis and other indicators. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that age > 65 years old [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.892, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 0.801-0.994, P = 0.039] and male (HR = 0.735, 95%CI was 0.669-0.808, P < 0.001) were protective factors for 28-day death in patients with sepsis, and NEE score (HR = 1.040, 95%CI was 1.021-1.060, P < 0.001), shock index (HR = 1.840, 95%CI was 1.675-2.022, P < 0.001), APACHE II score (HR = 1.076, 95%CI was 1.069-1.083, P < 0.001), SOFA score (HR = 1.035, 95%CI was 1.015-1.056, P < 0.001), and CCI score (HR = 1.135, 95%CI was 1.115-1.155, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for 28-day death in septic patients. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of NEE score for predicting the 28-day death risk of septic patients was 0.743 (95%CI was 0.730-0.756), which was comparable to the predictive value of APACHE II score (AUC = 0.742, 95%CI was 0.729-0.755) and ratio of mean arterial pressure (MAP)/NEE score (MAP/NEE; AUC = 0.738, 95%CI was 0.725-0.751, both P > 0.05), and better than SOFA score (AUC = 0.609, 95%CI was 0.594-0.624), CCI score (AUC = 0.658, 95%CI was 0.644-0.673), shock index (AUC = 0.613, 95%CI was 0.597-0.629) and ratio of diastolic blood pressure (DBP)/NEE score (DBP/NEE; AUC = 0.735, 95%CI was 0.721-0.748, all P < 0.05). According to the cut-off values of APACHE II and NEE scores obtained from ROC curve analysis, the patients were stratified for Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis, and the results showed that the 28-day cumulative survival rate in the septic patients with an APACHE II score ≤ 22.5 was significantly higher than that in those with an APACHE II > 22.5 (Log-Rank test: χ² = 848.600, P < 0.001), and the 28-day cumulative survival rate in the septic patients with an NEE score ≤0.120 was significantly higher than that in those with an NEE score > 0.120 (Log-Rank test: χ² = 832.449, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS NEE score is an independent risk factor for 28-day death in septic patients who received vasoactive treatment within 6 hours of diagnosis and possesses significant predictive value. It can be used for severity stratification in sepsis management.
Humans ; Retrospective Studies ; Sepsis/diagnosis* ; Male ; Female ; Norepinephrine/therapeutic use* ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Prognosis ; Predictive Value of Tests ; Shock, Septic/mortality* ; Adult ; ROC Curve ; Risk Factors ; Survival Rate ; Aged, 80 and over

OBJECTIVE: To identify early potential risk factors for hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) in patients with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI), construct a risk prediction model, and evaluate its predictive efficacy. METHODS: A case-control study was conducted using clinical data from mTBI patients admitted to the neurosurgery department of Changzhou Second People's Hospital from September 2021 to September 2023. The patients were divided into two groups based on whether they developed HAP. Clinical data within 48 hours of admission were statistically analyzed to identify factors influencing HAP occurrence through univariate analysis. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was employed for feature selection to identify the most influential variables. The dataset was divided into training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. A multivariate Logistic regression analysis was then performed using the training set to construct the prediction model, exploring the risk factors for HAP in mTBI patients and conducting internal validation in the validation set. Receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration curve were utilized to assess the sensitivity, specificity, decision value, and predictive accuracy of the prediction model. RESULTS: A total of 677 mTBI patients were included, with 257 in the HAP group and 420 in the non-HAP group. The significant differences were found between the two groups in terms of age, maximum body temperature (MaxT), maximum heart rate (MaxHR), maximum systolic blood pressure (MaxSBP), minimum systolic blood pressure (MinSBP), maximum respiratory rate (MaxRR), cause of injury, and laboratory indicators [C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), neutrophil count (NEUT), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), fibrinogen (FBG), fibrinogen equivalent units (FEU), prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), total cholesterol (TC), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), prealbumin (PAB), albumin (Alb), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum creatinine (SCr), hematocrit (HCT), hemoglobin (Hb), platelet count (PLT), glucose (Glu), K⁺, Na⁺], suggesting they could be potential risk factors for HAP in mTBI patients. After LASSO regression analysis, the key risk factors were enrolled in the multivariate Logistic regression analysis. The results revealed that the cause of injury being a traffic accident [odds ratio (OR) = 2.199, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.124-4.398, P = 0.023], NEUT (OR = 1.330, 95%CI was 1.214-1.469, P < 0.001), ESR (OR = 1.053, 95%CI was 1.019-1.090, P = 0.003), FBG (OR = 0.272, 95%CI was 0.158-0.445, P < 0.001), PT (OR = 0.253, 95%CI was 0.144-0.422, P < 0.001), APTT (OR = 0.689, 95%CI was 0.578-0.811, P < 0.001), Alb (OR = 0.734, 95%CI was 0.654-0.815, P < 0.001), BUN (OR = 0.720, 95%CI was 0.547-0.934, P = 0.016), and Na⁺ (OR = 0.756, 95%CI was 0.670-0.843, P < 0.001) could serve as main risk factors for constructing the prediction model. Calibration curves demonstrated good calibration of the prediction model in both training and validation sets with no evident over fitting. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the prediction model in the training set was 0.943 (95%CI was 0.921-0.965, P < 0.001), with a sensitivity of 83.6% and a specificity of 91.5%. In the validation set, the AUC was 0.917 (95%CI was 0.878-0.957, P < 0.001), with a sensitivity of 90.1% and a specificity of 85.0%. DCA indicated that the prediction model had a high net benefit, suggesting practical clinical applicability. CONCLUSIONS The cause of injury being a traffic accident, NEUT, ESR, FBG, PT, APTT, Alb, BUN, and Na⁺ are identified as major risk factors influencing the occurrence of HAP in mTBI patients. The prediction model constructed using these parameters effectively assesses the likelihood of HAP in mTBI patients.
Humans ; Risk Factors ; Case-Control Studies ; Logistic Models ; Healthcare-Associated Pneumonia/epidemiology* ; Brain Injuries, Traumatic/complications* ; Male ; Female ; ROC Curve ; Pneumonia/etiology* ; Middle Aged ; Adult

OBJECTIVE: To develop and compare risk prediction models for in-hospital post-cardiac arrest brain injury (PCABI) in critically ill patients using nomograms and random forest algorithms, aiming to identify the optimal model for early identification of high-risk PCABI patients and providing evidence for precise treatment. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was used to collect the first-time in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) from 2008 to 2019 in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) as the study population, and the patients' age, gender, body mass, health insurance utilization, first vital signs and laboratory tests within 24 hours of ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, and critical care scores were extracted. Independent influencing factors of PCABI were identified through univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses. The included patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and an internal validation cohort in a 7:3 ratio, and the PCABI risk prediction model was constructed by the nomogram and random forest algorithm, respectively, and the model was evaluated by receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), the calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA), and after the better model was selected, 179 patients admitted to Tianjin Medical University General Hospital as the external validation cohort for external evaluation were collected by using the same inclusion and exclusion criteria. RESULTS: A total of 1 419 patients with without traumatic brain injury who had their first-time IHCA were enrolled, including 995 in the training cohort (including 176 PCABI and 819 non-PCABI) and 424 in the internal validation cohort (including 74 PCABI and 350 non-PCABI). Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that age, potassium, urea nitrogen, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation III (APACHE III), and mechanical ventilation were independent influences on the occurrence of PCABI in patients with IHCA (all P < 0.05). Combining the above variables, we constructed a nomogram model and a random forest model for comparison, and the results show that the nomogram model has better predictive efficacy than the random forest model [nomogram model: area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the training cohort = 0.776, with a 95% credible interval (95%CI) of 0.741-0.811; internal validation cohort AUC = 0.776, with a 95%CI of 0.718-0.833; random forest model: AUC = 0.720, with a 95%CI of 0.653-0.787], and they performed similarly in terms of calibration curves, but the nomogram performed better in terms of decision curve analysis (DCA); at the same time, the nomogram model was robust in terms of external validation cohort (external validation cohort AUC = 0.784, 95%CI was 0.692-0.876). CONCLUSIONS A nomogram risk prediction model for the occurrence of PCABI in critically ill patients was successfully constructed, which performs better than the random forest model, helps clinicians to identify the risk of PCABI in critically ill patients at an early stage and provides a theoretical basis for early intervention.
Humans ; Critical Illness ; Retrospective Studies ; Heart Arrest/complications* ; Nomograms ; Brain Injuries/etiology* ; Intensive Care Units ; Algorithms ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; ROC Curve ; Risk Factors ; Risk Assessment ; Logistic Models ; Aged