1.Analysis and prediction of the incidence trend of congenital syphilis in China in 2005 - 2020
Yongfa QIN ; Yatao BI ; Jia ZHAO ; Zhenli WU ; Xue HAN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(2):12-16
Objective To analyze the incidence of congenital syphilis in four regions of China from 2005 to 2020 and predict its change trend, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of congenital syphilis. Methods The incidence data of congenital syphilis in eastern, western, central and northeastern China from 2005 to 2020 were collected. The annual change percentage (APC) and average annual change percentage (AAPC) were calculated by Joinpoint software, and the change trend was analyzed. The ARIMA model was established by SPSS26.0 software to predict the incidence from 2021 to 2025. Results From 2005 to 2020, there were 107 504 cases of congenital syphilis, and the incidence reached the peak in 2011, which was 0.90/100 000, and decreased to 0.09/100 000 in 2020. The incidence of congenital syphilis in the eastern, central, western, and northeastern regions of China decreased to 0.07/100 000, 0.06/100 000, 0.12/100 000, and 0.15/100 000 in 2020, respectively. Joinpoint regression analysis found that from 2005 to 2020, the incidence of congenital syphilis showed a downward trend in the whole country (AAPC=-8.68%, t=-5.18, P<0.05), the eastern region (AAPC=-12.01%, t=-6.81, P<0.05), the central region (AAPC=-5.45%, t=-2.09, P<0.05), and the western region (AAPC=-6.05%, t=-3.00, P<0.05), while the incidence in the northeast region was relatively stable (AAPC=-1.66%, t=-1.18,P>0.05). The ARIMA (2,2,0) model was constructed to predict that the annual incidence of congenital syphilis from 2021 to 2025 would be 0.06/100,000, 0.03/100,000, 0.02/100,000, 0.01/100,000, and 0.01/100,000, respectively. Conclusion From 2005 to 2020, the incidence of congenital syphilis in China shows an overall downward trend. The western and northeastern regions are the key prevention and control areas, and the work of "eliminating mother to child transmission of syphilis" needs to be continuously promoted.
2.Probability of premature death due to four types of chronic diseases and its impact on life expectancy in Yangpu District from 2010 to 2021
QIN Yongfa ; ZHAO Jia ; LI Hui ; CHEN Jing ; HAN Xue
Journal of Preventive Medicine 2026;38(2):130-134,139
Objective:
To analyze the impact of premature death due to four major chronic diseases on life expectancy in Yangpu District, Shanghai Municipality from 2010 to 2021, so as to provide the evidence for formulating chronic disease prevention and control strategies.
Methods :
Mortality data of registered residents in Yangpu District from 2010 to 2021 were collected through the Death Information Registration and Management System of the Shanghai Municipal Disease Control and Prevention Information Management Platform. The premature death probability of malignant tumors, diabetes, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and chronic respiratory diseases, and life expectancy of residents were calculated using the abridged life table method. Trends in premature death probability for four types of chronic diseases were analyzed using the average annual percent change (AAPC). The impact of premature death probability due to four chronic diseases on life expectancy was assessed by Arriaga's decomposition method.
Results :
The premature death probability due to four major chronic diseases in Yangpu District decreased from 9.88% in 2010 to 9.22% in 2021, showing an overall declining trend (AAPC=-0.540%, P<0.05). Among females, the premature death probability declined from 6.71% to 4.90% (AAPC=-2.715%, P<0.05), whereas no statistically significant trend was observed in males (P>0.05). Life expectancy increased from 82.52 years in 2010 to 84.50 years in 2021, with an overall upward trend (AAPC=0.244%, P<0.05). Life expectancy rose by 1.71 years for males and 2.34 years for females (AAPC=0.197% and 0.303%,both P<0.05). Declines in premature death probability from malignant tumors (AAPC=-0.967%, P< 0.05) and chronic respiratory diseases (AAPC=-3.071%, P<0.05) contributed to gains in life expectancy of 0.30 years and 0.03 years, with contribution rates of 12.18% and 1.29%, respectively. Changes in premature death probability due to diabetes as well as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were not statistically significant (both P>0.05), resulting in reductions in life expectancy of 0.05 years and 0.10 years, with contribution rates of -2.40% and -5.05%, respectively. Notably, an increase in premature death probability due to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases among males (AAPC=1.673%) contributed to a decrease of 0.22 years in male life expectancy, whereas a decrease among females (AAPC=-3.824%) contributed to an increase of 0.03 years in female life expectancy, with contribution rates of -13.03% and 1.14%, respectively.
Conclusions
From 2010 to 2021, Yangpu District experienced an overall decline in premature death probability due to four major chronic diseases and an increase in life expectancy. Greater attention should be paid to the negative impacts of premature death probability from diabetes as well as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases among males on life expectancy.
3.Staged Prevention and Treatment for Low Anterior Resection Syndrome Using Acupuncture
Ruotong CAO ; Mengqi WANG ; Xue CAO ; Yuning QIN ; Jia LIU
Journal of Traditional Chinese Medicine 2026;67(11):1157-1161
Low anterior resection syndrome (LARS) is a common complication of sphincter-preserving rectal cancer surgery, and its manifestations change dynamically at different stages. By analyzing and summarizing the clinical symptoms and pathomechanism evolution of LARS across different stages, this paper proposes a staged prevention and treatment strategy using acupuncture. During perioperative stage, the main principle is activating the transport function of the body, supplemented by regulating the mind, with the use of dredging the bowels as needed. During the stoma reversal stage, treatment focuses primarily on fortifying the spleen, with draining dampness as a supplementary method, to help consolidate the intestines. During the radiotherapy or chemotherapy stage, the main focus is reinfor-cing healthy qi, with reducing toxin as an adjunct, to achieve the effect of activating the transport of the pivot. During the survival management stage, treatment primarily focuses on tonifying the kidneys and secondarily on fortifying the spleen, with regulating the corporeal soul as the therapeutic emphasis. Acupoints are selected and combined in accordance with the treatment principles at each stage, and different stimulation methods such as electroacupuncture and moxibustion are applied. An analysis of the mechanisms underlying acupuncture for LARS is also provided, offering a theoretical basis and practical approach for the prevention and treatment of LARS with acupuncture.
4.Comparative analysis of the characteristics of imported malaria cases in Nanning City in 2024 and the same period of the previous year
Shu-lin WEI ; Zhi-qiang QU ; Yuan-yuan LUO ; Yan-cui HUANG ; Shu-qin DIAO ; Xue LI ; Sheng-long YANG ; Xiao-yu HUANG ; Mi-fang LUO
Acta Parasitologica et Medica Entomologica Sinica 2026;33(2):81-84
Objective To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of malaria and provide a basis for developing improved prevention and control measures. Methods Data were obtained from the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System. Malaria surveillance data for Nanning City from January 1,2023, to December 31,2024, were exported from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management Subsystem. The characteristics of the two groups of malaria cases were compared. Results A total of 103 imported malaria cases were reported in Nanning City in 2024, representing a 38.32% decrease compared with the same period of the previous year. No statistically significant difference were observed between cases reported in 2023 and 2024 in terms of average age, gender ratio, proportion of parasite species, and monthly reporting distribution;however, statistically significant differences were found in the proportion of reporting areas and current residence areas(χ2= 13.572 and 10.355, respectively; P = 0.001 and 0.035, respectively). The proportion of cases reported in Shanglin County and the proportion of cases residing in Shanglin County were both lower than those during the same period of the previous year. Conclusions The high aggregation of imported malaria cases in Nanning City has decreased. Medical institutions in areas other than Shanglin County should strengthen their vigilance against malaria.
5.Epidemiological characteristics and trends of non-suicidal self-injury among middle school students in Jiading District of Shanghai from 2015 to 2023
Chinese Journal of School Health 2025;46(9):1282-1286
Objective:
To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and changing trends of non suicidal self injury (NSSI) behaviors among middle school students in Jiading District of Shanghai, from 2015 to 2023, so as to provide a basis for the development of NSSI prevention and control measures among students.
Methods:
Using a stratified cluster random sampling method, a total of five times for Shanghai Adolescent Health Risk Behavior Surveys were conducted for every two years in Jiading District of Shanghai from 2015 to 2023. A total of 5 231 middle school students from junior high schools and senior high schools were selected for questionnaire surveys. Intergroup comparisons were performed using the x 2 test or the χ 2 trend test, and the JointPoint 5.0 software was used to analyze the changing trends, with the annual percent change (APC) used for evaluation. A binary Logistic regression model was employed to analyze the related factors of NSSI behavior among middle school students.
Results:
In 2023, the reported NSSI rate among middle school students in Jiading District was 14.2%. The rate was significantly higher among junior high school students (17.1%) than that among senior high school students (11.1%), and higher among females (19.2%) than that among males (10.0%) ( χ 2=10.04, 23.21, both P <0.01). From 2015 to 2023, the overall reported NSSI rate showed an increasing trend, rising from 8.6% in 2015 to 14.2% in 2023 ( χ 2 trend =22.25), with an APC of 6.64% ( t =3.49), and the APC for girls was 9.79 % ( t =3.20) (all P <0.05). Among students reporting NSSI, the proportion experiencing ≥6 episodes increased from 10.8% in 2015 to 19.2% in 2023 ( χ 2 trend =6.57, P <0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis indicated that girls, junior high school students, those with insomnia, depressive emotion and drinkers had higher risks of NSSI, compared to boys, senior high school students, those without insomnia, non depressive emotion students and non drinkers ( OR =1.71, 1.96, 3.44, 4.76, 1.77, all P < 0.05 ).
Conclusions
The reported rate of NSSI among middle school students in Jiading District of Shanghai, increased annually from 2015 to 2023, and the proportion of repeated NSSI also showed an upward trend. Early intervention measures targeting middle school students, especially junior high school students and females, should be implemented to prevent and control its occurrence and development.
6.Construction of a postoperative mortality risk model for patients with acute aortic dissection based on XGBoost-SHAP method
Xin ZHANG ; Min FANG ; Yi CAO ; Ting-Ting LI ; Xian-Kong LIU ; Jia-Yi DANG ; Xue-Sen ZHAO ; Hong-Qin REN ; Jia-Ze GENG ; Kai-Wen WANG ; Tie-Sheng HAN ; Yong-Bo ZHAO ; Dong MA
Medical Journal of Chinese People's Liberation Army 2025;50(10):1226-1234
Objective To develop a predictive model for postoperative mortality risk in patients with acute aortic dissection(AAD)using the Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)algorithm combined with Shapley Additive Explanation(SHAP),and to establish a prediction website to serve as a diagnostic and therapeutic support platform for clinicians and patients.Methods A retrospective cohort study design was adopted.Data from 782 AAD patients who underwent surgical treatment at the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2013 to December 2023 were collected,including basic information and initial serum biomarker test results.Patients were randomly divided into training and test sets at a 7:3 ratio.An external validation set consisting of 313 AAD patients admitted to the Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2020 to December 2023 was also established for further model validation.Variables were screened using LASSO regression,and an XGBoost machine learning model was constructed and interpreted using SHAP.The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis.Using the Shiny package,the XGBoost model was deployed to shinyapps.io to create a prediction website for postoperative mortality risk in AAD patients.One patient was selected by simple random sampling from the test set and the external validation set respectively for the prediction example on the Shiny webpage.Results The XGBoost model demonstrated high predictive performance for postoperative mortality in AAD patients,with area under the ROC curve(AUC)values of 0.928(95%CI 0.901-0.956)in the training set,0.919(95%CI 0.891-0.949)in the test set,and 0.941(95%CI 0.915-0.967)in the external validation set.SHAP values indicated the following order of variable importance in the model(from highest to lowest):"lactate dehydrogenase""blood chlorine""multiple organ injury""carbon dioxide combining power""prothrombin time""α-hydroxybutyric acid""creatine kinase isoenzyme""Stanford classification""combined use of bedside blood purification""gender""acute kidney injury""gastrointestinal bleeding""brain injury"and"shock".A risk prediction website for adverse postoperative outcomes in AAD patients was developed using XGBoost-SHAP method(https://dun-dunxiaolu.shinyapps.io/document/)and validated with examples.One randomly selected patient from each of the test and external validation sets was applied:the predicted mortality risk value for patient 1(who died postoperatively)was 0.9539,and that for patient 2(who survived postoperatively)was 0.0206.Conclusions The XGBoost-SHAP model demonstrates high accuracy in predicting postoperative mortality risk for AAD patients.The online prediction tool established based on this model enhances the identification efficiency of high-risk postoperative mortality patients.
7.Investigation of incidence of gathering and eating Trogia venenata among populations in communities affected by the Yunnan unexplained sudden death
Yanmei XI ; Xue TANG ; Lin MA ; Mengyao SUN ; Yongpeng YANG ; Yi DONG ; Mingfang QIN ; Yuebing WANG
Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine 2025;34(1):90-95
Objective:This study investigated the awareness and consumption of Trogia venenata among populations in regions affected by Yunnan unexplained sudden death (YUSD). The findings aim to support etiological research on YUSD and contribute to the formulation of preventive measures against Trogia venenata poisoning. Methods:This study was a case-control study. From 2018 to 2021, surveys were conducted in 90 villages across 25 counties within YUSD-affected areas in Yunnan Province. Households with YUSD cases were designated as case households, whereas households without YUSD cases served as controls, ande were selected through convenience sampling at a 3:1 ratio. An enhanced questionnaire was designed to collect information on the consumption of Trogia venenata, and symptoms following consumption. Frequency data were presented as percentages, and group comparisons were conducted using χ 2 tests or Fisher’s exact tests. Results:A total of 711 questionnaires were collected (response rate: 100%), comprising 175 case households and 536 control households. Trogia venenata was present in 80.82% of the villages surveyed. Among the 711 households, 15.89% reported consuming Trogia venenata, primarily through stir-frying (53.10%), followed by boiling (29.20%), boiling and stir-frying (15.93%), and steaming (1.77%). Most households (94.69%) consumed fresh fruiting bodies, with 69.02% consuming them fewer than three times annually. The consumption rates were higher among the case households than among the control households. Of the 113 households with a history of Trogia venenata consumption, 35.40% reported symptoms such as nausea, vomiting, and limb soreness. The proportions of affected families in each group were compared according to their source, cooking method, fruiting body status and consumption frequency. The proportion of affected families with high consumption frequency (≥3 times/year) was higher than that with low consumption frequency (<3 times/year). Among 421 YUSD cases, 63 cases (14.96%) had a history of Trogia venenata consumption before death, with 43 cases showing symptoms within the longest known latency period (14 d) for poisoning by this mushroom. Conclusions:Trogia venenata is prevalent in 80.82% of YUSD-affected regions, with 16.67% of the population reporting its consumption, predominantly as fresh fruiting bodies prepared by stir-frying or boiling. Confirmed Trogia venenata consumption was identified in 14.96% of YUSD cases, suggesting that mushroom poisoning is a significant risk factor for YUSD. Ongoing health education and interventions are critical for mitigating the risk of Trogia venenata poisoning.
8.Shikonin Induces Ferroptosis through ROS/JNK Pathway to Intervene in the Malignant Behavior of Pancreatic Cancer
Ruifeng QIN ; Jiadong XUE ; Jia ZHANG ; Fan LIU ; Shaohui ZHANG ; Liyang YIN ; Zengjiang YUAN
Journal of Kunming Medical University 2025;46(10):44-52
Objective To investigate if Shikonin(SKI)can induce ferroptosis via the ROS/JNK pathway to inhibit the malignant behavior of pancreatic cancer.Methods Human pancreatic cancer PANC-1 or BxPC-3 cells were selected.Drug efficacy experiments were established with a blank control group(Con group)and low,medium,and high dose SKI groups(2,4,8 μmol/L).JNK-related mechanism experiments were categorized into a blank control group(Con group),SKI group,and SKI+JNK inhibitor group(SKI+SP600125 group).ROS-related mechanism experiments were divided into a blank control group(Con group),SKI group,and SKI+ROS scavenger group(SKI+NAC group).Cell viability was assessed using the CCK-8 method to calculate IC50;Transwell experiments evaluated cell migration and invasion capabilities;the C11 BODIPY 581/591 probe was utilized for flow cytometry to detect lipid peroxidation levels,while the FerroOrange fluorescent probe measured ferrous ion levels;ROS levels were determined using a ROS detection kit;the Western blot method identified ferroptosis-related key proteins(SLC7A11,GPX4),apoptosis-related proteins(Caspase3,PARP),and JNK pathway proteins(JNK,p-JNK);an in vivo xenograft tumor model was employed to assess tumor proliferation.Results SKI treatment significantly and dose-dependently inhibited PANC-1 cell viability(IC50:6.04 μmol/L,P<0.0001)and BxPC-3 cell viability(IC50:12.27 μmol/L,P<0.0001),and significantly reduced migrating and invasive cell numbers(P<0.0001),with migration cell numbers dropping to about 30%of the control group at 8 μmol/L SKI treatment(P<0.0001).Mechanistically,SKI induced increased intracellular lipid peroxidation,Fe2+accumulation,and significant ROS production(P<0.0001),significantly downregulated SLC7A11 and GPX4 protein expression(GPX4 protein expression reduced to 40%of that in the control group,P<0.0001),and activated JNK phosphorylation(p-JNK/JNK ratio increased to 2.8-fold,P<0.0001).Pretreatment with the JNK-specific inhibitor SP600125 or ROS scavenger NAC effectively reversed SKI's inhibition of cell viability and downregulation of SLC7A11/GPX4 protein(all P<0.01).SKI also inhibited pancreatic cancer tumor cell proliferation in vivo(P<0.0001).Conclusion SKI induces ferroptosis by activating the ROS/JNK pathway,thereby inhibiting pancreatic cancer proliferation,migration,and invasion.
9.Trend analyses of the incidence and mortality of acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in Yangpu District of Shanghai from 2009 to 2022
Tao ZHANGN ; Yongfa QIN ; Jia ZHAO ; Hui LI ; Jing CHEN ; Xue HAN
Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine 2025;37(12):992-997
ObjectiveTo understand the incidence and mortality trends of acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in Yangpu District of Shanghai from 2009 to 2022, and provide a basis for the prevention and control of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events. MethodsData were obtained from the Shanghai Acute Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Events Surveillance Platform. Data on the incidence and mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in the population (age group, gender) from 2009 to 2022 were collected, and the Joinpoint Regression Program version 4.9 was used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) in the incidence and mortality rates of acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events. ResultsFrom 2009 to 2022, the crude incidence and standardized incidence rate of acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in Yangpu District showed no significant changes (AAPC=1.41%, P=0.569; AAPC=-1.03%, P=0.675), the crude mortality rate of acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in Yangpu District did not change significantly (AAPC=-3.04%, P=0.213), while the standardized mortality rate showed a decreasing trend (AAPC=-6.23% P=0.014). From 2009 to 2022, the crude incidence rates and age-standardized incidence rates for both males and females in Yangpu District showed no significant changes. The crude mortality trends for both genders were not significant, while the age-standardized mortality rates showed a decline (AAPC=-5.33%, P=0.029; AAPC=-7.50%, P=0.006). The incidence rate and age-standardized incidence rate were higher in males than in females. The crude incidence rates in the 30‒, 40‒, and 45‒year-old age groups increased annually (AAPC=9.13%、7.11%、4.67%, all P=0.001), and the crude mortality ratse in the 60‒, 65‒, 70‒, 75‒, 80‒, and 85‒year-old age groups declined annually (AAPC=-4.24%, P=0.044; AAPC=-5.41%, P=0.028; AAPC=-6.73%, P=0.004; AAPC=-7.46%, P=0.002; AAPC=-8.24%, P=0.002; AAPC=-6.16%, P=0.035). ConclusionFrom 2009 to 2022, the crude incidence, standardized incidence rate and crude mortality rate of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in Yangpu District tended to be stable, and the standardized mortality rate showed a downward trend. Men, middle-aged and young people were the key groups in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and it should be continued to improve the ability of medical emergency and increase the integration of medical and prevention.
10.Synthesis and Application of Salicylhydrazone Probe for Highly Selective Detection of Al3+
Hao-Xue TAN ; Zhong-Long WANG ; Xiao-Qin YANG ; Xiao-Ping RAO ; Ping ZHAO ; Qian JIANG
Chinese Journal of Analytical Chemistry 2025;53(2):214-223,中插3-中插12
In this work,four salicylhydrazone compounds(L1?L4)were designed and synthesized by using vanillin derivatives as raw material.The structures were confirmed by nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR)and high-resolution mass spectrometry(HRMS).The optical experiments showed that probe L1 and probe L3 could be used as aluminium ion(Al3+)fluorescence probes.The fluorescence color of probe L1 solution changed from colorless to blue after adding Al3+,and the limit of detection was 25.1 nmol/L.Compared with probe L1,the fluorescence color of probe L3 solution changed from colorless to green after complexing with Al3+,and the limit of detection was 17.3 nmol/L.Probe L1 and probe L3 showed the advantages of fast response speed,high selectivity and good anti-interference.The mechanism of Al3+recognition was further demonstrated by HRMS and 1H NMR.Cell imaging experiments showed that probe L1 and L3 had low cytotoxicity and had great application potential in detection of Al3+in vivo.


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