1.Application of optimized combination prediction model in the prediction of hand, foot and mouth disease
Weijie TIAN ; Qian GAO ; Kun YANG ; Zhirong ZHAO ; Jian CHEN
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine 2026;37(1):58-62
Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.
2.Establishment of a new predictive model for esophagogastric variceal rebleeding in liver cirrhosis based on clinical features
Wen GUO ; Xuyulin YANG ; Run GAO ; Yaxin CHEN ; Kun YIN ; Qian LI ; Manli CUI ; Mingxin ZHANG
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(1):101-110
ObjectiveTo establish a new noninvasive, simple, and convenient clinical predictive model by identifying independent predictive factors for rebleeding after endoscopic therapy in cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB), and to provide a basis for individualized risk assessment and development of clinical intervention strategies. MethodsCirrhotic patients with EGVB who were diagnosed and treated in The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Medical University from September 2018 to October 2023 were enrolled as subjects, and according to whether the patient experienced rebleeding within 1 year after endoscopic therapy, they were divided into rebleeding group with 93 patients and non-rebleeding group with 84 patients. Clinical data were collected and analyzed. The independent samples t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups, and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups; the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A Logistic model was established based on the results of the univariate and multivariate analyses, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. R software was used to visualize the model by plotting a nomogram, and the Bootstrap method was used for internal validation of the model. ResultsThe multivariate analysis showed that red blood cell count (RBC), cholinesterase (ChE), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), albumin (Alb), thrombin time (TT), portal vein trunk diameter, sequential therapy, and primary prevention were independent predictive factors for rebleeding. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis, a logistic model was established as logit(P)=-0.805-1.978×(RBC)+0.001×(ChE)-0.020×(ALP)-0.314×(Alb)+0.567×(TT)+0.428×(portal vein trunk diameter)-2.303×[sequential therapy (yes=1, no=0)]-2.368×[primary prevention (yes=1, no=0)]. The logistic model (AUC=0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.893—0.964, P<0.001) had a better performance in predicting rebleeding than MELD score (AUC=0.603, 95%CI: 0.520—0.687, P=0.003), Child-Pugh class (AUC=0.650, 95%CI: 0.578—0.722, P=0.001), and FIB-4 index (AUC=0.587, 95%CI: 0.503—0.671, P=0.045). The model had an optimal cut-off value of 0.607, a sensitivity of 0.817, and a specificity of 0.817. Internal validation confirmed that the model had good predictive performance and accuracy. ConclusionSequential therapy, implementation of primary prevention, an increase in RBC, and an increase in Alb are protective factors against rebleeding, while prolonged TT and widened main portal vein diameter are risk factors. The logistic model based on these independent predictive factors can predict rebleeding and thus holds promise for clinical application.
3.China - Africa cooperation for tropical diseases control: current status and future priorities
Shenning LU ; Kun YANG ; Yingjun QIAN ; Duoquan WANG ; Shan LÜ ; Xiaonong ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control 2026;38(1):1-7
Tropical diseases, the transmission of which is affected by multiple natural and social factors, pose a great challenge to global public health, notably in African countries. During the past several decades, China and African countries have continuously collaborated for the control of neglected tropical diseases and malaria, which has become an important part of global South-to-South cooperation and global health governance. This article reviews the history of China-Africa cooperation for tropical diseases control, summarizes the experiences and achievements over the past decade, analyzes the current challenges in the coopera tion, and proposes future recommendations. The China-Africa cooperation has achieved significant progress in the control of tropical diseases, such as malaria, schistosomiasis, and filariasis, and established a China-Africa cooperation network for tropical diseases control. Through the "Three-Step" strategy of China-Africa cooperation, the effectiveness of China's integrated control strategies has been validated in Africa, and the application of China's tropical disease control technologies has been promoted in African disease-epidemic countries. Currently, China-Africa collaboration, however, still experiences multiple realistic challenges, such as insufficient resources, difficulty in technology transfer, and weak primary healthcare systems. In the future, both sides are recommended to further strengthen policy coordination, deepen technological cooperation, innovate cooperation models, aiming to continuously promote the high-quality development of China-Africa cooperation for tropical diseases control.
4.Research progress on cardiovascular protective mechanism of resveratrol.
Qian WU ; Hui-Min LI ; Chun-Kun YANG ; Ying-Tian YANG ; Shi-Han WANG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(12):3244-3251
Resveratrol(Res) is a kind of polyphenolic compound, possessing multiple biological activities such as antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, cardioprotective, and anticancer effects. In recent years, the cardiovascular protective mechanism of Res has become a research hotspot. Studies have shown that Res has a protective effect on the cardiovascular system through various pathways, such as inhibiting oxidative stress, regulating ferroptosis of cells, improving ischemia-reperfusion(I/R) injury, regulating lipid metabolism, suppressing inflammatory responses, and enhancing endothelial function. It can also alleviate cardiotoxicity caused by drugs and chemicals. In terms of oxidative stress, Res reduces the level of intracellular reactive oxygen species(ROS) by enhancing the expression of proteins such as silent information regulator 1(SIRT1) and regulating mitochondrial function, thereby alleviating myocardial cell damage. Regarding ferroptosis, Res inhibits the occurrence of ferroptosis by regulating the expression of proteins related to iron metabolism. Res can also improve I/R injury through mechanisms such as activating autophagy and the mitochondrial quality control network. In regard to improving endothelial function, Res protects the function of endothelial cells by regulating multiple signaling pathways, such as downregulating the PREP1-mediated pathway. Res can also regulate lipid metabolism and inhibit the progression of atherosclerosis. In terms of inflammatory responses, Res exerts anti-inflammatory effects through mechanisms such as inhibiting the nuclear factor-kappa B(NF-κB) signaling pathway. In addition, Res has an improving effect on cardiotoxicity caused by different drugs or environmental factors. However, the clinical application of Res still faces limitations such as poor pharmacokinetic properties. In the future, in-depth exploration is needed at multiple levels from basic research to clinical application to clarify the dose-response relationship and standardize the standards of medication regimens with the expectation of providing more effective strategies for the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.
Humans
;
Resveratrol/pharmacology*
;
Animals
;
Cardiotonic Agents/pharmacology*
;
Oxidative Stress/drug effects*
;
Cardiovascular Diseases/genetics*
;
Cardiovascular System/metabolism*
;
Signal Transduction/drug effects*
5.Innovation and application of traditional Chinese medicine dispensing promoted through integration of whole-process data elements.
Huan-Fei YANG ; Si-Yu LI ; Chen-Qian YU ; Jian-Kun WU ; Fang LIU ; Li-Bin JIANG ; Chun-Jin LI ; Xiang-Fei SU ; Wei-Guo BAI ; Hua-Qiang ZHAI ; Shi-Yuan JIN ; Yong-Yan WANG
China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica 2025;50(11):3189-3196
As a new type of production factor that can empower the development of new quality productivity, the data element is an important engine to promote the high quality development of the industry. Traditional Chinese medicine(TCM) dispensing is the most basic work of TCM clinical pharmacy, and its quality directly affects the clinical efficacy of TCM. The integration of data elements and TCM dispensing can stimulate the innovation and vitality of the TCM dispensing industry and promote the high-quality and sustainable development of the industry. A large-scale, detailed, and systematic study on TCM dispensing was conducted. The innovative practice path of data fusion construction in the whole process of TCM dispensing was investigated by integrating the digital resources "nine full activities" of TCM dispensing, creating the digital dictionary of "TCM clinical information data elements", and exploring innovative applications of TCM dispensing driven by data and technology, so as to promote the standardized, digital, and intelligent development of TCM dispensing in medical health services. The research content of this project was successfully selected as the second batch of "Data element×" typical cases of National Data Administration in 2024, which is the only selected case in the field of TCM.
Medicine, Chinese Traditional/methods*
;
Drugs, Chinese Herbal
;
Humans
6.Real-world efficacy and safety of azvudine in hospitalized older patients with COVID-19 during the omicron wave in China: A retrospective cohort study.
Yuanchao ZHU ; Fei ZHAO ; Yubing ZHU ; Xingang LI ; Deshi DONG ; Bolin ZHU ; Jianchun LI ; Xin HU ; Zinan ZHAO ; Wenfeng XU ; Yang JV ; Dandan WANG ; Yingming ZHENG ; Yiwen DONG ; Lu LI ; Shilei YANG ; Zhiyuan TENG ; Ling LU ; Jingwei ZHU ; Linzhe DU ; Yunxin LIU ; Lechuan JIA ; Qiujv ZHANG ; Hui MA ; Ana ZHAO ; Hongliu JIANG ; Xin XU ; Jinli WANG ; Xuping QIAN ; Wei ZHANG ; Tingting ZHENG ; Chunxia YANG ; Xuguang CHEN ; Kun LIU ; Huanhuan JIANG ; Dongxiang QU ; Jia SONG ; Hua CHENG ; Wenfang SUN ; Hanqiu ZHAN ; Xiao LI ; Yafeng WANG ; Aixia WANG ; Li LIU ; Lihua YANG ; Nan ZHANG ; Shumin CHEN ; Jingjing MA ; Wei LIU ; Xiaoxiang DU ; Meiqin ZHENG ; Liyan WAN ; Guangqing DU ; Hangmei LIU ; Pengfei JIN
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2025;15(1):123-132
Debates persist regarding the efficacy and safety of azvudine, particularly its real-world outcomes. This study involved patients aged ≥60 years who were admitted to 25 hospitals in mainland China with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between December 1, 2022, and February 28, 2023. Efficacy outcomes were all-cause mortality during hospitalization, the proportion of patients discharged with recovery, time to nucleic acid-negative conversion (T NANC), time to symptom improvement (T SI), and time of hospital stay (T HS). Safety was also assessed. Among the 5884 participants identified, 1999 received azvudine, and 1999 matched controls were included after exclusion and propensity score matching. Azvudine recipients exhibited lower all-cause mortality compared with controls in the overall population (13.3% vs. 17.1%, RR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.67-0.90; P = 0.001) and in the severe subgroup (25.7% vs. 33.7%; RR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.66-0.88; P < 0.001). A higher proportion of patients discharged with recovery, and a shorter T NANC were associated with azvudine recipients, especially in the severe subgroup. The incidence of adverse events in azvudine recipients was comparable to that in the control group (2.3% vs. 1.7%, P = 0.170). In conclusion, azvudine showed efficacy and safety in older patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the SARS-CoV-2 omicron wave in China.
7.A thermo-sensitive hydrogel targeting macrophage reprogramming for sustained osteoarthritis pain relief.
Yue LIU ; Kai ZHOU ; Xinlong HE ; Kun SHI ; Danrong HU ; Chenli YANG ; Jinrong PENG ; Yuqi HE ; Guoyan ZHAO ; Yi KANG ; Yujun ZHANG ; Yue'e DAI ; Min ZENG ; Feier XIAN ; Wensheng ZHANG ; Zhiyong QIAN
Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2025;15(11):6034-6051
Osteoarthritis (OA) causes chronic pain that significantly impairs quality of life, with current treatments often proving insufficient and accompanied by adverse effects. Recent research has identified the dorsal root ganglion (DRG) and its resident macrophages as crucial mediators of chronic OA pain through neuroinflammation driven by macrophage polarization. We present a novel injectable thermo-sensitive hydrogel system, KAF@PLEL, designed to deliver an anti-inflammatory peptide (KAF) specifically to the DRG. This biodegradable hydrogel enables sustained KAF release, promoting the reprogramming of DRG macrophages from pro-inflammatory to anti-inflammatory phenotypes. Through comprehensive in vitro and in vivo studies, we evaluated the hydrogel's biocompatibility, effects on macrophage polarization, and therapeutic efficacy in chronic OA pain management. The system demonstrated significant capabilities in preserving macrophage mitochondrial function, suppressing neuroinflammation, alleviating chronic OA pain, reducing cartilage degradation, and improving motor function in OA rat models. The sustained-release properties of KAF@PLEL enabled prolonged therapeutic effects while minimizing systemic exposure and side effects. These findings suggest that KAF@PLEL represents a promising therapeutic approach for improving outcomes in OA patients through targeted, sustained treatment.
8.Repair effects of tauroursodeoxycholic acid in combination use with bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells transplantation on a rat model of spinal cord injury
Ya-qian WEN ; Chao-lun LIANG ; Kun-rui ZHENG ; Dian-weng XIE ; Hai-mei YANG ; Meng-di ZOU ; Da GUO ; Xing LI
Chinese Traditional Patent Medicine 2025;47(1):66-72
AIM To investigate the repair effects of tauroursodeoxycholic acid(TUDCA)combined with bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells(BMSCs)transplantation on spinal cord injury(SCI)in rats.METHODS The rats were randomly divided into the sham operation group,the model group,the TUDCA group,the BMSCs transplantation group and the combination therapy of TUDCA and BMSCs transplantation group,with the SCI rat model established by Allen's method.The next day after modeling,the rats of TUDCA and combination therapy groups were given 200 mg/kg TUDCA by gavage.On the 3rd day after modeling,rats in BMSCs transplantation group and combination therapy group were injected with 1 mL tuned bone marrow BMSCs(the 3rd generation,1× 106/mL)via tail vein.Rats in the sham operation group and the model group were given gastric perfusion of normal saline and injection of 1 mL PBS through tail vein.On the 3rd,7th and 14th day after modeling,the rats had their motor function of hind limbs observed and BBB score determined.After the corresponding drug administration,the rats had their movement track of hind limbs recorded by footprint experiment;their the protein expressions of IL-6,IL-10,Arg-1,PI3K and Akt in spinal cord tissue detected by Western blot;their pathological changes of spinal cord tissue observed by HE staining and Nissl staining;and their expressions of MAP2,GAP43 and GFAP detected by immunofluorescence staining.RESULTS Compared with the model group,the groups intervened with TUDCA,or BMSCs transplantation,or combination therapy shared improved hind limb function and spinal cord histomorphology(P<0.05);increased fluorescence intensity of MAP2 and GAP43,and protein expressions of IL-10,Arg-1,p-PI3K and p-Akt(P<0.05);decreased fluorescence intensity of GFAP and IL-6 protein expressions(P<0.05);among which the combination therapy group took the lead(P<0.05).CONCLUSION The combination therapy of TUDCA and BMSCs transplantation may restore the function of the rat model of SCI by reducing inflammatory reaction,alleviating secondary injury,and promoting axon and myelin regeneration via PI3K/Akt signaling pathway.
9.Research progress on the role of parathyroid hormone and parathyroid hormone-related peptide in regulating tooth eruption
LUO Qian ; HU Yushang ; YANG Kun ; GE Song ; ZHONG Wenyi
Journal of Prevention and Treatment for Stomatological Diseases 2025;33(7):604-611
The emergence of teeth is a complex physiological process characterized by the formation of the tooth crown, its movement towards the occlusal plane, and subsequent penetration through the alveolar bone and oral mucosa to achieve functional positioning for contact with opposing teeth. Parathyroid hormone (PTH) and parathyroid hormone-related peptide (PTHrP) are critical regulators of calcium and phosphorus metabolism in the body, playing significant roles in tooth emergence. Their regulatory functions exhibit intricate temporal and spatial dynamics, with underlying mechanisms that remain incompletely understood. In recent years, an increasing number of researchers both domestically and internationally have investigated the role and mechanisms of PTH/PTHrP in tooth emergence, primarily focusing on aspects such as dental sac formation, basal alveolar bone development, coronal alveolar bone resorption, root formation, and periodontal ligament development. Literature reviews indicate that PTH and PTHrP regulate bone metabolism, coordinate various signaling pathways including OPG/RANK/RANKL, cAMP/PKA, and Wnt/β-catenin, and are allosterically modulated by Ca2+ and ATP. These processes contribute to the development of dental sacs, which transmit signals to recruit osteoclasts and promote the resorption of crown alveolar bone, thereby forming an eruption pathway. Additionally, PTH/PTHrP plays a role in the formation of basal alveolar bone, root development, and the periodontal ligament, generating the force necessary for tooth eruption. Through precise spatiotemporal regulation and coordinated efforts, alveolar bone remodeling is achieved, facilitating the intricate process of tooth eruption. Through stringent temporal regulation and multi-faceted cooperation, remodeling of the alveolar bone occurs to complete this intricate developmental process of tooth emergence. Future research should further elucidate the mechanisms underlying PTH/PTHrP actions while also considering optimal dosage regimens regarding timing and frequency for therapeutic applications.
10.CRTC2 attenuates cardiomyocyte hypertrophy by inhibiting cardiomyocyte ferroptosis
Zhaoyue WANG ; Hongyu ZHENG ; Yanxia WANG ; Yuanqin ZHAO ; Wei DENG ; Kun ZHOU ; Qian XU ; Huiting LIU ; Shao OUYANG ; Miao JIANG ; Zhongzhou YANG ; Zhisheng JIANG
Chinese Journal of Arteriosclerosis 2025;33(10):849-858
Aim To investigate the role and regulatory mechanism of CREB regulated transcription coactivator 2(CRTC2)in cardiomyocyte hypertrophy.Methods A pathological cardiomyocyte hypertrophy model was established in C57BL/6 mice by intraperitoneal injection of isoproterenol(ISO),the expression of CRTC2 in cardiac tissue was detec-ted by Western blot.The CRTC2 knockout mice model was constructed,the cardiac function of mice was detected by small animal echocardiography,the collagen fiber content in mice cardiac tissue was detected by Masson staining,the car-diomyocyte hypertrophy related proteins:skeletal muscle α1-actin(ACTA1)and brain natriuretic peptide(BNP),as well as ferroptosis related proteins:acyl-CoA synthetase long chain family member 4(ACSL4),solute carrier family 7 member 11(SLC7A11)and glutathione peroxidase 4(GPX4)in mice cardiac tissue were detected by Western blot,the iron ion content in mice cardiac tissue was detected by iron ion kit,to evaluate the correlation between CRTC2 and cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and ferroptosis.H9c2 cells were induced by ISO to construct an in vitro model of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy,the protein expressions of CRTC2,ACTA1,BNP,ACSL4,SLC7A11 and GPX4 were detected after intervention with fer-roptosis inhibitor ferrostatin-1(Fer-1).H9c2 cells with CRTC2 overexpression induced by ISO were used to construct an in vitro model of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy,the related indicators of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and ferroptosis were detec-ted to explore the mechanism of CRTC2 in cardiomyocyte hypertrophy.Results Compared with the control group,the expression of CRTC2 protein in the cardiac tissue of ISO induced cardiomyocyte hypertrophy mice was increased(P<0.05).Compared with wild-type mice,CRTC2-/-mice showed worsened cardiac function,manifested as increased left ventricular end-diastolic diameter(LVEDD),left ventricular end-systolic diameter(LVESD),left ventricular posterior wall thickness(LVPWT),heart weight/tibia length(HW/TL)and heart weight/body weight(HW/BW),decreased short axis shortening(FS)and ejection fraction(EF),increased collagen fiber content in cardiac tissue,upregulated ex-pression of cardiomyocyte hypertrophy-related proteins ACTA1 and BNP,increased mRNA and protein expression of ferrop-tosis-related protein ACSL4,decreased mRNA and protein expression of SLC7A11 and GPX4,and elevated iron ion content in cardiac tissue(P<0.05 or P<0.01).In vitro experiments showed that compared with ISO group,the ISO+Fer-1 group had no significant change in CRTC2 protein expression(P>0.05),the expression of ACTA1 and BNP protein decreased,the surface area of cardiomyocyte reduced,the expression of ACSL4 protein decreased,and the expression of SLC7A11 and GPX4 proteins increased(P<0.05 or P<0.01).Compared with the ISO group,the LV-CRTC2+ISO group showed a decrease in surface area of cardiomyocytes(P<0.01),a decrease in ACTA1,BNP and ACSL4 protein ex-pression,an increase in SLC7A11 and GPX4 protein expression,and a decrease in ROS and iron ion content(P<0.05 or P<0.01).Conclusion CRTC2 alleviates cardiomyocyte hypertrophy and protect cardiac function by suppressing fer-roptosis in cardiomyocytes.


Result Analysis
Print
Save
E-mail