1.Analysis and projection of the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China based on the GBD database.
Yexun SONG ; Xiajing LIU ; Yongquan ZHANG ; Heqing LI
Journal of Central South University(Medical Sciences) 2025;50(4):675-683
OBJECTIVES:
Nasopharyngeal carcinoma is often diagnosed at a late stage due to its concealed location and exhibits marked regional clustering, posing a significant public health challenge in China. This study aims to analyze the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China using the latest 2021 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) database, providing epidemiological evidence for precise prevention and control of nasopharyngeal carcinoma.
METHODS:
Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate were used as indicators of disease burden. Stratified analyses were conducted by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and relevant risk factors. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model were employed to project ASIR trends through 2050.
RESULTS:
In 2021, China's age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALY rates of nasopharyngeal carcinoma were 3.4/100 000, 1.5/100 000, and 48.7/100 000, respectively, all higher than the global average. Across all age groups, Chinese males exhibited higher ASIR, mortality, and DALY rates than females. From 1990 to 2021, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China decreased gradually with rising SDI. The proportion of nasopharyngeal carcinoma burden attributed to alcohol consumption, smoking, and occupational formaldehyde exposure in China exceeded global levels, especially among males. Projections from both models indicate a rising trend in ASIR for males, females, and the general population in China and globally from 2022 to 2050.
CONCLUSIONS
Over the past 30 years, the disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China has decreased with the increasing SDI values but remains higher than the global average. Furthermore, ASIR is projected to increase over the next 30 years. It is imperative for China to enhance healthcare resource allocation for nasopharyngeal carcinoma prevention, diagnosis, and treatment, particularly among high-risk male populations.
Humans
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Male
;
Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma/mortality*
;
Female
;
Middle Aged
;
Nasopharyngeal Neoplasms/mortality*
;
Adult
;
Incidence
;
Global Burden of Disease
;
Disability-Adjusted Life Years
;
Aged
;
Risk Factors
;
Adolescent
;
Databases, Factual
;
Young Adult
;
Cost of Illness
;
Child
;
Bayes Theorem
2.Lip and oral cancers in East Asia from 1990 to 2035: trends of disease burden and future projections.
Yitong LIU ; Ke ZHAO ; Xiaodong WANG
Journal of Southern Medical University 2025;45(7):1554-1562
OBJECTIVES:
To analyze the trends of disease burden of lip and oral cancers in East Asia from 1990 to 2021 and its future projections.
METHODS:
We used the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database to conduct a comprehensive analysis of disease burden data from China (including Taiwan Province of China), Japan, Republic of Korea, Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Mongolia. The data were stratified by age, gender and major risk factors, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was employed to predict the future trends.
RESULTS:
From 1990 to 2021, the burden of lip and oral cancers in East Asian countries exhibited a steady increase. Taiwan Province of China experienced the most significant increases in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), while Mongolia saw a decline in both mortality and DALYs. In 2021, Taiwan Province of China reported the highest rates of lip and oral cancer incidence (27.50 per 100 000), prevalence (137.92 per 100 000), mortality (9.59 per 100 000), and DALYs (292.07 person-years per 100 000), particularly among male and elderly populations. Tobacco use and alcohol consumption significantly exacerbated the disease burden in Taiwan Province of China and Japan. Future projections indicate that the incidence and prevalence of lip and oral cancer in China (excluding Taiwan Province of China) will continue to rise, while their mortality rates are expected to decline in most regions, except for Taiwan Province of China and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
CONCLUSIONS
By the year 2035, the disease burden of lip and oral cancers in East Asia is expected to continue to increase, especially in Taiwan Province of China. To address this challenge, it is essential to implement effective measures to control major risk factors, promote early screening, and ensure equitable distribution of healthcare resources.
Humans
;
Mouth Neoplasms/epidemiology*
;
Incidence
;
Lip Neoplasms/epidemiology*
;
Asia, Eastern/epidemiology*
;
Male
;
Disability-Adjusted Life Years
;
Prevalence
;
Female
;
Forecasting
;
Risk Factors
;
Cost of Illness
;
Middle Aged
;
Global Burden of Disease
;
Aged
;
Bayes Theorem
3.Racial differences in treatment and prognosis of gastric signet ring cell carcinoma: analysis based on SEER and TCGA databases.
Shangping FANG ; Jiameng LIU ; Xingchen YUE ; Huan LI ; Wanning LI ; Xiaoyu TANG ; Pengju BAO
Journal of Southern Medical University 2025;45(8):1706-1717
OBJECTIVES:
To analyze the differences in the prognosis of gastric signet ring cell carcinoma (SRCC) among different races using the US Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database.
METHODS:
We analyzed the data of patients with gastric SRCC from the SEER database from 2000 to 2020, and divided the patients into cohorts of whites, blacks, Asians or Pacific Islanders, American Indians/Alaska Natives according to their race. The prognosis and treatment of the cohorts were evaluated using baseline demographic analysis, Kamplan-Meier survival curve, and nomogram analysis.
RESULTS:
We analyzed the data of a total of 2058 patients, including 8.6% blacks, 72.4% whites, 16.6% Asians or Pacific Islanders, 1.0% American Indians/Alaska Natives, and 1.4% other races. The tumor grade varied among different races, and the prevalence and survival rates of patients differed significantly across races. The differences in the white cohort were the most prominent, and all the differences were statistically significant (P<0.05). Racial differences were also noted in patient management and prognosis.
CONCLUSIONS
There are racial differences in tumor grades and prognosis of gastric SRCC, and these differences provide evidence for optimizing clinical diagnosis and treatment strategies for this malignancy.
Aged
;
Female
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Middle Aged
;
Carcinoma, Signet Ring Cell/therapy*
;
Databases, Factual
;
Prognosis
;
Racial Groups
;
SEER Program
;
Stomach Neoplasms/therapy*
;
Survival Rate
;
United States/epidemiology*
;
White
;
Asian American Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander
;
American Indian or Alaska Native
;
Black or African American
4.Intraoperative renal collecting system damage increases risks of ipsilateral upper urinary tract stones after partial nephrectomy: a 1∶2 propensity-matched case-control study.
Yanzhong LIU ; Run ZHU ; Yuzhu LI ; Xin MA ; Haixing MAI
Journal of Southern Medical University 2025;45(9):1880-1888
OBJECTIVES:
To investigate the incidence of ipsilateral upper urinary tract stones after partial nephrectomy and its risk factors.
METHODS:
We retrospectively analyzed baseline patient characteristics (age, gender, and body mass index), smoking, alcohol consumption, comorbidities (hypertension, diabetes, hypertriglyceridemia, hyperuricemia, and cardiovascular diseases), preoperative tumor conditions (tumor diameter, multiple foci, location, hemorrhage, necrosis, cystic changes, and endophytic growth), preoperative glomerular filtration rate and intraoperative factors (renal collecting system damage, ischemia time, operation time, surgical approach, and estimated intraoperative blood loss) to identify the risk factors for ipsilateral upper urinary tract stones following partial nephrectomy in our center.
RESULTS:
The overall incidence of upper urinary tract stones following partial nephrectomy was 7.80% (112/1435). The incidence of ipsilateral upper urinary tract stones was significantly higher than those of contralateral stones (4.95% vs 1.46%, P<0.001) and bilateral stones (4.95% vs 1.39%, P<0.001). Intraoperative damage to the renal collecting system was identified as a significant risk factor for ipsilateral upper urinary tract stones (OR=4.550, 95% CI: 2.237-9.252, P<0.001). Diabetes was a probable risk factor for secondary ipsilateral upper urinary tract stones after partial nephrectomy (OR=2.419, 95% CI: 0.973-6.012, P=0.057).
CONCLUSIONS
The incidence of ipsilateral upper urinary tract stones after partial nephrectomy is higher than that of contralateral and bilateral stones. Intraoperative renal collecting system damage is a risk factor for secondary ipsilateral upper urinary tract stones after partial nephrectomy.
Humans
;
Nephrectomy/methods*
;
Retrospective Studies
;
Risk Factors
;
Male
;
Female
;
Case-Control Studies
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged
;
Kidney Neoplasms/surgery*
;
Adult
;
Intraoperative Complications
;
Kidney Tubules, Collecting/injuries*
;
Propensity Score
;
Incidence
;
Kidney Calculi/etiology*
;
Urinary Calculi/epidemiology*
5.Gallstones, cholecystectomy, and cancer risk: an observational and Mendelian randomization study.
Yuanyue ZHU ; Linhui SHEN ; Yanan HUO ; Qin WAN ; Yingfen QIN ; Ruying HU ; Lixin SHI ; Qing SU ; Xuefeng YU ; Li YAN ; Guijun QIN ; Xulei TANG ; Gang CHEN ; Yu XU ; Tiange WANG ; Zhiyun ZHAO ; Zhengnan GAO ; Guixia WANG ; Feixia SHEN ; Xuejiang GU ; Zuojie LUO ; Li CHEN ; Qiang LI ; Zhen YE ; Yinfei ZHANG ; Chao LIU ; Youmin WANG ; Shengli WU ; Tao YANG ; Huacong DENG ; Lulu CHEN ; Tianshu ZENG ; Jiajun ZHAO ; Yiming MU ; Weiqing WANG ; Guang NING ; Jieli LU ; Min XU ; Yufang BI ; Weiguo HU
Frontiers of Medicine 2025;19(1):79-89
This study aimed to comprehensively examine the association of gallstones, cholecystectomy, and cancer risk. Multivariable logistic regressions were performed to estimate the observational associations of gallstones and cholecystectomy with cancer risk, using data from a nationwide cohort involving 239 799 participants. General and gender-specific two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was further conducted to assess the causalities of the observed associations. Observationally, a history of gallstones without cholecystectomy was associated with a high risk of stomach cancer (adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=2.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.50-4.28), liver and bile duct cancer (aOR=2.46, 95% CI 1.17-5.16), kidney cancer (aOR=2.04, 95% CI 1.05-3.94), and bladder cancer (aOR=2.23, 95% CI 1.01-5.13) in the general population, as well as cervical cancer (aOR=1.69, 95% CI 1.12-2.56) in women. Moreover, cholecystectomy was associated with high odds of stomach cancer (aOR=2.41, 95% CI 1.29-4.49), colorectal cancer (aOR=1.83, 95% CI 1.18-2.85), and cancer of liver and bile duct (aOR=2.58, 95% CI 1.11-6.02). MR analysis only supported the causal effect of gallstones on stomach, liver and bile duct, kidney, and bladder cancer. This study added evidence to the causal effect of gallstones on stomach, liver and bile duct, kidney, and bladder cancer, highlighting the importance of cancer screening in individuals with gallstones.
Humans
;
Mendelian Randomization Analysis
;
Gallstones/complications*
;
Female
;
Male
;
Cholecystectomy/statistics & numerical data*
;
Middle Aged
;
Risk Factors
;
Aged
;
Adult
;
Neoplasms/etiology*
;
Stomach Neoplasms/epidemiology*
6.Health risks associated with infertility and non-obstructive azoospermia.
Eric HUYGHE ; Peter Ka-Fung CHIU
Asian Journal of Andrology 2025;27(3):428-432
Non-obstructive azoospermia is a common condition associated with significant health risks, including increased mortality, cancer, and chronic diseases such as metabolic and cardiovascular disorders. This review aims to highlight the potential health challenges faced by men with this condition compared to fertile counterparts. Through a comprehensive bibliographic search on PubMed, using the following algorithm: ("infertility, male" [MeSH Terms] OR "azoospermia" [MeSH Terms]) AND ("mortality" [MeSH Terms] OR "neoplasms" [MeSH Terms] OR "chronic disease" [MeSH Terms] OR "diabetes mellitus" [MeSH Terms] OR "heart diseases" [MeSH Terms]), we analyzed existing literature to explore the associations between infertility, specifically azoospermia, and adverse health outcomes. Findings indicate that infertile men are at a higher risk of death, various cancers (particularly testicular cancer), metabolic syndrome, diabetes, hypogonadism, and cardiovascular disease. Although research specifically addressing azoospermia is limited, available studies support the notion that men with this condition may experience heightened health vulnerabilities. Given these risks, it is imperative for healthcare professionals, especially urologists, to conduct thorough health assessments for men diagnosed with azoospermia. Informing patients of these potential health issues and integrating comprehensive evaluations into their care can facilitate early detection and intervention for life-threatening conditions. Ultimately, men with azoospermia should receive ongoing monitoring to address their specific health concerns, thus improving their long-term health outcomes.
Humans
;
Male
;
Azoospermia/epidemiology*
;
Cardiovascular Diseases/etiology*
;
Metabolic Syndrome/epidemiology*
;
Infertility, Male/complications*
;
Testicular Neoplasms/epidemiology*
;
Hypogonadism/epidemiology*
;
Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiology*
;
Risk Factors
;
Neoplasms/epidemiology*
7.Disease burden and trend of melanoma among middle-aged and elderly population in China from 1990 to 2020, and prediction for 2022 to 2035.
Lyuxin GUAN ; Ziqin GAN ; Guangtao HUANG ; Suchun HOU ; Yansi LYU
Journal of Zhejiang University. Medical sciences 2025;54(1):1-9
OBJECTIVES:
To analyze the disease burden of melanoma among middle-aged and elderly populations in China, and to predict the future trend.
METHODS:
Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 were utilized to collect incidence and mortality rates of melanoma, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and corresponding age crude rates among the middle-aged and elderly population in China during 1990 and 2021. Additionally, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was employed to assess the temporal trends. Age-period-cohort (APC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were utilized to compute age, period, and cohort effects on incidence and mortality rates of melanoma, as well as to predict future trends up to 2035.
RESULTS:
During 1990-2021, the incidence rate of melanoma for males was higher than that for females among the middle-aged and elderly population in China, and the overall incidence rate increased annually with an EAPC of 2.13 (1.90-2.36), while the overall mortality rate and DALY rate showed a declining trend with an EAPC of -0.28 (-0.41--0.15) and -0.54 (-0.68--0.41), respectively. The results of the APC model analysis revealed that age effects on both incidence and mortality rates of melanoma in China's middle-aged and elderly population were significant, with both increasing with age. Period and cohort effects showed an upward trend for incidence rates but a downward trend for mortality rates. Moreover, the period and cohort effects for mortality rates were not significant among females. In the BAPC prediction model, the number of incidences of melanoma in middle-aged and elderly people in China would increase dramatically. By 2035, the number of incidence cases is expected to reach approximately 9600 (males) and 10 300 (females), corresponding to an incidence rate of 2.66/105 and 2.67/105, respectively. The number of deaths is projected to be about 2600 (males) and 3500 (females) by 2035, corresponding to a mortality rate of 0.72/105 and 0.91/105, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
The disease burden of melanoma among the middle-aged and elderly population in China remains substantial and is expected to increase over the next decade.
Humans
;
Melanoma/mortality*
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Aged
;
Middle Aged
;
Male
;
Female
;
Incidence
;
Disability-Adjusted Life Years
;
Bayes Theorem
;
Cost of Illness
;
Skin Neoplasms/epidemiology*
8.Global disease burden of cervical cancer and the association of screening coverage with quality of disease management.
Chang SUN ; Abdalle Abdi MUSTAFE ; Bingqing LIU ; Yuanying MA ; Weiguo LYU
Journal of Zhejiang University. Medical sciences 2025;54(3):281-288
OBJECTIVES:
To analyze the global disease burden of cervical cancer and the association between screening coverage and the quality of disease management.
METHODS:
The data of global burden of cervical cancer 2021 and the data of cervical cancer screening 2019 were obtained from IHME Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and the WHO global health observatory, respectively. The age-standardized disease burden index was calculated, the quality of care index (QCI) was determined with principal component analysis, and the correlation between QCI and cervical cancer screening coverage was examined with linear regression analysis by regions and populations.
RESULTS:
The burden of cervical cancer and the quality of management exhibited significant variability across countries with differing levels of social development. The indicators of cervical cancer burden in China were close to the average level of countries with higher socio-demographic index (SDI). The global QCI was 22.22 (10.50, 35.43), and that of China was 26.30. The global screening coverage rate for cervical cancer was 42% (12%, 86%) and that in China was 31%. After adjusting for the social development level of countries, the coverage level of cervical cancer screening was associated with QCI (β=0.27, P<0.01), with no difference between low and high SDI countries (P>0.05). The association was significantly stronger among 25-30 years old women (β=1.48, P<0.05).
CONCLUSIONS
There are discrepancies in both the disease burden of cervical cancer and the quality of disease management among countries with different socioeconomic levels, and there is still considerable room for improvement in China. Expanding coverage of cervical cancer screening may be an effective strategy to enhance the management quality of cervical cancer, particularly among younger women where the screening benefits are most pronounced.
Humans
;
Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/prevention & control*
;
Female
;
Early Detection of Cancer
;
Global Burden of Disease
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Mass Screening
;
Quality of Health Care
;
Disease Management
;
Adult
;
Middle Aged
9.A Prospective Cohort Study on Soy Product Intake and the Risk of Lung Cancer Based on Shanghai Suburban Adult Cohort and Biobank.
Shiyun DING ; Wenhui WU ; Jianing MAO ; Jingrao LI ; Ji ZHENG ; Ye YAO ; Genming ZHAO ; Yiling WU ; Ruoxin ZHANG
Chinese Journal of Lung Cancer 2025;28(4):291-303
BACKGROUND:
Lung cancer is one of the malignant cancers with the highest incidence rate, and it is important to identify the factors contributing to lung cancer carcinogenesis for prevention. Lifestyle and genetic factors play important roles in cancer development, however the impact of dietary factors, such as soy product intake, on lung cancer risk remains inadequately understood. This study aims to explore the associations between soy product intake, genetic risk, and lung cancer incidence, and validate the consistent effects of soy product intake in European populations, thereby providing new insights for lung cancer prevention.
METHODS:
Utilizing the Shanghai Suburban Adult Cohort and Biobank (SSACB) (n=66,311), Cox proportional hazards model was adopted to assess the association between soy product intake and lung cancer incidents, followed by subgroup analyses stratified by gender, smoking status, and pathological types of lung cancer. The UK Biobank (UKB) was used for validation of the effect of soy product intake on lung cancer. To investigate the association between genetic factors and lung cancer, in addition to previously reported loci, we incorporated newly identified loci from two independent studies in Southeast China: a nested case-control population from the SSACB cohort (433 cases/650 controls) and a case-control study from the Shanghai Cancer Center-Taizhou cohort (1359 cases/1359 controls). Meta-analysis and Linkage disequilibrium clumping (LD clumping) of the association results identified 23 loci for polygenic risk score (PRS) construction. Subsequently, conditional Logistic regression model was used to assess the association between genetic risk and lung cancer.
RESULTS:
In SSACB cohort, after adjusting for age, gender, smoking, chronic bronchitis, body mass index (BMI), vegetable intake and red meat intake, sufficient soy product intake was significantly associated with a reduced risk of lung cancer [hazard ratio (HR)=0.60, 95%CI: 0.47-0.77, Padj=6.69E-05], an effect that was consistent in males and females, smokers and non-smokers. In UKB, although the association did not reach statistical significance, a protective trend against lung cancer was also observed (HR=0.76, 95%CI: 0.55-1.06, Padj=0.10). In the nested case-control population within SSACB, a PRS score generated in the Chinese population was significantly correlated with lung cancer risk. After adjustment of age, gender, smoking, chronic bronchitis, and soy product intake, the high-PRS group had a 1.88 times higher risk of lung cancer compared to the low-PRS group (Padj=1.84E-03).
CONCLUSIONS
The prospective cohort study found that adequate intake of soy products was significantly associated with a reduced risk of lung cancer, while a high PRS is a risk factor for lung cancer development. Integrating soy product intake and PRS into traditional epidemiological risk factor prediction will guide personalized lung cancer prevention and high-risk population stratification.
Humans
;
Lung Neoplasms/etiology*
;
Male
;
Female
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Middle Aged
;
Adult
;
Aged
;
Prospective Studies
;
Biological Specimen Banks
;
Risk Factors
;
Case-Control Studies
;
Cohort Studies
10.Trend of Death and Years of Life Lost Caused by Lung Cancer in Handan, 2017-2023.
Nianzhen FANG ; Yang ZHAO ; Yang YANG
Chinese Journal of Lung Cancer 2025;28(6):427-433
BACKGROUND:
Lung cancer ranks as the foremost cause of cancer-related deaths in China, significantly undermining population health and longevity. By analyzing the trends of death and years of life lost caused by lung cancer in Handan from 2017 to 2023, data support is provided for the formulation of prevention and treatment strategies.
METHODS:
Lung cancer death data in Handan during 2017-2023 were collected. Excel 2010, SPSS 26.0 and Joinpoint 4.9.0.0 were used to analyze the mortality rate of lung cancer, average annual percentage change (AAPC), cause eliminated life expectancy (CELE), potential gains in life expectancy (PGLEs), Fulfillment index, potential years of life lost (PYLL), potential years of life lost rate (PYLLR), and standardized potential years of life lost rate (SPYLLR).
RESULTS:
The standardized mortality rate of lung cancer in Handan from 2017 to 2023 showed a decreasing trend (AAPC=-7.10%, P<0.01). The CELE of lung cancer increased by 2.49 years (AAPC=0.48%, P<0.05). The life loss rate decreased by 21.43% (AAPC=-4.61%, P<0.05). The Fulfillment index by lung cancer increased with the growth of age from 2017 to 2023. The PYLL, PYLLR, standardized potential years of life lost (SPYLL) and SPYLLR of lung cancer during 2017 to 2023 were 134,219.75 person years, 2.03‰, 98,735.63 person years, and 1.49‰, respectively. The annual PYLLR and SPYLLR showed a decreasing trend (AAPC=-6.34%, -9.34%, respectively, P<0.01).
CONCLUSIONS
The standardized mortality rate of lung cancer in Handan from 2017 to 2023 showed a decreasing trend, and the impact of lung cancer on life expectancy decreased. The mortality rates of lung cancer showed significant differences among different ages and genders. It is necessary to take good measures to prevent and control lung cancer in males and higher age groups.
Lung Neoplasms/mortality*
;
Humans
;
Male
;
Life Expectancy/trends*
;
Female
;
China/epidemiology*
;
Aged
;
Middle Aged
;
Aged, 80 and over
;
Adult
;
Young Adult

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