Objective To study the application of the trinity model and trinity forecasting method in predicting the incidence trend of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB).Methods By applying the monthly PTB incidence data in Zhe-jiang Province from 2011 to 2021,a prediction model was constructed based on the trinity model and trinity forecas-ting method.Predictive performance of the model was evaluated.Results The mean relative prediction errors of model 1 and model 2 based on trinity model and trinity forecasting method were 7.94％and 8.43％,respectively.The mean relative prediction error obtained by adopting autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was 8.87％,and the above mean relative prediction error were all in the range of 7.9％-8.9％,which presented an excellent performance of the forecasting model.Conclusion The trinity model is an excellent time series forecasting model,and the trinity forecasting method is an excellent time series forecasting method,with high application value.

Objective:To analyze the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of a death case of meningococcal meningitis in Hengyang city, Hunan Province in 2024.Methods:Epidemiological investigation of the death case was performed, and samples from the patient and close contacts were collected. Following cultivation and isolation, Neisseria meningitidis ( Nm) strains were analyzed by antimicrobial susceptibility testing, pulsed field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), and whole-genome sequencing for analyzing epidemiological and etiological characteristics. Phylogenetic analysis was carried out using core genomic multilocus sequence typing (cgMLST). Results:The case was a 16-year-old high school boarding student with fulminant meningococcal meningitis. He had shock symptoms, and died within 24 h of the onset of symptoms. Six Nm strains were isolated from the patient and his roommates, belonging to two distinct clades. Isolate 144569 from the patient was highly homologous to isolate 144572 from a close contact, both belonging to the highly pathogenic sublineage L44.1 of CC4821. The typical molecular features was C: P1.7-2, 14: F5-101: ST4821 (CC4821). The two strains carried the antimicrobial resistance genes of gyrA-71 and penA-552, indicating reduced susceptibility to quinolone and penicillin, which was with their resistance phenotype. The isolates from four close contacts clustered within the same clade, characterized by the molecular features of B: P1.18-25, 9-18: ST5829 (UA). Conclusions:The death case is caused by Nm serogroup C from highly pathogenic sublineage L44.1 of CC4821. The spread of this isolate has the potential risk of outbreaks of invasive meningococcal disease. It is necessary to enhanced the molecular epidemiological surveillance, particularly focusing on the transmission of multiple serogroups of Nm among adolescents and the increasing exposure risk.

Objective: To explore the incidence and clinical characteristics of engraftment syndrome (ES) after syngeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (syn-HSCT) in patients with hematological diseases. Methods: The clinical data of 21 patients who received syn-HSCT at People's Hospital of Peking University from January 1994 to May 2018 were retrospectively analyzed. Results: Seven (33.3% ) of 21 patients developed ES. The onset of ES symptoms occurred at a median of 8 (range: 5-13) days after HSCT, and the diagnosis of ES occurred at a median of 10 (range: 7-14) days after HSCT. Steroids were administered immediately after the diagnosis of ES, the median time of symptom continuance was 2 (range: 1-5) days, and all patients showed complete resolution of ES symptoms. In the multivariate analysis, patients with acute myeloid leukemia and faster neutrophil reconstitution were the risk factors for ES (HR=15.298, 95% CI 1.486-157.501, P=0.022, and HR=17.459, 95% CI 1.776-171.687, P=0.014) . Meanwhile, there was no significant difference in the overall survival and disease-free survival between patients with ES and those without ES. Conclusion: A high incidence of ES was observed in syn-HSCT recipients. Moreover, the prognosis of ES was excellent.
Humans ; Retrospective Studies ; Incidence ; Graft vs Host Disease/etiology* ; Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation/adverse effects* ; Hematologic Diseases/complications*

Objective: To investigate dose-response associations between fluid overload (FO) and hospital mortality in patients with sepsis. Methods: The current cohort study was prospective and multicenter. Data were derived from the China Critical Care Sepsis Trial, which was conducted from January 2013 to August 2014. Patients aged≥18 years who were admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) for at least 3 days were included. Fluid input/output, fluid balance, fluid overload (FO), and maximum FO (MFO) were calculated during the first 3 days of ICU admission. The patients were divided into three groups based on MFO values: MFO<5%L/kg, MFO 5%-10%L/kg, and MFO≥10% L/kg. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to predict time to death in hospital in the three groups. Associations between MFO and in-hospital mortality were evaluated via multivariable Cox regression models with restricted cubic splines. Results: A total of 2 070 patients were included in the study, of which 1 339 were male and 731 were female, and the mean age was (62.6±17.9) years. Of 696 (33.6%) who died in hospital, 968 (46.8%) were in the MFO<5%L/kg group, 530 (25.6%) were in the MFO 5%-10%L/kg group, and 572 (27.6%) were in the MFO≥10%L/kg group. Deceased patients had significantly higher fluid input than surviving patients during the first 3 days [7 642.0 (2 874.3, 13 639.5) ml vs. 5 738.0 (1 489.0, 7 153.5)ml], and lower fluid output [4 086.0 (1 367.0, 6 354.5) ml vs. 6 130.0 (2 046.0, 11 762.0) ml]. The cumulative survival rates in the three groups gradually decreased with length of ICU stay, and they were 74.9% (725/968) in the MFO<5% L/kg group, 67.7% (359/530) in the MFO 5%-10%L/kg group, and 51.6% (295/572) in the MFO≥10%L/kg group. Compared with the MFO<5%L/kg group, the MFO≥10%L/kg group had a 49% increased risk of inhospital mortality (HR=1.49, 95%CI 1.28-1.73). For each 1% L/kg increase in MFO, the risk of in-hospital mortality increased by 7% (HR=1.07, 95% CI 1.05-1.09). There was a"J-shaped"non-linear association between MFO and in-hospital mortality with a nadir of 4.1% L/kg. Conclusion: Higher and lower optimum fluid balance levels were associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality, as reflected by the observed J-shaped non-linear association between fluid overload and inhospital mortality.
Humans ; Male ; Female ; Adult ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Hospital Mortality ; Cohort Studies ; Prospective Studies ; Water-Electrolyte Imbalance ; Sepsis ; Intensive Care Units ; Retrospective Studies

Humans ; Consensus ; Hypersensitivity ; Desensitization, Immunologic/adverse effects* ; Immunotherapy/adverse effects* ; Injections, Subcutaneous ; Allergens

Objectives: To examine the influence of adjuvant chemotherapy after radical resection on the survival of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(ICC) and to identify patients who may benefit from it. Methods: The clinical and pathological data of 654 patients with ICC diagnosed by postoperative pathology from December 2011 to December 2017 at 13 hospitals in China were collected retrospectively. According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria,455 patients were included in this study,including 69 patients (15.2%) who received adjuvant chemotherapy and 386 patients (84.8%) who did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy. There were 278 males and 177 females,with age of 59 (16) years (M(IQR))(range:23 to 88 years). Propensity score matching (PSM) method was used to balance the difference between adjuvant chemotherapy group and non-adjuvant chemotherapy group. Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot the survival curve,the Log-rank test was used to compare the difference of overall survival(OS) and recurrence free survival(RFS)between the two groups. Univariate analysis was used to determine prognostic factors for OS. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were then performed for prognostic factors with P<0.10 to identify potential independent risk factors. The study population were stratified by included study variables and the AJCC staging system,and a subgroup analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method to explore the potential benefit subgroup population of adjuvant chemotherapy. Results: After 1∶1 PSM matching,69 patients were obtained in each group. There was no significant difference in baseline data between the two groups (all P>0.05). After PSM,Cox multivariate analysis showed that lymph node metastasis (HR=3.06,95%CI:1.52 to 6.16,P=0.039),width of resection margin (HR=0.56,95%CI:0.32 to 0.99,P=0.044) and adjuvant chemotherapy (HR=0.51,95%CI:0.29 to 0.91,P=0.022) were independent prognostic factors for OS. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the median OS time of adjuvant chemotherapy group was significantly longer than that of non-adjuvant chemotherapy group (P<0.05). There was no significant difference in RFS time between the adjuvant chemotherapy group and the non-adjuvant chemotherapy group (P>0.05). Subgroup analysis showed that,the OS of female patients,without HBV infection,carcinoembryonic antigen<9.6 μg/L,CA19-9≥200 U/ml,intraoperative bleeding<400 ml,tumor diameter>5 cm,microvascular invasion negative,without lymph node metastasis,and AJCC stage Ⅲ patients could benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy (all P<0.05). Conclusion: Adjuvant chemotherapy can prolong the OS of patients with ICC after radical resection,and patients with tumor diameter>5 cm,without lymph node metastasis,AJCC stage Ⅲ,and microvascular invasion negative are more likely to benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy.

Objective To explore the relationship between different obesity indicators and carotid intima-media thickness(CIMT)in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM).Methods A total of 1762 T2DM patients who visited the Endocrinology Department of Changzhou Second People's Hospital Affiliated with Nanjing Medical University and the Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine Hospital Affiliated with Nanjing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine from January 2019 to February 2022 were enrolled in this study.They were divided into youth group(18～44 years old,n=402),middle aged group(45～59 years old,n=1032),and elderly group(≥60 years old,n=328)according to WHO age classification criteria.The influencing factors for CIMT thickening in T2DM patients were analyzed using binary logistic regression,and the evaluation of the predictive effect of different obesity indicators on CIMT thickening was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves.Results The subcuta-neous fat area,visceral fat area(VFA),neck circumference(NC),BMI,WC,cardiac metabolic index(CMI),Chinese visceral fat index(CAVI),visceral fat index,triglyceride glucose index,body roundness index,lipid aggregation index,HbA1c,DBP,TC,TG,HDL-C,LDL-C were lower in the middle aged and elderly groups than in youth group(P＜0.05).Binary logistic regression showed that VFA,NC,CMI in young T2DM patients,CAVI in middle aged T2DM patients,and NC in elderly T2DM patients were influ-encing factors for CIMT thickening.ROC curve analysis showed that VFA in young T2DM patients,CAVI in middle aged T2DM patients,and NC in elderly T2DM patients had a better predictive effect on CIMT thickening,with areas under the ROC curve of 0.567,0.574,and 0.573 respectively.Conclusion VFA,CAVI,and NC have a certain predictive effect on CIMT thickening in young,middle aged,and elderly T2DM patients.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the involvement of endothelial cells (ECs)-derived exosomes in the anti-apoptotic effect of Danhong Injection (DHI) and the mechanism of DHI-induced exosomal protection against postinfarction myocardial apoptosis. METHODS: A mouse permanent myocardial infarction (MI) model was established, followed by a 14-day daily treatment with DHI, DHI plus GW4869 (an exosomal inhibitor), or saline. Phosphate-buffered saline (PBS)-induced ECs-derived exosomes were isolated, analyzed by miRNA microarray and validated by droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR). The exosomes induced by DHI (DHI-exo), PBS (PBS-exo), or DHI+GW4869 (GW-exo) were isolated and injected into the peri-infarct zone following MI. The protective effects of DHI and DHI-exo on MI hearts were measured by echocardiography, Masson's trichrome staining, and TUNEL apoptosis assay. The Western blotting and quantitative reverse transcription PCR (qRT-PCR) were used to evaluate the expression levels of miR-125b/p53-mediated pathway components, including miR-125b, p53, Bak, Bax, and caspase-3 activities. RESULTS: DHI significantly improved cardiac function and reduced infarct size in MI mice (P<0.01), which was abolished by the GW4869 intervention. DHI promoted the exosomal secretion in ECs (P<0.01). According to the results of exosomal miRNA microarray assay, 30 differentially expressed miRNAs in the DHI-exo were identified (28 up-regulated miRNAs and 2 down-regulated miRNAs). Among them, DHI significantly elevated miR-125b level in DHI-exo and DHI-treated ECs, a recognized apoptotic inhibitor impeding p53 signaling (P<0.05). Remarkably, treatment with DHI and DHI-exo attenuated apoptosis, elevated miR-125b expression level, inhibited capsase-3 activity, and down-regulated the expression levels of proapoptotic effectors (p53, Bak, and Bax) in post-MI hearts, whereas these effects were blocked by GW4869 (P<0.05 or P<0.01). CONCLUSION DHI and DHI-induced exosomes inhibited apoptosis, promoted the miR-125b expression level, and regulated the p53 apoptotic pathway in post-infarction myocardium.
Mice ; Animals ; Tumor Suppressor Protein p53/metabolism* ; Endothelial Cells/metabolism* ; Exosomes/metabolism* ; bcl-2-Associated X Protein/metabolism* ; Myocardium/metabolism* ; Myocardial Infarction/drug therapy* ; Apoptosis ; MicroRNAs/metabolism*

Objective: To explore the prevalence of sexting among secondary vocational school students and to examine the correlation between sexting and mental health, so as to provide evidence for prevention and intervention on adolescents mental health. Methods: In April 2021, three secondary vocational schools from central urban area, outskirts and outer suburbs in Shanghai, among 1 580 students were selected by cluster sampling. Results: The proportions of students who received and who forwarded others private photos or videos were 11.96% and 2.78%, respectively. The proportion of students who sent others personal photos or videos was 2.54%. And the proportions of boys were higher than those of girls ( χ 2=45.89, 24.09, 6.66, P <0.01). The results of multivariable Logistic analysis showed that compared with those who had never sexted, students who had ever had any sexting were at higher risk of anxiety ( OR=2.40, 95%CI =1.59-3.61), depression( OR=1.86, 95%CI =1.25-2.75), non suicidal self injury intention ( OR=2.34, 95%CI =1.48-3.69) and suicidal intention ( OR=2.96, 95%CI =1.83-4.79)( P < 0.05 ). Conclusion There is a significant correlation between sexting and mental health among secondary vocational school students. The latent risks of sexting should be included in the curriculum of comprehensive sex education for teenagers to enhance their media literacy and decision making capability, so as to prevent sexual assault or abuse caused by sexting and promote sexual and reproductive health and as well as mental health of adolescents.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the clinical outcomes and prognostic factors of refractory/relapsed acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients who received allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT). METHODS: The clinical data of 80 refractory/relapsed AML patients who received allo-HSCT from December 2013 to June 2020 were retrospectively analyzed, including the overall survival (OS) rate, disease-free survival (DFS) rate, relapse rate, incidence of transplant-related mortality (TRM), and the related risk factors were explored. RESULTS: Hematopoietic reconstitution was obtained in all 80 patients after transplantation, the 3-year OS and DFS rates were (48.8±6.3)% and (40.8±6.7)%, respectively. The 3-year cumulative incidence of relapse and TRM were 33.8% (95%CI: 0.254-0.449) and 15.0%(95%CI: 0.114-0.198), respectively. Univariate analysis showed that non-remission (NR) status before transplantation, DNMT3A R882 mutations and grade II-IV acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) had negative effects on OS and DFS. Multivariate analysis indicated that the DNMT3A R882 mutations and grade II-IV aGVHD were independent risk factors for OS (HR=0.253, 95%CI: 0.092-0.695, P=0.008; HR=5.681, 95%CI: 2.101-15.361, P=0.001) and DFS (HR=0.200, 95%CI: 0.071-0.569, P=0.003; HR=7.117, 95%CI: 2.556-19.818, P<0.001). The 3-year cumulative incidence of relapse was 71.4%(95%CI: 0.610-0.836) in genetic high-risk group, which was higher than 23.3%(95%CI: 0.147-0.370) in intermediate-risk group and 23.5%(95%CI: 0.127-0.437) in favorable-risk group (P=0.006). CONCLUSION Allo-HSCT is an effective and safe choice for refractory/relapsed AML patients. DNMT3A R882 mutations and grade II-IV aGVHD are negative prognostic factors of allo-HSCT for refractory/relapsed AML patients.
Graft vs Host Disease ; Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation/adverse effects* ; Humans ; Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute/therapy* ; Prognosis ; Recurrence ; Retrospective Studies ; Transplantation, Homologous/adverse effects*