Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.

Tropical diseases, the transmission of which is affected by multiple natural and social factors, pose a great challenge to global public health, notably in African countries. During the past several decades, China and African countries have continuously collaborated for the control of neglected tropical diseases and malaria, which has become an important part of global South-to-South cooperation and global health governance. This article reviews the history of China-Africa cooperation for tropical diseases control, summarizes the experiences and achievements over the past decade, analyzes the current challenges in the coopera tion, and proposes future recommendations. The China-Africa cooperation has achieved significant progress in the control of tropical diseases, such as malaria, schistosomiasis, and filariasis, and established a China-Africa cooperation network for tropical diseases control. Through the "Three-Step" strategy of China-Africa cooperation, the effectiveness of China's integrated control strategies has been validated in Africa, and the application of China's tropical disease control technologies has been promoted in African disease-epidemic countries. Currently, China-Africa collaboration, however, still experiences multiple realistic challenges, such as insufficient resources, difficulty in technology transfer, and weak primary healthcare systems. In the future, both sides are recommended to further strengthen policy coordination, deepen technological cooperation, innovate cooperation models, aiming to continuously promote the high-quality development of China-Africa cooperation for tropical diseases control.

ObjectiveTo establish a new noninvasive， simple， and convenient clinical predictive model by identifying independent predictive factors for rebleeding after endoscopic therapy in cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding （EGVB）， and to provide a basis for individualized risk assessment and development of clinical intervention strategies. MethodsCirrhotic patients with EGVB who were diagnosed and treated in The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Medical University from September 2018 to October 2023 were enrolled as subjects， and according to whether the patient experienced rebleeding within 1 year after endoscopic therapy， they were divided into rebleeding group with 93 patients and non-rebleeding group with 84 patients. Clinical data were collected and analyzed. The independent samples t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups， and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups； the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A Logistic model was established based on the results of the univariate and multivariate analyses， and the receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve and the area under the ROC curve （AUC） were used to assess the accuracy of the model. R software was used to visualize the model by plotting a nomogram， and the Bootstrap method was used for internal validation of the model. ResultsThe multivariate analysis showed that red blood cell count （RBC）， cholinesterase （ChE）， alkaline phosphatase （ALP）， albumin （Alb）， thrombin time （TT）， portal vein trunk diameter， sequential therapy， and primary prevention were independent predictive factors for rebleeding. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis， a logistic model was established as logit（P）=-0.805-1.978×（RBC）+0.001×（ChE）-0.020×（ALP）-0.314×（Alb）+0.567×（TT）+0.428×（portal vein trunk diameter）-2.303×［sequential therapy （yes=1， no=0）］-2.368×［primary prevention （yes=1， no=0）］. The logistic model （AUC=0.928， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 0.893—0.964， P<0.001） had a better performance in predicting rebleeding than MELD score （AUC=0.603， 95%CI： 0.520—0.687， P=0.003）， Child-Pugh class （AUC=0.650， 95%CI： 0.578—0.722， P=0.001）， and FIB-4 index （AUC=0.587， 95%CI： 0.503—0.671， P=0.045）. The model had an optimal cut-off value of 0.607， a sensitivity of 0.817， and a specificity of 0.817. Internal validation confirmed that the model had good predictive performance and accuracy. ConclusionSequential therapy， implementation of primary prevention， an increase in RBC， and an increase in Alb are protective factors against rebleeding， while prolonged TT and widened main portal vein diameter are risk factors. The logistic model based on these independent predictive factors can predict rebleeding and thus holds promise for clinical application.

Aim To investigate the role and regulatory mechanism of CREB regulated transcription coactivator 2(CRTC2)in cardiomyocyte hypertrophy.Methods A pathological cardiomyocyte hypertrophy model was established in C57BL/6 mice by intraperitoneal injection of isoproterenol(ISO),the expression of CRTC2 in cardiac tissue was detec-ted by Western blot.The CRTC2 knockout mice model was constructed,the cardiac function of mice was detected by small animal echocardiography,the collagen fiber content in mice cardiac tissue was detected by Masson staining,the car-diomyocyte hypertrophy related proteins:skeletal muscle α1-actin(ACTA1)and brain natriuretic peptide(BNP),as well as ferroptosis related proteins:acyl-CoA synthetase long chain family member 4(ACSL4),solute carrier family 7 member 11(SLC7A11)and glutathione peroxidase 4(GPX4)in mice cardiac tissue were detected by Western blot,the iron ion content in mice cardiac tissue was detected by iron ion kit,to evaluate the correlation between CRTC2 and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and ferroptosis.H9c2 cells were induced by ISO to construct an in vitro model of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy,the protein expressions of CRTC2,ACTA1,BNP,ACSL4,SLC7A11 and GPX4 were detected after intervention with fer-roptosis inhibitor ferrostatin-1(Fer-1).H9c2 cells with CRTC2 overexpression induced by ISO were used to construct an in vitro model of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy,the related indicators of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and ferroptosis were detec-ted to explore the mechanism of CRTC2 in cardiomyocyte hypertrophy.Results Compared with the control group,the expression of CRTC2 protein in the cardiac tissue of ISO induced cardiomyocyte hypertrophy mice was increased(P＜0.05).Compared with wild-type mice,CRTC2-/-mice showed worsened cardiac function,manifested as increased left ventricular end-diastolic diameter(LVEDD),left ventricular end-systolic diameter(LVESD),left ventricular posterior wall thickness(LVPWT),heart weight/tibia length(HW/TL)and heart weight/body weight(HW/BW),decreased short axis shortening(FS)and ejection fraction(EF),increased collagen fiber content in cardiac tissue,upregulated ex-pression of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy-related proteins ACTA1 and BNP,increased mRNA and protein expression of ferrop-tosis-related protein ACSL4,decreased mRNA and protein expression of SLC7A11 and GPX4,and elevated iron ion content in cardiac tissue(P＜0.05 or P＜0.01).In vitro experiments showed that compared with ISO group,the ISO+Fer-1 group had no significant change in CRTC2 protein expression(P＞0.05),the expression of ACTA1 and BNP protein decreased,the surface area of cardiomyocyte reduced,the expression of ACSL4 protein decreased,and the expression of SLC7A11 and GPX4 proteins increased(P＜0.05 or P＜0.01).Compared with the ISO group,the LV-CRTC2+ISO group showed a decrease in surface area of cardiomyocytes(P＜0.01),a decrease in ACTA1,BNP and ACSL4 protein ex-pression,an increase in SLC7A11 and GPX4 protein expression,and a decrease in ROS and iron ion content(P＜0.05 or P＜0.01).Conclusion CRTC2 alleviates cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and protect cardiac function by suppressing fer-roptosis in cardiomyocytes.

Objective:To study the comprehensive surgical treatment of brucellosis with chest wall cysts as the main manifestation.Methods:Retrospective analysis was made on the general information epidemiological characteristics, clinical manifestations, laboratory examinations, imaging examinations, treatment and outcomes of five patients with brucellosis mainly manifested by chest wall cysts admitted to the 948 Hospital of the People's Liberation Army from July 2019 to June 2022.Results:Among the 5 patients, there were 4 males and 1 female, aged between 23 and 64 years old, with a clear history of contact with cattle and sheep. The main clinical manifestation was painless cystic masses on the chest wall. Both the serum tiger red plate agglutination test (RBPT) and the test tube agglutination test (SAT) were positive. Four cases were infected with Brucella and one case was infected with Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae (considered as Brucella infection based on the overall condition). All patients exhibited abnormal chest wall signals (manifesting as hypointense on T1-weighted imaging and hyperintense on T2-weighted imaging) on magnetic resonance imaging(MRI), and were ultimately diagnosed with brucellosis presenting predominantly as chest wall cysts. After complete removal of the chest wall cyst through surgery, a combination treatment of rifampicin capsules and doxycycline hyclate tablets was given for 6 weeks. There were no significant adverse reactions and the wound healed in one stage. During the postoperative follow-up period of 11 - 40 months, MRI reexamination demonstrated no evidence of chest wall cyst recurrence, and all SAT results were negative. Conclusions:Patients with brucellosis presenting as chest wall cysts are clinically rare and lack specific symptoms. Surgical resection of the affected lesion combined with early, standardized, combined, and full course antimicrobial therapy results in a good prognosis for the patient.

Objective To explore the feasibility of using the left inferior phrenic vein as an anatomical landmark and prioritizing the dissection of the central adrenal vein in retroperitoneal laparoscopic left adrenalectomy(RLLA).Methods 116 patients who had RLLA carried out in our hospital between January 2021 and December 2023 were chosen.They were separated into the experimental group(RLLA with the left inferior phrenic vein as an anatomical landmark and prioritizing the dissection of the central adrenal vein)and the control group[conventional three-layer method anatomic retroperitoneal laparoscopic adrenalectomy(RLA)],with 58 cases in each group.The clinical data of the two groups were compared,and the intraoperative and postoperative 24 h clinical indicators,stress indicators,immune function,and complications were evaluated.Results RLLA was successfully completed in two groups,and no cases were converted to open surgery.The operation time,time for searching the central vein,retention time of the drainage tube and postoperative hospital stay in the experimental group were significantly shorter than those in the control group.The intraoperative blood loss and postoperative drainage volume were significantly less than those in the control group,the differences were all statistically significant(P<0.05);There was no statistically significant difference in the recovery time of gastrointestinal function between the two groups of patients after surgery(P>0.05).There were no statistically significant differences in preoperative inflammatory factors,stress indicators and immune function indicators between the two groups of patients(P>0.05).The white blood cell(WBC),C-reaction protein(CRP)and interleukin-6(IL-6)of the two groups of patients 24 hours after the operation were significantly higher than those before the operation,but the experimental group was significantly lower than the control group,the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).The malondialdehyde(MDA)of the two groups of patients 24 hours after the operation was significantly higher than that before the operation,while the superoxide dismutase(SOD)and glutathione peroxidase(GSH-Px)were significantly lower than those before the operation,and the MDA in the experimental group was significantly lower than that in the control group,and the SOD and GSH-Px were significantly higher than those in the control group(P<0.05).The levels of CD4+and CD4+/CD8+in experimental groups of patients 24 hours after the operation were significantly decreased than those before the operation,and the levels of CD3+,CD4+and CD4+/CD8+in the experimental group were significantly higher than those in the control group.The differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).There was no statistically significant difference in CD8+between the two groups of patients 24 hours after surgery(P>0.05).The number of cases with intraoperative blood pressure fluctuations in the experimental group was significantly lower than that in the control group,the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).Neither peritoneal injury,renal pedicle vascular injury or retroperitoneal hematoma occurred during or after the operation in the two groups of patients.Conclusion In RLLA,using the left inferior phrenic vein as an anatomical landmark and prioritizing the dissection of the central adrenal vein is feasible,which can improve surgical indicators,reduce stress response and immune response,and have clinical application value.

Objective:To study the comprehensive surgical treatment of brucellosis with chest wall cysts as the main manifestation.Methods:Retrospective analysis was made on the general information epidemiological characteristics, clinical manifestations, laboratory examinations, imaging examinations, treatment and outcomes of five patients with brucellosis mainly manifested by chest wall cysts admitted to the 948 Hospital of the People's Liberation Army from July 2019 to June 2022.Results:Among the 5 patients, there were 4 males and 1 female, aged between 23 and 64 years old, with a clear history of contact with cattle and sheep. The main clinical manifestation was painless cystic masses on the chest wall. Both the serum tiger red plate agglutination test (RBPT) and the test tube agglutination test (SAT) were positive. Four cases were infected with Brucella and one case was infected with Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae (considered as Brucella infection based on the overall condition). All patients exhibited abnormal chest wall signals (manifesting as hypointense on T1-weighted imaging and hyperintense on T2-weighted imaging) on magnetic resonance imaging(MRI), and were ultimately diagnosed with brucellosis presenting predominantly as chest wall cysts. After complete removal of the chest wall cyst through surgery, a combination treatment of rifampicin capsules and doxycycline hyclate tablets was given for 6 weeks. There were no significant adverse reactions and the wound healed in one stage. During the postoperative follow-up period of 11 - 40 months, MRI reexamination demonstrated no evidence of chest wall cyst recurrence, and all SAT results were negative. Conclusions:Patients with brucellosis presenting as chest wall cysts are clinically rare and lack specific symptoms. Surgical resection of the affected lesion combined with early, standardized, combined, and full course antimicrobial therapy results in a good prognosis for the patient.

Objective:To analyze the effect of joint management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) between specialty and community under the model of National Diabetes Prevention and Control Center (DPCC).Methods:A total of 2 527 T2DM patients managed by DPCC Pingshan Center of Shenzhen from January 1, 2022 to December 31, 2024 were retrospectively included. After management, the rate of downturn, reexamination rate, blood pressure compliance rate, metabolic indicators (waist circumference, body mass index, fasting blood glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin, blood lipids) and screening rate of chronic complications of diabetes (atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, microvascular disease, diabetic peripheral neuropathy) were analyzed. Those included 2022 ( n=564), 2023 ( n=1 477), and 2024 ( n=2 527). Results:The downturn rate in 2022, 2023 and 2024 increased year by year (22.8% vs 67.2% vs 89.9%, P<0.01), and the review rate (41.1% vs 62.2% vs 52.7%, P<0.01), complication screening rate (51.6% vs 85.3% vs 62.2%, P<0.01), blood pressure compliance rate (53.1% vs 78.0% vs 67.2%, P<0.01), body mass index compliance rate (13.2% vs 17.3% vs 28.6%, P<0.01), fasting blood glucose meeting rate (46.4% vs 60.2% vs 68.5%, P<0.01), glycated hemoglobin meeting rate (58.4% vs 63.2% vs 45.6%, P<0.01) were relatively improved. Waist circumference compliance rate (30.6% vs 27.7% vs 21.6%) and blood lipid compliance rate (33.6% vs 35.5% vs 31.9%) were not significantly improved, and the review rate, blood pressure compliance rate and complication screening rate in 2024 were lower than those in 2023 and higher than those in 2022. Conclusions:The combined management of type 2 diabetes under the DPCC model has significant effects on improving the down-conversion rate, rediagnosis rate, blood pressure compliance rate, metabolic index compliance rate and the screening rate of diabetes-related chronic complications in patients with diabetes. At the same time, it was also found that with the progress of hierarchical diagnosis and treatment, the review rate, complication screening rate, blood pressure, waist circumference, blood lipid and glycosylated hemoglobin reached the standard of patients decreased compared with the previous situation, which needs to be further analyzed and improved.

Objective:To analyze the effect of joint management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) between specialty and community under the model of National Diabetes Prevention and Control Center (DPCC).Methods:A total of 2 527 T2DM patients managed by DPCC Pingshan Center of Shenzhen from January 1, 2022 to December 31, 2024 were retrospectively included. After management, the rate of downturn, reexamination rate, blood pressure compliance rate, metabolic indicators (waist circumference, body mass index, fasting blood glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin, blood lipids) and screening rate of chronic complications of diabetes (atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, microvascular disease, diabetic peripheral neuropathy) were analyzed. Those included 2022 ( n=564), 2023 ( n=1 477), and 2024 ( n=2 527). Results:The downturn rate in 2022, 2023 and 2024 increased year by year (22.8% vs 67.2% vs 89.9%, P<0.01), and the review rate (41.1% vs 62.2% vs 52.7%, P<0.01), complication screening rate (51.6% vs 85.3% vs 62.2%, P<0.01), blood pressure compliance rate (53.1% vs 78.0% vs 67.2%, P<0.01), body mass index compliance rate (13.2% vs 17.3% vs 28.6%, P<0.01), fasting blood glucose meeting rate (46.4% vs 60.2% vs 68.5%, P<0.01), glycated hemoglobin meeting rate (58.4% vs 63.2% vs 45.6%, P<0.01) were relatively improved. Waist circumference compliance rate (30.6% vs 27.7% vs 21.6%) and blood lipid compliance rate (33.6% vs 35.5% vs 31.9%) were not significantly improved, and the review rate, blood pressure compliance rate and complication screening rate in 2024 were lower than those in 2023 and higher than those in 2022. Conclusions:The combined management of type 2 diabetes under the DPCC model has significant effects on improving the down-conversion rate, rediagnosis rate, blood pressure compliance rate, metabolic index compliance rate and the screening rate of diabetes-related chronic complications in patients with diabetes. At the same time, it was also found that with the progress of hierarchical diagnosis and treatment, the review rate, complication screening rate, blood pressure, waist circumference, blood lipid and glycosylated hemoglobin reached the standard of patients decreased compared with the previous situation, which needs to be further analyzed and improved.

Aim To investigate the role and regulatory mechanism of CREB regulated transcription coactivator 2(CRTC2)in cardiomyocyte hypertrophy.Methods A pathological cardiomyocyte hypertrophy model was established in C57BL/6 mice by intraperitoneal injection of isoproterenol(ISO),the expression of CRTC2 in cardiac tissue was detec-ted by Western blot.The CRTC2 knockout mice model was constructed,the cardiac function of mice was detected by small animal echocardiography,the collagen fiber content in mice cardiac tissue was detected by Masson staining,the car-diomyocyte hypertrophy related proteins:skeletal muscle α1-actin(ACTA1)and brain natriuretic peptide(BNP),as well as ferroptosis related proteins:acyl-CoA synthetase long chain family member 4(ACSL4),solute carrier family 7 member 11(SLC7A11)and glutathione peroxidase 4(GPX4)in mice cardiac tissue were detected by Western blot,the iron ion content in mice cardiac tissue was detected by iron ion kit,to evaluate the correlation between CRTC2 and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and ferroptosis.H9c2 cells were induced by ISO to construct an in vitro model of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy,the protein expressions of CRTC2,ACTA1,BNP,ACSL4,SLC7A11 and GPX4 were detected after intervention with fer-roptosis inhibitor ferrostatin-1(Fer-1).H9c2 cells with CRTC2 overexpression induced by ISO were used to construct an in vitro model of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy,the related indicators of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and ferroptosis were detec-ted to explore the mechanism of CRTC2 in cardiomyocyte hypertrophy.Results Compared with the control group,the expression of CRTC2 protein in the cardiac tissue of ISO induced cardiomyocyte hypertrophy mice was increased(P＜0.05).Compared with wild-type mice,CRTC2-/-mice showed worsened cardiac function,manifested as increased left ventricular end-diastolic diameter(LVEDD),left ventricular end-systolic diameter(LVESD),left ventricular posterior wall thickness(LVPWT),heart weight/tibia length(HW/TL)and heart weight/body weight(HW/BW),decreased short axis shortening(FS)and ejection fraction(EF),increased collagen fiber content in cardiac tissue,upregulated ex-pression of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy-related proteins ACTA1 and BNP,increased mRNA and protein expression of ferrop-tosis-related protein ACSL4,decreased mRNA and protein expression of SLC7A11 and GPX4,and elevated iron ion content in cardiac tissue(P＜0.05 or P＜0.01).In vitro experiments showed that compared with ISO group,the ISO+Fer-1 group had no significant change in CRTC2 protein expression(P＞0.05),the expression of ACTA1 and BNP protein decreased,the surface area of cardiomyocyte reduced,the expression of ACSL4 protein decreased,and the expression of SLC7A11 and GPX4 proteins increased(P＜0.05 or P＜0.01).Compared with the ISO group,the LV-CRTC2+ISO group showed a decrease in surface area of cardiomyocytes(P＜0.01),a decrease in ACTA1,BNP and ACSL4 protein ex-pression,an increase in SLC7A11 and GPX4 protein expression,and a decrease in ROS and iron ion content(P＜0.05 or P＜0.01).Conclusion CRTC2 alleviates cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and protect cardiac function by suppressing fer-roptosis in cardiomyocytes.