Objective:To evaluate the cost-effectiveness and impact on mortality of health management services for the elderly aged 65 years and older in national essential public health service project.Methods:Based on the data of county-level medical institutions in Henan Province from 2019 to 2024,the Random Forest Method was used to construct a counterfactual framework to predict the hospitalization expenses under the unmanaged scenario,and then the cost-benefit ratio(BCR)and net income were calculated.Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the effect of health management on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease mortality in the elderly.Results:A total of 962 955 elderly patients were included,451 119(46.85%)were included in the management group.The average hospitalization cost of the management group was significantly lower than that of the non-management group(P<0.05).Except for 2020-2021,BCRS in 2019 and 2022-2024 were 6.34,2.05,4.45 and 6.60,respectively.The risk of all-cause death was reduced by 76.96%,and the risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular death was reduced by 75.57%in the elderly patients included in the management group compared with those not included in the management group.Suggestions:It is necessary to establish a health outcomes-based evaluation system and promote the transformation and upgrading of the service model from single chronic disease management to"integrated health services with multi-disease management".

Objective:To evaluate the cost-effectiveness and impact on mortality of health management services for the elderly aged 65 years and older in national essential public health service project.Methods:Based on the data of county-level medical institutions in Henan Province from 2019 to 2024,the Random Forest Method was used to construct a counterfactual framework to predict the hospitalization expenses under the unmanaged scenario,and then the cost-benefit ratio(BCR)and net income were calculated.Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the effect of health management on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease mortality in the elderly.Results:A total of 962 955 elderly patients were included,451 119(46.85%)were included in the management group.The average hospitalization cost of the management group was significantly lower than that of the non-management group(P<0.05).Except for 2020-2021,BCRS in 2019 and 2022-2024 were 6.34,2.05,4.45 and 6.60,respectively.The risk of all-cause death was reduced by 76.96%,and the risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular death was reduced by 75.57%in the elderly patients included in the management group compared with those not included in the management group.Suggestions:It is necessary to establish a health outcomes-based evaluation system and promote the transformation and upgrading of the service model from single chronic disease management to"integrated health services with multi-disease management".