1.Effect of sitravatinib on a mouse model of carbon tetrachloride-induced liver fibrosis and its mechanism
Huan ZHANG ; Xiangyu WU ; Qianwen ZHAO ; Fajuan RUI ; Nan GENG ; Rui JIN ; Jie LI
Journal of Clinical Hepatology 2026;42(3):600-607
ObjectiveTo investigate the therapeutic effect of sitravatinib on carbon tetrachloride (CCl4)-induced liver fibrosis in mice. MethodsA total of 30 male C57BL/6J mice, aged 8 weeks, were randomly divided into control group, CCl4 model group, and low- (5 mg/kg), middle- (10 mg/kg), and high-dose (20 mg/kg) sitravatinib groups. All mice except those in the control group were given intraperitoneal injection of CCl4 for 4 consecutive weeks to induce liver fibrosis, and since the first day of modeling, the mice in the low-, middle-, and high-dose sitravatinib groups were given sitravatinib at the corresponding dose by gavage every day. The serum levels of total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) were measured for the mice in each group; hepatic hydroxyproline content was measured; HE staining, Masson staining, and Sirius Red staining were used to observe liver histopathological changes; quantitative real-time PCR and Western blot were used to measure the mRNA and protein expression levels of α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA) and collagen type I alpha 1 (Col1a1) in liver tissue. The therapeutic effect of sitravatinib was assessed based on the above results. A one-way analysis of variance was used for comparison of continuous data between multiple groups, and the least significant difference t-test was used for further comparison between two groups. ResultsCompared with the control group, the model group had significant increases in the levels of TC, TG, and ALT (all P<0.05), and there were no significant differences in the levels of TC, TG, and ALT between the model group and the low-, middle-, and high-dose sitravatinib groups (all P>0.05). Hepatic hydroxyproline content decreased after sitravatinib intervention, with a significant difference between the middle-/high-dose sitravatinib groups and the CCl4 model group (both P<0.05). Histopathological staining showed that the sitravatinib treatment groups had a reduction in collagen deposition, along with thinning and fragmentation of fibrous septa, and in the high-dose sitravatinib group, 4 mice had a fibrosis stage of S0—S1 and 2 mice had a fibrosis stage of S2—S3, suggesting a certain degree of alleviation of liver fibrosis degree compared with the CCl4 model group (mainly S3—S4). The measurement of related molecules showed that sitravatinib downregulated the mRNA and protein expression levels of α-SMA and Col1a1 (all P<0.05). ConclusionSitravatinib can effectively alleviate CCl4-induced liver fibrosis in mice, possibly by inhibiting hepatic stellate cell activation and collagen synthesis.
2.Long-term survival outcomes and prognostic factors following radical resection of pancreatic body and tail cancer:a retrospective analysis of 992 patients
Dong XU ; Yang WU ; Kai ZHANG ; Nan LYU ; Qianqian WANG ; Pengfei WU ; Jie YIN ; Baobao CAI ; Guodong SHI ; Jianzhen LIN ; Yazhou WANG ; Lingdi YIN ; Zipeng LU ; Min TU ; Jianmin CHEN ; Feng GUO ; Jishu WEI ; Junli WU ; Wentao GAO ; Cuncai DAI ; Yi MIAO ; Kuirong JIANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2026;64(1):46-54
Objective:To investigate the survival outcomes and prognostic factors in patients undergoing radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer.Methods:A retrospective case series study was conducted on 992 patients who underwent radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer at the Pancreatic Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2016 to June 2024. In this study, 577 (58.2%) were male and 415 (41.8%) were female,with an age of (65±9) years (range: 26 to 86 years). Follow-up continued until June 2024. Survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method,and prognostic factors were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.Results:Among 992 patients,open surgery was the predominant approach (89.1%, 884/992), and radical antegrade modular pancreatosplenectomy (RAMPS) was performed in 317 patients (32.0%). Combined organ resection,venous resection,and arterial resection were performed in 23.5%, 9.3%,and 11.2% of patients,respectively. The rates of R0, R1-1 mm, and R1-direct resections were 49.8% (494/992),41.5% (412/992), and 8.7% (86/992),respectively. Stage ⅡB was the most common TNM stage (32.2%,319/992). A total of 801 patients (80.8%) received adjuvant chemotherapy. The median follow-up period was 32.0(8.8) months(range:3.2 to 105.3 months),during which 508 patients (51.2%) died. The overall median survival (OS) was 26.4 months,with 1-,3-, and 5-year survival rates of 79.0%,40.0%, and 29.0%, respectively. In the recent five years (from 2020 to 2024), the median OS improved significantly to 34.1 months compared to 20.0 months from 2016 to 2019 ( P<0.01). Histological subtype analysis showed that the median OS time was 26.7 months for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC, n=855),58.9 months for invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma (IPMC, n=32),and 15.7 months for adenosquamous carcinoma of pancreas (ASCP, n=73) ( P=0.001). Among PDAC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy significantly improved survival (29.1 months vs. 14.4 months, P<0.01);in IPMC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy also extended survival (65.7 months vs. 58.9 months, P=0.047). Although ASCP patients receiving chemotherapy had a longer median OS time than those without (18.8 months vs. 8.9 months),the difference was not statistically significant ( P=0.151). Multivariate Cox regression analysis in PDAC patients indicated that adjuvant chemotherapy, R0 resection, T stage,N stage,and tumor differentiation were independent prognostic factors ( P<0.01). The median OS time by TNM stage was:not reached for stage ⅠA, 51.6 months for ⅠB, 25.5 months for ⅡA, 23.7 months for ⅡB, 23.0 months for Ⅲ, and 14.4 months for Ⅳ. The median OS time for R0,R1-1 mm,and R1-direct resections was 34.1,24.7,and 15.7 months,respectively ( P<0.01). Conclusion:Adjuvant chemotherapy,R0 resection,tumor stage,and differentiation are independent prognostic factors for pancreatic body and tail cancer.
3.From Gene Expression to Transcriptome-wide Association Study: Development and Comparison of Methodology
Kun FANG ; Guozhuang LI ; Linting WANG ; Qing LI ; Kexin XU ; Lina ZHAO ; Zhihong WU ; Jianguo ZHANG ; Nan WU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(1):223-229
Over the past two decades, genome-wide association study(GWAS) has identified numerous genetic variants and loci associated with heritable diseases. With the gradual maturation and saturation of GWAS methodologies, transcriptome-wide association study(TWAS) offers a novel perspective by linkinggenetic phenotypes to gene expression levels. By integrating TWAS with other multi-omics analyses, researchers can gain a deeper understanding of heritable diseases. This article provides an overview of recent groundbreaking and representative TWAS methods and tools, analyzes their strengths and limitations, and discusses future trends in TWAS development.
4.Mechanism Exploration of Doxorubicin and Sepsis Induced Myocardial Injury: Differences and Convergences
Tao ZHANG ; Zihan NAN ; Lixia LIU ; Jiaqi LIU ; Xiukai CHEN ; Xiaoting WANG ; Suwen SU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(1):23-32
Doxorubicin (DOX)-induced cardiotoxicity and sepsis-induced myocardial injury (SIMI) represent significant clinical challenges in patients undergoing chemotherapy, sharing a common pathological basis of oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction. Ferroptosis, an iron-dependent form of regulated cell death driven by lipid peroxidation, has recently been shown to play a critical role in DOX-induced cardiotoxicity and lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced SIMI. This article systematically reviews the mechanisms underlying myocardial injury caused by DOX and sepsis, identifying ferroptosis as a central common pathway. DOX triggers a burst of reactive oxygen species within mitochondria and inhibits glutathione peroxidase 4 (GPX4) activity through redox cycling of its quinone group and high-affinity accumulation in mitochondrial cardiolipin. LPS, by activating pattern recognition receptors and related inflammatory signaling pathways, provokes a cytokine storm and mitochondrial dysfunction. Both can disrupt the core regulatory axis of cysteine-glutathione (GSH)-GPX4, synergistically promoting ferroptosis in cardiomyocytes. Moreover, epigenetic regulation plays a key role in DOX- and LPS-induced cardiomyocyte ferroptosis and may serve as a promising therapeutic target. A deeper understanding of the ferroptosis mechanism and its epigenetic regulatory network in the synergistic injury induced by DOX and sepsis is of great importance for developing novel strategies to mitigate chemotherapy-related cardiotoxicity and improve outcomes in cancer patients with concurrent infections.
5.Phenotypic distribution and population genetic frequency analysis of ABO and Rh blood group antigens among voluntary blood donors in Yantai
Hewei SONG ; Xiaojun ZHANG ; Qun XU ; Xiangzhong LIU ; Nan GUO ; Di SUN
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2026;39(1):69-75
Objective: To investigate the distribution characteristics of ABO and Rh blood group antigen phenotypes among blood donors in the Yantai, Shandong. Methods: Blood samples from 310 180 voluntary blood donors in Yantai collected from January 2019 to December 2023 were tested for ABO and Rh blood group antigens using standard serological methods. RhD-negative samples were further typed for C, c, E, and e antigens. Population genetic analysis of blood groups was performed: allele frequencies were inferred from ABO phenotypes, and Rh allele/haplotype frequencies were estimated based on the proportion of RhD-negative donors and CcEe antigen typing, followed by Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium testing. Results: The phenotypic distribution frequency of ABO blood groups was B(32.72%)>O(28.93%)>A(27.65%)>AB(10.70%). The inferred allele frequencies were r(53.74%)>q(24.78%)>p(21.48%), consistent with Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (P>0.05). A total of 1 872 Rh-negative donors (0.603%) were identified. The most common Rh phenotypes were ccdee (59.56%) and Ccdee (30.18%). The distribution of Rh antigen phenotypes deviated significantly from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (χ
=37.15, P<0.001), with the cde haplotype showing the highest frequency. There was no statistically significant difference in ABO blood group distribution between RhD-positive and RhD-negative donors (P>0.05). Conclusion: The ABO blood group distribution among voluntary blood donors in Yantai is generally stable and consistent with population genetic equilibrium, whereas the Rh antigen phenotype distribution deviates from equilibrium, indicating potential underlying genetic structural differences.
6.Correlation Analysis of Huanglian Jiedu Wan on Syndrome Improvement and Clinical Biomarkers of "Excess Heat-Toxicity" Based on Machine Learning Model
Qi LI ; Keke LUO ; Baolin BIAN ; Hongyu YU ; Mengxiao WANG ; Mengyao TIAN ; Wen XIA ; Yuan MA ; Xinfang ZHANG ; Pengyue LI ; Nan SI ; Hongjie WANG ; Yanyan ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(8):162-173
ObjectiveThis paper aims to find the identified and validated clinical biomarker data building upon a clinical study of early-phase phase Ⅱ and investigate the correlation analysis of Huanglian Jiedu Wan on syndrome improvement and clinical biomarkers in the treatment of "excess heat-toxicity" based on a machine learning model. Additionally, the effective prediction of clinical biomarker values for the main symptoms of the "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome was assessed. MethodsA total of 229 patients meeting the inclusion criteria for "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome were randomly divided into the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group and the placebo group. Syndrome score transition matrices were constructed for the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group and the placebo group based on three main symptoms of "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome, such as oral ulcers, sore throat, and gum swelling and pain. Data from the patients with these three syndromes were also integrated for an overall analysis. The corresponding syndrome score transition matrices were further constructed to visualize symptom change trends of the patients in the two groups via heatmaps. Based on the identified and validated clinical biomarkers related to inflammation, oxidative stress, and energy metabolism in the early phase, Spearman correlation analysis was employed to analyze and evaluate the associations between clinical biomarkers and syndrome improvement. Key clinical biomarkers reflecting the effect of Huanglian Jiedu Wan were screened through the comparison of differences between groups. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was used to develop a prediction model for main symptom classification, with classification performance evaluated through 10-fold cross-validation. Feature importance analysis was applied to identify variables with the greatest contribution to the prediction result. ResultsThe syndrome transition matrix results indicated that the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group showed a superior effect to the placebo group in improving oral ulcers, sore throat, and overall symptoms, with significant effects observed especially in sore throat and overall symptom analyses (P<0.01). Spearman correlation analysis revealed that several clinical biomarkers positively correlated with "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome and its main symptom improvement, were also called "heat-related biomarkers", including succinic acid, α-ketoglutaric acid, glycine, lactic acid, adenosine monophosphate (AMP), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interferon-γ (IFN-γ), interleukin-1β (IL-1β), interleukin-4 (IL-4), interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-8 (IL-8), interleukin-10 (IL-10), and so on. Conversely, clinical biomarkers negatively correlated with symptom severity, were also called "heat-clearing related biomarkers" after administration of Huanglian Jiedu Wan, including malic acid, fumaric acid, cis-aconitic acid, adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), IL-1β, IL-4, IL-8, succinic acid, and citric acid. The XGBoost classification model using all 52 biomarkers as variables achieved an average test accuracy of 0.754 and an average F1 score of 0.777. Feature importance analysis identified the scores of glutamic acid in saliva and IL-6 were the highest in all the variables, with importance scores of 0.081 and 0.080, respectively. After screening out 14 key variables and optimizing the parameters, model performance improved to an average accuracy of 0.758 and an F1 score of 0.798. Feature importance analysis further determined that the glutamic acid in saliva and IL-6 showed obvious changes after screening the variables, confirming the good syndrome prediction ability of the model constructed by these key clinical biomarkers. ConclusionThis study systematically elucidates the correlation between syndrome improvement and clinical biomarkers of Huanglian Jiedu Wan in the treatment of "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome. An XGBoost classification model based on key clinical biomarkers is successfully established, achieving effective prediction of the symptoms related to the "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome such as oral ulcers and sore throat and providing a new insight for objective identification of traditional Chinese medicine syndromes.
7.Correlation Analysis of Huanglian Jiedu Wan on Syndrome Improvement and Clinical Biomarkers of "Excess Heat-Toxicity" Based on Machine Learning Model
Qi LI ; Keke LUO ; Baolin BIAN ; Hongyu YU ; Mengxiao WANG ; Mengyao TIAN ; Wen XIA ; Yuan MA ; Xinfang ZHANG ; Pengyue LI ; Nan SI ; Hongjie WANG ; Yanyan ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(8):162-173
ObjectiveThis paper aims to find the identified and validated clinical biomarker data building upon a clinical study of early-phase phase Ⅱ and investigate the correlation analysis of Huanglian Jiedu Wan on syndrome improvement and clinical biomarkers in the treatment of "excess heat-toxicity" based on a machine learning model. Additionally, the effective prediction of clinical biomarker values for the main symptoms of the "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome was assessed. MethodsA total of 229 patients meeting the inclusion criteria for "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome were randomly divided into the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group and the placebo group. Syndrome score transition matrices were constructed for the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group and the placebo group based on three main symptoms of "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome, such as oral ulcers, sore throat, and gum swelling and pain. Data from the patients with these three syndromes were also integrated for an overall analysis. The corresponding syndrome score transition matrices were further constructed to visualize symptom change trends of the patients in the two groups via heatmaps. Based on the identified and validated clinical biomarkers related to inflammation, oxidative stress, and energy metabolism in the early phase, Spearman correlation analysis was employed to analyze and evaluate the associations between clinical biomarkers and syndrome improvement. Key clinical biomarkers reflecting the effect of Huanglian Jiedu Wan were screened through the comparison of differences between groups. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was used to develop a prediction model for main symptom classification, with classification performance evaluated through 10-fold cross-validation. Feature importance analysis was applied to identify variables with the greatest contribution to the prediction result. ResultsThe syndrome transition matrix results indicated that the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group showed a superior effect to the placebo group in improving oral ulcers, sore throat, and overall symptoms, with significant effects observed especially in sore throat and overall symptom analyses (P<0.01). Spearman correlation analysis revealed that several clinical biomarkers positively correlated with "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome and its main symptom improvement, were also called "heat-related biomarkers", including succinic acid, α-ketoglutaric acid, glycine, lactic acid, adenosine monophosphate (AMP), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interferon-γ (IFN-γ), interleukin-1β (IL-1β), interleukin-4 (IL-4), interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-8 (IL-8), interleukin-10 (IL-10), and so on. Conversely, clinical biomarkers negatively correlated with symptom severity, were also called "heat-clearing related biomarkers" after administration of Huanglian Jiedu Wan, including malic acid, fumaric acid, cis-aconitic acid, adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), IL-1β, IL-4, IL-8, succinic acid, and citric acid. The XGBoost classification model using all 52 biomarkers as variables achieved an average test accuracy of 0.754 and an average F1 score of 0.777. Feature importance analysis identified the scores of glutamic acid in saliva and IL-6 were the highest in all the variables, with importance scores of 0.081 and 0.080, respectively. After screening out 14 key variables and optimizing the parameters, model performance improved to an average accuracy of 0.758 and an F1 score of 0.798. Feature importance analysis further determined that the glutamic acid in saliva and IL-6 showed obvious changes after screening the variables, confirming the good syndrome prediction ability of the model constructed by these key clinical biomarkers. ConclusionThis study systematically elucidates the correlation between syndrome improvement and clinical biomarkers of Huanglian Jiedu Wan in the treatment of "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome. An XGBoost classification model based on key clinical biomarkers is successfully established, achieving effective prediction of the symptoms related to the "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome such as oral ulcers and sore throat and providing a new insight for objective identification of traditional Chinese medicine syndromes.
8.Effect and Mechanism of Liangyi Paste on Hepatic Lipid Deposition in Naturally Aged Mice with High-fat Diet via Cuproptosis/Oxidative Stress Pathway
Meiling ZHANG ; Yuanguang DONG ; Xiaofei SUN ; Jiaxin WANG ; Yu LIU ; Jingxuan ZHU ; Qun WANG ; Nan SONG ; Guoyuan SUI ; Lianqun JIA
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(9):91-99
ObjectiveTaking the cuproptosis/oxidative stress pathway as the entry point, this study investigated the effect and mechanism of Liangyi Paste on hepatic lipid deposition in naturally aged mice fed with a high-fat diet. MethodsAfter adaptive feeding, 80 ten-week-old male C57BL/6 mice were used. Thirty of them were randomly divided into three groups (10 mice per group): The 12-month-old control group (12MCON), the 15-month-old control group (15MCON), and the 15-month-old group with a high-fat diet (15MHFD). The 12MCON and 15MCON groups were continuously fed a standard diet, while the 15MHFD group started receiving a high-fat diet at 12 months of age. Tissue samples were collected at the corresponding time points for each group. The remaining 50 mice were randomly divided into five groups (10 mice per group): the 20-month-old control group (20MCON), the model group, and the low-, medium-, and high-dose Liangyi Paste groups (2.91 , 5.82 , 11.64 g·kg-1·d-1, respectively). The 20MCON group was continuously fed a standard diet, while the other groups started receiving a high-fat diet at 15 months of age. At 18 months of age, the Liangyi Paste groups were administered the corresponding doses of Liangyi Paste by gavage, while the 20MCON and model groups were given an equal volume of saline by gavage. After 8 weeks of continuous gavage (when the mice reached 20 months of age), tissue samples were collected. Hepatic TG levels were measured using assay kits; liver histology and lipid deposition were observed via hematoxylin-eosin (HE) and oil red O staining; reactive oxygen species (ROS) were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA); Cu2+, superoxide dismutase (SOD), and malondialdehyde (MDA) levels were measured by colorimetry; mRNA and protein expression of genes related to cuproptosis and oxidative stress pathways were analyzed by Real-time polymerase chain reaction(Real-time PCR) and Wes automated protein expression system. ResultsCompared with 12MCON, the 15MCON group showed significantly increased hepatic TG, Cu2+, ROS, and MDA levels (P<0.01), decreased SOD (P<0.01), hepatocyte swelling, and disordered arrangement. The mRNA and protein levels of ferredoxin 1 (FDX1), dihydrolipoamide S-acetyltransferase (DLAT), heat shock protein 70 (HSP70), dihydrolipoamide dehydrogenase (DLD), pyruvate dehydrogenase E1 subunit-β (PDHB), nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2), and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ (PPARγ) were significantly elevated (P<0.05, P<0.01). Compared with 15MCON group, the 15MHFD and 20MCON groups exhibited further increases in TG, Cu2+, ROS, and MDA (P<0.01), reduced SOD (P<0.01), and aggravated hepatocyte swelling and disorder. There were increased lipid droplets with mild vacuolization in the 15MHFD group, and no significant lipid deposition was observed in the 20MCON group. FDX1, DLAT, HSP70, DLD, PDHB, Nrf2, and PPARγ mRNA and protein levels were significantly increased (P<0.05, P<0.01). Compared with 20MCON group, the model group demonstrated markedly elevated TG, Cu2+, ROS, and MDA (P<0.01), reduced SOD (P<0.01), severe hepatic steatosis, and upregulated expression of FDX1, DLAT, HSP70, DLD, PDHB, Nrf2, and PPARγ mRNA and proteins (P<0.05, P<0.01). All abnormalities were significantly reversed after Liangyi Paste treatment. ConclusionLiangyi paste can ameliorate hepatic lipid deposition in naturally aged mice with a high-fat diet by modulating the cuproptosis/oxidative stress pathway.
9.Analysis of components absorbed into blood and brain of Lithocarpus litseifolius leaves
Huan LIU ; Zirong YI ; Ting HUANG ; Xiuhong LIU ; Yunyao YE ; Yuming MA ; Mengqi HU ; Nan ZHANG ; Wenhao YANG ; Yang LIU ; Guopeng WANG
China Pharmacy 2026;37(7):889-894
OBJECTIVE To analyze the prototype components absorbed into blood and brain of Lithocarpus litseifolius leaves, so as to provide a reference for clarifying the pharmacological material basis of its prevention and treatment of central nervous system dis eases. METHODS The ethanol extract of L. litseifolius leaves, as well as the gastric lavage fluid and perfusion solution were prepared. Using rats as subjects, plasma samples of intestinal wall metabolism, intestinal flora metabolism and hepatic metabolism were prepared via in situ intestinal perfusion and closed intestinal loop method; while comprehensive metabolic plasma samples, brain tissue samples, and cerebrospinal fluid samples were collected after intragastric administration. UPLC-HRMS technology was utilized to analyze and identify chemical components and prototype components absorbed into blood and brain of L. litseifolius leaves. RESULTS A total of 66 chemical constituents were identified in L. litseifolius leaves, primarily consisting of flavonoids, organic acids, and others. A total of 16, 13, 11, and 5 prototype components were identified in intestinal wall metabolism, intestinal flora metabolism, hepatic metabolism, and comprehensive metabolic plasma samples, respectively. Additionally, 4 prototype components were detected in brain tissue and 9 in cerebrospinal fluid. Phloridzin, trilobatin, phloretin-2- O -malonyl hexoside, and phloretin were identified as common components across all sample types. CONCLUSIONS Prototype components absorbed into blood and brain of L. litseifolius leaves, such as phloridzin, trilobatin, phloretin, and other components may serve as the pharmacological material basis for their therapeutic effects on central nervous system diseases.
10.Establishment and validation of a model for femoral head necrosis after internal fixation of femoral neck fracture using logistic regression and SHAP analysis
Long LIAO ; Zepeng ZHAO ; Zongyuan LI ; Qinglong YU ; Tao ZHANG ; Jinyuan TANG ; Nan YE ; Han XU ; Bo SHI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(3):626-633
BACKGROUND:The most common complication of traumatic femoral neck fractures after internal fixation is femoral head necrosis.Currently,many studies have reported on the risk factors that affect the occurrence and development of postoperative femoral head necrosis,but there is still a lack of tools to predict the risk of femoral head necrosis after internal fixation of femoral neck fractures.OBJECTIVE:To develop a predictive model that estimates the risk of femoral head necrosis shortly after patients with femoral neck fractures receive cannulated screw internal fixation.METHODS:A retrospective analysis reviewed clinical records of 172 patients who underwent cannulated screw internal fixation for femoral neck fractures at Department of Orthopedics of Mianyang Central Hospital from January 2013 to June 2023.Patients were categorized into two groups based on the presence or absence of femoral head necrosis within one year post-operation:the necrosis group and the non-necrosis group.Univariate analysis,Lasso regression,and multivariate Logistic regression techniques were employed to identify the determinants of femoral head necrosis.A nomogram prediction model was constructed using R language's"rms"package,version 4.0.The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the discriminatory ability of the model.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model,and the decision curve analysis was used to determine its clinical application benefits.Internal validation of the study was conducted using the Bootstrap method,involving 1 000 repeated samplings.To delve deeper into the primary factors influencing femoral head necrosis post-internal fixation of the femoral neck,this paper employed the SHAP method for data set analysis.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The risk factors leading to femoral head necrosis in the short term after cannulated screw fixation of femoral neck fractures include:smoking,diabetes,Garden classification,fracture line location,reduction quality,age,and operation time.(2)The prediction model demonstrated robust performance,evidenced by an area under the curve of 0.940(95%Confidence Interval:0.903 to 0.977),indicating a high level of prediction accuracy.The model achieved a sensitivity of 90.2%and a specificity of 87.6%,indicating that its diagnostic performance was stable.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test yielded a chi-square value of 6.593 with a P-value of 0.581,confirming that the model's predictions closely align with the observed outcomes.(3)The calibration curve of the model also performed well,and its overall trend was very close to the ideal curve,further proving the high accuracy of the model.(4)The internal validation was carried out by the Bootstrap method with 1 000 repeated samplings,and the area under the curve of the model internal validation was still as high as 0.939,proving that the model had good stability.(5)Through the decision curve,it is found that within the probability threshold range of 1%to 92%,the model can obtain the maximum net benefit value.(6)The SHAP analysis results show that among the risk factors analyzed in this study,the location of the fracture line serves as the most significant predictor of femoral head necrosis following internal fixation with cannulated screws in femoral neck fractures,and subcapital fractures are extremely prone to femoral head necrosis after surgery.(7)It is concluded that the validated prediction model demonstrates strong discriminative power and reliability,offering practical clinical utility.It serves as a useful reference tool for short-term risk assessment of femoral head necrosis following internal fixation of femoral neck fractures.

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