Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.

ObjectiveTo investigate the gene expression sequence and molecular mechanisms in the local microenvironment during the subacute to chronic phases (1-28 days) in mouse models of spinal cord compression injury and hemisection spinal cord injury, thereby revealing the molecular characteristics of spinal cord repair and providing a theoretical basis for selecting therapeutic targets for spinal cord injury. MethodsThirty-six 8-9-week-old SPF-grade ICR mice were randomly divided into three groups (n=12 per group): sham-operated control (CTR) group, hemisection spinal cord injury (HSCI) group, and spinal cord compression injury (SCC) group. Mice in the CTR group underwent the same surgical preparation and anesthesia, followed by a dorsal midline incision at the T₉-T₁₀ segment. After layer-by-layer dissection and removal of the corresponding lamina, the spinal cord dura mater was fully exposed and kept intact. The cord was exposed to air for 10 minutes (matching the duration of the compression injury group), during which any instrument contact with the cord was avoided. The incision was then irrigated and sutured. The HSCI group underwent a 70% transection of the T₉ spinal cord segment using micro-instruments to establish a hemisection spinal cord injury model. The SCC group underwent sustained compression of the T₁₀ spinal cord segment for 10 minutes using a self-made compressor (a 30 g solid small iron bar) to establish a spinal cord compression injury model. Motor function recovery was assessed using the modified Basso-Beattie-Bresnahan (BBB) score on postoperative days 1, 3, 7, 14, 21, and 28. On days 7 and 14 post-operation, mice were anesthetized, and the injured spinal cord segments were harvested. The evolution of specific molecular networks in the spinal cord injury mouse models was analyzed via RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) and enrichment analysis, and the expression of key genes was verified using real time fluorogenic quantitative PCR. ResultsBBB scores indicated that motor function recovery in the SCC group was significantly better than that in the HSCI group, with BBB scores showing a continuously increasing trend and remaining higher than those in the HSCI group over the 4-week period (P <0.001). Gene ontology （GO)and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes （KEGG） enrichment analyses based on RNA-Seq differentially expressed genes revealed that, compared to the CTR group, genes related to the extracellular matrix were significantly up-regulated (P<0.05), while genes related to axon guidance were significantly down-regulated (P <0.05) in the SCC group on day 7 post-operation. On day 21, genes involved in immune regulation and the retinol signaling pathway were significantly activated in the SCC group (P<0.05). In contrast, in the HSCI group, genes associated with inflammation and immune response were significantly up-regulated (P<0.001), while genes related to neuronal differentiation and synapse formation were significantly down-regulated (P <0.001) on day 7. On day 21, genes related to cell-matrix junctions and N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors were significantly up-regulated (P<0.001) in the HSCI group. Furthermore, compared to the SCC group, the HSCI group exhibited different pathway enrichment characteristics in GO and KEGG analyses on days 7 and 21 post-injury. On day 7, genes involved in the NOD-like receptor signaling pathway and the complement and coagulation cascades were significantly up-regulated in the HSCI group (P<0.001). On day 21, genes related to the extracellular matrix-receptor interaction and the neuroactive ligand-receptor interaction pathways were significantly activated (P<0.001). Finally, real time fluorogenic quantitative PCR validation results were highly consistent with the RNA-Seq results, further confirming the differential expression trends of key genes between the SCC and HSCI groups. ConclusionThe SCC and HSCI injury models may drive distinct repair pathways: the preservation of some axons in the SCC model predisposes it toward tissue repair, whereas the HSCI model requires the coordination of more complex molecular networks to achieve a new equilibrium. This finding further deepens the understanding of the heterogeneous regulatory mechanisms underlying spinal cord injury.

Objective: To investigate the emotional and behavioral problems among preschool children and the correlations with maternal parenting competence and family rearing environment, so as to provide a scientific basis and practical guidance for the physical and mental health development of preschool children. Methods: In June 2025, 660 preschool children aged 3-6 years old were selected from 10 kindergartens in Hefei, Anqing, and Tongling in Anhui Province by using a stratified cluster random sampling method. A questionnaire survey was conducted among all parents of preschool children using the Parent version of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, the Child Family Rearing Environment Scale, and the Chinese version of the Parenting Sense of Competence Scale. Pearson correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were used to analyze the related factors of emotional and behavioral problems among preschool children. SPSS macro program Process 4.1 and Bootstrap method were used to test the mediating effect of family parenting environment between emotional and behavioral problems among preschool children and maternal parenting competence. Results: The detection rate of emotional and behavioral problems among preschool children was 20.15%. The total scores of family rearing environment and maternal parenting competence were negatively correlated with emotional and behavioral problems among preschool children ( r =-0.45,-0.79), and the total score of family rearing environment was positively correlated with the total score of maternal parenting competence ( r =0.43) (all P <0.01). Multiple linear regression showed that, after controlling whether being only child, parents educational level, registered residence location and other variables, family rearing environment, self efficacy and satisfaction were all negative predictors of emotional and behavioral problems among preschool children ( B =-0.07, -0.42, -0.42, all P <0.01). The mediation effect results showed that maternal parenting competence could positively predict the family rearing environment ( B =0.75), while maternal parenting competence and family rearing environment could both negatively predict emotional and behavioral problems among preschool children ( B =-0.49, -0.06 ) (all P <0.05). The Bootstrap sampling method test results showed that the effect value of the indirect effect of maternal parenting competence on emotional and behavioral problems through the family rearing environment was -0.04, and the effect proportion was 8.21 %. Conclusion Preschool children with a better family rearing environment and stronger maternal parenting competence are less likely to have emotional and behavioral problems, among which the family rearing environment has a mediating effect.

ObjectiveTo investigate the protective effect of α-ketoglutarate （α-KG） on hepatic lipid deposition in offspring caused by arsenic exposure during pregnancy. Methods8-week-old institute of cancer research （ICR） mice were mated in a ratio of 2∶1 between females and males， and the detection of vaginal plugs confirmed pregnant. A total of 32 pregnant mice were randomly divided into four groups： control group， arsenic group， α-KG group， arsenic+α-KG group. On gestational day 0-16 （GD0-GD16）， the arsenic and arsenic+α-KG groups were exposed to sodium arsenite （NaAsO₂ ，15 mg/L） in drinking water everyday， and the α-KG and arsenic+α-KG groups were gavaged with α-KG （2 g/kg） everyday. On GD16， pregnant mice were euthanized to collect fetal liver， and fetal body weight and crown-rump length were measured. Gene expression differences between the control group and the arsenic group were analyzed by transcriptome. The total triglycerides （TGs） and subtypes in fetal liver were detected by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry （LC-MS/MS）. Oil red O staining was used to observe the histopathological changes in the liver. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction （qPCR） was used to detect the expression level of genes related to lipid synthesis， transport， and degradation， and phosphatidylinositol 3' -kinase/ protein kinase B （PI3K/AKT） in the liver of fetus. ResultsTranscriptomics analysis showed that 2 144 genes were downregulated and 1 675 genes were upregulated in the arsenic exposed fetal liver； body weight and crown-rump length were reduced （P_TuKey<0.05）； the level of hepatic TGs was elevated in arsenic group （P_TuKey<0.05）； oil-red O staining showed a significant increase in lipid droplets in arsenic group （P_TuKey<0.01）； the expression of lipid synthesis-related genes were significantly upregulated （P_TuKey<0.05）； the expression of β-oxidation-related genes and lipid degradation-related genes were downregulated （P_TuKey<0.05）； the expression of PI3K， AKT decreased（P_TuKey<0.05）. Compared with the arsenic group， the body weight and crown-rump length of fetus increased in the arsenic+α-KG group （P_TuKey<0.05）； the level of hepatic TGs decreased in the arsenic+α-KG group （P_TuKey<0.05）； oil red O staining showed lipid droplets significantly decreased （P_TuKey<0.01）； the expression of lipid synthesis-related genes were downregulated （P_TuKey<0.05）， the expression of β-oxidation-related genes and lipid degradation-related genes were upregulated （P_TuKey<0.05）； the expression levels of PI3K and AKT increased （P_TuKey<0.05）. Conclusionα-KG alleviated hepatic lipid deposition in offspring exposed to arsenic during pregnancy through activating PI3K/AKT signaling pathway.

Objective To explore the non-invasive diagnostic criteria of magnetocardiography (MCG) for coronary microvascular dysfunction (CMVD), and its value in dynamically assessing drug treatment for CMVD. Methods Patients who presented with chest tightness or chest pain at Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University from September 2024 to March 2025 were consecutively enrolled, and all of whom had non-obstructive coronary arteries on angiography. Using the coronary angiography-derived index of microcirculatory resistance (caIMR) as the gold standard, patients were divided into a normal microcirculation group (caIMR≤40 U) and a CMVD group (caIMR＞40 U). MCG testing was performed using a domestic device (MD-U041001, Mind Medical). Patients in the CMVD group received adenosine treatment and underwent repeat MCG after medication. Differences in MCG parameters between the two groups were analyzed, and a diagnostic model was established. The value of the diagnostic model was analyzed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results A total of 311 patients were included, with 135 in the normal microcirculation group and 176 in the CMVD group. The CMVD group had a significantly higher proportion of males (61.9% vs 47.4%, P＝0.012), and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels ([1.16±0.31] mmol/L vs [1.24±0.29] mmol/L, P＝0.029) than the normal group. Eleven MCG parameters showed significant differences between the two groups (P＜0.05), among which increased values of mfm_QR_epav, mfm_RS_epmse, space_zeroRTrot, as well as decreased value of mfm_QR_v1 were independent predictors of CMVD. The diagnostic model based on these 11 MCG parameters yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.688 (95%CI 0.629-0.747). The integrated diagnostic model combining clinical risk factors (male, smoking history, HDL-C) with MCG parameters had an AUC of 0.701 (95%CI 0.643-0.759). After adenosine treatment, patients in the CMVD group showed significant decreases in mfm_QR_epav (P＝0.010), mfm_RS_sad (P＝0.013), and mfm_RS_epmse (P＝0.046). Conclusions The model based on MCG parameters demonstrates good diagnostic ability for CMVD; dynamic changes in MCG parameters following adenosine intervention may serve as potential objective indicators for evaluating microcirculatory treatment efficacy.

ObjectiveTo explore the effects of Yimei Baijiang formula （YMBJF） on colitis-associated colorectal cancer （CAC） and the nuclear factor kappaB （NF-κB） signaling pathway in mice. MethodsSixty male Balb/c mice of 4-6 weeks old were randomized into 6 groups： Normal， model， capecitabine （0.83 g·kg^-1）， and low-， medium-， and high-dose （4.63， 9.25， 18.50 g·kg^-1， respectively） YMBJF. The mouse model of CAC was established by combining azoxymethane （AOM， 10 mg·kg^-1） and dextran sulfate sodium （DSS， 2%）. At the 5^th week after the start of modeling， the capecitabine group and the YMBJF groups were respectively administrated with the corresponding doses of drugs by gavage once a day for a total of 6 weeks. The body weights and general conditions of mice were measured and observed， and the disease activity index （DAI） was scored. The tumors in the colorectal tissue were counted， and the colorectal length was measured. The histological features of the colorectal tissue in each group of mice were observed by hematoxylin-eosin （HE） staining. The levels of inflammatory cytokines including interleukin-6 （IL-6）， interleukin-1β （IL-1β）， and tumor necrosis factor-α （TNF-α） in the serum were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay （ELISA）. The expression and localization of proliferating cell nuclear antigen-67 （Ki67）， proliferating cell nuclear antigen （PCNA）， and phosphorylated nuclear transcription factor-κB p65 （p-NF-κB p65） proteins were observed by immunohistochemistry （IHC）. The apoptosis of tumor cells was observed by the TUNEL assay. The mRNA levels of IL-6，IL-1β， TNF-α， nuclear transcription factor-κB p65 （NF-κB p65）， NF-κB inhibitor alpha （IκBα）， B-cell lymphoma-2 （Bcl-2）， and Bcl-2-associated X protein （Bax） in the colorectal tissue were quantified by Real-time polymerase chain reaction（Real-time PCR）. The protein levels of NF-κB p65， phosphorylated （p）-NF-κB p65， IκBα， p-IκBα， Bcl-2， and Bax in the colorectal tissue were determined by Western blot. ResultsCompared with the model group， each YMBJF group showed decreases in DAI and tumor number （P0.01）， and the medium-dose and high-dose YMBJF groups showed increases in colorectal length （P0.05）. In addition， each YMBJF group showed alleviated colorectal mucosal pathological injury， declined levels of IL-6， IL-1β， and TNF-α in the serum （P0.05）， reduced expression of Ki67 and PCNA （P0.01）， and down-regulated expression of p-NF-κB p65 （P0.05）. The apoptosis in the medium-dose and high-dose YMBJF groups increased （P0.01）. Each YMBJF group and the capecitabine group showed down-regulated mRNA levels of IL-1β， TNF-α， IL-6， NF-κB p65， and Bcl-2 （P0.05） and up-regulated mRNA levels of IκBα and Bax （P0.05）. The mRNA level of IκBα was up-regulated， and that of Bcl-2 was down-regulated （P0.05） in the high-dose YMBJF group. The protein levels of p-IκBα and Bcl-2 were down-regulated （P0.05） in each YMBJF group. The protein levels of IκBα and Bax were up-regulated in the medium-dose and high-dose YMBJF groups （P0.01）， while those of NF-κB p65 and p-NF-κB p65 were down-regulated （P0.05）. ConclusionYMBJF can reduce the number of tumors， reduce the levels of inflammatory factors， promote tumor cell apoptosis， and inhibit tumor cell proliferation by regulating the direct effector molecules of the NF-κB signaling pathway in the mouse model of CRC.

ObjectiveTo explore the effects of Yimei Baijiang formula （YMBJF） on colitis-associated colorectal cancer （CAC） and the nuclear factor kappaB （NF-κB） signaling pathway in mice. MethodsSixty male Balb/c mice of 4-6 weeks old were randomized into 6 groups： Normal， model， capecitabine （0.83 g·kg^-1）， and low-， medium-， and high-dose （4.63， 9.25， 18.50 g·kg^-1， respectively） YMBJF. The mouse model of CAC was established by combining azoxymethane （AOM， 10 mg·kg^-1） and dextran sulfate sodium （DSS， 2%）. At the 5^th week after the start of modeling， the capecitabine group and the YMBJF groups were respectively administrated with the corresponding doses of drugs by gavage once a day for a total of 6 weeks. The body weights and general conditions of mice were measured and observed， and the disease activity index （DAI） was scored. The tumors in the colorectal tissue were counted， and the colorectal length was measured. The histological features of the colorectal tissue in each group of mice were observed by hematoxylin-eosin （HE） staining. The levels of inflammatory cytokines including interleukin-6 （IL-6）， interleukin-1β （IL-1β）， and tumor necrosis factor-α （TNF-α） in the serum were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay （ELISA）. The expression and localization of proliferating cell nuclear antigen-67 （Ki67）， proliferating cell nuclear antigen （PCNA）， and phosphorylated nuclear transcription factor-κB p65 （p-NF-κB p65） proteins were observed by immunohistochemistry （IHC）. The apoptosis of tumor cells was observed by the TUNEL assay. The mRNA levels of IL-6，IL-1β， TNF-α， nuclear transcription factor-κB p65 （NF-κB p65）， NF-κB inhibitor alpha （IκBα）， B-cell lymphoma-2 （Bcl-2）， and Bcl-2-associated X protein （Bax） in the colorectal tissue were quantified by Real-time polymerase chain reaction（Real-time PCR）. The protein levels of NF-κB p65， phosphorylated （p）-NF-κB p65， IκBα， p-IκBα， Bcl-2， and Bax in the colorectal tissue were determined by Western blot. ResultsCompared with the model group， each YMBJF group showed decreases in DAI and tumor number （P0.01）， and the medium-dose and high-dose YMBJF groups showed increases in colorectal length （P0.05）. In addition， each YMBJF group showed alleviated colorectal mucosal pathological injury， declined levels of IL-6， IL-1β， and TNF-α in the serum （P0.05）， reduced expression of Ki67 and PCNA （P0.01）， and down-regulated expression of p-NF-κB p65 （P0.05）. The apoptosis in the medium-dose and high-dose YMBJF groups increased （P0.01）. Each YMBJF group and the capecitabine group showed down-regulated mRNA levels of IL-1β， TNF-α， IL-6， NF-κB p65， and Bcl-2 （P0.05） and up-regulated mRNA levels of IκBα and Bax （P0.05）. The mRNA level of IκBα was up-regulated， and that of Bcl-2 was down-regulated （P0.05） in the high-dose YMBJF group. The protein levels of p-IκBα and Bcl-2 were down-regulated （P0.05） in each YMBJF group. The protein levels of IκBα and Bax were up-regulated in the medium-dose and high-dose YMBJF groups （P0.01）， while those of NF-κB p65 and p-NF-κB p65 were down-regulated （P0.05）. ConclusionYMBJF can reduce the number of tumors， reduce the levels of inflammatory factors， promote tumor cell apoptosis， and inhibit tumor cell proliferation by regulating the direct effector molecules of the NF-κB signaling pathway in the mouse model of CRC.

ObjectiveThis study aims to elucidate the potential mechanism of Zuojinwan in improving liver fibrosis through hepatic tissue metabolomics analysis. MethodsTwenty-four mice were randomly allocated into normal group， model group ， positive drug group （silymarin， 100 mg·kg^-1）， and Zuojinwan group （Zuojinwan solution， 2.5 g·kg^-1）， with per group six mice. Liver fibrosis model was induced via intraperitoneal injection of olive oil solution with 10% carbon tetrachloride （CCl₄） （0.5 μL·g^-1， three times weekly for 8 weeks） in all groups except the normal group. During the final 4 weeks， the silymarin group received silymarin （100 mg·kg^-1） by gavage thrice weekly， while the Zuojinwan group was administered Zuojinwan solution （2.5 g·kg^-1） under the same regimen. After the last administration， the levels of liver fibrosis indicators and liver injury markers in serum were detected. The pathological morphological changes of the liver tissues were observed. The levels of liver fibrosis markers α-smooth muscle actin （α-SMA） and Collagen Ⅰ（ColⅠ） were detected. Metabolomics was analyzed on mice's liver tissues. The mice's serum was collected for metabolomics analysis. ResultsCompared with the model group， Zuojinwan significantly improved indicators related to liver fibrosis and liver injury. Compared with the normal group， the model group showed significantly elevated levels of fibrosis markers such as laminin （LN）， hyaluronic acid （HA）， procollagen typeⅢ （PC-Ⅲ）， and type Ⅳ Collagen （Ⅳ-C）， while liver injury indicators such as alanine aminotransferase （ALT）， aspartate aminotransferase （AST）， alkaline phosphatase （ALP）， lactate dehydrogenase （LDH）， and total bilirubin （TBIL）， exhibited a marked upward trend （P<0.05）. Compared with the model group， the silymarin group showed a significant decrease in the aforementioned indicators （P<0.05）. Notably， compared with the model group， the Zuojinwan group exhibited a significant reduction in all these indicators （P<0.05）， with efficacy comparable to that of the silymarin group. Zuojinwan reduced mRNA and protein levels of α-SMA and ColⅠ in the liver tissue. Metabolomics results revealed that compared with the model group， Zuojiinwan significantly reduced levels of glucose metabolism-related metabolites such as D-fructose 1，6-bisphosphate （FBP）， nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate （NADPH）， sodium beta-D-fructose 6-phosphate （F6P）， dihydroxyacetone phosphate （DHAP）， fumaric acid， and D-glucose 6-phosphate （G6P） （P<0.05）. Serum enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay （ELISA） was used to detect glucose metabolism indicators and further validate the regulatory effect of Zuojinwan on glucose metabolism. ConclusionThese results suggest that Zuojinwan may improve liver fibrosis by regulating the dysregulated levels of glucose metabolism during the progression of liver fibrosis.

Childhood simple obesity has become a significant public health issue in China. Modern medicine primarily relies on lifestyle interventions and often suffers from poor long-term compliance， while pharmacological options are limited and associated with potential adverse effects. Traditional Chinese Medicine （TCM） has a long history in the prevention and management of this condition， demonstrating eight distinct advantages， including systematic theoretical foundation， diversified therapeutic approaches， definite therapeutic efficacy， high safety profile， good patient compliance， comprehensive intervention strategies， emphasis on prevention， and stepwise treatment protocols. Additionally， TCM is characterized by six distinctive features： the use of natural medicinal substances， non-invasive external therapies， integration of medicinal dietetics， simple exercise regimens， precise syndrome differentiation， and diverse dosage forms. By combining internal and external treatments， TCM facilitates individualized regimen adjustment and holistic regulation， demonstrating remarkable effects in improving obesity-related metabolic indicators， regulating constitutional imbalance， and promoting healthy behaviors. However， challenges remain， such as inconsistent operational standards， insufficient high-quality clinical evidence， and a gap between basic research and clinical application. Future efforts should focus on accelerating the standardization of TCM diagnosis and treatment， conducting multicenter randomized controlled trials， and fostering interdisciplinary integration， so as to enhance the scientific validity and international recognition of TCM in the prevention and treatment of childhood obesity.

ObjectiveTo establish a new noninvasive， simple， and convenient clinical predictive model by identifying independent predictive factors for rebleeding after endoscopic therapy in cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding （EGVB）， and to provide a basis for individualized risk assessment and development of clinical intervention strategies. MethodsCirrhotic patients with EGVB who were diagnosed and treated in The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Medical University from September 2018 to October 2023 were enrolled as subjects， and according to whether the patient experienced rebleeding within 1 year after endoscopic therapy， they were divided into rebleeding group with 93 patients and non-rebleeding group with 84 patients. Clinical data were collected and analyzed. The independent samples t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups， and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups； the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A Logistic model was established based on the results of the univariate and multivariate analyses， and the receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve and the area under the ROC curve （AUC） were used to assess the accuracy of the model. R software was used to visualize the model by plotting a nomogram， and the Bootstrap method was used for internal validation of the model. ResultsThe multivariate analysis showed that red blood cell count （RBC）， cholinesterase （ChE）， alkaline phosphatase （ALP）， albumin （Alb）， thrombin time （TT）， portal vein trunk diameter， sequential therapy， and primary prevention were independent predictive factors for rebleeding. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis， a logistic model was established as logit（P）=-0.805-1.978×（RBC）+0.001×（ChE）-0.020×（ALP）-0.314×（Alb）+0.567×（TT）+0.428×（portal vein trunk diameter）-2.303×［sequential therapy （yes=1， no=0）］-2.368×［primary prevention （yes=1， no=0）］. The logistic model （AUC=0.928， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 0.893—0.964， P<0.001） had a better performance in predicting rebleeding than MELD score （AUC=0.603， 95%CI： 0.520—0.687， P=0.003）， Child-Pugh class （AUC=0.650， 95%CI： 0.578—0.722， P=0.001）， and FIB-4 index （AUC=0.587， 95%CI： 0.503—0.671， P=0.045）. The model had an optimal cut-off value of 0.607， a sensitivity of 0.817， and a specificity of 0.817. Internal validation confirmed that the model had good predictive performance and accuracy. ConclusionSequential therapy， implementation of primary prevention， an increase in RBC， and an increase in Alb are protective factors against rebleeding， while prolonged TT and widened main portal vein diameter are risk factors. The logistic model based on these independent predictive factors can predict rebleeding and thus holds promise for clinical application.