OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for the occurrence of the demora-lization syndrome in patients with oral cancer and provide a scientific basis for the prevention of this syndrome in patients with oral cancer and the development of personalized care programs. METHODS: A total of 486 patients with oral cancer in West China Hospital of Stomatology of Sichuan University and Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from 2024 March to July were selected by convenience sampling. We integrated clinical data and evidence from previous studies to identify the key variables affecting the demoralization syndrome in patients with oral cancer. The 486 patients were divided into a training set and a validation set in an 8∶2 ratio. A clinical risk prediction model was established based on the individual data of 365 patients in the development cohort. Through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, a moderate to severe risk prediction model of demoralization syndrome in oral cancer was constructed, and a clinical machine-learning nomogram was constructed. Bootstrap resampling was used for internal validation. The data of 121 patients in the validation cohort were externally validated. RESULTS: The incidence of the demoralization syndrome in patients with oral cancer was 405 cases (83.3%), of which 279 cases (57.4%) were mild, 176 cases (36.2%) were moderate, and 31 cases (6.4%) were severe. The core model, including patient education level, disease understanding, and MDASI-HN score, was used to predict the risk of outcome. Internal validation of the model yielded C statistic of 0.783 6 (95% CI: 0.78-0.87), beta of 0.843 4, and calibration intercept of -0.040 6. Through external validation, the validation set C statistic was 0.80 (95%CI: 0.71-0.87), beta was 0.80, and calibration intercept was -0.08. CONCLUSIONS Our risk prediction mo-del of the demoralization syndrome in patients with oral cancer performed robustly in validation cohorts of different nur-sing environments. The model has good correction and good discrimination and can be used as an evaluation and prediction item at admission.
Humans ; Mouth Neoplasms/complications* ; Male ; Female ; Nomograms ; Middle Aged ; Syndrome ; Aged ; Adult ; Risk Factors ; Risk Assessment ; Machine Learning

Objective To analyze the risk factors for prolonged length of hospital stay in patients with peritoneal dialysis associated peritonitis(PDAP)and construct a nomogram based on Logistic regression model.Methods A retrospective study was conducted on patients with PDAP who were hospitalized at the Affiliated Hospital of Jiangsu University from January 2013 to December 2023.Using the 75th percentile of hospitalization time as the cutoff(>21 days),the patients were divided into prolonged length of hospital stay group and normal length of hospital stay group.Clinical data were compared between the two groups.Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the risk factors for prolonged hospital stay in PDAP patients and to construct a nomogram.Results A total of 131 PDAP patients were included in this study,including 40 cases in prolonged length of hospital stay group and 91 cases in normal length of hospital stay group.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that Gram-negative bacteria detected in ascites(OR=6.012,95% CI=1.878-19.248,P=0.003)and elevated platelet count(OR=1.010,95% CI=1.005-1.015,P<0.001)were independent risk factors for prolonged length of hospital stay,while elevated serum chloride(OR=0.885,95% CI=0.802-0.978,P=0.016)was a protective factor.Based on the above three indicators,a nomogram was constructed.The multivariate Logistic regression model showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)of 0.755,with an internal validation AUC of 0.727 using the Bootstrap method.The calibration curve indicated that the predicted probability was consistent with the actual probability.The decision curve showed that the model was clinically applicable when the threshold probabilities were 9%-10%,13% and 18%-92%.Conclusion A nomogram,based on the detection of gram-negative bacteria in ascites,platelet count and serum chloride,was helpful for clinical screening PADP patients at risk for prolonged length of hospital stay,and can provide a basis for optimizing clinical decision-making.
Humans ; Nomograms ; Risk Factors ; Peritoneal Dialysis/adverse effects* ; Retrospective Studies ; Length of Stay ; Peritonitis/etiology* ; Logistic Models ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Aged

Objective To identify disulfidptosis-related gene(DRG)in acute myocardial infarction(AMI)by bioinformatics,analyze the molecular pattern of DRGs in AMI,and construct a DRGs-related prediction model.Methods AMI-related datasets were downloaded from the Gene Expression Omnibus database,and DRGs with differential expression were screened in AMI.CIBERSORT method was used to analyze the immune infiltration.Based on the differentially expressed DRGs,the AMI patients were classified into distinct subtypes via consensus clustering,followed by immune infiltration analysis,differential expression analysis,gene ontology and Kyoto encyclopedia of genes and genomes enrichment analysis,and gene set variation analysis.Weighted gene co-expression network analysis(WGCNA)was then performed to construct subtype-associated modules and identify hub genes.Finally,least absolute shrinkage and selection operator,random forest,and support vector machine-recursive feature elimination were used to screen feature genes to construct a DRGs-related prediction model.The model's diagnostic efficacy was evaluated by nomogram and receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis,followed by external validation.Results Nine differentially expressed DRGs were identified between AMI patients and controls.Based on the expression levels of these nine DRGs,AMI patients were divided into two DRGs subtypes,C1 and C2.Increased infiltration of monocytes,M0 macrophages,and neutrophils was observed in AMI patients and C1 subtype(all P<0.05),indicating a close correlation between DRGs and immune cells.There were 257 differentially expressed genes between the C1 and C2 subtypes,which were related to biological processes such as myeloid leukocyte activation and positive regulation of cytokines.Fcγ receptor-mediated phagocytosis and NOD-like receptor signaling pathway activity were enhanced in C1 subtype.WGCNA analysis suggested that the brown module exhibited the strongest correlation with DRG subtypes(r=0.67),from which 23 differentially expressed genes were identified.The feature genes screened by three machine learning methods were interpolated to obtain a DRGs-related prediction model consisting of three genes(AQP9,F5 and PYGL).Nomogram and ROC curves(AUC_train=0.891,AUC_test=0.840)showed good diagnostic efficacy.Conclusions DRGs were closely related to the occurrence and progression of AMI.The DRGs-related prediction model consisting of AQP9,F5 and PYGL may provide targets for the diagnosis and personalized treatment of AMI.
Humans ; Myocardial Infarction/diagnosis* ; Transcriptome ; Computational Biology ; Gene Expression Profiling ; ROC Curve ; Gene Regulatory Networks ; Nomograms ; Disulfidptosis

Objective To investigate the value of ultrasonographic features combined with immunohistochemistry in predicting axillary lymph node metastasis in middle-aged women with breast cancer.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 827 middle-aged female breast cancer patients who underwent surgical treatment at the Affiliated Hospital of Chengde Medical University from June 2017 to June 2023.Ultrasonographic and immunohistochemical information was collected,and the patients were randomly allocated into a training set(579 patients)and a validation set(248 patients).Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify ultrasonographic and immunohistochemical risk factors associated with axillary lymph node metastasis in these patients,and a nomogram model was developed.Receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration curves were established to evaluate the performance of the nomogram model,and clinical decision curves were built to assess the clinical value of the model.Results The maximum diameter,morphology,boundary,calcification,and expression of human epidermal growth facor receptor 2 and Ki-67 in breast cancer lesions were identified as risk factors for predicting axillary lymph node metastasis in middle-aged women.The areas under the curve of the nomogram model on the training and validation sets were 0.747(0.707-0.787)and 0.714(0.647-0.780),respectively.Calibration curves and clinical decision curves indicated good consistency and performance of the model.Conclusion The nomogram model constructed based on ultrasonographic features and immunohistochemistry of the primary breast cancer lesion demonstrates high value in predicting axillary lymph node metastasis in middle-aged women with breast cancer.
Humans ; Female ; Breast Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging* ; Middle Aged ; Lymphatic Metastasis/diagnostic imaging* ; Axilla ; Retrospective Studies ; Nomograms ; Ultrasonography ; Immunohistochemistry ; Lymph Nodes/diagnostic imaging* ; Risk Factors ; Ki-67 Antigen

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the risk factors of acute spinal cord injury complicated with respiratory dysfunction, and to construct the clinical prediction model of acute spinal cord injury complicated with respiratory dysfunction. METHODS: Continuous 170 cases of acute spinal cord injury treated from April 2019 to October 2022 were retrospectively collected, and clinical data were uniformly collected. Patients were divided into respiratory dysfunction group 30 cases and non-respiratory dysfunction group 140 cases according to whether they had respiratory dysfunction during treatment. The predictive factors of acute spinal cord injury complicated with respiratory dysfunction were screened by Lasso analysis, and the risk factors of acute spinal cord injury complicated with respiratory dysfunction were screened by multivariate Logistic regression analysis. R(R4.2.1) software was used to establish a nomogram risk warning model for predicting acute spinal cord injury complicated with respiratory dysfunction, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the model fit. Finally, area under receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis(DCA) were used to evaluate the differentiation, calibration and clinical impact of the model. RESULTS: The incidence of respiratory dysfunction in 170 patients was 17.65%. Lasso regression analysis selected age, residence, marital status, smoking, hypertension, degree of paralysis, spinal cord injury plane, multiple injuries, spinal cord fracture and dislocation, and ASIA grade as the influencing factors. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age, smoking, degree of paralysis, level of spinal cord injury, spinal cord injury of fracture and dislocation, and ASIA grade were risk factors for acute spinal cord injury complicated with respiratory dysfunction. The prediction model of acute spinal cord injury complicated with respiratory dysfunction was established by Hosmer-Lemeshow test, χ²=5.830, P=0.67. The AUC value of the model was 0.912. DCA analysis showed that the net benefit value of nomogram prediction of acute spinal cord injury complicated with respiratory dysfunction was higher when threshold probability ranged from 1% to 100%. CONCLUSION This column chart can help identify the risk of acute spinal cord injury complicated with respiratory dysfunction in early clinical stage, facilitate early clinical decision-making and intervention, and has important guiding significance for optimizing clinical efficacy and improving prognosis of patients. It is expected to improve and verify this model with larger samples and multi-center in the future.
Humans ; Spinal Cord Injuries/complications* ; Nomograms ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; Aged ; Respiration Disorders/etiology* ; Adolescent ; Logistic Models

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the factors influencing the occurrence of C5 nerve root palsy after posterior approach cervical single-door enlargement kyphoplasty and construct a Nomogram-related prediction model. METHODS: A total of 255 patients with cervical spondylotic myelopathy who underwent posterior cervical single-door laminoplasty between May 2019 and February 2023 were selected as the research subjects. They were divided into the occurrence group (45 patients) and the non-occurrence group (210 patients) based on whether C₅ nerve root palsy occurred after the operation. The general data of patients in the two groups were compared. The predictive value of statistically significant continuous variables was analyzed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The factors influencing patients' postoperative C₅ nerve root palsy were analyzed using Logistic regression analysis. And the clinical efficacy of Nomogram model was assessed using decision curve analysis. RESULTS: Compared with the non-occurrence group, the patients in the occurrence group had a shorter disease duration, higher preoperative cervical curvature and spinal cord posterior displacement distance, and higher percentage of positive pathological reflexes, foraminal stenosis, and ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament.The difference was statistically significant P<0.05. The area under the curve (AUC) for cervical curvature and posterior displacement of the spinal cord prior to surgery were 0.699 and 0.697, respectively. The optimal cutoff values were determined to be 21° and 3 mm, with statistically significant differences (P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that abnormal electromyography OR=6.693, 95%CI(2.754, 16.264), P<0.001;preoperative cervical curvature OR=2.254, 95%CI(1.215, 2.920), P=0.003;foraminal stenosis OR=3.049, 95%CI(1.234, 7.530), P=0.016;ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament OR=2.646, 95% CI(1.015, 6.899), P=0.047;and the distance of spinal cord posterior displacement OR=0.298, 95% CI(0.173, 0.513), P<0.001;which were all related factors influencing postoperative C₅ nerve root palsy in patients with this disease. The C-index of the Nomogram model for predicting the risk of postoperative C₅ nerve root palsy in patients was 0.861, with a 95% confidence interval of (0.795, 0.927). The risk threshold of this model was determined to be greater than 0.17. CONCLUSION Abnormal electromyography, preoperative cervical curvature, intervertebral foramen stenosis, ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament, and the degree of posterior displacement of the spinal cord are all significant contributing factors to C₅ nerve root palsy following posterior cervical single-door laminoplasty. A prediction model developed based on these factors demonstrates enhanced accuracy and substantial clinical application value.
Humans ; Female ; Nomograms ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Aged ; Kyphoplasty/adverse effects* ; Cervical Vertebrae/surgery* ; Spinal Nerve Roots ; Adult ; Postoperative Complications/etiology* ; Paralysis/etiology*

PURPOSE: The rate of complications among patients undergoing surgery has increased due to infection with SARS-CoV-2 and other variants of concern. However, Omicron has shown decreased pathogenicity, raising questions about the risk of postoperative complications among patients who are infected with this variant. This study aimed to investigate complications and related factors among patients with recent Omicron infection prior to undergoing orthopedic surgery. METHODS: A historical control study was conducted. Data were collected from all patients who underwent surgery during 2 distinct periods: (1) between Dec 12, 2022 and Jan 31, 2023 (COVID-19 positive group), (2) between Dec 12, 2021 and Jan 31, 2022 (COVID-19 negative control group). The patients were at least 18 years old. Patients who received conservative treatment after admission or had high-risk diseases or special circumstances (use of anticoagulants before surgery) were excluded from the study. The study outcomes were the total complication rate and related factors. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to identify related factors, and odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to assess the impact of COVID-19 infection on complications. RESULTS: In the analysis, a total of 847 patients who underwent surgery were included, with 275 of these patients testing positive for COVID-19 and 572 testing negative. The COVID-19-positive group had a significantly higher rate of total complications (11.27%) than the control group (4.90%, p < 0.001). After adjusting for relevant factors, the OR was 3.08 (95% CI: 1.45-6.53). Patients who were diagnosed with COVID-19 at 3-4 weeks (OR = 0.20 (95% CI: 0.06-0.59), p = 0.005), 5-6 weeks (OR = 0.16 (95% CI: 0.04-0.59), p = 0.010), or ≥7 weeks (OR = 0.26 (95% CI: 0.06-1.02), p = 0.069) prior to surgery had a lower risk of complications than those who were diagnosed at 0-2 weeks prior to surgery. Seven factors (age, indications for surgery, time of operation, time of COVID-19 diagnosis prior to surgery, C-reactive protein levels, alanine transaminase levels, and aspartate aminotransferase levels) were found to be associated with complications; thus, these factors were used to create a nomogram. CONCLUSION Omicron continues to be a significant factor in the incidence of postoperative complications among patients undergoing orthopedic surgery. By identifying the factors associated with these complications, we can determine the optimal surgical timing, provide more accurate prognostic information, and offer appropriate consultation for orthopedic surgery patients who have been infected with Omicron.
Humans ; COVID-19/complications* ; Male ; Female ; Middle Aged ; Postoperative Complications/epidemiology* ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Orthopedic Procedures/adverse effects* ; Aged ; Nomograms ; Adult ; Retrospective Studies ; Risk Factors

PURPOSE: To analyze risk factors for severe trauma and establish a nomogram for early risk prediction, to improve the early identification of severe trauma. METHODS: This study was conducted on the patients treated in 81 trauma treatment institutions in Gansu province from 2020 to 2022. Patients were grouped by year, with 5364 patients from 2020 to 2021 as the training set and 1094 newly admitted patients in 2020 as the external validation set. Based on the injury severity score (ISS), patients in the training set were classified into 2 subgroups of the severe trauma group (n = 478, ISS scores ≥25) and the non-severe trauma group (n = 4886, ISS scores <25). Univariate and binary logistic regression analyses were employed to identify independent risk factors for severe trauma. Subsequently, a predictive model was developed using the R software environment. Furthermore, the model was subjected to internal and external validation via the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. RESULTS: In total, 6458 trauma patients were included in this study. Initially, this study identified several independent risk factors for severe trauma, including multiple traumatic injuries (polytrauma), external hemorrhage, elevated shock index, elevated respiratory rate, decreased peripheral oxygen saturation, and decreased Glasgow coma scale score (all p < 0.05). For internal validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.914, with the sensitivity and specificity of 88.4% and 87.6%, respectively; while for external validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.936, with the sensitivity and specificity of 84.6% and 93.7%, respectively. In addition, a good model fitting was observed through the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curve analysis (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION This study establishes a nomogram for early risk prediction of severe trauma, which is suitable for primary healthcare institutions in underdeveloped western China. It facilitates early triage and quantitative assessment of trauma severity by clinicians prior to clinical interventions.
Humans ; Nomograms ; Male ; Female ; Wounds and Injuries/diagnosis* ; Risk Factors ; Middle Aged ; Adult ; Injury Severity Score ; Risk Assessment ; ROC Curve ; Aged ; Logistic Models ; China ; Glasgow Coma Scale

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the risk factors for plastic bronchitis (PB) in children with macrolide-unresponsive Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MUMPP) and to establish a nomogram prediction model. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 178 children with MUMPP who underwent bronchoscopy from January to December 2023. According to the presence or absence of PB, the children were divided into a PB group (49 children) and a non-PB group (129 children). The predictive factors for the development of PB in children with MUMPP were analyzed, and a nomogram prediction model was established. The model was assessed in terms of discriminatory ability, accuracy, and clinical effectiveness. RESULTS: The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that older age and higher levels of lactate dehydrogenase and fibrinogen were closely associated with the development of PB in children with MUMPP (P<0.05). A nomogram model established based on these factors had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.733 (95%CI: 0.651-0.816, P<0.001) and showed a good discriminatory ability. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test indicated that the predictive model had a good degree of fit (P>0.05), and the decision curve analysis showed that the model had a good clinical application value. CONCLUSIONS The risk nomogram model established based on age and lactate dehydrogenase and fibrinogen levels has good discriminatory ability, accuracy, and predictive efficacy for predicting the development of PB in children with MUMPP.
Retrospective Studies ; Risk Factors ; Nomograms ; Mycoplasma pneumoniae/isolation & purification* ; Pneumonia, Mycoplasma/microbiology* ; Bronchitis/microbiology* ; Macrolides/therapeutic use* ; Drug Resistance, Bacterial ; Bronchoscopy ; Area Under Curve ; ROC Curve ; Fibrinogen/analysis* ; Age Factors ; Humans ; Male ; Female ; Infant ; Child, Preschool ; Child ; Adolescent ; L-Lactate Dehydrogenase/blood*

OBJECTIVES: To explore the predictive factors for hemodynamically significant patent ductus arteriosus (hsPDA) in preterm infants and to construct a nomogram prediction model for hsPDA occurrence in this population. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of preterm infants with gestational age <32 weeks diagnosed with patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) who were delivered at Nanjing Women and Children's Healthcare Hospital from January 2020 to December 2022. The subjects were divided into an hsPDA group (52 cases) and a non-hsPDA group (176 cases) based on the presence of hsPDA. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to screen predictive variables regarding the general information of the infants at birth, maternal pregnancy and delivery conditions, and relevant indicators during hospitalization. A nomogram prediction model for hsPDA occurrence was constructed using R software in preterm infants. Internal validation was performed using the Bootstrap method. Finally, the predictive model was evaluated for calibration, discrimination ability, and clinical utility. RESULTS: Multivariate regression analysis showed that the ratio of the left atrium to aorta diameter (LA/AO), mode of delivery (vaginal), and duration of mechanical ventilation were independent predictive factors for hsPDA in preterm infants (P<0.05). Based on the results of univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis, variables used to construct the nomogram prediction model for hsPDA risk included: LA/AO ratio, mode of delivery (vaginal), duration of mechanical ventilation, 5-minute Apgar score, and the presence of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome requiring surfactant therapy. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for this model was 0.876 (95%CI: 0.824-0.927), and the calibrated curve was close to the ideal reference line, indicating good calibration. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test demonstrated that the model fit well, and the clinical decision curve was above the extreme curves. CONCLUSIONS The nomogram prediction model, constructed using five variables (LA/AO ratio, vaginal delivery, duration of mechanical ventilation, 5-minute Apgar score, and the presence of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome requiring surfactant therapy), has reference significance for predicting the occurrence of hsPDA in preterm infants and provides valuable guidance for the early clinical identification of hsPDA.
Humans ; Ductus Arteriosus, Patent/etiology* ; Nomograms ; Female ; Infant, Newborn ; Infant, Premature ; Retrospective Studies ; Male ; Hemodynamics ; Logistic Models ; Pregnancy