1.Effects of Guilu Erxian Glue on gut microbiota in rats with knee osteoarthritis:machine learning and 16S rDNA analysis
Fucheng GU ; Meixin YANG ; Weixin WU ; Weijun CAI ; Yangyi QIN ; Mingyi SUN ; Jian SUN ; Qiudong GENG ; Nan LI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(4):1058-1072
BACKGROUND:The Guilu Erxian Glue consists of Testudinis Plastrum,Cornu Cervi,Lycii Fructus,and Ginseng Radix.In earlier clinical observations,it is discovered that using Guilu Erxian Glue to treat patients with liver-kidney deficiency type knee osteoarthritis effectively alleviated knee pain,increased the range of motion,and improved walking ability.However,the exact mechanism by which oral administration of Guilu Erxian Glue can produce local therapeutic effects on the knee joint is still unclear.OBJECTIVE:To investigate the effects of Guilu Erxian Glue on gut microbiota in rats with knee osteoarthritis and to evaluate its mechanism using 16S rDNA sequencing and machine learning analysis.METHODS:Totally 18 female SD rats were randomly divided into three groups:blank group,model group,and Guilu Erxian Glue group,with 6 rats in each group.A knee osteoarthritis model was prepared using the destabilization of the medial meniscus surgical method.After successful modeling,the Guilu Erxian Glue group was given a decoction of Guilu Erxian Glue by gavage,while the blank and model groups were given an equal amount of distilled water.After 28 days of continuous intervention,high performance liquid chromatography was used to detect the active ingredients of Guilu Erxian Glue.MRI imaging was used to observe the condition of rat knee articular cartilage.Fecal samples were collected;DNA was extracted using a kit,amplified and purified by PCR,and an Illumina sequencing library was constructed.The Illumina MiSeq platform was used for high-throughput sequencing to generate raw sequence data.After obtaining the raw data,QIIME2 software was used to process the data.Linear Discriminant Analysis Effect Size analysis and random forest algorithm were used to screen for differential species in microbial data.KEGG and MetaCyc functional pathway analyses were used to explore the association between key microbial communities and experimental groups.Linear discriminant analysis effect values and random forest algorithm were used to screen for differential species.Association networks were used to analyze the interactions between microbial communities,and machine learning methods were used to analyze the composition and changes of gut microbiota.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)LC-MS component identification was conducted on the traditional Chinese medicine formula of Guilu Erxian Glue,and a total of 7 effective ingredients were identified.(2)MRI imaging showed that synovitis scope of high-density shadows in rats of the Guilu Erxian Glue group was reduced,and the degeneration of medial femoral condyle cartilage was less than that in the model group.(3)16S rDNA sequencing showed that the model group rats exhibited significant microbial imbalance,with a significant decrease in the abundance of Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes at the phylum level,while the proportion of Proteobacteria increased significantly(P<0.05).The gut microbiota structure of rats in the Guilu Erxian Glue group was significantly improved,and the proportion of Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes increased,restoring a more diverse microbiota composition,approaching that of the blank group(P<0.05).(4)KEGG and MetaCyc functional pathway analysis showed that the Guilu Erxian Glue group significantly activated multiple metabolic pathways,including amino acid metabolism,lipid metabolism,and biotin synthesis pathways(P<0.05).(5)The results indicate that Guilu Erxian Glue contains seven active ingredients,and the changes in gut microbiota of knee osteoarthritis rats were analyzed using 16S rDNA sequencing.Guilu Erxian Glue can significantly improve the imbalance of gut microbiota,restore the abundance of beneficial bacteria,and have a significant impact on the composition of gut microbiota,providing scientific basis for the efficacy and mechanism of Guilu Erxian Glue.
2.Establishment and validation of a model for femoral head necrosis after internal fixation of femoral neck fracture using logistic regression and SHAP analysis
Long LIAO ; Zepeng ZHAO ; Zongyuan LI ; Qinglong YU ; Tao ZHANG ; Jinyuan TANG ; Nan YE ; Han XU ; Bo SHI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(3):626-633
BACKGROUND:The most common complication of traumatic femoral neck fractures after internal fixation is femoral head necrosis.Currently,many studies have reported on the risk factors that affect the occurrence and development of postoperative femoral head necrosis,but there is still a lack of tools to predict the risk of femoral head necrosis after internal fixation of femoral neck fractures.OBJECTIVE:To develop a predictive model that estimates the risk of femoral head necrosis shortly after patients with femoral neck fractures receive cannulated screw internal fixation.METHODS:A retrospective analysis reviewed clinical records of 172 patients who underwent cannulated screw internal fixation for femoral neck fractures at Department of Orthopedics of Mianyang Central Hospital from January 2013 to June 2023.Patients were categorized into two groups based on the presence or absence of femoral head necrosis within one year post-operation:the necrosis group and the non-necrosis group.Univariate analysis,Lasso regression,and multivariate Logistic regression techniques were employed to identify the determinants of femoral head necrosis.A nomogram prediction model was constructed using R language's"rms"package,version 4.0.The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the discriminatory ability of the model.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model,and the decision curve analysis was used to determine its clinical application benefits.Internal validation of the study was conducted using the Bootstrap method,involving 1 000 repeated samplings.To delve deeper into the primary factors influencing femoral head necrosis post-internal fixation of the femoral neck,this paper employed the SHAP method for data set analysis.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The risk factors leading to femoral head necrosis in the short term after cannulated screw fixation of femoral neck fractures include:smoking,diabetes,Garden classification,fracture line location,reduction quality,age,and operation time.(2)The prediction model demonstrated robust performance,evidenced by an area under the curve of 0.940(95%Confidence Interval:0.903 to 0.977),indicating a high level of prediction accuracy.The model achieved a sensitivity of 90.2%and a specificity of 87.6%,indicating that its diagnostic performance was stable.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test yielded a chi-square value of 6.593 with a P-value of 0.581,confirming that the model's predictions closely align with the observed outcomes.(3)The calibration curve of the model also performed well,and its overall trend was very close to the ideal curve,further proving the high accuracy of the model.(4)The internal validation was carried out by the Bootstrap method with 1 000 repeated samplings,and the area under the curve of the model internal validation was still as high as 0.939,proving that the model had good stability.(5)Through the decision curve,it is found that within the probability threshold range of 1%to 92%,the model can obtain the maximum net benefit value.(6)The SHAP analysis results show that among the risk factors analyzed in this study,the location of the fracture line serves as the most significant predictor of femoral head necrosis following internal fixation with cannulated screws in femoral neck fractures,and subcapital fractures are extremely prone to femoral head necrosis after surgery.(7)It is concluded that the validated prediction model demonstrates strong discriminative power and reliability,offering practical clinical utility.It serves as a useful reference tool for short-term risk assessment of femoral head necrosis following internal fixation of femoral neck fractures.
3.Effects of Guilu Erxian Glue on gut microbiota in rats with knee osteoarthritis:machine learning and 16S rDNA analysis
Fucheng GU ; Meixin YANG ; Weixin WU ; Weijun CAI ; Yangyi QIN ; Mingyi SUN ; Jian SUN ; Qiudong GENG ; Nan LI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(4):1058-1072
BACKGROUND:The Guilu Erxian Glue consists of Testudinis Plastrum,Cornu Cervi,Lycii Fructus,and Ginseng Radix.In earlier clinical observations,it is discovered that using Guilu Erxian Glue to treat patients with liver-kidney deficiency type knee osteoarthritis effectively alleviated knee pain,increased the range of motion,and improved walking ability.However,the exact mechanism by which oral administration of Guilu Erxian Glue can produce local therapeutic effects on the knee joint is still unclear.OBJECTIVE:To investigate the effects of Guilu Erxian Glue on gut microbiota in rats with knee osteoarthritis and to evaluate its mechanism using 16S rDNA sequencing and machine learning analysis.METHODS:Totally 18 female SD rats were randomly divided into three groups:blank group,model group,and Guilu Erxian Glue group,with 6 rats in each group.A knee osteoarthritis model was prepared using the destabilization of the medial meniscus surgical method.After successful modeling,the Guilu Erxian Glue group was given a decoction of Guilu Erxian Glue by gavage,while the blank and model groups were given an equal amount of distilled water.After 28 days of continuous intervention,high performance liquid chromatography was used to detect the active ingredients of Guilu Erxian Glue.MRI imaging was used to observe the condition of rat knee articular cartilage.Fecal samples were collected;DNA was extracted using a kit,amplified and purified by PCR,and an Illumina sequencing library was constructed.The Illumina MiSeq platform was used for high-throughput sequencing to generate raw sequence data.After obtaining the raw data,QIIME2 software was used to process the data.Linear Discriminant Analysis Effect Size analysis and random forest algorithm were used to screen for differential species in microbial data.KEGG and MetaCyc functional pathway analyses were used to explore the association between key microbial communities and experimental groups.Linear discriminant analysis effect values and random forest algorithm were used to screen for differential species.Association networks were used to analyze the interactions between microbial communities,and machine learning methods were used to analyze the composition and changes of gut microbiota.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)LC-MS component identification was conducted on the traditional Chinese medicine formula of Guilu Erxian Glue,and a total of 7 effective ingredients were identified.(2)MRI imaging showed that synovitis scope of high-density shadows in rats of the Guilu Erxian Glue group was reduced,and the degeneration of medial femoral condyle cartilage was less than that in the model group.(3)16S rDNA sequencing showed that the model group rats exhibited significant microbial imbalance,with a significant decrease in the abundance of Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes at the phylum level,while the proportion of Proteobacteria increased significantly(P<0.05).The gut microbiota structure of rats in the Guilu Erxian Glue group was significantly improved,and the proportion of Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes increased,restoring a more diverse microbiota composition,approaching that of the blank group(P<0.05).(4)KEGG and MetaCyc functional pathway analysis showed that the Guilu Erxian Glue group significantly activated multiple metabolic pathways,including amino acid metabolism,lipid metabolism,and biotin synthesis pathways(P<0.05).(5)The results indicate that Guilu Erxian Glue contains seven active ingredients,and the changes in gut microbiota of knee osteoarthritis rats were analyzed using 16S rDNA sequencing.Guilu Erxian Glue can significantly improve the imbalance of gut microbiota,restore the abundance of beneficial bacteria,and have a significant impact on the composition of gut microbiota,providing scientific basis for the efficacy and mechanism of Guilu Erxian Glue.
4.Establishment and validation of a model for femoral head necrosis after internal fixation of femoral neck fracture using logistic regression and SHAP analysis
Long LIAO ; Zepeng ZHAO ; Zongyuan LI ; Qinglong YU ; Tao ZHANG ; Jinyuan TANG ; Nan YE ; Han XU ; Bo SHI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(3):626-633
BACKGROUND:The most common complication of traumatic femoral neck fractures after internal fixation is femoral head necrosis.Currently,many studies have reported on the risk factors that affect the occurrence and development of postoperative femoral head necrosis,but there is still a lack of tools to predict the risk of femoral head necrosis after internal fixation of femoral neck fractures.OBJECTIVE:To develop a predictive model that estimates the risk of femoral head necrosis shortly after patients with femoral neck fractures receive cannulated screw internal fixation.METHODS:A retrospective analysis reviewed clinical records of 172 patients who underwent cannulated screw internal fixation for femoral neck fractures at Department of Orthopedics of Mianyang Central Hospital from January 2013 to June 2023.Patients were categorized into two groups based on the presence or absence of femoral head necrosis within one year post-operation:the necrosis group and the non-necrosis group.Univariate analysis,Lasso regression,and multivariate Logistic regression techniques were employed to identify the determinants of femoral head necrosis.A nomogram prediction model was constructed using R language's"rms"package,version 4.0.The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the discriminatory ability of the model.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model,and the decision curve analysis was used to determine its clinical application benefits.Internal validation of the study was conducted using the Bootstrap method,involving 1 000 repeated samplings.To delve deeper into the primary factors influencing femoral head necrosis post-internal fixation of the femoral neck,this paper employed the SHAP method for data set analysis.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The risk factors leading to femoral head necrosis in the short term after cannulated screw fixation of femoral neck fractures include:smoking,diabetes,Garden classification,fracture line location,reduction quality,age,and operation time.(2)The prediction model demonstrated robust performance,evidenced by an area under the curve of 0.940(95%Confidence Interval:0.903 to 0.977),indicating a high level of prediction accuracy.The model achieved a sensitivity of 90.2%and a specificity of 87.6%,indicating that its diagnostic performance was stable.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test yielded a chi-square value of 6.593 with a P-value of 0.581,confirming that the model's predictions closely align with the observed outcomes.(3)The calibration curve of the model also performed well,and its overall trend was very close to the ideal curve,further proving the high accuracy of the model.(4)The internal validation was carried out by the Bootstrap method with 1 000 repeated samplings,and the area under the curve of the model internal validation was still as high as 0.939,proving that the model had good stability.(5)Through the decision curve,it is found that within the probability threshold range of 1%to 92%,the model can obtain the maximum net benefit value.(6)The SHAP analysis results show that among the risk factors analyzed in this study,the location of the fracture line serves as the most significant predictor of femoral head necrosis following internal fixation with cannulated screws in femoral neck fractures,and subcapital fractures are extremely prone to femoral head necrosis after surgery.(7)It is concluded that the validated prediction model demonstrates strong discriminative power and reliability,offering practical clinical utility.It serves as a useful reference tool for short-term risk assessment of femoral head necrosis following internal fixation of femoral neck fractures.
5.Role of PI3K/Akt Pathway in Epirubicin Resistance in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Explored Through Transcriptomic Analysis
Lingshan NAN ; Xiaomin WANG ; Xi ZUO ; Haiming LI ; Dong CHEN ; Xiaohui YIN ; Ganlin ZHANG
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment 2026;53(5):339-348
Objective To establish an epirubicin (EPI)-resistant murine triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) (4T1/EPI) cell line and evaluate its biological characteristics and drug resistance. Methods The EPI-resistant cell line 4T1/EPI was developed through intermittent induction with gradually increasing EPI concentrations in vitro. Morphological changes were observed under an inverted microscope. Drug resistance index (MTT assay), cell doubling time (CCK-8 assay), and migration ability (wound healing assay) were evaluated. Western blot was used to detect the expression of drug resistance-related proteins. Transcriptome sequencing and KEGG pathway enrichment analysis were performed to identify the pathways and targets involved in EPI resistance, followed by experimental validation. Results The 4T1 cells eventually grew normally in a medium containing 100 ng/mL EPI, confirming the establishment of the 4T1/EPI resistant cell line. After stable resistance was acquired, morphological alterations were observed. Compared with their parental 4T1 cells, 4T1/EPI cells showed significantly prolonged doubling time (P<0.01) and enhanced migration ability (P<0.05). Expression levels of drug resistance-related proteins MDR1, MRP1 (P<0.01), and ABCG2 (P<0.05) were elevated in 4T1/EPI cells. In vivo models also demonstrated significant EPI resistance in 4T1/EPI tumors in terms of tumor weight and volume. Transcriptome sequencing highlighted the involvement of the PI3K/Akt signaling pathway and ABC transporter pathway. Validation experiments showed the upregulation of Erbb3, Egfr, PI3K, and Akt (P<0.05) and significant downregulation of Fgfr1 (P<0.01) in 4T1/EPI cells. Conclusion The EPI-resistant TNBC cell line 4T1/EPI was successfully established, exhibiting significant resistance in vitro and in vivo. The mechanism may involve the EPI-induced upregulation of Egfr and Erbb3, activating the PI3K/Akt pathway and subsequently enhancing ABC transporter expression.
6.From Gene Expression to Transcriptome-wide Association Study: Development and Comparison of Methodology
Kun FANG ; Guozhuang LI ; Linting WANG ; Qing LI ; Kexin XU ; Lina ZHAO ; Zhihong WU ; Jianguo ZHANG ; Nan WU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(1):223-229
Over the past two decades, genome-wide association study(GWAS) has identified numerous genetic variants and loci associated with heritable diseases. With the gradual maturation and saturation of GWAS methodologies, transcriptome-wide association study(TWAS) offers a novel perspective by linkinggenetic phenotypes to gene expression levels. By integrating TWAS with other multi-omics analyses, researchers can gain a deeper understanding of heritable diseases. This article provides an overview of recent groundbreaking and representative TWAS methods and tools, analyzes their strengths and limitations, and discusses future trends in TWAS development.
7.Explainable Machine Learning Model for Predicting Prognosis in Patients with Malignant Tumors Complicated by Acute Respiratory Failure: Based on the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States
Zihan NAN ; Linan HAN ; Suwei LI ; Ziyi ZHU ; Qinqin ZHU ; Yan DUAN ; Xiaoting WANG ; Lixia LIU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(1):98-108
To develop and validate a model for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality risk in patients with malignant tumors complicated by acute respiratory failure (ARF) based on an explainable machine learning framework. Clinical data of patients with malignant tumors and ARF were extracted from the eICU Collaborative Research Database in the United States, including demographic characteristics, comorbidities, vital signs, laboratory test indicators, and major interventions within the first 24 hours after ICU admission.The study outcome was ICU death.Enrolled patients were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3.Predictor variables were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression.Five machine learning algorithms-extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), Logistic regression, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and C5.0 Decision Tree-were employed to construct predictive models.Model performance was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and other metrics.The optimal model was further interpreted using the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) algorithm. A total of 3196 patients with malignant tumors complicated by ARF were included.The training set comprised 2, 261 patients and the validation set 935 patients; 683 patients died during ICU stay, while 2513 survived.LASSO regression ultimately selected 12 variables closely associated with patient ICU outcomes, including sepsis comorbidity, use of vasoactive drugs, and within the first 24 hours after ICU admission: minimum mean arterial pressure, maximum heart rate, maximum respiratory rate, minimum oxygen saturation, minimum serum bicarbonate, minimum blood urea nitrogen, maximum white blood cell count, maximum mean corpuscular volume, maximum serum potassium, and maximum blood glucose.After model evaluation, the XGBoost model demonstrated the best performance.The AUCs for predicting ICU mortality risk in the training and validation sets were 0.940 and 0.763, respectively; accuracy was 88.3% and 81.2%;sensitivity was 98.5% and 95.9%.Its predictive performance also remained optimal in sensitivity analyses.SHAP analysis indicated that the top five variables contributing to the model's predictions were minimum oxygen saturation, minimum serum bicarbonate, minimum mean arterial pressure, use of vasoactive drugs, and maximum white blood cell count. This study successfully developed a mortality risk prediction model for ICU patients with malignant tumors complicated by ARF based on a large-scale dataset and performed explainability analysis.The model aids clinicians in early identification of high-risk patients and implementing individualized interventions.
8.LINC00657 Promotes Malignant Progression of Cervical Cancer by Sponging miR-30a-5p to Regulate Skp2 Expression
Changhui ZHOU ; Jingqin REN ; Zhen CHEN ; Qi YAN ; Nan YANG ; Jiaqi ZHAO ; Rong LI
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment 2026;53(2):103-111
Objective To investigate the role and regulatory mechanism of LINC00657 in the progression of cervical cancer. Methods Bioinformatics analysis predicted potential binding sites between LINC00657 and miR-30a-5p and between miR-30a-5p and Skp2. These sites were verified by using RNA immunoprecipitation and dual-luciferase reporter experiments. LINC00657, miR-30a-5p, and Skp2 mRNA expression levels in cervical cancer tissues and cell lines were assessed by utilizing RT-qPCR. Western blot analysis was employed to examine the protein levels of Skp2 in cells and subcutaneous xenograft tumor models in nude mice. Immunohistochemistry was applied to analyze Skp2 expression in animal tissues. The cellular processes of cervical cancer cell lines were evaluated through CCK-8, scratch, and Transwell assays. Results LINC00657 and Skp2 presented binding sites for miR-30a-5p. In cervical cancer, LINC00657 and Skp2 showed high expression levels (P<0.05), whereas miR-30a-5p displayed low expression (P<0.05). Functional experiments demonstrated that linc00657 upregulates Skp2 expression, a process that is dependent on its sequestration of miR-30a-5p. Conclusion LINC00657 promoted the malignant progression of cervical cancer by upregulating Skp2 expression through specifically sequestering miR-30a-5p, thereby relieving its inhibitory effect on the target gene Skp2.
9.Correlation Analysis of Huanglian Jiedu Wan on Syndrome Improvement and Clinical Biomarkers of "Excess Heat-Toxicity" Based on Machine Learning Model
Qi LI ; Keke LUO ; Baolin BIAN ; Hongyu YU ; Mengxiao WANG ; Mengyao TIAN ; Wen XIA ; Yuan MA ; Xinfang ZHANG ; Pengyue LI ; Nan SI ; Hongjie WANG ; Yanyan ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(8):162-173
ObjectiveThis paper aims to find the identified and validated clinical biomarker data building upon a clinical study of early-phase phase Ⅱ and investigate the correlation analysis of Huanglian Jiedu Wan on syndrome improvement and clinical biomarkers in the treatment of "excess heat-toxicity" based on a machine learning model. Additionally, the effective prediction of clinical biomarker values for the main symptoms of the "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome was assessed. MethodsA total of 229 patients meeting the inclusion criteria for "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome were randomly divided into the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group and the placebo group. Syndrome score transition matrices were constructed for the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group and the placebo group based on three main symptoms of "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome, such as oral ulcers, sore throat, and gum swelling and pain. Data from the patients with these three syndromes were also integrated for an overall analysis. The corresponding syndrome score transition matrices were further constructed to visualize symptom change trends of the patients in the two groups via heatmaps. Based on the identified and validated clinical biomarkers related to inflammation, oxidative stress, and energy metabolism in the early phase, Spearman correlation analysis was employed to analyze and evaluate the associations between clinical biomarkers and syndrome improvement. Key clinical biomarkers reflecting the effect of Huanglian Jiedu Wan were screened through the comparison of differences between groups. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was used to develop a prediction model for main symptom classification, with classification performance evaluated through 10-fold cross-validation. Feature importance analysis was applied to identify variables with the greatest contribution to the prediction result. ResultsThe syndrome transition matrix results indicated that the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group showed a superior effect to the placebo group in improving oral ulcers, sore throat, and overall symptoms, with significant effects observed especially in sore throat and overall symptom analyses (P<0.01). Spearman correlation analysis revealed that several clinical biomarkers positively correlated with "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome and its main symptom improvement, were also called "heat-related biomarkers", including succinic acid, α-ketoglutaric acid, glycine, lactic acid, adenosine monophosphate (AMP), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interferon-γ (IFN-γ), interleukin-1β (IL-1β), interleukin-4 (IL-4), interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-8 (IL-8), interleukin-10 (IL-10), and so on. Conversely, clinical biomarkers negatively correlated with symptom severity, were also called "heat-clearing related biomarkers" after administration of Huanglian Jiedu Wan, including malic acid, fumaric acid, cis-aconitic acid, adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), IL-1β, IL-4, IL-8, succinic acid, and citric acid. The XGBoost classification model using all 52 biomarkers as variables achieved an average test accuracy of 0.754 and an average F1 score of 0.777. Feature importance analysis identified the scores of glutamic acid in saliva and IL-6 were the highest in all the variables, with importance scores of 0.081 and 0.080, respectively. After screening out 14 key variables and optimizing the parameters, model performance improved to an average accuracy of 0.758 and an F1 score of 0.798. Feature importance analysis further determined that the glutamic acid in saliva and IL-6 showed obvious changes after screening the variables, confirming the good syndrome prediction ability of the model constructed by these key clinical biomarkers. ConclusionThis study systematically elucidates the correlation between syndrome improvement and clinical biomarkers of Huanglian Jiedu Wan in the treatment of "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome. An XGBoost classification model based on key clinical biomarkers is successfully established, achieving effective prediction of the symptoms related to the "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome such as oral ulcers and sore throat and providing a new insight for objective identification of traditional Chinese medicine syndromes.
10.Correlation Analysis of Huanglian Jiedu Wan on Syndrome Improvement and Clinical Biomarkers of "Excess Heat-Toxicity" Based on Machine Learning Model
Qi LI ; Keke LUO ; Baolin BIAN ; Hongyu YU ; Mengxiao WANG ; Mengyao TIAN ; Wen XIA ; Yuan MA ; Xinfang ZHANG ; Pengyue LI ; Nan SI ; Hongjie WANG ; Yanyan ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(8):162-173
ObjectiveThis paper aims to find the identified and validated clinical biomarker data building upon a clinical study of early-phase phase Ⅱ and investigate the correlation analysis of Huanglian Jiedu Wan on syndrome improvement and clinical biomarkers in the treatment of "excess heat-toxicity" based on a machine learning model. Additionally, the effective prediction of clinical biomarker values for the main symptoms of the "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome was assessed. MethodsA total of 229 patients meeting the inclusion criteria for "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome were randomly divided into the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group and the placebo group. Syndrome score transition matrices were constructed for the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group and the placebo group based on three main symptoms of "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome, such as oral ulcers, sore throat, and gum swelling and pain. Data from the patients with these three syndromes were also integrated for an overall analysis. The corresponding syndrome score transition matrices were further constructed to visualize symptom change trends of the patients in the two groups via heatmaps. Based on the identified and validated clinical biomarkers related to inflammation, oxidative stress, and energy metabolism in the early phase, Spearman correlation analysis was employed to analyze and evaluate the associations between clinical biomarkers and syndrome improvement. Key clinical biomarkers reflecting the effect of Huanglian Jiedu Wan were screened through the comparison of differences between groups. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was used to develop a prediction model for main symptom classification, with classification performance evaluated through 10-fold cross-validation. Feature importance analysis was applied to identify variables with the greatest contribution to the prediction result. ResultsThe syndrome transition matrix results indicated that the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group showed a superior effect to the placebo group in improving oral ulcers, sore throat, and overall symptoms, with significant effects observed especially in sore throat and overall symptom analyses (P<0.01). Spearman correlation analysis revealed that several clinical biomarkers positively correlated with "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome and its main symptom improvement, were also called "heat-related biomarkers", including succinic acid, α-ketoglutaric acid, glycine, lactic acid, adenosine monophosphate (AMP), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interferon-γ (IFN-γ), interleukin-1β (IL-1β), interleukin-4 (IL-4), interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-8 (IL-8), interleukin-10 (IL-10), and so on. Conversely, clinical biomarkers negatively correlated with symptom severity, were also called "heat-clearing related biomarkers" after administration of Huanglian Jiedu Wan, including malic acid, fumaric acid, cis-aconitic acid, adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), IL-1β, IL-4, IL-8, succinic acid, and citric acid. The XGBoost classification model using all 52 biomarkers as variables achieved an average test accuracy of 0.754 and an average F1 score of 0.777. Feature importance analysis identified the scores of glutamic acid in saliva and IL-6 were the highest in all the variables, with importance scores of 0.081 and 0.080, respectively. After screening out 14 key variables and optimizing the parameters, model performance improved to an average accuracy of 0.758 and an F1 score of 0.798. Feature importance analysis further determined that the glutamic acid in saliva and IL-6 showed obvious changes after screening the variables, confirming the good syndrome prediction ability of the model constructed by these key clinical biomarkers. ConclusionThis study systematically elucidates the correlation between syndrome improvement and clinical biomarkers of Huanglian Jiedu Wan in the treatment of "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome. An XGBoost classification model based on key clinical biomarkers is successfully established, achieving effective prediction of the symptoms related to the "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome such as oral ulcers and sore throat and providing a new insight for objective identification of traditional Chinese medicine syndromes.

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