1.Causal relationship between five autoimmune diseases and intervertebral disc degeneration:a bidirectional Mendelian analysis.
Bao-Fei ZHANG ; Xun-Lu YIN ; Ze-Ling HUANG ; Shuai PEI ; Yu-Wei LI
China Journal of Orthopaedics and Traumatology 2025;38(8):856-866
OBJECTIVE:
To explore the potential causal relationship between intervertebral disc degeneration and certain autoimmune diseases.
METHODS:
Genome-wide association study (GWAS) data of 5 autoimmune diseases were obtained from large-scale GWAS databases. Data on internal vertebral disc degeneration (IVDD) were derived from the FinnGen consortium, which included 294, 770 controls and 41, 669 cases. A two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed to investigate the potential causal relationship between the 5 autoimmune diseases and IVDD. Multiple analytical methods were adopted, including MR methods such as inverse variance weighting(IVW), MR-Egger, weighted median, weighted mode, and simple mode. Cochran's Q test, leave-one-out analysis, and MR-Egger intercept test were conducted to assess heterogeneity, robustness, and pleiotropy. For the robustness of the results, MR-PRESSO was used to detect outliers, and MR analysis was re-conducted after removing the outliers.
RESULTS:
The MR analysis results showed that there might be a bidirectional causal relationship between ankylosing spondylitis(AS) and IVDD:AS on IVDD, OR=1.038, 95%CI (1.024, 1.053), P=0.000;and IVDD on AS, OR=2.117, 95%CI(1.065, 4.207), P=0.032. There might be a positive correlation between IVDD and rheumatoid arthritis(RA) as well as systemic lupus erythematosus(SLE):IVDD on RA, OR=1.184, 95%CI(1.071, 1.309), P=0.001;and IVDD on SLE, OR=1.678, 95%CI(1.187, 2.372), P=0.003. There was no significant correlation between ulcerative colitis(UC), autoimmune thyroiditis(ATD) and IVDD. After removing outliers by MR-PRESSO and re-conducting MR analysis, the results did not change qualitatively. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the results were robust to potential sources of bias.
CONCLUSION
AS and IVDD may be risk factors for each other, and IVDD may be a potential risk factor for RA and SLE. These findings provide a basis for guiding the prevention and combined diagnosis and treatment of IVDD, AS, RA, and SLE, while the specific underlying mechanisms still require further experimental basic research.
Humans
;
Intervertebral Disc Degeneration/etiology*
;
Mendelian Randomization Analysis
;
Autoimmune Diseases/complications*
;
Genome-Wide Association Study
;
Spondylitis, Ankylosing/genetics*
;
Arthritis, Rheumatoid/genetics*
2.Gray Matter Volume Changes in Migraine Patients Using 7T Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Voxel-Based Morphometry
Xun PEI ; Yanliang MEI ; Xue ZHANG ; Yu'an LI ; Tong CHEN ; Yuanbin ZHAO ; Yonggang WANG ; Binbin SUI
Chinese Journal of Medical Imaging 2025;33(5):461-466
Purpose To explore the characteristics of gray matter(GM)volume changes in migraine patients using 7T MRI and voxel-based morphometry(VBM).Materials and Methods This prospective study enrolled 30 migraine patients and 41 age-and gender-matched healthy controls from Beijing Tiantan Hospital,Capital Medical University between November 2023 and November 2024.All participants underwent 7T MRI with 3D T1-weighted magnetization-prepared two rapid gradient-echo(MP2RAGE)sequences for structural brain imaging.VBM analysis was performed to quantify GM,white matter,cerebrospinal fluid and total brain volumes,followed by calculations of their relative percentages.The difference in GM volume between the two groups was compared to identify brain regions with characteristic GM volume changes in migraine patients.And the correlation between these characteristic GM volume alterations and clinical scales was analyzed.Results Migraine patients exhibited significantly lower total GM volume compared to healthy controls(t=2.096,P=0.040),while no group differences were observed in white matter or cerebrospinal fluid volumes(t=0.980,0.151;P=0.330,0.880).VBM analysis revealed reduced GM volume in the left orbitofrontal cortex(t=4.301,P=0.022),left hippocampus(t=5.226,P=0.006)and left parahippocampal gyrus(t=3.960,P=0.040)in the migraine group.Negative correlations were identified between:left orbitofrontal cortex GM volume and headache duration(r=-0.506,P=0.008),left hippocampal GM volume and patient health questionnaire-9 scores(r=-0.620,P=0.003),and left parahippocampal GM volume and visual analogue scale scores(r=-0.449,P=0.019).Conclusion VBM analysis based on 7T MP2RAGE data demonstrates characteristic GM volume reductions in the left orbitofrontal cortex,left hippocampus and left parahippocampal gyrus in migraine patients,with these structural alterations significantly correlate with depressive symptoms and headache burden.The observed microstructural abnormalities may reflect underlying pathophysiological mechanisms related to pain processing,emotional regulation and long-term disease burden in migraine.
3.A study on the correlation between regional hemodynamics and plaque morphology of middle cerebral artery in atherosclerotic stenosis using four-dimensional flow MRI
Yuanbin ZHAO ; Xiaoyan BAI ; Chao ZHANG ; Xue ZHANG ; Tong CHEN ; Xun PEI ; Yuehua PU ; Ligang SONG ; Binbin SUI
Chinese Journal of Radiology 2025;59(3):261-268
Objective:To explore the hemodynamic characteristics of the middle cerebral artery (MCA) in atherosclerotic stenosis using four-dimensional flow (4D Flow) MRI, and combining high-resolution magnetic resonance vessel wall imaging (HR VW-MRI) to analyze the relationship between hemodynamics and the degree of stenosis, as well as the morphological characteristics of plaques.Methods:The study was a cross-sectional study. A total of 24 patients with middle cerebral artery(MCA) M1 atherosclerotic stenosis and 10 age and sex matched healthy controls (HC group) were prospectively recruited from September 2018 to March 2021 at Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University. All subjects underwent MRI examination. The hemodynamic of MCA were collected by 4D Flow MRI, and the hemodynamic parameters of proximal and distal MCA stenosis were calculated by blood flow post-processing software, including average blood flow rate (FR avg), average blood flow velocity (V avg), peak blood flow velocity (V pk), time average wall shear stress (TAWSS), minimum wall shear stress (WSS min) and oscillatory shear index (OSI). The differences in hemodynamic parameters among the proximal and distal ends of MCA stenosis and the HC group were compared using one-way ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis H test. The stenosis rate and characteristics of MCA plaque were analyzed by HR VW-MRI, including remodeling index (RI), normalized wall index (NWI) and plaque length. Pearson or Spearman correlation analysis was used to explore the correlation between stenosis rate and hemodynamic parameters. Taking the stenosis rate as the control variable, partial correlation analysis was used to explore the correlation between plaque morphological characteristics and hemodynamic parameters. Results:There were statistically significant differences in FR avg, V avg, V pk, TAWSS, OSI, WSS min among the proximal and distal stenosis of MCA and HC groups ( P<0.05). The proximal end of the MCA stenosis had significantly higher FR avg, V avg, TAWSS and WSS min than those of the distal end of the stenosis ( P<0.01). The FR avg, V avg, V pk, TAWSS, and WSS min in the distal end of MCA stenosis were lower than those in the HC group, while the OSI was higher than that in the HC group ( P<0.01). The correlation analysis results showed that the MCA proximal V pk ( r=-0.425, P=0.027) and distal V pk ( r=-0.538, P=0.004) were negatively correlated with the diameter stenosis rate. When the stenosis rate was taken as the control factor, in the MCA proximal stenosis, V avg ( r=0.553, P=0.003), TAWSS ( r=0.543, P=0.004) and WSS min ( r=0.547, P=0.004) were positively correlated with RI, proximal OSI was negatively correlated with RI ( r=-0.492, P=0.011), and was positively correlated with the plaque length ( r=0.437, P=0.026). At the distal end of the stenosis, V pk was negatively correlated with NWI ( r=-0.556, P=0.003), OSI was negatively correlated with RI ( r=-0.511, P=0.008), NWI ( r=-0.390, P=0.049). TAWSS was positively correlated with RI ( r=0.393, P=0.047). Conclusions:The 4D Flow MRI demonstrates characteristic hemodynamic changes in the proximal and distal ends of the stenotic MCA. The local hemodynamic characteristics of the stenotic MCA are correlated with plaque morphological parameters, including lumen stenosis, plaque load, and RI. It suggests an interaction between the occurrence and development of MCA plaque and local hemodynamic changes.
4.Gray Matter Volume Changes in Migraine Patients Using 7T Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Voxel-Based Morphometry
Xun PEI ; Yanliang MEI ; Xue ZHANG ; Yu'an LI ; Tong CHEN ; Yuanbin ZHAO ; Yonggang WANG ; Binbin SUI
Chinese Journal of Medical Imaging 2025;33(5):461-466
Purpose To explore the characteristics of gray matter(GM)volume changes in migraine patients using 7T MRI and voxel-based morphometry(VBM).Materials and Methods This prospective study enrolled 30 migraine patients and 41 age-and gender-matched healthy controls from Beijing Tiantan Hospital,Capital Medical University between November 2023 and November 2024.All participants underwent 7T MRI with 3D T1-weighted magnetization-prepared two rapid gradient-echo(MP2RAGE)sequences for structural brain imaging.VBM analysis was performed to quantify GM,white matter,cerebrospinal fluid and total brain volumes,followed by calculations of their relative percentages.The difference in GM volume between the two groups was compared to identify brain regions with characteristic GM volume changes in migraine patients.And the correlation between these characteristic GM volume alterations and clinical scales was analyzed.Results Migraine patients exhibited significantly lower total GM volume compared to healthy controls(t=2.096,P=0.040),while no group differences were observed in white matter or cerebrospinal fluid volumes(t=0.980,0.151;P=0.330,0.880).VBM analysis revealed reduced GM volume in the left orbitofrontal cortex(t=4.301,P=0.022),left hippocampus(t=5.226,P=0.006)and left parahippocampal gyrus(t=3.960,P=0.040)in the migraine group.Negative correlations were identified between:left orbitofrontal cortex GM volume and headache duration(r=-0.506,P=0.008),left hippocampal GM volume and patient health questionnaire-9 scores(r=-0.620,P=0.003),and left parahippocampal GM volume and visual analogue scale scores(r=-0.449,P=0.019).Conclusion VBM analysis based on 7T MP2RAGE data demonstrates characteristic GM volume reductions in the left orbitofrontal cortex,left hippocampus and left parahippocampal gyrus in migraine patients,with these structural alterations significantly correlate with depressive symptoms and headache burden.The observed microstructural abnormalities may reflect underlying pathophysiological mechanisms related to pain processing,emotional regulation and long-term disease burden in migraine.
5.A study on the correlation between regional hemodynamics and plaque morphology of middle cerebral artery in atherosclerotic stenosis using four-dimensional flow MRI
Yuanbin ZHAO ; Xiaoyan BAI ; Chao ZHANG ; Xue ZHANG ; Tong CHEN ; Xun PEI ; Yuehua PU ; Ligang SONG ; Binbin SUI
Chinese Journal of Radiology 2025;59(3):261-268
Objective:To explore the hemodynamic characteristics of the middle cerebral artery (MCA) in atherosclerotic stenosis using four-dimensional flow (4D Flow) MRI, and combining high-resolution magnetic resonance vessel wall imaging (HR VW-MRI) to analyze the relationship between hemodynamics and the degree of stenosis, as well as the morphological characteristics of plaques.Methods:The study was a cross-sectional study. A total of 24 patients with middle cerebral artery(MCA) M1 atherosclerotic stenosis and 10 age and sex matched healthy controls (HC group) were prospectively recruited from September 2018 to March 2021 at Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University. All subjects underwent MRI examination. The hemodynamic of MCA were collected by 4D Flow MRI, and the hemodynamic parameters of proximal and distal MCA stenosis were calculated by blood flow post-processing software, including average blood flow rate (FR avg), average blood flow velocity (V avg), peak blood flow velocity (V pk), time average wall shear stress (TAWSS), minimum wall shear stress (WSS min) and oscillatory shear index (OSI). The differences in hemodynamic parameters among the proximal and distal ends of MCA stenosis and the HC group were compared using one-way ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis H test. The stenosis rate and characteristics of MCA plaque were analyzed by HR VW-MRI, including remodeling index (RI), normalized wall index (NWI) and plaque length. Pearson or Spearman correlation analysis was used to explore the correlation between stenosis rate and hemodynamic parameters. Taking the stenosis rate as the control variable, partial correlation analysis was used to explore the correlation between plaque morphological characteristics and hemodynamic parameters. Results:There were statistically significant differences in FR avg, V avg, V pk, TAWSS, OSI, WSS min among the proximal and distal stenosis of MCA and HC groups ( P<0.05). The proximal end of the MCA stenosis had significantly higher FR avg, V avg, TAWSS and WSS min than those of the distal end of the stenosis ( P<0.01). The FR avg, V avg, V pk, TAWSS, and WSS min in the distal end of MCA stenosis were lower than those in the HC group, while the OSI was higher than that in the HC group ( P<0.01). The correlation analysis results showed that the MCA proximal V pk ( r=-0.425, P=0.027) and distal V pk ( r=-0.538, P=0.004) were negatively correlated with the diameter stenosis rate. When the stenosis rate was taken as the control factor, in the MCA proximal stenosis, V avg ( r=0.553, P=0.003), TAWSS ( r=0.543, P=0.004) and WSS min ( r=0.547, P=0.004) were positively correlated with RI, proximal OSI was negatively correlated with RI ( r=-0.492, P=0.011), and was positively correlated with the plaque length ( r=0.437, P=0.026). At the distal end of the stenosis, V pk was negatively correlated with NWI ( r=-0.556, P=0.003), OSI was negatively correlated with RI ( r=-0.511, P=0.008), NWI ( r=-0.390, P=0.049). TAWSS was positively correlated with RI ( r=0.393, P=0.047). Conclusions:The 4D Flow MRI demonstrates characteristic hemodynamic changes in the proximal and distal ends of the stenotic MCA. The local hemodynamic characteristics of the stenotic MCA are correlated with plaque morphological parameters, including lumen stenosis, plaque load, and RI. It suggests an interaction between the occurrence and development of MCA plaque and local hemodynamic changes.
6.Comparison of initiation of antihypertensive therapy strategies for primary preven-tion of cardiovascular diseases in Chinese population:A decision-analytic Markov modelling study
Tianjing ZHOU ; Qiuping LIU ; Minglu ZHANG ; Xiaofei LIU ; Jiali KANG ; Peng SHEN ; Hongbo LIN ; Xun TANG ; Pei GAO
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2024;56(3):441-447
Objective:To evaluate the health benefits and intervention efficiency of different strategies of initiating antihypertensive therapy for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases in a community-based Chinese population from the Chinese electronic health records research in Yinzhou(CHERRY)study.Methods:A decision-analytic Markov model was used to simulate and compare different antihy-pertensive initiation strategies,including:Strategy 1,initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with systolic blood pressure(SBP)≥140 mmHg(2020 Chinese guideline on the primary preven-tion of cardiovascular diseases);Strategy 2,initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with SBP≥130 mmHg;Strategy 3,initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with SBP ≥140 mmHg,or with SBP between 130 and 140 mmHg and at high risk of cardiovascular diseases(2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline for the prevention,detection,evaluation,and management of high blood pressure in adults);Strategy 4,initiation of antihypertensive therapy for Chinese adults with SBP≥ 160 mmHg,or with SBP between 140 and 160 mmHg and at high risk of car-diovascular diseases(2019 United Kingdom National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guideline for the hypertension in adults:Diagnosis and management).The high 10-year cardiovascular risk was de-fined as the predicted risk over 10%based on the 2019 World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts.Different strategies were simulated by the Markov model for ten years(cycles),with parame-ters mainly from the CHERRY study or published literature.After ten cycles of simulation,the numbers of quality-adjusted life years(QALY),cardiovascular events and all-cause deaths were calculated to evaluate the health benefits of each strategy,and the numbers needed to treat(NNT)for each cardiovas-cular event or all-cause death could be prevented were calculated to assess the intervention efficiency.One-way sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of incidence rates of cardiovascular disease and probabilis-tic sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of hazard ratios of interventions were conducted.Results:A to-tal of 213 987 Chinese adults aged 35-79 years without cardiovascular diseases were included.Com-pared with strategy 1,the number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented in strategy 2 increased by 666(95%UI:334-975),while the NNT per cardiovascular event prevented increased by 10(95%UI:7-20).In contrast to strategy 1,the number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented in strategy 3 increased by 388(95%UI:194-569),and the NNT per cardiovascular event prevented decreased by 6(95%UI:4-12),suggesting that strategy 3 had better health benefits and intervention efficiency.Compared to strategy 1,although the number of cardiovascular events that could be prevented decreased by 193(95%UI:98-281)in strategy 4,the NNT per cardiovascular event prevented decreased by 18(95%UI:13-37)with better efficiency.The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses.Conclusion:When initiating antihypertensive therapy in an economically developed area of China,the strategy combined with cardiovascular risk assessment is more efficient than those purely based on the SBP threshold.The cardiovascular risk assessment strategy with different SBP thresholds is suggested to balance health benefits and intervention efficiency in diverse populations.
7.Application of discrete event simulation model in analysis on cost-effectiveness of epidemiology screening.
Jia Min WANG ; Qiu Ping LIU ; Chao GONG ; Ming Lu ZHANG ; Pei GAO ; Xun TANG ; Yong Hua HU
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology 2023;44(3):463-469
Discrete event simulation (DES) model is based on individual data, by which discrete events over time are simulated to reflect disease progression. The effects of individual characteristics on disease progression could be considered in the DES model. Moreover, unlike state-transition models, DES model without setting of fixed cycle can contribute to more accurate estimation of event time, especially in the evaluation of the long-term effectiveness of screening strategies for complex diseases in which time dimension needs to be considered. This article introduces the general principles, construction steps, analytic methods and other relevant issues of the DES model. Based on a research case of estimating the cost-effectiveness of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms in women aged 65 years and above in the United Kingdom, key points in applications of the DES model in analysis on effectiveness of complex disease screening are discussed in detail, including model construction and analysis and interpretation of the results. DES model can predict occurring time of discrete events accurately by establishing the distribution function of their occurring time and is increasingly used to evaluate the screening strategies for complex diseases in which time dimension needs to be considered. In the construction of DES model, it is necessary to pay close attention to the clear presentation of model structure and simulation process and follow the relevant reporting specification to conduct cost-effectiveness analysis to ensure the transparency and repeatability of the research.
Humans
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Female
;
Cost-Benefit Analysis
;
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
;
Disease Progression
8.Image-guided Strategy of Intensity-modulated Radiotherapy in Helical Tomography for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma
Meng-xue HE ; Pei-xun XU ; Hong HUANG ; Xuan-guang CHEN ; Hui-lang HE ; Zi-xian ZHANG ; Hui LIU ; Sen-kui XU ; Wen-yan YAO
Journal of Sun Yat-sen University(Medical Sciences) 2023;44(1):131-137
ObjectiveThis study aimed to analyze the difference in setup error before and after correction of systematic error. To determine the most appropriate image-guided strategy during HT treatment, we use different scanning ranges and image-guidance frequencies in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treated with helical tomotherapy (HT). MethodsFifteen patients with NPC who received HT treatment in Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center from October 2019 to February 2020 were selected. Megavoltage computed tomography (MVCT) scanning was performed before each treatment. After five times of radiotherapy, system-error correction was performed to adjust the setup center. The setup errors before and after the correction of systematic errors, as well as the setup errors of different scanning ranges and different scanning frequencies, were collected for analysis and comparison. ResultsWhen comparing the setup errors before and after the correction of systematic error, the differences in setup errors in the left–right (LR), superior–inferior (SI), and anterior–posterior (AP) directions were statistically significant (P<0.05).The different scanning ranges of "nasopharynx + neck" and "nasopharynx" were compared, and a statistically significant difference was found in yaw rotational errors (P<0.05). In the comparison of daily and weekly scan frequency after system-error correction, a significant difference was found in AP direction (P<0.05). ConclusionDuring radiotherapy for NPC, the systematic error can be corrected according to the first five setup errors, and then small-scale scanning was selected for image-guided radiotherapy every day.
9.Overcoming chemoresistance in non-angiogenic colorectal cancer by metformin via inhibiting endothelial apoptosis and vascular immaturity
Guang-Yue LI ; Shu-Jing ZHANG ; Dong XUE ; Yue-Qi FENG ; Yan LI ; Xun HUANG ; Qiang CUI ; Bo WANG ; Jun FENG ; Tao BAO ; Pei-Jun LIU ; Shao-Ying LU ; Ji-Chang WANG
Journal of Pharmaceutical Analysis 2023;13(3):262-275
The development of chemoresistance which results in a poor prognosis often renders current treatments for colorectal cancer(CRC).In this study,we identified reduced microvessel density(MVD)and vascular immaturity resulting from endothelial apoptosis as therapeutic targets for overcoming chemoresistance.We focused on the effect of metformin on MVD,vascular maturity,and endothelial apoptosis of CRCs with a non-angiogenic phenotype,and further investigated its effect in overcoming chemoresistance.In situ transplanted cancer models were established to compare MVD,endothelial apoptosis and vascular maturity,and function in tumors from metformin-and vehicle-treated mice.An in vitro co-culture system was used to observe the effects of metformin on tumor cell-induced endothelial apoptosis.Transcriptome sequencing was performed for genetic screening.Non-angiogenic CRC developed inde-pendently of angiogenesis and was characterized by vascular leakage,immaturity,reduced MVD,and non-hypoxia.This phenomenon had also been observed in human CRC.Furthermore,non-angiogenic CRCs showed a worse response to chemotherapeutic drugs in vivo than in vitro.By suppressing endo-thelial apoptosis,metformin sensitized non-angiogenic CRCs to chemo-drugs via elevation of MVD and improvement of vascular maturity.Further results showed that endothelial apoptosis was induced by tumor cells via activation of caspase signaling,which was abrogated by metformin administration.These findings provide pre-clinical evidence for the involvement of endothelial apoptosis and subsequent vascular immaturity in the chemoresistance of non-angiogenic CRC.By suppressing endothelial apoptosis,metformin restores vascular maturity and function and sensitizes CRC to chemotherapeutic drugs via a vascular mechanism.
10.Comparison of aspirin treatment strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases: A decision-analytic Markov modelling study.
Ming Lu ZHANG ; Qiu Ping LIU ; Chao GONG ; Jia Min WANG ; Tian Jing ZHOU ; Xiao Fei LIU ; Peng SHEN ; Hong Bo LIN ; Xun TANG ; Pei GAO
Journal of Peking University(Health Sciences) 2023;55(3):480-487
OBJECTIVE:
To compare the expected population impact of benefit and risk of aspirin treatment strategies for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases recommended by different guidelines in the Chinese Electronic Health Records Research in Yinzhou (CHERRY) study.
METHODS:
A decision-analytic Markov model was used to simulate and compare different strategies of aspirin treatment, including: Strategy ①: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-69 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk, recommended by the 2020 Chinese Guideline on the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases; Strategy ②: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-59 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk, recommended by the 2022 United States Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement on Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease; Strategy ③: Aspirin treatment for Chinese adults aged 40-69 years with a high 10-year cardiovascular risk and blood pressure well-controlled (< 150/90 mmHg), recommended by the 2019 Guideline on the Assessment and Management of Cardio-vascular Risk in China. The high 10-year cardiovascular risk was defined as the 10-year predicted risk over 10% based on the 2019 World Health Organization non-laboratory model. The Markov model simulated different strategies for ten years (cycles) with parameters mainly from the CHERRY study or published literature. Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and the number needed to treat (NNT) for each ischemic event (including myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke) were calculated to assess the effectiveness of the different strategies. The number needed to harm (NNH) for each bleeding event (including hemorrhagic stroke and gastrointestinal bleeding) was calculated to assess the safety. The NNT for each net benefit (i.e., the difference of the number of ischemic events could be prevented and the number of bleeding events would be added) was also calculated. One-way sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of the incidence rate of cardiovascular diseases and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on the uncertainty of hazard ratios of interventions were conducted.
RESULTS:
A total of 212 153 Chinese adults, were included in this study. The number of people who were recommended for aspirin treatment Strategies ①-③ was 34 235, 2 813, and 25 111, respectively. The Strategy ③ could gain the most QALY of 403 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 222-511] years. Compared with Strategy ①, Strategy ③ had similar efficiency but better safety, with the extra NNT of 4 (95%UI: 3-4) and NNH of 39 (95%UI: 19-132). The NNT per net benefit was 131 (95%UI: 102-239) for Strategy ①, 256 (95%UI: 181-737) for Strategy ②, and 132 (95%UI: 104-232) for Strategy ③, making Strategy ③ the most favorable option with a better QALY and safety, along with similar efficiency in terms of net benefit. The results were consistent in the sensitivity analyses.
CONCLUSION
The aspirin treatment strategies recommended by the updated guidelines on the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases showed a net benefit for high-risk Chinese adults from developed areas. However, to balance effectiveness and safety, aspirin is suggested to be used for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases with consideration for blood pressure control, resulting in better intervention efficiency.
Adult
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Humans
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Aspirin/therapeutic use*
;
Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology*
;
Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage
;
Myocardial Infarction/prevention & control*
;
Primary Prevention/methods*
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged

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