1.Explainable Machine Learning Model for Predicting Prognosis in Patients with Malignant Tumors Complicated by Acute Respiratory Failure: Based on the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States
Zihan NAN ; Linan HAN ; Suwei LI ; Ziyi ZHU ; Qinqin ZHU ; Yan DUAN ; Xiaoting WANG ; Lixia LIU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(1):98-108
To develop and validate a model for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality risk in patients with malignant tumors complicated by acute respiratory failure (ARF) based on an explainable machine learning framework. Clinical data of patients with malignant tumors and ARF were extracted from the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States, including demographic characteristics, comorbidities, vital signs, laboratory test indicators, and major interventions within the first 24 hours after ICU admission.The study outcome was ICU death.Enrolled patients were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3.Predictor variables were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression.Five machine learning algorithms-extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), Logistic regression, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and C5.0 Decision Tree-were employed to construct predictive models.Model performance was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and other metrics.The optimal model was further interpreted using the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) algorithm. A total of 3196 patients with malignant tumors complicated by ARF were included.The training set comprised 2, 261 patients and the validation set 935 patients; 683 patients died during ICU stay, while 2513 survived.LASSO regression ultimately selected 12 variables closely associated with patient ICU outcomes, including sepsis comorbidity, use of vasoactive drugs, and within the first 24 hours after ICU admission: minimum mean arterial pressure, maximum heart rate, maximum respiratory rate, minimum oxygen saturation, minimum serum bicarbonate, minimum blood urea nitrogen, maximum white blood cell count, maximum mean corpuscular volume, maximum serum potassium, and maximum blood glucose.After model evaluation, the XGBoost model demonstrated the best performance.The AUCs for predicting ICU mortality risk in the training and validation sets were 0.940 and 0.763, respectively; accuracy was 88.3% and 81.2%;sensitivity was 98.5% and 95.9%.Its predictive performance also remained optimal in sensitivity analyses.SHAP analysis indicated that the top five variables contributing to the model's predictions were minimum oxygen saturation, minimum serum bicarbonate, minimum mean arterial pressure, use of vasoactive drugs, and maximum white blood cell count. This study successfully developed a mortality risk prediction model for ICU patients with malignant tumors complicated by ARF based on a large-scale dataset and performed explainability analysis.The model aids clinicians in early identification of high-risk patients and implementing individualized interventions.
2.Potential utility of albumin-bilirubin and body mass index-based logistic model to predict survival outcome in non-small cell lung cancer with liver metastasis treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors.
Lianxi SONG ; Qinqin XU ; Ting ZHONG ; Wenhuan GUO ; Shaoding LIN ; Wenjuan JIANG ; Zhan WANG ; Li DENG ; Zhe HUANG ; Haoyue QIN ; Huan YAN ; Xing ZHANG ; Fan TONG ; Ruiguang ZHANG ; Zhaoyi LIU ; Lin ZHANG ; Xiaorong DONG ; Ting LI ; Chao FANG ; Xue CHEN ; Jun DENG ; Jing WANG ; Nong YANG ; Liang ZENG ; Yongchang ZHANG
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(4):478-480
3.Construction of a new predictive score for severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome combined with bacterial/fungal infections based on clinical data
Ran WANG ; Yan DAI ; Qinqin PU ; Nannan HU ; Ke JIN ; Jun LI
Chinese Journal of Infectious Diseases 2025;43(4):202-209
Objective:To study the risk factors for combined bacterial/fungal infections in patients with severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) and to develop a novel and validated prediction model.Methods:The basic data and the results of the first laboratory examination after admission were retrospectively collected from patients diagnosed with SFTS who were hospitalized in the First Affiliated Hospital, Nanjing Medical University from January 2018 to December 2022. The patients were categorized into co-infected and non-co-infected groups according to whether they had co-infections with bacterial/fungal infections or not.Independent risk factors were screened by multivariate logistic regression analyses. A novel prediction model was constructed, and the predictive value of the model was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve. Non-parametric tests and chi-square test were used for statistical analysis.Results:A total of 294 patients were included, and 62 cases were in the combined infection group including 39 cases of simple respiratory tract infections, 11 cases of simple bloodstream infections, four cases of simple urinary tract infections, four cases of respiratory tract combined with bloodstream infection, and four cases of respiratory tract combined with urinary tract infection. Acinetobacter baumannii was mostly found in bacterial infections, with a total of 19 strains, followed by Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa, both with seven strains. Aspergillus were mostly common in fungi, with a total of 16 strains which were all collected from patients with pulmonary infections. Compared with the non-co-infected group, patients in the co-infected group had longer hospital stays, with statistically significant differences ( Z=-6.18, P<0.001). The patients also had higher frequencies of bleeding symptoms, neurological symptoms, severe illness, and death, with statistically significant differences ( χ2=23.91, 16.37, 15.51 and 15.58, respectively, all P<0.001). The aspartate transaminase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) was also higher in patients with coinfection, with a statistically significant difference ( Z=-4.64, P<0.001). Multivariate binary logistic regression showed that severe illness (odds ratio ( OR)=2.567, 95% confidence interval ( CI) 1.344 to 4.904, P=0.004), blood glucose level higher than 7.782 mmol/L ( OR=4.766, 95% CI 2.493 to 9.109, P<0.001), procalcitonin level higher than 0.228 μg/L ( OR=2.487, 95% CI 1.289 to 4.799, P=0.007), and APRI value higher than 6.268 ( OR=3.032, 95% CI 1.404 to 6.548, P=0.005) were the independent risk factors for co-infections in SFTS patients. Disease severity, blood glucose, procalcitonin, and APRI were combined to construct a novel predictive model: Infect-risk score=-3.331+ 0.654×severity (severe=1, non-severe=0)+ 0.160×blood glucose+ 0.066×procalcitonin+ 0.013×APRI. The AUC for this score was 0.764 (95% CI 0.698 to 0.830, P<0.001), with Youden index of 0.416, sensitivity of 0.839, and specificity of 0.578. Conclusions:Severe illness, blood glucose levels higher than 7.782 mmol/L, procalcitonin levels above 0.228 μg/L, and APRI values above 6.268 are independent risk factors for bacterial/fungal coinfection in SFTS patients. The constructed Infect-risk score model has good predictive value for bacterial/fungal coinfection in SFTS patients.
4.Research on the current status and influencing factors of post ICU syndrome in severe patients
Tingshu WANG ; Li YAO ; Yan LIU ; Bei JING ; Qinqin LI ; Tingrui WANG
Chinese Journal of Nursing 2025;60(19):2356-2363
Objective To explore the current situation and influencing factors of post-intensive care syndrome(PICS)in critically ill patients a month after their transfer out,and to provide a basis for formulating individualized intervention measures.Methods By the convenience sampling method,550 patients who were transferred out of the ICU of a tertiary A hospital in Guizhou Province for a month from April to November 2024 were selected as the survey subjects.The general information of the patients was collected and sorted out.During their stay in the ICU,the Barthel Index,the Richards Campbell Sleep Scale,and the Perceived Social Support Scale were employed for evaluation.A month after the patients were transferred out of the ICU,the assessment was completed through telephone follow-up using the Chinese version of the Brain Care Monitoring Questionnaire for Healthy Aging.According to the assessment a month after the patients were transferred out,they were divided into a PICS group and a non-PICS group.Univariate analysis and binary Logistic regression analysis were completed based on the data of the 2 groups.Results A total of 550 questionnaires were distributed,and 442 valid questionnaires were ultimately collected,with a valid questionnaire collection rate of 80.3%.Among them,194 cases(43.9%)were high-risk patients with PICS.Binary logistic regression analysis showed that advanced age,pulmonary infection,total hospitalization time>15 days,and internal environment disorder were the risk factors for PICS in ICU patients(P<0.05).Conclusion The risk of PICS is relatively high in critically ill patients a month after the transfer.Medical staff need to pay attention to patients who are older,have pulmonary infections and internal environment disorders,and formulate personalized intervention measures for different disease types to improve the long-term health prognosis of patients.
5.Research Progress in the Mechanism of Shaoyao Decoction in Regulating Cytokines for the Treatment of Ulcerative Colitis
Cuicui LIU ; Peng'an YAN ; Xi CUI ; Qinqin LIU ; Hanghang LI ; Rui ZHAI ; Shuxun SHI
Chinese Journal of Information on Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;32(10):179-184
Ulcerative colitis(UC)is a recurrent,chronic,nonspecific inflammatory bowel disease.Shaoyao Decoction has shown good efficacy in the treatment of UC,which mainly regulates the balance of cytokines to achieve the purpose of treating UC.This article reviewed the research progress in the mechanism of Shaoyao Decoction in the treatment of UC from two aspects of pro-inflammatory cytokines and anti-inflammatory cytokines.Research has shown that Shaoyao Decoction can regulate the body's immune response,alleviate intestinal inflammation,protect the intestinal mucosal barrier,restore normal structure and function of the colon mucosa through pro-inflammatory cytokines such as tumor necrosis factor-α,interferon-γ,interleukin(IL)-1β,IL-6,IL-8,IL-17,and anti-inflammatory cytokines such as transforming growth factor-β,IL-4,IL-10,IL-13,which can provide reference for UC related mechanism research and clinical treatment.
6.Impact of non-diabetic postoperative hyperglycemia on complications after anterior mediastinal tumor resection via lateral thoracic approach single-port thoracoscopy
Yan YANG ; Yang YANG ; Qinqin BAO ; Feng SHAO ; Qiulu ZHU
Journal of Chinese Physician 2025;27(8):1208-1212
Objective:To investigate the occurrence of non-diabetic hyperglycemia after anterior mediastinal tumor resection via lateral thoracic approach single-port thoracoscopy and its impact on postoperative complications.Methods:The medical records of 182 anterior mediastinal tumors admitted to the Nanjing Brain Hospital (Nanjing Chest Hospital) from January 2022 to March 2024 were retrospectively analyzed. All patients underwent anterior mediastinal tumor resection via lateral thoracic approach single-port thoracoscopy. They were divided into the hyperglycemia group ( n=54) and non-hyperglycemia group ( n=128) according to the occurrence of postoperative non-diabetic hyperglycemia. The postoperative complications were compared between the two groups. Patients with any complication showing statistically significant differences between the two groups were included in the complication group, and the remaining patients were included in the non-complication group. Binary logistic regression model was used to analyze the risk factors for postoperative complications in patients undergoing anterior mediastinal tumor resection via lateral thoracic approach single-port thoracoscopy. Results:The incidences of postoperative pain, wound fat liquefaction, wound infection, and pulmonary infection in the hyperglycemia group were significantly higher than those in the non-hyperglycemia group (all P<0.05). There were statistically significant differences in age, history of hypertension, triglyceride (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), operation time, and postoperative hyperglycemia between the complication group and non-complication group (all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, history of hypertension, operation time, and postoperative hyperglycemia were independent risk factors for postoperative pain/wound fat liquefaction/wound infection/pulmonary infection in patients undergoing anterior mediastinal tumor resection via lateral thoracic approach single-port thoracoscopy (all P<0.05). Conclusions:Non-diabetic postoperative hyperglycemia can increase the risk of postoperative pain/wound fat liquefaction/wound infection/pulmonary infection in patients undergoing anterior mediastinal tumor resection via lateral thoracic approach single-port thoracoscopy, and it is an independent risk factor for the above postoperative complications.
7.Effects of Early Postoperative Changes in Graft Viscoelasticity on Stress Distributions Within the Knee Joint Following Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction
Zizhan LIAN ; Bin SUN ; Shanjiang YU ; Yichen YAN ; Qinqin YANG ; Bin YANG ; Jie YAO
Journal of Medical Biomechanics 2025;40(5):1129-1135
Objective To investigate stress distributions of the knee joint at 0 and 15th day after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction(ACLR)under a compressive force through the axis of the femoral shaft onto the proximal femur.Methods A three-dimensional(3D)finite element model of the human knee joint incorporating viscoelastic material properties was developed.The one-dimensional(1D)Prony series viscoelastic constitutive model parameters for articular cartilage,menisci,ligaments,and anterior cruciate ligament(ACL)grafts were determined by fitting experimental creep curves.The viscoelastic parameters of ACL grafts at 15th day after ACLR surgery were extrapolated.Finite element simulations were then performed to analyze the von Mises stress distributions in knee ligaments,ACL grafts,articular cartilage,and menisci under 1.5 kN vertical downward compressive load applied to the femur,with loading durations of 1 second and 600 seconds.Results At 15th day after ACLR surgery,the initial relaxation modulus and equilibrium modulus of human ACL grafts remained elevated compared to native ACL tissues,resulting in a significantly higher stress concentration within the grafts relative to healthy ACL.Despite the compromised mechanical properties of the grafts after ACLR surgery,the vertical downward compressive force applied to the femur under both short-term(1s)and prolonged(600 s)loading durations,exhibited a minimal biomechanical impact on articular cartilage and meniscal structures.Conclusions Following ACLR,vertical compressive loads during weight-bearing rehabilitation exercises such as standing demonstrate minimal impact on articular cartilage and meniscus,while promoting fibrous regeneration of the graft.This renders such exercises a prudent early-stage rehabilitation strategy.Graft preparation requires balanced consideration of elastic and viscous properties,with grafts exhibiting higher relaxation modulus and viscosity coefficient than healthy ACL proving more effective in maintaining early postoperative knee stability.
8.Risk factors for dysphagia in community-dwelling older adults: a Meta-analysis
Lingli ZHANG ; Ran HOU ; Lin LIU ; Yan LIU ; Qinqin YU
Chinese Journal of Modern Nursing 2025;31(20):2709-2716
Objective:To systematically evaluate the risk factors for dysphagia among community-dwelling older adults.Methods:A comprehensive literature search was conducted in databases, including China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Data, VIP, PubMed, Medline, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library, with the search ending on July 31, 2024. The quality of cross-sectional studies was assessed using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) criteria, while cohort and case-control studies were evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). Meta-analysis was performed using Stata 18.Results:A total of 26 studies were included. The prevalence of dysphagia in community-dwelling older adults ranged from 7.9% to 63.7%. The following were identified as the risk factors for dysphagia ( P<0.05) : advanced age [ OR=1.17, 95% CI (1.08, 1.28) ], history of coughing or choking [ OR=7.25, 95% CI (3.66, 14.33) ], poor oral health [ OR=1.99, 95% CI (1.63, 2.43) ], impaired tongue-lip motor function [ OR=3.41, 95% CI (1.48, 7.85) ], reduced tongue pressure [ OR=1.63, 95% CI (1.16, 2.32) ], chewing dysfunction [ OR=2.18, 95% CI (1.57, 3.04) ], medication use history [ OR=1.22, 95% CI (1.02, 1.47) ], malnutrition [ OR=1.92, 95% CI (1.04, 3.56) ], history of the comorbid disease [ OR=4.18, 95% CI (2.61, 6.71) ], history of stroke [ OR=3.27, 95% CI (1.69, 6.33) ], depression [ OR=3.18, 95% CI (2.18, 4.65) ], frailty [ OR=1.43, 95% CI (1.12, 1.82) ], and male gender [ OR=2.91, 95% CI (1.70, 4.96) ] . Conclusions:Medical staff should pay close attention to the above-mentioned risk factors and develop targeted prevention strategies to reduce the incidence of dysphagia in community-dwelling older adults.
9.Effects of Early Postoperative Changes in Graft Viscoelasticity on Stress Distributions Within the Knee Joint Following Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction
Zizhan LIAN ; Bin SUN ; Shanjiang YU ; Yichen YAN ; Qinqin YANG ; Bin YANG ; Jie YAO
Journal of Medical Biomechanics 2025;40(5):1129-1135
Objective To investigate stress distributions of the knee joint at 0 and 15th day after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction(ACLR)under a compressive force through the axis of the femoral shaft onto the proximal femur.Methods A three-dimensional(3D)finite element model of the human knee joint incorporating viscoelastic material properties was developed.The one-dimensional(1D)Prony series viscoelastic constitutive model parameters for articular cartilage,menisci,ligaments,and anterior cruciate ligament(ACL)grafts were determined by fitting experimental creep curves.The viscoelastic parameters of ACL grafts at 15th day after ACLR surgery were extrapolated.Finite element simulations were then performed to analyze the von Mises stress distributions in knee ligaments,ACL grafts,articular cartilage,and menisci under 1.5 kN vertical downward compressive load applied to the femur,with loading durations of 1 second and 600 seconds.Results At 15th day after ACLR surgery,the initial relaxation modulus and equilibrium modulus of human ACL grafts remained elevated compared to native ACL tissues,resulting in a significantly higher stress concentration within the grafts relative to healthy ACL.Despite the compromised mechanical properties of the grafts after ACLR surgery,the vertical downward compressive force applied to the femur under both short-term(1s)and prolonged(600 s)loading durations,exhibited a minimal biomechanical impact on articular cartilage and meniscal structures.Conclusions Following ACLR,vertical compressive loads during weight-bearing rehabilitation exercises such as standing demonstrate minimal impact on articular cartilage and meniscus,while promoting fibrous regeneration of the graft.This renders such exercises a prudent early-stage rehabilitation strategy.Graft preparation requires balanced consideration of elastic and viscous properties,with grafts exhibiting higher relaxation modulus and viscosity coefficient than healthy ACL proving more effective in maintaining early postoperative knee stability.
10.Research Progress in the Mechanism of Shaoyao Decoction in Regulating Cytokines for the Treatment of Ulcerative Colitis
Cuicui LIU ; Peng'an YAN ; Xi CUI ; Qinqin LIU ; Hanghang LI ; Rui ZHAI ; Shuxun SHI
Chinese Journal of Information on Traditional Chinese Medicine 2025;32(10):179-184
Ulcerative colitis(UC)is a recurrent,chronic,nonspecific inflammatory bowel disease.Shaoyao Decoction has shown good efficacy in the treatment of UC,which mainly regulates the balance of cytokines to achieve the purpose of treating UC.This article reviewed the research progress in the mechanism of Shaoyao Decoction in the treatment of UC from two aspects of pro-inflammatory cytokines and anti-inflammatory cytokines.Research has shown that Shaoyao Decoction can regulate the body's immune response,alleviate intestinal inflammation,protect the intestinal mucosal barrier,restore normal structure and function of the colon mucosa through pro-inflammatory cytokines such as tumor necrosis factor-α,interferon-γ,interleukin(IL)-1β,IL-6,IL-8,IL-17,and anti-inflammatory cytokines such as transforming growth factor-β,IL-4,IL-10,IL-13,which can provide reference for UC related mechanism research and clinical treatment.

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