Objective To explore scientific and accurate prediction methods for the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the post-pandemic era, and to address modeling challenges caused by abnormal fluctuations in case numbers from 2020 to 2023. Methods The seasonal index was used to pre-process the data. The traditional seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, singular spectrum analysis (SSA)-ARIMA model, ARIMA-Long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model were used to fit the incidence from 2013 to 2023, and the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2024 was predicted. The real data collected in 2024 were used as the test set to compare the prediction performance of the models. Results The fitting performance of the constructed models was as follows: the ARIMA model had MAE=107.50 and RMSE=144.53, the SSA-ARIMA model showed MAE=2.84 and RMSE=4.33, the ARIMA-LSTM model achieved MAE=99.46 and RMSE=131.59, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model had MAE=96.35 and RMSE=132.13. In terms of prediction performance, the ARIMA model resulted in MAE=151.64 and RMSE=146.70, the SSA-ARIMA model demonstrated MAE=41.22 and RMSE=57.01, the ARIMA-LSTM model yielded MAE=220.75 and RMSE=257.89, and the SSA-ARIMA-LSTM model recorded MAE=58.83 and RMSE=72.06. Conclusion The SSA-ARIMA model has the best fitting degree and the highest prediction accuracy, and is suitable for predicting the incidence trend of hand, foot and mouth disease.

Tropical diseases, the transmission of which is affected by multiple natural and social factors, pose a great challenge to global public health, notably in African countries. During the past several decades, China and African countries have continuously collaborated for the control of neglected tropical diseases and malaria, which has become an important part of global South-to-South cooperation and global health governance. This article reviews the history of China-Africa cooperation for tropical diseases control, summarizes the experiences and achievements over the past decade, analyzes the current challenges in the coopera tion, and proposes future recommendations. The China-Africa cooperation has achieved significant progress in the control of tropical diseases, such as malaria, schistosomiasis, and filariasis, and established a China-Africa cooperation network for tropical diseases control. Through the "Three-Step" strategy of China-Africa cooperation, the effectiveness of China's integrated control strategies has been validated in Africa, and the application of China's tropical disease control technologies has been promoted in African disease-epidemic countries. Currently, China-Africa collaboration, however, still experiences multiple realistic challenges, such as insufficient resources, difficulty in technology transfer, and weak primary healthcare systems. In the future, both sides are recommended to further strengthen policy coordination, deepen technological cooperation, innovate cooperation models, aiming to continuously promote the high-quality development of China-Africa cooperation for tropical diseases control.

ObjectiveTo establish a new noninvasive， simple， and convenient clinical predictive model by identifying independent predictive factors for rebleeding after endoscopic therapy in cirrhotic patients with esophagogastric variceal bleeding （EGVB）， and to provide a basis for individualized risk assessment and development of clinical intervention strategies. MethodsCirrhotic patients with EGVB who were diagnosed and treated in The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Medical University from September 2018 to October 2023 were enrolled as subjects， and according to whether the patient experienced rebleeding within 1 year after endoscopic therapy， they were divided into rebleeding group with 93 patients and non-rebleeding group with 84 patients. Clinical data were collected and analyzed. The independent samples t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between two groups， and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups； the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A Logistic model was established based on the results of the univariate and multivariate analyses， and the receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve and the area under the ROC curve （AUC） were used to assess the accuracy of the model. R software was used to visualize the model by plotting a nomogram， and the Bootstrap method was used for internal validation of the model. ResultsThe multivariate analysis showed that red blood cell count （RBC）， cholinesterase （ChE）， alkaline phosphatase （ALP）， albumin （Alb）， thrombin time （TT）， portal vein trunk diameter， sequential therapy， and primary prevention were independent predictive factors for rebleeding. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis， a logistic model was established as logit（P）=-0.805-1.978×（RBC）+0.001×（ChE）-0.020×（ALP）-0.314×（Alb）+0.567×（TT）+0.428×（portal vein trunk diameter）-2.303×［sequential therapy （yes=1， no=0）］-2.368×［primary prevention （yes=1， no=0）］. The logistic model （AUC=0.928， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 0.893—0.964， P<0.001） had a better performance in predicting rebleeding than MELD score （AUC=0.603， 95%CI： 0.520—0.687， P=0.003）， Child-Pugh class （AUC=0.650， 95%CI： 0.578—0.722， P=0.001）， and FIB-4 index （AUC=0.587， 95%CI： 0.503—0.671， P=0.045）. The model had an optimal cut-off value of 0.607， a sensitivity of 0.817， and a specificity of 0.817. Internal validation confirmed that the model had good predictive performance and accuracy. ConclusionSequential therapy， implementation of primary prevention， an increase in RBC， and an increase in Alb are protective factors against rebleeding， while prolonged TT and widened main portal vein diameter are risk factors. The logistic model based on these independent predictive factors can predict rebleeding and thus holds promise for clinical application.

BACKGROUND:Nanogels can combine the properties of nanoparticles and hydrogels,which have multiple advantages and can play a great role in clinical translation.OJECTIVE:To summarize the self-and cross-linking properties of nanogels,the diagnostic and therapeutic integration strategies they played in a variety of imaging processes,in conjunction with their functional visualization and application properties.METHODS:By searching PubMed,Web of Science,CNKI,and Wanfang databases,English and Chinese search terms were"nanogel,nanohydrogel,imaging,magnetic resonance imaging,fluorescence imaging,ultrasound imaging,photoacoustic imaging,multimodal imaging,therapy,treatment."According to the inclusion criteria,78 articles were finally selected for review.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:The preparation process of nanogels is significantly affected by their multiple properties and cross-linking mechanisms.Optimization of these properties and mechanisms can help to improve their structural performance and accelerate the translation of their clinical applications.With the trend of integrated diagnosis and treatment,functional visualization of nanogels can effectively image tumors with the help of magnetic resonance imaging,fluorescence imaging,ultrasonography,photoacoustic imaging,and multimodal imaging,which can be of key value in the treatment strategies of various diseases.These findings not only pave the way for improving the preparation methods of nanogels,but also create a robust groundwork for hastening their clinical translation.

ObjectiveTo investigate the association of the traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） syndrome types of primary liver cancer （PLC） with clinical features and multimodal quantitative radiological features on computed tomography （CT） and magnetic resonance imaging （MRI）， and to provide a reference for the objectification of TCM syndrome differentiation and precise diagnosis and treatment. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 312 patients who were diagnosed with PLC in The First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan University of Chinese Medicine from March 2020 to June 2025， and according to the TCM syndrome type， they were divided into stagnation of liver Qi group with 40 patients， stagnation of liver Qi and spleen deficiency group with 109 patients， Qi stagnation and blood stasis group with 62 patients， dampness-heat toxin amassment group with 81 patients， and liver-kidney Yin deficiency group with 20 patients. Clinical features and multimodal quantitative radiological features were compared between the patients with different TCM syndrome types. A one-way analysis of variance was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between multiple groups， and the least significant difference t-test was used for further comparison between two groups； the Kruskal-Wallis H test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between multiple groups， and the Dunn’s multiple test was used for further comparison between two groups； the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups， and the Bonferroni method was used for further comparison between two groups. ResultsThere were significant differences between the patients with different TCM syndrome types in China liver cancer staging （CNLC）， Child-Pugh class， alanine aminotransferase， aspartate aminotransferase， albumin， direct bilirubin， total bilirubin， prothrombin time， neutrophil， and albumin-bilirubin score （all P<0.05）. In the stagnation of liver Qi group， the patients with Child-Pugh class A accounted for 75.00%； among the patients with CNLC stage I PLC， the patients with stagnation of liver Qi accounted for 60.00%， and those with Qi stagnation and blood stasis syndrome accounted for 59.68%， while among the patients with CNLC stage IV PLC， the distribution proportion of dampness-heat toxin amassment （27.16%） and liver-kidney Yin deficiency （30.00%） was significantly higher than that of stagnation of liver Qi （2.50%） （all P<0.05）. Radiological examination showed that there were significant differences between the patients with different TCM syndrome types in the number of tumors， ascites， venous tumor thrombus， maximum tumor diameter， intrahepatic metastasis， and lymph node metastasis in the hepatic hilar and retroperitoneal regions （all P<0.05）. Compared with the patients with stagnation of liver Qi， the patients with liver depression and spleen deficiency or liver-kidney Yin deficiency were more likely to develop intrahepatic metastasis； the patients with liver depression and spleen deficiency， dampness-heat toxin amassment， or liver-kidney Yin deficiency were more likely to develop lymph node metastasis in the hepatic hilar and retroperitoneal regions； the patients with liver-kidney Yin deficiency were more likely to experience multiple tumors； the patients with liver depression and spleen deficiency or dampness-heat toxin amassment were more likely to develop ascites （all P<0.05）. Compared with the patients with Qi stagnation and blood stasis syndrome， the patients with liver depression and spleen deficiency had a significantly longer maximum tumor diameter and a significantly higher proportion of patients with venous tumor thrombus （both P<0.05）. Furthermore， among the 184 patients with MRI diffusion-weighted imaging sequences， the patients with dampness-heat toxin amassment or Qi stagnation and blood stasis syndrome had significantly higher ADC values and relative ADC values than those with stagnation of liver Qi （all P<0.05）. ConclusionThere are significant differences in CT/MRI radiological features and clinical features between PLC patients with different TCM syndrome types， among whom the patients with liver depression and spleen deficiency， dampness-heat toxin amassment， and liver-kidney Yin deficiency tend to exhibit progressive radiological features， and those with dampness-heat toxin amassment or Qi stagnation and blood stasis syndrome tend to have higher ADC values. These findings provide an objective basis for TCM syndrome differentiation in PLC.

BACKGROUND:Nanogels can combine the properties of nanoparticles and hydrogels,which have multiple advantages and can play a great role in clinical translation.OJECTIVE:To summarize the self-and cross-linking properties of nanogels,the diagnostic and therapeutic integration strategies they played in a variety of imaging processes,in conjunction with their functional visualization and application properties.METHODS:By searching PubMed,Web of Science,CNKI,and Wanfang databases,English and Chinese search terms were"nanogel,nanohydrogel,imaging,magnetic resonance imaging,fluorescence imaging,ultrasound imaging,photoacoustic imaging,multimodal imaging,therapy,treatment."According to the inclusion criteria,78 articles were finally selected for review.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:The preparation process of nanogels is significantly affected by their multiple properties and cross-linking mechanisms.Optimization of these properties and mechanisms can help to improve their structural performance and accelerate the translation of their clinical applications.With the trend of integrated diagnosis and treatment,functional visualization of nanogels can effectively image tumors with the help of magnetic resonance imaging,fluorescence imaging,ultrasonography,photoacoustic imaging,and multimodal imaging,which can be of key value in the treatment strategies of various diseases.These findings not only pave the way for improving the preparation methods of nanogels,but also create a robust groundwork for hastening their clinical translation.

Objective To explore the diagnosis and treatment strategies for elderly patients with ground-glass opacity (GGO). Methods The imaging features and postoperative pathological findings of the elderly patients with pulmonary GGO receiving surgery in our hospital from 2017 to 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into an elderly patient group and a non-elderly patient group based on their age. Results Finally 575 patients were included in the study. There were 281 elderly patients, including 83 males and 198 females, with an average age of (67.0±5.3) years. There were 294 non-elderly patients, including 88 males and 206 females, with an average age of (49.1±7.3) years. Compared with the non-elderly patients, elderly GGO patients showed the following distinct clinical features: long observation time for lesions (P=0.001), high proportion of rough edges of GGO (P<0.001), significant pleural signs (P＜0.001) and bronchial signs (P＜0.001), and high proportion of type Ⅱ-Ⅳ GGO (P<0.001), lobectomy type (P=0.013), and invasive lesions reported in postoperative pathology (P<0.001). There was no statistical difference in the average hospital stay between the two groups (P=0.106). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that GGO diameter and GGO type were the main factors affecting the operation. Observation time, GGO diameter, GGO type and pleural signs were the main influencing factors for postoperative pathological infiltrative lesions. The cut-off value of GGO diameter in predicting infiltrating lesions was 10.5 mm in the elderly patients group. Conclusion The size and type of GGO are important factors in predicting invasive lesions and selecting surgical methods. Elderly patients with radiographic manifestations of type Ⅱ-Ⅳ GGO lesions with a diameter greater than 10.5 mm should be closely followed up.

BACKGROUND:The specific molecular mechanisms underlying common degenerative bone diseases,such as osteoarthritis,osteoporosis,and intervertebral disc degeneration,are currently unclear and may involve endoplasmic reticulum stress.At present,research on the systematic role of endoplasmic reticulum stress in the pathogenesis of these common skeletal diseases and related therapeutic progress is relatively limited. OBJECTIVE:To review the role of endoplasmic reticulum stress in common degenerative bone diseases,explore the molecular mechanisms of these diseases in depth,and provide new ideas and perspectives for prevention and treatment of these diseases. METHODS:Relevant literature from 2000 to 2024 was searched in CNKI,WanFang,VIP,PubMed and Web of Science databases using the search terms of"endoplasmic reticulum stress,bone disease,unfolded protein response,osteoarthritis,osteoporosis,intervertebral disc degeneration,autophagy,apoptosis,ferroptosis,pyroptosis"in Chinese and English.After removal of duplicates and older literature,a total of 115 articles met the inclusion criteria. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:Endoplasmic reticulum stress has a dual effect in regulating cell physiology.Mild endoplasmic reticulum stress promotes osteogenic differentiation and extracellular matrix synthesis;however,persistent excessive endoplasmic reticulum stress leads to cell death.Endoplasmic reticulum stress-induced cell autophagy and apoptosis are closely related to osteoarthritis,osteoporosis,and intervertebral disc degeneration.Aging,drug side effects,metabolic disorders,calcium imbalance,poor lifestyle habits and other reasons may lead to long-term activation of endoplasmic reticulum stress,which causes bone remodeling disorders,cartilage damage,nucleus pulposus cell death and other pathological manifestations,ultimately leading to the occurrence of osteoarthritis,osteoporosis and intervertebral disc degeneration.Intervention in the relevant mechanisms triggering endoplasmic reticulum stress is expected to play a role in the prevention and treatment of common degenerative bone diseases,such as osteoarthritis,osteoporosis and intervertebral disc degeneration.

This article introduced Xie Jingri's experience in treating gastroesophageal reflux disease(GERD)based on the"liver-spleen theory"academic idea.Professor Xie Jingri believes that the core pathogenesis of GERD lies in various stagnation,fire and heat in stomach,obstruction of the fu-organs qi and"no stagnation,no acidity".Thus,treatment should grasp the"harmony and descending"characteristics of stomach,"soft and empty"characteristics of esophagus.Accordingly,he formulates the treatment method as"dispersing stagnation,descending fire and purging fu-organs",to disperse stagnation for treating the root,descend fire for treating symptoms,purge fu-organs as a method,while give consideration to emotional regulation and improving extresophageal symptoms,with remarkable clinical efficacy.

AIM To study the chemical constituents from the stems and barks of Maytenus variabilis(Hemsl.)C.Y.Cheng.METHODS The 95％ethanol extract from the stems and barks of M.variabilis was isolated and purified by silica gel,Sephadex LH-20 and semi preparative HPLC,then the structures of obtained compounds were identified by physicochemical properties and spectral data.RESULTS Twenty-three compounds were isolated and identified as β-amyrin(1),3β-acetoxyolean-12-en-11-one(2),ursa-12-ene-11-one-3-ol octocosate(3),friedelin(4),canophyllol(5),pinoresinol(6),medioresinol(7),isolariciresinol(8),dihydrodehydrodiconiferyl alcohol(9),vanillic acid(10),7R,8S-5-methoxydihydrodehydroconiferyl alcohol(11),β-hydroxypropiovanillone(12),triptregeline B(13),triptregeline E(14),(+)-evofolin B(15),2,5-dimethoxybenzoquinone(16),olean-12-ene-3,11-dione(17),β-sitosterol(18),(-)-(7R,7'R,7"S,8S,8'S,8"S)-4',4"-dihydroxy-3,3',3",5-tetramethoxy-7,9',7',9-diepoxy-4,8"-oxy-8,8'-sesquineolignan-7",9"-diol(19),phyllostadimer B(20),rayalinol(21),lyoniresinol(22),dihydrobuddlenol B(23).CONCLUSION Compounds 3,9-11,13-14,16,19-21,23 are isolated from genus Maytenus for the first time,and compounds 2,4-5,7-8,12,15,17,22 are first found from this plant.