1.Establishment and validation of a model for femoral head necrosis after internal fixation of femoral neck fracture using logistic regression and SHAP analysis
Long LIAO ; Zepeng ZHAO ; Zongyuan LI ; Qinglong YU ; Tao ZHANG ; Jinyuan TANG ; Nan YE ; Han XU ; Bo SHI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(3):626-633
BACKGROUND:The most common complication of traumatic femoral neck fractures after internal fixation is femoral head necrosis.Currently,many studies have reported on the risk factors that affect the occurrence and development of postoperative femoral head necrosis,but there is still a lack of tools to predict the risk of femoral head necrosis after internal fixation of femoral neck fractures.OBJECTIVE:To develop a predictive model that estimates the risk of femoral head necrosis shortly after patients with femoral neck fractures receive cannulated screw internal fixation.METHODS:A retrospective analysis reviewed clinical records of 172 patients who underwent cannulated screw internal fixation for femoral neck fractures at Department of Orthopedics of Mianyang Central Hospital from January 2013 to June 2023.Patients were categorized into two groups based on the presence or absence of femoral head necrosis within one year post-operation:the necrosis group and the non-necrosis group.Univariate analysis,Lasso regression,and multivariate Logistic regression techniques were employed to identify the determinants of femoral head necrosis.A nomogram prediction model was constructed using R language's"rms"package,version 4.0.The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the discriminatory ability of the model.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model,and the decision curve analysis was used to determine its clinical application benefits.Internal validation of the study was conducted using the Bootstrap method,involving 1 000 repeated samplings.To delve deeper into the primary factors influencing femoral head necrosis post-internal fixation of the femoral neck,this paper employed the SHAP method for data set analysis.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The risk factors leading to femoral head necrosis in the short term after cannulated screw fixation of femoral neck fractures include:smoking,diabetes,Garden classification,fracture line location,reduction quality,age,and operation time.(2)The prediction model demonstrated robust performance,evidenced by an area under the curve of 0.940(95%Confidence Interval:0.903 to 0.977),indicating a high level of prediction accuracy.The model achieved a sensitivity of 90.2%and a specificity of 87.6%,indicating that its diagnostic performance was stable.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test yielded a chi-square value of 6.593 with a P-value of 0.581,confirming that the model's predictions closely align with the observed outcomes.(3)The calibration curve of the model also performed well,and its overall trend was very close to the ideal curve,further proving the high accuracy of the model.(4)The internal validation was carried out by the Bootstrap method with 1 000 repeated samplings,and the area under the curve of the model internal validation was still as high as 0.939,proving that the model had good stability.(5)Through the decision curve,it is found that within the probability threshold range of 1%to 92%,the model can obtain the maximum net benefit value.(6)The SHAP analysis results show that among the risk factors analyzed in this study,the location of the fracture line serves as the most significant predictor of femoral head necrosis following internal fixation with cannulated screws in femoral neck fractures,and subcapital fractures are extremely prone to femoral head necrosis after surgery.(7)It is concluded that the validated prediction model demonstrates strong discriminative power and reliability,offering practical clinical utility.It serves as a useful reference tool for short-term risk assessment of femoral head necrosis following internal fixation of femoral neck fractures.
2.Establishment and validation of a model for femoral head necrosis after internal fixation of femoral neck fracture using logistic regression and SHAP analysis
Long LIAO ; Zepeng ZHAO ; Zongyuan LI ; Qinglong YU ; Tao ZHANG ; Jinyuan TANG ; Nan YE ; Han XU ; Bo SHI
Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research 2026;30(3):626-633
BACKGROUND:The most common complication of traumatic femoral neck fractures after internal fixation is femoral head necrosis.Currently,many studies have reported on the risk factors that affect the occurrence and development of postoperative femoral head necrosis,but there is still a lack of tools to predict the risk of femoral head necrosis after internal fixation of femoral neck fractures.OBJECTIVE:To develop a predictive model that estimates the risk of femoral head necrosis shortly after patients with femoral neck fractures receive cannulated screw internal fixation.METHODS:A retrospective analysis reviewed clinical records of 172 patients who underwent cannulated screw internal fixation for femoral neck fractures at Department of Orthopedics of Mianyang Central Hospital from January 2013 to June 2023.Patients were categorized into two groups based on the presence or absence of femoral head necrosis within one year post-operation:the necrosis group and the non-necrosis group.Univariate analysis,Lasso regression,and multivariate Logistic regression techniques were employed to identify the determinants of femoral head necrosis.A nomogram prediction model was constructed using R language's"rms"package,version 4.0.The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the discriminatory ability of the model.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model,and the decision curve analysis was used to determine its clinical application benefits.Internal validation of the study was conducted using the Bootstrap method,involving 1 000 repeated samplings.To delve deeper into the primary factors influencing femoral head necrosis post-internal fixation of the femoral neck,this paper employed the SHAP method for data set analysis.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)The risk factors leading to femoral head necrosis in the short term after cannulated screw fixation of femoral neck fractures include:smoking,diabetes,Garden classification,fracture line location,reduction quality,age,and operation time.(2)The prediction model demonstrated robust performance,evidenced by an area under the curve of 0.940(95%Confidence Interval:0.903 to 0.977),indicating a high level of prediction accuracy.The model achieved a sensitivity of 90.2%and a specificity of 87.6%,indicating that its diagnostic performance was stable.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test yielded a chi-square value of 6.593 with a P-value of 0.581,confirming that the model's predictions closely align with the observed outcomes.(3)The calibration curve of the model also performed well,and its overall trend was very close to the ideal curve,further proving the high accuracy of the model.(4)The internal validation was carried out by the Bootstrap method with 1 000 repeated samplings,and the area under the curve of the model internal validation was still as high as 0.939,proving that the model had good stability.(5)Through the decision curve,it is found that within the probability threshold range of 1%to 92%,the model can obtain the maximum net benefit value.(6)The SHAP analysis results show that among the risk factors analyzed in this study,the location of the fracture line serves as the most significant predictor of femoral head necrosis following internal fixation with cannulated screws in femoral neck fractures,and subcapital fractures are extremely prone to femoral head necrosis after surgery.(7)It is concluded that the validated prediction model demonstrates strong discriminative power and reliability,offering practical clinical utility.It serves as a useful reference tool for short-term risk assessment of femoral head necrosis following internal fixation of femoral neck fractures.
3.Impact of infusion of red blood cell suspension at different perioperative periods in patients with valvular heart disease: A propensity score matching study
Shan XU ; Bo FU ; Ao WEI ; Qian ZHANG ; Yaqing CAO ; Nan JIANG ; Zhigang GUO
Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery 2026;33(05):772-777
Objective To investigate the impact of red blood cell suspension infusion across various perioperative periods on patients with valvular heart disease. Methods The patients with valvular heart disease admitted to Tianjin Chest Hospital from 2018 to 2020 were selected. Based on the timing of perioperative red cell suspension infusion, patients were categorized into three groups: a group 1 receiving intraoperative red cell suspension infusion, a group 2 receiving red cell suspension infusion within 24 hours after entering the ICU, and a group 3 receiving red cell suspension infusion at both time points. The laboratory results, perioperative blood component infusion volume, and other relevant parameters were retrospectively analyzed. After propensity score matching, the differences in different variables among the three groups were compared. Results After propensity score matching, 102 patients were enrolled, including 52 males and 50 females, with an average age of (61.74±10.58) years. There were 34 patients in each group. The preoperative hemoglobin (Hb) value of the group 2 was significantly higher than that of the group 1 and the group 3, and the amount of red cell suspension and autoblood transfusion was the lowest (P<0.05). Group 1 had the highest postoperative Hb, as well as the highest Hb and hematocrit (HCT) levels within 24 hours post-surgery (P<0.05). The group 1 had the lowest plasma, platelet and cryoprecipitate infusion volumes, and the shortest cardiopulmonary bypass time, aortic occlusion time, postoperative ICU stay and hospital stay, and the least blood loss and total drainage volume (P<0.05). The difference between postoperative and preoperative Hb (△Hb1) was highest in group 1 (P<0.05). Conclusion For patients with valvular heart disease, intraoperative-only infusion of red blood cell suspension is associated with a better prognosis at discharge and during follow-up.
4.Role of PI3K/Akt Pathway in Epirubicin Resistance in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Explored Through Transcriptomic Analysis
Lingshan NAN ; Xiaomin WANG ; Xi ZUO ; Haiming LI ; Dong CHEN ; Xiaohui YIN ; Ganlin ZHANG
Cancer Research on Prevention and Treatment 2026;53(5):339-348
Objective To establish an epirubicin (EPI)-resistant murine triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) (4T1/EPI) cell line and evaluate its biological characteristics and drug resistance. Methods The EPI-resistant cell line 4T1/EPI was developed through intermittent induction with gradually increasing EPI concentrations in vitro. Morphological changes were observed under an inverted microscope. Drug resistance index (MTT assay), cell doubling time (CCK-8 assay), and migration ability (wound healing assay) were evaluated. Western blot was used to detect the expression of drug resistance-related proteins. Transcriptome sequencing and KEGG pathway enrichment analysis were performed to identify the pathways and targets involved in EPI resistance, followed by experimental validation. Results The 4T1 cells eventually grew normally in a medium containing 100 ng/mL EPI, confirming the establishment of the 4T1/EPI resistant cell line. After stable resistance was acquired, morphological alterations were observed. Compared with their parental 4T1 cells, 4T1/EPI cells showed significantly prolonged doubling time (P<0.01) and enhanced migration ability (P<0.05). Expression levels of drug resistance-related proteins MDR1, MRP1 (P<0.01), and ABCG2 (P<0.05) were elevated in 4T1/EPI cells. In vivo models also demonstrated significant EPI resistance in 4T1/EPI tumors in terms of tumor weight and volume. Transcriptome sequencing highlighted the involvement of the PI3K/Akt signaling pathway and ABC transporter pathway. Validation experiments showed the upregulation of Erbb3, Egfr, PI3K, and Akt (P<0.05) and significant downregulation of Fgfr1 (P<0.01) in 4T1/EPI cells. Conclusion The EPI-resistant TNBC cell line 4T1/EPI was successfully established, exhibiting significant resistance in vitro and in vivo. The mechanism may involve the EPI-induced upregulation of Egfr and Erbb3, activating the PI3K/Akt pathway and subsequently enhancing ABC transporter expression.
5.Long-term survival outcomes and prognostic factors following radical resection of pancreatic body and tail cancer:a retrospective analysis of 992 patients
Dong XU ; Yang WU ; Kai ZHANG ; Nan LYU ; Qianqian WANG ; Pengfei WU ; Jie YIN ; Baobao CAI ; Guodong SHI ; Jianzhen LIN ; Yazhou WANG ; Lingdi YIN ; Zipeng LU ; Min TU ; Jianmin CHEN ; Feng GUO ; Jishu WEI ; Junli WU ; Wentao GAO ; Cuncai DAI ; Yi MIAO ; Kuirong JIANG
Chinese Journal of Surgery 2026;64(1):46-54
Objective:To investigate the survival outcomes and prognostic factors in patients undergoing radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer.Methods:A retrospective case series study was conducted on 992 patients who underwent radical resection for pancreatic body and tail cancer at the Pancreatic Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from January 2016 to June 2024. In this study, 577 (58.2%) were male and 415 (41.8%) were female,with an age of (65±9) years (range: 26 to 86 years). Follow-up continued until June 2024. Survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method,and prognostic factors were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models.Results:Among 992 patients,open surgery was the predominant approach (89.1%, 884/992), and radical antegrade modular pancreatosplenectomy (RAMPS) was performed in 317 patients (32.0%). Combined organ resection,venous resection,and arterial resection were performed in 23.5%, 9.3%,and 11.2% of patients,respectively. The rates of R0, R1-1 mm, and R1-direct resections were 49.8% (494/992),41.5% (412/992), and 8.7% (86/992),respectively. Stage ⅡB was the most common TNM stage (32.2%,319/992). A total of 801 patients (80.8%) received adjuvant chemotherapy. The median follow-up period was 32.0(8.8) months(range:3.2 to 105.3 months),during which 508 patients (51.2%) died. The overall median survival (OS) was 26.4 months,with 1-,3-, and 5-year survival rates of 79.0%,40.0%, and 29.0%, respectively. In the recent five years (from 2020 to 2024), the median OS improved significantly to 34.1 months compared to 20.0 months from 2016 to 2019 ( P<0.01). Histological subtype analysis showed that the median OS time was 26.7 months for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC, n=855),58.9 months for invasive intraductal papillary mucinous carcinoma (IPMC, n=32),and 15.7 months for adenosquamous carcinoma of pancreas (ASCP, n=73) ( P=0.001). Among PDAC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy significantly improved survival (29.1 months vs. 14.4 months, P<0.01);in IPMC patients, adjuvant chemotherapy also extended survival (65.7 months vs. 58.9 months, P=0.047). Although ASCP patients receiving chemotherapy had a longer median OS time than those without (18.8 months vs. 8.9 months),the difference was not statistically significant ( P=0.151). Multivariate Cox regression analysis in PDAC patients indicated that adjuvant chemotherapy, R0 resection, T stage,N stage,and tumor differentiation were independent prognostic factors ( P<0.01). The median OS time by TNM stage was:not reached for stage ⅠA, 51.6 months for ⅠB, 25.5 months for ⅡA, 23.7 months for ⅡB, 23.0 months for Ⅲ, and 14.4 months for Ⅳ. The median OS time for R0,R1-1 mm,and R1-direct resections was 34.1,24.7,and 15.7 months,respectively ( P<0.01). Conclusion:Adjuvant chemotherapy,R0 resection,tumor stage,and differentiation are independent prognostic factors for pancreatic body and tail cancer.
6.From Gene Expression to Transcriptome-wide Association Study: Development and Comparison of Methodology
Kun FANG ; Guozhuang LI ; Linting WANG ; Qing LI ; Kexin XU ; Lina ZHAO ; Zhihong WU ; Jianguo ZHANG ; Nan WU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(1):223-229
Over the past two decades, genome-wide association study(GWAS) has identified numerous genetic variants and loci associated with heritable diseases. With the gradual maturation and saturation of GWAS methodologies, transcriptome-wide association study(TWAS) offers a novel perspective by linkinggenetic phenotypes to gene expression levels. By integrating TWAS with other multi-omics analyses, researchers can gain a deeper understanding of heritable diseases. This article provides an overview of recent groundbreaking and representative TWAS methods and tools, analyzes their strengths and limitations, and discusses future trends in TWAS development.
7.Mechanism Exploration of Doxorubicin and Sepsis Induced Myocardial Injury: Differences and Convergences
Tao ZHANG ; Zihan NAN ; Lixia LIU ; Jiaqi LIU ; Xiukai CHEN ; Xiaoting WANG ; Suwen SU
Medical Journal of Peking Union Medical College Hospital 2026;17(1):23-32
Doxorubicin (DOX)-induced cardiotoxicity and sepsis-induced myocardial injury (SIMI) represent significant clinical challenges in patients undergoing chemotherapy, sharing a common pathological basis of oxidative stress and mitochondrial dysfunction. Ferroptosis, an iron-dependent form of regulated cell death driven by lipid peroxidation, has recently been shown to play a critical role in DOX-induced cardiotoxicity and lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced SIMI. This article systematically reviews the mechanisms underlying myocardial injury caused by DOX and sepsis, identifying ferroptosis as a central common pathway. DOX triggers a burst of reactive oxygen species within mitochondria and inhibits glutathione peroxidase 4 (GPX4) activity through redox cycling of its quinone group and high-affinity accumulation in mitochondrial cardiolipin. LPS, by activating pattern recognition receptors and related inflammatory signaling pathways, provokes a cytokine storm and mitochondrial dysfunction. Both can disrupt the core regulatory axis of cysteine-glutathione (GSH)-GPX4, synergistically promoting ferroptosis in cardiomyocytes. Moreover, epigenetic regulation plays a key role in DOX- and LPS-induced cardiomyocyte ferroptosis and may serve as a promising therapeutic target. A deeper understanding of the ferroptosis mechanism and its epigenetic regulatory network in the synergistic injury induced by DOX and sepsis is of great importance for developing novel strategies to mitigate chemotherapy-related cardiotoxicity and improve outcomes in cancer patients with concurrent infections.
8.Phenotypic distribution and population genetic frequency analysis of ABO and Rh blood group antigens among voluntary blood donors in Yantai
Hewei SONG ; Xiaojun ZHANG ; Qun XU ; Xiangzhong LIU ; Nan GUO ; Di SUN
Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion 2026;39(1):69-75
Objective: To investigate the distribution characteristics of ABO and Rh blood group antigen phenotypes among blood donors in the Yantai, Shandong. Methods: Blood samples from 310 180 voluntary blood donors in Yantai collected from January 2019 to December 2023 were tested for ABO and Rh blood group antigens using standard serological methods. RhD-negative samples were further typed for C, c, E, and e antigens. Population genetic analysis of blood groups was performed: allele frequencies were inferred from ABO phenotypes, and Rh allele/haplotype frequencies were estimated based on the proportion of RhD-negative donors and CcEe antigen typing, followed by Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium testing. Results: The phenotypic distribution frequency of ABO blood groups was B(32.72%)>O(28.93%)>A(27.65%)>AB(10.70%). The inferred allele frequencies were r(53.74%)>q(24.78%)>p(21.48%), consistent with Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (P>0.05). A total of 1 872 Rh-negative donors (0.603%) were identified. The most common Rh phenotypes were ccdee (59.56%) and Ccdee (30.18%). The distribution of Rh antigen phenotypes deviated significantly from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (χ
=37.15, P<0.001), with the cde haplotype showing the highest frequency. There was no statistically significant difference in ABO blood group distribution between RhD-positive and RhD-negative donors (P>0.05). Conclusion: The ABO blood group distribution among voluntary blood donors in Yantai is generally stable and consistent with population genetic equilibrium, whereas the Rh antigen phenotype distribution deviates from equilibrium, indicating potential underlying genetic structural differences.
9.Correlation Analysis of Huanglian Jiedu Wan on Syndrome Improvement and Clinical Biomarkers of "Excess Heat-Toxicity" Based on Machine Learning Model
Qi LI ; Keke LUO ; Baolin BIAN ; Hongyu YU ; Mengxiao WANG ; Mengyao TIAN ; Wen XIA ; Yuan MA ; Xinfang ZHANG ; Pengyue LI ; Nan SI ; Hongjie WANG ; Yanyan ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(8):162-173
ObjectiveThis paper aims to find the identified and validated clinical biomarker data building upon a clinical study of early-phase phase Ⅱ and investigate the correlation analysis of Huanglian Jiedu Wan on syndrome improvement and clinical biomarkers in the treatment of "excess heat-toxicity" based on a machine learning model. Additionally, the effective prediction of clinical biomarker values for the main symptoms of the "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome was assessed. MethodsA total of 229 patients meeting the inclusion criteria for "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome were randomly divided into the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group and the placebo group. Syndrome score transition matrices were constructed for the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group and the placebo group based on three main symptoms of "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome, such as oral ulcers, sore throat, and gum swelling and pain. Data from the patients with these three syndromes were also integrated for an overall analysis. The corresponding syndrome score transition matrices were further constructed to visualize symptom change trends of the patients in the two groups via heatmaps. Based on the identified and validated clinical biomarkers related to inflammation, oxidative stress, and energy metabolism in the early phase, Spearman correlation analysis was employed to analyze and evaluate the associations between clinical biomarkers and syndrome improvement. Key clinical biomarkers reflecting the effect of Huanglian Jiedu Wan were screened through the comparison of differences between groups. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was used to develop a prediction model for main symptom classification, with classification performance evaluated through 10-fold cross-validation. Feature importance analysis was applied to identify variables with the greatest contribution to the prediction result. ResultsThe syndrome transition matrix results indicated that the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group showed a superior effect to the placebo group in improving oral ulcers, sore throat, and overall symptoms, with significant effects observed especially in sore throat and overall symptom analyses (P<0.01). Spearman correlation analysis revealed that several clinical biomarkers positively correlated with "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome and its main symptom improvement, were also called "heat-related biomarkers", including succinic acid, α-ketoglutaric acid, glycine, lactic acid, adenosine monophosphate (AMP), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interferon-γ (IFN-γ), interleukin-1β (IL-1β), interleukin-4 (IL-4), interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-8 (IL-8), interleukin-10 (IL-10), and so on. Conversely, clinical biomarkers negatively correlated with symptom severity, were also called "heat-clearing related biomarkers" after administration of Huanglian Jiedu Wan, including malic acid, fumaric acid, cis-aconitic acid, adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), IL-1β, IL-4, IL-8, succinic acid, and citric acid. The XGBoost classification model using all 52 biomarkers as variables achieved an average test accuracy of 0.754 and an average F1 score of 0.777. Feature importance analysis identified the scores of glutamic acid in saliva and IL-6 were the highest in all the variables, with importance scores of 0.081 and 0.080, respectively. After screening out 14 key variables and optimizing the parameters, model performance improved to an average accuracy of 0.758 and an F1 score of 0.798. Feature importance analysis further determined that the glutamic acid in saliva and IL-6 showed obvious changes after screening the variables, confirming the good syndrome prediction ability of the model constructed by these key clinical biomarkers. ConclusionThis study systematically elucidates the correlation between syndrome improvement and clinical biomarkers of Huanglian Jiedu Wan in the treatment of "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome. An XGBoost classification model based on key clinical biomarkers is successfully established, achieving effective prediction of the symptoms related to the "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome such as oral ulcers and sore throat and providing a new insight for objective identification of traditional Chinese medicine syndromes.
10.Correlation Analysis of Huanglian Jiedu Wan on Syndrome Improvement and Clinical Biomarkers of "Excess Heat-Toxicity" Based on Machine Learning Model
Qi LI ; Keke LUO ; Baolin BIAN ; Hongyu YU ; Mengxiao WANG ; Mengyao TIAN ; Wen XIA ; Yuan MA ; Xinfang ZHANG ; Pengyue LI ; Nan SI ; Hongjie WANG ; Yanyan ZHOU
Chinese Journal of Experimental Traditional Medical Formulae 2026;32(8):162-173
ObjectiveThis paper aims to find the identified and validated clinical biomarker data building upon a clinical study of early-phase phase Ⅱ and investigate the correlation analysis of Huanglian Jiedu Wan on syndrome improvement and clinical biomarkers in the treatment of "excess heat-toxicity" based on a machine learning model. Additionally, the effective prediction of clinical biomarker values for the main symptoms of the "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome was assessed. MethodsA total of 229 patients meeting the inclusion criteria for "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome were randomly divided into the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group and the placebo group. Syndrome score transition matrices were constructed for the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group and the placebo group based on three main symptoms of "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome, such as oral ulcers, sore throat, and gum swelling and pain. Data from the patients with these three syndromes were also integrated for an overall analysis. The corresponding syndrome score transition matrices were further constructed to visualize symptom change trends of the patients in the two groups via heatmaps. Based on the identified and validated clinical biomarkers related to inflammation, oxidative stress, and energy metabolism in the early phase, Spearman correlation analysis was employed to analyze and evaluate the associations between clinical biomarkers and syndrome improvement. Key clinical biomarkers reflecting the effect of Huanglian Jiedu Wan were screened through the comparison of differences between groups. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was used to develop a prediction model for main symptom classification, with classification performance evaluated through 10-fold cross-validation. Feature importance analysis was applied to identify variables with the greatest contribution to the prediction result. ResultsThe syndrome transition matrix results indicated that the Huanglian Jiedu Wan group showed a superior effect to the placebo group in improving oral ulcers, sore throat, and overall symptoms, with significant effects observed especially in sore throat and overall symptom analyses (P<0.01). Spearman correlation analysis revealed that several clinical biomarkers positively correlated with "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome and its main symptom improvement, were also called "heat-related biomarkers", including succinic acid, α-ketoglutaric acid, glycine, lactic acid, adenosine monophosphate (AMP), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), interferon-γ (IFN-γ), interleukin-1β (IL-1β), interleukin-4 (IL-4), interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-8 (IL-8), interleukin-10 (IL-10), and so on. Conversely, clinical biomarkers negatively correlated with symptom severity, were also called "heat-clearing related biomarkers" after administration of Huanglian Jiedu Wan, including malic acid, fumaric acid, cis-aconitic acid, adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), IL-1β, IL-4, IL-8, succinic acid, and citric acid. The XGBoost classification model using all 52 biomarkers as variables achieved an average test accuracy of 0.754 and an average F1 score of 0.777. Feature importance analysis identified the scores of glutamic acid in saliva and IL-6 were the highest in all the variables, with importance scores of 0.081 and 0.080, respectively. After screening out 14 key variables and optimizing the parameters, model performance improved to an average accuracy of 0.758 and an F1 score of 0.798. Feature importance analysis further determined that the glutamic acid in saliva and IL-6 showed obvious changes after screening the variables, confirming the good syndrome prediction ability of the model constructed by these key clinical biomarkers. ConclusionThis study systematically elucidates the correlation between syndrome improvement and clinical biomarkers of Huanglian Jiedu Wan in the treatment of "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome. An XGBoost classification model based on key clinical biomarkers is successfully established, achieving effective prediction of the symptoms related to the "excess heat-toxicity" syndrome such as oral ulcers and sore throat and providing a new insight for objective identification of traditional Chinese medicine syndromes.

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