1.Predicting intraoperative blood transfusion risk in hip fracture patients using explainable machine learning models
Fengting LU ; Xiaoming LI ; Dekui LI ; Xianyuan XIE ; Jiazhong WANG ; Qing YU ; Gan HUANG ; Jun SHEN
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2026;39(2):196-202
Objective: To investigate the factors influencing intraoperative blood transfusion in patients with hip fractures and to develop a machine learning (ML) model for predicting this risk. Methods: A total of 424 patients with hip fractures who underwent surgical treatment between November 2022 and March 2025 in our hospital were selected. Key feature variables of intraoperative blood transfusion risk were identified using the Boruta algorithm. Four different ML algorithms—support vector machine (SVM), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), mixed discriminant analysis (MDA), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)—were used to develop predictive models for intraoperative blood transfusion risk. The predictive performance of the four ML models were evaluated using accuracy, precision, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, precision-recall curves (PRC), precision-recall gain curves (PRGC), and F1 scores. Shapley additive interpretation (SHAP) was used to interpret the final model. Results: Among the 424 patients, 77(18.2%) received intraoperative blood transfusion. The Boruta algorithm identified albumin (ALB), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), types of anesthesia, types of fracture, and hemoglobin (Hb) as key feature variables for predicting intraoperative blood transfusion risk. In model evaluation, the SVM model outperforms the other three models across multiple metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), recall, recall gain, accuracy, precision, F1 score, and the area under the precision-recall curve (PRC-AUC). The SVM model, interpreted and visualized based on SHAP values, effectively predicted intraoperative blood transfusion risk in patients with hip fracture. A visual online application was developed based on the SVM model (https://pbo-nomogram.shinyapps.io/blood/). Conclusion: Preoperative low ALB and Hb levels, prolonged APTT, general anesthesia, and intertrochanteric fractures are risk factors for intraoperative blood transfusion in hip fracture patients. The risk prediction model for intraoperative blood transfusion constructed based on the SVM algorithm has optimal performance, which provides new ideas and methods for the clinical early identification of hip fracture patients with high transfusion risk and the implementation of targeted interventions.
2.Analysis of risk factors for myopia in preschool children
Kang LU ; Jie XIAO ; Youhai WANG ; Kangrui LIU ; Qing WANG
International Eye Science 2025;25(8):1363-1370
AIM: To investigate the risk factors of myopia, and provide evidence for the prevention and treatment of myopia in preschool children.METHODS:This is a retrospective case-control study. A total of 168 preschool-aged children(168 eyes)were enrolled from the ophthalmology department at Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University between September 2021 and September 2023, selecting the eye with poorer vision for inclusion; the right eye was selected when both eyes had equal vision. Grouping criteria: Children with spherical equivalent(SE)>0 D and age-appropriate normal visual acuity(≥0.5 for ages 3-5; ≥0.7 for ages 6-7)were directly assigned to the non-myopia group. Children with SE <0 D underwent cycloplegic refraction after 3 days of 1% atropine sulfate gel application(three times daily). Those with SE ≤-0.50 D and failure to achieve age-normal visual acuity(<0.5 for ages 3-5; <0.7 for ages 6-7)were assigned to the myopia group, with 84 children(84 eyes)in each group. All participants underwent measurements of visual acuity, intraocular pressure, refraction, and ocular biometric parameters. Parents or guardians completed risk factor questionnaires during the visit, covering daily outdoor activity duration, daily electronic device usage/reading time, parental myopia status, maternal delivery mode, and full-term birth status.RESULTS:Significant differences were observed in uncorrected visual acuity, spherical power, SE, and axial length between the two groups of children(all P<0.05). No statistically significant differences were found in daily sleep duration, daily reading/homework time, maternal myopia status, mode of delivery, or full-term delivery status(all P>0.05). However, significant differences existed in daily outdoor activity time, daily electronic device usage duration, maternal myopia degree, paternal myopia degree, maternal age of myopia onset, and paternal age of myopia onset(all P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis identified the following risk factors for myopia in preschool children: daily outdoor activity under 2 h, daily electronic device use exceeding 60 min, maternal myopia degree, maternal early-onset myopia, paternal high myopia, and paternal early-onset myopia. Analysis of interaction effects children gender and myopia-related factors on SE revealed significant interactions of children gender with paternal myopia degree, maternal and paternal age of myopia onset(P<0.05). Simple effects analysis further demonstrated that girls exhibited higher degree of myopia than boys in families with paternal early-onset myopia, maternal early-onset myopia, or paternal high myopia(P<0.05).CONCLUSION:Insufficient daily outdoor activity time(under 1 h), daily electronic device use exceeding 60 min, and parental myopia are significant risk factors for myopia development in preschool children. Among these children, girls' refractive status was particularly associated with parental refractive status.
3.Gallstones, cholecystectomy, and cancer risk: an observational and Mendelian randomization study.
Yuanyue ZHU ; Linhui SHEN ; Yanan HUO ; Qin WAN ; Yingfen QIN ; Ruying HU ; Lixin SHI ; Qing SU ; Xuefeng YU ; Li YAN ; Guijun QIN ; Xulei TANG ; Gang CHEN ; Yu XU ; Tiange WANG ; Zhiyun ZHAO ; Zhengnan GAO ; Guixia WANG ; Feixia SHEN ; Xuejiang GU ; Zuojie LUO ; Li CHEN ; Qiang LI ; Zhen YE ; Yinfei ZHANG ; Chao LIU ; Youmin WANG ; Shengli WU ; Tao YANG ; Huacong DENG ; Lulu CHEN ; Tianshu ZENG ; Jiajun ZHAO ; Yiming MU ; Weiqing WANG ; Guang NING ; Jieli LU ; Min XU ; Yufang BI ; Weiguo HU
Frontiers of Medicine 2025;19(1):79-89
This study aimed to comprehensively examine the association of gallstones, cholecystectomy, and cancer risk. Multivariable logistic regressions were performed to estimate the observational associations of gallstones and cholecystectomy with cancer risk, using data from a nationwide cohort involving 239 799 participants. General and gender-specific two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was further conducted to assess the causalities of the observed associations. Observationally, a history of gallstones without cholecystectomy was associated with a high risk of stomach cancer (adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=2.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.50-4.28), liver and bile duct cancer (aOR=2.46, 95% CI 1.17-5.16), kidney cancer (aOR=2.04, 95% CI 1.05-3.94), and bladder cancer (aOR=2.23, 95% CI 1.01-5.13) in the general population, as well as cervical cancer (aOR=1.69, 95% CI 1.12-2.56) in women. Moreover, cholecystectomy was associated with high odds of stomach cancer (aOR=2.41, 95% CI 1.29-4.49), colorectal cancer (aOR=1.83, 95% CI 1.18-2.85), and cancer of liver and bile duct (aOR=2.58, 95% CI 1.11-6.02). MR analysis only supported the causal effect of gallstones on stomach, liver and bile duct, kidney, and bladder cancer. This study added evidence to the causal effect of gallstones on stomach, liver and bile duct, kidney, and bladder cancer, highlighting the importance of cancer screening in individuals with gallstones.
Humans
;
Mendelian Randomization Analysis
;
Gallstones/complications*
;
Female
;
Male
;
Cholecystectomy/statistics & numerical data*
;
Middle Aged
;
Risk Factors
;
Aged
;
Adult
;
Neoplasms/etiology*
;
Stomach Neoplasms/epidemiology*
4.Developing a polygenic risk score for pelvic organ prolapse: a combined risk assessment approach in Chinese women.
Xi CHENG ; Lei LI ; Xijuan LIN ; Na CHEN ; Xudong LIU ; Yaqian LI ; Zhaoai LI ; Jian GONG ; Qing LIU ; Yuling WANG ; Juntao WANG ; Zhijun XIA ; Yongxian LU ; Hangmei JIN ; Xiaowei ZHANG ; Luwen WANG ; Juan CHEN ; Guorong FAN ; Shan DENG ; Sen ZHAO ; Lan ZHU
Frontiers of Medicine 2025;19(4):665-674
Pelvic organ prolapse (POP), whose etiology is influenced by genetic and clinical risk factors, considerably impacts women's quality of life. However, the genetic underpinnings in non-European populations and comprehensive risk models integrating genetic and clinical factors remain underexplored. This study constructed the first polygenic risk score (PRS) for POP in the Chinese population by utilizing 20 disease-associated variants from the largest existing genome-wide association study. We analyzed a discovery cohort of 576 cases and 623 controls and a validation cohort of 264 cases and 200 controls. Results showed that the case group exhibited a significantly higher PRS than the control group. Moreover, the odds ratio of the top 10% risk group was 2.6 times higher than that of the bottom 10%. A high PRS was significantly correlated with POP occurrence in women older than 50 years old and in those with one or no childbirths. As far as we know, the integrated prediction model, which combined PRS and clinical risk factors, demonstrated better predictive accuracy than other existing PRS models. This combined risk assessment model serves as a robust tool for POP risk prediction and stratification, thereby offering insights into individualized preventive measures and treatment strategies in future clinical practice.
Humans
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Female
;
Pelvic Organ Prolapse/epidemiology*
;
Middle Aged
;
Risk Assessment/methods*
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Multifactorial Inheritance
;
Aged
;
Risk Factors
;
Genome-Wide Association Study
;
Genetic Predisposition to Disease
;
Case-Control Studies
;
Adult
;
Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide
;
Genetic Risk Score
;
East Asian People
9.Current status of generalized pustular psoriasis: Findings from a multicenter hospital-based survey of 127 Chinese patients.
Haimeng WANG ; Jiaming XU ; Xiaoling YU ; Siyu HAO ; Xueqin CHEN ; Bin PENG ; Xiaona LI ; Ping WANG ; Chaoyang MIAO ; Jinzhu GUO ; Qingjie HU ; Zhonglan SU ; Sheng WANG ; Chen YU ; Qingmiao SUN ; Minkuo ZHANG ; Bin YANG ; Yuzhen LI ; Zhiqiang SONG ; Songmei GENG ; Aijun CHEN ; Zigang XU ; Chunlei ZHANG ; Qianjin LU ; Yan LU ; Xian JIANG ; Gang WANG ; Hong FANG ; Qing SUN ; Jie LIU ; Hongzhong JIN
Chinese Medical Journal 2025;138(8):953-961
BACKGROUND:
Generalized pustular psoriasis (GPP), a rare and recurrent autoinflammatory disease, imposes a substantial burden on patients and society. Awareness of GPP in China remains limited.
METHODS:
This cross-sectional survey, conducted between September 2021 and May 2023 across 14 hospitals in China, included GPP patients of all ages and disease phases. Data collected encompassed demographics, clinical characteristics, economic impact, disease severity, quality of life, and treatment-related complications. Risk factors for GPP recurrence were analyzed.
RESULTS:
Among 127 patients (female/male ratio = 1.35:1), the mean age of disease onset was 25 years (1st quartile [Q1]-3rd quartile [Q3]: 11-44 years); 29.2% had experienced GPP for more than 10 years. Recurrence occurred in 75.6% of patients, and nearly half reported no identifiable triggers. Younger age at disease onset ( P = 0.021) and transitioning to plaque psoriasis ( P = 0.022) were associated with higher recurrence rates. The median diagnostic delay was 8 months (Q1-Q3: 2-41 months), and 32.3% of patients reported misdiagnoses. Comorbidities were present in 53.5% of patients, whereas 51.1% experienced systemic complications during treatment. Depression and anxiety affected 84.5% and 95.6% of patients, respectively. During GPP flares, the median Dermatology Life Quality Index score was 19.0 (Q1-Q3: 13.0-23.5). This score showed significant differences between patients with and without systemic symptoms; it demonstrated correlations with both depression and anxiety scores. Treatment costs caused financial hardship in 55.9% of patients, underscoring the burden associated with GPP.
CONCLUSIONS
The substantial disease and economic burdens among Chinese GPP patients warrant increased attention. Patients with early onset disease and those transitioning to plaque psoriasis require targeted interventions to mitigate the high recurrence risk.
Humans
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Male
;
Female
;
Psoriasis/pathology*
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Adult
;
Cross-Sectional Studies
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Adolescent
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Child
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Young Adult
;
Quality of Life
;
Middle Aged
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Recurrence
;
Risk Factors
;
Surveys and Questionnaires
;
East Asian People

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