OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to investigate the risk factors of prognosis in patients with early-onset prostate cancer treated without surgery. A nomogram will be constructed and validated to predict overall survival (OS) of patients with early-onset prostate cancer treated without surgery. METHODS: The clinical data was obtained from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database on prostate cancer patients aged 18－55 years who were treated without surgery between 2010 and 2015. The clinical data set was divided into training set and validation set according to 7∶3 ratio, including age, race, marital status, Gleason score, prostate specific antigen (PSA) and other 8 factors. And significant variables were screened by univariate Cox regression analysis. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to identify the influence factors. Stepwise regression method was used to select the most influential factors on the total OS, and R software was used to build a nomogram model. The accuracy and prediction ability of the model were verified by drawing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and Calibration Plot. The clinical benefit of the model was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 8 212 patients who met the criteria were randomly assigned to the training set (n=5 752) or validation set (n=2 460), with no statistical difference between the two groups (all P>0.05). Six factors were identified through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis including marital status, N stage, M stage, radiotherapy, PSA and Gleason score, which were most closely associated with the OS of prostate cancer patients, and a column graph model was constructed based on these factors. The Consistency index (C-index) of the model in the training set and the verification set were 0.802 and 0.794, respectively. And the apparent diffusion coefficient (AUC) was 0.851, 0.855 and 0.855 for training sets 1, 3 and 5 years, and 0.694, 0.860 and 0.832 for verification sets 1, 3 and 5 years. The calibration chart showed a good agreement between the predicted and actual values of the model. In the analysis of decision curve, the model showed good clinical application value. CONCLUSION The prediction model based on marital status, radiotherapy, M stage, N stage, PSA and Gleason score for early-onset prostate cancer patients without surgical treatment has certain reference value which is expected to become an effective tool for clinicians to treat in future prospective studies on large and multi-center samples.
Humans ; Male ; Prostatic Neoplasms/diagnosis* ; Middle Aged ; Nomograms ; SEER Program ; Prognosis ; Adult ; Prostate-Specific Antigen ; Risk Factors ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Neoplasm Grading ; ROC Curve

BACKGROUND: As research progresses, there is a growing body of evidence indicating that urinary metallothionein (MT) levels may be elevated in individuals exposed to cadmium (Cd). This study aimed to investigate the potential association between urinary MT levels and causes of mortality among residents of the Kakehashi River Basin who have been exposed to Cd. METHOD: The study involved a total of 1,398 men and 1,731 women were conducted between 1981 and 1982, with follow-up until November 2016. The study employed the Cox proportional-hazards model to examine the association between higher urinary MT concentrations and the risk of all-cause or cause-specific mortality within the population. Furthermore, the Fine and Gray competing risks regression model was used to evaluate the links between specific causes of death. RESULTS: The findings revealed that elevated urinary MT concentrations were linked to increased all-cause mortality and higher mortality rates from renal and urinary tract diseases across all participants. Specifically, in men, higher urinary MT levels were associated with elevated all-cause mortality, while in women, increased concentrations were linked to higher mortality from endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases, as well as cardiovascular diseases. Even after adjusting for competing risks, higher urinary MT concentrations were associated with tumor-related mortality in men and continued to be associated with cardiovascular disease mortality in women. CONCLUSIONS In conclusion, the results suggest that women may face a greater risk of adverse health effects due to prolonged exposure to Cd. Urinary MT levels could potentially serve as a biomarker for mortality from these diseases in populations chronically exposed to Cd.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Cadmium/urine* ; Japan/epidemiology* ; Metallothionein/metabolism* ; Middle Aged ; Cause of Death ; Adult ; Follow-Up Studies ; Aged ; Environmental Exposure/analysis* ; Proportional Hazards Models

BACKGROUND: To explore the associations of green tea, coffee, black tea, and oolong tea consumption with mortality from chronic kidney disease (CKD) as the underlying cause among Japanese adults. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 110,585 men and women aged 40-79 years at recruitment from 1986 to 1990. Baseline information on the consumption of tea and coffee, lifestyles, and medical histories was obtained via self-administered questionnaires. We used multivariable Cox regression models to estimate sex-specific hazard ratios and 95% CIs of mortality from CKD associated with the consumption of green tea, coffee, black tea, or oolong tea. RESULTS: After a median 19-year follow-up, the hazard ratios of mortality from CKD in women were 0.49 (95% CI, 0.22-1.06) for 1-2 cups of green tea per day, 0.56 (0.31-0.99) for 3-4 cups per day, and 0.55 (0.32-0.93) for ≥5 cups per day, compared with <1 cup per day. No such association was found in men. Coffee, black tea, and oolong tea consumption were not associated with CKD risk in either sex. CONCLUSIONS Daily consumption of green tea was associated with a lower risk of mortality from CKD in women.
Humans ; Tea ; Coffee ; Middle Aged ; Male ; Female ; Japan/epidemiology* ; Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/epidemiology* ; Aged ; Adult ; Prospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; Proportional Hazards Models ; East Asian People

BACKGROUND: Quick accomplishment and responsiveness are behaviors related to time management by perceived control of time, such as a positive feeling of using one's time well. In recent years, positive psychological states have been associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Thus, we investigated the associations of quick accomplishment and responsiveness with CVD mortality in a large cohort study. METHODS: The study participants were 75,049 (30,901 men and 44,148 women) aged 40-79 between 1988 and 1990 and followed until the end of 2009. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of mortality from CVD according to quick accomplishment, responsiveness, and their combination were calculated after adjustment for potential confounding factors using the Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Quick accomplishment was associated with a lower risk of CVD mortality in women; a similar but marginally significant association was observed in men; the respective multivariable HR (95%CI) was 0.91 (0.83-0.99) and 0.93 (0.86-1.01). The presence of both quick accomplishment and responsiveness was associated with lower risk in men, which was confined to men aged 60-79; the respective multivariable HR (95%CI) was 0.88 (0.78-0.99) and 0.83 (0.72-0.96). CONCLUSIONS Quick accomplishment was associated with a lower risk of CVD mortality. Quick accomplishment and responsiveness combined were inversely associated with CVD mortality risk among older men.
Adult ; Aged ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Cardiovascular Diseases/psychology* ; Cohort Studies ; Japan/epidemiology* ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Risk Factors ; East Asian People/psychology*

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the predominant cause of mortality in China. However, the mechanisms linking sarcopenia to CVD remain poorly understood, particularly in normal-weight populations. Individuals with the absence of overweight or obesity may tend to experience missed opportunities for timely intervention. This study aimed to investigate the longitudinal association between sarcopenia and incidence of new-onset CVD in a normal-weight population, and to examine the mediating effect of functional limitation in this relationship. METHODS: We conducted a closed-cohort analysis using a nationwide sample of 4,147 middle-aged and older adults with normal weight in China. We performed Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to explore the associations of baseline sarcopenia with incident CVD. The difference method was applied to estimate the mediation proportion of functional limitation in this association. RESULTS: Over a mean follow-up period of 7.62 years, CVD occurred in 835 participants. In the multivariable-adjusted Cox model, individuals with sarcopenia exhibited a significantly higher likelihood of developing incident CVD compared to those without sarcopenia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.45, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.21-1.73, P < 0.001). Similar associations were observed for the incidence of heart disease and stroke. Functional limitation accounted for approximately 15.0% of the total effect of sarcopenia on incident CVD (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Sarcopenia exerts both direct and indirect effects on incident CVD among middle-aged and older adults who are normal weight, with functional limitation serving as a significant mediator. Interventions targeting both sarcopenia and functional limitation may offer a promising strategy for enhancing cardiovascular health in this population.
Humans ; Sarcopenia/complications* ; China/epidemiology* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology* ; Aged ; Incidence ; Cohort Studies ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Risk Factors ; Aged, 80 and over ; Longitudinal Studies

BACKGROUND: Depression among older adults is an important public health issue, and air and noise pollution have been found to contribute to exacerbation of depressive symptoms. This study examined the association of exposure to air and noise pollutants with clinically-newly-diagnosed depressive disorder. The mediating role of individual pro-inflammatory markers was explored. METHODS: We linked National Health Insurance claim data with 2998 healthy community-dwellers aged 55 and above who participated in the Healthy Aging Longitudinal Study between 2009 and 2013. Newly diagnosed depressive disorder was identified using diagnostic codes from the medical claim data. Pollutants were estimated using nationwide land use regression, including PM_2.5 and PM₁₀, carbon monoxide, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and road traffic noise. Cox proportional hazard models were employed to examine the association between pollutants and newly developed depressive disorders. The mediating effect of serum pro-inflammatory biomarkers on the relationship was examined. RESULTS: Among the 2998 participants, 209 had newly diagnosed depressive disorders. In adjusted Cox proportional hazard models, one interquartile range increase in PM_2.5 (8.53 µg/m³) was associated with a 17.5% increased hazard of developing depressive disorders. Other air pollutants and road traffic noise were not linearly associated with depressive disorder incidence. Levels of serum tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 mediated the relationship between PM_2.5 and survival time to newly onset depressive disorder. CONCLUSION PM_2.5 is related to an increased risk of newly developed depressive disorder among middle-aged and older adults, and the association is partially mediated by the pro-inflammatory marker TNF-R1.
Humans ; Particulate Matter/analysis* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Longitudinal Studies ; Aged ; Incidence ; Air Pollutants/analysis* ; Environmental Exposure/adverse effects* ; Taiwan/epidemiology* ; Receptors, Tumor Necrosis Factor, Type I/blood* ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Biomarkers/blood* ; Depression/epidemiology* ; Aged, 80 and over ; Depressive Disorder/chemically induced* ; Risk Factors ; Air Pollution/adverse effects*

Objective:Retrospective analysis of the correlation between clinicopathologic features and related indexes and prognosis in patients with recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Methods:One hundred and eight nasopharyngeal cancer（NPC） patients with post-treatment recurrence in Yunnan Cancer Hospital from January 2013 to January 2018 were collected, and the survival time was estimated by Kaplan-Meier method, and clinicopathological characteristics were analyzed by log-rank test; risk factors and prognosis were analyzed by Cox proportional risk model for single-factor and multifactorial analysis. A P-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results:The median survival of all patients was 54 months, with a 3-year survival rate of 80.2% and a 5-year survival rate of 39.8%. The 5-year overall survival rate was 50.2% for patients >46 years old and 27.9% for patients ≤46 years old（P<0.05）, a statistically significant difference. Univariate analysis showed that overall survival was associated with age, chemotherapy regimen, EBV early antigen IgA, plasma D-dimer, glycan antigen-125, γ-interferon, α-tumor necrosis factor, IL-10, and IL-4（P<0.05）. Multifactorial analysis revealed that age, chemotherapy regimen, EBV early antigen IgA, plasma D-dimer, glycan antigen-125, and interleukin 10 were independent influences on the prognosis of recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma（P<0.05）. Conclusion:Differences in chemotherapy regimens affect the prognosis of recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Elevated plasma D-dimer, glycan antigen 125, and interleukin 10 levels affect the overall survival of recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma, which may be a valid independent prognostic factor, and are expected to provide new biomarkers for nasopharyngeal carcinoma in the clinic.
Humans ; Prognosis ; Nasopharyngeal Neoplasms/mortality* ; Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma ; Retrospective Studies ; Neoplasm Recurrence, Local ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Female ; Survival Rate ; Adult ; Risk Factors ; Interleukin-10/blood* ; Aged ; Proportional Hazards Models

Objective:To observe the clinical progression of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma（LR-PTMC）, analyze the influencing factors of its oncological outcomes, and explore the feasibility of active surveillance（AS） of LR-PTMC. Methods:This study adopted a prospective observational research design. A total of 85 subjects diagnosed with LR-PTMC during health checkup in Health Management Center of our hospital from March 2021 to October 2022 were enrolled as the research subjects, for at least 2 years of AS follow-up observation. The clinical progress and oncological outcomes were recorded, disease progression was defined as any increase in nodule diameter ≥3 mm or the appearance of new lesions or lymph node metastasis or distant metastasis, and the oncological outcome was use disease progression defining. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors of oncological outcomes in LR-PTMC patients. Results:A total of 85 LR-PTMC patients who underwent physical examinations were included in this study. The median follow-up time was 2 years, and a total of 23 patients（27.06%） experienced disease progression. Among them, 18 patients（21.18%） had enlarged lesions（any nodule diameter increased by ≥3 mm）, and 5 patients（5.88%） had abnormal or metastatic cervical lymph nodes. The 2-year cumulative disease progression rate was 9.41%. The incidence age of LR-PTMC patients was younger, with a higher proportion of ≤45 years old. The proportion of baseline nodules with a maximum diameter greater than 5 mm is higher, and the proportion of baseline TPO Ab positivity was higher. Ultrasound showed a higher proportion of microcalcifications compared to the non progression group, and the differences were statistically significant（all P<0.05）. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that age of onset ≤45 years RR 95% CI 1.052（1.018-1.088） and ultrasound showing microcalcifications RR 95% CI 3.361（1.379-8.194） were independent risk factors affecting disease progression during AS in LR-PTMC patients（P<0.05）. Conclusion:Most LR-PTMC patients maintain stable lesion size and low lymph node metastasis rate during the AS process, with good oncological outcomes in the short term. AS can be considered as a safe and effective alternative to surgical treatment for LR-PTMC patients. But for patients with onset age ≤45 years and microcalcifications, the follow-up interval can be shortened for close observation.
Humans ; Thyroid Neoplasms/pathology* ; Disease Progression ; Prospective Studies ; Carcinoma, Papillary/pathology* ; Female ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Watchful Waiting ; Lymphatic Metastasis ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Risk Factors

COMPERA 2.0 risk stratification has been demonstrated to be useful in patients with precapillary pulmonary hypertension (PH). However, its suitability for patients at risk for post-capillary PH or PH associated with left heart disease (PH-LHD) is unclear. To investigate the use of COMPERA 2.0 in patients with severe aortic stenosis (SAS) undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), who are at risk for post-capillary PH, a total of 327 eligible SAS patients undergoing TAVR at our institution between September 2015 and November 2020 were included in the study. Patients were classified into four strata before and after TAVR using the COMPERA 2.0 risk score. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier curves, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards regression model. The study cohort had a median (interquartile range) age of 76 (70‒80) years and a pulmonary arterial systolic pressure of 33 (27‒43) mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa) before TAVR. The overall mortality was 11.9% during 26 (15‒47) months of follow-up. Before TAVR, cumulative mortality was higher with an increase in the risk stratum level (log-rank, both P<0.001); each increase in the risk stratum level resulted in an increased risk of death (hazard ratio (HR) 2.53, 95% confidential interval (CI) 1.54‒4.18, P<0.001), which was independent of age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), hemoglobin, albumin, and valve type (HR 1.76, 95% CI 1.01‒3.07, P=0.047). Similar results were observed at 30 d after TAVR. COMPERA 2.0 can serve as a useful tool for risk stratification in patients with SAS undergoing TAVR, indicating its potential application in the management of PH-LHD. Further validation is needed in patients with confirmed post-capillary PH by right heart catheterization.
Humans ; Aortic Valve Stenosis/complications* ; Aged ; Hypertension, Pulmonary/mortality* ; Male ; Female ; Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement ; Aged, 80 and over ; Risk Assessment/methods* ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Kaplan-Meier Estimate ; Retrospective Studies

OBJECTIVES: To develop an early atrial fibrillation (AF) risk prediction model based on large-scale electrocardiogram (ECG) data from the Chinese population. METHODS: The data of multiple ECG records of 30 383 patients admitted in the Chinese PLA General Hospital between 2009 and 2023 were randomly divided into the training set and the internal testing set in a 7:3 ratio. The predictive factors were selected based on the training set using univariate analysis, LASSO regression, and the Boruta algorithm. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to establish the ECG model and the composite model incorporating age, gender, and ECG model score. The discrimination power, calibration, and clinical net benefits of the models were evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curves, and decision curves. RESULTS: The cohort included 51.1% male patients with a median age of the patients of 51 (36, 62) years and an AF incidence of 4.5% (1370/30 383). In the ECG model, the parameters related to the P wave and QRS complex were identified as significant predictors. In the testing set, the AUROC of the ECG model for predicting 5-year AF risk was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.74-0.80), which was increased to 0.81 (95% CI: 0.78-0.83) after incorporating age and gender, with a net reclassification improvement of 0.123 and an integrated discrimination improvement of 0.04 (P<0.05). The calibration curve of the model was close to the diagonal line. Decision curve analysis showed that the clinical net benefit of the composite model was higher than that of the ECG model across the majority of threshold probability. CONCLUSIONS The composite model incorporating quantitative ECG features during sinus rhythm, along with age and gender, can effectively predict AF risk in the Chinese population, thus providing a low-cost screening tool for early AF risk assessment and management.
Humans ; Atrial Fibrillation/epidemiology* ; Electrocardiography ; Middle Aged ; Male ; Female ; China/epidemiology* ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Adult ; Risk Factors ; Risk Assessment ; East Asian People