1.Relationship between dietary inflammatory index and elevated blood pressure among primary school students in Ma anshan City
SUN Qian, LI Cui, ZHAI Guangfu, LU Fen, QU Guangbo
Chinese Journal of School Health 2026;47(3):319-322
Objective:
To explore the association between dietary inflammatory index (DII) and elevated blood pressure among primary school students, and to analyze the mediating role of body mass index (BMI) in this association, so as to provide a scientific basis for the early prevention of childhood hypertension and dietary guidance.
Methods:
Research conducted based on the Ma anshan Child Growth Cohort in Anhui Province. From April to June 2024, 4 057 primary school students were selected as study subjects using a multi stage cluster sampling method. Dietary information was collected via Semi quantitative Food Frequency Questionnaire to calculate the DII score. BMI was obtained by measuring students height and weight. Elevated blood pressure was defined based on the Blood Pressure Reference Standards for Children Aged 3-17 Years. Logistic regression was used to analyze the association between DII scores and the risk of elevated blood pressure, and the Bootstrap method was employed to test for mediating effects.
Results:
The detection rate of elevated blood pressure among primary school students was 10.1% (408 cases). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that, after adjusting for covariates such as gender and age, for each standard deviation increase in the DII score ( s =1.94), the risk of elevated blood pressure increased by 15% ( OR =1.15, 95% CI =1.04- 1.28 , P <0.05). Compared with the lowest quartile group of DII scores ( Q 1), students in the highest quartile group ( Q 4) had a 1.31-fold higher risk of elevated blood pressure ( OR =1.31, 95% CI =1.00-1.76, P <0.05). Restricted cubic spline results indicated a linear dose response relationship between DII scores and the risk of elevated blood pressure( P nonlinear =0.13). The mediation analysis revealed that BMI played a partial mediating role in the association between DII scores and elevated blood pressure. The mediation effect value was 0.06 (95% CI =0.04-0.08), accounting for 44.64% of the total effect.
Conclusions
DII scores are associated with elevated blood pressure among primary school students in Ma anshan City, and BMI plays a partial mediating role in this association. Promoting an anti inflammatory dietary pattern and weight control in early childhood should be emphasized to reduce the incidence of hypertension among primary school students.
2.Hypoxia Exercise Mediates The miR-27/PPARγ Pathway to Improve Lipid Metabolism in Obese Rats at Target Genes and Protein Levels
Wei KONG ; Jie SHAO ; Teng ZHAI ; Qian CHENG ; Fang-Zheng HAN ; Yi QU ; Lei ZHU
Progress in Biochemistry and Biophysics 2025;52(6):1386-1400
ObjectiveTo explore the sequential effects of hypoxic exercising on miR-27/PPARγ and lipid metabolism target gene and protein expression levels in the obesity rats’ liver. Methods13-week-old male diet-induced obesity rats were randomly divided into three groups (n=10): normal oxygen concentration quiet group (N), hypoxia quiet group (H), hypoxic exercise group (HE). Exercise training on the horizontal animal treadmill for 1 h/d, 5 d/week for a total of 4 week, and the intensity of horizontal treadmill training was 20 m/min (hypoxic concentration was 13.6%). Comparison of the weights of perirenal fat and epididymal fat in rats across different groups and calculation of Lee’s index based on body weight and body length of rats in each group were done. And the serum concentrations of total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels were detected. RT-PCR and Western Blot were used to detect the levels of miR-27, PPARγ, CYP7A1 and CD36. ResultsHypoxic exercise decreased the expression levels of miR-27 in the obese rats’ liver, however, the expression level of PPARγ was gradually increased. The expression levels of miR-27 in HE group were significantly lower than N group (P<0.05). The expression levels of PPARγ mRNA in N group were significantly lower than H group (P<0.05), especially lower than HE group (P<0.01). The protein expression of PPARγ protein in N group was significantly lower than that other groups (P<0.01). The expression of lipid metabolism-related genes and proteins increased in the obese rats’ liver. The expression of CYP7A1 mRNA in N group was significantly lower than H group (P<0.05), especially lower than HE group (P<0.01). The expression of CYP7A1 protein in the obese rats’ liver in N group was extremely lower than H group and HE group (P<0.01). The protein expression of CD36 in N group was significantly lower than that in HE group (P<0.05). Hypoxia exercise improved the related physiological and biochemical indexes of lipid metabolism disorder. The perirenal fat weight of obese rats in HE group was extremely lower than N group and H group (P<0.01), and the perirenal fat weight in N group was significantly higher than H group (P<0.05). The epididymal fat weight in N group was significantly higher than H group (P<0.05), and extremely higher than HE group (P<0.01). The Lee’s index in HE group was extremely lower than N group and H group (P<0.01). The serum concentration of TC in obese rats in HE group was extremely lower than N group and H group (P<0.01). The serum concentration of TG in HE group was extremely lower than N group and H group (P<0.01). The serum concentration of LDL-C in N group was extremely higher than HE group (P<0.01). The serum concentration of HDL-C in N group was extremely lower than H group (P<0.01). ConclusionHypoxia and hypoxia exercise may negatively regulate the levels of PPARγ by inhibiting miR-27 in the obese rats’ liver, thereby affecting the expression of downstream target genes CYP7A1 and CD36, and promoting cholesterol, fatty acid oxidation and HDL-C transport in the liver, and ultimately the lipid levels in obese rats were improved. The effect of hypoxia exercise on improving blood lipid is better than simple hypoxia intervention.
3.Distribution and antimicrobial resistance profiles of bacterial isolates in Xi'an No.3 Hospital from 2019 to 2023
Xiaopu GUO ; Fang SHU ; Yanli LIU ; Qian XU ; Yajun ZHAI ; Bing QU ; Haifeng WANG
Chinese Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy 2025;25(3):312-319
Objective To investigate the distribution and antimicrobial resistance profiles of clinical isolates in Xi'an No.3 Hospital from 2019 to 2023.Methods Clinical isolates were collected from January 1,2019 to December 31,2023.Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was carried out according to a unified protocol of China Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network using Kirby-Bauer method or automated systems.The data were interpreted according to the breakpoints released by the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute(CLSI)in 2023.Results A total of 6 621 clinical isolates were collected from 2019 to 2023,including 1 569(23.7%)strains of Gram-positive bacteria and 5 052(76.3%)strains of Gram-negative bacteria.The prevalence of methicillin-resistant S.aureus,S.epidermidis and other Staphylococcus species(except SS.pseudintermedius and S.schleiferi)was 39.0%,62.3%,and 74.4%,respectively.Methicillin-resistant strains showed much higher resistance rates to most of other antimicrobial agents than methicillin-sensitive strains.No Staphylococcus strains were found resistant to vancomycin or linezolid.E.faecium strains demonstrated much higher resistance rates to most antimicrobial agents tested than E.faecalis.The prevalence of linezolid-resistant E.faecalis and vancomycin-resistant E.faecium was 0.9%and 0.4%,respectively.The prevalence of penicillin-nonsusceptible strains(PISP+PRSP)was 5.8%in nonmeningitis S.pneumoniae isolates.The prevalence of ESBL-producing E.coli,K.pneumoniae,and P.mirabilis in Enterobacterales was 48.5%,37.8%,and 47.2%,respectively.Among Enterobacterales strains,K.pneumoniae had the highest resistance rate to imipenem(18.2%)and meropenem(17.9%).Other Enterobacterales were highly sensitive to carbapenems.The resistance rates of P.aeruginosa to imipenem and meropenem were 22.5%and 19.5%,respectively.The resistance rates of A.baumannii to imipenem and meropenem were 65.0%and 71.6%,respectively.Conclusions Antibiotic resistance is still serious in this hospital.Nearly half of the strains of E.coli,K.pneumoniae and P.mirabilis produced ESBLs.K.pneumoniae and A.baumannii showed high resistance rates to carbapenems.Antimicrobial resistance surveillance should be performed appropriately.Relevant departments need to strengthen cooperation to curb the spread of drug-resistant bacteria.
4.Optimization and evaluation of cut-off values of the prolonged APTT plasma mixing test in distinguishing different reasons
Hong ZHAI ; Wei XU ; Yuying LI ; Jingnan SUN ; Beiying AN ; Linlin QU
Chinese Journal of Laboratory Medicine 2025;48(8):1022-1027
Objective:To validate and optimize the interpretation methods and cut-off values of prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) mixing test, in order to elevate the clinical applicational value in differentiating single factor deficiency, positive lupus anticoagulant (LA) and FⅧ inhibitors.Methods:This cross-sectional retrospective study involved 130 cases with single APTT prolongation for unknown reasons who underwent mixing tests in the First Hospital of Jilin University from January 1st, 2022 to December 31st, 2023, including 84 males and 46 females. Rosner index (RI), Percentage correction ("Chang") method, Normal reference interval (NRI) method, differential analysis, post-incubation prolongation time and percentage (including mixed immediately and ) were respectively calculated and analyzed for both immediate mixing and 2-hour post-mixing incubation. According to clinical diagnosis, patients were divided into single factor deficiency (51 cases), positive lupus anticoagulant (LA) (56 cases), and positive factor Ⅷ (FⅧ) inhibitor (23 cases). Receiver operation characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to determine the cut-off values for APTT mixing test methods in patients with different reasons for prolonged APTT, which were evaluted and adjusted by AUC, sensitivity, and specificity, and compared with the methods currently used for interpretations.Results:For the single factor deficiency cases, the AUCs of immediate RI index <7.5% and incubated RI index <13.9% were 0.87 and 0.90, respectively, with sensitivities at 87.8% and 83.8%, and specificities at 72.0% and 80.0%, whose combination had sensitivity and specificity at 87.3%, and 94.0%, respectively; the judging accuracy increased from 84.6% (110/130) in currently used rule to 93.1% (121/130). For the positive lupus anticoagulant (LA) cases, the combination of immediate RI index >10.3% and prolonged post-incubation clotting time percentage <9.1% showed 88.5% sensitivity and 99.8% specificity; the judging accuracy improved from 80.0% (104/130) in currently used rule to 86.2% (112/130). For positive FⅧ inhibitor cases, the combination of incubated RI index >17.0% and prolonged post-incubation clotting time percentage >9.1% had 99.8% sensitivity and 100.0% specificity; the judging accuracy increased from 89.2% (116/130) in currently used rule to 94.6% (123/130).Conclusion:This study validated and optimized the interpretation methods and cut-off values for the prolonged APTT mixing test in differentiating single factor deficiencies, prositive FⅧ inhibitors and LA positive cases, significantly improving the judging sensitivity and specificity.
5.Optimization and evaluation of cut-off values of the prolonged APTT plasma mixing test in distinguishing different reasons
Hong ZHAI ; Wei XU ; Yuying LI ; Jingnan SUN ; Beiying AN ; Linlin QU
Chinese Journal of Laboratory Medicine 2025;48(8):1022-1027
Objective:To validate and optimize the interpretation methods and cut-off values of prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) mixing test, in order to elevate the clinical applicational value in differentiating single factor deficiency, positive lupus anticoagulant (LA) and FⅧ inhibitors.Methods:This cross-sectional retrospective study involved 130 cases with single APTT prolongation for unknown reasons who underwent mixing tests in the First Hospital of Jilin University from January 1st, 2022 to December 31st, 2023, including 84 males and 46 females. Rosner index (RI), Percentage correction ("Chang") method, Normal reference interval (NRI) method, differential analysis, post-incubation prolongation time and percentage (including mixed immediately and ) were respectively calculated and analyzed for both immediate mixing and 2-hour post-mixing incubation. According to clinical diagnosis, patients were divided into single factor deficiency (51 cases), positive lupus anticoagulant (LA) (56 cases), and positive factor Ⅷ (FⅧ) inhibitor (23 cases). Receiver operation characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to determine the cut-off values for APTT mixing test methods in patients with different reasons for prolonged APTT, which were evaluted and adjusted by AUC, sensitivity, and specificity, and compared with the methods currently used for interpretations.Results:For the single factor deficiency cases, the AUCs of immediate RI index <7.5% and incubated RI index <13.9% were 0.87 and 0.90, respectively, with sensitivities at 87.8% and 83.8%, and specificities at 72.0% and 80.0%, whose combination had sensitivity and specificity at 87.3%, and 94.0%, respectively; the judging accuracy increased from 84.6% (110/130) in currently used rule to 93.1% (121/130). For the positive lupus anticoagulant (LA) cases, the combination of immediate RI index >10.3% and prolonged post-incubation clotting time percentage <9.1% showed 88.5% sensitivity and 99.8% specificity; the judging accuracy improved from 80.0% (104/130) in currently used rule to 86.2% (112/130). For positive FⅧ inhibitor cases, the combination of incubated RI index >17.0% and prolonged post-incubation clotting time percentage >9.1% had 99.8% sensitivity and 100.0% specificity; the judging accuracy increased from 89.2% (116/130) in currently used rule to 94.6% (123/130).Conclusion:This study validated and optimized the interpretation methods and cut-off values for the prolonged APTT mixing test in differentiating single factor deficiencies, prositive FⅧ inhibitors and LA positive cases, significantly improving the judging sensitivity and specificity.
6.Distribution and antimicrobial resistance profiles of bacterial isolates in Xi'an No.3 Hospital from 2019 to 2023
Xiaopu GUO ; Fang SHU ; Yanli LIU ; Qian XU ; Yajun ZHAI ; Bing QU ; Haifeng WANG
Chinese Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy 2025;25(3):312-319
Objective To investigate the distribution and antimicrobial resistance profiles of clinical isolates in Xi'an No.3 Hospital from 2019 to 2023.Methods Clinical isolates were collected from January 1,2019 to December 31,2023.Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was carried out according to a unified protocol of China Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network using Kirby-Bauer method or automated systems.The data were interpreted according to the breakpoints released by the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute(CLSI)in 2023.Results A total of 6 621 clinical isolates were collected from 2019 to 2023,including 1 569(23.7%)strains of Gram-positive bacteria and 5 052(76.3%)strains of Gram-negative bacteria.The prevalence of methicillin-resistant S.aureus,S.epidermidis and other Staphylococcus species(except SS.pseudintermedius and S.schleiferi)was 39.0%,62.3%,and 74.4%,respectively.Methicillin-resistant strains showed much higher resistance rates to most of other antimicrobial agents than methicillin-sensitive strains.No Staphylococcus strains were found resistant to vancomycin or linezolid.E.faecium strains demonstrated much higher resistance rates to most antimicrobial agents tested than E.faecalis.The prevalence of linezolid-resistant E.faecalis and vancomycin-resistant E.faecium was 0.9%and 0.4%,respectively.The prevalence of penicillin-nonsusceptible strains(PISP+PRSP)was 5.8%in nonmeningitis S.pneumoniae isolates.The prevalence of ESBL-producing E.coli,K.pneumoniae,and P.mirabilis in Enterobacterales was 48.5%,37.8%,and 47.2%,respectively.Among Enterobacterales strains,K.pneumoniae had the highest resistance rate to imipenem(18.2%)and meropenem(17.9%).Other Enterobacterales were highly sensitive to carbapenems.The resistance rates of P.aeruginosa to imipenem and meropenem were 22.5%and 19.5%,respectively.The resistance rates of A.baumannii to imipenem and meropenem were 65.0%and 71.6%,respectively.Conclusions Antibiotic resistance is still serious in this hospital.Nearly half of the strains of E.coli,K.pneumoniae and P.mirabilis produced ESBLs.K.pneumoniae and A.baumannii showed high resistance rates to carbapenems.Antimicrobial resistance surveillance should be performed appropriately.Relevant departments need to strengthen cooperation to curb the spread of drug-resistant bacteria.
7.Construction of a model based on multipoint full-layer puncture biopsy for predicting pathological complete response after neoadjuvant therapy for locally advanced rectal cancer
Ying JIN ; Zhiwei ZHAI ; Liting SUN ; Pingdian XIA ; Hang HU ; Chongqiang JIANG ; Baocheng ZHAO ; Hao QU ; Qun QIAN ; Yong DAI ; Hongwei YAO ; Zhenjun WANG ; Jiagang HAN
Chinese Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery 2024;27(4):403-411
Objective:To investigate the value of transanal multipoint full-layer puncture biopsy (TMFP) in predicting pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant radiotherapy and chemotherapy (nCRT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) and to establish a predictive model for providing clinical guidance regarding the treatment of LARC.Methods:In this multicenter, prospective, cohort study, we collected data on 110 LARC patients from four hospitals between April 2020 and March 2023: Beijing Chaoyang Hospital of Capital Medical University (50 patients), Beijing Friendship Hospital of Capital Medical University (41 patients), Qilu Hospital of Shandong University (16 patients), and Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University (three patients). The patients had all received TMFP after completing standard nCRT. The variables studied included (1) clinicopathological characteristics; (2) clinical complete remission (cCR) and efficacy of TMFP in determining pCR after NCRT in LARC patients; and (3) hospital attended, sex, age, clinical T- and N-stages, distance between the lower margin of the tumor and the anal verge, baseline and post-radiotherapy serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen (CA)19-9 concentrations, chemotherapy regimen, use of immunosuppressants with or without radiotherapy, radiation therapy dosage, interval between surgery and radiotherapy, surgical procedure, clinical T/N stage after radiotherapy, cCR, pathological results of TMFP, puncture method (endoscopic or percutaneous), and number and timing of punctures. Single-factor and multifactorial logistic regression analysis were used to determine the factors affecting pCR after NCRT in LARC patients. A prediction model was constructed based on the results of multivariat analysis and the performance of this model evaluated by analyzing subject work characteristics (ROC), calibration, and clinical decision-making (DCA) curves. pCR was defined as complete absence of tumor cells on microscopic examination of the surgical specimens of rectal cancer (including lymph node dissection) after NCRT, that is, ypT0+N0. cCR was defined according to the Chinese Neoadjuvant Rectal Cancer Waiting Watch Database Study Collaborative Group criteria after treatment, which specify an absence of ulceration and nodules on endoscopy; negative rectal palpation; no tumor signals on rectal MRI T2 and DWI sequences; normal serum CEA concentrations, and no evidence of recurrence on pelvic computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging.Results:Of the 110 patients, 45 (40.9%) achieved pCR after nCRT, which was combined with immune checkpoint inhibitors in 34 (30.9%). cCR was diagnosed before puncture in 38 (34.5%) patients, 43 (39.1%) of the punctures being endoscopic. There were no complications of puncture such as enterocutaneous fistulae, vaginal injury, prostatic injury, or presacral bleeding . Only one (2.3%) patient had a small amount of blood in the stools, which was relieved by anal pressure. cCR had a sensitivity of 57.8% (26/45) for determining pCR, specificity of 81.5% (53/65), accuracy of 71.8% (79/110), positive predictive value 68.4% (26/38), and negative predictive value of 73.6% (53/72). In contrast, the sensitivity of TMFP pathology in determining pCR was 100% (45/45), specificity 66.2% (43/65), accuracy 80.0% (88/110), positive predictive value 67.2% (45/67), and negative predictive value 100.0% (43/43). In this study, the sensitivity of TMFP for pCR (100.0% vs. 57.8%, χ 2=24.09, P<0.001) was significantly higher than that for cCR. However, the accuracy of pCR did not differ significantly (80.0% vs. 71.8%, χ 2=2.01, P=0.156). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that a ≥4 cm distance between the lower edge of the tumor and the anal verge (OR=7.84, 95%CI: 1.48-41.45, P=0.015), non-cCR (OR=4.81, 95%CI: 1.39-16.69, P=0.013), and pathological diagnosis by TMFP (OR=114.29, the 95%CI: 11.07-1180.28, P<0.001) were risk factors for pCR after NCRT in LARC patients. Additionally, endoscopic puncture (OR=0.02, 95%CI: 0.05-0.77, P=0.020) was a protective factor for pCR after NCRT in LARC patients. The area under the ROC curve of the established prediction model was 0.934 (95%CI: 0.892-0.977), suggesting that the model has good discrimination. The calibration curve was relatively close to the ideal 45° reference line, indicating that the predicted values of the model were in good agreement with the actual values. A decision-making curve showed that the model had a good net clinical benefit. Conclusion:Our predictive model, which incorporates TMFP, has considerable accuracy in predicting pCR after nCRT in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. This may provide a basis for more precisely selecting individualized therapy.
8.Association of different sleep characteristics and cardiometabolic risk in college students
Chinese Journal of School Health 2024;45(1):25-29
Objective:
To describe the association of different sleep characteristics and cardiometabolic risk among college students, so as to provide reference for health promotion of college students.
Methods:
By random cluster sampling method, a questionnaire survey and physical examination including blood pressure, waist circumference and blood lipid indicators, which were conducted in April and May of 2019 among a total of 1 179 college students from the first grade in two universities in Hefei City of Anhui Province and Shangrao City of Jiangxi Province. A total of 729 college students with valid questionnaires were included into analysis. The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) and Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) were used to investigate sleep behavior, and the Morning And Evening Questionnaire-5 (MEQ-5) was used to investigate sleep characteristics. The cardiometabolic risk score was derived using the sum of the standardized sex specific Z scores of waist circumference, mean arterial pressure, HDL cholesterol (multiplied by -1), triglycerides, and insulin resistance index. The rank sum tests were used to compare differences in cardiometabolic risk scores across demographic characteristics. Generalized linear models were used to compare the association of different sleep characteristics with cardiometabolic risk scores among college students.
Results:
The average cardiovascular metabolic risk score of college students was -0.32(-2.03, 1.58). There were statistically significant differences in cardiovascular metabolic risk scores among college students in variables such as smoking, health status, and physical activity levels ( t/F=-3.41, 12.88, 51.07, P <0.01). The results of the generalized linear model showed that nighttime preference ( B=1.89, 95%CI =1.02-3.49), insomnia symptoms ( B=3.25, 95%CI =1.79-5.90), and short or long sleep duration ( B=1.92, 95%CI =1.21-3.05) were positively correlated with the cardiovascular metabolic risk score of college students ( P <0.05).
Conclusions
Poor sleep patterns among college students are positively correlated with the risk of cardiovascular metabolism. The sleep behavior of college students should be actively changed to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease.
9.Application of Party building-guided quality control circle management in emergency services
Chengquan ZHAI ; Liping WANG ; Shoujing GONG ; Yadong LI ; Jilai QU ; Yugui HAO
Modern Hospital 2024;24(8):1175-1177,1181
Objective To investigate the role of quality control circle management guided by Party building philosophy in improving patient satisfaction in emergency services.Methods Quality control circle management guided by the Party building philosophy was implemented in May 2023.Two groups of 1 000 emergency patients each were selected,one from April to May 2023(pre-implementation)and the other from April to May 2024(post-implementation).The control group and the observation group were compared across several metrics in terms of satisfaction scores,satisfaction rates,120 emergency call response time,3-minute pre-hospital emergency dispatch rates,and average waiting times for emergency observation patients.Results The ob-servation group demonstrated higher satisfaction scores,satisfaction rates,and higher 3-minute pre-hospital emergency dispatch rates compared to the control group.Additionally,the observation group had shorter emergency call response time and average waiting time in the emergency department,with statistically significant differences(P<0.05).Conclusion The integration of quality control circle management guided by Party construction philosophy in the management of emergency patients has been shown to address operational issues,optimize service processes,and significantly improve patient satisfaction and experience.This method is worthy of broader application and promotion in clinical practice.
10.Construction of a model based on multipoint full-layer puncture biopsy for predicting pathological complete response after neoadjuvant therapy for locally advanced rectal cancer
Ying JIN ; Zhiwei ZHAI ; Liting SUN ; Pingdian XIA ; Hang HU ; Chongqiang JIANG ; Baocheng ZHAO ; Hao QU ; Qun QIAN ; Yong DAI ; Hongwei YAO ; Zhenjun WANG ; Jiagang HAN
Chinese Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery 2024;27(4):403-411
Objective:To investigate the value of transanal multipoint full-layer puncture biopsy (TMFP) in predicting pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant radiotherapy and chemotherapy (nCRT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) and to establish a predictive model for providing clinical guidance regarding the treatment of LARC.Methods:In this multicenter, prospective, cohort study, we collected data on 110 LARC patients from four hospitals between April 2020 and March 2023: Beijing Chaoyang Hospital of Capital Medical University (50 patients), Beijing Friendship Hospital of Capital Medical University (41 patients), Qilu Hospital of Shandong University (16 patients), and Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University (three patients). The patients had all received TMFP after completing standard nCRT. The variables studied included (1) clinicopathological characteristics; (2) clinical complete remission (cCR) and efficacy of TMFP in determining pCR after NCRT in LARC patients; and (3) hospital attended, sex, age, clinical T- and N-stages, distance between the lower margin of the tumor and the anal verge, baseline and post-radiotherapy serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen (CA)19-9 concentrations, chemotherapy regimen, use of immunosuppressants with or without radiotherapy, radiation therapy dosage, interval between surgery and radiotherapy, surgical procedure, clinical T/N stage after radiotherapy, cCR, pathological results of TMFP, puncture method (endoscopic or percutaneous), and number and timing of punctures. Single-factor and multifactorial logistic regression analysis were used to determine the factors affecting pCR after NCRT in LARC patients. A prediction model was constructed based on the results of multivariat analysis and the performance of this model evaluated by analyzing subject work characteristics (ROC), calibration, and clinical decision-making (DCA) curves. pCR was defined as complete absence of tumor cells on microscopic examination of the surgical specimens of rectal cancer (including lymph node dissection) after NCRT, that is, ypT0+N0. cCR was defined according to the Chinese Neoadjuvant Rectal Cancer Waiting Watch Database Study Collaborative Group criteria after treatment, which specify an absence of ulceration and nodules on endoscopy; negative rectal palpation; no tumor signals on rectal MRI T2 and DWI sequences; normal serum CEA concentrations, and no evidence of recurrence on pelvic computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging.Results:Of the 110 patients, 45 (40.9%) achieved pCR after nCRT, which was combined with immune checkpoint inhibitors in 34 (30.9%). cCR was diagnosed before puncture in 38 (34.5%) patients, 43 (39.1%) of the punctures being endoscopic. There were no complications of puncture such as enterocutaneous fistulae, vaginal injury, prostatic injury, or presacral bleeding . Only one (2.3%) patient had a small amount of blood in the stools, which was relieved by anal pressure. cCR had a sensitivity of 57.8% (26/45) for determining pCR, specificity of 81.5% (53/65), accuracy of 71.8% (79/110), positive predictive value 68.4% (26/38), and negative predictive value of 73.6% (53/72). In contrast, the sensitivity of TMFP pathology in determining pCR was 100% (45/45), specificity 66.2% (43/65), accuracy 80.0% (88/110), positive predictive value 67.2% (45/67), and negative predictive value 100.0% (43/43). In this study, the sensitivity of TMFP for pCR (100.0% vs. 57.8%, χ 2=24.09, P<0.001) was significantly higher than that for cCR. However, the accuracy of pCR did not differ significantly (80.0% vs. 71.8%, χ 2=2.01, P=0.156). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that a ≥4 cm distance between the lower edge of the tumor and the anal verge (OR=7.84, 95%CI: 1.48-41.45, P=0.015), non-cCR (OR=4.81, 95%CI: 1.39-16.69, P=0.013), and pathological diagnosis by TMFP (OR=114.29, the 95%CI: 11.07-1180.28, P<0.001) were risk factors for pCR after NCRT in LARC patients. Additionally, endoscopic puncture (OR=0.02, 95%CI: 0.05-0.77, P=0.020) was a protective factor for pCR after NCRT in LARC patients. The area under the ROC curve of the established prediction model was 0.934 (95%CI: 0.892-0.977), suggesting that the model has good discrimination. The calibration curve was relatively close to the ideal 45° reference line, indicating that the predicted values of the model were in good agreement with the actual values. A decision-making curve showed that the model had a good net clinical benefit. Conclusion:Our predictive model, which incorporates TMFP, has considerable accuracy in predicting pCR after nCRT in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. This may provide a basis for more precisely selecting individualized therapy.


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