1.A novel nomogram-based model to predict the postoperative overall survival in patients with gastric and colorectal cancer
Siwen WANG ; Kangjing XU ; Xuejin GAO ; Tingting GAO ; Guangming SUN ; Yaqin XIAO ; Haoyang WANG ; Chenghao ZENG ; Deshuai SONG ; Yupeng ZHANG ; Lingli HUANG ; Bo LIAN ; Jianjiao CHEN ; Dong GUO ; Zhenyi JIA ; Yong WANG ; Fangyou GONG ; Junde ZHOU ; Zhigang XUE ; Zhida CHEN ; Gang LI ; Mengbin LI ; Wei ZHAO ; Yanbing ZHOU ; Huanlong QIN ; Xiaoting WU ; Kunhua WANG ; Qiang CHI ; Jianchun YU ; Yun TANG ; Guoli LI ; Li ZHANG ; Xinying WANG
Chinese Journal of Clinical Nutrition 2024;32(3):138-149
Objective:We aimed to develop a novel visualized model based on nomogram to predict postoperative overall survival.Methods:This was a multicenter, retrospective, observational cohort study, including participants with histologically confirmed gastric and colorectal cancer who underwent radical surgery from 11 medical centers in China from August 1, 2015 to June 30, 2018. Baseline characteristics, histopathological data and nutritional status, as assessed using Nutrition Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002) score and the scored Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment, were collected. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and Cox regression were used to identify variables to be included in the predictive model. Internal and external validations were performed.Results:There were 681 and 127 patients in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. A total of 188 deaths were observed over a median follow-up period of 59 (range: 58 to 60) months. Two independent predictors of NRS 2002 and Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) stage were identified and incorporated into the prediction nomogram model together with the factor of age. The model's concordance index for 1-, 3- and 5-year overall survival was 0.696, 0.724, and 0.738 in the training cohort and 0.801, 0.812, and 0.793 in the validation cohort, respectively.Conclusions:In this study, a new nomogram prediction model based on NRS 2002 score was developed and validated for predicting the overall postoperative survival of patients with gastric colorectal cancer. This model has good differentiation, calibration and clinical practicability in predicting the long-term survival rate of patients with gastrointestinal cancer after radical surgery.
2.Monitoring and analysis of avian influenza virus in poultry related environments in Shandong Province from 2020 to 2023
Ju-Long WU ; Shao-Xia SONG ; Yu-Jie HE ; Shu ZHANG ; Lin SUN ; Wen-Kui SUN ; Ti LIU ; Zeng-Qiang KOU
Chinese Journal of Zoonoses 2024;40(8):768-773
This study was aimed at understanding the pollution distribution pattern of avian influenza virus in the environ-ment in poultry related places in Shandong Province,to provide a scientific basis for the prevention,control,prediction,and early warning regarding human infection with avian influenza.From 2020 to 2023,6 523 environmental samples were collected in 16 cities in Shandong Province from four types of poultry-related places.Fluorescence quantitative PCR was used for nucleic acid testing of influenza A virus.Positive samples were further identified for the H5,H7,and H9 subtypes of avian influenza virus.The epidemiological characteristics of avian influenza viruses in the poultry related environment of Shandong Province were described,and inter-rate comparisons were performed with the x2 test.During 2020-2023,6 523 environmental samples were collected,and 1 007 cases positive for avian influenza virus were detected,with a positivity rate of 15.44%.H5,H7,and H9 subtypesand mixed infections were detected.H9 was the main subtype(88.48%)in positive specimens.A significant difference in positivity rates was observed among regions(x2=431.956,P<0.001),and the highest positivity rate was 28.93%.Significant differences in positivity rates were observed among monitoring sites(x2=304.604,P<0.001),sample types(x2=109.678,P<0.001),and quarters(x2=64.963,P<0.001).The positive detection rate was highest at monitoring sites in urban and rural live poultry markets(20.12%),and the positive detection rate of samples collected by wiping meat cut-ting board surfaces was higher than that of other samples(22.56%).The peak positive detection rate occurred in spring(20.31%).Widespread contamination with avian influenza virus was observed in poultry environments in Shandong Prov-ince.The H9 subtype,the main pathogen,coexisted with H5 and H7 subtypes,thus posing a risk of human infection with avian influenza.Therefore,prevention and control of avian influenza must be strengthened in key seasons,areas,places,and links.
3.An Exploratory Study on the Effects of Interatrial Shunt for Patients With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction
Sanshuai CHANG ; Wenhui WU ; Xinmin LIU ; Zhengming JIANG ; Yutong KE ; Qiang LYU ; Xin DU ; Jianzeng DONG ; Guangyuan SONG
Chinese Circulation Journal 2024;39(10):989-996
Objectives:To explore the effects of interatrial shunt on cardiac function and clinical prognosis of patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction(HFrEF). Methods:This study was a prospective single-arm study.From December 2021 to December 2022,15 consecutive patients with HFrEF from Beijing Anzhen Hospital were enrolled in this study.Interatrial shunt was performed with a D-Shant atrial shunt device.Right heart catheterization was performed before and immediately after device implantation,pulmonary capillary wedge pressure(PCWP),mean right atrial pressure(RAP),interatrial gradient pressure,mean pulmonary artery pressure,total pulmonary resistance(TPR),pulmonary vascular resistance(PVR),cardiac index(CI),and pulmonary/systemic blood flow ratio(Qp/Qs)were measured.Patients were followed-up for 12 months after procedure,changes in cardiac structure and function were evaluated by echocardiography.NYHA classification,6-minute walking distance(6MWD),and Kansas City cardiomyopathy questionnaire(KCCQ)were observed.All-cause mortality and rehospitalization for heart failure served as clinical endpoints. Results:Interatrial shunt procedure was successful in all patients.Compared with preoperative value,PCWP,interatrial gradient pressure,mean pulmonary artery pressure,and TPR were significantly decreased,while Qp/Qs was significantly increased immediately after procedure(all P<0.01).There were no significant changes in RAP,PVR,and CI post procedure(all P>0.05).There were no significant differences in shunt size,shunt velocity,and shunt pressure difference between postoperative immediately and at 12-months follow-up(all P>0.05).At 12 months,left ventricular ejection fraction was significantly higher than baseline level(P<0.05),and there were no significant changes in right atrial diameter and right ventricular fractional area change(both P>0.05).Compared with preoperative status,NYHA classification was improved,KCCQ score was increased,and the number of patients with 6MWD>450 m was increased at 12 months(all P<0.05).N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide value was significantly decreased at 12 months(P<0.05).No patient died during the 12-months follow-up period,and there were no device-related adverse events.Two patients experienced hospital readmission for heart failure. Conclusions:Implantation of interatrial shunt device could effectively improve hemodynamic parameters in patients with HFrEF and is related to significantly improved cardiac function at 12-months follow-up.
4.Efficacy of visualized precise lung expansion for determining intersegmental plane in thoracoscopic segmentectomy
Hongchun BIAN ; Xue WU ; Huixia WANG ; Fei WANG ; Qiang SONG ; Xiaoxia WANG ; Long-Xiang ZHANG ; Wei ZHANG ; Zhiqiang ZOU ; Chengjie GAO
Chinese Journal of Anesthesiology 2024;44(4):401-405
Objective:To evaluate the efficacy of visualized precise lung expansion for determining the intersegmental plane in thoracoscopic segmentectomy.Methods:Sixty-four American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status classification Ⅰ or Ⅱ patients, regardless of gender, aged 33-77 yr, with body mass index of 16-34 kg/m 2, undergoing elective thoracoscopic segmentectomy under general anesthesia, were included. They were preoperatively reconstructed with 3D CT bronchovascularization to reconstruct the pulmonary vasculature, bronchus, and the virtual intersegmental planes of the lungs. The patients were divided into 2 groups ( n=32 each) using a random number table method: visualized precise lung expansion group (group V) and modified expansion and atrophy group (group E). Group V used visualized precision lung expansion to determine the intersegmental planes, and group E used the modified expansion and atrophy method to determine the intersegmental planes. The intraoperative intersegmental plane determination time, target segmental bronchus identification and treatment time, anesthesia time, operation time, postoperative air leakage, pulmonary atelectasis, fever, occurrence of lung infection, postoperative 24 h drainage volume, drain removal time and hospitalization time were recorded in the two groups. Results:Compared with group E, the intersegmental plane determination time, target segment bronchial identification and treatment time, anesthesia time and operation time were significantly shortened in group V( P<0.05).There were no significant differences between groups in the 24 h postoperative drainage volume, drain removal time, hospitalization time or incidence of postoperative pulmonary complications ( P>0.05). Conclusions:Compared with the modified expansion and atrophy method, visualized precise lung expansion can effectively shorten the intersegmental plane determination time in thoracoscopic segmentectomy.
5.Thulium laser enucleation versus plasma kinetic resection of the prostate in the treatment of benign prostatic hyperplasia
Wei-Dong ZHANG ; Wen-Jia WANG ; Zhi-Qiang SONG ; Zhe MA ; Jia-Wei ZHANG ; Hao-Hao WANG ; Jian-Chen WU
National Journal of Andrology 2024;30(6):514-518
Objective:To compare thulium laser enucleation of the prostate(ThuLEP)with plasma kinetic resection of the prostate(PKRP)in the treatment of BPH.Methods:We retrospectively analyzed the medical records of 160 cases of BPH treated by ThuLEP(the observation group,n=80)or PKRP(the control group,n=80)in our hospital from January 2021 to December 2023.We recorded the operation time,bladder irrigation time,catheter retention time,hospitalization time,postoperative complica-tions,and pre-and postoperative maximum urinary flow rate(Qmax),residual urine volume(PVR),prostate-specific antigen(PSA)and prostate volume,followed by comparison of the data obtained between the two groups of patients.Results:Compared with the controls,the patients of the observation group showed significantly shorter operation time([67.25±7.24]vs[60.10±5.15]min,P<0.05),bladder irrigation time([46.90±10.77]vs[43.24±6.65]h,P<0.05),catheterization time([5.60±1.31]vs[5.03±1.24]d,P<0.05)and hospitalization time([7.31±2.00]vs[6.55±1.67]d,P<0.05),higher Qmax([18.50±1.24]vs[20.68±1.45]ml/s,P<0.05),lower PVR([12.10±3.53]vs[10.82±3.10]ml,P<0.05),PSA([4.60±0.78]vs[3.38±0.40]μg/L,P<0.05)and prostate volume([25.35±6.46]vs[20.12±5.13]ml,P<0.05)at 3 months after surgery,but no statistically significant difference in the total incidence of postoperative complications(7.50%[6/80]vs 5.00%[4/80],P>0.05).Conclusion:ThuLEP,with its advantages of notable effect,short operation and hospitaliza-tion time,significant improvement of urinary flow dynamics and prostate function,deserves clinical promotion for the treatment of BPH.
6.Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio may help predict pediatric testicular torsion in chlidren with acute scrotal pain before surgery
Xianya HE ; Chen WANG ; Yongjun YANG ; Junjie CHEN ; Xuecheng WU ; Zhuo LI ; Zhe LIU ; Guangqing SONG ; Yili TENG ; Jia CHEN ; Hongwei WANG ; Huayi ZHENG ; Yuanwei LI ; Qiang LU
Journal of Modern Urology 2024;29(9):785-789
Objective To explore the feasibility and accuracy of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(NLR)in the prediction of testicular torsion(TT)in children with acute scrotal pain.Methods A retrospective case-control study was performed on 158 pediatric patients with ultrasound suspicion of TT who underwent surgical testicular examination during Jan.2017 and Jan.2024.The patients were divided into TT group and non-TT group.Clinical data and laboratory data at admission were analyzed.Sensitivity and specificity of NLR to TT were determined with the area under the curve(AUC)represented on the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves.Results There were with no statistically significant differences in clinical data between the two groups(P>0.05).The NLR was significantly higher in the TT group than in the non-TT group[(4.82±2.37)vs.(2.85±0.75),P<0.05].The optimal cut-off value of TT predicted by NLR was 2.07,the AUC was 0.809(95%CI:0.709-0.909),and the sensitivity and specificity were 97.9%and 93.3%,respectively,which were significantly higher than other factors.Conclusion For suspicious ultrasound diagnosis of pediatric acute scrotal pain cases,NLR can be used to predict the possibility of TT and may help to evaluate the urgent surgical treatment in these patients.
7.The influence of knocking down the expression of low-density lipoprotein receptor associated proteins on the vascular abnormalities in hepatocellular carcinoma and its mechanisms
Qiang WU ; Linlin ZHAN ; Yu WANG ; Yuchao HE ; Lu CHEN ; Ziye CHEN ; Guangtao LI ; Dongming LIU ; Xu BAO ; Xiaomeng LIU ; Hua GUO ; Tianqiang SONG
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2024;46(5):399-408
Objectives:To investigate the effect of the expression of low-density lipoprotein receptor associated protein (LDLR) on the vascular abnormalities in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and its mechanisms.Methods:Based on the information of Oncomine Cancer GeneChip database, we analyzed the correlation between the expression level of LDLR and the expression level of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and CD31 in hepatocellular carcinoma tissues. Lentiviral transfection of short hairpin RNA target genes was used to construct LDLR-knockdown MHCC-97H and HLE hepatocellular carcinoma cells. The differential genes and their expression level changes in LDLR-knockdown hepatocellular carcinoma cells were detected by transcriptome sequencing, real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and protein immunoblotting. The gene-related signaling pathways that involve LDLR were clarified by enrichment analysis. The effect of LDLR on CEA was assessed by the detection of CEA content in conditioned medium of hepatocellular carcinoma cells. Angiogenesis assay was used to detect the effect of LDLR on the angiogenic capacity of human umbilical vein endothelial cells, as well as the role of CEA in the regulation of angiogenesis by LDLR. Immunohistochemical staining was used to detect the expression levels of LDLR in 176 hepatocellular carcinoma tissues, and CEA and CD31 in 146 hepatocellular carcinoma tissues, and analyze the correlations between the expression levels of LDLR, CEA, and CD31 in the tissues, serum CEA, and alanine transaminase (ALT).Results:Oncomine database analysis showed that the expressions of LDLR and CEA in the tissues of hepatocellular carcinoma patients with portal vein metastasis were negatively correlated ( r=-0.64, P=0.001), whereas the expressions of CEA and CD31 in these tissues were positively correlated ( r=0.46, P=0.010). The transcriptome sequencing results showed that there were a total of 1 032 differentially expressed genes in the LDLR-knockdown group and the control group of MHCC-97H cells, of which 517 genes were up-regulated and 515 genes were down-regulated. The transcript expression level of CEACAM5 was significantly up-regulated in the cells of the LDLR-knockdown group. The Gene Ontology (GO) function enrichment analysis showed that the differential genes were most obviously enriched in the angiogenesis function. The Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) signaling pathway enrichment analysis showed that the relevant pathways involved mainly included the cellular adhesion patch, the extracellular matrix receptor interactions, and the interactions with the extracellular matrix receptors. The CEA content in the conditioned medium of the LDLR-knockdown group was 43.75±8.43, which was higher than that of the control group (1.15±0.14, P<0.001). The results of angiogenesis experiments showed that at 5 h, the number of main junctions, the number of main segments, and the total area of the lattice formed by HUVEC cells cultured with the conditioned medium of MHCC-97H cells in the LDLR-knockdown group were 295.3±26.4, 552.5±63.8, and 2 239 781.0±13 8211.9 square pixels, which were higher than those of the control group (113.3±23.5, 194.8±36.5, and 660 621.0±280 328.3 square pixels, respectively, all P<0.01).The number of vascular major junctions, the number of major segments, and the total area of the lattice formed by HUVEC cells cultured in conditioned medium with HLE cells in the LDLR-knockdown group were 245.3±42.4, 257.5±20.4, and 2 535 754.5±249 094.2 square pixels, respectively, which were all higher than those of the control group (113.3±23.5, 114.3±12.2, and 1 565 456.5±219 259.7 square pixels, respectively, all P<0.01). In the conditioned medium for the control group of MHCC-97H cells,the number of main junctions, the number of main segments, and the total area of the lattice formed by the addition of CEA to cultured HUVEC cells were 178.9±12.0, 286.9±12.3, and 1 966 990.0±126 249.5 spixels, which were higher than those in the control group (119.7±22.1, 202.7±33.7, and 1 421 191.0±189 837.8 square pixels, respectively). The expression of LDLR in hepatocellular carcinoma tissues was not correlated with the expression of CEA, but was negatively correlated with the expression of CD31 ( r=-0.167, P=0.044), the level of serum CEA ( r=-0.061, P=0.032), and the level of serum ALT (r=-0.147, P=0.05). The expression of CEA in hepatocellular carcinoma tissues was positively correlated with the expression of CD31 ( r=0.192, P=0.020). The level of serum CEA was positively correlated with the level of serum ALT ( r=0.164, P=0.029). Conclusion:Knocking down LDLR can promote vascular abnormalities in HCC by releasing CEA.
8.The influence of knocking down the expression of low-density lipoprotein receptor associated proteins on the vascular abnormalities in hepatocellular carcinoma and its mechanisms
Qiang WU ; Linlin ZHAN ; Yu WANG ; Yuchao HE ; Lu CHEN ; Ziye CHEN ; Guangtao LI ; Dongming LIU ; Xu BAO ; Xiaomeng LIU ; Hua GUO ; Tianqiang SONG
Chinese Journal of Oncology 2024;46(5):399-408
Objectives:To investigate the effect of the expression of low-density lipoprotein receptor associated protein (LDLR) on the vascular abnormalities in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and its mechanisms.Methods:Based on the information of Oncomine Cancer GeneChip database, we analyzed the correlation between the expression level of LDLR and the expression level of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and CD31 in hepatocellular carcinoma tissues. Lentiviral transfection of short hairpin RNA target genes was used to construct LDLR-knockdown MHCC-97H and HLE hepatocellular carcinoma cells. The differential genes and their expression level changes in LDLR-knockdown hepatocellular carcinoma cells were detected by transcriptome sequencing, real-time fluorescence quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and protein immunoblotting. The gene-related signaling pathways that involve LDLR were clarified by enrichment analysis. The effect of LDLR on CEA was assessed by the detection of CEA content in conditioned medium of hepatocellular carcinoma cells. Angiogenesis assay was used to detect the effect of LDLR on the angiogenic capacity of human umbilical vein endothelial cells, as well as the role of CEA in the regulation of angiogenesis by LDLR. Immunohistochemical staining was used to detect the expression levels of LDLR in 176 hepatocellular carcinoma tissues, and CEA and CD31 in 146 hepatocellular carcinoma tissues, and analyze the correlations between the expression levels of LDLR, CEA, and CD31 in the tissues, serum CEA, and alanine transaminase (ALT).Results:Oncomine database analysis showed that the expressions of LDLR and CEA in the tissues of hepatocellular carcinoma patients with portal vein metastasis were negatively correlated ( r=-0.64, P=0.001), whereas the expressions of CEA and CD31 in these tissues were positively correlated ( r=0.46, P=0.010). The transcriptome sequencing results showed that there were a total of 1 032 differentially expressed genes in the LDLR-knockdown group and the control group of MHCC-97H cells, of which 517 genes were up-regulated and 515 genes were down-regulated. The transcript expression level of CEACAM5 was significantly up-regulated in the cells of the LDLR-knockdown group. The Gene Ontology (GO) function enrichment analysis showed that the differential genes were most obviously enriched in the angiogenesis function. The Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) signaling pathway enrichment analysis showed that the relevant pathways involved mainly included the cellular adhesion patch, the extracellular matrix receptor interactions, and the interactions with the extracellular matrix receptors. The CEA content in the conditioned medium of the LDLR-knockdown group was 43.75±8.43, which was higher than that of the control group (1.15±0.14, P<0.001). The results of angiogenesis experiments showed that at 5 h, the number of main junctions, the number of main segments, and the total area of the lattice formed by HUVEC cells cultured with the conditioned medium of MHCC-97H cells in the LDLR-knockdown group were 295.3±26.4, 552.5±63.8, and 2 239 781.0±13 8211.9 square pixels, which were higher than those of the control group (113.3±23.5, 194.8±36.5, and 660 621.0±280 328.3 square pixels, respectively, all P<0.01).The number of vascular major junctions, the number of major segments, and the total area of the lattice formed by HUVEC cells cultured in conditioned medium with HLE cells in the LDLR-knockdown group were 245.3±42.4, 257.5±20.4, and 2 535 754.5±249 094.2 square pixels, respectively, which were all higher than those of the control group (113.3±23.5, 114.3±12.2, and 1 565 456.5±219 259.7 square pixels, respectively, all P<0.01). In the conditioned medium for the control group of MHCC-97H cells,the number of main junctions, the number of main segments, and the total area of the lattice formed by the addition of CEA to cultured HUVEC cells were 178.9±12.0, 286.9±12.3, and 1 966 990.0±126 249.5 spixels, which were higher than those in the control group (119.7±22.1, 202.7±33.7, and 1 421 191.0±189 837.8 square pixels, respectively). The expression of LDLR in hepatocellular carcinoma tissues was not correlated with the expression of CEA, but was negatively correlated with the expression of CD31 ( r=-0.167, P=0.044), the level of serum CEA ( r=-0.061, P=0.032), and the level of serum ALT (r=-0.147, P=0.05). The expression of CEA in hepatocellular carcinoma tissues was positively correlated with the expression of CD31 ( r=0.192, P=0.020). The level of serum CEA was positively correlated with the level of serum ALT ( r=0.164, P=0.029). Conclusion:Knocking down LDLR can promote vascular abnormalities in HCC by releasing CEA.
9.Survival analysis of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma treated with adjuvant chemotherapy after radical resection based on CoxPH model and deep learning algorithm.
Jia Lu CHEN ; Xiao Peng YU ; Yue TANG ; Chen CHEN ; Ying He QIU ; Hong WU ; Tian Qiang SONG ; Yu HE ; Xian Hai MAO ; Wen Long ZHAI ; Zhang Jun CHENG ; Jing Dong LI ; Zhi Min GENG ; Zhao Hui TANG ; Zhi Wei QUAN
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2023;61(4):313-320
Objective: To establish a predictive model for survival benefit of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) who received adjuvant chemotherapy after radical resection. Methods: The clinical and pathological data of 249 patients with ICC who underwent radical resection and adjuvant chemotherapy at 8 hospitals in China from January 2010 to December 2018 were retrospectively collected. There were 121 males and 128 females,with 88 cases>60 years old and 161 cases≤60 years old. Feature selection was performed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Overall survival time and survival status were used as outcome indicators,then target clinical features were selected. Patients were stratified into high-risk group and low-risk group,survival differences between the two groups were analyzed. Using the selected clinical features, the traditional CoxPH model and deep learning DeepSurv survival prediction model were constructed, and the performance of the models were evaluated according to concordance index(C-index). Results: Portal vein invasion, carcinoembryonic antigen>5 μg/L,abnormal lymphocyte count, low grade tumor pathological differentiation and positive lymph nodes>0 were independent adverse prognostic factors for overall survival in 249 patients with adjuvant chemotherapy after radical resection (all P<0.05). The survival benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy in the high-risk group was significantly lower than that in the low-risk group (P<0.05). Using the above five features, the traditional CoxPH model and the deep learning DeepSurv survival prediction model were constructed. The C-index values of the training set were 0.687 and 0.770, and the C-index values of the test set were 0.606 and 0.763,respectively. Conclusion: Compared with the traditional Cox model, the DeepSurv model can more accurately predict the survival probability of patients with ICC undergoing adjuvant chemotherapy at a certain time point, and more accurately judge the survival benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy.
10.A nomogram for preoperative prediction of lymph node metastasis in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma based on inflammation-related markers.
Xiao Peng YU ; Jia Lu CHEN ; Yue TANG ; Chen CHEN ; Ying Hong QIU ; Hong WU ; Tian Qiang SONG ; Yu HE ; Xian Hai MAO ; Wen Long ZHAI ; Zhang Jun CHENG ; Xiao LIANG ; Jing Dong LI ; Chuan Dong SUN ; Kai MA ; Rui Xin LIN ; Zhi Min GENG ; Zhao Hui TANG ; Zhi Wei QUAN
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2023;61(4):321-329
Objectives: To construct a nomogram for prediction of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) lymph node metastasis based on inflammation-related markers,and to conduct its clinical verification. Methods: Clinical and pathological data of 858 ICC patients who underwent radical resection were retrospectively collected at 10 domestic tertiary hospitals in China from January 2010 to December 2018. Among the 508 patients who underwent lymph node dissection,207 cases had complete variable clinical data for constructing the nomogram,including 84 males,123 females,109 patients≥60 years old,98 patients<60 years old and 69 patients were pathologically diagnosed with positive lymph nodes after surgery. Receiver operating characteristic curve was drawn to calculate the accuracy of preoperative imaging examinations to determine lymph node status,and the difference in overall survival time was compared by Log-rank test. Partial regression squares and statistically significant preoperative variables were screened by backward stepwise regression analysis. R software was applied to construct a nomogram,clinical decision curve and clinical influence curve,and Bootstrap method was used for internal verification. Moreover,retrospectively collecting clinical information of 107 ICC patients with intraoperative lymph node dissection admitted to 9 tertiary hospitals in China from January 2019 to June 2021 was for external verification to verify the accuracy of the nomogram. 80 patients with complete clinical data but without lymph node dissection were divided into lymph node metastasis high-risk group and low-risk group according to the score of the nomogram among the 858 patients. Log-rank test was used to compare the overall survival of patients with or without lymph node metastasis diagnosed by pathology. Results: The area under the curve of preoperative imaging examinations for lymph node status assessment of 440 patients was 0.615,with a false negative rate of 62.8% (113/180) and a false positive rate of 14.2% (37/260). The median survival time of 207 patients used to construct a nomogram with positive or negative postoperative pathological lymph node metastases was 18.5 months and 27.1 months,respectively (P<0.05). Five variables related to lymph node metastasis were screened out by backward stepwise regression analysis,which were combined calculi,neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio,albumin,liver capsule invasion and systemic immune inflammation index,according to which a nomogram was constructed with concordance index(C-index) of 0.737 (95%CI: 0.667 to 0.806). The C-index of external verification was 0.674 (95%CI:0.569 to 0.779). The calibration prediction curve was in good agreement with the reference curve. The results of the clinical decision curve showed that when the risk threshold of high lymph node metastasis in the nomogram was set to about 0.32,the maximum net benefit could be obtained by 0.11,and the cost/benefit ratio was 1∶2. The results of clinical influence curve showed that when the risk threshold of high lymph node metastasis in the nomogram was set to about 0.6,the probability of correctly predicting lymph node metastasis could reach more than 90%. There was no significant difference in overall survival time between patients with high/low risk of lymph node metastasis assessed by the nomogram and those with pathologically confirmed lymph node metastasis or without lymph node metastasis (Log-rank test:P=0.082 and 0.510,respectively). Conclusion: The prediction accuracy of preoperative nomogram for ICC lymph node metastasis based on inflammation-related markers is satisfactory,which can be used as a supplementary method for preoperative diagnosis of lymph node metastasis and is helpful for clinicians to make personalized decision of lymph node dissection for patients with ICC.

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